Jesus Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Won’t Pitch Again In 2024

By Steve Adams | August 8, 2024 at 12:55pm CDT

Aug. 8: Luzardo tells Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base that he is indeed done for the 2024 season and has already set his sights on rehabbing and preparing for a full season in 2025.

Luzardo acknowledged some frustration and disappointment with how the 2024 season has progressed for him. He’s still riding a bike and performing various exercises to keep in shape, but there’s simply not enough time left on the calendar for him to get back on the mound this year.

Aug. 6: Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo hasn’t pitched since June 16 due to a stress reaction in his lower back. The team never announced a formal timeline for his return, but Luzardo was moved to the 60-day injured list just a week after his initial IL placement, suggesting he’d be down for at least two months. It now seems his absence will extend even further, as the Marlins revealed yesterday that Luzardo’s no-throw period is expected to last another six weeks (X link via Isaac Azout of Fish On First).

Miami hasn’t said as much officially, but a six-week timeline simply to resume throwing all but eliminates the possibility of Luzardo making it back to the mound before the end of the season. Six weeks from yesterday would put Luzardo on about Sept. 16 before he even picks up a ball. The regular season ends just 13 days later, on Sept. 29.

If the back injury indeed proves season-ending, it’ll close the book on a frustrating year for the talented but inconsistent Luzardo. The 26-year-old southpaw pitched to a flat 5.00 ERA in a dozen starts spanning 66 2/3 innings. He missed time early with elbow tightness that led to concerns of another major arm injury — Luzardo had Tommy John surgery in high school — but he returned strong, posting a 3.98 ERA in 40 2/3 innings between IL stints. Half the damage against him (nine of his 18 earned runs in this stretch) came in one brutal June 4 outing against the Rays. His other six starts ranged from good to excellent.

The injury complicates the outlook of a pitcher who earlier this year looked like a surefire trade candidate. Even if Luzardo had been able to come back healthy for four to five starts late in the season, that might’ve been enough to showcase his health to potential offseason suitors. It’d hardly have been an ideal platform year, but other clubs could’ve felt reasonably confident they’d be getting a healthy version of the pitcher who from 2022-23 pitched 279 innings of 3.48 ERA ball while punching out nearly 29% of his opponents with a walk rate that sat a bit better than average.

Instead, teams eyeing Luzardo will have to factor in not only the early elbow issue but also the back injury that torpedoed his season. That previously referenced 2022-23 production is still alluring, as are the remaining two years of club control over Luzardo, but the health risk will be just as great a focus (if not greater).

Marlins president of baseball ops Peter Bendix and his staff will need to weigh offers this winter against what they think they could theoretically receive in a midseason deal. It’s possible, if not likely, that a healthy version of Luzardo in June/July could command more than the offseason version with significant health concerns — even though in the offseason Miami would be peddling two full seasons of club control as opposed to 1.5 seasons next summer. The Tigers went down a similar path with fellow lefty Matthew Boyd several years ago, fielding offers at multiple deadlines and through multiple offseasons while injuries continued to impact his stock. They ultimately wound up non-tendering Boyd in 2021 and losing the left-hander for nothing.

Holding Luzardo into the 2025 season could carry similar risk, but the front office also surely wants to avoid taking what’s perceived as a light package — only to see Luzardo bounce back with a healthy first half in 2025. It’s a fine line to walk and will be one of the most complex decisions for the Miami baseball operations staff this winter.

Marlins Unlikely To Move Jesus Luzardo, Bryan De La Cruz

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2024 at 11:49am CDT

The Marlins are open to offers on center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. and will have multiple bullpen pieces available in the next three weeks, but they’re not planning to move anyone and everyone on the roster. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the Fish aren’t going to move lefty Jesus Luzardo until he’s fully healthy again, which likely points to an offseason trade or even a deal at next year’s deadline. Mish adds that Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez are both likely to stay in South Florida as well. De La Cruz has already drawn interest, but he and Sanchez are both controllable through the 2027 season.

With regard to Luzardo, the notion of holding onto him is rather straightforward. The talented 26-year-old is on the 60-day injured list due to a stress reaction in his lower back. That 60-day term will extend beyond the July 30 trade deadline. Trading Luzardo right now would require selling low, and for a pitcher of his caliber with two remaining seasons of club control, that’s not a palatable course of action. It’s likely possible that a club could still obtain Luzardo by blowing the Marlins away with an offer commensurate with that of one for a healthy Luzardo — but it’s also highly unlikely a team would make that type of offer with Luzardo ailing.

Beyond that, the southpaw simply didn’t pitch up to his capabilities prior to landing on the shelf. Perhaps that back injury played a role, and Luzardo also had a brief IL stint for some elbow tightness early in the season. Whether he’s been fully healthy at any point this season isn’t clear, but the lefty has been tagged for a 5.00 ERA in 66 2/3 frames.

It’s an unflattering mark, though a 21.2% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate are both portents for some improvement. And it’s of course important to emphasize how good Luzardo was in the two prior seasons; the former third-round pick who once rated as the sport’s top left-handed pitching prospect started 50 games and notched a 3.48 ERA with a huge 28.7% strikeout rate and sharp 7.9% walk rate in 279 innings from 2022-23. He averaged 96.7 mph on his heater in those two years, though this year’s average fastball dipped to 95.5 mph — still a strong mark but a red flag for a pitcher who hasn’t been at his best.

If Luzardo is able to return from his back injury in the second half and close out the year in good health, then offseason interest should be robust. He won’t turn 27 until Sept. 30, still boasts a power arsenal, is only earning $5.5MM this season and is controlled through 2026 via arbitration. That type of pitcher should command a significant prospect haul — the type that’s extremely unlikely to be available when Luzardo is on the 60-day IL and questions about his ability to recover from this back injury persist. Luzardo has reportedly continued to draw interest while on the injured list, but it’s safe to presume the offers aren’t close to what they’d be if he were healthy and performing as he did in 2022-23.

As for the pair of outfielders, neither is a household name but both De La Cruz and Sanchez have shown some upside with the bat in the past. They’re both having below-average seasons at the plate in 2024 but have roughly average batting lines in their careers to date. De La Cruz is 27 years old. Sanchez is just 26.

De La Cruz is hitting .237/.286/.410 this season (94 wRC+). He’s popped 15 home runs and is on pace for a new career-high, but his 26% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate both offset some of that solid power. Sanchez is hitting a comparable .239/.291/.386 (92 wRC+) with nine home runs. He strikes out a bit less (23.6%) and walks at a similar 5.8% clip. Both players have notable platoon splits. The left-handed-hitting Sanchez is batting .270/.323/.445 against righties but just .091/.130/.159 against lefties (albeit in only 44 plate appearances). The righty-hitting De La Cruz has hit lefties at a .288/.318/.464 pace but floundered to a .210/.269/.380 line against righties.

There’s a case for the two to simply be platooned, and perhaps on a deeper roster that’d be how they’re utilized. But the Marlins are thin on outfielders as it is, and trading one or both Sanchez and De La Cruz — likely at a fairly low rate — would only further expose that deficiency. With three seasons of remaining club control apiece, there’s no urgency to move either. A big second half or strong start to the 2025 season could increase the trade value of either player.

Sanchez, in particular, has displayed some tantalizing batted-ball metrics that could signify the potential for growth. He’s averaged a whopping 93.5 mph off the bat this season with a huge 51% hard-hit rate. Those figures rank in the 96th and 94th percentile of MLB hitters, respectively. It’s also worth noting that current Marlins president Peter Bendix knows Sanchez well from his prospect days in the Rays system, where Bendix previously served as general manager. (Although that also means that Bendix was in the Tampa Bay front office when Sanchez was traded for Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards.)

NL East Notes: Schwarber, Harper, Luzardo, Arcia

By Mark Polishuk | July 7, 2024 at 6:46pm CDT

The Phillies were shut out in today’s 6-0 loss to the Braves, dropping Philadelphia to a respectable 5-4 record in its nine games without injured sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The good news is that at least Schwarber will be activated from the 10-day injured list for the Phils’ next game on Tuesday, and Harper seems on track to be activated at some point this week, even if Tuesday is still up in the air for the former NL MVP.

Both players ran the bases prior to today’s game, with MLB.com reporting that Schwarber has now been running at full intensity for two straight days, while Harper was running “either at or close to 100% intensity.” Schwarber was sidelined with a groin strain and Harper with a hamstring strain, so baserunning is essentially the final step in assessing whether either player is fully ready to return. While neither injury was thought to be overly serious, it is obviously a great sign for the Phillies that the initial assessment seems to be accurate, so the team won’t have any longer-term concerns about two key members of their everyday lineup.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes

By Darragh McDonald | June 26, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

The injuries to Patrick Sandoval of the Angels as well as Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett of the Marlins, and the potential impacts on the trade deadline (2:30)
The Phillies and Cristopher Sánchez sign an extension (11:45)
The Blue Jays lose Orelvis Martínez to a PED suspension, on top of other struggles (18:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

“What would it take for the Rockies to consider trading some young assets like Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers?” (23:55)
“The Astros are clearly out of it, so why isn’t Ryan Pressly a top target of teams with bad bullpens?” (30:35)
“Would the Marlins or Nationals trade with the Mets, Phillies or Braves, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Lane Thomas being good fits?” (39:25)
“Will T.J. McFarland of the Athletics be traded to the Cubs or another contender?” (47:45)

Check out our past episodes!

José Abreu’s Release, Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto Hit The IL And Even More Injuries – listen here
Injured Astros, The Chances Of Bad Teams Rebounding In 2025 And More – listen here
Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Marlins Place Braxton Garrett On 15-Day Injured List With Forearm Flexor Strain

By Nick Deeds | June 23, 2024 at 10:42am CDT

The Marlins announced several roster moves this morning, headlined by the club placing left-hander Braxton Garrett on the 15-Day injured list with a left forearm flexor strain. The club also optioned right-hander Shaun Anderson to Triple-A. Taking Garrett and Anderson’s spots on the club’s active roster will be right-hander Kyle Tyler and left-hander Kent Emanuel, both of whom had their contracts selected. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo and right-hander Edward Cabrera were both transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear space for the duo on the 40-man roster.

Garrett’s placement on the injured list isn’t necessarily a surprise, as the club had already scratched him from today’s start due to elbow soreness yesterday. With that being said, the diagnosis of a forearm flexor strain is a concerning one that suggests Garrett could be in for a lengthy absence, though details about his exact timeline are not yet available. For Marlins fans, it surely brings to mind September of last year, when the Marlins provided the same diagnosis for right-hander Sandy Alcantara before the ace ultimately required Tommy John surgery.

Fortunately, not all forearm strains require such drastic treatment. Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray suffered a similarly-termed strain back in April that ultimately proved to be purely muscular without damage to the UCL. Gray is currently on a rehab assignment and could factor into the Nationals’ pitching plans prior to the All Star break, roughly three months after the initial injury. A similar timeline could see Cabrera return sometime in September, prior to the end of the 2024 campaign.

Regardless of when Cabrera winds up being able to return to the club, however, the Marlins figure to be in a bit of a pickle as they look to piece together their rotation mix. Miami currently has seven starters on the injured list, leaving them with lefty Trevor Rogers, righty Roddery Munoz, and righty Yonny Chirinos as their only three established starting pitchers. That trio will be joined by Tyler, who is slated to start today’s game against the Mariners. A 20th-round pick by the Angels in the 2018 draft, the righty has made eight multi-inning relief appearances in the big leagues since he first made his MLB debut back in 2021, though he’s never started a game at the big league level.

He’s pitched fairly well in his limited opportunities in the majors with a 2.45 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 18 1/3 innings of work. That includes a single appearance with the Marlins earlier this year where he allowed one run in two frames where he allowed one hit and no walks with one strikeout. It’s unclear if Tyler will continue to pitch as part of the club’s rotation after today or if this is a spot start for the 27-year-old. Also joining Tyler on the active roster is the lefty Emanuel, who has been shuttling between the 40-man roster and the minor leagues all throughout the 2024 campaign for the Marlins. In 8 1/3 innings of work for the club this year across four appearances, Emanuel has struggled to a 7.56 ERA with an 8.19 FIP. Nonetheless, the southpaw will provide the club with a multi-inning option out of the bullpen who could piggyback with the right-handed Tyler if necessary this afternoon.

As for Luzardo and Cabrerea, the 60-day IL placements come as a mild surprise for both players. In Luzardo’s case, the lefty was placed on the IL just yesterday with a lumbar stress reaction, and manager Skip Schumaker suggested that injury typically has a 4-6 week timeline. Now that Luzardo is out for at least the next two months, it’s safe to say the Marlins believe he’ll be out for longer than that general timeline. He’ll first be eligible to return from the shelf in late August. Cabrera’s placement also somewhat surprising given the fact that he’s already built up to the 50-pitch range on a rehab assignment, though given the fact that the righty would be eligible to be activated from the shelf in just two weeks it could be a purely procedural transaction.

Marlins Place Jesus Luzardo On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | June 22, 2024 at 12:59pm CDT

12:59PM: The move has been officially announced, with Luzardo’s placement retroactive to June 19. The left-hander’s injury has been termed as a lumbar stress reaction, and Schumaker floated a recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks to De Nicola and other reporters. Though Schumaker was speaking in more general terms about recoveries from similar injuries rather than what can be expected for Luzardo himself, it nevertheless remains unclear if Luzardo will be able to pitch again before the trade deadline.

10:42AM: The Marlins have placed left-hander Jesus Luzardo on the 15-day injured list due to a back injury. The team already announced yesterday that Luzardo was being scratched from his planned start today, and Shaun Anderson is being recalled from Triple-A to take the hill against the Mariners.

Luzardo has been trying to pitch through his back problem “for a couple of weeks,” manager Skip Schumaker told MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola and other reporters, and the team even considered scratching him from his previous start against the Nationals last Sunday. As De Nicola notes, Luzardo’s velocity was down during that outing, though Luzardo still managed five innings of two-run ball against Washington.

“You don’t want to overdo another side of the body or another part of the body because you’re trying not to hurt whatever is being hurt or is hurting,” Schumaker said. “You definitely don’t want to push through something, especially the back, because it could lead to other things. So we’ll see what the results say and what the doctors say, but it’s definitely not something that you push through.”

This is Luzardo’s second IL trip this season, as he also missed just under three weeks dealing with tightness in his throwing elbow. Luzardo has a lengthy and well-documented injury history that also includes a Tommy John surgery, but the 2023 season showed a glimpse of what the southpaw could do when he was finally healthy. Over 32 starts and 178 2/3 innings for Miami last year, Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate to help lead the Marlins to a wild card berth.

The numbers have fallen off in 2024, with health undoubtedly some sort of factor in Luzardo’s 5.00 ERA over 66 2/3 frames. While his 4.20 SIERA is a little more respectable, Luzardo’s strikeout rate has sharply dropped to 21.2%, and his fastball velocity has gone from 96.7mph in 2023 to 95.1mph this year. As per Statcast, Luzardo’s four-seamer was one of the more effective pitches in baseball last season, but is now a below-average offering.

Anderson has already made one spot start for the Marlins since he was acquired in a trade with the Rangers last month, and now might get more opportunities as Miami continues to deal with an injury-plagued rotation. Since the last-place Marlins have long since thrown in the towel on contending this season, much of the focus on Miami has been around on what the team might do at the trade deadline, with Luzardo’s name often mentioned a prime candidate to be moved.

Even considering his shaky 2024 production, Luzardo has been viewed as possibly the Marlins’ best trade chip due to his age (26) and the two-plus years of arbitration control that runs through the 2026 campaign. However, this latest injury creates new doubt that Luzardo will even be back on the mound by the July 30 deadline, given how back problems can tend to linger. There’s no urgency for the Marlins to move Luzardo this summer when other trades could be explored this winter or really at any time during Luzardo’s remaining tenure with the organization, but naturally another injury-marred season will lower his trade value.

The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who Should Be Available Next Month

By Steve Adams | June 18, 2024 at 7:15pm CDT

Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.

Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.

Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.

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NL East Notes: Luzardo, Ortiz, Johnson, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk and Nick Deeds | May 11, 2024 at 3:30pm CDT

Jesus Luzardo was reinstated from the Marlins’ 15-day injured list today, with right-hander Eli Villalobos optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Luzardo struggled to a 6.58 ERA over his first five starts and 26 innings before a mild left flexor strain (initially diagnosed as elbow tightness) sent him to the IL, so the three-week layoff between starts can hopefully set as a refresh of a tough season to date for the 26-year-old. The returns of Luzardo and Braxton Garrett this weekend will help the injury-riddled Marlins rotation, though Edward Cabrera has now also gone down with a shoulder impingement.

Beyond the immediate help that Luzardo will bring to Miami’s pitching staff, today’s start figures to reignite the trade rumors that have swirled around the left-hander for months. If Luzardo recaptures his 2021-22 form, he would be a very hot commodity at the trade deadline, as he is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season. The Luis Arraez trade has already signaled that the Marlins are in sell mode, but while the team pulled the trigger early on that deal, Luzardo’s suitors will want to see a larger sample size of healthy and productive starts before moving what would have to be a very substantial trade package to pry him away from Miami.

Some more from around the NL East…

Phillies reliever Luis Ortiz is set to restart his throwing program today after he was shut down due to right shoulder inflammation. “We don’t think it’s anything, but we’re just taking it easy on him,” Phils manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com and other media. A sprained ankle in his first game of the season sent Ortiz to the 15-day IL back on March 31, and he made Triple-A rehab appearances on both April 23 and 25 before his new shoulder issue popped up. Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA in 19 relief innings for Philadelphia last season, amidst many shuttles up and down from the majors and Triple-A.
Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Pierce Johnson is “looking really good” as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation. Johnson was placed on the 15-day IL a week ago, but is already doing some low-intensity mound work, and appears to be on pace to miss only the minimum 15 days. Johnson has emerged as a key piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after being acquired by the Rockies at the last trade deadline, and the Braves extended the right-hander on a two-year deal worth $14.25MM in guaranteed money back in October to keep Johnson off the free agent market.
Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.

Jesús Luzardo Diagnosed With Mild Flexor Muscle Strain

By Darragh McDonald | April 29, 2024 at 6:21pm CDT

Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo has been diagnosed with a mild left flexor muscle strain, the club announced to members of the beat, including Isaac Azout of Fish on First. The team didn’t announce if this would impact his expected timeline.

Late last week, the lefty was scratched from his scheduled start and placed on the 15-day injured list due to left elbow tightness. That naturally led to some concern, as is always the case when a pitcher’s throwing arm is mentioned as part of an injury. On top of that, the Marlins had already seen their rotation hit hard by Tommy John surgery. Since Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez were already on the IL recovering from Tommy John surgeries, seeing Luzardo go down the same path would be another devastating blow.

Thankfully, it doesn’t seem as though anything like that is in the cards. Shortly after being placed on the IL, Luzardo said his IL placement was precautionary and that he felt he would only miss one or two starts, and there hasn’t yet been anything to suggest that plan isn’t possible. He played catch at the ballpark today, with some video relayed on X by Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. With his injury also reported as muscular in nature and not seemingly related to any ligament damage, that also perhaps suggests the worst fears have been avoided.

That’s undoubtedly good news for Luzardo and the Marlins, even if their season is going incredibly poorly. They are currently sporting a record of 6-23 and FanGraphs has their Playoff Odds down at 0.5%.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look earlier today at who the club might be looking to sell this summer, with Luzardo one of the most attractive pieces they could offer. He made 32 starts for the club last year with an earned run average of 3.58, striking out 28.1% of batters against a walk rate of just 7.4%. He stumbled out of the gate this year with a 6.58 ERA through five starts, but that’s a fairly small sample size and the injury could have plausibly played a role in that.

Luzardo is controllable for another two seasons after this one, so the Marlins certainly don’t have to trade him this summer. But non-rental pitchers are generally the most sought-after assets at the trade deadline. Given that ownership and the new front office under president of baseball operations Peter Bendix have seemingly been focused on overhauling the club’s farm system and player development apparatus, it stands to reason that they would have interested in selling Luzardo now. By waiting into future, his salary will rise via arbitration and his window of club control will shrink, thus reducing his value.

For Luzardo, he will obviously want to get healthy and back on the mound. Getting traded is always challenging but perhaps he would welcome the opportunity to join a competitive club for the final months of the season. On top of that, greater health and performance will help him increase his salary via arbitration in the coming seasons. He’s making $5.5MM this year and is slated for two more passes through the arb system.

Elsewhere on the roster, infielder Jake Burger is expected to start a rehab assignment in the coming days, per Azout on X. He was out of a bit of a slow start this year, hitting .228/.281/.421 through 16 games for a wRC+ of 92 before landing on the IL due to an oblique injury. But that performance may have been driven by a low batting average on balls in play, as his .233 mark so far this year has been well below average and his previous rate.

He had a breakout 34-homer campaign last year, split between the White Sox and Marlins after a midseason trade. He hit .250/.309/.518 on the year overall for a 120 wRC+. He’s not considered an especially strong defender but the lineup could use his bat. The team has a collective wRC+ of 73 so far this year, a mark that puts them ahead of just the White Sox. The club has been using Josh Bell, Emmanuel Rivera and Vidal Bruján to cover the infield corners lately, but none of that trio is hitting especially well, making it fairly easy for Burger to get back in the lineup once he’s healthy.

Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

By Anthony Franco | April 29, 2024 at 2:10pm CDT

A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

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