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Shohei Ohtani

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline

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As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?

Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon’s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.

2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop

While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.

3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.

Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.

“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”

It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.

A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.

The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.

How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.

The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.

Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.

Angels Not Discussing Shohei Ohtani Trades At Present

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With the offseason fast approaching, MLB front offices have begun exploratory talks about potential trades. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that teams calling the Angels about two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani are finding that the Halos have “no appetite” for discussing such scenarios at present.

It’s no surprise that plenty of teams would be interested in Ohtani, after he showed that his 2021 MVP season was no fluke. A year ago, he hit 46 home runs and threw 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to securing a unanimous MVP selection. This year, he took his pitching game to new heights, getting to 166 innings while lowering his ERA to 2.33. His offense took a bit of a dip, as he dropped to 34 homers in a similar number of plate appearances, but he cut his strikeout rate by more than 5% and had a better batting average.

That level of two-way production is perhaps unprecedented in all of baseball history, but certainly within the past century or so. Even Babe Ruth, who excelled at both hitting and pitching, didn’t really see those parts of his career overlap in the same way since he was a initially a pitcher who gradually took the mound less and hit more. Given Ohtani’s incredible and unique skillset, not to mention marketing opportunities, every team in baseball would surely love to have him on their roster.

In that case, it also stands to reason that the Angels would be loath to part with him. The fact that it’s even been a consideration is due to a few factors. First off, the team overall has been struggling of late, despite the contributions of both Ohtani and Mike Trout. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and haven’t made the postseason since 2014. Ohtani is also just a year away from free agency now and there haven’t any reports to suggest that there’s any momentum towards an extension. Furthermore, owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, casting a great deal of fog over the future of the franchise.

These factors put Ohtani in a situation somewhat analogous to that of Juan Soto, another superstar who once seemed untouchable in trades until he wasn’t. The circumstances weren’t exactly the same, since Soto still had 2.5 years of control at the time he was traded from the Nationals to the Padres. However, the team was unable to gain any traction in extension talks with Soto due to the uncertain nature of that franchise, which is also for sale. These comparisons have led to much speculation about Ohtani following a similar path, and the club even listened to offers at the most recent trade deadline. But even then, a trade seemed unlikely and all deliberations were reportedly kiboshed by Moreno.

With the hot stove about to warm up again in short order, the Ohtani rumors will surely follow, though it seems the club is not on the verge of anything. Martino’s report indicates that the Angels are rebuffing efforts to talk trade scenarios. Instead, it is believed they will try to explore an extension and, if unsuccessful, open up trade talks at next year’s deadline. We also can’t really rule out the scenario where the Angels are competitive next year and decide to keep him past the deadline. After all, they were neck-and-neck with the Astros through mid-May this year before a 14-game losing streak dealt them a gut punch that they never really recovered from. With a few improvements and some better luck next year, getting within striking distance of the expanded playoffs isn’t totally out of the question.

As for this offseason, it’s always possible that their approach could change as it progresses, for a number of reasons. If a sale of the club is finalized, perhaps the new owners will tip the scales one way or another. Maybe they will be interested in giving out a huge extension in order to keep a marquee player around, or perhaps they’d be prefer to try a rebuild and keep spending low for a while, as happened when the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group purchased the Marlins.

That is a great unknown which could potentially extend to the club’s other offseason efforts. As we saw with Soto, a murky franchise future can make a player reluctant to bind themselves into a situation they could later regret. Will that make it harder to get free agents to sign in Anaheim? If that is indeed the case, it will make it challenging for general manager Perry Minasian to improve a 73-win team in order to compete with the dominant Astros, ascendant Mariners and aggressive Rangers in the AL West.

Perhaps there are future scenarios where Ohtani becomes available. As we saw with Soto, a player is “untouchable” until everything aligns just right to make the unthinkable become reality. For now, it seems the Angels will kick any trade considerations down the road. But their hold on Ohtani lasts for just one more year, meaning something will have to give between now and then.

Ohtani Feels “Negative” About 2022

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Shohei Ohtani’s patience may be wearing thin with the Angels’ consistent lack of success. Los Angeles’s two-way superstar has repeatedly indicated his desire to win to the press, sparking a plethora of rumors regarding his intentions once he becomes a free agent. With only one season left until he is scheduled to hit the open market, every word that comes out of Ohtani’s mouth is going to be perceived as a potential clue as to his future plans.

On Tuesday, Ohtani arrived home in his Japan where he spoke with reporters, including Koji Ueda of the Associated Press. This time, he not only reiterated his commitment to winning, but explicitly stated his disappointment with the Angels’ inability to win. Speaking in Japanese, Ohtani said that “August and September in particular felt longer to me than last year” because the Angels “were not able to play as many good games as we would like — including 14 consecutive losses. So I have a rather negative impression of this season.”

These statements lamenting the final stretch of the Angels’ season come even as Ohtani closed his season on an absolute tear. From August on, the reigning AL MVP slashed .303/.363/.560, posted a wRC+ of 156, and logged a 1.62 ERA over 66 2/3 innings. It speaks volumes about Ohtani’s team-first mentality that he would describe August and September as specifically woeful, considering how fantastic his individual performance was during that timeframe.

The Angels finished 73-89 in 2022, 13 games back of Tampa Bay for the final wild card spot. In Ohtani’s five seasons, the Halos have never had a record at or above .500 and have ended each season at least ten games behind the AL West champion, despite frequently getting world-class production out of Ohtani and Mike Trout. They will also face difficulties in changing their fortunes going forward. The Angels’ farm system was ranked dead last in MLB.com’s 2022 midseason rankings and features only one top-100 prospect in catcher Logan O’Hoppe (#67). As such, they do not have many young assets with which they could flip into Major League-ready players via trade. Also, with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the club, it’s unknown how willing he will be to make major investments in the free agent market this winter.

With the club underperforming this year, the Angels considered Ohtani trades at the deadline but Moreno reportedly put the kibosh on that plan. Of course, if the team has a new owner, that has the potential to change things. If the team is having another disappointing season as next year’s deadline approaches, the trade rumors will only grow louder.

Like everything involving Ohtani, his trade market would no doubt be unprecedented and allow the Angels to add a large pile of young talent to their system. In fact, Ohtani has already demonstrated a capacity to break records on the market, having agreed to a $30 million contract in his final year of arbitration, the largest ever for an arbitration eligible player.

What is uncertain is which team would have the motivation and assets to unload a massive prospect haul for one guaranteed year, or just a few months, of Ohtani. Contending teams would be most likely to hedge a big chunk of their future to do so, but there are only so many contenders with sufficient farm systems to land him. The Dodgers, Guardians, and Rays are the only three playoff teams with farm systems ranked in the top 10 of MLB.com’s 2022 midseason farm system rankings. Additionally, the Mets, Cardinals, and Yankees all have at least four top-100 prospects that, if included in a theoretical deal, could help a deal come together.

Whether Ohtani stays an Angel or is traded somewhere else, speculation regarding his future is sure to dominate headlines in 2023.

Angels’ GM Perry Minasian On Ohtani, Rotation, Coaching Staff

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The Angels have already gotten a head start on some notable offseason business, both regarding the roster and its clubhouse leadership. In recent days, the Halos both avoided arbitration with the reigning AL MVP and finalized their managerial situation heading into 2023.

Over the weekend, the club and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani agreed to a $30MM salary for next season. The one-year pact avoided the possibility of what would’ve been the most fascinating arbitration case ever, with no clear precedent for a player of Ohtani’s talents. The sides won’t need to go anywhere near a hearing room, though, with the two-time All-Star instead agreeing to the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in big league history.

While the Halos are surely relieved to have Ohtani’s case settled, there are still plenty of questions about his long-term future in Orange County. The 2023 campaign is the final year in which he’s under club control, and Los Angeles heads into the winter coming off another disappointing season. General manager Perry Minasian met with reporters this afternoon (links via Sam Blum of the Athletic and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register), and while he didn’t offer any specifics about Ohtani’s situation, he unsurprisingly indicated he’d be thrilled to keep him beyond next season. “I think it’s Step 1,” Minasian said of avoiding arbitration. “Hopefully there are more steps down the road. … I’d love to have him here for a long time.”

That’s obviously not a firm declaration about Ohtani’s future, but it stands to reason Minasian and his staff will look to engage his reps at CAA at some point over the winter. They’ll surely receive calls from other teams inquiring about his availability in trade as well. The Halos obviously would’ve received ample interest in Ohtani at this past deadline, but owner Arte Moreno reportedly quashed any potential for a deal early in the process. Not long thereafter, Moreno announced he was looking into the possibility of selling the franchise.

Minasian told reporters he wasn’t aware of the status of the sales process, little surprise since he’s not involved in that decision. Asked whether it’d impact the club’s budget, the front office leader largely demurred. Minasian noted that ownership “still wants to put a good team on the field” and “is really competitive” but didn’t reveal any specifics about the franchise’s 2023 payroll outlook. The Halos opened the 2022 season with a player payroll north of $188MM, a franchise record figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They already have roughly $133MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before accounting for an arbitration class that includes Luis Rengifo, Jared Walsh and Super Two qualifiers Taylor Ward and Patrick Sandoval.

Working in the Halos favor, however, is that Minasian and his group aren’t faced with the losses of too many key contributors. Aside from Kurt Suzuki, who has already announced his retirement, the Halos stand to see Michael Lorenzen, Matt Duffy and Archie Bradley hit the open market. Lorenzen is the only member of that group who was relatively effective this year. Signed to a $6.75MM free agent deal, he pitched to a 4.24 ERA across 18 starts. Minasian suggested they could look to retain him via free agency, although he also noted the team wasn’t firmly committed to redeploying a six-man rotation again next season. The Halos have run with a six-man staff in recent years, in part to reduce the workload Ohtani has to shoulder on the mound. “I wouldn’t rule it out,” the GM said of a five-man rotation. “But if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. There’s a balance there. Is the risk worth the reward?”

Minasian also addressed the coaching staff, noting that the club is still evaluating whether to make changes in that area. Phil Nevin will be back as skipper after signing a one-year deal yesterday, but it’s to be determined whether his staff will remain in place. Asked about the short term of Nevin’s first permanent managerial contract, Minasian said the club will “(see) where it goes next year and (go) from there, but my hope and my expectation is that this is a long-term thing.” Of course, the long-term future of the organization will be determined in large part by the direction any incoming ownership group plans to take. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the franchise sale price could run as high as $2.5 billion, although the identities of the groups currently in talks with Moreno and his staff haven’t been publicly reported.

Angels, Shohei Ohtani Avoid Arbitration With One-Year, $30MM Contract For 2023

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The Angels and Shohei Ohtani have avoided perhaps the most unique arbitration case in baseball history by agreeing to a one-year, $30MM pact for the 2023 season.  Ohtani is still scheduled to reach free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Ohtani is represented by CAA Sports.

The two-way star becomes the 20th player in baseball to receive a $30MM average annual value on a contract, and that $30MM figure also establishes two other notable thresholds.  Ohtani will now receive the largest salary ever for an arbitration-eligible player, and he also gets the biggest year-to-year raise for an arb-eligible player, after he earned $5.5MM this season.  That $5.5MM salary was established in an earlier extension that avoided arbitration, as Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a two-year, $8.5MM contract in February 2021 that covered the first two of his three arb-eligible years.

At the time of that deal, Ohtani has pitched only 1 2/3 total innings over the 2019-20 seasons, due to a Tommy John surgery and then a flexor strain.  He was also coming off a mediocre year at the plate, hitting only .190/.291/.366 over 175 plate appearances during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  Though Ohtani was hardly the only player to struggle under the unusual circumstances of the 2020 campaign, there was speculation that his 2018 rookie season might have been his peak, and that Ohtani would be better served by choosing either hitting or pitching.

Instead, Ohtani bounced back with two of the most extraordinary seasons in baseball history.  Since Opening Day 2021, Ohtani has hit .267/.366/.560 with 80 home runs over 1282 plate appearances, while also posting a 2.72 ERA and an array of dazzling secondary metrics over 291 1/3 innings.  After winning AL MVP honors in 2021, it looks as if Ohtani will be at worst a second-place finisher in this year’s MVP race (due to Aaron Judge’s all-timer of a season), and he’ll also earn a good chunk of votes in the AL Cy Young Award race.

With this in mind, it can certainly be argued that $30MM is still a bargain from the Angels’ perspective, considering that Ohtani would earn hefty salaries if he was “only” an All-Star hitter or “only” an All-Star pitcher.  It would’ve been fascinating to see what arbitration figures the Angels and Ohtani’s camp would’ve submitted in this unprecedented scenario, but this agreement sidesteps that possibility.

Los Angeles now has three players earning at least $30MM in 2023, as Ohtani joins Mike Trout ($35.45MM) and Anthony Rendon ($38MM).  In practical terms, it doesn’t change much for the Angels’ payroll situation, as the team naturally figured it would be paying Ohtani some type of gigantic salary in his final arb-eligible year.  In pure dollars and cents, it doesn’t actually represent much different from the Angels’ 2022 payroll, as the since-released Justin Upton was earning $28MM in the final year of his contract with the club.

Ohtani’s future beyond 2023 remains a mystery, as he’ll be heading into free agency presumably still in his prime both on the mound and at the plate.  Though Ohtani turns 29 in July, his two-way ability might still land him the biggest contract in baseball history, topping the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts in his extension with the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season.

In reaching an agreement with Ohtani now, the Angels front office gets one big question mark settled heading into what might be one of the most uncertain offseasons in franchise history.  Owner Arte Moreno is looking into a possible sale, and with this situation lingering over the organization, it isn’t clear how aggressive GM Perry Minasian will be allowed to be in upgrading the roster.  The Halos are struggling through their seventh consecutive losing season, so while a teardown isn’t out of the question, it is also possible Moreno might order a final push to try and return to the postseason one final time under his ownership.

Until there’s more clarity with the potential sale, it is hard to gauge what will happen with Ohtani in Anaheim.  Given that Ohtani has already expressed his displeasure with losing, it seems hard to believe that he would agree to an extension unless he was satisfied that the team was heading in the right direction — even if a new owner does take over within 7-8 months, their influence might not be apparent in the short window of time before Ohtani can test the open market.  A new owner might bring a new willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold, and thus it wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle in adding a massive Ohtani deal worth more than $40MM (at least) in AAV on top of the long-term Trout and Rendon contracts.

A trade also can’t be ruled out, though it seems like the least likely scenario considering that Moreno vetoed any possibility that Ohtani would be swapped prior to the last trade deadline.  As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, establishing Ohtani’s 2023 price tag early gives any interested trade partners more time to plan offers, yet not having Ohtani on the roster could also impact purchasing interest for any potential new owners.  From a practical baseball sense, it is also hard to gauge what exactly an Ohtani trade would look like, considering his elite two-way talent but also just one remaining year of control.

The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

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Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

—

A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

Who will win the American League Cy Young Award?
Justin Verlander 36.10% (657 votes)
Dylan Cease 25.93% (472 votes)
Alek Manoah 13.74% (250 votes)
Shane McClanahan 9.73% (177 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 9.34% (170 votes)
Framber Valdez 2.53% (46 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 1.70% (31 votes)
Kevin Gausman 0.93% (17 votes)
Total Votes: 1,820

Latest On Angels’ Potential Sale

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The Angels appear set for a major shake-up, as owner Arte Moreno announced Tuesday he’d retained financial advisors to explore a potential sale of the franchise. The news came as a surprise publicly, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Moreno had planned to look into selling the team for a while before making the announcement. One source tells Rosenthal a sale has been under consideration for upwards of two months.

Precisely when Moreno settled upon this course of action isn’t clear, but it appears to have been at some point in June at the latest. As Rosenthal points out, that provides some interesting context for the Halos’ approach to the trade deadline — specifically with the organization’s handling of reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. Reports emerged in late July the Angels were listening to trade offers on Ohtani, but any speculation was quickly dashed when the Halos took the two-way star off the market by August 1.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported shortly after the deadline that Moreno forbade the front office from exploring Ohtani trades at a time when fellow superstar Mike Trout was on the injured list. Buster Olney of ESPN relayed a similar sentiment this week, writing that the club’s baseball operations department viewed this summer as the ideal time to extract a maximum return for Ohtani, who is arbitration-eligible for a final time before reaching free agency after 2023. Moreno, however, stepped in and indicated he wouldn’t approve a trade.

In the aftermath of the announcement that Moreno was exploring a sale, there was plenty of speculation among rival fanbases that an Ohtani trade next offseason could be more viable than it was this summer. Yet Rosenthal feels that’s unlikely, reasoning that Moreno’s refusal to deal Ohtani at the deadline while already planning to explore a sale of the franchise seems unlikely to change over the winter.

It isn’t known how long the sales process will take, but it could extend well into the offseason. For reference, the Lerner family announced shortly after Opening Day they were exploring a sale of the Nationals. Earlier this week, Barry Svrulga, Ben Strauss and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post suggested that process could be wrapped up by November, around seven months after the team’s announcement a sale was under consideration. If the Angels’ process follows a similar timetable, it’d push near Opening Day 2023. Each situation is individual, of course, and one can’t know precisely at this stage how long the possible sale of the Anaheim franchise might take. Yet the Nationals situation serves as an example of the complexity of a deal of this magnitude, and it seems likely Moreno will retain ownership at least for the early stages of the offseason.

Ohtani’s future is just one of many key decisions the Angels face as the franchise prepares for a possible monumental change. The club will have to settle upon a manager, with Phil Nevin currently holding the role on an interim basis after the team dismissed Joe Maddon in early June. General manager Perry Minasian and his staff will also be tasked with trying to overcome what’s set to be a seventh straight losing season and presumably make another push for contention in 2023. How much financial flexibility will be at the front office’s disposal remains to be seen.

The Halos entered this season with a franchise-record payroll north of $188MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Jason Martinez of Roster Recourse estimates the club has a bit above $103MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season. That doesn’t include what’ll surely be a massive raise for Ohtani over this season’s $5.5MM salary, and the team will also see first baseman Jared Walsh reach arbitration for the first time. The Halos aren’t facing many significant free agent departures, but they could arguably stand to use external help at shortstop, left field, catcher and in both the rotation and the bullpen.

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