Mets Notes: Diaz, Third Base, Alonso
Edwin Díaz threw a bullpen session on the back fields at Mets camp today, opening his Spring Training build-up. The two-time All-Star told reporters he had no obstructions over the winter after missing the entire 2023 campaign.
“It was my normal offseason, I did my normal routine,” Díaz told reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic). “I won’t be afraid to jump, to run. … I feel great.” That was the general expectation, as Díaz considered making a push to return at the end of last season before shutting things down with New York well out of contention.
The Mets are hopeful of a better showing than last year’s 75-87 performance. Díaz’s return is one of the reasons for optimism that they can hang around the playoff mix. He was the best reliever in baseball in 2022, when he struck out more than half the hitters he faced en route to a career-low 1.31 ERA across 62 innings.
While the team is hopeful of at least remaining in the Wild Card race, they’ve opted against making another all-in push for 2024. President of baseball operations David Stearns has pointed to the upcoming season as something of a evaluative year which they expect to serve as a stepping stone to a full-fledged run in 2025. That’s perhaps most evident in the team’s approach at third base and designated hitter. They’ve left the door ajar to making a run at a veteran DH while suggesting that the likelier outcome is giving playing time to Brett Baty and Mark Vientos to gauge whether they can serve important roles on the ’25 team.
Stearns left open the possibility for “some level of competition” among the in-house options at the hot corner this afternoon (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). Baty enters camp as the heavy favorite for the starting job despite his disappointing season. The former first-round pick and top prospect hit .212/.275/.323 with nine home runs in 389 plate appearances over his first full big league campaign. New York sent Baty to Triple-A for a few weeks in August as his struggles mounted. He raked in that brief minor league stint but again struggled after being recalled in September.
New York hasn’t done much to bring in serious competition for Baty this offseason. Stearns mentioned Vientos, Joey Wendle and Zack Short as others who could pick up playing time at the hot corner. Vientos is regarded as a below-average defender who is better served at first base or DH. He’d see the bulk of the DH reps unless the Mets somewhat surprisingly add a veteran bat like J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler in the coming weeks. Wendle inked a $2MM free agent deal after hitting .212/.248/.306 in his second season with the Marlins. Short was a November waiver claim out of Detroit.
While Baty’s season could go in a number of directions, the Mets can feel safe about getting excellent production out of the other corner infield spot. Pete Alonso enters his platform year as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers. Last month, he and the team agreed to a $20.5MM salary to avoid a hearing in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.
Throughout the offseason, the Mets have downplayed the chances of discussing a deal beyond the 2024 campaign. Stearns reiterated that the club didn’t have much expectation of signing Alonso to an extension. He called it “probably the most likely outcome” that the three-time All-Star hit the open market (link via Chuck King of the Associated Press). “Look, when you have a really talented player, who’s really good, who’s entering his final year of club control, who happens to be represented by Scott Boras, these things generally end up into free agency and we understand that,” he added.
The Mets have expressed confidence they could retain Alonso after he hits the open market, following the process of fellow Boras Corporation client Brandon Nimmo. Assuming he posts a typical platform year, Alonso should handily surpass the $162MM guarantee which Nimmo secured and could search for a contract approaching or exceeding $250MM.
Stearns: Mets Plan To Add An Outfielder, Stick With Internal Options At Third Base
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Tim Britton as well as both Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post) today about the club’s plans headed into the Winter Meetings, with a particular focus on potential offensive additions. Stearns indicated that the club’s main focus on the positional side of things is finding an addition to outfield who would play regularly. That’s hardly a surprise, as New York has been connected to recently-posted KBO star Jung Hoo Lee and veteran center fielder Michael A. Taylor in recent days.
After shipping veteran corner bats Mark Canha and Tommy Pham out at the trade deadline over the summer, the club relied primarily on a mix of DJ Stewart, Jeff McNeil, Tim Locastro, and Rafael Ortega to flank center fielder Brandon Nimmo in the corners. Locastro and Ortega have since become free agents, and while Stewart appears ticketed for a bench role next season. Veteran outfielder Starling Marte is expected to patrol right field on a regular basis in 2024 after spending much of the second half on the injured list due to groin issues.
That leaves one outfield spot left to fill, as Stearns acknowledged to reporters today that the club’s preference is for the versatile McNeil to act as the club’s regular second baseman next season. Lee and Taylor could be of particular interest to the Mets if the club hopes to improve its outfield defense, as either addition could allow Nimmo to slide over to left field while taking over in center. Speculatively speaking, the likes of Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader could be other glove-first options worth considering for the Mets this offseason.
If the Mets secure an additional regular for their outfield as planned, it would appear their infield mix is relatively set for the 2024 season. Stearns has previously indicated that he expects first baseman Pete Alonso to remain with the Mets headed into the year, and Francisco Lindor has long been entrenched as the club’s franchise shortstop. With McNeil returning to everyday play at second base, that leaves third as the club’s only question mark on the infield.
Despite the position’s relative uncertainty, Stearns made clear that the Mets are comfortable with their internal options at the hot corner and do not plan on adding additional options to the club’s mix, which currently includes youngsters Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio as well as recent addition Joey Wendle. Sherman suggests that the club views Wendle as a utility man, suggesting he’s more likely to be ticketed for a bench role with the club than the opening day job at third base. That would leave Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio headed into spring training with a shot at taking over as the club’s regular third baseman. For his part, Stearns suggested that there’s no internal favorite between that trio for the position.
Baty was the club’s starting third baseman for much of the 2023 season but struggled to a .216/.281/.331 slash line in 318 trips to the plate before the club decided to option him back to Triple-A in early August. Baty returned to the big league club in September but saw his struggles continue as he slashed an anemic .194/.216/.292 during the season’s final month. Still, as a former first-round pick and consensus top-30 prospect in the game with a career .981 OPS at the Triple-A level, it’s easy to see why the club could be willing to give Baty another shot as the regular third baseman in his age-24 season next year. That’s especially true given Baty’s .300 xwOBA in 2023, which greatly outstripped his actual production this season, which left him with a meager .266 wOBA.
Vientos, 24 next week, had a torrid first half with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse this season, posting an incredible .306/.387/.612 slash line while clubbing 16 home runs and 21 doubles in 61 games. The strong offensive performance earned Vientos a regular role with the club from late July through the end of the season, but Vientos struggled to a .220/.261/.399 slash line with a 31% strikeout rate in those 184 late-season plate appearances. In addition to Vientos’s struggles at the plate, the youngster is viewed as the weakest defender of the trio in the running for regular reps at third base next season, meaning his bat would likely need to take a significant step forward for the Mets to rely on him as their regular third baseman entering next year.
Mauricio, who won’t celebrate his 23rd birthday until April, is both the youngest of the trio and the most inexperienced at the big league level. Once considered a top-50 prospect in the league, Mauricio’s star lost some of its shine after a rough 2022 season where he posted an OBP of just .296 at the Double-A level. Fortunately for Mauricio, his 2023 performance helped to quell doubts about his ability as he slashed a much stronger .292/.346/.506 in 116 games with Syracuse this season. That earned him a brief call-up to the big leagues this season, though he struggled to a .248/.296/.347 slash line in his first 108 trips to the plate against big league pitching. One advantage Mauricio could have in a camp battle against Baty and Vientos is his glove, as Mauricio has more than 3,000 innings of experience at shortstop in the minor leagues and sports an excellent throwing arm that should allow him to handle a transition to regular time at the hot corner without much issue.
NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets
One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins‘s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.
With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.
More from around the NL East…
- David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
- SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.
Mets Option Brett Baty, Place Starling Marte On Injured List
The Mets have optioned third baseman Brett Baty to Triple-A Syracuse, placed outfielder Starling Marte on the 10-day injured list with a groin strain, recalled infielder Jonathan Araúz and selected the contract of journeyman outfielder Abraham Almonte. Almonte’s promotion was first reported by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Paired with their selection of reliever Jimmy Yacabonis over the weekend, New York’s 40-man roster is at capacity.
Baty heads back to Triple-A for the first time since April. The recent top prospect began the season in Syracuse but got off to a roaring .400/.500/.886 start. That earned him a big league call a couple weeks into the year — his second promotion after a debut late last season. Baty quickly pushed Eduardo Escobar to the bench (and eventually made him expendable in trade) and started the season well, mashing at a .333/.394/.467 clip through the end of April.
The 23-year-old has hit a major slump since that excellent first month. He’s been a below-average hitter in each month since that point. Things have particularly spiraled of late. Since the All-Star Break, Baty is hitting .130/.211/.261 while striking out in 31.2% of his 77 plate appearances. While the Mets have turned their attention towards 2024, the struggles simply became untenable. They’ll hope Baty can find his stride against lower-level pitching.
Whether he does so could have implications for Baty’s long-term earning power. He entered the season with 50 days of major league service. Between his April 17 recall and today, he has accrued roughly 112 days of additional service time. That brings him to 162 days overall. Players get to a full service year at 172 days, meaning Baty’s approximately 10 days shy of that mark. If he returns to the big leagues for a week and a half later in the season, he’ll surpass the one-year threshold and remain on pace to reach free agency after the 2028 campaign. If he spends the remainder of the season in the minors, his free agency trajectory would be pushed back until after the ’29 season — though he’ll be on pace to reach arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player in that case.
Danny Mendick draws into the starting lineup at third base against the Cubs this evening. 23-year-old Mark Vientos seems the favorite for playing time there overall, with Mendick and Araúz offering utility depth behind him.
Marte’s rough 2023 campaign continues. He just returned from a two-week IL stay because of recurring migraine issues. The hamstring injury is obviously unrelated but represents another frustration in one of the worst seasons of his career. Around the injuries, Marte has hit only .248/.301/.324 with five homers through 341 trips to the plate.
His absence opens an outfield spot for Almonte. The switch-hitting outfielder signed a minor league deal over the offseason and is hitting .228/.331/.564 over 27 games in Syracuse. He’s striking out at a lofty 31.4% clip but has connected on 11 homers and is drawing plenty of walks. Almonte is accustomed to the role of late-season call-up. It’s his 11th straight year reaching the bigs, though he’s never played more than 82 games in any single season. Almonte will soon suit up for the eighth team of his career. He’s a .235/.302/.374 hitter in a little under 1400 MLB plate appearances.
Mets Recall Brett Baty
APRIL 17: New York officially recalled Baty and reliever Edwin Uceta. To clear active roster space, they’ve optioned Jose Butto and placed outfielder Tim Locastro on the 10-day injured list with back spasms.
APRIL 16: The Mets are planning to recall top prospect Brett Baty, per SNY’s Andy Martino. A corresponding move will be required to make room for Baty on the active roster, though no such move has been announced as of yet. Tim Healey of Newsday notes that Baty will not be active for today’s game against the A’s, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post noting that he’s set to join the club in LA tomorrow.
Baty, 23, is a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. He made his MLB debut in an 11-game stint with the Mets last year, though he struggled to a .184/.244/.342 slash line in that brief call-up. The club initially optioned him to Triple-A ahead of Opening Day, where he had only six games of experience coming into the season, but in 9 games with Syracuse to open the season, Baty has looked to be clearly above what the Triple-A level has to offer, slashing .400/.500/.886 with five homers and nearly as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). That phenomenal performance has continued a stellar track record as a hitter all throughout the minors for Baty, who sports a .903 OPS in 1,075 minor league plate appearances.
A third baseman by trade, Baty likely stands to benefit from Eduardo Escobar‘s slow start to the 2023 season, as the 34 year old veteran has slashed just .114/.167/.227 to open the 2023 campaign. That being said, Baty has begun getting reps in the outfield in recent years in the minor leagues, leaving open the possibility he could also factor into the outfield mix alongside Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. Daniel Vogelbach and Tommy Pham are currently in a timeshare at DH, where Baty could also receive at-bats.
Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Baty will be retroactively credited with service time for his time in Triple-A as he was on optional assignment for fewer than 20 days. That leaves Baty poised to receive a full year of service time in 2023, while also making the Mets eligible to receive an additional draft pick should Baty qualify via thr Prospect Promotion Incentive by placing in the top three of NL Rookie of the Year voting or top five of NL MVP voting.
The Opener: Rodriguez, Mets, MLBTR Podcast
As the grind of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Could Rodriguez debut today?
Orioles top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is on the verge of being promoted, and could make his MLB debut as soon as today in Texas. That’s not a guarantee, however, as the club will need to make room for Rodriguez on the active roster, which they have not done to this point. It’s possible Kyle Bradish will require a stint on the injured list, opening up a spot for Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t the club could also go with Austin Voth to start today’s game against the Rangers. Because Rodriguez was optioned a week ago, he can only be recalled if someone goes on the injured list. Otherwise, there’s a 15-day minimum gap required between the option and call-up.
2. Mets to have imaging done on Baty, Verlander
As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Mets top prospect Brett Baty left yesterday’s game in Triple-A with soreness in the same thumb that required surgery at the end of last season. Baty is scheduled to get imaging done on the thumb today, so it’s possible we’ll hear how much impact, if any, the apparent injury will have on Baty going forward at some point today. Baty isn’t the only key piece in the Mets organization undergoing imaging today, however, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that Justin Verlander is scheduled for an MRI today. Verlander has been on the injured list since the start of the season with what has been described as a “extremely minor” teres major strain.
3. MLBTR Podcast Returns
After a seven-year hiatus, the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is returning! New host Simon Hampton talks with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in the first episode, which will be available later today. Simon and Anthony will discuss a variety of hot-button topics around the baseball world, including looking ahead to the trade deadline this summer, while also answering listener questions. Keep an eye out throughout the day for more information.
Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth
It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083
One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.
Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA
Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.
Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222
A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.
Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923
Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.
Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00
Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.
Three More
Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.
Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.
Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.
Mets Option Brett Baty, Mark Vientos
The Mets have announced that they have optioned third baseman Brett Baty and first baseman Mark Vientos to Triple-A Syracuse. Both prospects were under consideration for the club’s Opening Day roster. Infielders Jose Peraza and Jonathan Arauz, catcher Michael Perez, outfielder DJ Stewart, righty Denyi Reyes, and lefty Zach Muckenhirn have also been reassigned to minor league camp.
Baty, 23, made his big league debut in 2022, though he struggled in his 11-game audition. Still, as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport who had a torrid spring, posting an .885 OPS in 50 plate appearances during camp, Baty drew significant attention as a potential option for the Mets to open the season. Ultimately, with just 17 games of experience above the Double-A level and Eduardo Escobar currently entrenched at third base, the Mets decided Baty would be better served starting the season in the minors.
In the event that Baty comes up later in the season and plays his way into contention for the NL Rookie of the Year award, he could earn a full year of service time by finishing in the top two. If he places in the top three, the Mets will have missed an opportunity to acquire an extra pick in the 2024 draft by not placing Baty on the Opening Day roster. Vientos, meanwhile, has not met the prospect ranking requirement to earn the Mets an extra draft pick even if he had been added to the Opening Day roster, though a top two finish in Rookie of the Year voting could still earn him a full year of service time.
Vientos is in a similar position: also 23, the right-handed slugger struggled in his 16 game cup of coffee at the big league level last season, though with 112 games of experience at the Triple-A level over the past two seasons, and a clearly path to playing time as a DH alongside Daniel Vogelbach, Vientos seemed more likely to make the Opening Day roster than Baty. Nonetheless, he will join Baty at Triple-A to open the season, likely leaving the final spot on the Mets’s bench to either Darin Ruf or Danny Mendick.
While both youngsters seem all but certain to return to the big league roster at some point this season, the Mets have a deep position player corps that leaves the duo getting regular playing time at the Triple-A level until an injury (or under-performance by a big league regular) creates an opportunity in the majors.
Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.
Five BHPs In The News
Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510
This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472
Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.
Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544
Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.
Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440
The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.
Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA
Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.
Three More
Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.
Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.
Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.
Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson
The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.
Five BHPs In The News
Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510
Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.
*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.
Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544
Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519
Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.
Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563
Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.
Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA
Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.
Three More
Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.
Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.