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Pirates Could Add To Offense By Dealing From Pitching Depth

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The Pirates are scouring the trade market for ways to improve their lineup, and given the lack of pure sellers with available bats, one potential avenue the team has explored is trading from another area of its major league roster to augment the offense. General manager Ben Cherington discussed such a possibility on Sunday (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), and he mentioned just today that the team has an abundance of pitching that could appeal to other clubs (also via Hiles).

Pittsburgh indeed has a deceptively deep collection of arms, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last Wednesday in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that a back-end starter such as Bailey Falter or perhaps a late-inning relievers like Aroldis Chapman or even Colin Holderman and David Bednar could be in play if the Bucs indeed want to use their collection of arms to add a bat. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com tweets that the Pirates have been willing to deal from the bullpen to improve the lineup but also adds that some of the team’s pitching prospects could come into play.

It goes without saying that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller don’t factor into this thinking. That excellent trio is the very foundation on which the Pirates’ staff will be built for the next several years. But the Buccos have plenty of affordable back-of-the-rotation options.

The Braves are covering all but $3MM of Marco Gonzales’ salary this season. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 26 1/3 innings and has looked sharp since returning from a two-month IL stint owing to a muscle strain in his forearm. A team looking for an affordable fourth or fifth starter (e.g. Twins, Astros, Guardians) could be intrigued. Falter is currently on the injured list due to tendinitis in his triceps but should be back before long. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts (90 1/3 innings) while fanning 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options but controlled another four seasons beyond the 2024 campaign. Martin Perez tossed six shutout innings today but did so while issuing five walks and only lowered his ERA to 5.20 in the process. He’s earning $8MM, which makes it hard to see him bringing back a bat of note.

In terms of less-established options, the Pirates have names like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft to peddle. Priester has gotten some MLB experience, but the former top prospect has yet to establish himself as a core rotation piece. Burrows and Ashcraft haven’t yet debuted. The former only just returned from Tommy John surgery performed last April. He’s slowly moving up the minor league ladder on a rehab assignment. The latter has had a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A.

The Pirates surely don’t want to deplete their stock of arms too greatly, but in an ideal world, top prospect Bubba Chandler will claim a rotation spot by 2025. At that point, there’s a notable glut of arms with only one rotation spot truly open. Even if Chandler needs more time or gets hurt, Pittsburgh would still have him, Priester, Falter, Ashcraft, Burrows, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo (recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery) as long-term rotation options behind Skenes, Jones and Keller.

In the bullpen, Chapman is back to his excessively wild ways. He’s fanned a mammoth 36.6% of his opponents but also issued walks at a woeful 19.5% clip. To Chapman’s credit, he’s been better in that regard after a shaky April/May showing. Over the past two months, he’s sitting on a 3.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. That’s still too many free passes, but it’s more in line with some past marks from Chapman, who has frequently been able to overcome poor command because of his blistering velocity and knack for missing bats. Overall, Chapman sports a 3.93 ERA on the season. He’s being paid $10.5MM, and the Pirates still owe him about $3.72MM as of this writing. He’s a free agent at season’s end.

Both Bednar and especially Holderman would come with greater appeal. Bednar has long frequented the pages of MLBTR in past trade deadlines and offseasons. Clubs throughout the league have targeted the Pittsburgh-area native since he established himself with his hometown club, but a deal has never come together. Now, Bednar is struggling through a career-worst season, with a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The shaky ERA seems tied largely to a spike in homer-to-flyball rate; from 2021-23, only 6.6% of Bednar’s fly balls became homers. This year, he’s nearly doubled that, sitting at 12.2%. Bednar is also allowing more fly balls than ever (50%), making the timing of that spike most unwelcome.

Still, there’s plenty of track record with Bednar, who from ’21-’23 posted a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves and elite strikeout and walk rates. He’s earning $4.51MM this season and is controllable through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old Holderman would be difficult to trade. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible, though he will be this season as a Super Two player. Holderman is controlled four more years, all the way through 2028, and has delivered 36 2/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball this season, fanning 28.8% of his opponents against a 10.9% walk rate. Moving on from a controllable leverage reliever of that ilk isn’t easy, though the Bucs could consider it a nifty piece of business to acquire Holderman from the Mets in exchange for Daniel Vogelbach (back in 2022) and then trade him for a more impactful bat just two years later. And with so many arms in the system behind Skenes, Keller and Jones, some of those in-house options are going to wind up in the bullpen.

Trades of Holderman and Bednar seem like a long shot, particularly since the latter would be selling low on a popular hometown All-Star. That said, the Bucs do have a large stock of arms from which to deal. Moving an established reliever/starter for a bat could open the door for any number of young, promising in-house replacements, while a more conventional swap might simply see them trade some of those prospects for immediate offensive help — ideally a bat controlled for multiple years beyond the current season.

Pirates Reinstate Marco Gonzales From Injured List

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2:40pm: The Pirates have made it official, reinstating Gonzales and designating Honeywell for assignment. They also reinstated closer David Bednar from the IL and optioned right-hander Ryder Ryan.

2:15pm: Left-hander Marco Gonzales is going to start today’s game for the Pirates, with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette among those to relay the news on X. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list and will therefore need to be reinstated to the 40-man roster, but it was reported earlier that righty Brent Honeywell Jr. is to be designated for assignment. Unless there are other moves involved, it seems it will be a simple swap of Gonzales taking Honeywell’s spot.

Gonzales, 32, was acquired from Atlanta in the offseason and started the season in Pittsburgh’s rotation. He made three starts with a 2.65 earned run average before landing on the injured list in mid-April with a forearm strain. He now returns after missing roughly three months of the season.

The lefty has generally been a solid but not overwhelming starter over his career. In 910 career innings, he has a 4.10 ERA but with a subpar strikeout rate of 17.6%. At his best, he limits damage even if he doesn’t miss bats. In 2019, he logged over 200 innings with Seattle with a 3.99 ERA. He only punched out 17% of opponents but Statcast considered his barrel rate to be in the 87th percentile of qualified pitchers.

The Bucs could have some decisions to make about how they shape their rotation for the rest of the year. Gonzales and Martín Pérez were brought aboard in the winter to ideally serve as veteran anchors in a somewhat inexperienced group but neither has been able to achieve that so far. As mentioned, Gonzales took the ball just four times before a lengthy IL stint while Pérez also missed some time due to injury and has 14 starts with an ERA of 5.15.

In the long term, Pittsburgh seems to be well set up in the rotation with a core three of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Skenes has debuted this year and dominated with a 1.90 ERA through 11 starts, getting named the National League starter for the All-Star game. Jones hasn’t been quite that dominant but a 3.56 ERA through 16 starts is still quite an achievement for a rookie. Keller is in his sixth season and has a 3.40 ERA and is signed through 2028.

Jones is currently on the injured list and won’t be available for a few weeks, but the Bucs have Gonzales, Pérez, Skenes and Keller, as well as Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz. The 23-year-old Priester isn’t generating as much hype as Skenes or Jones but he has a 4.30 ERA for the Bucs this year. The 25-year-old Ortiz started the year in the bullpen has pitched so well that he’s carved out a starting gig for himself. He has a 2.95 ERA on the year with five of his last six outings being four innings or longer. Two of his last three appearances have been six-inning starts with only one earned run allowed total over those two starts.

That gives Pittsburgh six possible starters for now and seven when Jones comes back. Bailey Falter is also on the IL with left triceps tendinitis, though it’s unclear when he’ll be back. He was also having a good season before the IL stint, with a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts.

The Bucs are currently 45-48 on the year. Despite that fairly unimpressive record, they are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race and will have to figure out how to juggle these different rotation choices. Priester has options and may end up in the minors in spite of his decent results. Ortiz could end up back in the bullpen and Pérez also has some relief work on his résumé.

With all those starting options, it’s possible the Bucs look to make someone available even if they’re not truly selling at the deadline. For example, the Rays recently welcome Shane Baz back from his Tommy John layoff and were able to trade Aaron Civale to the Brewers without significantly downgrading their rotation, getting a prospect back in return. Many teams are looking for pitching but there are few clearcut sellers, so perhaps there would be interest in a veteran like Pérez or Gonzales, allowing the Bucs to use their pile of starters to add a position player or a reliever without truly harming their chances in 2024.

Whether a trade comes together or not, the Pittsburgh rotation seems to have a lot of long-term potential between Skenes, Jones, Keller, Priester, Falter and Ortiz, as well as prospects such as Braxton Ashcraft. There’s also Johan Oviedo, who will miss this season due to Tommy John surgery but should be back next year. Everyone in that group is controlled through 2027 or longer.

Pirates Notes: Jones, Bednar, Jefferies, Ryan

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The Pirates placed right-hander Jared Jones on the 15-day injured list on Thursday, and manager Derek Shelton gave the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Andrew Destin and other reporters some details on the lat strain that has put the star rookie on the shelf for the foreseeable future.  Jones suffered a Grade 2 strain and isn’t likely to throw for the next two weeks, so the team can allow him to rest and recover before checking on his progress.  If all goes well and Jones is able to restart a throwing program at that time, Jones could be on track to return perhaps by early August, based on past timelines for other pitchers who have suffered similar injuries.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones get a bit more recovery time, both as a precautionary measure given his importance to the Pirates’ future, and because the team was already taking steps to manage the workloads of both Jones and Paul Skenes in their mutual.  Only two of Jones’ 16 starts have come on the standard four days of rest, as the Bucs have used a six-man rotation for the majority of the season.  Jones threw a career-high 126 1/3 innings combined between Double-A and Triple-A ball in 2023, and he is up to 91 innings in the big leagues this year.

Jones’ last start on July 3 came after an 11-day break, as he had a turn in the rotation skipped in order to help keep him fresh.  Shelton didn’t think the layoff played a role in Jones’ injury, as the Pirates still had Jones take part in a live bullpen session (“We did ramp his intensity up, we still did make sure he threw“) during his 11 days between starts, and instead chalked the lat strain up the vagaries of baseball.

While it’s good news that Jones’ injury isn’t overly serious, missing him for even a month is a hit to Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes.  The Pirates are 42-45 entering today’s play but are still four games out of a wild card spot, so there is time for the team to still mount a run — or, if things go south before July 30, to explore selling at the trade deadline.

David Bednar’s status is a key factor in how the Pirates’ July might play out, and the closer made progress in his injury recovery with a live batting practice session today.  As per MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf (X link), Bednar faced five batters over the course of 21 pitches, with Bednar using his entire arsenal.  A left oblique strain sent Bednar to the 15-day IL on June 20, and while he has already missed beyond the 15-day minimum, today’s throwing session is a good sign that he might not be too far away from a minor league rehab assignment or even a straight-ahead activation.  The closer has 16 saves and a somewhat deceptive 5.17 ERA over 31 1/3 innings this season, as Bednar has been lights-out following a rough April.

Speaking of bullpen injuries, Pittsburgh called right-hander Ryder Ryan up from Triple-A today after righty Daulton Jefferies was placed on the 15-day IL.  Jefferies is dealing with discomfort in his right elbow, and the injury comes just under two months after the Pirates claimed Jefferies off waivers from the Giants.

Jefferies has a 9.82 ERA split between 10 innings for Pittsburgh (6.30 ERA) and 4 2/3 frames with San Francisco (17.36 ERA), and both clubs have optioned him back and forth from Triple-A on multiple occasions.  This marked Jefferies’ return to big league action after missing all of 2023 recovering from both a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and then a Tommy John surgery within a six-month span in 2022.  Considering that Jefferies also had another TJ procedure earlier in his career, it isn’t a good sign that he is experiencing another bout of elbow soreness.

Pirates Place David Bednar On 15-Day Injured List

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Prior to today’s 3-1 loss to the Rays, the Pirates placed closer David Bednar on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 20.  Left-hander Justin Bruihl was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Bednar last pitched on Wednesday, and Pirates GM Ben Cherington said in his weekly radio show (hat tip to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) said that the right-hander “felt a little something in his left side” following that outing.  Bednar and the team took a few days to rest and evaluate the situation, but after Bednar still felt some tightness after a throwing session, an IL trip was deemed necessary.

Cherington described the placement as somewhat preventative, as Bednar’s strain is considered relatively mild and there is hope he might be able to return once his minimum 15 days are up.  As Cherington noted, “We need him for the biggest part of the season, as possible….Hopefully, that means it’s a short stay on the IL, rather than it turning into something bigger and it being a longer absence.”

The Bucs dropped to 37-40 after today’s loss, but remain just a couple of games out of a wild card berth in the very crowded NL postseason race.  A hot week could easily get Pittsburgh into a playoff position, though the team’s struggling lineup will have to start producing, and naturally losing their closer for at least 15 days won’t help the Pirates’ chances.

Owner Bob Nutting believes his team can stay in contention, and recently said that the Pirates could make some additions at the July 30 trade deadline (and possibly receive some extra payroll space to make those adds).  However, given the Bucs’ lack of offense and now this hit to their bullpen, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Pittsburgh explored being deadline sellers if the team can’t get on track, or if other NL clubs start to catch fire and create some real space in the wild card race.

Bednar’s injury could make his trade candidacy a moot point, but even if he did return in 15 days and the Pirates looked to deal some players at the deadline, it isn’t likely that he’d be on the move by July 30.  While Bednar’s name has long been linked to trade speculation, the Bucs have shown that they’re eager to properly end their rebuilding period, so it isn’t likely that they would move such an effective closer in short order.  It isn’t out of the question that the Pirates could still trade Bednar as his price tag continues to rise during his arbitration years, but that concept will likely be explored more in the offseason than within the next month.

An All-Star the last two seasons, Bednar has a 5.17 ERA over 31 1/3 innings this year due to a very rough start.  After posting an 11.45 ERA over his first 13 appearances and 11 innings, Bednar has righted the ship and delivered a 1.77 ERA across his last 21 games and 20 1/3 innings.

With Bednar sidelined, Cherington said it’ll be “all hands on deck” for closing duties.  Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman are the likeliest candidates to earn saves — Holderman has been the more effective of the two pitchers this season, though Chapman has a long history of past closing experience.

The Pirates could also get some bullpen reinforcements coming in the form of Ryan Borucki, as the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Kevin Gorman writes that Borucki is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Borucki hasn’t pitched since April 5 since a case of left triceps inflammation sent him to the 15-day and then the 60-day injured list.

Injury Notes: Gausman, Kahnle, Bednar, Medina

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Kevin Gausman is dealing with “general fatigue” in his throwing shoulder, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) on Monday morning. The Blue Jays ace underwent an MRI that fortunately revealed no structural damage or injury. While that’s clearly a relief, there’s going to be some level of concern whenever a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber is battling any kind of shoulder discomfort.

The Jays elected to have Gausman skip his scheduled throwing session on Monday. He’ll be reevaluated later in the week. There’s nothing to suggest his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy at this point. It’s nevertheless a situation to which the Jays will pay close attention. Alek Manoah is also battling what appears to be minor shoulder soreness. They’re the bookends to a projected rotation that’ll include a middle trio of Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos. Right-hander Bowden Francis is probably the top option to step into the season-opening starting five if anyone from that group begins the year on the shelf.

A few other pitching injury situations early this week:

  • Tommy Kahnle hasn’t seen any game action this spring. He has been throwing side sessions, but Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated the team is bringing him along more deliberately after he finished the 2023 season on the IL with shoulder inflammation (relayed by Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Boone indicated that Kahnle might not get on a Grapefruit League mound until close to the end of camp. That at least raises the possibility of opening the regular season on the 15-day injured list to buy him a little more time to get to full strength. Kahnle logged 40 2/3 innings in his return to the Bronx last year, his heaviest workload since 2019. He turned in a 2.66 ERA with a strong 29.1% strikeout rate in a setup capacity.
  • Pirates closer David Bednar is battling what seems to be minor tightness in his right lat, skipper Derek Shelton said over the weekend (via MLB.com). The two-time All-Star has yet to get on the mound in exhibition play as the team keeps an eye on the situation. Bednar is a force at the back of the Pittsburgh bullpen and one of the sport’s best relievers overall. He has turned in a 2.25 ERA through 179 2/3 innings for the Bucs after his inclusion in the Joe Musgrove trade return. Bednar allowed an even two earned runs per nine over 67 1/3 frames a season ago. He paced the National League with 39 saves.
  • The A’s pulled right-hander Luis Medina in the second inning of today’s Cactus League matchup against the Reds. Oakland announced that he sprained his right knee and didn’t provide any timetable for his return. Medina, a key piece of the Frankie Montas trade return, made his MLB debut last season. He started 17 of 23 appearances as a rookie, turning in a 5.42 ERA across 109 2/3 frames. Medina is battling for the #5 spot in the rotation. Paul Blackburn, JP Sears and offseason acquisitions Ross Stripling and Alex Wood look likely to take the top four jobs. Joe Boyle would be the expected choice for the #5 spot if Medina starts the year on the injured list.

Pirates Receiving Trade Interest In Hedges, Hill, Holderman

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July 28: Catcher Austin Hedges has also drawn trade interest, Heyman tweets. While the veteran backstop provides nothing on the offensive side of the game — Hedges is a career .189/.246/.323 hitter who’s batting .181/.234/.231 this year — he’s long been regarded as a premier defender at a critical position. A club looking to add a defensive-minded backup could perhaps have interest in Hedges, who’s earning $5MM this season and still has about $1.77MM of that sum still to be paid out.

Moving Hedges makes sense for a Pirates club with two of the sport’s top catching prospects, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, both ready for a legitimate audition in the Majors. Both are already on the big league roster, and Davis has seen some action in right field to get his bat in the lineup. A Hedges trade would clear out more playing time for each youngster. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with Hedges yesterday about the possibility of a trade and his shift toward a mentor role for the younger Davis  and Rodriguez. Both young backstops lauded Hedges for his eagerness to take them under his wing as they continue their development.

July 27: The Pirates have received some trade interest in starter Rich Hill and setup man Colin Holderman, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Hill, in particular, seems a good bet to move within the next few days.

Pittsburgh signed the 43-year-old southpaw to a one-year, $8MM free agent contract last offseason. Hill has continued to offer the kind of back-of-the-rotation production not far off that of his past few seasons. He owns a 4.82 ERA over 21 starts and 114 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit below average, while he’s issuing walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip.

It’s not overwhelming production, but teams have valued Hill’s general stability at the back of a staff and veteran clubhouse presence. He’s been on six teams within the past five seasons, generally working at the end of a contending rotation.

For a while, the Bucs seemed as if they’d stick in the postseason picture. They’ve gone cold of late and fallen out of the mix, setting the stage for at least a moderate sell-off. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana was shipped off to the Brewers this afternoon. Hill is in the same spot as an impending free agent who could have modest appeal to a contender. He’s due around $2.67MM from here forward.

The Pirates can set a loftier ask on Holderman. Acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach at last summer’s deadline, the right-hander has somewhat quietly developed into a quality reliever for the Bucs. He struggled down the stretch last summer but has solid numbers across the board this year.

Holderman, 27, owns a 3.71 ERA through 34 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is fairly typical, while he has above-average control and a quality 51.5% grounder percentage. He’s handling hitters from both sides of the plate, mixes three pitches and has picked up 15 holds in a leverage role for Pittsburgh.

That’s valuable production, and Holderman’s affordability only adds to the appeal. He surpassed one year of MLB service this season. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next year and is controllable through the 2028 campaign. Every contender could fit him on the books and into the middle innings, but the Bucs also have zero urgency to deal him for a suboptimal return.

Of course, the Bucs’ top potential trade candidates would be mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller and All-Star closer David Bednar. Heyman reported earlier this week the Pirates were willing to consider offers on those players. Both are under arbitration control for multiple seasons beyond this one (Keller through ’25, Bednar past ’26). The ask on each will be very high as a result, and deals seem significant long shots. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote yesterday that a Keller or Bednar trade was very unlikely, characterizing the openness to offers as standard due diligence for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

Pirates Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On David Bednar, Mitch Keller

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4:14PM: The Pirates are also open to hearing what teams might offer for Mitch Keller, Heyman tweets, but like with Bednar, a trade doesn’t seem likely.  It would seem like Pittsburgh is taking a broad, due-diligence approach to the deadline just in case a special opportunity arises, yet moving a building-block type like Keller or Bednar would indeed require a real blockbuster of an offer.

3:25PM: The Pirates are willing to listen to trade offers on closer David Bednar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that it will likely be difficult to get a deal together.

Bednar, 28, would undoubtedly be of interest to any club around the league, given the way he keeps taking his game to new levels. Across 2021 and 2022, he posted a 2.40 earned run average in 106 appearances, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while walking 7.8%. This year, he’s cut his walk rate to just 5.8%, helping him drop his ERA to 1.15. He earned 19 saves last year and has already matched that figure here in 2023.

On top of his obvious skills, Bednar would have plenty of appeal to MLB clubs based on his status. He came into the 2023 season with two years and 76 days of service time. That means he’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter and won’t be scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Just about every contending club can use a strong bullpen upgrade at this time of year, bumping every other reliever down one spot in the pecking order.

Of course, the same qualities that make Bednar attractive to the other 29 clubs also work on the Pirates. The club has faded after a hot start and is now 43-56, but they have shown enough potential this year to suggest that maybe contention isn’t too far away. Reliever performance is volatile and there is a school of thought that a club in seller position should be open to moving any member of its bullpen, which makes it fairly logical for the Bucs to listen and see what’s out there. But Bednar’s elite performance and local ties, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised nearby, suggest they will need to be blown away in order for a deal to come together.

It’s important to distinguish between a club that’s willing to listen to offers versus one that is actively shopping a player around. There’s nothing to suggest the Pirates have done the latter, so it’s possible that their open mind to incoming calls is merely due diligence. Perhaps some club makes them an offer they can’t refuse, but it seems the most likely scenario is that he stays in Pittsburgh as they take another shot at contention next year.

Although obtaining Bednar may prove difficult, teams looking for quality bullpen upgrades should have plenty of other options among the potential trade candidates this summer. Some other names that figure to be more attainable include Scott Barlow, David Robertson, Jordan Hicks and many others.

Who Could The Pirates Trade At The Deadline?

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The Pirates jumped out to a hot start in 2023, sitting on a 20-9 record at the end of April that made it seem like the days of rebuilding were suddenly in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to maintain that, falling back to earth with an 8-18 record in May. Ownership was still supportive of buying at the deadline as recently as June 21, but the club has continued to slide in the standings.

The Bucs now find themselves with a record of 41-49. They are fourth in the National League Central, well behind the Reds and Brewers. They’re also behind the third-place Cubs, who have the best run differential of the bunch and a soft schedule coming out of the break. FanGraphs currently pegs Pittsburgh’s playoff odds at just 1.4%.

Barring a tremendous surge after the All-Star break, the club will likely have to set their sights on 2024. That will mean having discussions about trading away veterans, both to recoup some younger players to help in future seasons and to open up playing time for the players they already have. Let’s take a look at some options, though there aren’t too many players on the roster who fit the bill.

Rental Players

Rich Hill

Hill continues to defy Father Time and is still a reasonably effective starter at the age of 43. He’s tossed 98 innings over 18 starts this year and currently has a 4.78 ERA, striking out 21.1% of batters faced while walking 9% and getting grounders at a 35.9% clip. He’s making $8MM this year, with about $2.6MM still to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

He won’t command a huge return as a back-end innings eater, but the Bucs could perhaps line up with some club that simply wants a guy to take the ball every five days. Just a couple of years ago, the Nationals were able to get Lane Thomas in return for a 37-year-old Jon Lester and his 5.02 ERA at that time. The Pirates shouldn’t expect that kind of return on Hill, but it serves to demonstrate that they could at least take a flier on someone by putting Hill out there.

Carlos Santana

Santana, 37, isn’t likely to be a huge deadline addition at this stage of his career. However, it was just a year ago that the Royals were able to trade him to the Mariners for a couple of younger relievers. This year, he’s still showing his good approach at the plate, with his 10.5% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate both better than average. He’s hit nine home runs, but his .233/.311/.390 batting line is a bit below average, translating to a wRC+ of 91.

The switch-hitter has always been a bit better against lefties and that continues to be the case this year, as he’s slashing .260/.348/.416 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 109. There are likely some contenders who would be happy to utilize him as a short-side platoon bat and pinch-hitter off the bench. His first base defense continues to be considered above average. He’s making $6.725MM this year, which will leave around $2.2MM at deadline time.

Ji Man Choi

Choi, 32, appeared in nine games before a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot sent him to the injured list. He was reinstated just before the break, and his form in the next few weeks will likely determine his trade interest. He’s hit .237/.340/.428 in his career with a 13.1% walk rate, leading to a wRC+ of 114. The left-handed hitter has been especially strong with the platoon advantage, hitting .245/.351/.454 against righties in his career for a 124 wRC+. He’s earning $4.65MM this year and about $1.5MM will be remaining at the end of the month.

Austin Hedges

Hedges has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game but doesn’t provide much with the bat. That’s especially true this year, where he’s hitting just .179/.230/.232. His wRC+ of 26 is dead last in the league among players with at least 170 plate appearances. Yet he continues to get work based on his defensive acumen and strong reputation for working with pitchers.

Trading catchers in midseason is generally tricky, as it can be challenging to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. If the Bucs can’t line up a trade for that reason, they may have to think about moving on from Hedges regardless. Catching prospect Henry Davis is already up with the big league club to get his bat in the lineup but is playing the outfield at the moment. The club’s other top catching prospect, Endy Rodríguez, is in Triple-A and perhaps ready for a promotion. Both Davis and Rodríguez play other positions and it remains to be seen who the club considers its true “catcher of the future,” so perhaps they could use the last few months of the season to get a look at one or both.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen makes theoretical sense as a trade candidate since he’s 36 years old, an impending free agent and performing well at the plate this year. The Rangers have reportedly expressed interest, but all signs seem to point to Cutch staying put. He’s been quite open about how happy he is to be back in Pittsburgh and plans to spend the rest of his career there. The club is apparently on board with that and doesn’t seem to have any designs on trading him.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Jarlín García

García has a 2.89 ERA dating back to 2019 and had that figure at 3.74 last year but was non-tendered by the Giants. The Bucs swooped in and signed him to a $2.5MM deal with a $3.25MM club option for 2024. Unfortunately, he’s been on the injured list all year due to a biceps injury. Players on the IL can still be traded, but there won’t be much interest unless he shows some progress in the next few weeks.

Longer-Term Players

Mitch Keller

There are no indications the club has any plans of trading Keller. In fact, he’s the best rotation building block they have, with his 3.31 ERA this year putting him just outside the top 10 in the National League. But although he’s only been breaking out over the past year or so, his control is dwindling since he’s a bit of a late bloomer. Debuting back in 2019, he struggled in his first few seasons before putting things together recently and now has just two seasons of control left beyond this one.

The Bucs are in a similar situation with Keller to where they were with Bryan Reynolds not too long ago. Reynolds was clearly an important member of the club but there was a ticking clock as his free agency was getting closer. In that case, the two sides lined up on an extension to potentially keep him in Pittsburgh through 2031, and a similar decision might have to be made on Keller.

David Bednar

Bednar, 28, continues to cement himself as one of the better relievers in the league. He has a 1.27 ERA this year, striking out 29.8% of hitters while walking just 5%, earning 17 saves in the process. Given the volatility of reliever performance, there could be an argument for the Bucs to cash in while his trade value is high, as they can currently market him with three seasons of control beyond this one. However, Bednar’s a fan favorite, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised in the area. Since the club has shown flashes that suggest the rebuild won’t go on for much longer, it seems unlikely they would consider moving a key piece like Bednar. As with Keller, other teams will still surely try, but he’s likely staying put.

Connor Joe

Joe isn’t anywhere close to free agency, as he will have four years of club control remaining after this one. But while many of the players on the club’s roster are in their mid-20s, Joe will be turning 31 next month. He’s also having a decent season, hitting .240/.332/.421 for a wRC+ of 106 while playing first base and the outfield corners. Perhaps the club would be tempted to put him on the trading block now since his trade value will likely only decrease as he ages and becomes more expensive. He’ll finish this year with his service time at 2.136 and could qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player.

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Ultimately, the Bucs don’t have too much to offer as sellers this winter. The veterans they do have will get some interest but won’t be headlining any blockbuster deals. If they get on a hot streak in the next few weeks, perhaps they just decide to hold onto everyone and hope for a strong finish. But their chances of contention should be much stronger next year and they could start lining things up for that.

By moving Hedges, they could get a look at Davis and Rodríguez as catchers at the big league level while continuing to evaluate their bats. By moving Santana, Choi and/or Joe out of the first base/designated hitter/corner outfield mix, they could open up plate appearances for players currently in the minors, whether that’s a prospect like Liover Peguero or a potential late bloomer like Miguel Andujar. The latter struggled in the majors earlier this year but has hit .409/.459/.634 in Triple-A since accepting an outright assignment two months ago. If added to the club’s roster later this year, they could retain him via arbitration for 2024.

Pirates Could Pursue More Contract Extensions

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The Pirates’ extension of Bryan Reynolds — seven years and $100MM on top of his current $6.75MM salary — put an end to a long-running saga of trade rumors swirling around the All-Star outfielder. It’s the first nine-figure contract in franchise history and the second long-term deal with a hopeful core player of the past 14 months; Pittsburgh also signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM deal prior to the 2022 season. Speaking at yesterday’s press conference to announce the Reynolds extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested that he hopes to work out long-term deals with additional core players (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

Nutting noted that “to a great degree, we’re just getting started,” going on to call Reynolds’ new contract “a huge step forward for the franchise” before adding that he’s “confident we’ll have future steps as we go forward.” Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out Gorman’s full piece for comments not only from Nutting but also from Reynolds himself and from general manager Ben Cherington.

On the one hand, it’s fairly common for owners and baseball operations leaders to offer up what’s essentially boilerplate executive-speak about wanting to extend core players on a young club. On the other, Nutting has kept a notoriously tight budget and small payroll for the Pirates. The extensions for Hayes and especially for Reynolds mark a definitive change in course for the club, and with fresh off guaranteeing his top player an additional $100MM in guaranteed money, Nutting’s words perhaps carry a bit of extra credence.

If the Bucs do plan to explore — or already have explored — long-term pacts with additional players, there are a handful of logical candidates for such a deal. In the rotation, right-handers Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller both increasingly look like solid building blocks, though they’re at very different stages of their careers. The 23-year-old Contreras doesn’t yet have a full season of Major League service time, putting his earning power on an extension considerably south of Keller. The Reds just locked up righty Hunter Greene, who was controllable for five more seasons, on a six-year, $53MM contract. Contreras is even further removed from free agency and would presumably come with a lower price tag.

Keller, meanwhile, is earning $2.4375MM in 2023 with just two more seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The 2014 second-rounder ranked as one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to his debut in 2019, and while it’s taken some time for him to get there, Keller has begun to solidify himself as a quality starter.

Dating back to last May, when he added a sinker to his repertoire and began to rely less heavily on his four-seamer, the 27-year-old sports a 3.28 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in 159 1/3 innings. That includes an impressive six-inning, two-run, 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers today. If he were to continue at this pace, he’d have a strong case in extension talks. For some context, Keller will be in the same service class following the 2023 season that Kyle Freeland (five years, $64.5MM) and Pablo Lopez (four years, $73.5MM) were when they signed their own extensions. The Bucs could try to pursue something sooner, but regardless, much of Keller’s breakout looks sustainable.

Elsewhere on the roster, closer David Bednar is a local product who’s emerged as a fan favorite and as one of the game’s better relievers. Since coming over from the Padres as part of the return for Joe Musgrove, he’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 30 saves and 17 holds. His 2023 campaign has been particularly impressive, as Bednar has yielded just one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

That said, relievers are notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis, and Bednar is already 28 years old. The Pirates control him through his age-31 season and might find some risk in locking him into an extension that would effectively be buying his age-32 campaign and perhaps a season or two thereafter.

In the lineup, the Pirates have some interesting candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is currently out while recovering from a fractured ankle but has displayed some of the most tantalizing tools in all of baseball when healthy. His development is still a work in progress, particularly with regard to his approach at the plate, but few players can match his combination of power, speed and athleticism. Meanwhile, outfielder Jack Suwinski has quickly become a Statcast darling, with eye-popping exit velocity, barrel rates and sprint speed. Both young hitters are controllable through the 2028 season at present.

The Bucs have plenty of young talent beyond that grouping — some of it yet to debut in the Majors. Catchers Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are among the most highly regarded in the sport at their position. Right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester are both considered potential rotation pieces in the long term. Infielder Nick Gonzales just hit the minor league injured list with a shoulder strain today but is in Triple-A and could potentially make his debut later this year if the issue proves minor.

Broadly speaking, the Pirates have a deep and talented system, with plenty of interesting long-term pieces already on the roster and also on the cusp of debuting while biding their time in the upper minors. There’s always risk for a low-payroll club like this to lock players up so early, as the margin for error is thinner than with a deep-pocketed rival. That said, hitting a home run on an early extension can also be key in allowing teams in this payroll sphere to spend a bit more in free agency, if their core players are locked in at affordable rates. Only time will tell whether Nutting’s comments were merely lip service or the beginning of a welcome trend for Bucs fans, but regardless of which is true, the organization’s future looks increasingly bright.

Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off

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The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.

As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.

Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.

German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.

After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.

As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.

While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.

The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.

Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.

As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.

Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.

Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.

Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.

Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.

Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging.  He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.

Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.

Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.

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It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.

Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.

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