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Nathan Eovaldi

Pitching Notes: Berrios, Giolito, Eovaldi, Minor

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The Toronto Blue Jays may have some difficulty carving out a role for José Berríos in their postseason rotation. Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star pointed out in a Thursday opinion piece that in a scenario that sees the Jays go to a third game in the AL Wild Card Series, Berríos could find himself coming out of the bullpen.

Berríos has not been the pitcher Toronto had hoped he would be since the club gave him the second largest contract in franchise history in terms of total value last offseason. Nearly a season into his seven-year, $131 million extension, the twenty-eight year old right-hander has struggled to turn out quality outings with any consistency. Excluding a rough rookie season, Berríos is posting career worsts in ERA, WHIP, K/9, HR/9, BABIP, and HardHit%. He is also not trending in the right direction, accumulating a 6.92 ERA in the month of August and conceding six earned runs in just two innings to the Rays on Thursday night.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman are the presumptive choices for the Jays’ first two games of the best-of-three Wild Card Series. If that series goes to a decisive third game, barring injury, manager John Schneider will likely face a choice between starting Ross Stripling, who has had an excellent 2022, or Berríos.

More on other pitching situations from around the league…

  • White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is another tenured AL ace that has not pitched to his potential in 2022. His 5.05 ERA, 1.477 WHIP, and 9.9 H/9 are his worst since he broke out in 2019. After a September 16th start in which he gutted out 4 2/3 innings of one run ball, Giolito told James Fagan of The Athletic that his stuff was “obviously just like, not really there,” as it has been for most of the season. He continued on to cite a lack of fastball velocity as a chief contributor to his 2022 struggles. Giolito’s four-seam velocity has averaged 92.9 mph this season, a full 1.5 mph slower than his 2019 peak. The Sox can retain him for one more season via arbitration before he is scheduled to reach free agency as a 29-year-old, with Giolito surely hoping to find a way to have a better campaign in his platform year.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, who will be a free agent this offseason, alluded to his desire to re-sign with the Red Sox in an interview with Chad Jennings of The Athletic. “I love being here,” Eovaldi said. “It’s the front office, it’s the coaching staff, the training staff. Here, they all want to win.” It is unclear whether the 32-year old fits into Boston’s future plans. The Red Sox are on the precipice of a potentially turbulent offseason in which Eovaldi and DH J.D. Martinez are free agents and the contracts of superstars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts have yet to be resolved. Boston’s uncertain future, in addition to the fact that Eovaldi spent so much of his 2018 pact with the Red Sox on the IL, casts some doubt on the notion that Red Sox will share Eovaldi’s interest in a reunion. However, with Rich Hill and Michael Wacha both headed into free agency as well, the club will certainly be looking to fill some rotation holes for 2023.
  • Reds lefty Mike Minor told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is considering retirement at the conclusion of the 2022 season. “I’d have to feel good, and I’d have to want to play and want to be away from my family again,” Minor said. Three years removed from an All-Star nod with the Rangers, Minor battled injuries for the first two months of 2022. In total, he has thrown 98 innings to the tune of a 6.06 ERA for a non-competitive Reds team. Minor will face free agency this offseason should he elect to return to the big-leagues for a 12th year.

AL Notes: Rodriguez, Cabrera, Story, Eovaldi, Red Sox

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Julio Rodriguez has missed the Mariners’ last two games due to lower back soreness, and the rookie star told The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters that “I feel a few days of rest will be the best thing for it.”  There’s a chance Rodriguez could be back as early as Monday’s game with the Angels, though manager Scott Servais noted that the situation is “day to day,” especially since Monday’s contest is an afternoon start.

As much as Seattle needs all hands on deck for its playoff chase, nobody wants to risk a longer-term injury to Rodriguez, who has already emerged as one of baseball’s brightest stars.  After a brief slump in August, Rodriguez has a whopping 1.259 OPS over 59 plate appearances in September, even though he said is still getting used to the physical toll of a full Major League season.  “I’m not familiar with playing for such a long time,” Rodriguez said.  “It’s been teaching me a few things and I’m learning about my body and how to keep it healthy.”

While the Mariners hope Rodriguez’s rookie year will be extending deep into October, here are some more items from around the American League…

  • The Tigers will activate Miguel Cabrera from the 10-day injured list on Monday, and infielder Kody Clemens has already been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Cabrera on the active roster.  A left biceps strain has kept Cabrera on the shelf since September 2, but he’ll return for some more action in his 20th Major League season.  Over 393 PA this year, Cabrera is hitting .256/.305/.317 with four home runs.  Since a milestone watch is inevitably attached to Cabrera, the veteran slugger’s 506 career homers is three back of Gary Sheffield for 26th place on the all-time list, and Cabrera’s 3079 career hits put him 10 behind Ichiro Suzuki for 24th all-time.
  • Trevor Story has missed five games due to left heel soreness, but he is tentatively slated to return to the Red Sox lineup on Tuesday, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams).  In other injury news, Nathan Eovaldi threw 65 pitches during a four-inning simulated game today, and the next step could be a minor league rehab game on Friday.  Eovaldi has missed almost a full month due to right shoulder inflammation, but is hoping to get back to the mound at least one more start with the Sox before the season is over.
  • The Red Sox designated Kevin Plawecki for assignment after Friday night’s game, and both the late timing of the transaction and the transaction itself didn’t sit well within the clubhouse.  Both Eovaldi and Rich Hill spoke to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford about Plawecki’s popularity and the importance of veteran leaders in general on a team, with Eovaldi saying “I think sometimes that goes a little further than productivity or whatever on the field.”  After today’s 13-3 victory over the Royals, McWilliams and other reporters noted that the Sox were playing Robyn’s “Dancing On My Own” within the clubhouse, a song adopted by Plawecki as both a walkup song and as a team anthem in 2021.

Red Sox Place Nathan Eovaldi, Eric Hosmer On Injured List

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The Red Sox have placed right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and first baseman Eric Hosmer on the injured list, with Eovaldi heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to August 19) and Hosmer to the 10-day IL (retro August 21).  Right-hander Josh Winckowski and first baseman Franchy Cordero were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves, and Winckowski will start tonight’s game against the Blue Jays.

Eovaldi has been bothered by soreness in his neck and right shoulder, and an IL placement isn’t surprising given that he’d already been scratched from a start against the Pirates last Thursday and tonight’s start against Toronto.  Officially, Eovaldi is now on the 15-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation, and he also missed a month due to back inflammation earlier this season.

Over the weekend, Eovaldi told reporters that his soreness was improving and that he hoped to avoid another IL trip altogether.  This at least gives some hope that Eovaldi can return when first eligible, though he’ll now be out of action until September, leaving the Red Sox short a major arm at the front of their rotation.

Multiple injuries within the rotation allowed Winckowski to make 12 starts and pitch 60 2/3 innings in his first Major League season.  The righty has only a 5.19 ERA, as his grounder-heavy, low-strikeout approach hasn’t yet found much consistent success against MLB batters.

Hosmer has been sidelined due to lower back inflammation.  Since being acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline, Hosmer has hit .225/.311/.300 in his first 45 plate appearances with Boston, continuing the prolonged slump that has lasted for the veteran first baseman since he enjoyed a huge April.  Cordero and Bobby Dalbec figure to get most of the first base time in Hosmer’s absence, with the versatile Christian Arroyo also perhaps factoring into the mix.

One name not yet involved is Triston Casas, as the Red Sox continued to hold off giving the top prospect his first taste of big league action.  His development was slowed by a high ankle sprain that cost him two months of the season, but Casas has hit a solid (if not dominant) .258/.367/.458 over 270 PA with Triple-A Worcester.  It seems likely that Casas will make his MLB debut before the season is out, though the question is when exactly the Sox will decide to take their first look at the 22-year-old.

Nathan Eovaldi Likely To Be Placed On IL Due To Neck/Shoulder Soreness

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Aug. 22: Chris Cotillo of MassLive tweets that Eovaldi will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list in order to make room on the roster for Josh Winckowski, who is taking the ball in Eovaldi’s place for tomorrow’s game.

Aug. 21: The Red Sox skipped Nathan Eovaldi’s last turn through the rotation since the right-hander was dealing with soreness in his neck and shoulder.  The issue is still bothering Eovaldi, and manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter links) and other reporters that Eovaldi won’t make his next start, scheduled for Tuesday against the Blue Jays.  Another trip to the injured list hasn’t been ruled out, though Cora said the Sox haven’t yet decided how to proceed.

For Eovaldi, he said that staying off the IL is “the main goal,” since he is “feeling a lot better” than earlier in the week, even if the recovery process is “going a little slower than we anticipated.”  Needless to say, it has been a “frustrating” time for the righty, who said that “every day, it’s just how can we make sure that I’m 100 percent especially going down the road for this next stretch.”

Eovaldi already missed a little more than month of the season due to inflammation in his lower back, and injuries have hampered the right-hander for much of his career.  2021 was a rare healthy season for Eovaldi, and he responded with a 3.75 ERA over 182 1/3 innings and a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting — indicative of just how high Eovaldi’s ceiling can be if he can just stay on the field.

With a 4.15 ERA over 99 2/3 innings this season, Eovaldi’s bottom-line numbers aren’t far off his 2021 totals, and he still has an elite walk rate.  However, Eovaldi has allowed more hard contact than almost any other pitcher in the league, and his strikeout has dropped to a middling 22.7%.  Despite this step backwards, Eovaldi is still arguably Boston’s best starting pitcher, and is critical to whatever chance the Red Sox might still have of sneaking back into the wild card hunt.

In the bigger picture, Eovaldi is also a free agent after the season, and would surely prefer to reach the open market without yet another IL stint on his resume.  Eovaldi already hasn’t appeared in a game since August 12, and even with up to three days of backdating available on an injured-list placement, putting Eovaldi on the IL would keep him out of action until September.  If Eovaldi is already feeling some improvement, the Sox could take the risk of leaving him off the IL, though another setback (which presumably would then make an IL stint a foregone conclusion) would delay his return even further.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Red Sox Listening On Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill

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4:35PM: The Cardinals, Phillies, and Twins are all interested in Hill, as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.

1:24PM: Most of the talk regarding the Red Sox in recent days has centered on designated hitter J.D. Martinez and the since-traded Christian Vazquez, but Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox are open to dealing right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, though they’re not planning to simply take the best offer presented for him. Boston is, after all, still on the periphery of the Wild Card race — and Eovaldi represents a potential qualifying offer candidate. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that lefty Rich Hill is “almost certainly in play” as well.

Eovaldi stands as one of the higher-profile names on the rental market. However, he’s a fairly pricey option, earning $17MM this season (with just over $6MM of that sum yet to be paid out), and has had some struggles since a June trip to the injured list. A back injury sidelined Eovaldi for a month, from June 12 through July 15, and the right-hander was torched for 16 earned runs in his first three starts upon returning — a total of just 13 innings.

Eovaldi held a potent Astros lineup scoreless through 6 1/3 frames last night, which may ease some concerns, but the right-hander’s fastball velocity has been down since sustaining that back injury. After averaging 96.9 mph on his heater from Opening Day through June 3, Eovaldi has an average of 94.5 mph on the pitch in his past five appearances — including a 94.3 mph average last night.

It bears emphasizing that even with the recent struggles, Eovaldi is sporting a respectable 4.11 ERA with a roughly average 23.1% strikeout rate, a brilliant 4.3% walk rate and an above-average 47.8% grounder rate. Interested parties will surely place a premium, to some extent, on the right-hander’s considerable postseason resume as well. Eovaldi was an absolute juggernaut in the 2018 playoffs, propelling the Red Sox to a World Series victory with 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball. He stumbled in the 2021 ALCS against the Astros, but Eovaldi nonetheless has a career 3.14 ERA and 41-to-8 K/BB ratio in 43 postseason frames.

As for the veteran Hill, he’s playing on a one-year, $5MM deal with some incentives that could reasonably boost the contract by another $500K to $1MM. Hill’s incentives package kicks in at 110 innings pitched, and he’s currently at 70 2/3 frames on the year. In that time, he’s pitched to a 4.20 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s averaging under five innings per start, so it’s unlikely he reaches the 150- and 160-innings thresholds at which his most lucrative bonuses are slated to kick in, but he stands a decent chance of upping that salary a bit if he can remain healthy.

Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Cardinals Interested In Jake Odorizzi

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Frankie Montas has been the name most attached to the Cardinals in their pitching search, yet St. Louis has also been exploring other rotation options.  The Cards and Astros have discussed the possibility of a trade involving veteran righty Jake Odorizzi, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  In addition, such names as Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi were “at least discussed internally” by the Cardinals’ front office as possible targets.

Odorizzi has been on the Cards’ radar for some time, as the club considered signing the right-hander as a free agent during the 2020-21 offseason.  Instead, Odorizzi signed a two-year deal with Houston worth $23.25MM in guaranteed money, with the 2023 season also covered via a $6.25MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout.  A variety of injuries have limited Odorizzi to 157 2/3 innings over his two years with the Astros, but he has posted a 4.22 ERA despite only a 19.5% strikeout rate.  The righty has relied on above-average walk rates and (in 2022) an outstanding hard-contact rate to retire batters.

Acquiring Odorizzi would have some echoes of the Cards’ deadline moves last year, when they landed veterans Jon Lester, J.A. Happ, and Wade LeBlanc in the wake of several rotation injuries.  Odorizzi at least has much better bottom-line results than that trio did when St. Louis swung those trades, and yet the Cardinals’ hope in a turn-around was rewarded, as all three pitched well and helped the Cards reach the wild card game.

St. Louis fans weren’t overly impressed with the club’s strategy at last year’s deadline, and given all the other big names linked to the Cards in trade rumors this summer, landing “only” Odorizzi to address the rotation could be again seen as underwhelming.  However, since the A’s are known to be asking for a ton for Montas and surely the Angels and Red Sox would want a good return even for rentals like Syndergaard or Eovaldi, Odorizzi could be a decent Plan C-type of option if the Cards feel the other asking prices are too high…..or, if the Cardinals direct their prospect capital towards acquiring someone like Juan Soto.

It is also possible that the Cardinals could land more than one of these pitchers, as the club has an increasingly acute need for rotation depth.  Beyond Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Dakota Hudson (activated off the 15-day injured list today) and Matthew Liberatore comprise the current starting five, as Jack Flaherty is still weeks away from returning from shoulder problems.

Steven Matz was supposed to provide some help when he returned from his own IL stint last week, except the left-hander tore his MCL in his return start.  It isn’t known yet if Matz will need surgery, yet President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold and other reporters today that there is only a “sliver” of a chance Matz pitches again in 2022, and it will be “very, very difficult to get him back this year.”

Turning to the Astros’ situation, trading Odorizzi would seem like an unusual move for a World Series contender that theoretically would want as much pitching depth as possible for a deep run through October.  However, the Astros could feel they have such depth already, with a six-man rotation on the active roster, Lance McCullers Jr. on his way back from the 60-day IL, and some other young arms in reserve in the minors.

To that end, Houston has reportedly been willing to discuss trades of controllable pitchers with other teams.  Odorizzi doesn’t exactly fit that description, of course, but it would seem like the Astros would be a lot more open to moving a veteran rather than a longer-term rotation piece like Cristian Javier or Jose Urquidy.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Vazquez, Martinez, Mets, Vientos

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As the Red Sox continue to struggle, it seems increasingly likely that the team will be selling in some capacity at the trade deadline, even if the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers aren’t going anywhere.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Sox were already open to offers for J.D. Martinez, and The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter links) hears from a National League evaluator that catcher Christian Vazquez could also be available.  The Sox seem to be “listening on veterans” in general, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweets.

Both Martinez and Vazquez are free agents after the year, so it would seem natural that the Red Sox would first look to move these shorter-term players with the deadline looming.  Other pending free agents include Jackie Bradley Jr. (whose mutual option for 2023 is likely to be declined), several injured players like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Enrique Hernandez, and Matt Strahm, plus the potential biggest trade chip of starter Nathan Eovaldi.

However, Speier writes that Boston “doesn’t seem motivated to deal Eovaldi, seeing him as part of any push to contend” into August, if the Red Sox can shake out of their slump.  That said, if the Luis Castillo trade now becomes “an accelerant to the rest of the pitching market,” it is worth wondering if the Sox might see an opportunity to move Eovaldi for a big return.

Of note, the Mets had a scout at last night’s Red Sox game, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Mets are known to be looking at catching and lineup upgrades, so Vazquez and Martinez would each make sense — Martinez in particular could help the Mets solve their season-long lack of production at the DH spot.  As to what New York could offer in return, Rosenthal notes that the Sox had a past interest in Dominic Smith, who would fit the team’s desire to land big leaguers back in trades (adding to the idea that Boston is still hoping to make a late playoff run).

A player on the cusp of the majors could also fit Boston’s model, with SNY’s Andy Martino suggesting that Mets infield prospect Mark Vientos could be of interest in trade talks.  In fact, Martino reports that the Mets and Red Sox once “seriously discussed” a deal that would’ve sent Vazquez to Queens in exchange for a prospect package that included Vientos.  The exact timing of these specific talks involving Vientos isn’t known, but the Mets reportedly looked into Vazquez prior to the 2020 trade deadline.

Vientos was a second-round pick for the Mets in the 2017 draft, and the 22-year-old has an impressive 21 home runs and a .263/.351/.516 slash line over 348 plate appearances at Triple-A Syracuse.  Baseball America ranks Vientos as the fourth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, praising his 60-grade power and throwing arm and noting that he has a chance to stick at third base, even if some evaluators think a move to first base will eventually be necessary.

For all of Vientos’ potential, he is generally seen as a step below the true upper tier of Mets prospects, so New York could perhaps be more apt to move him for immediate help (even for a rental like Martinez or Vazquez) given how aggressively the Mets are chasing a World Series title this year.  It can’t be ruled out that some kind of multi-player agreement could be struck, with both Martinez and Vazquez heading to Queens in exchange for a better prospect return.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

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