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Javier Baez

Mets Place Javier Baez On Injured List

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The Mets announced they’ve placed infielder Javier Báez on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 12, with back spasms. Travis Blankenhorn has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to take his place on the active roster.

New York acquired Báez from the Cubs in the hope that he could hold down shortstop while Francisco Lindor recovered from a right oblique strain. Unfortunately, Báez has appeared in just ten games as a Met before landing on the IL himself. There’s no indication he’s facing an especially long-term absence, but any missed time is an unwelcome development for a team that sits half a game behind the Phillies in a tight NL East race.

It’s been a confounding season for Báez, who is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. The 28-year-old has blasted 24 home runs over 398 plate appearances, posting a big .230 isolated power (slugging minus batting average). He’s continued to rate as a plus defensive shortstop and baserunner as well, again demonstrating his longstanding ability to impact the game in myriad ways.

The power output has come with a highly concerning approach, though. Báez has always been a free-swinger, but he’s chasing more often and making less contact than ever before. His 62.3% contact rate is the second-lowest (better only than Mike Zunino’s) among the 223 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this year. Báez’s 36.4% strikeout rate, meanwhile, is third-highest among that same group (trailing only Zunino and Bobby Dalbec). Overall, his .241/.285/.470 line split between Chicago and New York is exactly league average by measure of wRC+, although Báez has gotten to that production in anything but an average way.

Javier Baez Leaves Game Due To Left Hip Tightness

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The Mets have now dropped seven of their last eight games following today’s 3-0 shutout loss to the Phillies, and the bad news continued beyond the box score for New York.  Javier Baez left the game due to left hip tightness, as the shortstop had to be removed following a painful at-bat in the top of the fifth inning.  After hitting a grounder, Baez remained in the batter’s box in obvious discomfort, and immediately left the field.

Baez is currently considered day-to-day with the injury, and manager Luis Rojas provided some hope in telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Tim Britton) that “we’re more optimistic now” postgame than at the time Baez left the game.  Rojas initially feared an oblique injury, similar to the one that has sidelined Francisco Lindor and may have provided the impetus for the Mets to acquire Baez at the trade deadline in the first place.

While Baez has gotten off to a slow start with his new team, the last thing the reeling Mets need is to lose another player to the injured list.  Jonathan Villar is the likeliest candidate to take over at shortstop should Baez need a day or two to get better, but if an IL stint is indeed required, the Mets are suddenly quite thin at shortstop since Lindor, Luis Guillorme, and Jose Peraza are all still recovering from injuries.

Cubs’ Hoyer Discusses Lack Of Extensions For Core Players

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It’s been a surreal week for Cubs fans, watching the core of the 2016 World Series club head out the door at the trade deadline in exchange for a series of prospects. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have been the faces of the Cubs for a half decade now, but they now find themselves with the Giants, Yankees and Mets, respectively. Also out the door are closer Craig Kimbrel, right-hander Ryan Tepera, lefty Andrew Chafin, outfielder Joc Pederson and outfielder Jake Marisnick.

Generally speaking, fans knew this was coming, but even after president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made clear that the Cubs were shifting to a seller’s mindset, there were many who questioned just how far the sale would go. Bryant had long been viewed as a trade candidate after talks with him had failed to materialize in a deal multiple times in the past. Baez, however, had spoken more optimistically about reaching a deal in the past, as had Rizzo. Now, days after the deadline, Hoyer expressed frustration during a radio interview on ESPN 1000.

“I put my head on the pillow every night knowing that we put our best foot forward,” said Hoyer (Twitter thread via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers). “The extensions we offered these guys will hold up exceptionally well, historically they’ll hold up exceptionally well against the open market. I don’t know why guys didn’t want to sign. I don’t know why guys didn’t even want to counteroffer sometimes.”

Hoyer lamented that while many players publicly expressed interest in staying long-term, “when we sat down to do negotiations, that wasn’t how they acted.” Somewhat curiously, he pointed across town to the White Sox, noting that Lance Lynn “could’ve gotten more on the open market this winter but he said ’I want to stay here.'” Of course, Lynn is a 34-year-old trade acquisition who isn’t at all in the same position as the core Cubs who were dealt last Friday, and the implication of blame residing with the now-former Cubs players lacks plenty of critical context.

Rizzo, for instance, would’ve been a free agent in the 2018-19 offseason had he not inked a seven-year, $41MM contract back in May 2013. That deal contained a pair of club options and ultimately wound up paying him $75MM over nine years. There’s a difference in taking the “I want to stay here” approach when you’re an inexperienced pre-arbitration player and a soon-to-be free agent, but Rizzo surely felt he’d already given the Cubs one major break and may have been less inclined to do so a second time. Hoyer was clear that his comments were more general and that not all applied to all three of this core trio, so perhaps the Lynn comparison wasn’t intended to strike a parallel with Rizzo — but it’s difficult to overlook that disconnect.

In Hoyer’s defense, we don’t know how many attempts were made to further extend that contract over the years, but Rizzo’s initial extension proved a to be an overwhelming bargain for the club. We do know that back in March, Hoyer proclaimed he was “very confident” that the Cubs would extend Rizzo. That optimism, which came after Rizzo had already turned down a reported five-year, $70MM offer, didn’t manifest in a deal.

Hoyer is probably correct in asserting that said offer will hold up well against open-market bids, barring a huge post-trade surge for Rizzo. That said, it’s also not hard to see why Rizzo would be nonplused with the offer, if the reported terms were indeed accurate. He was entering the final season of the previously mentioned bargain extension, and a year prior he’d seen the Cardinals lock up Paul Goldschmidt for nearly twice as much — a contract that would begin with Goldschmidt’s age-32 season. Next year is Rizzo’s age-32 season. There’s no ignoring that Rizzo was coming off a down season in 2020, but the gap in those offers is still rather sizable, to say the least.

Baez, meanwhile, spoke openly and often about his desire to remain with the Cubs long-term — just as they similarly expressed interest in keeping him. Talks between the two parties seemed to be ongoing for years, with his chances of striking an accord regularly framed as the most favorable of this core trio.

As with the Rizzo/Lynn bit, it’s important to remember that Hoyer was speaking generally rather than addressing all of his former core players. But his assertion that some players didn’t even bother to counter the team’s extension offers certainly seemed to catch the attention of Baez’s agent, Nick Chanock of Wasserman. Chanock tells ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that the Baez camp did indeed present the Cubs with a counterproposal not long before the Covid-19 pandemic shut the league down. Rogers goes on to write that the team didn’t rekindle those talks, nor did they make a final offer to Baez before trading him.

Reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman earlier this summer suggested that the Cubs offered Baez anywhere from $160MM to $180MM, though the length of those deals isn’t clear. It’s also worth noting that at the time, Baez was a 27-year-old shortstop coming off consecutive six-WAR, All-Star seasons — one of which saw him finish runner-up in NL MVP voting. As with Rizzo, that numbers reported by Olney and Heyman will likely “hold up historically” against any open-market earnings for Baez this winter, but that’s only true in light of Baez’s 2020-21 decline at the plate.

Arguably the most notable bit of context in all this is the Cubs’ brazen manipulation of Bryant’s service time, wherein they called him up to the Majors in 2015 the first day he was assured of missing a full year of service that season. In doing so, they effectively pushed his free agency back a year. Bryant went on to win NL Rookie of the Year honors and NL MVP honors over the next two seasons while earning scarcely more than the league minimum.

The Cubs eventually won a service time grievance over Bryant after a league-appointed arbitrator ruled in the team’s favor. Bryant was not granted the extra year of service he sought. No one would expect any team executive to willingly bring such matters up in an interview of this nature, but that’s a clear piece of the puzzle being left untouched in Hoyer’s telling of the situation.

On the one hand, it’s refreshing to see a team’s president of baseball operations speak with candor rather than deliver the same tropes we hear time and again. On the other, it’s almost befuddling to state that it’d be “bad faith” to go into specifics regarding individual negotiations only to then cast blame on the entire group of players while painting with broad strokes. Nearly any GM or agent, when discussing contract negotiations, will break out some variation of the “it takes two to tango” cliche. Hoyer’s assertion that the Cubs “put our best foot forward and tried our hardest, but it was not reciprocated,” however, puts the onus squarely on the players.

Perhaps in some cases, that’s where the “fault” (for lack of a better term) should lie. Perhaps the team will have better luck this winter with catcher Willson Contreras, who said this weekend that even in spite of the sell-off, he hoped to remain with the Cubs and was “happy to talk” if the team “wants to rebuild around me.” But comments questioning the extent to which former teammates were committed to the team don’t seem the best way to set the table for negotiations with Contreras or any other player — and they’re unlikely to assuage a fanbase that has heard more about the luxury tax and revenue losses for the past few years than about any headway in retaining the core players who changed hands last week.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Deadline Moves

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The Cubs were one of the busiest teams of deadline season, moving many of their veteran players in a series of trades that officially closed the curse-breaking era of Wrigleyville baseball.  However, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer feels the next window of contention will open sooner rather than later thanks to these deals, telling The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro and other reporters that “we did everything we could today and over the last week to try to reset this organization and to try to make the best decisions possible.”

Citing the recent examples of the Phillies, Tigers, and Giants, Hoyer wanted to avoid a scenario that would’ve seen the Cubs perhaps wait too long to make that “reset,” as Hoyer said those other clubs “basically ran to the end of the cliff and they fell off and they had to rebuild.”  While Hoyer said that the organization was “willing to go to that point if this was a winning team this year,” the team’s 11-game losing streak from June 25 to July 6 essentially ended the Cubs’ chances of competing in the NL Central, especially since the Brewers got hot and broke out to a big lead.

Rather than seeing impending free agents like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, or Anthony Rizzo all potentially leave for nothing this winter, the decision was made to move them at the deadline.  “We were able to, in my mind, speed that process up dramatically because we’re able to acquire a lot of young talent, some on the major-league team, some that’ll be in the minors,” Hoyer said.

Of course, there was no shortage of “real emotion” that went into trading some of the iconic Cubs figures of recent years, and Hoyer didn’t rule out pursuing reunions with any of these now-former stars in free agency this winter.  As Montemurro notes, however, such re-signings are perhaps a little unlikely, given how the Cubs had extension talks with several of their top players dating back to 2020, yet couldn’t come to terms on a long-term deal.

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings on at least Baez’s side, as the newly-minted Mets infielder told Russell Dorsey of The Chicago Sun-Times that “I think the communication here has been really good between the players in the [Cubs’] front office.  They talked to us straight up told us what the chances were.  We understand the business side.  It happens.  Hopefully happens for the best for the organization.”

Catcher Willson Contreras (controlled through the 2022 season) is one of the few notable stars remaining on the roster, and it stands to reason that the Cubs might explore trading Contreras this winter, after discussing some potential deals with teams last offseason.  For Contreras’ part, however, he would “love to stay here….This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.”

Mets Designate Anthony Banda, Outright Akeem Bostick

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The Mets announced that left-hander Anthony Banda has been designated for assignment, while right-hander Akeem Bostick has been outrighted to Triple-A.  (Bostick was DFA’ed yesterday as part of the Mets’ roster shuffles on deadline day.)  The moves open up some 40-man roster space for the two particulars of yesterday’s big trade with the Cubs — Javier Baez joins New York’s active roster, while righty Trevor Williams was optioned to Triple-A.

The Giants dealt Banda to the Mets at the start of July, and Banda could potentially last only a month in his latest organization.  Banda’s contract was selected by New York on July 19, and he posted a 7.36 ERA over five appearances and 7 1/3 innings with the team.

A Tommy John surgery and other injuries have hampered the career of Banda, who drew notice as a prospect during his time in the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rays farm system.  That potential led Banda to be included as part of a pair of notable trades — exactly seven years ago today, the Brewers sent Banda and Mitch Haniger to the D’Backs for Gerardo Parra, and then he was moved to the Rays as part of a big three-team trade in February 2018.  At the big league level, Banda has tossed only 58 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, posting a 6.14 ERA.

Mets Acquire Javier Baez, Trevor Williams

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The Mets and Cubs announced agreement on a deal sending star shortstop Javier Baez to Queens. He’ll be accompanied by right-hander Trevor Williams, with outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong sent back to Chicago in return.

Between landing Francisco Lindor during the offseason and now trading for Baez, the Mets have obtained two of the sport’s best shortstops (who are also great friends with each other) within the span of a few months.  Baez is a free agent after the season, so while this is quite possibly a short-term pickup meant to only help the Mets in 2021, it will nonetheless be a huge boost to New York’s chances of winning the NL East and making a run in October.

The trade ends a very memorable eight-season run for Baez in Wrigleyville, after he was selected with the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft.  Beginning his career as a free-swinging power bat, Baez’s propensity for striking out never really went away (his 131 whiffs leads the league this year), but he has hit .269/.307/.502 with 116 homers over 2310 PA since the start of the 2017 season.  That includes a huge 2018 season that saw Baez finish second in NL MVP voting, while also winning a Silver Slugger Award.

As accomplished as Baez is at the plate, his defense has become his calling card.  It took Baez until 2020 to capture his first Gold Glove, but his shortstop ability has been celebrated for years, even if he didn’t fully leave second (or even third) base duty until 2019.  Since Lindor has played only as a shortstop at the MLB level, Baez is the likelier of the two to be moved around the diamond as the Mets’ needs develop.

Most of the Mets’ rumors were centered around the team’s search for third base help, though Lindor’s recent placement on the 10-day injured list seemed to expand the search to the shortstop position as well.  Baez can handle short until Lindor is healthy, and could then slide over to play second base or potentially even third base, giving the Mets a clear and immediate upgrade to their infield defense.  Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis are the current first-choice options at second and third base, though either could be moved into the outfield, with McNeil being the more versatile of the two.

Williams will add depth to a Mets rotation that has been thinned by injuries, though once everyone is at full health, Williams is likely to be relegated to bullpen duty.  The 29-year-old right-hander has a 5.06 ERA over 58 2/3 innings for the Cubs this season, and there isn’t much to like about his Statcast metrics.  That said, Williams’ SIERA is a more palatable 4.18, and he has experienced some misfortune — a .343 BABIP, and a .358 wOBA that is far above his .320 xwOBA.

The Baez deal continues a Cubs fire sale that has already seen the likes of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Joc Pederson all dealt. The Mets announced they’ve received an undisclosed amount of cash in the deal. Baez has roughly $3.96MM remaining on his $11.65MM salary for the 2021 season.  The Mets still have some breathing room under the $210MM luxury tax threshold, as only the prorated portion of that $11.65MM counts against their tax number (and the Cubs might are also kicking in some money).

In exchange for Baez and Williams, the Cubs will receive a solid but not quite elite prospect in Crow-Armstrong, who wasn’t listed by either MLB Pipeline (fifth) or Baseball America (sixth) as one of New York’s top four prospects.  Still, Crow-Armstrong was selected 19th overall just last summer, and he began his pro career with a 1.024 OPS over the very small sample size of 32 PA for the Mets’ A-ball affiliate before having to undergo shoulder surgery.

The 19-year-old Crow-Armstrong might already be just about MLB-ready on the defensive front, as he has an excellent throwing arm and speed that makes him a fit as a future center fielder.  As Pipeline’s scouting report simply puts it, “the offensive game will be a work in progress,” as Crow-Armstrong has shown only power potential thus far rather than any real power.  He does make a lot of contact, however, and his speed could be a difference-maker in helping him turn grounders into singles or singles into doubles.

Andy Martino of SNY reported the Mets’ acquisition of Baez. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that New York was also acquiring Williams, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Crow-Armstrong was headed back to Chicago in return. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark initially reported the two sides were making progress on a trade, with The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweeting that a pitcher might also be involved as part of the negotiations.

Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story

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The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.

Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.

Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.

Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.

The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.

As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.

Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.

The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.

It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.

Latest On Interest In Cubs’ Trade Chips

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12:41PM: The White Sox and Red Sox are two of at least seven teams interested in Kimbrel, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine writes, while the White Sox have also scouted another Cubs reliever in Ryan Tepera.

10:49AM: The Cubs completed another trade last night in sending Andrew Chafin to the Athletics, setting the stage for what should be a very busy week of transactions for Chicago in advance of Friday’s 3pm CT trade deadline.  Many of the biggest names remain, and rumors continue to circulate about where these top names could land.

Closer Craig Kimbrel is drawing much of the buzz, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Padres are among the teams interested in the veteran reliever.  While many of the Cubs’ most notable trade chips are rental players, Kimbrel is controlled through the 2022 season due to a $16MM club option.  He also has around $5.5MM remaining in salary for this season, so he isn’t an entirely inexpensive proposition for a team looking at the right-hander as just a rental.

This is a particular factor for a team like the Padres, who are facing a luxury tax overage for the first time in franchise history.  Team ownership is willing to make that leap beyond the $210MM payroll threshold, though the Padres are naturally exploring ways (such as unloading Eric Hosmer’s contract) to avoid the tax if at all possible.

The Red Sox “have at least had preliminary conversations ” with the Cubs about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, which seems like a natural fit considering how little production the Sox have received from the first base position this season.  Boston is the first team officially linked to Rizzo on the rumor mill, as Passan writes that Rizzo’s market “is not so robust” since he is a veteran position player who is a free agent after the year.

In fact, there has been more speculation about Rizzo possibly staying with the Cubs rather than leaving, even though extension talks in Spring Training failed to produce a new contract.  Recent reports suggested that the Cubs would look to again discuss extensions with both Rizzo and Javier Baez prior to the deadline, but NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports that “no extension talks are happening with” either player.

This doesn’t mean that either will be traded, however.  In fact, Wittenmyer hears from sources around baseball that the Cubs will be keeping both Baez and Kyle Hendricks beyond Friday’s deadline.  (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that the Cubs weren’t looking to move Hendricks and that a trade was unlikely.)  It isn’t quite as firm about whether or not Rizzo could remain or be dealt to Boston or another team, but if the first baseman is kept, Wittenmyer writes that the Cubs will again look into extending both Rizzo and Baez before they reach free agency this winter.

Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades

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The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original  seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.

Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.

As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.

Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll  turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.

For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.

Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.

The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.

As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.

Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.

Cubs’ Recent Losing Streak Changes Trade Deadline Outlook

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A couple weeks ago, the Cubs had positioned themselves as likely buyers during trade season. As recently as June 24, Chicago was tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central, nine games over .500. The past two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster for the North Siders, though.

Between June 25 and July 7, the Cubs lost eleven consecutive games. They snapped that streak with a win over the Phillies last night, but Chicago enters tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia with an uninspiring 43-44 record. The Brewers, meanwhile, have rattled off a 10-3 stretch over that time, opening up an 8.5 game lead on Chicago within a 14-day span. (The 45-41 Reds have also since passed the Cubs to jump into second place in the division). Chicago isn’t a whole lot closer in the Wild Card race, trailing the Padres by seven games (with Cincinnati and the Nationals also above them in the standings).

An eleven game losing streak can certainly tank a team’s season, and it seems it might’ve in the Cubs’ case. On June 24, FanGraphs gave Chicago a 35.7% chance of making the playoffs; entering play today, their odds were down to 6.4%.

With a playoff berth all of a sudden seeming highly unlikely, the calculus for the Cubs front office changes considerably, a fact that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged this evening. Speaking with reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago), Hoyer sounded far more willing to move players off the big league roster than he’d been a couple weeks ago.

“Eleven days ago, we were certainly fully on the buying side … and obviously (teams) are now calling to see which players are available,” Hoyer said. “So it’s a very different scenario than we’d expected. Life comes at you fast.” Asked whether the front office is willing to make players available, Hoyer noted their responsibility to consider anything “that can help build the next great Cubs team,” citing their aforementioned dwindling playoff odds.

The implications for the Cubs are obvious. Three of their highest-profile players — Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo — are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. If the team isn’t contending in 2021, it stands to reason any or all of them could find themselves on the move over the next few weeks.

Certainly, there’d be plenty of interest in every member of that group. Bryant has bounced back from a disappointing 2020 to hit a very strong .269/.349/.498 with sixteen home runs over 324 plate appearances this year. He’s making far more consistent hard contact and barreling balls up at a rate he hasn’t since his MVP peak. Bryant’s production has tailed off after he got out to a scorching start to the year, but his combination of excellent season-long numbers and overall track record would make him perhaps the top player on the trade market were the Cubs to make him available.

Rizzo’s .250/.343/.439 line is down rather significantly from his best seasons. It’s still above-average offensive production, though, and he continues to offer a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and hard contact (to say nothing of quality defensive marks at first base). Báez has struck out at an alarming 36.6% clip this year en route to a .234 batting average and a .282 on-base percentage. But he’s also popped 21 home runs and slugged .496, and he’s a comfortably above-average defender and baserunner.

Between their career accolades, key roles on the 2016 World Series team, and impending free agencies, that trio figures to draw the most fanfare in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re far from the only players on whose availability other teams might inquire, though. Zach Davies, Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick are useful players set to reach free agency this winter. (Marisnick has a mutual option for 2022, but mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties).

Willson Contreras, controllable via arbitration through 2022, is one of the game’s best catchers and was the subject of trade discussion last offseason. Closer Craig Kimbrel is having an incredible bounceback campaign, pitching to a 0.57 ERA with a 46.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage after struggling mightily between 2019-20. Kimbrel’s $16MM salary for 2021 now looks more than reasonable, as does the matching option on his contract for 2022.

Certainly, it’d be a surprise to see all of those players change teams in the next few weeks. Hoyer pushed back against the idea the Cubs were planning to kick off any sort of full-on rebuild, even as he acknowledged that the 2022 roster will look different from the current iteration. He also noted there’s still some possibility — slim as it now seems — the team plays its way back into contention over the coming weeks.

The Cubs have eighteen more games before the deadline. After facing the Phils tonight, their slate through July 29 consists of seven games against the Cardinals, six against the lowly Diamondbacks, and four against the Reds, one of the teams they’ll need to leapfrog for a postseason spot.

Winning thirteen or fourteen of those contests might get the Cubs sufficiently close to the postseason picture that the front office decides not to orchestrate a sell-off. The core of the current club has been pivotal to arguably the franchise’s most successful five-year run in over a century. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hoyer and his front office give the group as long a leash as possible this summer to try to play their way back into the mix.

Nevertheless, the most likely scenario is that the club’s dreadful past two weeks dug them a hole too deep to come back from. That’s an inescapable reality Hoyer acknowledged this afternoon, one that may result in a few of the franchise’s most important players of recent memory donning new uniforms in a few weeks’ time.

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