Marlins Place Jesus Luzardo On 15-Day Injured List
12:59PM: The move has been officially announced, with Luzardo’s placement retroactive to June 19. The left-hander’s injury has been termed as a lumbar stress reaction, and Schumaker floated a recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks to De Nicola and other reporters. Though Schumaker was speaking in more general terms about recoveries from similar injuries rather than what can be expected for Luzardo himself, it nevertheless remains unclear if Luzardo will be able to pitch again before the trade deadline.
10:42AM: The Marlins have placed left-hander Jesus Luzardo on the 15-day injured list due to a back injury. The team already announced yesterday that Luzardo was being scratched from his planned start today, and Shaun Anderson is being recalled from Triple-A to take the hill against the Mariners.
Luzardo has been trying to pitch through his back problem “for a couple of weeks,” manager Skip Schumaker told MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola and other reporters, and the team even considered scratching him from his previous start against the Nationals last Sunday. As De Nicola notes, Luzardo’s velocity was down during that outing, though Luzardo still managed five innings of two-run ball against Washington.
“You don’t want to overdo another side of the body or another part of the body because you’re trying not to hurt whatever is being hurt or is hurting,” Schumaker said. “You definitely don’t want to push through something, especially the back, because it could lead to other things. So we’ll see what the results say and what the doctors say, but it’s definitely not something that you push through.”
This is Luzardo’s second IL trip this season, as he also missed just under three weeks dealing with tightness in his throwing elbow. Luzardo has a lengthy and well-documented injury history that also includes a Tommy John surgery, but the 2023 season showed a glimpse of what the southpaw could do when he was finally healthy. Over 32 starts and 178 2/3 innings for Miami last year, Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate to help lead the Marlins to a wild card berth.
The numbers have fallen off in 2024, with health undoubtedly some sort of factor in Luzardo’s 5.00 ERA over 66 2/3 frames. While his 4.20 SIERA is a little more respectable, Luzardo’s strikeout rate has sharply dropped to 21.2%, and his fastball velocity has gone from 96.7mph in 2023 to 95.1mph this year. As per Statcast, Luzardo’s four-seamer was one of the more effective pitches in baseball last season, but is now a below-average offering.
Anderson has already made one spot start for the Marlins since he was acquired in a trade with the Rangers last month, and now might get more opportunities as Miami continues to deal with an injury-plagued rotation. Since the last-place Marlins have long since thrown in the towel on contending this season, much of the focus on Miami has been around on what the team might do at the trade deadline, with Luzardo’s name often mentioned a prime candidate to be moved.
Even considering his shaky 2024 production, Luzardo has been viewed as possibly the Marlins’ best trade chip due to his age (26) and the two-plus years of arbitration control that runs through the 2026 campaign. However, this latest injury creates new doubt that Luzardo will even be back on the mound by the July 30 deadline, given how back problems can tend to linger. There’s no urgency for the Marlins to move Luzardo this summer when other trades could be explored this winter or really at any time during Luzardo’s remaining tenure with the organization, but naturally another injury-marred season will lower his trade value.
The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month
Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.
Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.
Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
NL East Notes: Luzardo, Ortiz, Johnson, Nationals
Jesus Luzardo was reinstated from the Marlins‘ 15-day injured list today, with right-hander Eli Villalobos optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Luzardo struggled to a 6.58 ERA over his first five starts and 26 innings before a mild left flexor strain (initially diagnosed as elbow tightness) sent him to the IL, so the three-week layoff between starts can hopefully set as a refresh of a tough season to date for the 26-year-old. The returns of Luzardo and Braxton Garrett this weekend will help the injury-riddled Marlins rotation, though Edward Cabrera has now also gone down with a shoulder impingement.
Beyond the immediate help that Luzardo will bring to Miami’s pitching staff, today’s start figures to reignite the trade rumors that have swirled around the left-hander for months. If Luzardo recaptures his 2021-22 form, he would be a very hot commodity at the trade deadline, as he is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season. The Luis Arraez trade has already signaled that the Marlins are in sell mode, but while the team pulled the trigger early on that deal, Luzardo’s suitors will want to see a larger sample size of healthy and productive starts before moving what would have to be a very substantial trade package to pry him away from Miami.
Some more from around the NL East…
- Phillies reliever Luis Ortiz is set to restart his throwing program today after he was shut down due to right shoulder inflammation. “We don’t think it’s anything, but we’re just taking it easy on him,” Phils manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com and other media. A sprained ankle in his first game of the season sent Ortiz to the 15-day IL back on March 31, and he made Triple-A rehab appearances on both April 23 and 25 before his new shoulder issue popped up. Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA in 19 relief innings for Philadelphia last season, amidst many shuttles up and down from the majors and Triple-A.
- Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Pierce Johnson is “looking really good” as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation. Johnson was placed on the 15-day IL a week ago, but is already doing some low-intensity mound work, and appears to be on pace to miss only the minimum 15 days. Johnson has emerged as a key piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after being acquired by the Rockies at the last trade deadline, and the Braves extended the right-hander on a two-year deal worth $14.25MM in guaranteed money back in October to keep Johnson off the free agent market.
- Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.
Jesús Luzardo Diagnosed With Mild Flexor Muscle Strain
Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo has been diagnosed with a mild left flexor muscle strain, the club announced to members of the beat, including Isaac Azout of Fish on First. The team didn’t announce if this would impact his expected timeline.
Late last week, the lefty was scratched from his scheduled start and placed on the 15-day injured list due to left elbow tightness. That naturally led to some concern, as is always the case when a pitcher’s throwing arm is mentioned as part of an injury. On top of that, the Marlins had already seen their rotation hit hard by Tommy John surgery. Since Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez were already on the IL recovering from Tommy John surgeries, seeing Luzardo go down the same path would be another devastating blow.
Thankfully, it doesn’t seem as though anything like that is in the cards. Shortly after being placed on the IL, Luzardo said his IL placement was precautionary and that he felt he would only miss one or two starts, and there hasn’t yet been anything to suggest that plan isn’t possible. He played catch at the ballpark today, with some video relayed on X by Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. With his injury also reported as muscular in nature and not seemingly related to any ligament damage, that also perhaps suggests the worst fears have been avoided.
That’s undoubtedly good news for Luzardo and the Marlins, even if their season is going incredibly poorly. They are currently sporting a record of 6-23 and FanGraphs has their Playoff Odds down at 0.5%.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look earlier today at who the club might be looking to sell this summer, with Luzardo one of the most attractive pieces they could offer. He made 32 starts for the club last year with an earned run average of 3.58, striking out 28.1% of batters against a walk rate of just 7.4%. He stumbled out of the gate this year with a 6.58 ERA through five starts, but that’s a fairly small sample size and the injury could have plausibly played a role in that.
Luzardo is controllable for another two seasons after this one, so the Marlins certainly don’t have to trade him this summer. But non-rental pitchers are generally the most sought-after assets at the trade deadline. Given that ownership and the new front office under president of baseball operations Peter Bendix have seemingly been focused on overhauling the club’s farm system and player development apparatus, it stands to reason that they would have interested in selling Luzardo now. By waiting into future, his salary will rise via arbitration and his window of club control will shrink, thus reducing his value.
For Luzardo, he will obviously want to get healthy and back on the mound. Getting traded is always challenging but perhaps he would welcome the opportunity to join a competitive club for the final months of the season. On top of that, greater health and performance will help him increase his salary via arbitration in the coming seasons. He’s making $5.5MM this year and is slated for two more passes through the arb system.
Elsewhere on the roster, infielder Jake Burger is expected to start a rehab assignment in the coming days, per Azout on X. He was out of a bit of a slow start this year, hitting .228/.281/.421 through 16 games for a wRC+ of 92 before landing on the IL due to an oblique injury. But that performance may have been driven by a low batting average on balls in play, as his .233 mark so far this year has been well below average and his previous rate.
He had a breakout 34-homer campaign last year, split between the White Sox and Marlins after a midseason trade. He hit .250/.309/.518 on the year overall for a 120 wRC+. He’s not considered an especially strong defender but the lineup could use his bat. The team has a collective wRC+ of 73 so far this year, a mark that puts them ahead of just the White Sox. The club has been using Josh Bell, Emmanuel Rivera and Vidal Bruján to cover the infield corners lately, but none of that trio is hitting especially well, making it fairly easy for Burger to get back in the lineup once he’s healthy.
Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?
A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.
New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.
Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.
The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:
Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.
The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.
Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.
If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.
Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.
The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.
Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.
The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.
Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.
Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.
Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.
Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.
Lefty Relief Trio
Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.
Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.
———————
A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.
Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.
The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.
The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.
Jesus Luzardo Place On Injured List, Will Undergo Testing Due To Elbow Tightness
2:25pm: The Marlins have now formally placed Luzardo on the 15-day injured list with left elbow tightness and recalled Maldonado from Jacksonville. Luzardo tells Christina De Nicola of MLB.com that he feels this IL stint is precautionary and that he’ll only miss one or two starts.
9:35am: Right-hander Anthony Maldonado is being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville to start tonight’s game, the team has now announced. It’ll be his major league debut. Maldonado is a reliever who’s only pitched 11 2/3 innings over eight appearances this season, so while he could probably give the club multiple innings, it seems the Fish will go with a bullpen game today.
9:22am: The Marlins announced Friday that lefty Jesus Luzardo has been scratched from his scheduled start today and will instead undergo testing on his left elbow. The 26-year-old southpaw experienced discomfort in his most recent bullpen session.
It’s an ominous development for Miami’s Opening Day starter, who’s gotten out to a dreadful start to his season. Through his first five trips to the mound, Luzardo carries a 6.58 ERA in 26 innings. His velocity has held up from last year, but his strikeout rate is down four percentage points (from 28.1% to 24.1%) and his walk rate is up by roughly the same amount (from 7.4% to 11.6%). It’s a far cry from Luzardo’s 2022-23 form, wherein he pitched to a combined 3.48 ERA in 279 frames.
The news is all the more worrisome when considering Luzardo’s injury history. Although he made 32 starts and tossed a career-high 178 2/3 innings last year, that’s hardly been the norm for the talented southpaw. Luzardo had Tommy John surgery during his senior year of high school. The Nationals selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft anyhow and ultimately traded him to the Athletics as part of the package to acquire relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Luzardo continued to climb the minor league ranks and draw considerable prospect fanfare, but he also missed nearly two months of the 2019 season in the minors with a shoulder strain. Oakland flipped him to the Marlins in a 2021 trade for Starling Marte. Luzardo wound up being limited to 18 starts in 2022 because of a forearm strain.
Miami’s rotation has already been devastated by injury. Ace Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, underwent Tommy John surgery in October and won’t pitch this season. Top prospect Eury Perez, who debuted last season with 91 1/3 innings of 3.15 ERA ball at just 20 years of age, had Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Left-hander Braxton Garrett, who broke out with a 3.63 ERA in 247 2/3 innings from 2022-23, has yet to pitch this season due to a shoulder impingement.
Luzardo now joins that growing list of injured arms, leaving a Miami rotation that projected to be the team’s strength in tatters. Right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefties Ryan Weathers and Trevor Rogers are the team’s three healthy big league starters at present.
Right-hander Sixto Sanchez just made his first start since 2020 but lasted only 2 2/3 innings after opening the season in a bullpen role. He once ranked as an elite pitching prospect but has seen his career derailed by a series of shoulder injuries. He pitched one minor league inning from 2021-23 and is surely on an innings cap this year as a result. Top prospect Max Meyer, who was recently optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville despite a dominant start to the season, will also have his workload managed in 2024 — his first season back from his own Tommy John procedure. It stands to reason that he’ll be back in the Miami rotation at some point — likely sooner than later now — but it’s unclear how many innings can be expected of the former No. 3 overall draft pick.
The Marlins’ season already looked to be effectively over before the first month had drawn to a close. The team currently sits with a 6-20 record and a -47 run differential. The offense ranks 27th in the majors in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging percentage. They’ve gotten just five hits from their catchers all season. Any small chance of the Fish climbing out of this hole would’ve required things to break just right for them — including and arguably led by a return to form for their top starter. The obvious hope is that Luzardo will receive a clean bill of health and miss minimal time, but a lengthy absence would only serve as a further nail in the coffin on a catastrophic 2024 season in South Florida.
Padres Tried To Trade For Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo
A year after spending north of $400MM in free agency, the Padres spent a total of $50MM on free agents this offseason, adding just $9.35MM to the 2024 payroll. Indeed, in an effort to slash the budget, president of baseball operations A. J. Preller made most of his biggest acquisitions on the trade market. The Padres added Michael King, Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe from the Yankees in exchange for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, and several months later, they used Thorpe as one of the headlining pieces in a trade for White Sox starter Dylan Cease. They also brought in Enyel De Los Santos from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow.
However, those weren’t the only notable trades Preller pursued. Throughout the offseason, the Padres were reported to have shown interest in dealing for ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and outfielders Sal Frelick and Jarren Duran. Now, you can add Luis Arraez and Jesús Luzardo to that list of targets. According to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made “a strong offer” for Arraez this spring, and they might have been even more interested in Luzardo – at least until they dealt for Cease in mid-March.
While it never seemed all that likely the Marlins would part with Luzardo this offseason, he was the subject of significant trade interest. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles were all reported to have checked in on the southpaw. Like all three of those clubs, the Padres were seeking starting pitching this winter, so it hardly comes as a shock that they had their on eye Luzardo. The 26-year-old made 32 starts last year with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts. His 3.69 SIERA would have led the Padres rotation, while many of his other numbers would have ranked second behind the now-departed Blake Snell. With a $5.5MM salary for 2024 and three full seasons of team control remaining, he was an ideal trade candidate, especially for a team looking to reduce payroll while still fielding a competitive roster.
That the Padres were so interested in Arraez is much more surprising. Like Luzardo, he is a young but proven player with a salary well below his value on the open market. However, he was not the subject of any substantive trade rumors over the winter. Moreover, he plays the infield, arguably the only area San Diego didn’t need to upgrade. While the Padres were linked to several outfielders on the free agent and trade markets, the Padres seemed set with Jake Cronenworth at first base, Xander Bogaerts at second, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and, eventually, Manny Machado at third. That doesn’t leave much room for another All-Star infielder.
As Rosenthal and Lin suggest, the Padres might have hoped to trade Cronenworth and play Arraez at first. However, Cronenworth’s seven-year, $80MM contract that began this season simultaneously makes him inexpensive (in terms of annual salary) yet still rather difficult to trade. Alternatively, the Friars might have been more worried about Machado’s ability to play third base this year than they let on. They could have been planning to move Bogaerts back to shortstop, slide Kim over to third, and plug Arraez in at second. When Machado was healthy enough to return, Arraez could have taken over primary DH duties. Finally, it’s possible Preller simply saw an opportunity to add a star talent on a low salary and chose to make an offer and figure the rest out later. Too much talent is hardly a bad problem to have, and the Padres seem to like stockpiling infielders.
Rosenthal and Lin do not suggest Miami was actively shopping Arraez. However, their report implies that Preller’s offer was enough to tempt Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Needless to say, Bendix didn’t pull the trigger, but according to Rosenthal and Lin, that was largely because he “feared [the Marlins] could not adequately replace Arraez.” The report does not address how close the Padres might have come to landing Luzardo before ultimately acquiring Cease; it’s not clear if Bendix ever seriously considered sending Luzardo to San Diego.
The Fish aren’t off to a good start if they’re hoping to contend in 2024. Still, they’re under no immediate pressure to trade either Arraez or Luzardo, arguably their two best (healthy) players. Arraez has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025, while Luzardo will be eligible for arbitration through the 2026 campaign.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports
Yankees Still Looking To Add Starting Pitching
The Yankees were frequently connected to Blake Snell while he was a free agent, but the lefty reportedly agreed to a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last night. Though Snell is off the board, the Yanks are still in the market for starting pitching, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s understandable that the Yanks are still on the hunt for arms. They were often connected to Snell even before the recent news that ace Gerrit Cole is going to miss significant time due nerve inflammation and edema in his elbow.
Though the desire to add Snell seemed to be real, it appeared that the competitive balance tax was too much of an obstacle. The Yankees are set to be third-time payors of the tax and are already over the fourth and final threshold, meaning they face a 110% tax on any further spending. Snell didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for, reportedly turning down a six-year, $150MM offer from the Yanks, and pivoted to a short-term pact with a high average annual value. Had the Yankees matched the $31MM AAV Snell got from the Giants, they would have had to pay $34.1MM in taxes as well.
That concern seemingly had them leaning towards a trade for Dylan Cease, since he’s still in his arbitration years and making just $8MM this year. But the Yanks missed out there as well, with Cease eventually getting shipped from the White Sox to the Padres. Heyman adds that they haven’t made much traction with other trade targets, such as Jesus Lúzardo of the Marlins.
But the need for reinforcements is apparent when looking at the rotation without Cole. Nestor Cortes went on the injured list due to a rotator cuff strain on two occasions last year and finished the season with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings. Carlos Rodón dealt with a forearm strain and hamstring strain and posted a 6.85 ERA in his 64 1/3 innings. Marcus Stroman had a great first half but issues with his hip and rib cartilage pushed his ERA up to 3.95 by the end of the year.
Those three have each had much better results in the past but they are sort of wild cards now after their frustrating campaigns. Backing them up will be Clarke Schmidt, who had a 4.64 ERA last year. There would still be one spot open, with pitchers like Luke Weaver, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Will Warren potential options. Weaver has finished three of the last four seasons with an ERA of 6.40 or higher. Gil underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 and missed most of the last two years. Neither Beeter nor Warren have made their major league debuts yet.
The Yankees will understandably be open to upgrading that group, especially for a season in which they are clearly committed to winning. They sent five players to the Padres to get one season of Juan Soto, and two of Trent Grisham, and will pay Soto $31MM plus taxes in the process.
Opening Day is next Thursday but the club still has options, with various pitchers still unsigned thanks to this slow offseason. The club has been connected to pitchers like Michael Lorenzen and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom remain unsigned. Free agency also features guys like Mike Clevinger, Johnny Cueto and Noah Syndergaard. Earlier this month, reporting suggested Montgomery was still holding out for a seven-year deal but the other guys won’t require significant expenditures to sign.
With the start of the season so near, there would naturally be concern about a pitcher getting stretched out after missing so much of Spring Training. It seems Lorenzen has been getting himself ready on his own, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who relays footage from Lorenzen’s agent of the righty throwing. Rosenthal reports that the righty recently threw 70 innings, getting up and down four times. He would likely still require some official game action but it doesn’t seem as though he would require a traditional six-week ramping up period.
Lorenzen has reportedly been seeking a two-year deal while also receiving interest from clubs like the White Sox and Mets.
Orioles Have Shown Interest In Jesús Luzardo
The starting pitchers of the Marlins have been popular in trade rumors and the Orioles showed the most interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s unclear exactly when the trade talks took place.
The Orioles have been looking for starting pitching all offseason so it’s logical that they would check in with Miami. The O’s were connected to trade candidates like Dylan Cease and free agents like Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton before landing a big fish when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.
From the perspective of the Marlins, they don’t quite have the overflowing rotation surplus that they have had in the past, but it makes sense to listen to offers since they have holes elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Catcher and shortstop are those spots that could clearly be upgraded but free agency doesn’t have many enticing options, so perhaps moving a starter would be their best bet even if the depth isn’t quite what it was.
They traded Pablo López to the Twins last winter as part of the return for Luis Arráez and then Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, they traded prospect Jake Eder to the White Sox for Jake Burger, thinning out the depth a bit.
After all that, the club’s rotation mix currently consists of Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, with Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers and Meyer are some of the other options on the roster.
That group has its question marks. Cabrera gets tons of strikeouts and ground balls but has also walked 14% of batters faced in his career. He’s now out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors to continue refining his command. Rogers was great in 2021 but his results backed up in 2022 and then he was limited by injuries in 2023. He made four April starts last year before going on the injured list due to a left biceps strain, later being diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, never making it back to the club. Sánchez has thrown just one minor league inning over the past three years due to ongoing shoulder problems. Weathers had poor results last year while Meyer missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The Marlins are reportedly setting a high asking price in trade talks concerning Luzardo, which is a sensible position to take. With that group of starters, they don’t strictly need to move someone since it’s arguably flimsy as it is. Luzardo is also under club control through the 2026 season, meaning the club needn’t be in any kind of hurry. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more arbitration raises in the seasons to come. That’s a bargain price for a guy who made 50 starts over the past two years with a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.
Cabrera and Rogers have also received some trade interest, but the asking price on them would naturally be lower on account of the Cabrera’s control problems and Rogers’ injury issues. Jackson and Mish add that the Marlins and Royals had talks about some kind of blockbuster involving Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. but those talks quickly fizzled out. Those talks were towards the end of last season, while Kim Ng was still running the baseball operations department. Jackson and Mish report that the new regime, led by Peter Bendix, considers Pérez untouchable.
But with the holes elsewhere on the roster, there would be an argument for taking the right deal. The Marlins reportedly asked about catching prospect Samuel Basallo in trade talks with the Orioles, but the O’s had no interest in making him available. Part of Baltimore’s never-ending parade of elite prospects, Basallo is currently ranked 10th in the league by Baseball America and 7th by FanGraphs.
The Marlins currently have a catching tandem of Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes. Both are fairly well regarded on defense but don’t provide a lot with the bat. Bethancourt hit .231/.261/.361 last year and Fortes just .204/.263/.299. The 19-year-old Basallo would be more of a long-term solution there, as he only has four games above High-A and is unlikely to crack the majors for much of 2024, if at all.
The Orioles could also theoretically stand to part with Basallo since they already have a cornerstone catcher in Adley Rutschman, but that doesn’t seem like it will motivate them towards a deal. They also have a surplus of young talent on the infield and outfield but have generally held onto the majority of it, apart from including Joey Ortiz in the Burnes deal. They still seem to have too many players for the playing time they have to distribute but appear to be quite patient in letting moves come together.
As mentioned, it’s unclear exactly when the talks regarding Luzardo took place. Presumably, they were before the Burnes deal, but there would have been an argument for the O’s to still be pursuing rotation upgrades even after that. After that trade, the rotation projected to be Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and John Means. That’s a talented group but Rodriguez was inconsistent as a rookie last year while Means just returned from a lengthy Tommy John layoff. Adding Luzardo into that group would have been a viable path for the O’s to take, so it’s possible the talks happened post-Burnes, even if they didn’t make much headway.
It’s possible that their desire to get a deal done may have increased this week, however. It was reported today that Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, raising the spectre of Tommy John surgery. It’s still not determined if he will need to go under the knife but he will at least start the season on the injured list. Additionally, Means is about a month behind schedule due to an elbow issue he dealt with last year.
With two-fifths of their projected starting rotation now questionable, perhaps the O’s will circle back to the Marlins and reopen these talks at some point. Though the free agent market also still features notable names like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Meanwhile, Cease is still on the White Sox while other trade candidates like Shane Bieber or Paul Blackburn could still be available. Even after the Burnes trade, the O’s are still considered to have an excellent farm system and could pull off just about any trade they decide to make if they really wanted.
Dodgers “Looked Into” Trades For Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo
While the highlight of the Dodgers’ offseason is of course the signing of superstar Shohei Ohtani, the club has worked hard to overhaul its starting rotation after the unit struggled to a collective 4.57 ERA last year, a figure that ranked 20th among major league clubs. They’ve been very successful in that regard, signing NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto while dealing for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. The club appears to have recently rounded out its rotation mix (give or take a possible reunion with long-time franchise face Clayton Kershaw) with the addition of veteran southpaw James Paxton, though MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently reported that the club recently looked into making a bigger splash even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.
Per Toribio, the club “looked into” trades for Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Jesus Luzardo in the aftermath of the club adding Yamamoto and Glasnow back in December. Since then, Burnes has been dealt to the Orioles while Cease appears increasingly unlikely to move before Opening Day after being frequently connected to the Dodgers earlier in the offseason. Bieber and Luzardo, on the other hand, had not yet been publicly connected to the Dodgers this winter. It’s unclear if the Dodgers retain interest in either hurler with Paxton now on board, but either would certainly be an intriguing addition for the league’s most aggressive club this winter.
Bieber, 28, is coming off a down season relative to his own lofty standards as he posted a 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP while being limited to just 21 starts by a bout of elbow inflammation. Still, the two-time All Star and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has been among the best pitchers in the league over the past half decade, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 114 appearances dating back to the 2019 season and would figure to improve virtually any rotation if traded for, including that of the Dodgers. Bieber has also indicated a willingness to negotiate an extension with his new club in the event that he’s traded, meaning its feasible that a trade could net the Dodgers a longer-term asset than Bieber’s one year of team control would otherwise imply.
While the Guardians figure to attempt to remain competitive in a weak AL Central division this year, they’ve shown a propensity for dealing star players elsewhere before they reach free agency as demonstrated by deals shipping out players such as Corey Kluber and Francisco Lindor. What’s more, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reported back in December that the Guardians are unlikely to increase payroll above last year’s levels in 2024, leaving them with little room to upgrade their flawed positional mix without shedding salary or trading an asset. A Bieber deal would allow the club to accomplish both of those goals, potential adding a hitter as part of the return for the right-hander while also freeing up $13.125MM in the club’s budget for other additions.
Luzardo, 26, struggled early in his career as a member of the A’s but has flourished in the years since he was acquired by Miami. In the past two years, Luzardo has made 50 starts to the tune of a 3.52 ERA with a 3.40 FIP. The 26-year-old southpaw has struck out an impressive 28.7% of batters faced during that time while walking 7.9%, establishing himself as the #2 starter in Miami behind ace Sandy Alcantara. With Alcantara expected to miss the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, however, Luzardo is currently penciled in as the staff ace ahead of the likes of Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera. Important as Luzardo may be to Miami’s rotation entering 2024, the club is nonetheless reportedly open to dealing him or another piece from the rotation, with only Perez reportedly untouchable in trade talks. Luzardo is under team control through the 2026 season.
While the addition of either Luzardo or Bieber would certainly bolster an already impressive Dodgers rotation, their recent addition of Paxton along with the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw’s future with the club leaves how an additional starter would fit into L.A.’s rotation puzzle questionable. On paper, the club’s rotation appears to be full as things stand with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Paxton joining Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Talented as that group of five is, however, there’s plenty of questions surrounding that group’s durability. Glasnow and Paxton both have lengthy injury histories, Yamamoto has spent his career to this point pitching just once a week overseas, and Miller’s 138 2/3 innings of work last year between the majors and minors was a career high. Meanwhile, Buehler is coming off more than a season lost due to Tommy John surgery and even Kershaw, if brought back into the fold, isn’t expected to pitch until August as he rehabs from shoulder surgery.
While youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone could certainly contribute meaningful innings to help the Dodgers overcome the lack of certainty in their rotation mix, the addition of a surefire starting arm such as Bieber or Luzardo could help solidify the club’s overall rotation mix headed into the season. While all evidence points to the club planning on a five-man rotation this season, it’s possible the Dodgers could be more amenable to the idea of using a sixth starter throughout the season given the fact that they’ll be forced to implement a six-man staff when Ohtani returns to the mound next year.
The Dodgers are far from the only club that may be interested in the services of Luzardo or Bieber, of course; the Yankees expressed interest in both arms last month. Earlier in the offseason, the Marlins and Royals reportedly discussed a deal involving Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, while Bieber reportedly drew interest from teams such as the Cubs and Reds.