Padres Notes: Catcher, Musgrove, Snell
Padres catcher Austin Nola has struggled through a slow start to the season, perhaps still feeling the effects of a broken nose suffered when he was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer fastball late in spring training. The 33-year-old is out to just a 3-for-29 start, and manager Bob Melvin conceded after last night’s game that the Padres “might need to do things a little differently” with regard to their catching setup (link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). As Melvin points out, Nola enjoyed a strong spring before that unfortunate plunking; in 30 plate appearances he slashed .333/.487/.467.
Presumably, “differently” entails allotting more time to longtime top catching prospect Luis Campusano. The 24-year-old hasn’t exactly set the world on fire himself in this season’s small sample, going 4-for-16 with a double and five punchouts in 17 plate appearances. In parts of four seasons in the Majors, Campusano has received just 109 plate appearances and posted a .198/.239/.277 batting line. However, he’s also posted excellent batted-ball metrics (90.9 mph average exit velocity, 48.6% hard-hit rate) and owns a .296/.364/.511 batting line in 684 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never been given a legitimate run as the team’s primary catcher.
To this point, Acee notes, Campusano has been the catcher for righty Michael Wacha and lefty Ryan Weathers, with Nola lining up behind the dish to catch Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Blake Snell. Whether the Friars will continue to deploy their catchers based on specific pitcher pairings remains to be determined, but Melvin’s comments suggest that Campusano is likely in for a larger workload to an extent.
As far as the rotation is concerned, the Padres have had to patch things together a bit with Joe Musgrove opening the season on the injured list due to a broken toe he suffered in the weight room during spring training. He’s already made one rehab start, but Musgrove landed awkwardly on his shoulder while making a play in the field during that start and had his second rehab start pushed back as a result. The right-hander had a cortisone injection in that shoulder earlier this week, and he’ll be evaluated again today, Melvin said earlier in the week (link via FriarWire’s Bill Center).
If things go well today, Musgrove could make a second rehab start as soon as tomorrow. Given that he already tossed 4 1/3 innings in his first rehab outing, Musgrove could plausibly be ready for activation following a second rehab appearance, although the team has not yet indicated whether the plan is for him to make two or three rehab starts. Even if Musgrove makes another pair of rehab appearances, he could still be in line for his season debut in the final week of April, assuming all goes well from a health vantage point.
Weathers and Lugo have exceeded expectations in joining the starting staff, but the Padres are surely eager to get Musgrove back nonetheless. Musgrove would’ve likely been in line to serve as San Diego’s Opening Day starter, but that title wound up going to lefty Blake Snell, who’s struggled through his first three starts of a contract season.
Dennis Lin of The Athletic spoke with Snell about those struggles, noting that the lefty began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual in hopes of shaking off some of his increasingly characteristic early-season struggles. Snell tells Lin that he’s made a concerted effort to throw more fastballs in an effort to “get out of my own way” and to remind him of the quality of his secondary pitches. “My curveball and slider are really good because of how good the fastball is,” says Snell.
Thus far, it hasn’t worked out in Snell’s favor. He’s lasted just 13 total innings across three starts, pitching to a 6.92 ERA while walking 10 of is 66 opponents (15.2%). Command and pitch efficiency have been issues for Snell throughout his career, which helps to explain his penchant for relatively short starts. (Snell has averaged just 5.09 innings per start in his career.)
Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner with the Rays, has stumbled out of the gate in each of the past two seasons before ultimately righting the ship and dominating late in the year. In 2021, he pitched to a 5.44 ERA with a 14.3% walk rate in 19 starts through late July before rebounding with 44 1/3 innings of 1.83 ERA ball and an 8.4% walk rate over his final seven starts (44 1/3 innings). His 2022 season played out similarly: a 5.60 ERA and 12.2% walk rate through late June, followed by a 2.53 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in his final 17 starts.
Snell’s raw abilities are unquestionable. He’s a former Cy Young winner who can miss bats at an elite rate and, when he’s at his best, look like one of the game’s best pitchers. His ability to reach those peak levels with any degree of consistency, however, are far more questionable. Nonetheless, that repeatedly demonstrated ability to overwhelm opposing lineups — however inconsistent it may be — is what landed him in the No. 10 spot on yesterday’s edition of MLBTR’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings.
If he’s able to uncage his dominant form earlier than usual, Snell has the potential to be one of the most in-demand arms on next offseason’s market. His all-too-familiar peaks and valleys may give teams trepidation even he can round into form sooner than later, but left-handers who throw 96 mph and punch out nearly 30% of their opponents don’t grow on trees. And, other clubs will surely have their own ideas about how to get Snell to tap into that No. 1 starter upside with more regularity.
Padres Open To Trade Offers On Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim
The Padres have had another significant offseason, adding Xander Bogaerts on an 11-year megadeal and bringing in Matt Carpenter via two-year guarantee. Those players lengthen a lineup that already had plenty of talent, with Bogaerts in particular building on an existing area of strength.
San Diego certainly didn’t need another infielder. Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth would’ve made for an effective pairing up the middle, while Manny Machado has third base secured. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be back from his performance-enhancing drug suspension by the end of April and was already expected to see plenty of outfield work in deference to Kim and Cronenworth. As things stand, the Bogaerts signing pushes Kim to second base and Cronenworth over to first while keeping Tatis in the outfield on most days.
That overflow of up-the-middle talent is an enviable “problem” to have, as it affords them the ability to turn to the trade market. To that end, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are open to discussions on both Kim and center fielder Trent Grisham. Lin adds the organization isn’t interested in parting with Cronenworth and suggests a deal involving Grisham might be more likely than one than sends Kim elsewhere.
Grisham has spent the last three years in San Diego. Acquired from the Brewers in the deal that sent Luis Urías and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee over the 2019-20 offseason, he immediately stepped in as the Friars primary center fielder. Grisham had a great first season, collecting 10 home runs and stolen bases apiece with a .251/.352/.456 line while playing in 59 of the 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He looked like a budding star, but his offense has regressed in the past couple seasons.
The lefty hitter put up a .242/.327/.413 slash in 2021, with that production checking in right around league average. He took another step back this past season, posting a .184/.284/.341 mark through 524 trips to the plate. Grisham connected on 17 longballs and walked at a robust 10.9% clip but had the worst batting average of any hitter with at least 500 plate appearances. While there’s some amount of misfortune in the meager .231 average on balls in play he mustered, there were also plenty of worrisome underlying indicators.
Grisham struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances, the worst clip of his career. Only Randal Grichuk had a lower line drive rate than Grisham’s 13.5% mark (minimum 500 PA’s) and his hard contact percentage was middle-of-the-pack. A left-handed pull hitter, Grisham could stand to benefit somewhat from the forthcoming shift limitations, but it’s not likely to be all that significant a boost unless he trims his strikeouts and/or improves his contact profile.
To his credit, the 26-year-old remained a valuable part of the San Diego lineup even during a disappointing offensive year. Grisham played more than 1100 innings in center field and earned a second career Gold Glove for his work. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as eight runs better than average, while Statcast pegged him as 12 runs above par. Grisham’s glove has been a plus throughout his career, as he combines excellent speed with quality reads and solid arm strength.
Despite the career-worst offensive season, Grisham would have a decent amount of value on the trade market. His defense raises his floor and he’s shown prior glimpses of quality work at the plate. With three seasons of remaining arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $2.6MM salary next year, he’d have plenty of appeal in a market starved for quality center field options. There are no remaining free agent center fielders who’d likely play every day on a contender. The trade market is similarly without many obvious candidates. The Royals would listen to offers on Michael A. Taylor and the Twins are known to be open to dealing Max Kepler. Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have maintained they won’t budge off a lofty asking price.
Teams like the Red Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Reds and Marlins are among the clubs that have sought center field help. That’s also true of the Dodgers, though it’s hard to imagine San Diego trading anyone to their chief competitors in the NL West. Lin relays that San Diego has interest in Marlins starter Pablo López and speculates the Friars could look to market Grisham to Miami in a deal for rotation help, though there’s no indication the sides have actually had those discussions to this point.
Kim should have even stronger trade appeal, as he’s coming off a better offensive season. After struggling in his first MLB campaign, the former KBO star hit .251/.325/.383 across 582 plate appearances in year two. Kim picked up 11 homers and 29 doubles while striking out in only 17.2% of his plate appearances. He also stole 12 bases in 14 attempts.
Like Grisham, Kim provides sizable value on the defensive side. Pressed into primary shortstop duty by Tatis’ injuries and suspension, the 27-year-old looked like a Gold Glove-caliber middle infielder. DRS credited him as 10 runs above average in a little less than 1100 shortstop innings, while Statcast estimated him as five runs better than average. Kim had also rated as a plus defender at second and third base during the 2021 campaign.
Upon making the jump from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Kim landed a four-year, $25MM guarantee. He’s due a modest $17MM over the next two seasons (including a buyout on a 2025 mutual option) and is slated to head back to free agency following the ’24 campaign. That’s excellent value for a player coming a season as strong as Kim’s and in his prime years.
As with center field, the middle infield market has dried up considerably at this stage of the offseason. Assuming Carlos Correa finalizes a deal with the Mets, the top remaining free agents are Elvis Andrus and players like Hanser Alberto and José Iglesias. Obvious trade possibilities are again sparse. Players like Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo or Nick Madrigal could be dealt but aren’t necessarily likely to move. Boston, Atlanta, Minnesota, the Angels and the White Sox are among the teams that could seek out upgrades at one of the middle infield spots.
There’s no urgency for San Diego to deal either Grisham or Kim, of course. Both players are affordable and currently penciled into everyday roles. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged as much last week, telling Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic the team’s “intention” was to retain their current position player group thanks to “the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.” Lin’s report suggests they’re not completely committed to that course of action, though, at least if offered a chance to upgrade elsewhere on the roster.
The back of the rotation is something of a question mark, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo slated for the fourth and fifth spots behind Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. Only Musgrove is guaranteed to be around beyond next season; Snell and Darvish will be free agents at the end of the year, and Martinez and Lugo could opt out of their multi-year deals (although only if the team first declines a two-year option in Martinez’s case). The club could also consider ways to upgrade at catcher or add another bat to the corner outfield/first base mix.
The organization’s farm system has thinned considerably in recent seasons as they’ve packaged a lot of their depth for impact trade acquisitions, perhaps leading them to be more amenable to deal from the MLB roster in the right circumstance. Young catcher Luis Campusano would seem to be a candidate for such a move on paper considering his strong prospect pedigree, but Lin relays that trade interest in the 24-year-old isn’t especially strong at this point.
Padres, D-Backs, Guardians Among Teams Interested In Christian Vazquez
8:08pm: The Diamondbacks and Giants are also in the mix for Vázquez, Abraham reports (on Twitter). The Boston Globe writer also suggests he’s likely to find at least three years and floats the possibility of a four-year pact materializing.
4:07pm: Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.
None of the new suitors is all that surprising, as they could each stand to upgrade behind the dish. That’s arguably not as pressing a concern for San Diego as it may be for some other teams, as the Friars do have Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as a viable catching tandem. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.
Nola, 33 this month, has spent two-plus seasons in Southern California. He looked like a late-blooming breakout player with the Mariners in 2019-20, leading San Diego to acquire him at the 2020 deadline in a now-regrettable swap that landed Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Andrés Muñoz in Seattle. Nola’s offensive production has dropped off since the trade, and he owns a .254/.327/.348 line in 665 plate appearances as a Padre. That’s fine production for a catcher but it’s not overwhelming, with Vázquez coming off a superior .274/.315/.399 showing. Campusano is a longtime top prospect with a strong Triple-A track record, but he has all of 28 MLB games under his belt.
Pursuing Vázquez could also be a way for the Friars to more indirectly upgrade their roster, as signing a catcher would free them up to market Nola or Campusano in trade talks. The 24-year-old Campusano still has six seasons of remaining club control and would have a fair bit of value on the trade market, able to appeal to win-now clubs and teams with further off contention windows alike. Nola has three seasons of arbitration-eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary next season. He’s not as appealing as Campusano but could still attract some attention if the Friars made him available.
The Guardians, meanwhile, are certain to add a catcher this offseason. Austin Hedges hit free agency, leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians have been one of the more frequently mentioned suitors for A’s backstop Sean Murphy, who seems highly likely to be dealt. Vázquez isn’t that caliber of player, but he wouldn’t force the team to surrender any young talent to add him. A highly-regarded game-caller with consistently strong defensive metrics and a plus arm, Vázquez would be a sensible target for a Cleveland team that has prioritized catcher defense.
The Twins have made no secret of their desire to add another catcher to pair with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers. Both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of the appeal of bringing in another catcher capable of starting 100-plus games to take some of the responsibility off Jeffers. They’re not so much trying to supplant their internal catcher as find a strong complement to him. Vázquez would surely qualify, although it’s unclear if the Twins are prepared to offer him as many at-bats as he’d like.
Late in the season, Vázquez suggested to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he’d prioritize finding a primary job in free agency. A longtime #1 catcher in Boston, he took a bit of a backseat to Martín Maldonado during his final couple months in Houston, starting just 23 games in the season’s final two months.
That desire for playing time would seem to reduce the chances Vázquez ends up back in Houston. Maldonado is under contract for another season and beloved for his ability to work with the pitching staff. The Astros have been wary of usurping him as their top catcher, and Rosenthal suggests they’d pursue a Vázquez reunion as part of a broader playing time split with Maldonado. Houston has been strongly linked to Contreras a few times this winter, with the thought that the longtime Cub’s bat plays well enough he could see extended time at designated hitter or in left field in addition to his time behind the plate. That’s less appealing for a glove-first player like Vázquez, who’s a good hitter for a catcher but a below-average offensive threat compared to players at less demanding positions.
There should be more than enough interest for Vázquez to find a #1 job again if that’s indeed his priority. He also looks in position to land a solid payday, as Rosenthal writes he’s likely to find a three-year commitment. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted the MDR Sports Management client for a three-year, $27MM contract.
Padres Place Luke Voit On 10-Day IL, Recall Luis Campusano
The Padres have announced that first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a biceps tendon injury. Catcher Luis Campusano has been recalled to take his place on the roster.
After excellent campaigns with the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, injuries have been the focus of the Luke Voit story since then. Last year, he made multiple trips to the IL due to various injuries, only getting into 68 games on the year and hitting a disappointing .239/.328/.437. That still amounted to a wRC+ of 111, or 11% better than league average, but was a drop from his 126 in 2019 and 153 in the shortened 2020 season.
The Yankees seemed to give up on considering Voit their everyday first baseman, acquiring Anthony Rizzo in a deadline deal last year and then re-signing him in the offseason. That was followed by flipping Voit to San Diego. In his short time as a Padre, Voit has been dealing with this bicep issue and struggling to a line of .143/.315/.167 in 13 games. He’ll take some time off and try to heal, hopefully coming back more productive.
As for Campusano, he’s considered one of the best catching prospects in baseball. He made his MLB debut last year, struggling in a tiny sample of 11 games. The club already has Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro available on the roster for catching duties. However, with Voit on the shelf, the DH slot could be used to spread some of the at-bats around. Campusano is off to a great start at the plate this year, hitting .359/.375/.487 in 9 Triple-A games.
Padres Open To Trading From Rotation, Catching Depth
With a little over a week until Opening Day, the Padres still have a highly uncertain outfield mix. Michael Conforto and Brett Gardner remain available in free agency, but the Friars are an estimated $6MM shy of the $230MM base luxury tax threshold and are reportedly reluctant to exceed that figure.
If they’re not content with their internal outfield options, a trade may be the better way for the front office to go. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are willing to entertain offers on some of their catchers or starting pitchers. Dealing from their depth in either area wouldn’t necessarily mean the Padres bring back a big league caliber outfielder in return, but it seems the front office is at least open to exploring those possibilities.
Neither development comes as a surprise. During the lockout, MLBTR noted the potential for San Diego to entertain trades from both the catching group and rotation depth. The Padres currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster, all of whom have reasonable claims to a spot on the MLB club.
Austin Nola is the presumptive starter. Luis Campusano is a top prospect who doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 in Triple-A. Víctor Caratini is coming off a rough season, but he’s had success in the past and works well with Yu Darvish. Jorge Alfaro would appear to be fourth on the depth chart, but San Diego acquired him from the Marlins and he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning the Padres need to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The Friars presumably won’t carry all four on the Opening Day roster, even with rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in the early going, so it’s natural they’d be open to dealing from that group.
On the pitching side of the equation, San Diego is set to open the year with a starting group of Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Nick Martínez. That wouldn’t leave spots for any of Chris Paddack, Reiss Knehr or former top prospects Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore. All four of those pitchers have options remaining, and the Friars could certainly opt to stockpile depth after seeing a series of rotation injuries contribute to a second-half collapse last year. Lin doesn’t specify any names whom the Padres are particularly inclined to move, to be clear. Yet as with the catching surplus, there may at least be enough depth for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to consider a move — particularly if one of those arms can bring back MLB-ready outfield help.
Trent Grisham is locked in as the center fielder, with Will Myers set to handle right field on most days. San Diego saw Tommy Pham depart in free agency, leaving Jurickson Profar and the newly-acquired Matt Beaty among the favorites for playing time in left. That’s not a great group of corner players for a hopeful contender, and the Pads have shopped both Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer throughout the offseason. Lin writes they’re still exploring possible Hosmer deals, although moving much of the remaining four years and $59MM on his deal has proven too tough a task so far. It’d probably be easier to move Myers, but that’d just further thin the corner outfield group.
Aside from Myers, Profar, Beaty and Grisham, the Padres don’t really have outfield options on the 40-man roster. Lin writes that manager Bob Melvin has already ruled out the possibility of moving second baseman Jake Cronenworth off the position, something the organization considered but never tried last offseason. Alfaro has some experience in left field but shouldn’t be more than an emergency option there. Trayce Thompson and Nomar Mazara are in camp as non-roster invitees and could both get big league looks, but neither is necessarily an upgrade over Profar and Beaty.
More interesting than the possibility of any of those veterans getting a spot is the chance for top prospect CJ Abrams to break camp with the club. A consensus top 15 prospect, Abrams only has 42 games of Double-A experience. He impressed there last year, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases, but his season was cut short when he fractured his left tibia in late June. That kept him from seeing his first Triple-A action.
Nevertheless, both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune have written this week the organization is considering carrying the 21-year-old on the MLB roster. That’s certainly not a given, as both Lin and Acee hear that some with the Padres believe he’d benefit from more time in the minors. Not only does he have limited experience against high level pitching, Abrams has never played a professional inning outside of the middle infield.
Given his athleticism — evaluators credit him with top-of-the-scale speed — there’s a belief he could handle all three outfield spots. Melvin acknowledged this afternoon he might give Abrams some consideration behind Grisham in center field (Acee link). Keeping him in the majors would allow San Diego some cover behind Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield while Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the injured list. Yet there’d certainly be risk in putting Abrams into a major league outfield right out of the gate, even in a utility capacity, and there’s an argument to be made for the Friars starting him at Triple-A El Paso. It’ll be known soon enough what route Preller, Melvin and the rest of the San Diego brass choose to take with the Opening Day roster.
Padres Could Find Themselves In Position To Deal From Catching Depth After Lockout
As the non-tender deadline approached in late November, the Padres and Marlins lined up on a minor trade. San Diego acquired catcher Jorge Alfaro for cash considerations or a player to be named later, not long after Miami had traded for Jacob Stallings to replace Alfaro as their primary backstop.
To some extent, it was a predictable acquisition. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a continued affinity for bringing in players whom the Rangers acquired during his time as a key figure in the Texas scouting department. Alfaro, whom the Rangers signed as an amateur in 2010 and who later blossomed into a top prospect, qualifies. Yet the Marlins had clearly grown dissatisfied with his up-and-down performance at the big league level, and they seemed likely to non-tender him in lieu of paying a projected $2.7MM arbitration salary if they were unable to find a taker in trade.
Yet it also marked something of a curious move for the Friars, who already had three catchers on the 40-man roster. Alfaro is out of minor league option years, meaning he’ll need to break camp with the club or be cut loose. At first glance, however, he’d seem to be fourth on the catching depth chart. Austin Nola’s first full season in San Diego was derailed by injury, but he’s an above-average backstop on both sides of the ball when healthy. Víctor Caratini didn’t have a great showing last year, but he has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and was behind the plate for 29 of Darvish’s 30 starts last season. Top prospect Luis Campusano doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 across 326 plate appearances as a 22-year-old in Triple-A.
With Alfaro needing to be on the big league club or cut loose, where does he fit? Perhaps just off the roster bubble. San Diego didn’t give up much to acquire Alfaro, after all. Arbitration salaries aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, with players cut loose during the first half of Spring Training only entitled to thirty days’ termination pay (around one-sixth of their full season salary). In Alfaro’s case, that’s likely to be a touch under $500K. Maybe Preller and his staff saw an opportunity to get a player they like in the building, and they’re willing to move on from him before the season starts if there’s simply no room on the roster.
That said, San Diego valued Alfaro enough to acquire him before the non-tender deadline, swooping in to grab his rights before Miami cut him loose and allowed him free rein to negotiate with all 30 teams. They did so knowing he’s out of options, so they’ve certainly contemplated scenarios where he breaks camp. It seems unlikely they’d carry each of Nola, Alfaro, Caratini and Campusano on the active roster, however.
Nola and Alfaro do each have some experience at first base and in the corner outfield; Nola can play a bit of second or third base as well. That’d perhaps give manager Bob Melvin some flexibility, but both players should spend the bulk of their time at catcher. Nola’s a solid defender behind the dish, and bouncing him to less valuable positions around the diamond to accommodate Caratini or Alfaro is probably less valuable than simply deploying Nola as the primary catcher. Alfaro could see some action rotating through the corners, but he’s spent far more time behind the plate than anywhere else (2,809 2/3 MLB innings at catcher, 144 2/3 innings in the outfield, 27 1/3 frames at first base) and probably isn’t a good enough hitter to live up to the offensive burden of regularly manning a corner.
Maybe the Padres keep Nola, Caratini and Alfaro around and option Campusano back to Triple-A to start the season. So long as he continues to perform well in El Paso, there’ll be pressure to get him major league reps. Campusano, whom Baseball America recently ranked the sport’s #53 overall prospect, arguably already warrants an everyday look. One could argue the Padres aren’t in position to provide that, and San Diego should at least consider the possibility of making him available on the trade market.
San Diego isn’t going to trade a prospect of that caliber expressly because they acquired Alfaro for a song, of course. Alfaro could be let go; the same is perhaps true of Caratini (who still has a minor league option remaining), although the organization no doubt values his rapport with Darvish. Yet having a pair of veteran depth options on hand behind Nola might give Preller and his staff more comfort in contemplating a Campusano trade, which might prove a way to bring back needed outfield help.
It wouldn’t be the first time Campusano’s name were to come up in trade talks. The Padres and Nationals discussed him last summer as part of San Diego’s (ultimately unsuccessful) efforts to land Trea Turner and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Campusano was also at least mentioned in talks about the Cubs assuming some or all of Eric Hosmer’s contract.
Shedding the money due to Hosmer would certainly still be of interest to the Padres, although it seems unlikely they’d part with Campusano solely as a way to cut payroll. We’ve seen instances of teams “buying” a prospect by taking on an undesirable contract (the Giants’ Will Wilson/Zack Cozart deal, the Red Sox/Brewers Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects for Hunter Renfroe swap are examples), but the young players involved in those moves weren’t as highly-regarded as Campusano currently is. If there’s an opportunity to move Campusano and Hosmer in a trade that also brings back MLB help — they and the Rangers reportedly kicked around frameworks of a deal that could’ve sent Hosmer and prospect Robert Hassell III to Texas for Joey Gallo last summer — San Diego could be more amenable.
However the situation resolves itself, it seems unlikely the Padres will carry all of Nola, Campusano, Caratini and Alfaro on the 40-man roster for too long after the lockout. Perhaps they’re simply stockpiling players of interest and will cut bait with one of the veteran depth options if they’re faced with a roster squeeze. But it also seems the Friars have enough short-term depth to withstand a possible Campusano trade, and we’ve repeatedly seen Preller’s willingness to act boldly if the right opportunity presents itself.
Padres Notes: Payroll, Campusano, Prospects
The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards. The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.
Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities. The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022. It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.
As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll. Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary. Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).
As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.” Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant. While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.
There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer. The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.
The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden. The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention. With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.
Padres Had “Strong Interest” In Trea Turner At Trade Deadline
The Dodgers’ blockbuster acquisition of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner was the biggest news of deadline season, though Los Angeles wasn’t the only NL West power looking to land that same duo from the Nationals. The Padres were reportedly close to getting Scherzer, and FanSided’s Robert Murray writes that San Diego also had “strong interest” in obtaining Turner.
Despite all these talks, there still seemed to be some distance between the Padres and Nationals in talks. Murray writes that “a deal was never close” for Turner, while even the Scherzer negotiations were described by one Washington source as “general back and forth.”
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman shed some more light on the Padres/Nationals talks, reporting that the Padres “floated a serious package” for both Scherzer and Turner, “with the idea of offering even more if Nats came back to them.” Washington apparently didn’t check back in with the Padres, instead taking the Dodgers’ offer of Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey. As a counter to Ruiz, San Diego’s offer might have also included a top-tier catching prospect, as Heyman says the Padres and Nationals discussed Luis Campusano.
Had Turner landed in San Diego, the initial plan likely would have been to install him at second base, just as the Dodgers did in order to fit both Turner and incumbent star shortstop Corey Seager into the same lineup. Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr. would have formed quite a combo up the middle for the Padres, though Turner would have ended up playing shortstop anyway, if Tatis had also re-injured his shoulder in this alternate reality. Turner might have also been the shortstop anyway, had a healthy Tatis instead been moved to the outfield in order to help preserve his shoulder.
Should Scherzer and Turner help the Dodgers win this year (or in 2022 when Turner will still be under contract), Padres fans will look back on this missed trade with regret, though of course it isn’t known exactly what the Nationals would have demanded from San Diego. The Dodgers and Padres are currently on pace to meet in the NL wild card game, with Los Angeles holding a three-game lead over San Diego in the standings. The Padres also have to worry about the surging Reds, who have moved to 3.5 games back of that second wild card berth.
Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets
Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline. This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”
That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego. Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight. It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.
On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries. Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.” The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda. San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.
Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season. Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season. Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state. Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.
The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season. A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.
A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.
Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar. Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started. The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip. Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.
Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason. With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons. Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.
What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air. The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions. In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.
Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two. The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.
Padres Activate Austin Nola, Option Luis Campusano
The Padres announced they’re activating catcher Austin Nola from the injured list before this evening’s game against the Diamondbacks. Fellow backstop Luis Campusano has been optioned to the alternate training site in a corresponding move. Víctor Caratini will get the start in tonight’s contest.
Nola will be making his regular season debut when he first gets on the field. He’s been out since fracturing his left middle finger during a Spring Training game on March 13. His return will be a welcome development for the Friars, who have started 13-12 in his absence. Acquired from the Mariners before last summer’s trade deadline, Nola hit .222/.324/.381 in 74 plate appearances down the stretch. That level of offense is more adequate than stellar, but the former Marlins farmhand put up a much stronger .280/.351/.476 mark over 377 plate appearances while playing quality defense for Seattle over the prior season-plus.
In Nola’s absence, the Padres have leaned on Caratini and Campusano behind the plate, to disappointing results. The former has posted a .236/.317/.327 slash over 63 plate appearances, while the latter has only mustered an .088/.184/.088 mark in 38 trips to the dish. Campusano is a supremely talented prospect, but he certainly looks as if he could use more developmental time in the minor leagues. That’s hardly surprising, as the 22-year-old had topped out at High-A in 2019 before last year’s minors cancellation.