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Jason Vargas

Mets Sign Jason Vargas

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Feb. 19: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Vargas will earn $6MM in 2018 and $8MM in 2019. The option year is valued at $8MM and comes with a $2MM buyout.

Feb. 18: The deal is official, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Along with the previously reported incentives, it includes a $250K assignment bonus if the Mets trade Vargas, according to Heyman (Twitter link). To make room for Vargas, the Mets placed infielder T.J. Rivera on the 60-day DL. Rivera underwent Tommy John surgery last September.

Feb. 16, 1:20pm: Heyman tweets that Vargas will earn an additional $250K for reaching 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210 innings in each season of the deal.

10:15am: The option year is worth an additional $8MM, DiComo reports (on Twitter).

9:55am: Puma tweets that Vargas’ contract also contains an option for a third year. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets that Vargas will be guaranteed $16MM. Heyman adds that Vargas’ deal also contains incentives that will allow him to earn an additional $1.5MM per season, based on his innings totals.

9:44am: The Mets are in agreement with free-agent lefty Jason Vargas, pending a physical, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). It’s a two-year deal, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (Twitter link). Mike Puma of the New York Post had recently reported that the Mets were maintaining “solid interest” in Vargas, who is represented by CAA Baseball.

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Vargas, who turned 35 two weeks ago, will add some much-needed stability to a Mets rotation that has been devastated by injuries in recent seasons. Last year alone, the Mets saw Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman all combine to spend significant time on the disabled list, with only Jacob deGrom remaining healthy to shoulder a full season’s workload.

The 2017 season, meanwhile, served as a platform for the veteran Vargas to prove that he was healthy after Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2015-16 campaigns. It was a rather dichotomous season for Vargas, who surged to a 2.22 ERA through his first 101 innings of the season, earning a deserved All-Star berth in the process. Vargas’ early success was buoyed by an unsustainable 86 percent strand rate, however, and that figure cratered over the final three months as his control took a turn for the worse. After that sparkling 2.22 ERA through the end of June, Vargas limped to a 6.66 ERA in his final 16 starts.

It’s possible, of course, that some fatigue in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery impacted Vargas. Control has never been an issue for him, after all, but he nonetheless averaged nearly four walks per nine innings pitched over the final three months of the season. Overall, though, the results on the year were solid. Vargas totaled a 4.16 ERA while averaging 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 with a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate.

That body of work lines up fairly closely to the 4.01 ERA he turned in over 1082 2/3 innings from 2009-15 — the stretch from which he established himself as a viable Major League starter up until he underwent Tommy John surgery as a member of the Royals.

While the yearly breakdown of the contract remains unclear, the addition of Vargas should push the Mets’ payroll north of the $150MM mark for the second consecutive season, though that number includes David Wright’s $20MM salary, 75 percent of which is covered by insurance should the oft-injured former star head back to the 60-day DL. Vargas’ two-year deal pushes the team’s 2019 commitments well beyond $90MM more than a year in advance as well (though, again, 75 percent of Wright’s $15MM salary next season is covered by insurance).

This will mark the second stint with the Mets for Vargas, who was traded to New York from Miami in the 2006 deal that sent Matt Lindstrom to the Marlins. Vargas only pitched 10 1/3 innings in the Majors with the Mets the first time around and was ultimately traded to the Mariners in the 2008, three-team J.J. Putz swap. He’ll be reunited with former Royals pitching coach in Queens, giving him some added familiarity as he re-acclimates to his new surroundings.

For the Mets, the Vargas addition is somewhat surprisingly the third multi-year free-agent pickup that has transpired after reports suggesting that the team had limited remaining funds. After signing Anthony Swarzak to a two-year, $14MM deal back in December, the Mets have now added Jay Bruce (three years, $39MM), Todd Frazier (two years, $17MM) and Vargas, in addition to more modest one-year commitments for Jose Reyes ($2MM) and Adrian Gonzalez ($545K).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Maintaining Interest In Jason Vargas

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The Mets are maintaining “solid interest” in free-agent lefty Jason Vargas, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. The 35-year-old Vargas should would give the Mets some much-needed stability at the back of the rotation and could presumably be had on a short-term commitment.

Vargas recently wrapped up a four-year, $32MM contract with the Royals that featured a pair of healthy seasons in the first and last years of the contract, while the middle two (2015-16) were largely wiped out by Tommy John surgery. In his first full season back from surgery, Vargas made 32 starts for Kansas City, totaling 179 1/3 innings and being named to the All-Star team for the first time in a career that has spanned parts of 12 seasons.

That All-Star berth came on the heels of a 2.22 ERA through the season’s first three months, though Vargas achieved that mark by stranding an unsustainable 86 percent of the baserunners he allowed. That number came crashing back to Earth in the season’s second half (69.3 percent), and the pristine control that Vargas showed through the season’s first 101 innings eluded him, as he averaged 3.9 walks per nine innings pitched over his final 16 starts.

Vargas pitched to a 6.66 ERA in those 16 starts, leaving his final 2017 numbers looking solid but not especially impressive. The lefty turned in a 4.16 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate. That work is a fairly close match for the 4.01 ERA he turned in over 1082 2/3 innings from 2009-15 upon establishing himself as a big league regular up until his 2015 Tommy John procedure.

Suffice it to say, Vargas wouldn’t give the Mets a massive boost at the top of their rotation. He would, however, be a fairly reliable source of innings in the middle of their rotation, and few teams could use stable innings to round out their starting corps more than the Mets. Only Jacob deGrom managed a full, healthy season in the Mets’ once-vaunted rotation last year, as Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman all saw significant time on the disabled list. Mets starters posted a collective 5.14 ERA and totaled just 865 2/3 innings in 2017, both of which were the fourth-worst marks among all 30 Major League teams.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

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It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

  • When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
  • While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
  • The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
  • Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
  • The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
  • The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
  • In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

Twins Reportedly Make Formal Offer To Yu Darvish

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After several months of back and forth negotiations, the Twins have submitted a formal offer to Yu Darvish’s camp, reports Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN in the latest episode of his podcast (audio link, Twins talk starting up at the 2:25 mark and running through 11:00).

Exact parameters of the offer aren’t known, but Wolfson cites multiple sources in reporting that the offer is four or five years in length. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) reported yesterday that Darvish has received multiple offers worth $100M+, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier today that he has “several” five-year offers. Given all three of those reports, it certainly seems plausible that the Twins have put forth a nine-figure offer to Darvish, which would easily be the largest commitment they’ve ever made to a free agent.

Minnesota, according to Wolfson, remains reluctant to push its offer for Darvish up into the six-year territory. To that end, while Darvish is the top target for the Twins, Minnesota has also remained in touch with the agents for a number of other free-agent starters, ranging from second-tier names like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Other names mentioned by Wolfson include Jaime Garcia, Chris Tillman and Jason Vargas, so the Twins are understandably casting a wide net in the event that Darvish chooses another suitor. Notably, the team hasn’t made an offer to either Lynn or Cobb.

Perhaps more interestingly, Wolfson adds that the Twins are “maintaining pretty regular trade talk” with the Rays about the possibility of acquiring some rotation help, though Tampa Bay remains largely resistant to the idea of parting with coveted top starter Chris Archer. Jake Odorizzi’s name has been connected to the Twins on multiple occasions this offseason, however, and he could yet remain a target for the Twins. (More generally, he adds that the Rays have quite a bit of interest in outfielder Max Kepler, who has been the Twins’ primary right fielder in each of the past two seasons despite the fact that he’s not yet 25 years of age.)

A trade, though, would likely be a more serious option in the event that Darvish signs elsewhere; Wolfson notes that even after learning that Ervin Santana will be out for 10 to 12 weeks following surgery on his right middle finger, the Twins are only looking to fill one rotation spot.

Even with Santana sidelined for as much as the first month of the season, the Twins don’t appear to be in any kind of panic mode. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote yesterday that the Twins believe Santana could be ready on the shorter end of his 10- to 12-week timeline. Even if he takes the full 12 weeks, Wolfson notes that the team will only need a fifth starter two or three times in April, given the large number of off days baked into the early-season schedule.

With Santana on the shelf, the Twins’ rotation will likely consist of whichever free agent/trade target they bring into the mix, in addition to Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. The team also has a pair of prospects that have dotted top 100 lists over the past two seasons in Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, plus veteran Phil Hughes returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Triple-A righties Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers each saw brief glimpses of MLB action last year as well and could be leaned on for a spot start this coming April. Reliever Tyler Duffey will be stretched back out and given a shot at starting once again this spring as well, Wolfson notes. Righty Trevor May would be another option, though he’s not expected to return until late May, per both Hayes and Wolfson.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t exactly lacking for depth, though the group of arms on which they’ll lean early in the year is, clearly, rife with question marks. A veteran to position at or near the top of the rotation looks all the more like a priority, given that context.

Latest On Pitching Plans For Rangers, Orioles Entering Winter Meetings

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Every team in baseball is still looking for pitching, so in that regard the Rangers and Orioles don’t stand out. But these two organizations are similarly situated in some regards; notably, each came into the offseason with rosters that appear to be capable but not certain of contention along with clear needs for significant improvement in their starting rotations.

For Texas, the Winter Meetings offer an opportunity and a challenge to chart a course that won’t involve Shohei Ohtani. While the pursuit of the two-way Japanese star is over, the team is still considering some novel approaches to its rotation usage. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes, that might involve a six or even four-man rotation setup, depending in no small part upon the team’s eventual moves. Of course, Mike Minor and Doug Fister were already brought aboard, but that doesn’t mean the club is done adding.

Notably, the Rangers aren’t just looking at budget arms. According to Grant, the club has not only checked in on quality veterans like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, but has “maintained some contact” with former star Yu Darvish and hasn’t yet ruled out a surprise reunion. While he was dealt away at the trade deadline after the sides failed to line up on an extension, Darvish’s roots in Texas obviously trace back to his initial entry to the majors. Grant cautions that the team isn’t planning to lead the charge after Darvish or another top hurler, but it’s notable nonetheless that there seems to be serious consideration.

It’s less pressing in some regards, but the Rangers will also be looking to improve their relief corps. Late-inning pieces, in particular, would clearly be on the wish list. One player to keep an eye on, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter), is righty Brandon Kintzler. Of course, he has also been linked to quite a few other organizations. The sinkerballer has obviously boosted his stock quite a bit with a hefty groundball rate and steady work in high-leverage situations over the past two seasons. Japanese reliever Kazuhisa Makita could also represent a potential target for Texas, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes.

The situation is somewhat different for the Orioles, whose need for rotation pieces is even greater than that of the Rangers. With multiple pieces needed and relatively little available payroll space, Baltimore isn’t going to dabble at the top of the market, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes. That’s essentially the same conclusion reached by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, who says the Orioles “really like” Cobb but don’t expect to be able to afford him.

Wary of the risks of a long-term pitching contract, the O’s plan instead to look further down the pecking order of rotation pieces. As Connolly explains, though, several of those pitchers have already gone off the market with early deals. Veteran righty Andrew Cashner is perhaps the most logical remaining mid-tier target for the team, he notes, while a variety of less costly pitchers also figure to be strongly considered. Both reports suggest southpaw Jason Vargas as a plausible name to bolster the back end of the rotation, so he’s certainly a player to watch.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Fiers, Hirano, Twins, Indians, Adams

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The rebuilding Tigers are pursuing a pair of potential bounce-back starters, right-handers Chris Tillman and Mike Fiers, as well as Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. On the other hand, they’re not after free agent starters Jason Vargas, Jeremy Hellickson or ex-Tiger Anibal Sanchez, according to McCosky. Detroit’s interest in Tillman has been known since last month, and he and Fiers look like strong candidates to sign one-year deals after enduring rough 2017 campaigns. Hirano also figures to land a short-term pact because of his age (34 in March), though he ran roughshod over hitters as a closer in Japan for most of the past decade. The Tigers join the Cardinals as the second team with reported interest in the righty.

More on Detroit and two of its American League Central rivals:

  • Although the Twins voided their contract with Dominican shortstop prospect Jelfry Marte last month after he failed a physical, they still “have a shot” to re-sign the 16-year-old, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press (on Twitter). Marte’s next deal will unsurprisingly come with a lesser bonus than the $3MM the Twins had given him, relays Berardino, who adds that there are “no hard feelings” between the player and the team. The Twins made two trades on Wednesday that reduced their remaining international bonus pool space for 2017-18, but they still have $1.25MM available, Berardino notes.
  • If the Indians don’t re-sign free agent first baseman Carlos Santana and outfielder Jay Bruce, the recently non-tendered Matt Adams could make sense as a first base/designated hitter option, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com observes. Adams and Edwin Encarnacion would share the two positions, suggests Hoynes, who lists several other non-tendered players (Terrance Gore, Drew Smyly, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jared Hughes, Hector Rondon and Bruce Rondon) as possible buy-low targets for the Indians.
  • The Twins have hired Pete Maki as their minor league pitching coordinator, Aaron Fitt of D1Baseball.com reports (on Twitter). Maki had been on Duke University’s staff since July 2015, serving as its pitching coach for two seasons. Duke had a combined four pitchers come off the board in the previous two drafts, the highest being fifth-rounder Bailey Clark (Cubs, No. 164) in 2016.
  • Catcher Derek Norris, whom the Tigers signed to a minor league contract Tuesday, will earn a base salary of $1.2MM if he cracks their roster, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Norris could also rake in $300K in incentives.

Heyman’s Latest: Moore, Cain, Rangers, Vargas/O’s, Rodney/D-Backs

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In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks into the Royals front office. Owner David Glass is “considering a possible two-year extension” for GM Dayton Moore, writes Heyman, even though Moore has “no leverage” given that he’s already under contract for three more seasons. This all arises after Glass declined to allow the Braves to speak with Moore about changing squads. While Moore has expressed gratitude to ownership, his recent comments were interesting, if difficult to interpret with any precision. All told, it seems there could still be some unresolved matters in the Kansas City front office.

Let’s look at a few more items from Heyman of particular relevance to the still-developing hot stove season:

  • Top free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain has drawn some early interest from the Mets and Giants, according to Heyman. As regards the New York organization, this information seems to conflict with recent statements from Mets GM Sandy Alderson — though as ever it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt and acknowledging fluidity this time of year. As for the Giants, we at MLBTR pegged San Francisco as the likeliest landing spot for Cain, though some doubt whether the organization will go over the luxury tax line and sacrifice draft choices to land him. At a minimum, though, the organization would seem to be wise to do some diligence on the possibility.
  • The Rangers have “looked into” free agent righties Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, says Heyman. While it’s not clear just how serious the interest is, the link isn’t surprising. Texas clearly needs arms; indeed, MLBTR guessed they’d land Lynn. While Chatwood doesn’t have nearly the track record of results that Lynn does, he is an intriguing option in his own right and shares some of the characteristics of Andrew Cashner — the former Ranger free agent signee who is himself back on the open market.
  • Another team with a desire to add several starters (and with reputed interest in Chatwood) is the Orioles. The Baltimore front office met with agents for lefty Jason Vargas during the GM Meetings, Heyman reports. The 34-year-old veteran seems to be a good match for the O’s, as we predicted, since the team needs to find so many rotation innings and can’t afford to make major long-term commitments to multiple starters.
  • The Diamondbacks are “open” to bringing back Fernando Rodney, GM Mike Hazen tells Heyman. Arizona is facing a difficult payroll situation but obviously will be looking to maintain and improve upon a Wild Card-winning roster. Though Rodney didn’t dominate last year, he’s still throwing mid-nineties heat and generating quite a few swings and misses — and obviously met with the approval of the D-Backs’ brass in the closer’s role. Beyond improving the pen, the Arizona priority is to improve in the outfield, per the report. That could mean pursuing under-the-radar additions; though Hazen says he’s not ruling out a return for J.D. Martinez, that’d almost certainly require the kind of payroll increase that does not appear to be under consideration.

Orioles Interested In Andrew Cashner, Jason Vargas

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The Orioles are known to be on the hunt for multiple starting pitchers this offseason — possibly as many as three — and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the team has “definite” interest in righty Andrew Cashner and southpaw Jason Vargas. GM Dan Duquette has suggested in recent weeks that he’d prefer to add at least one lefty to his rotation, and Vargas would accomplish that goal.

Neither Cashner nor Vargas are among the top tier of free-agent starters, though it’s long seemed unlikely that the O’s would play at the top of the market. Given the team’s sizable needs in the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, the Orioles will most likely have to add multiple arms from the second and third tiers of free-agent starters to fill out the starting five. Starting pitching, of course, is hardly Baltimore’s only need. The O’s could also very well take a look at some depth options in both the infield and the outfield, as they currently project to rely heavily upon a host of young and/or unproven assets (e.g. Tim Beckham at shortstop, Trey Mancini and Austin Hays in the outfield corners).

Baltimore currently has nearly $62MM committed to just four players in 2018: first baseman Chris Davis, center fielder Adam Jones, DH Mark Trumbo and setup man Darren O’Day. The payroll is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to balloon by another $55.1MM following a sizable slate of arbitration raises to another seven players, highlighted by Manny Machado and Zach Britton. In all, the O’s look to be on the hook for just under $127MM in 2018 before so much as spending a single penny this winter.

Assuming the payroll won’t expand too far beyond the $164MM mark at which the Orioles entered the 2017 season, that’d leave Baltimore with roughly $35-40MM to spend on new salary for the 2018 campaign. That’s not an insignificant amount of funds, to be sure, but that money will go quickly if the O’s truly intend to add three new starters and deepen their pool of position players.

Neither Cashner nor Vargas figures to break the bank, so to speak. We pegged Cashner for a two-year, $20MM contract on last week’s top 50 free-agent list and projected a one-year, $10MM pact for Vargas on the heels of a poor finish to the 2017 season. Generally speaking, it’d be a surprise to see either command more than a $12MM annual commitment in free agency, and the O’s could certainly backload any multi-year deals issued to free agents in an effort to defer some of the dollars to 2019, when some combination of Machado, Britton and Jones will all likely be off the books.

Of course, the fact that so many key Orioles contributors are just one year from the open market will play into the offseason calculus as well. The Orioles have to be cognizant of the fact that if the season goes south early on in the 2018 campaign, they’ll be faced with the unpleasant notion of having to listen to offers on longtime stars like Machado, Britton and Jones.

With that possibility looming, the team may not wish to commit to lengthy multi-year deals in free agency this winter. Speaking from a purely speculative standpoint, shorter-term deals that would allow the club to pivot in the event of a poor start to the year could be more desirable than locking in a mid-rotation arm like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb on a three- or four-year pact that could prove more difficult to move.

Cashner, 31, gave the Rangers 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball but did so with one of baseball’s worst strikeout rates (4.6 K/9) and a lackluster walk rate (3.5 BB/9). Fielding-independent ERA alternatives like FIP (4.61), xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52) were all considerably more bearish on his 2017 output.

The 35-year-old Vargas turned in an All-Star first half in 2017, though the 2.22 ERA he carried through the end of June was buoyed by an unsustainable 86 percent strand rate. Vargas’ control slipped in the season’s final three months (3.9 BB/9), and his BABIP and strand rate regressed (substantially so in the case of the latter), leading to a bloated 6.66 ERA in the final three months of the 2017 campaign.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Farrell, Orioles, Pitching, Rays

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It was on this day in 1956 that Don Larsen made baseball history by tossing a perfect game in Game Five of the World Series.  The right-hander had posted a 3.19 ERA over 276 2/3 IP for the Yankees in 1955-56, though he hadn’t yet fully established himself in the rotation, starting only 33 of his 57 appearances for the Bronx Bombers.  Larsen also started Game Two of the 1956 Series but lasted only 1 2/3 innings thanks to four unearned runs allowed, making his dominance over the Dodgers just three days later even more unexpected.  Larsen’s masterpiece was the only no-hit game in postseason history until the Phillies’ Roy Halladay tossed a no-no against the Reds in the 2010 NL Division Series.

Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • “There is considerable curiosity within the industry about” how the Red Sox will handle another potential early exit in the ALDS, ESPN’s Scott Lauber writes, with John Farrell’s job security being a major topic.  A managerial change might be popular with Boston fans, though Lauber points out that some of the team’s larger issues (such as the lack of power on the roster) aren’t Farrell’s fault.  Farrell has a World Series championship, three AL East titles and a 432-378 record in five years as the Red Sox manager, though his contract only runs through the end of the 2018 season.
  • With the Orioles looking for pitching help this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko lists Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner as likely targets given that the team has been interested in all three in the past.  Former Oriole Miguel Gonzalez is also a good bet, since Baltimore tried to re-acquire the right-hander in August before the Rangers outbid the O’s in trade talks with the White Sox.  Since the Orioles have a stated need for left-handed starters, Jorge De La Rosa could be another option since the O’s were also interested in his services a few years ago, though Kubatko notes that de la Rosa worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Diamondbacks in 2017.
  • “It was just time” for the Rays to shake up their coaching staff, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, though this need manifested itself in a few different ways.  Pitching coach Jim Hickey, for instance, said he had a “difference of opinion” about the team’s plan to go to the bullpen earlier in the games.  Hickey already seemed likely to leave when his contract was up after the 2018 season, with an eye towards joining a more consistent contender.  The Mets and Cardinals have already been rumored to be after Hickey to fill their pitching coach vacancies this winter.  The Rays’ changes have resulted in just one coach (bullpen coach Stan Boroski) remaining from Joe Maddon’s staff, so manager Kevin Cash now has more of his own people in place.

Heyman’s Latest: Colon, Cashner, Vargas, Upton, Bridwell, Marlins, Cardinals

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Here’s the latest hot stove buzz from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, from his weekly collections of American League notes and National League notes…

  • Bartolo Colon feels he can play “just one” more season.  A return in 2018 would make it 21 seasons in the big leagues for Colon, who turns 45 in May.  The veteran has become a fan favorite around baseball thanks to his unlikely late-career revival, though Colon finally started to look his age in 2017, posting a 6.48 ERA over 143 innings with the Twins and Braves.  Despite his recent struggles, Colon seems to be a likely candidate to land a low-cost MLB contract with a team next year, given his lengthy track record.
  • The Rangers are considering issuing a qualifying offer to Andrew Cashner.  This would ensure that Texas received some draft pick compensation if Cashner rejected the QO, though given the Rangers’ need for pitching, they could welcome the chance to bring back Cashner on a one-year deal.  Still, since the QO carries a hefty cost of $18.1MM, it is still a little surprising that Texas is considering issuing one to Cashner, who is a decent candidate to accept.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently covered Cashner’s interesting offseason case in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece, outlining the many pros and cons suitors face in weighing a Cashner this winter.
  • In less-surprising qualifying offer news, the Royals are a virtual lock to extend the QO to Lorenzo Cain but aren’t planning to issue one to Jason Vargas.  Tommy John surgery sidelined Vargas for much of his three-year stint in Kansas City, though he was mostly effective (4.16 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.31 K/BB rate) over 179 2/3 IP in 2017.  Given that TJ surgery and the fact that Vargas turns 35 in February, he’d seem to be a good candidate to accept a qualifying offer, and the Royals probably don’t want an $18.1MM salary on the books as they embark on a possible rebuild.
  • There apparently haven’t been any talks between the Angels and Justin Upton about his opt-out clause, which Heyman finds “interesting.”  There isn’t any immediate rush, of course, as Upton doesn’t need to make his decision until three days after the World Series is over.  “Most see it as a very close call” as to whether Upton will actually opt out of the four years and $88.5MM remaining on his deal given the mutual interest between he and the Angels.  The possibility exists that the two sides could work out an extension to tack another year or two beyond the current end of Upton’s deal, though the lack of talks indicates that scenario has yet to be explored.
  • The Angels initially tried to acquire Parker Bridwell from the Orioles last year before finally landing the right-hander in April for what Heyman describes as “just a small amount of cash.”  This minor deal at the time ended up being a steal for the Halos, as Bridwell delivered a 3.64 ERA over 121 innings, starting 20 of his 21 appearances for Los Angeles.
  • According to one Marlins player, the Cardinals reportedly expressed interest in Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Brad Ziegler this summer, with Ziegler’s name surfacing after Trevor Rosenthal was lost to Tommy John surgery in late August.  The Cards’ interest in Ozuna (and other Miami outfielders) is known, though this is the first time Gordon and Ziegler have been linked to St. Louis.  It makes sense that the Cards would’ve checked in on Ziegler given their sudden need for relief help after Rosenthal went down, though it remains to be seen if Ziegler would be a trade target this winter as the team looks to bolster its pen.  Ziegler has a hefty $9MM salary in 2018, though the Marlins could eat some of that money to make a deal happen.  Gordon would be an even pricier addition at $38MM owed through the 2020 season, plus a $14MM vesting option for 2021.
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