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Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos has exercised the opt-out clause in his contract and will reenter the free agent market, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Scott Boras client had two years and $34MM remaining on his contract but will seek a lengthier contract (and a heftier annual value) on the open market. The Reds can, and surely will, extend an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Castellanos — which he’s a lock to reject.

Nick Castellanos | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Castellanos, 30 in March, has been a near-lock to opt out of this contract for months now. While he decided to forgo the first opt-out provision in his deal last winter after a slumping through the pandemic-shortened season’s final weeks, he’s been one of the best hitters in the National League throughout the 2021 season. Had the microfracture in his wrist suffered back in late July proven to sideline him for a longer period or weigh down his production in the final two months, perhaps it’d have been another story, but Castellanos finished the season on a blistering tear at the plate.

On the whole, Castellanos batted .309/.362/.576 this season, complementing a career-high 34 home runs with 38 doubles and a triple en route to a stout 140 wRC+ on the season. That includes a .294/.335/.606 slash and 14 round-trippers in his final 176 plate appearances, which surely allayed any concern that the July wrist injury would linger and impact his production at the dish.

On the defensive end of the equation, Castellanos once again had his share of struggles. Virtually any defensive metric will paint him as below average in right field, and that’s been an issue for him dating back to his days as a third baseman in Detroit. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both pegged Castellanos at -7 in 2021 — which is actually an improvement over recent seasons — and he checked in with a -1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Some may be surprised to see that Castellanos actually has above-average sprint speed (65th percentile among MLB position players), but Statcast also puts him in just the seventh percentile in terms of his outfield jumps.

Overall, the lack of defensive value shouldn’t matter too much. Castellanos has been a consistently above-average hitter since a breakout 2016 campaign with the Tigers, and he enjoyed the best season of his career this past season. With the widely expected advent of the designated hitter in the National League, it’s possible that he’ll be more valuable than ever before in 2022. Full-time (or even semi-regular) DH work was never an option for Castellanos in Detroit thanks to the presence of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and he’s spent his two and a half seasons away from the Motor City in the National League. Even if he doesn’t immediately slide into full-time DH territory, Castellanos at the very least could see fewer innings in the outfield than he has in the past.

While it’s likely that Castellanos’ mind has been made up on this matter for some time, last night’s comments from Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall surely didn’t create any second thoughts. Krall didn’t outright say that the Reds are going to further slash payroll, but that was the overwhelmingly clear implication as the GM voiced a need to “align our payroll with our resources” and stressed the importance of “scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”

The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ $9.125MM salary on the Angels last offseason and surprisingly non-tendered Archie Bradley just three months after trading for him. Krall’s Wednesday comments — and, to a lesser extent, yesterday’s trade of stalwart catcher Tucker Barnhart — suggest that there’s more of the same in store this winter. In fairness to the Reds, they have a ready-made, offensively superior 2022 option at catcher in Tyler Stephenson, and Barnhart’s salary was steeper than most any team would pay for a backup catcher. How the Reds handle their $10MM club option on southpaw Wade Miley will be more telling.

Suffice it to say, it seems difficult to imagine the Reds pushing to re-sign Castellanos to a new contract that figures to include both a raise on his annual value and at least double the years he previously had remaining. Castellanos is arguably (although not definitively) the best hitter on the free-agent market this winter, and if the designated hitter indeed comes to the National League, he’ll have a vast market of teams bidding on his services. A contract of at least four years in length seems certain, and it’s quite possible that even with a qualifying offer in tow, bidding could push into the five-year range.

Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies

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Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.

There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.

Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.

Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.

Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.

That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.

As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.

Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.

That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.

Nick Castellanos Undecided About Opt-Out

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Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos says he has not made a decision about his ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract this winter. He recently discussed the matter with Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and said, “I don’t know what I want… There is so much information that I’m going to take in. I also have to take into mind the status of the game. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is now coming up. Once I take a step back from the season and have some days at home with my family and I’m able to just hang out with my wife, dog and kid, and we can just talk about what happened and get as much information as I can.”

At this point, it would be incredibly surprising if Castellanos decided not to opt out, given that he’s enjoying the best season of his career. Going into the last day of the campaign, the 29-year-old is currently hitting .308/.360/.574. That all adds up to a wRC+ of 139 and 4.0 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Both of those numbers are well beyond his previous best season of 2018, when his wRC+ was 129 and he was worth 2.9 fWAR. In 2019, he was almost as good, putting up a wRC+ of 122 and 2.8 fWAR.

After those two consecutive excellent campaigns, he signed with the Reds on a four-year, $64MM contract that contained opt-out provisions after both 2020 and 2021. He didn’t use that first opt-out opportunity as last year proved to be a slight down year for him, hitting just .225/.298/.486, wRC+ of 100. But when that shortened season is combined with the full campaign of 2021, his numbers are right in line with his previous production. His 2020-21 slash line is .283/.342/.548, wRC+ of 127.

The contract contains two more guaranteed years, with a salary of $16MM in each of 2022 and 2023. There’s also a $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for 2024, meaning that Castellanos, if he opts out, would be leaving two years and $34MM in guaranteed money on the table in exchange for the open market. If he does, the Reds would certainly extend him a qualifying offer, which will be in the range of $20MM.

Even with that taken into consideration, it seems likely Castellanos could find more money in free agency now as a 29-year-old than he would if he waited until the end of this contract, when he would be 31. For example, Marcell Ozuna has a similar bat-first outfielder profile. He turned down a qualifying offer after a mediocre 2019 season wherein he hit .241/328/.472 for a wRC+ of 110. He was still able to get himself a one-year, $18MM contract with the Braves for his age-29 season. Then he had a tremendous campaign in the shortened 2020 season and parlayed that into a four-year, $65MM contract to return to Atlanta.

However, as Castellanos himself points out, this coming offseason has the added uncertainty of the CBA negotiations. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and players’ union expires December 1st, which leaves the door open for all kinds of unknown paths for the offseason to take. Perhaps Castellanos would rather not go through all of that while temporarily unemployed, even if that means potentially limiting his overall earning power somewhat. As he himself put it, “You have to balance everything that you possibly can: How much you like where you’re playing, how close it is to home because I’m co-parenting, where the organization is in the spot to compete, and obviously, the financial part of it is important as well. It’s a balance of all of that.”

Marlins Notes: Free Agency, Castellanos, Alcantara

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9:54PM: Marlins CEO Derek Jeter backed up Ng’s comments, telling Bally Sports Florida that “For the first time really since we’ve been here as an ownership group, I expect to be pretty active” in the offseason.  Jeter also said the focus will be on adding hitting to augment “one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.”

7:35AM: The Marlins are wrapping up their 11th losing season in the past 12 years, with last year’s shortened-season playoff berth looking like an aberration. Miami’s young but promising pitching staff actually put together an above-average campaign, but they were let down by a lack of run support. The Marlins’ 615 runs scored is the third-lowest tally in the majors, with the team’s .241/.308/.387 slash line (excluding pitchers) checking in sixth from the bottom.

Bolstering the lineup will be an obvious priority for the club this offseason, and general manager Kim Ng acknowledged as much Friday afternoon in an appearance on the MLB Network. Most notably, Ng suggested ownership is prepared to support at least some measure of activity in free agency. “We are going to have some money to spend. … We feel that we are primed to do very well with the pitching set up as it is and with us being able to spend some money on bats this offseason.”

Miami typically runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, but their ledger is fairly open. Miguel Rojas’ $5.5MM option recently vested, and Anthony Bass’ $3MM salary is the only other guaranteed deal on the books. (Miami also owes the Yankees $3MM as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade). The Fish will have one of the game’s more significant arbitration classes, with Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández among those in line for raises. Even then, Miami should have a bit of spending capacity before closing in on this year’s estimated $63MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

Ng was unsurprisingly vague about precisely how much money the front office will have to play with, but they’re seemingly at least considering one of the more notable players likely to be on the market. On his Swings and Mishes podcast, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald suggested the Marlins could be in the market for South Florida native Nick Castellanos, who is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $32MM on his current deal with the Reds.

On the surface, the Marlins certainly seem a long shot to wind up landing Castellanos, as Mish acknowledges. The 29-year-old placed tenth on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings, with a four or five-year deal worth $20MM+ annually seemingly within the realm of possibility coming off a season in which he’s hitting .308/.362/.570 with 33 home runs. For a Miami team that balked at meeting Starling Marte’s reported four-year, $50MM asking price this summer, an earnest Castellanos pursuit would require a significant change in direction, although it’s at least theoretically possible ownership and the front office would be willing to make an exception for one of the younger potential free agents on the market.

While a Castellanos deal would register as a major surprise, the team agreeing to an extension with Alcantara seems entirely plausible. There’s reportedly growing optimism the two sides can get a long-term deal done this winter, and Mish adds that such talks could result in a more team-friendly arrangement than one might expect. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently broke down the factors that could go into an Alcantara extension, although Mish hears the first-time All-Star might be willing to settle for a bit less than his maximum earning power in order to lock in some financial security before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.

Reds Notes: Castellanos, Winker, Brach, Senzel

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Nick Castellanos figures to be one of the offseason’s most sought-after free agency commodities, as there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that the outfielder will opt out of the final two years and $34MM of his current Reds contract.  Such talks, however, are to be saved for the offseason, as Castellanos told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that he is only thinking about the Reds’ playoff race.

“Any speculation about free agency is nothing that’s come from my mouth,” Castellanos said.  “Right now, the only thing that’s next for me is focusing on winning here.  We have a chance to win here.  I’m not going to squander that opportunity by thinking about something that’s after the season.”

Castellanos entered today’s action with 26 homers and a .321/.377/.578 slash line over 478 plate appearances, a performance that earned the first All-Star nod of his career.  As he approaches his age-30 season, Castellanos looks well-positioned to land a much heftier deal than two years/$34MM, though playing for a winning team is his chief priority.  The Reds will have to come up with a big offer to keep Castellanos in the fold, but their case of providing Castellanos with a winning environment will be bolstered if they can reach the postseason for the second consecutive year.

A healthy Jesse Winker would greatly help Cincinnati’s chances of landing the second NL wild card berth, as the slugger has been on the 10-day injured list since August 16 due to an intercostal strain.  Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mike Petraglia) that Winker could start a minor league rehab assignment next weekend, “on the very positive, optimistic end of things.”  While there is clearly a lot of caution baked into Bell’s statement, he noted that Winker is “definitely progressing,” with an increased amount of baseball activity expected for this week.

Brad Brach, meanwhile, has already started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Louisville and is on pace to be back in Cincinnati’s bullpen sometime this week.  Brach went on the 10-day IL on August 8 due to a right shoulder impingement, after posting a 5.59 ERA over his first 29 innings in a Reds uniform.

The outlook is much less clear for Nick Senzel, however.  Bell told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters that Senzel recently had a second opinion about his surgically-repaired left knee, and “It seems that it’s going to take a while for him to get back and healthy.  I don’t know what that means for the rest of the season, but it didn’t sound like it was going to be any time real soon.”

Senzel underwent the arthroscopic procedure in late May and was supposed to miss only 4-6 weeks, though he was eventually moved to the 60-day IL.  The Reds activated him in mid-August, only to send Senzel back to the IL after fluid was discovered in his knee.  Senzel is currently rehabbing at the Reds’ Spring Training facility in Arizona, hoping to make a return and salvage something from what is unfortunately looking like a lost season.  The second overall pick of the 2016 draft has been hampered by multiple injuries during his brief career, limiting him to 163 games (and a .246/.308/.396 slash line) and 616 PA since the start of the 2019 season.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Reds Notes: Bryant, Turner, Castellanos, Sims

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The Reds had a fairly quiet deadline, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week that they pursued at least one outside-the-box upgrade to their lineup: Kris Bryant. Cincinnati viewed Bryant as a possible option in center field, but would only have been able to acquire him in the event that the Cubs paid the remaining $6.8MM on his contract between the deadline and the end of the season. The Reds also at least looked into Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, Rosenthal adds, though those talks never became particularly serious.

It stands to reason that if the Reds would’ve needed the Cubs to cover the remainder of Bryant’s contract, the same would’ve held true with the Nationals in a deal for Turner, who is earning $13MM in 2021 and was owed $4.5MM from July 31 through season’s end. He’ll also be in line for a considerable raise via arbitration this winter, and Turner would have naturally come with a higher cost of acquisition, from a prospect standpoint, due that extra year of control.

In the end, the Reds’ deadline brought them a trio relievers in Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson, all of whom were acquired at minimal prospect cost. They’ll deepen a Reds relief corps that ranks 28th in the Majors with a 5.34 ERA and currently has two of its best relievers, Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, on the injured list.

More out of Cincinnati…

  • The Reds could get slugger Nick Castellanos back in the lineup as soon as today, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 29-year-old Castellanos sustained a microfracture in his wrist when he was hit by a pitch three weeks ago. Initial X-rays didn’t catch the fracture, which led to Castellanos making some pinch-hit appearances while playing through considerable discomfort, but a CT scan eventually revealed the damage. Castellanos said back on July 21 that was unable to swing a bat, but Nightengale notes that Castellanos has taken batting practice three times this week. Manager David Bell said the club’s primary concern is getting Castellanos “back to full strength” so he doesn’t develop any poor mechanics as compensation for a lack of strength in the wrist. Castellanos, who can opt out of the final two years of his contract this offseason, has mashed at a .329/.383/.582 pace and clubbed 18 home runs through 368 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Injured righty Lucas Sims is progressing through a rehab assignment and made his fourth appearance with Triple-A Louisville last night. Bell told reporters recently that the plan was to build Sims up to pitch in back-to-back games (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com), which he’s yet to do. Still, the fact that he’s progressed through four rehab outings, seemingly without issue, suggests a return sooner than later for the righty, who’d been on a lights-out hot streak before getting clobbered for three runs without recording an out on June 22. Sims was placed on the injured list with an elbow sprain the next day. Sims has had three particularly tough outings in 2021, including that final appearance before going on the injured list, but has generally been solid otherwise. His 5.02 ERA is skewed by that handful of rough outings, but Sims carries vastly more encouraging marks in FIP (3.44), SIERA (3.20) and strikeout percentage (34.9). A healthy Sims would be a major boost to the Reds’ bullpen as they push to close a four-game gap in the Wild Card standings.

Reds Place Nick Castellanos On 10-Day IL, Release Jose De Leon

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The Reds announced Friday that right fielder Nick Castellanos has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 20. Castellanos revealed earlier this week that a CT scan found a microfracture in his right wrist. Cincinnati also placed lefty Amir Garrett on the paternity list. Right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and infielder Alejo Lopez were recalled from Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves. Meanwhile, right-hander Jose De Leon, who was designated for assignment earlier in the week, was released.

There’s never a good time for an injury to a team’s best hitter, but Castellanos’ absence will come at a particularly critical time for the Reds, who have seven straight games against divisional opponents leading up to next Friday’s trade deadline. The Reds have lost five of their first six games coming out of the All-Star break, including a sweep at the hands of the first-place Brewers. They’re currently six and a half games back of both the division lead and the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

Suffice it to say, a strong run for the Reds over the next week could embolden the front office to act as buyers in an effort to push for a postseason berth. A particularly poor showing could have the opposite effect. The Reds will now have to make this pivotal push without their most dangerous hitter; Castellanos, who leads the NL in batting average and doubles, is batting .329/.383/.582 through 368 plate appearances.

Cincinnati is also without slugger Mike Moustakas, infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and three of its best relievers: Tejay Antone, Lucas Sims and Michael Lorenzen. The fact that Garrett is being placed on paternity leave for the next three games against the Cardinals only further thins out the bullpen. The Reds are fortunate that neither the Cubs nor the Cardinals have been playing particularly well in their own right, however, so there’s still a chance for them to make up some ground and the final pre-deadline run.

As for De Leon, the 28-year-old former top prospect will now be free to sign with any club. The former Dodgers and Rays farmhand saw his development slowed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, and has yet to develop into the high-quality MLB arm that scouts envisioned in his younger days.

The Reds acquired De Leon from Tampa Bay in exchange for cash last year. Since the swap, he’s whiffed 43 of the 126 batters he’s faced in the Majors (34.1 percent), but he’s also been clobbered for 29 runs. Control has been a problem, as evidenced by a 17.6 percent walk rate and a pair of hit batters in that time.

Nick Castellanos Has Microfracture In Right Wrist

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July 22: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests Castellanos could be sidelined “for a couple weeks” due to the injury (Twitter link).

July 21: Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos revealed tonight in an Instagram Live appearance with Jomboy Media’s Chris Rose that a CT scan earlier today revealed a microfracture in his ailing right wrist (video link). Castellanos, who was hit by a pitch on the wrist last Friday, said he tried to play through the pain for a few games but will need to “take a couple days and see where I’m at.” He added that he’s unable to swing a bat at the moment.

It’s important to note that Castellanos didn’t provide any sort of outlook beyond taking a couple of days to rest and reevaluate. There’s no sense in speculating how much time he’ll miss beyond that initial down period, but even an absence of a few days is a tough blow for the Reds, given the current state of their roster and the context of the NL Central.

Cincinnati is already without slugger Mike Moustakas and is down three of its top relievers: Tejay Antone, Michael Lorenzen and Lucas Sims. The Reds have also dropped five of their first six games coming out of the All-Star break, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-leading Brewers.

The Reds are still very much alive in the postseason hunt, sitting six back of a Wild Card spot and six and a half games back of the Brewers in the division. But they’re also one of many teams whose deadline trajectory could be determined by their play over the next week, which magnifies the importance of even a brief absence from their best hitter.

Castellanos has been an absolute monster this season, batting .329/.383/.582 with 18 home runs, 29 doubles and a triple in 368 plate appearances. He’s vital to the team’s chances in the coming days, and if the club were to ultimately pivot and look to sell some veterans, he’d have been an in-demand player himself, given his ability to opt out of his contract at season’s end. Castellanos is in the second season of a four-year, $64MM contract with Cincinnati but can forgo the final two years and $34MM on that deal and return to the open market this winter.

However long Castellanos is down, the Reds can turn to Aristides Aquino and Shogo Akiyama to help cover in right field. They’re also sending the injured Nick Senzel out on a minor league rehab assignment this week, so he could be an option to help out before long. Manager David Bell told reporters today (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Senzel will see time both at center field and shortstop during his rehab stint.

Injury Updates: Betts, Castellanos, Kluber

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Mookie Betts left tonight’s game due to right hip irritation, according to the Dodgers.  After hitting a double in the seventh inning, Betts came up limping, and the injury looked to have occurred while he was rounding first base.  The hip problem ruined what had been a banner night for Betts, as that was his third double as part of a 4-for-4 performance.

Betts is now hitting .271/.375/.503 over 373 plate appearances, as he has been red-hot over the last month following something of a slow start (by his standards) to the 2021 season.  Betts’ semi-struggles early could have been due to some minor injuries, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that the hip problem has been one of Betts’ “nagging” issues.  Roberts plans to have Betts back in the lineup as early as Monday, when the Dodgers begin a key series with the arch-rival Giants.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Reds slugger Nick Castellanos left Friday night’s game after being hit in the right wrist by an Adrian Houser pitch, and Castellanos also wasn’t in tonight’s lineup.  X-rays were negative on Castellanos’ wrist, though it seems like he might get at least a day or two off for further examination.  Castellanos has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season, batting .330/.384/.583 with 18 home runs over 367 PA, and Cincinnati’s pennant race hopes would be badly stung if Castellanos had to be placed on the IL for any amount of time.
  • Corey Kluber might throw a bullpen session this coming Friday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).  A rotator cuff strain sidelined Kluber back on May 26, and while he was initially projected for an eight-week recovery period, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said last month that September might be Kluber’s likelier return date.  Given the long absence and the fact that Kluber missed almost all of the 2019-20 seasons due to injury, the veteran right-hander is likely to require multiple bullpen sessions and a minor league rehab assignment before he can get back on a big league mound, which could account for Cashman’s extended timeline.  That said, it is a good sign that Kluber is beginning to ramp up throwing activities now, so an August return might not be out of the question.  Over 53 1/3 innings prior to his rotator cuff strain, Kluber looked good in posting a 3.04 ERA, showing some flashes of his old Cy Young Award-winning form.
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