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Nick Castellanos

Reds Notes: Castellanos, Winker, Brach, Senzel

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Nick Castellanos figures to be one of the offseason’s most sought-after free agency commodities, as there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that the outfielder will opt out of the final two years and $34MM of his current Reds contract.  Such talks, however, are to be saved for the offseason, as Castellanos told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that he is only thinking about the Reds’ playoff race.

“Any speculation about free agency is nothing that’s come from my mouth,” Castellanos said.  “Right now, the only thing that’s next for me is focusing on winning here.  We have a chance to win here.  I’m not going to squander that opportunity by thinking about something that’s after the season.”

Castellanos entered today’s action with 26 homers and a .321/.377/.578 slash line over 478 plate appearances, a performance that earned the first All-Star nod of his career.  As he approaches his age-30 season, Castellanos looks well-positioned to land a much heftier deal than two years/$34MM, though playing for a winning team is his chief priority.  The Reds will have to come up with a big offer to keep Castellanos in the fold, but their case of providing Castellanos with a winning environment will be bolstered if they can reach the postseason for the second consecutive year.

A healthy Jesse Winker would greatly help Cincinnati’s chances of landing the second NL wild card berth, as the slugger has been on the 10-day injured list since August 16 due to an intercostal strain.  Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mike Petraglia) that Winker could start a minor league rehab assignment next weekend, “on the very positive, optimistic end of things.”  While there is clearly a lot of caution baked into Bell’s statement, he noted that Winker is “definitely progressing,” with an increased amount of baseball activity expected for this week.

Brad Brach, meanwhile, has already started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Louisville and is on pace to be back in Cincinnati’s bullpen sometime this week.  Brach went on the 10-day IL on August 8 due to a right shoulder impingement, after posting a 5.59 ERA over his first 29 innings in a Reds uniform.

The outlook is much less clear for Nick Senzel, however.  Bell told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters that Senzel recently had a second opinion about his surgically-repaired left knee, and “It seems that it’s going to take a while for him to get back and healthy.  I don’t know what that means for the rest of the season, but it didn’t sound like it was going to be any time real soon.”

Senzel underwent the arthroscopic procedure in late May and was supposed to miss only 4-6 weeks, though he was eventually moved to the 60-day IL.  The Reds activated him in mid-August, only to send Senzel back to the IL after fluid was discovered in his knee.  Senzel is currently rehabbing at the Reds’ Spring Training facility in Arizona, hoping to make a return and salvage something from what is unfortunately looking like a lost season.  The second overall pick of the 2016 draft has been hampered by multiple injuries during his brief career, limiting him to 163 games (and a .246/.308/.396 slash line) and 616 PA since the start of the 2019 season.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Reds Notes: Bryant, Turner, Castellanos, Sims

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The Reds had a fairly quiet deadline, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week that they pursued at least one outside-the-box upgrade to their lineup: Kris Bryant. Cincinnati viewed Bryant as a possible option in center field, but would only have been able to acquire him in the event that the Cubs paid the remaining $6.8MM on his contract between the deadline and the end of the season. The Reds also at least looked into Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, Rosenthal adds, though those talks never became particularly serious.

It stands to reason that if the Reds would’ve needed the Cubs to cover the remainder of Bryant’s contract, the same would’ve held true with the Nationals in a deal for Turner, who is earning $13MM in 2021 and was owed $4.5MM from July 31 through season’s end. He’ll also be in line for a considerable raise via arbitration this winter, and Turner would have naturally come with a higher cost of acquisition, from a prospect standpoint, due that extra year of control.

In the end, the Reds’ deadline brought them a trio relievers in Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson, all of whom were acquired at minimal prospect cost. They’ll deepen a Reds relief corps that ranks 28th in the Majors with a 5.34 ERA and currently has two of its best relievers, Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, on the injured list.

More out of Cincinnati…

  • The Reds could get slugger Nick Castellanos back in the lineup as soon as today, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 29-year-old Castellanos sustained a microfracture in his wrist when he was hit by a pitch three weeks ago. Initial X-rays didn’t catch the fracture, which led to Castellanos making some pinch-hit appearances while playing through considerable discomfort, but a CT scan eventually revealed the damage. Castellanos said back on July 21 that was unable to swing a bat, but Nightengale notes that Castellanos has taken batting practice three times this week. Manager David Bell said the club’s primary concern is getting Castellanos “back to full strength” so he doesn’t develop any poor mechanics as compensation for a lack of strength in the wrist. Castellanos, who can opt out of the final two years of his contract this offseason, has mashed at a .329/.383/.582 pace and clubbed 18 home runs through 368 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Injured righty Lucas Sims is progressing through a rehab assignment and made his fourth appearance with Triple-A Louisville last night. Bell told reporters recently that the plan was to build Sims up to pitch in back-to-back games (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com), which he’s yet to do. Still, the fact that he’s progressed through four rehab outings, seemingly without issue, suggests a return sooner than later for the righty, who’d been on a lights-out hot streak before getting clobbered for three runs without recording an out on June 22. Sims was placed on the injured list with an elbow sprain the next day. Sims has had three particularly tough outings in 2021, including that final appearance before going on the injured list, but has generally been solid otherwise. His 5.02 ERA is skewed by that handful of rough outings, but Sims carries vastly more encouraging marks in FIP (3.44), SIERA (3.20) and strikeout percentage (34.9). A healthy Sims would be a major boost to the Reds’ bullpen as they push to close a four-game gap in the Wild Card standings.

Reds Place Nick Castellanos On 10-Day IL, Release Jose De Leon

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The Reds announced Friday that right fielder Nick Castellanos has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 20. Castellanos revealed earlier this week that a CT scan found a microfracture in his right wrist. Cincinnati also placed lefty Amir Garrett on the paternity list. Right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and infielder Alejo Lopez were recalled from Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves. Meanwhile, right-hander Jose De Leon, who was designated for assignment earlier in the week, was released.

There’s never a good time for an injury to a team’s best hitter, but Castellanos’ absence will come at a particularly critical time for the Reds, who have seven straight games against divisional opponents leading up to next Friday’s trade deadline. The Reds have lost five of their first six games coming out of the All-Star break, including a sweep at the hands of the first-place Brewers. They’re currently six and a half games back of both the division lead and the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

Suffice it to say, a strong run for the Reds over the next week could embolden the front office to act as buyers in an effort to push for a postseason berth. A particularly poor showing could have the opposite effect. The Reds will now have to make this pivotal push without their most dangerous hitter; Castellanos, who leads the NL in batting average and doubles, is batting .329/.383/.582 through 368 plate appearances.

Cincinnati is also without slugger Mike Moustakas, infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and three of its best relievers: Tejay Antone, Lucas Sims and Michael Lorenzen. The fact that Garrett is being placed on paternity leave for the next three games against the Cardinals only further thins out the bullpen. The Reds are fortunate that neither the Cubs nor the Cardinals have been playing particularly well in their own right, however, so there’s still a chance for them to make up some ground and the final pre-deadline run.

As for De Leon, the 28-year-old former top prospect will now be free to sign with any club. The former Dodgers and Rays farmhand saw his development slowed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, and has yet to develop into the high-quality MLB arm that scouts envisioned in his younger days.

The Reds acquired De Leon from Tampa Bay in exchange for cash last year. Since the swap, he’s whiffed 43 of the 126 batters he’s faced in the Majors (34.1 percent), but he’s also been clobbered for 29 runs. Control has been a problem, as evidenced by a 17.6 percent walk rate and a pair of hit batters in that time.

Nick Castellanos Has Microfracture In Right Wrist

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July 22: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests Castellanos could be sidelined “for a couple weeks” due to the injury (Twitter link).

July 21: Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos revealed tonight in an Instagram Live appearance with Jomboy Media’s Chris Rose that a CT scan earlier today revealed a microfracture in his ailing right wrist (video link). Castellanos, who was hit by a pitch on the wrist last Friday, said he tried to play through the pain for a few games but will need to “take a couple days and see where I’m at.” He added that he’s unable to swing a bat at the moment.

It’s important to note that Castellanos didn’t provide any sort of outlook beyond taking a couple of days to rest and reevaluate. There’s no sense in speculating how much time he’ll miss beyond that initial down period, but even an absence of a few days is a tough blow for the Reds, given the current state of their roster and the context of the NL Central.

Cincinnati is already without slugger Mike Moustakas and is down three of its top relievers: Tejay Antone, Michael Lorenzen and Lucas Sims. The Reds have also dropped five of their first six games coming out of the All-Star break, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-leading Brewers.

The Reds are still very much alive in the postseason hunt, sitting six back of a Wild Card spot and six and a half games back of the Brewers in the division. But they’re also one of many teams whose deadline trajectory could be determined by their play over the next week, which magnifies the importance of even a brief absence from their best hitter.

Castellanos has been an absolute monster this season, batting .329/.383/.582 with 18 home runs, 29 doubles and a triple in 368 plate appearances. He’s vital to the team’s chances in the coming days, and if the club were to ultimately pivot and look to sell some veterans, he’d have been an in-demand player himself, given his ability to opt out of his contract at season’s end. Castellanos is in the second season of a four-year, $64MM contract with Cincinnati but can forgo the final two years and $34MM on that deal and return to the open market this winter.

However long Castellanos is down, the Reds can turn to Aristides Aquino and Shogo Akiyama to help cover in right field. They’re also sending the injured Nick Senzel out on a minor league rehab assignment this week, so he could be an option to help out before long. Manager David Bell told reporters today (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Senzel will see time both at center field and shortstop during his rehab stint.

Injury Updates: Betts, Castellanos, Kluber

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Mookie Betts left tonight’s game due to right hip irritation, according to the Dodgers.  After hitting a double in the seventh inning, Betts came up limping, and the injury looked to have occurred while he was rounding first base.  The hip problem ruined what had been a banner night for Betts, as that was his third double as part of a 4-for-4 performance.

Betts is now hitting .271/.375/.503 over 373 plate appearances, as he has been red-hot over the last month following something of a slow start (by his standards) to the 2021 season.  Betts’ semi-struggles early could have been due to some minor injuries, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that the hip problem has been one of Betts’ “nagging” issues.  Roberts plans to have Betts back in the lineup as early as Monday, when the Dodgers begin a key series with the arch-rival Giants.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Reds slugger Nick Castellanos left Friday night’s game after being hit in the right wrist by an Adrian Houser pitch, and Castellanos also wasn’t in tonight’s lineup.  X-rays were negative on Castellanos’ wrist, though it seems like he might get at least a day or two off for further examination.  Castellanos has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season, batting .330/.384/.583 with 18 home runs over 367 PA, and Cincinnati’s pennant race hopes would be badly stung if Castellanos had to be placed on the IL for any amount of time.
  • Corey Kluber might throw a bullpen session this coming Friday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).  A rotator cuff strain sidelined Kluber back on May 26, and while he was initially projected for an eight-week recovery period, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said last month that September might be Kluber’s likelier return date.  Given the long absence and the fact that Kluber missed almost all of the 2019-20 seasons due to injury, the veteran right-hander is likely to require multiple bullpen sessions and a minor league rehab assignment before he can get back on a big league mound, which could account for Cashman’s extended timeline.  That said, it is a good sign that Kluber is beginning to ramp up throwing activities now, so an August return might not be out of the question.  Over 53 1/3 innings prior to his rotator cuff strain, Kluber looked good in posting a 3.04 ERA, showing some flashes of his old Cy Young Award-winning form.

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

The Reds Could Be One Of The Deadline’s Most Interesting Teams

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We’re a little more than six weeks away from the trade deadline, and it appears July is going to be a month of difficult decisions for the Reds front office. Cincinnati sits at 32-31, third place in the NL Central. They’re slightly ahead of the Cardinals and five games back of the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the division lead. With the Giants surprisingly leading the star-studded Dodgers and Padres out west, the two wild card spots will be hard to come by in the National League.

By most measures, the Reds look like an average team. Their record is marginally above .500, while their -10 run differential is eighteenth among the league’s thirty clubs. FanGraphs’ rest of season projections have the Reds playing at an 80-82 pace; when coupled with their current record, they’d land right at 81-81 if they perform at that projected level from here on out.

Finishing .500 wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs, but the Reds also aren’t that far away from the postseason picture. The Cubs and Brewers have played well to this point but each has some obvious deficiencies on the roster (starting pitching for Chicago, the bottom of the lineup in Milwaukee). It doesn’t seem either team will run away with the division. Indeed, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 14.6% chance of making it to the postseason- unlikely, but not out of the question.

It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.

Cincinnati suffered through six consecutive losing seasons from 2014-19. The organization made a concerted effort to end that run late in the 2019 season, acquiring Trevor Bauer with an eye towards 2020 and signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos the following offseason. They did snap the streak of below-average records in last year’s shortened season, but it took a playoff expansion for them to get into the postseason, where they were swept by the Braves without scoring a run. (That marked the 25th consecutive season since the Reds last won a playoff series, the longest active draught in MLB).

They’ve already lost to Bauer to free agency, and Castellanos could soon depart himself. The 29-year-old is having a fantastic season, sitting on a .361/.416/.635 line with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances. Given that level of performance, it’d take a massive collapse or injury for him not to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM in guarantees on his contract. Castellanos opting out wouldn’t preclude the Reds from re-signing him, of course, but it’s not clear ownership would be willing to sign off on another significant outlay.

The Reds slashed payroll from $147MM in 2020 (prior to prorating) to $122MM this season on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. Next year, they’ll still be on the hook for substantial salaries to Joey Votto ($25MM), Moustakas ($16MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.286MM) and Sonny Gray ($10.867MM), per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before accounting for arbitration raises for a group including Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo. Unless ownership is willing to again increase spending on player payroll, it could be tough to commit to a raise for Castellanos.

If the Reds aren’t going to re-sign Castellanos, there’s a case they should field offers on him this summer. As the sport’s third-best qualified hitter (behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Winker), he’d draw no shortage of interest. Castellanos would almost certainly command a prospect return greater in value than the compensatory draft pick the Reds would receive if they allowed him to depart as a free agent after making a qualifying offer. Trading away one of the game’s top bats would be a tough sell to a fan base that has seen very little recent success, though, particularly if the Reds remain only a handful of games back in the division race.

Maybe the team’s performance will make the Reds direction obvious by July 30. If they continue to play at the level they have been, however, their front office will have some very difficult decisions to make.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Reds Activate Shogo Akiyama From Injured List, Shuffle Defensive Alignment

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve reinstated outfielder Shogo Akiyama from the 10-day injured list and put Joey Votto on the injured list in his place. Votto is expected to be out three to four weeks after fracturing his thumb in yesterday’s game. Akiyama has yet to play in 2021 due to a hamstring injury.

Perhaps of more interest to Reds fans will be the new-look defensive alignment the team is rolling out in the wake of Votto’s injury and Akiyama’s return. They’ll open this weekend’s series against the Indians with Mike Moustakas sliding over to first base in Votto’s place, while Nick Senzel moves from center field to second base. Eugenio Suarez is back at third base today, with Kyle Farmer stepping in for him at shortstop. Tyler Naquin is in Senzel’s customary center field, and Akiyama is getting a day in left while Jesse Winker serves as the designated hitter.

This particular alignment obviously won’t be the norm in Votto’s absence, as the Reds won’t have the DH in most of the games they play over the next month. But Moustakas sliding over to first base and Senzel moving from a crowded outfield into the infield could be frequently featured tactics. Second baseman Jonathan India has ample experience at third base, of course, so it’s possible we’ll see a frequent infield of India, Suarez, Senzel and Moustakas. Meanwhile, the Reds will rotate Winker, Naquin, Nick Castellanos and Akiyama in the outfield. Presumably, with the first three all hitting so well to begin the year, they’ll be viewed as the starting trio.

That said, the club surely still has hope of a better performance for Akiyama in is second season at the MLB level. The former Seibu Lions star signed a three-year, $21MM deal with Cincinnati in the 2019-20 offseason, and while he got on base at a nice clip last year, he struggled to hit for much average or power. The now-33-year-old Akiyama batted .245/.357/.297 with six doubles, a triple, no home runs and seven steals (10 attempts) through his first 183 big league plate appearances.

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