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Nathan Eovaldi

Red Sox Offer Nathan Eovaldi A Multi-Year Contract

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The Red Sox have reportedly offered All-Star starter Nathan Eovaldi a multi-year contract, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, Bradford notes that a deal between the two parties is not imminent. News of talks between Boston and Eovaldi comes only a few days after the Red Sox issued the righty a qualifying offer (one-year, $19.65MM) that tied draft compensation to the veteran if he signs with a different team.

After making a career-high 32 starts (182 1/3 innings) in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with lower back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, the latter of which limited him to only seven starts in the second half of the season. When healthy, Eovaldi pitched to a strong 3.87 ERA, striking out 22.4% of batters while limiting walks (4.4%). The 22.4% strikeout rate represented a drop from his 2020 (26.1%) and 2021 (25.5%) rates but was accompanied by an increase in his ground ball rate, 47.3% compared to 42.1% in 2021.

Eovaldi had originally joined the Red Sox in 2018, being flipped in late July by the Rays for Jalen Beeks. He quickly earned his worth, helping the franchise win the 2018 World Series before re-signing with Boston on a four-year, $68MM deal that offseason. Over the course of that contract, Eovaldi made 53 starts, pitching 281 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA baseball with strong strikeout (24.4%) and walk (5.6%) rates.

As seen in our 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agent With Predictions list, MLBTR expected Eovaldi to receive a shorter deal (2-year, $34MM) after missing part of the season with injuries.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Red Sox Activate Nathan Eovaldi; Trevor Story Unlikely To Return This Season

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The Red Sox announced Thursday that righty Nathan Eovaldi has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Connor Seabold has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester in his place. Additionally, it now appears unlikely that Trevor Story will return to the Sox in 2022. Story, currently shelved with a heel injury, had been hoping to return for the final series of the season but has fallen ill (on top of that injury) and is now “very unlikely” to get back to the active roster in 2022, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets.

Eovaldi’s return is an important one not necessarily for the Red Sox, who’ve long since been eliminated from postseason contention, but for the pitcher himself. The 32-year-old Eovaldi is wrapping up the final season of a four-year, $68MM contract and is slated to become a free agent at season’s end. He’s been out more than a month due to a shoulder injury, so returning today gives him the opportunity to demonstrate his health over two more starts before the end of the year. That’ll also give the Sox a bit more information as they weigh a potential qualifying offer for Eovaldi.

It’s been something of an up-and-down year for Eovaldi, who was terrific through mid-June before landing on the injured list due to a back injury. That issue also cost Eovaldi a month, and he briefly experienced a velocity dip and poor results upon his activation. He got back on track for three starts, beginning Aug. 1, but then hit the shelf with this most recent shoulder ailment.

Even with the slight dip in performance in July, Eovaldi’s overall numbers are sound. He’s logged a 4.15 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.3% walk rate in 99 2/3 innings this season — a continuation of the strong results he enjoyed with Boston from 2020-21. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Eovaldi carries a collective 3.87 ERA in 330 1/3 frames. He’s fanned nearly one quarter of his opponents in that time and his 4.3% walk rate trails only Clayton Kershaw for the MLB lead in that span (min. 200 innings pitched).

A healthy Eovaldi is an easy call to receive a qualifying offer, so it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on his performance over the next two outings. Cotillo noted that he’ll be capped around 65 pitches today, so it’s unlikely he’ll go deep into the game, but there will still be plenty to be gleaned from even a four- or five-inning outing. It also stands to reason that Eovaldi could push a bit further in what would be his final start of the season next week.

As for Story, this latest injury and illness will apparently close the book on what was a discouraging first season in Boston. Signed over the winter to a six-year, $140MM contract, Story stumbled out of the gates, and while he had a pair of torrid hot streaks (from mid-May into early June and from August into September), those were surrounded by prolonged cold spells at the plate. In the end, his 2022 campaign will end with a .238/.304/.434 slash, 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 396 plate appearances.

Defensively Story posted impressive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (six) and Outs Above Average (ten) despite appearing in only 813 innings on the field. The move to second base suited him quite well, but his future position remains to be determined. Xander Bogaerts will opt out of his contract at season’s end and reject a qualifying offer, but the Sox will surely have interest in re-signing him. If Bogaerts heads elsewhere, Story is certainly capable of sliding back over to shortstop — a position at which he starred in Colorado for the first six seasons of his career. Alternatively, the Sox could seek shortstop alternatives and keep Story at second base, where he’s played Gold Glove-caliber defense in 2022.

Story is still owed $120MM over the next five years, although his contract allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. The team can negate that opt-out by instead preemptively exercising a $25MM club option on the 2028 season for Story, which would push his total contract to seven years and $160MM.

Pitching Notes: Berrios, Giolito, Eovaldi, Minor

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The Toronto Blue Jays may have some difficulty carving out a role for José Berríos in their postseason rotation. Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star pointed out in a Thursday opinion piece that in a scenario that sees the Jays go to a third game in the AL Wild Card Series, Berríos could find himself coming out of the bullpen.

Berríos has not been the pitcher Toronto had hoped he would be since the club gave him the second largest contract in franchise history in terms of total value last offseason. Nearly a season into his seven-year, $131 million extension, the twenty-eight year old right-hander has struggled to turn out quality outings with any consistency. Excluding a rough rookie season, Berríos is posting career worsts in ERA, WHIP, K/9, HR/9, BABIP, and HardHit%. He is also not trending in the right direction, accumulating a 6.92 ERA in the month of August and conceding six earned runs in just two innings to the Rays on Thursday night.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman are the presumptive choices for the Jays’ first two games of the best-of-three Wild Card Series. If that series goes to a decisive third game, barring injury, manager John Schneider will likely face a choice between starting Ross Stripling, who has had an excellent 2022, or Berríos.

More on other pitching situations from around the league…

  • White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is another tenured AL ace that has not pitched to his potential in 2022. His 5.05 ERA, 1.477 WHIP, and 9.9 H/9 are his worst since he broke out in 2019. After a September 16th start in which he gutted out 4 2/3 innings of one run ball, Giolito told James Fagan of The Athletic that his stuff was “obviously just like, not really there,” as it has been for most of the season. He continued on to cite a lack of fastball velocity as a chief contributor to his 2022 struggles. Giolito’s four-seam velocity has averaged 92.9 mph this season, a full 1.5 mph slower than his 2019 peak. The Sox can retain him for one more season via arbitration before he is scheduled to reach free agency as a 29-year-old, with Giolito surely hoping to find a way to have a better campaign in his platform year.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, who will be a free agent this offseason, alluded to his desire to re-sign with the Red Sox in an interview with Chad Jennings of The Athletic. “I love being here,” Eovaldi said. “It’s the front office, it’s the coaching staff, the training staff. Here, they all want to win.” It is unclear whether the 32-year old fits into Boston’s future plans. The Red Sox are on the precipice of a potentially turbulent offseason in which Eovaldi and DH J.D. Martinez are free agents and the contracts of superstars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts have yet to be resolved. Boston’s uncertain future, in addition to the fact that Eovaldi spent so much of his 2018 pact with the Red Sox on the IL, casts some doubt on the notion that Red Sox will share Eovaldi’s interest in a reunion. However, with Rich Hill and Michael Wacha both headed into free agency as well, the club will certainly be looking to fill some rotation holes for 2023.
  • Reds lefty Mike Minor told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is considering retirement at the conclusion of the 2022 season. “I’d have to feel good, and I’d have to want to play and want to be away from my family again,” Minor said. Three years removed from an All-Star nod with the Rangers, Minor battled injuries for the first two months of 2022. In total, he has thrown 98 innings to the tune of a 6.06 ERA for a non-competitive Reds team. Minor will face free agency this offseason should he elect to return to the big-leagues for a 12th year.

AL Notes: Rodriguez, Cabrera, Story, Eovaldi, Red Sox

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Julio Rodriguez has missed the Mariners’ last two games due to lower back soreness, and the rookie star told The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters that “I feel a few days of rest will be the best thing for it.”  There’s a chance Rodriguez could be back as early as Monday’s game with the Angels, though manager Scott Servais noted that the situation is “day to day,” especially since Monday’s contest is an afternoon start.

As much as Seattle needs all hands on deck for its playoff chase, nobody wants to risk a longer-term injury to Rodriguez, who has already emerged as one of baseball’s brightest stars.  After a brief slump in August, Rodriguez has a whopping 1.259 OPS over 59 plate appearances in September, even though he said is still getting used to the physical toll of a full Major League season.  “I’m not familiar with playing for such a long time,” Rodriguez said.  “It’s been teaching me a few things and I’m learning about my body and how to keep it healthy.”

While the Mariners hope Rodriguez’s rookie year will be extending deep into October, here are some more items from around the American League…

  • The Tigers will activate Miguel Cabrera from the 10-day injured list on Monday, and infielder Kody Clemens has already been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Cabrera on the active roster.  A left biceps strain has kept Cabrera on the shelf since September 2, but he’ll return for some more action in his 20th Major League season.  Over 393 PA this year, Cabrera is hitting .256/.305/.317 with four home runs.  Since a milestone watch is inevitably attached to Cabrera, the veteran slugger’s 506 career homers is three back of Gary Sheffield for 26th place on the all-time list, and Cabrera’s 3079 career hits put him 10 behind Ichiro Suzuki for 24th all-time.
  • Trevor Story has missed five games due to left heel soreness, but he is tentatively slated to return to the Red Sox lineup on Tuesday, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams).  In other injury news, Nathan Eovaldi threw 65 pitches during a four-inning simulated game today, and the next step could be a minor league rehab game on Friday.  Eovaldi has missed almost a full month due to right shoulder inflammation, but is hoping to get back to the mound at least one more start with the Sox before the season is over.
  • The Red Sox designated Kevin Plawecki for assignment after Friday night’s game, and both the late timing of the transaction and the transaction itself didn’t sit well within the clubhouse.  Both Eovaldi and Rich Hill spoke to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford about Plawecki’s popularity and the importance of veteran leaders in general on a team, with Eovaldi saying “I think sometimes that goes a little further than productivity or whatever on the field.”  After today’s 13-3 victory over the Royals, McWilliams and other reporters noted that the Sox were playing Robyn’s “Dancing On My Own” within the clubhouse, a song adopted by Plawecki as both a walkup song and as a team anthem in 2021.

Red Sox Place Nathan Eovaldi, Eric Hosmer On Injured List

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The Red Sox have placed right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and first baseman Eric Hosmer on the injured list, with Eovaldi heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to August 19) and Hosmer to the 10-day IL (retro August 21).  Right-hander Josh Winckowski and first baseman Franchy Cordero were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves, and Winckowski will start tonight’s game against the Blue Jays.

Eovaldi has been bothered by soreness in his neck and right shoulder, and an IL placement isn’t surprising given that he’d already been scratched from a start against the Pirates last Thursday and tonight’s start against Toronto.  Officially, Eovaldi is now on the 15-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation, and he also missed a month due to back inflammation earlier this season.

Over the weekend, Eovaldi told reporters that his soreness was improving and that he hoped to avoid another IL trip altogether.  This at least gives some hope that Eovaldi can return when first eligible, though he’ll now be out of action until September, leaving the Red Sox short a major arm at the front of their rotation.

Multiple injuries within the rotation allowed Winckowski to make 12 starts and pitch 60 2/3 innings in his first Major League season.  The righty has only a 5.19 ERA, as his grounder-heavy, low-strikeout approach hasn’t yet found much consistent success against MLB batters.

Hosmer has been sidelined due to lower back inflammation.  Since being acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline, Hosmer has hit .225/.311/.300 in his first 45 plate appearances with Boston, continuing the prolonged slump that has lasted for the veteran first baseman since he enjoyed a huge April.  Cordero and Bobby Dalbec figure to get most of the first base time in Hosmer’s absence, with the versatile Christian Arroyo also perhaps factoring into the mix.

One name not yet involved is Triston Casas, as the Red Sox continued to hold off giving the top prospect his first taste of big league action.  His development was slowed by a high ankle sprain that cost him two months of the season, but Casas has hit a solid (if not dominant) .258/.367/.458 over 270 PA with Triple-A Worcester.  It seems likely that Casas will make his MLB debut before the season is out, though the question is when exactly the Sox will decide to take their first look at the 22-year-old.

Nathan Eovaldi Likely To Be Placed On IL Due To Neck/Shoulder Soreness

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Aug. 22: Chris Cotillo of MassLive tweets that Eovaldi will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list in order to make room on the roster for Josh Winckowski, who is taking the ball in Eovaldi’s place for tomorrow’s game.

Aug. 21: The Red Sox skipped Nathan Eovaldi’s last turn through the rotation since the right-hander was dealing with soreness in his neck and shoulder.  The issue is still bothering Eovaldi, and manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter links) and other reporters that Eovaldi won’t make his next start, scheduled for Tuesday against the Blue Jays.  Another trip to the injured list hasn’t been ruled out, though Cora said the Sox haven’t yet decided how to proceed.

For Eovaldi, he said that staying off the IL is “the main goal,” since he is “feeling a lot better” than earlier in the week, even if the recovery process is “going a little slower than we anticipated.”  Needless to say, it has been a “frustrating” time for the righty, who said that “every day, it’s just how can we make sure that I’m 100 percent especially going down the road for this next stretch.”

Eovaldi already missed a little more than month of the season due to inflammation in his lower back, and injuries have hampered the right-hander for much of his career.  2021 was a rare healthy season for Eovaldi, and he responded with a 3.75 ERA over 182 1/3 innings and a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting — indicative of just how high Eovaldi’s ceiling can be if he can just stay on the field.

With a 4.15 ERA over 99 2/3 innings this season, Eovaldi’s bottom-line numbers aren’t far off his 2021 totals, and he still has an elite walk rate.  However, Eovaldi has allowed more hard contact than almost any other pitcher in the league, and his strikeout has dropped to a middling 22.7%.  Despite this step backwards, Eovaldi is still arguably Boston’s best starting pitcher, and is critical to whatever chance the Red Sox might still have of sneaking back into the wild card hunt.

In the bigger picture, Eovaldi is also a free agent after the season, and would surely prefer to reach the open market without yet another IL stint on his resume.  Eovaldi already hasn’t appeared in a game since August 12, and even with up to three days of backdating available on an injured-list placement, putting Eovaldi on the IL would keep him out of action until September.  If Eovaldi is already feeling some improvement, the Sox could take the risk of leaving him off the IL, though another setback (which presumably would then make an IL stint a foregone conclusion) would delay his return even further.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Red Sox Listening On Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill

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4:35PM: The Cardinals, Phillies, and Twins are all interested in Hill, as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.

1:24PM: Most of the talk regarding the Red Sox in recent days has centered on designated hitter J.D. Martinez and the since-traded Christian Vazquez, but Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox are open to dealing right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, though they’re not planning to simply take the best offer presented for him. Boston is, after all, still on the periphery of the Wild Card race — and Eovaldi represents a potential qualifying offer candidate. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that lefty Rich Hill is “almost certainly in play” as well.

Eovaldi stands as one of the higher-profile names on the rental market. However, he’s a fairly pricey option, earning $17MM this season (with just over $6MM of that sum yet to be paid out), and has had some struggles since a June trip to the injured list. A back injury sidelined Eovaldi for a month, from June 12 through July 15, and the right-hander was torched for 16 earned runs in his first three starts upon returning — a total of just 13 innings.

Eovaldi held a potent Astros lineup scoreless through 6 1/3 frames last night, which may ease some concerns, but the right-hander’s fastball velocity has been down since sustaining that back injury. After averaging 96.9 mph on his heater from Opening Day through June 3, Eovaldi has an average of 94.5 mph on the pitch in his past five appearances — including a 94.3 mph average last night.

It bears emphasizing that even with the recent struggles, Eovaldi is sporting a respectable 4.11 ERA with a roughly average 23.1% strikeout rate, a brilliant 4.3% walk rate and an above-average 47.8% grounder rate. Interested parties will surely place a premium, to some extent, on the right-hander’s considerable postseason resume as well. Eovaldi was an absolute juggernaut in the 2018 playoffs, propelling the Red Sox to a World Series victory with 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball. He stumbled in the 2021 ALCS against the Astros, but Eovaldi nonetheless has a career 3.14 ERA and 41-to-8 K/BB ratio in 43 postseason frames.

As for the veteran Hill, he’s playing on a one-year, $5MM deal with some incentives that could reasonably boost the contract by another $500K to $1MM. Hill’s incentives package kicks in at 110 innings pitched, and he’s currently at 70 2/3 frames on the year. In that time, he’s pitched to a 4.20 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s averaging under five innings per start, so it’s unlikely he reaches the 150- and 160-innings thresholds at which his most lucrative bonuses are slated to kick in, but he stands a decent chance of upping that salary a bit if he can remain healthy.

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