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Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Cardinals Interested In Jake Odorizzi

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Frankie Montas has been the name most attached to the Cardinals in their pitching search, yet St. Louis has also been exploring other rotation options.  The Cards and Astros have discussed the possibility of a trade involving veteran righty Jake Odorizzi, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  In addition, such names as Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi were “at least discussed internally” by the Cardinals’ front office as possible targets.

Odorizzi has been on the Cards’ radar for some time, as the club considered signing the right-hander as a free agent during the 2020-21 offseason.  Instead, Odorizzi signed a two-year deal with Houston worth $23.25MM in guaranteed money, with the 2023 season also covered via a $6.25MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout.  A variety of injuries have limited Odorizzi to 157 2/3 innings over his two years with the Astros, but he has posted a 4.22 ERA despite only a 19.5% strikeout rate.  The righty has relied on above-average walk rates and (in 2022) an outstanding hard-contact rate to retire batters.

Acquiring Odorizzi would have some echoes of the Cards’ deadline moves last year, when they landed veterans Jon Lester, J.A. Happ, and Wade LeBlanc in the wake of several rotation injuries.  Odorizzi at least has much better bottom-line results than that trio did when St. Louis swung those trades, and yet the Cardinals’ hope in a turn-around was rewarded, as all three pitched well and helped the Cards reach the wild card game.

St. Louis fans weren’t overly impressed with the club’s strategy at last year’s deadline, and given all the other big names linked to the Cards in trade rumors this summer, landing “only” Odorizzi to address the rotation could be again seen as underwhelming.  However, since the A’s are known to be asking for a ton for Montas and surely the Angels and Red Sox would want a good return even for rentals like Syndergaard or Eovaldi, Odorizzi could be a decent Plan C-type of option if the Cards feel the other asking prices are too high…..or, if the Cardinals direct their prospect capital towards acquiring someone like Juan Soto.

It is also possible that the Cardinals could land more than one of these pitchers, as the club has an increasingly acute need for rotation depth.  Beyond Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Dakota Hudson (activated off the 15-day injured list today) and Matthew Liberatore comprise the current starting five, as Jack Flaherty is still weeks away from returning from shoulder problems.

Steven Matz was supposed to provide some help when he returned from his own IL stint last week, except the left-hander tore his MCL in his return start.  It isn’t known yet if Matz will need surgery, yet President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold and other reporters today that there is only a “sliver” of a chance Matz pitches again in 2022, and it will be “very, very difficult to get him back this year.”

Turning to the Astros’ situation, trading Odorizzi would seem like an unusual move for a World Series contender that theoretically would want as much pitching depth as possible for a deep run through October.  However, the Astros could feel they have such depth already, with a six-man rotation on the active roster, Lance McCullers Jr. on his way back from the 60-day IL, and some other young arms in reserve in the minors.

To that end, Houston has reportedly been willing to discuss trades of controllable pitchers with other teams.  Odorizzi doesn’t exactly fit that description, of course, but it would seem like the Astros would be a lot more open to moving a veteran rather than a longer-term rotation piece like Cristian Javier or Jose Urquidy.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Vazquez, Martinez, Mets, Vientos

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As the Red Sox continue to struggle, it seems increasingly likely that the team will be selling in some capacity at the trade deadline, even if the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers aren’t going anywhere.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Sox were already open to offers for J.D. Martinez, and The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter links) hears from a National League evaluator that catcher Christian Vazquez could also be available.  The Sox seem to be “listening on veterans” in general, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweets.

Both Martinez and Vazquez are free agents after the year, so it would seem natural that the Red Sox would first look to move these shorter-term players with the deadline looming.  Other pending free agents include Jackie Bradley Jr. (whose mutual option for 2023 is likely to be declined), several injured players like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Enrique Hernandez, and Matt Strahm, plus the potential biggest trade chip of starter Nathan Eovaldi.

However, Speier writes that Boston “doesn’t seem motivated to deal Eovaldi, seeing him as part of any push to contend” into August, if the Red Sox can shake out of their slump.  That said, if the Luis Castillo trade now becomes “an accelerant to the rest of the pitching market,” it is worth wondering if the Sox might see an opportunity to move Eovaldi for a big return.

Of note, the Mets had a scout at last night’s Red Sox game, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Mets are known to be looking at catching and lineup upgrades, so Vazquez and Martinez would each make sense — Martinez in particular could help the Mets solve their season-long lack of production at the DH spot.  As to what New York could offer in return, Rosenthal notes that the Sox had a past interest in Dominic Smith, who would fit the team’s desire to land big leaguers back in trades (adding to the idea that Boston is still hoping to make a late playoff run).

A player on the cusp of the majors could also fit Boston’s model, with SNY’s Andy Martino suggesting that Mets infield prospect Mark Vientos could be of interest in trade talks.  In fact, Martino reports that the Mets and Red Sox once “seriously discussed” a deal that would’ve sent Vazquez to Queens in exchange for a prospect package that included Vientos.  The exact timing of these specific talks involving Vientos isn’t known, but the Mets reportedly looked into Vazquez prior to the 2020 trade deadline.

Vientos was a second-round pick for the Mets in the 2017 draft, and the 22-year-old has an impressive 21 home runs and a .263/.351/.516 slash line over 348 plate appearances at Triple-A Syracuse.  Baseball America ranks Vientos as the fourth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, praising his 60-grade power and throwing arm and noting that he has a chance to stick at third base, even if some evaluators think a move to first base will eventually be necessary.

For all of Vientos’ potential, he is generally seen as a step below the true upper tier of Mets prospects, so New York could perhaps be more apt to move him for immediate help (even for a rental like Martinez or Vazquez) given how aggressively the Mets are chasing a World Series title this year.  It can’t be ruled out that some kind of multi-player agreement could be struck, with both Martinez and Vazquez heading to Queens in exchange for a better prospect return.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Whitlock, Barnes, Strahm, Story

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The Red Sox dropped their third straight game against the Rays this evening, falling to 47-42 in the process. That puts them in a three-way tie with the Mariners and Blue Jays for the American League’s final two Wild Card spots (a game and a half back of Tampa Bay).

Despite the recent dip, Boston remains in the thick of playoff contention. They’ve spent the past few weeks down a handful of their top arms, but they’re expected to welcome a few pitchers back in the coming days. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic tweets that Nathan Eovaldi, out for a little more than a month with back inflammation, is expected to take the ball Friday night against the Yankees. He’s likely to be joined on the staff by Garrett Whitlock, whom McCaffrey adds is also slated for a likely weekend reinstatement. Whitlock has missed a similar amount of time battling hip inflammation.

Eovaldi will step back into a starting rotation that has subsequently seen Rich Hill and Michael Wacha also land on the IL. Whitlock, on the other hand, is expected to transition back into a multi-inning relief role. An elite late-game arm during his rookie season, the righty has started nine of his 13 appearances this year. Club personnel have suggested in recent weeks they prefer Whitlock as a high-leverage stopper who’s capable of working multiple innings out of the bullpen. He’ll team with closer Tanner Houck and breakout righty John Schreiber among the top options for skipper Alex Cora in the later innings.

Matt Barnes was formerly in that mix, but he’s had a nightmarish past 12 months. A deserved All-Star in 2021 after an excellent first half, the right-hander struggled enough down the stretch to be scratched from the initial postseason roster. That continued for the first couple months of this year, as Barnes posted a 7.94 ERA with career-worst strikeout and walk numbers before being placed on the injured list on May 31 with shoulder inflammation.

Boston transferred Barnes from the 15-day to the 60-day IL prior to tonight’s game. The move created the necessary 40-man roster spot to reinstate catcher Kevin Plawecki from the COVID-19 list. That rules Barnes out for 60 days from his initial placement, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until the end of the month. The 32-year-old figures to be ready for reinstatement around that point, as he’s made a pair of rehab appearances in complex ball over the past few days.

The Sox could also be facing an absence for Matt Strahm, who suffered a left wrist contusion after being struck by a comebacker last night. Chris Cotillo of MassLive writes that the southpaw is listed as day-to-day after x-rays came back negative. That’s also true of second baseman Trevor Story, who has a right hand contusion after being hit with a pitch in the same contest. Story told reporters he’s hopeful he can avoid the injured list, but that’s dependent on how he heals over the next few days.

Boston is surely hopeful Strahm will be able to dodge the IL as well, as he’s been arguably the club’s top left-handed bullpen arm. Through 27 2/3 innings, he owns a 3.58 ERA. Strahm has punched out a strong 27.1% of batters faced against a tidy 5.9% walk rate. He figures to remain in a high-leverage position for the remainder of the season, but the impending free agent is hoping to expand his role next year.

Strahm recently told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic he’s hoping to land a rotation opportunity on the open market. That’s not completely unfamiliar territory, as he was a starting pitching prospect throughout his minor league tenure. Strahm has made 25 starts in the big leagues, 16 of which came with the Padres in 2019.

The 30-year-old pointed out to Rosenthal that he has an atypically deep repertoire for a reliever, featuring five pitches. According to Statcast, he’s used each of his four-seam, slider, curveball and sinker at a greater than 10% clip this season. Strahm has also consistently avoided free passes in recent years, and he’s never been prone to dramatic platoon concerns. For his career, he’s been a bit more effective against right-handed hitters (.230/.296/.397) than lefties (.254/.326/.402). That trend has continued in 2022.

That combination could make Strahm a dark-horse rotation candidate for clubs this winter, similarly to the Angels giving Michael Lorenzen a rotation job after a few years of bullpen work in Cincinnati. In the interim, he figures to remain a key reliever (assuming health) as Boston jockeys for a playoff spot.

Red Sox Place Rich Hill On 15-Day Injured List

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TODAY: Hill’s recovery timeline is roughly 2-4 weeks, according to The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham (Twitter link).  An MRI did reveal “some tearing” in Hill’s ligament.

JULY 2: The Red Sox have placed Rich Hill on the 15-day injured list, as the left-hander is battling a left knee sprain.  Right-hander Phillips Valdez was called up from Triple-A to take Hill’s spot on the active roster.

Hill suffered the injury in the fifth inning of yesterday’s start against the Cubs, as he tried to tough it out through two more batters but eventually left the game.  Hill told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that he was waiting for the results of an MRI, but he compared the injury to the MCL problem that sidelined him for a month during the 2019 season.

The 42-year-old Hill has continued to post solid results in his 18th Major League season, with a 4.20 ERA/4.35 SIERA over 70 2/3 innings.  While his Statcast numbers and advanced metrics (including a 19.5% strikeout rate) aren’t anything to write home about, Hill has still been a reliable presence within a Boston rotation that has been lacking in stability.

At the moment, that rotation is down to just three pitchers, as the Sox have been hit by injuries.  Hill joins Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale (who has yet to pitch in 2022) and Garrett Whitlock on the IL, leaving Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, and Josh Winckowski as the only pitchers remaining in the starting five.  Connor Seabold is at Triple-A and figures to be recalled to make at least one spot start.

Among the injured names, Eovaldi threw a 35-pitch bullpen session today, though it isn’t yet known if the righty may need a rehab start.  Eovaldi has been on the IL since June 9 due to lower back inflammation.  Sale has another rehab outing slated for Wednesday, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne that Sale could potentially in line to make his 2022 season debut on July 11 when the Sox play the Rays.

As for Whitlock, he has been out since June 10 due to hip inflammation.  The righty has a bullpen session today and will have to make a rehab outing, but when he does return, Cora told Bradford and company that Whitlock will “pretty much likely” return to his old bullpen role, rather than as a starting pitcher.  Whitlock had a 4.15 ERA over 39 innings and nine starts this season, but with a theoretical surplus of starters when everyone is healthy, the Red Sox figure Whitlock can best help the team as a multi-inning reliever — Whitlock dominated batters in such a role in 2021.

Red Sox Place Nathan Eovaldi On 15-Day IL With Back Inflammation

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The Red Sox announced that starter Nathan Eovaldi has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 9, due to low back inflammation. Kutter Crawford has been recalled in a corresponding move and is starting tonight’s game.

This is the second blow to the Red Sox rotation in recent days as Garrett Whitlock also landed on the injured list two days ago. That leaves the rotation doubly handicapped for the next couple of weeks at least. After a rough start to the year, the club has charged their way back into the postseason picture with strong play of late, but now they will have to try to keep that up with diminished starting depth. As of right now, Crawford will join a rotation that also features Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Pivetta.

The club has an off-day tomorrow but then plays nine games in a row. After another off-day on June 23, they will begin a stretch of 23 consecutive games going into the All-Star break. If Whitlock and Eovaldi can return to health, they can rejoin the club in that latter stretch, though it seems the club’s rotation is going to be tested one way or another. Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold, Brayan Bello and Bryan Mata are all on the 40-man roster and are candidates to be called up to help, if needed.

The loss of Eovaldi will surely hurt, though, as he’s having another strong season. Through 68 1/3 innings, he has a 3.16 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 3.6% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate. He is set to reach free agency at the end of the year.

Eovaldi Won’t Discuss Extension During Season

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In an about-face from an earlier report, it appears one of the Red Sox’ best starters is destined to reach free agency at season’s end after all. Right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi was previously thought to be open to mid-season extension talks, but WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that Eovaldi has no desire to discuss contract matters during the season. Bradford adds that there is an expectation the righty’s camp will be in contact with the team after the 2022 campaign concludes.

It’s commonplace for players in walk years to halt extension talks after Opening Day— look no further than the division rival Yankees for recent evidence of that— though it registers as a mild surprise that Eovaldi’s self-imposed deadline has come and gone without much talking at all. Eovaldi is coming off the finest season of his career: a 182-inning showing of 3.75 ERA ball with elite command (4.6% walk rate), Cy Young votes, and a bevy of underlying metrics that indicate his performance was even better than his ERA lets on. With just one season to go before a healthy payday awaits the righty in free agency, however, it’s possible Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and the front office didn’t see the cost upside in writing up a new contract now.

Alternatively, the Red Sox front office may have simply been too preoccupied post-lockout trying to assemble a team with playoff aspirations. Though the club did kick the tires on extensions with franchise players Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, neither discussion got very far. The front office engaged sophomore pitcher Garrett Whitlock in extension talks, agreeing to an extension this past Sunday, though that’s a value play that was unlikely to be afforded in the veteran Eovaldi’s case. Due to either consistent high-end performance or financial upside it’s easy to see why extension talks were prioritized in all three of these cases over the one with a 32-year-old pitcher.

With Eovaldi all but certain to reach free agency, he’ll join a group teeming with upside (and for the Red Sox, potential replacements). Assuming some opt-outs are exercised and some player options are not, the 2022-23 free agent market stands to contain elite names like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. With more than $100MM worth of commitments likely headed off the books after the season, the Red Sox should have no shortage of options to explore this offseason, be it by re-upping some familiar faces or by inviting some new ones into the fold.

Eovaldi Willing To Negotiate In-Season; No Talks Yet

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In a few short hours, hard-throwing righty Nathan Eovaldi is set to make his third consecutive Opening Day start for the Red Sox, against the Yankees.  As Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic notes, Eovaldi is in rare company in doing so.  The 32-year-old Eovaldi told reporters yesterday that while the Red Sox did not approach him about a contract extension during spring training, he’d be willing to negotiate in-season.

Eovaldi’s current contract, a four-year, $68MM deal, was something of a new standard when it was struck with Dave Dombrowski 36 days after the team’s World Series parade.  A veteran of two Tommy John surgeries who had limited innings in the years prior, Eovaldi was still able to score a fourth year given the buzz around him at the time.

Eovaldi has mostly answered health and durability questions since then, and has also posted career-best strikeout and walk rates.  Still, he’ll pitch in the first year of a new contract at age 33.  He’d be justified seeking a new contract at least in the range of the $23.67-25MM AAV achieved by Marcus Stroman and Justin Verlander this winter.  The comparable Eovaldi will likely be pointing to age-wise: Hyun Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM deal with the Blue Jays, which also began with Ryu’s age-33 campaign.  The two bear little similarity otherwise, as Eovaldi’s 96.9 mile per hour average fastball velocity ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers in 2021.

Red Sox chief baseball office Chaim Bloom had avoided large and long-term contracts in his 29-month tenure with the club until signing Trevor Story for six years a few weeks ago.  If Eovaldi does insist on four years and the Red Sox let him reach the open market, he could be joined by free agent starters such as Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom, Zach Eflin, Clayton Kershaw, Sean Manaea, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Rodon, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Verlander.

Looking Ahead To The ALCS Rotations

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The Red Sox will go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the ALCS against the Astros, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who might be available for game three.

The uncertainty stems not from an uneven rotation, but from an uncertain group of relievers. Manager Alex Cora’s other available starters – Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta – will be available out in the bullpen for the start of the series, writes MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. That’s a strategy that worked for Cora in the ALDS. Pivetta proved crucial out of the pen against the Rays, a performance redolent of Eovaldi’s own in the 2018 World Series. Houck tossed seven innings of relief in the series as well, yielding just a pair of runs.

Whereas the Red Sox were able to patchwork their bullpen for a four-game series win against the Rays, they will likely need an even more dynamic approach to survive a seven-game tilt against the Astros’ potent offense. There is definite potential for this series to turn into a slugfest, not only because these two clubs boast the first and fifth ranked offenses in the game by runs scored in the regular season, but because the Astros are likely to be without Lance McCullers Jr. Results of the MRI on his sore forearm have yet to be revealed.

McCullers may not be viewed nationally as an ace, he’s been nothing short of stellar in the postseason. He owns a 2.83 ERA in 57 1/3 career postseason innings.

And while McCullers can boast the distinction of having started a game seven of the World Series back in 2017 (a win), he could be replaced by another righty who’s held that honor. Zack Greinke started game seven of the World Series in 2019 for Houston (a loss), and though he’s not likely to put up a full starter’s load, he could be used as an opener in McCullers’ stead, writes The Athletic’s Jack Kaplan. Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Jake Odorizzi are also candidates to pick up bulk innings if McCullers is unavailable.

What we do know is that Framber Valdez will take on Sale in game one, while Luis Garcia will go head-to-head with Eovaldi in game two, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Red Sox have the experience edge, but Valdez is no stranger to postseason success. Garcia, meanwhile, has at least gotten his feet wet in the playoffs: he had a scoreless two-inning outing in 2020 and 2 2/3 innings as the starter in game three versus the White Sox.

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