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NL Notes: Dodgers, Roberts, Mets, Marlins, Dietrich, Nats, Harper

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The Dodgers just won their third National League West title in as many years under Dave Roberts, though the manager’s future beyond this season still isn’t known yet. The deal Roberts signed when he took the helm in November 2015 includes an option for next season, which the club hasn’t exercised. The Dodgers could instead ink Roberts to a new pact if they’re interested in keeping him for the long haul, and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that the two sides have indeed begun contract talks. There’s mutual respect between Roberts and Dodgers management, Shaikin relays, and the 46-year-old has the confidence of chairman Mark Walter. Asked if the Dodgers would give Roberts long-term security, Walter said, “I don’t see any reason why not.” The results under Roberts are hard to argue with – in addition to their three division titles on his watch, the Dodgers have won an NL pennant (in 2017) and combined for a 287-200 regular-season record.

Now the latest from the NL East…

  • There are anywhere from 10 to 12 “serious candidates” for the Mets’ general manager opening, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, adding that Kim Ng may be among the names. If the Mets hire Ng, Major League Baseball’s senior vice president for baseball operations, she’d become the first woman to hold a GM job in professional sports. Ng comes with plenty of front office experience and has drawn GM interest in the past, most recently from the Diamondbacks in 2016.
  • It “appears highly questionable” the Marlins will tender a contract to Derek Dietrich in the offseason, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Seeing Dietrich hit free agency early would be a surprise, considering he’s fresh off his third straight solid offensive season, capable of playing multiple positions and arbitration eligible for another two years (he’s set to earn a raise over his current salary of $2.9MM in 2019). The 29-year-old hit .265/.330/.421 (109 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 551 plate appearances this season, all while racking up significant time in left field and at first base. Dietrich has also garnered a fair amount of experience at second and third base since he debuted in 2013.
  • Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com provides a primer on Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper’s upcoming trip to free agency, listing several teams that could pursue the soon-to-be 26-year-old if he leaves the Nats. However, there’s real affection between the Nationals and Harper, notes Zuckerman, which could lead to a re-signing. Zuckerman wonders if Washington would be better off using the money it would allocate to Harper on multiple other areas of the roster, though, pointing out that the club would likely boast a quality outfield even without the six-time All-Star. Should Harper depart, the Nats wouldn’t receive much in the way of compensation, as Zuckerman writes. Assuming it stayed under the $197MM competitive-balance tax this year, Washington would get a compensatory pick before the third round of the 2019 draft. Otherwise, the team would land a selection after the fourth round.

NL East Notes: Bruce, Soroka, Marlins

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The emergence of Brandon Nimmo has left Jay Bruce as something of an odd man out with the Mets, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman notes that the Mets’ outfield in 2019 and beyond is likely to include Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, making it more difficult for Bruce to secure regular at-bats (barring a move to first base, which would come at the expense of the younger Dominic Smith). According to Sherman, Bruce can block trades to the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, Rays and Athletics, but he can be shipped anywhere else without his consent. Sherman runs through some speculative possibilities in which Bruce, who is owed $28MM from 2019-20, could be swapped out for a player earning at a comparable rate. Of course, it’s also worth noting that Nimmo’s bat has declined in each month of the season since a torrid start, while Cespedes and (to a lesser extent) Conforto come with injury question marks.

A few more notes out of the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that Braves righty Mike Soroka still hasn’t begun a throwing program as he continues rehabbing his right shoulder, which makes it increasingly unlikely that he’ll pitch again in 2018. If that’s the case, O’Brien notes that the organization could have Soroka pitch in the instructional league this fall before shutting him down for the winter in hopes of a healthier 2019 campaign. Soroka, who turned 21 last week, was impressive despite his young age in five starts earlier this season before shoulder woes landed him on the disabled list.
  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald recently wrote that any of Derek Dietrich, Dan Straily or Starlin Castro could yet be trade candidates for the Marlins in the month of August. Castro didn’t draw any serious interest prior to the non-waiver deadline, Jackson notes, but the Cubs and Indians checked in on Dietrich while the Athletics chatted with the Marlins about a potential re-acquisition of Straily (though those talks came prior to Oakland’s trade for Mike Fiers). Jackson notes that the Fish would want quality prospects in return for Straily if they moved him, as he’s controlled beyond the 2018 season. That seems like a tough sell, given Straily’s diminished strikeout, chase and swinging-strike rates as well as his drastic increase in walk rate.

Marlins Notes: Bour, Dietrich, Realmuto

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The Marlins have struck a deal (still unofficial) to ship out one reliever, and could still have more bullpen moves left to make. But the organization is also engaged on some position players. Here’s the latest …

  • While they haven’t seen loads of chatter in recent weeks, left-handed hitters Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich are both the subject of negotiations today, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has also cited (on Twitter) those two names, along with Starlin Castro and Cameron Maybin, as still-possible trade candidates as the deadline draws nigh. It’s worth noting that the latter two players (especially Castro) could perhaps still be moved in August if they aren’t dealt today.
  • The Athletics could be a team to watch on Dietrich, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes on Twitter. The Oakland organization has scouted Dietrich, per the report, and learned recently that Matt Joyce is going to be out a while longer with back issues, perhaps boosting the need for a lefty corner outfield bat. Dietrich, of course, can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present.
  • There doesn’t appear to be any momentum toward a deal involving the Marlins’ most interesting potential trade candidate. In fact, there has been no chatter at all today on backstop J.T. Realmuto, Heyman tweets. Of course, we’ve heard plenty of indication in recent months that several clubs have engaged with the Fish on the star catcher, who can be offered arbitration through 2020. Perhaps, then, it’s still possible something could come together — if a contender decides at the last minute to meet Miami’s understandably lofty asking price.

Cafardo’s Latest: Tribe, Cubs, Dodgers, Bucs

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Blue Jays outfielder Curtis Granderson, Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton and Marlins utilityman Derek Dietrich are on the Indians’ “radar”, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Either Granderson or Hamilton would add a much-needed upgrade to Cleveland’s outfield, which lost Tyler Naquin to the disabled list Saturday, while Dietrich may be able to help both at the keystone and in the outfield. Dietrich has spent the majority of his career at second base, but the 29-year-old – who happens to be a Cleveland native – has amassed 84 appearances in left field this season. Dietrich’s amid his best offensive season, having hit .283/.348/.454 with 13 home runs in 388 plate appearances.

More from Cafardo…

  • The Cubs and Rangers have already made a pair of trades in recent weeks, as Chicago acquired both Jesse Chavez and Cole Hamels from Texas. That may not be the end of the two teams’ dealings, though, with Cafardo writing that the Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela.
  • Along with the previously reported Brad Brach, the Dodgers have been scouting Tigers reliever Shane Greene, according to Cafardo. The 29-year-old Greene has pitched to a 4.19 ERA/3.98 ERA with 9.63 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 43.5 percent groundball rate in 43 innings this season. He’s on a meager salary this year ($1.95MM) and scheduled to go through arbitration one more time.
  • The resurgent Pirates seem intent on addressing their bullpen, as they’ve targeted both Kela (previously reported) and Brach to bolster their relief corps, per Cafardo. Brach, a 32-year-old who will be a free agent at season’s end, has logged a 4.85 ERA/4.01 FIP with 8.77 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 46.5 percent groundball rate in 39 innings.

Market Notes: Hand, Snell, Ziegler, Dietrich, Cubs, Mets

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In a piece in which he discusses several players whose All-Star participation will be colored by trade rumors, Bob Nightengale of USA Today holds a particularly interesting chat with Padres closer Brad Hand. The lefty has been through the rumor mill before, of course, so he knows what to expect. This time, though, he’s in the first season of a new deal he struck with the organization over the winter. That doesn’t mean that Hand is certain to remain in San Diego, however, and he gave a realistic appraisal of the implications of his extension from a broader perspective. “You can look at it from both sides,” Hand said. “It’s like you signed a long-term deal to stay in San Diego or you just increased your trade value by adding more years of control. Obviously, I have more value now, because instead of teams having control of me for one year, now it’s possibly for three years.” Though he expressed interest in remaining with the Friars, that’s ultimately not in Hand’s control, as his deal does not include trade protection.

Here’s more from the market:

  • With relatively few truly compelling rental starters available this summer, we’ve heard a variety of young hurlers mentioned as possible targets. Among them is emerging Rays lefty Blake Snell, who carries a sparkling 2.09 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 116 frames this year. It seems, though, that fans pining for Snell will need to adjust their expectations. A National League executive tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that there’s no reason whatsoever to think the southpaw is available. The unnamed front office member says his or her club was left with the impression that there’s “no chance” of making a deal for Snell, so much so that any suggestions put out about a possible deal are little more than “fictional garbage.” It always seemed it’d take a major haul to land Snell, who is just 25 years of age and won’t be a free agent until 2023, but this report indicates that even a bold effort may be fruitless to attempt. Frankly, that’s not terribly surprising: though the Rays have spun off many quality pitchers over the years, they have typically done so when those hurlers began to get expensive and close in on free agency.
  • The Dodgers have shown some interest in Marlins reliever Brad Ziegler, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). As Heyman notes, Ziegler has turned things around of late; indeed, since the calendar flipped to June, he has allowed just two earned runs on ten hits while recording a 19:3 K/BB ratio over 21 innings. The wily 38-year-old is earning $9MM this year before hitting the open market, and had struggled previously in a Marlins uniform, so there are some obvious limits to his value. Still, he’s showing now that he can still be effective and could well end up on the move to a contender this summer. Whether it’ll be the Dodges that get him remains to be seen. The Los Angeles club seemingly has opened quite a few potential trade avenues of late, but will likely also be judicious in taking on salary with the luxury tax line representing an important ongoing consideration.
  • In other news from Miami, the Marlins are getting some hits on utilityman Derek Dietrich, Heyman also tweets. Soon to turn 29, and controllable for two more years via arbitration after earning $2.9MM this season, the left-handed-hitting Dietrich is another interesting asset for the Fish. He’s slashing a sturdy .287/.353/.452 and can play in the infield or corner outfield. Of course, his defensive flexibility doesn’t really come with a positive reputation for glovework. Among the teams that “could” have interest, per the report, are the Brewers and Cubs. Both of those organizations seem to have more pressing needs and better potential fits elsewhere, though it’s always possible they could make Dietrich a priority if they really believe in his bat.
  • Speaking of less-than-perfect fits for the Cubs, Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic report (subscription link) that the organization is also considering some other potential outfielders. He cites Adam Jones of the Orioles and Curtis Granderson of the Blue Jays as players that have come up in internal discussions, at least, though neither really seems to be a priority. This report indicates that the driving force is less about roster need than adding a respected veteran, though the above-noted interest in Dietrich perhaps puts a slightly different spin on things. As The Athletic reporters note, bringing in a position player likely wouldn’t happen unless an existing asset is moved in a deal for a quality starter. Whether or not that takes place will surely be the primary factor in whether the Cubs do ultimately add another piece to the lineup.
  • In that same post, Rosenthal dedicates significant space to the Mets’ situation. He advises not to be distracted by reports suggesting shifting winds on the team’s stance regarding controllable aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The organization, Rosenthal suggests, must be and is willing to consider offers on either hurler. Of course, there’s also no need to strike a deal and the Mets have little cause to discount hefty sticker prices on both pitchers. This assessment of the circumstances aligns with common sense. After all, if a rival organization dangles a truly compelling trade package, the Mets could certainly face some tough choices. But there’s no reason to forego the opportunity to make those determinations before they’re even presented.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

Marlins Notes: Realmuto, Chen, Ziegler, Outfield, Starlin

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Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters today that he’s had multiple conversations with president of baseball operations Michael Hill and manager Don Mattingly about whether or not he’ll be traded, but he hasn’t gotten a firm answer one way or the other (hat tip to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). He also said that he has not spoken with part-owner Derek Jeter directly about the subject. That Realmuto hasn’t gotten a firm answer is entirely unsurprising; he’s a valuable trade asset, and the team can’t guarantee that anyone will rise to meet their asking price. They’ve been fielding offers on him for quite some time, and the countdown to opening day has now dwindled to under two months. Realmuto, of course, has been vocal throughout the offseason in his desire to be traded to another club. It was reported that the backstop requested a trade out Miami as early as mid-December, at which point the Fish had already shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Recent comments from his agent indicate that his stance hasn’t changed, and an arbitration defeat at Miami’s hands certainly won’t do anything to budge that stance.

A few other items out of Miami…

  • Hill says that lefty Wei-Yin Chen has been cleared to throw, and projects to be in the Marlins’ rotation (h/t Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). Whether or not he’ll be ready for the start of the season is uncertain. The 32-year-old Chen missed the bulk of last season due to recurring elbow issues, and is owed $60MM through the 2020 season. If he can remain healthy, he’ll likely slot in as the number two starter behind Dan Straily.
  • Hill also mentioned that Brad Ziegler is the team’s closer headed into spring training camp. Ziegler took over as the team’s closer last season following a trade of A.J. Ramos to the Mets, saving ten games for the club. His overall performance, however, left much to be desired; the soft-tosser’s 4.79 ERA isn’t indicative of a high-leverage reliever, and his 4.98 K/9 was the fourth-lowest among MLB relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. However, having Ziegler in a ninth-inning role will prevent young strikeout artists Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider from accruing saves that would otherwise boost their future arbitration raises.
  • Mattingly has Derek Dietrich “penciled in” as the starting left fielder (h/t Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald). The rest of the outfield picture, however, is “wide open.” The Marlins, of course, traded their entire starting outfield from last season; Stanton, Ozuna and Christian Yelich will all suit up for other clubs, leaving the team with a significant void to fill. Count recent outfield acquisitions Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra among the players who will compete for those jobs in camp.
  • Despite trade speculation earlier in the offseason, infielder Starlin Castro says he expects to be with the club come opening day (hat tip again to Jackson). The former Yankee adds that he is “happy to be here,” and is not looking to be traded now. Castro figures to open the season as the team’s second baseman. He put up a .300/.338/.454 slash line while playing for New York last season (good for a 110 wRC+), and chipped in a pair of stolen bases.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

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In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Quite frankly, there were too many arbitration agreements today to reasonably stuff into one post. So here’s a rundown of the National League players that have avoided arbitration on smaller deals (American League deals here). You can see all of the arbitration “action” thus far in a sortable, filterable format by checking out MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. All projections referenced in this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Wily Peralta and Carlos Torres have agreed to one-year deals, according to the team’s Twitter account. Peralta will earn $4.275MM (compared to $4.4MM projection), per Heyman. Torres was projected to make $2MM, but will get slightly more at $2.175MM, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter).
  • Reliever George Kontos gets $1.75MM from the Giants, Heyman tweets. He had projected at $1.7MM.
  • The Diamondbacks also reached agreement with lefty Patrick Corbin, righty Randall Delgado, and catcher Chris Herrmann, per Jack Magruder of Fan Rag (links to Twitter). Delgado gets $1.775MM and Herrmann receives $937,500. As for Corbin, he’ll take home $3.95MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter), which falls a bit shy of his $4.2MM projection.
  • Infielder Eduardo Nunez will receive $4.2MM from the Giants, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). San Francisco has also reached agreement with lefty Will Smith, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll receive $2.5MM, just over his $2.3MM projection, Heyman tweets.
  • The Phillies settled at $4.2MM with righty Jeanmar Gomez, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He falls just a big shy of his $4.6MM projection.
  • The Cardinals have announced arb deals with Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Rosenthal receives $6.4MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which is just $100K over his projection. Siegrist projected at $1.9MM, but his salary has yet to be reported.
  • Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have each avoided arbitration with the Mets. Harvey gets $5.125MM in his second arb year, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). Meanwhile, deGrom will receive $4.05MM in his first trip through the arb process, per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). New York has also agreed with lefty Josh Edgin, Rubin tweets, though terms remain unreported.

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