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Shohei Ohtani

Angels Not Planning To Move Ohtani

By TC Zencka | July 23, 2022 at 12:48pm CDT

Although teams are calling the Angels about the availability of two-way standout Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have no plans to move their international superstar, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

The Angels are again mired in a disappointing season, one that has already resulted in the firing of manager Joe Maddon. At 39-54, the Halos are 15 games under .500 and more than 20 games behind the Astros for the division lead. They’re more than 10 games behind the last wild card spot. It certainly would seem like another lost season for Los Angeles.

But holding onto Ohtani is a reasonable position to take, even considering the current state of the club. Ohtani is an All-Star for the second consecutive season, and he’s again producing on both sides of the ball. At the plate, Ohtani is slashing .256/.347/.482 over 386 plate appearances. He also owns a 2.80 ERA/2.41 FIP across 93 1/3 innings. All together, Ohtani could very well be looking at another MVP season.

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Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani

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MLB Announces 2022 All-Star Starters

By Darragh McDonald | July 8, 2022 at 10:30pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2022 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, July 19. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

  • Catcher: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (2nd selection)
  • Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros (8th selection)
  • Third base: Rafael Devers, Red Sox (2nd selection)
  • Shortstop: Tim Anderson, White Sox (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (4th selection)
  • Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (10th selection)
  • Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (5th selection)
  • Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd selection)

National League

  • Catcher: Willson Contreras, Cubs (3rd selection)
  • First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (8th selection)
  • Second base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins (1st selection)
  • Third base: Manny Machado, Padres (6th selection)
  • Shortstop: Trea Turner, Dodgers (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (3rd selection)
  • Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers (6th selection)
  • Outfield: Joc Pederson, Giants (2nd selection)
  • Designated hitter: Bryce Harper, Phillies (7th selection)
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2022 All-Star Game Aaron Judge Alejandro Kirk Bryce Harper Giancarlo Stanton Jazz Chisholm Joc Pederson Jose Altuve Manny Machado Mike Trout Mookie Betts Paul Goldschmidt Rafael Devers Ronald Acuna Shohei Ohtani Tim Anderson Trea Turner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Willson Contreras

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Latest On Angels’ Extension Talks With Ohtani

By Sean Bavazzano | June 15, 2022 at 7:31pm CDT

Back in January it was reported that the Angels and two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani had yet to engage in long-term extension talks. In his latest piece, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Angels had “informal discussions” with Ohtani’s representatives late in spring training that may hint at what the hybrid player’s next contract looks like. Specifically, Ohtani’s camp indicated that any contract would have to award the reigning MVP a record average salary, currently held by Max Scherzer with an annual $43.3MM salary courtesy of the Mets.

Rosenthal notes that the Angels were, at the time, reluctant to offer a market value deal of length to Ohtani at the presumed apex of his value. The team may very well be running out of time to lock up another superstar, but he remains under control another year via arbitration and was always unlikely to accept a discounted extension on the heels of an 8.1fWAR season. It can certainly be reasoned then that the franchise is looking for Ohtani to come down from his great 2021 heights to make the hit of his next contract slightly less monumental.

Through 61 games this season the 27-year-old is off his MVP-pace from the year prior, but it would be disingenuous to suggest he’s hampered his value much with 13 home runs and a solid .260/.336/.481 (133 OPS+) batting line. Even his rotation work remains decidedly above average, with strong peripherals and an elite strikeout rate of 31.7% suggesting his 3.64 ERA is unluckily high.

In this regard, the Angels find themselves with a catch-22 on their hands. The more Ohtani performs, as he continues to do, the greater the team’s chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. As Ohtani’s two-way excellence continues, however, the team is faced with a greater price tag that they may be hesitant to pay given their already top-heavy payroll.

For context, any contract that buys out Ohtani’s first free agent year will begin in 2024 when the Angels will have nearly $92MM devoted to just three players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Raisel Iglesias. When factoring in guaranteed salaries to both catcher Max Stassi and infielder David Fletcher that 2024 figure jumps to nearly $105MM, more than half of this year’s $190MM team payroll (per RosterResource). That leaves room for an eventual Ohtani contract, of course, though at a projected rate of $44MM+ it wouldn’t leave a ton of room to round out the rest of the roster.

Plenty of time remains until Ohtani secures an unfathomable payday, be it with the Halos or a competing club. Until then, the Angels and Ohtani have an unprecedented arbitration case to look forward to next offseason. And before that point, both parties will look to upend this season’ 29-34 record that can only serve to jeopardize a longer-term union between player and club.

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Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani

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AL West Notes: Ohtani, Angels, Syndergaard, Altuve, Carpenter, Story, Giles

By Mark Polishuk | May 1, 2022 at 9:34pm CDT

Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani was removed from today’s game due to right groin tightness, as he suffered the injury while trying to beat out a double play during the seventh inning.  Jack Mayfield pinch-hit for Ohtani in the ninth inning, when the DH spot was next up at the plate.  Ohtani told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other reporters that it was something of a precautionary removal and that he intended to play tomorrow, though Angels manager Joe Maddon took a more wait-and-see approach.

Naturally, any injury to Ohtani impacts the Angels on two fronts, as he is also scheduled to start Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox.  With Los Angeles optioning Jose Suarez to Triple-A today, it could provide an opportunity for Jaime Barria or Kenny Rosenberg to pick up a spot in the Halos’ six-man rotation.

The Angels at least know who will be starting Tuesday’s series opener, as Maddon said that Noah Syndergaard will take the ball.  Syndergaard was scratched from a planned start last Friday due to illness, but it appears as though the right-hander is back in good health, and he tossed a bullpen session today with no issues.

More from around the AL West…

  • Jose Altuve is on pace to be activated from the 10-day injured list on Monday when the Astros begin a home series against the Mariners, Astros GM James Click told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome).  A left hamstring strain sent Altuve to the IL on April 20, though the strain wasn’t thought to be serious at the time, and Altuve will indeed return only slightly beyond the minimum 10 days.  The seven-time All-Star has yet to get rolling this season, hitting only .167/.268/.250 over his first 41 plate appearances.
  • Matt Carpenter was one of several veterans signed to minor league contracts who had the ability to opt out of their deals today, but Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that Carpenter will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the Rangers organization.  It isn’t surprising that Carpenter (a Texas native) elected to stay put, as he already passed on another opt-out opportunity when the Rangers sent him to the minors at the end of Spring Training, and Carpenter said anyway that he needed more time to ramp up and adjust to his overhauled swing.  The former Cardinals standout has performed decently well at Triple-A Round Rock, hitting .239/.327/.457 with two home runs in 52 PA.
  • Both the Rangers and Mariners were linked to Trevor Story’s market prior to the lockout, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both AL West rivals offered Story a contract similar to the six-year, $140MM deal that the free agent eventually signed with the Red Sox in March.  At that earlier date in the offseason, Story’s reps countered with a much larger contract demands, leading both Texas and Seattle to go in different directions with their lineup plans.  The Rangers instead splurged on both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Mariners (who intended to use Story as a second baseman) acquired Adam Frazier from the Padres, and then added Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the position player side in another trade with the Reds following the lockout.  Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that Story has changed his representation since signing with Boston, and is now a client of the Wasserman Agency.
  • Mariners reliever Ken Giles is still three or four weeks away from playing in any games, though he has started a throwing program, The Athletic’s Corey Brock reports.  Giles underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020 and was aiming to return by Opening Day, though a strained tendon in his right middle finger set Giles back significantly during Spring Training.  As such, the veteran right-hander has had to more or less restart his ramp-up activities.  Still, Giles is on pace to be an option for the M’s bullpen come June, and he could be an impact addition if Giles is able to recapture some of his past form, as the righty has at times looked like one of the best relievers in baseball during his seven MLB seasons.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Notes Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Jose Altuve Jose Suarez Ken Giles Matt Carpenter Noah Syndergaard Shohei Ohtani Trevor Story

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MLB, MLBPA Reach Tentative Agreement To Reimplement Ghost Runner In 2022

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have reached a tentative agreement to bring the extra-innings ghost runner back for the 2022 season, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Additionally, they have agreed to expand active rosters from 26 to 28 players this season until May 1. The league’s 30 owners need to vote next week to officially ratify the conditions, but Sherman writes that only a simple majority is needed and the provisions aren’t expected to have any issue passing.

Neither development is especially surprising, as reports emerged a couple weeks ago that both were under consideration. The lockout lingered into the second week of March, compressing the Spring Training schedule by two weeks even with the start of the regular season pushed back eight days. The concern is that the shortened ramp-up period might not afford enough time for players to get ready to shoulder a typical regular season workload. By adding a couple players in the early going and limiting the potential for marathon games, the league and union will give managers some extra flexibility in keeping playing time in check.

Sherman adds there won’t be any restrictions on the number of pitchers teams can carry in April. MLB is instituting its 13-pitcher limit this year. That rule change was originally slated to go into effect in 2020, but MLB scrapped it in each of the past two seasons due to concerns about overworking arms while teams were facing the possibility of COVID-19 outbreaks on their rosters. That’ll eventually be a challenge for clubs, but they’ll have some extra leeway on the mound for the first couple weeks of the season.

The return of the extra-innings runner figures to be the more notable development for fans. It was first implemented in 2020 as part of the pandemic protocols. There’s little doubt the rule has indeed served its purpose of preventing marathon games. There has only been one MLB game that exceeded thirteen innings in either of the past two seasons; there were 23 such games in 2019 alone. Nevertheless, the rule has predictably proven divisive among fans, many of whom perceive the placement of a free runner on second base to start extras as gimmicky.

Sherman writes that the ghost-runner rule has only been approved for 2022, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the league and union revisit it again down the line. The other big on-field pandemic rules change — the seven-inning doubleheader — will not return this year.

One rule that will be in effect permanently is a modification to the designated hitter, albeit one that only seems likely to affect one player. If a team uses the same player as both that day’s starting pitcher and as their DH, he can remain in the game as a hitter even after being removed from the mound. That’s obviously a provision designed to allow the Angels to keep Shohei Ohtani in the lineup deep into games he starts.

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Collective Bargaining Agreement Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Shohei Ohtani

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Ohtani: “No (Extension) Talks Yet” With Angels

By Anthony Franco | January 31, 2022 at 7:40pm CDT

Shohei Ohtani is coming off an MVP-winning season, the kind of showing Angels fans dreamed of when he chose to sign in Anaheim during his highly-publicized posting process over the 2017-18 offseason. It’s widely expected the Angels will try to work out a long-term deal with the two-way star, but those discussions didn’t get underway prior to the lockout.

Ohtani tells Sam Blum of the Athletic (via an interpreter) the team and his representatives at CAA Baseball have had “no talks yet” regarding an extension. Last October, the 27-year-old expressed openness to a long-term deal. He didn’t go into detail regarding the chances of eventually signing an extension when speaking with Blum, instead noting that he’s “in the second year of my two-year deal coming up this season” and “just trying to complete that last year of the two-year contract.”

As Ohtani noted, he signed a two-year contract last February that guaranteed him a total of $8.5MM to avoid arbitration through 2022. He’ll make $5.5MM this year and is scheduled to go through arbitration a final time before reaching free agency two seasons from now. Ohtani would be entering his age-29 season during his trip to the open market. That’s relatively young for a free agent, setting him up for a megadeal if he stays healthy and continues to perform at an elite level.

The parameters of a potential Ohtani extension are essentially impossible to predict. There are, of course, no contractual precedents for players with his skillset. Ohtani’s coming off a .257/.372/.592 showing with 46 home runs and 26 stolen bases. That overall offensive output checked in 52 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, the fifth-highest mark among 135 batters with 500 or more plate appearances. While he didn’t perform particularly well in the abbreviated 2020 season, Ohtani has a wRC+ of 120 or better in his other three big league campaigns.

In addition to that middle-of-the-order offense, Ohtani has flashed at least middle-of-the-rotation upside. He’s worked 183 2/3 innings across 35 MLB starts, posting a 3.53 ERA/3.75 SIERA with a very strong 29.2% strikeout rate, albeit with an elevated 9.7% walk percentage. The majority of those frames came last season, when he put up a 3.18 ERA in 23 starts. He averaged north of 95 MPH on his fastball, backed up by an elite swing-and-miss secondary offering in his high-80s split.

Given Ohtani’s unique ability to produce at a high-end level on both sides of the ball, it stands to reason the Angels would love to keep him in the fold beyond the next couple seasons. The team does already have a pair of long-term investments in star position players on the books. Mike Trout is slated to make a bit north of $37MM annually through 2030, while Anthony Rendon will earn over $38MM per season from 2024 through 2026 under the terms of his backloaded deal. The Angels also owe Raisel Iglesias $16MM in both 2024 and 2025, while David Fletcher will make at least $14MM combined between 2024 and 2025.

Between those commitments, the Angels already have around $100MM guaranteed in the first two seasons of what are currently slated to be Ohtani’s free agent years. Anaheim set a franchise record with an outlay in the $182MM range to start last season. An Ohtani extension would probably require owner Arte Moreno to stretch his longer-term payrolls a bit further if the front office is to have the requisite payroll flexibility to supplement a Trout – Ohtani – Rendon core group.

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Shohei Ohtani

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Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani Win MVP Awards

By Anthony Franco | November 18, 2021 at 7:03pm CDT

Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani have been named the respective league Most Valuable Players, according to announcements from the Baseball Writers Association of America. It’s the second MVP of Harper’s career, while Ohtani’s a first-time winner.

Harper led all hitters (minimum 500 plate appearances) by measure of wRC+ this past season. His .309/.429/.615 line checked in 70 percentage points above the league average. The Phillies star ranked sixth in the National League with 35 home runs and paced the league with 42 doubles, leading to an NL-best slugging percentage. Harper also drew plenty of walks, as he does on an annual basis, leading to the second-highest on-base percentage in the Senior Circuit.

The six-time All-Star was especially great down the stretch. Over the season’s second half, Harper mashed at a .338/.476/.713 clip, helping him earn his second career Silver Slugger award as well. Harper didn’t rate particularly well defensively, but that sheer offensive excellence was enough to take the crown. This kind of season is no doubt what the Phils had in mind when signing him to a record-breaking $330MM free agent contract. He’ll remain in Philly through 2031, and the organization and fanbase can hope for a few more seasons of this ilk from the likely future Hall of Famer.

Harper appeared on all 30 ballots, garnering 17 first-place votes. That was enough to edge out the Nationals’ Juan Soto and the Padres’ Fernando Tatís Jr., the other two NL finalists. Soto picked up six first-place votes after posting a .313/.465/.534 line and pacing the league in on-base percentage. Tatís bopped a league-best 42 homers while playing a good chunk of the season at shortstop, a performance that earned him two first-place votes. Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford and Nationals/Dodgers infielder Trea Turner were the other players to receive first-place nods, enough to finish in fourth and fifth place, respectively.

Voting in the American League was far more resounding, as Ohtani claimed the award unanimously. It’s easy to understand why, as he’s coming off a season unlike any we’ve seen in recent memory. As a hitter, the 27-year-old mashed at a .257/.372/.592 clip. He popped 46 home runs, a mark that trailed only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Pérez in the AL. Only Guerrero had a higher slugging percentage (again minimum 500 PA), while Guerrero, Yuli Gurriel, Yoan Moncada and Aaron Judge were the group to top Ohtani in on-base percentage.

That work at the plate alone would have been enough to get Ohtani on MVP ballots, but his additional contributions on the mound made him an easy choice for voters. After injuries limited his pitching workload over his first two big league seasons, Ohtani stayed mostly healthy in 2021 and logged a career-best 130 1/3 frames. He pitched to a 3.18 ERA that was ninth-lowest among the 64 AL hurlers with 100+ innings. Ohtani’s 29.3% strikeout rate checked in sixth among that same group, while he placed fifth in strikeout/walk rate differential (21 percentage points) and sixth in SIERA (3.61). He’s controllable through 2023 via arbitration, although it stands to reason the Angels would love to work out an extension to keep the two-way star in the fold for the long-term.

While Ohtani’s historic showing took the suspense out of the result, that’s not to say there weren’t worthy challengers. Guerrero led the AL in both on-base and slugging en route to a second-place finish. 29 voters placed Guerrero second on their ballot, with the only other second-place nod going to Pérez. Guerrero’s teammate with the Blue Jays, Marcus Semien, easily finished in third place, followed by Judge and Carlos Correa.

Full balloting results available.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper Shohei Ohtani

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MLB Awards Shohei Ohtani Historic Achievement Award

By Anthony Franco | October 26, 2021 at 6:59pm CDT

Before tonight’s opening World Series contest, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced that he was awarding Angels star Shohei Ohtani an Historic Achievement Award. Ohtani becomes the 16th recipient of the award, which was first given to Cal Ripken Jr. in 1998 in honor of his consecutive games streak.

The Historic Achievement Award is granted at the commissioner’s discretion to individuals and teams who made an historically significant impact on the game. Ohtani is the first honoree of Manfred’s tenure as commissioner; the most recent recipients had been Derek Jeter and Vin Scully, who were recognized in 2014 by then-commissioner Bud Selig.

Ohtani’s two-way promise has been lauded for years, but 2021 was the first time he was able to stay healthy and put together a great season on both sides of the ball. Over 639 plate appearances, the 27-year-old hit .257/.372/.592 and blasted 46 home runs, the third-highest mark leaguewide. He also stole 26 bases and hit an MLB-best eight triples. Only Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto and Fernando Tatís Jr. topped Ohtani as overall hitters by measure of wRC+.

Ohtani also worked 130 1/3 innings on the mound, pitching to a 3.18 ERA while striking out 156 batters. He was selected to the All-Star Game as both a pitcher and position player, and manager Kevin Cash allowed him to start the contest for the American League in both roles. Unsurprisingly, Ohtani’s two-way exploits made him one of the game’s most popular players. According to MLB.com, he had the ninth highest-selling jersey of the 2021 season.

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Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani

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Angels’ GM Perry Minasian On Pitching Staff, Infield Plans

By Anthony Franco | October 4, 2021 at 10:28pm CDT

The Angels wrapped up the 2021 campaign with a disappointing 77-85 record. That marked the club’s sixth straight below-average season, and their fourth consecutive year finishing in fourth place in the AL West.

General manager Perry Minasian met with the media (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) this afternoon to lay out some preliminary plans for the upcoming winter. Unsurprisingly, Minasian acknowledged that pitching will be the club’s top priority. That’s familiar territory for the Angels, who have long had an enviable collection of star position players but haven’t found much success on the mound in recent years. That was again the case in 2021, as Los Angeles hurlers finished the season 22nd in ERA (4.68) and 18th in SIERA (4.22).

The starting rotation, in particular, has long been an issue and that continued to be a weakness this season. While Angels’ starters posted middle-of-the-road strikeout and walk numbers, their collective 4.78 ERA was among the league’s ten worst. Some of the fault surely lies with a defense that finished near the bottom of the league by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and opponents’ batting average on balls in play. Nevertheless, it’s clear the rotation could’ve been better, and the impending free agencies of Alex Cobb and Dylan Bundy only thin that group further.

Cobb has already gone on record about his interest in returning, and it stands to reason the front office could have some interest in extending that relationship. Otherwise, the Angels’ in-house starting staff includes Shohei Ohtani (controllable for two more seasons but who himself expressed openness to an extension), Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez, Jaime Barria, Griffin Canning and rookie Reid Detmers. That’s not a group devoid of talent, but it’s lacking in track record of consistent production and/or durability. Minasian suggested Ohtani, Suarez and Sandoval had locked down season-opening rotation roles but noted that the remaining two or three spots are yet to be determined.

The bullpen figures to be an area of need as well. Excluding Suarez, four Angels’ relievers tossed 20+ innings with an ERA below 4.00. Austin Warren and Mike Mayers will return, but Steve Cishek and closer Raisel Iglesias are soon-to-be free agents, with Iglesias likely in line to land the biggest deal of any reliever this winter. Retaining Iglesias or adding some additional veteran stability to the later innings figures to be almost as high on the priority list as bolstering the rotation will be.

That’s made all the more true by the late-season injury suffered by rookie right-hander Chris Rodriguez, who broke into the big leagues with a 3.64 ERA across 29 2/3 frames on the strength of a massive 54.7% ground-ball rate. Rodriguez, who dealt with a serious of health issues during his time in the minors, landed on the injured list in mid-August due to a lat issue. He didn’t return this year, and Minasian told reporters today that it’s unknown if he’ll be ready for Spring Training as his rehab has progressed rather slowly.

There’s less heavy lifting to do on the position player side, since the impending returns of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will immediately go a long ways towards reinvigorating the offense. The middle infield stands as the biggest spot to address, as José Iglesias struggled on both sides of the ball, leading to his release last month. Minasian called shortstop an area of need, expressing some openness to moving second baseman David Fletcher to the left side of the infield if necessary.

Fletcher himself finished the season in a terrible slump, ending the year with a .262/.297/.324 line over 665 plate appearances. His solid prior track record will earn him another shot to put those struggles behind him, but it seems reasonable to expect the Angels to at least kick the tires on the star-studded top of the free agent shortstop class. Landing an external addition at short would allow the club to pencil Fletcher back in at a position where he’s already a plus defender and to concentrate on a bounceback at the plate.

There are some clear holes to plug on this roster, with the impact potential of external additions obviously dependent upon payroll. Minasian said he’s not yet discussed the payroll outlook for next season with owner Arte Moreno. The Angels entered 2021 with a franchise-record player budget in the $182MM range, estimates Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The club already has almost $120MM in guaranteed commitments on the books next season, but the arbitration class is one of the league’s smallest. Only Mayers and Max Stassi figure to land substantial raises, and even those players will probably land in the $3-5MM range.

That’d leave $50+MM for Minasian and company if Moreno is willing to match this year’s spending levels. It would set the stage for a very interesting winter in Orange County, with plenty of opportunity for Minasian and his staff to make meaningful upgrades to a roster that has a few significant deficiencies that need to be addressed.

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Los Angeles Angels Chris Rodriguez David Fletcher Jose Suarez Patrick Sandoval Shohei Ohtani

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Shohei Ohtani Open To Discussing Long-Term Deal With Angels

By Steve Adams | October 4, 2021 at 11:33am CDT

Shohei Ohtani created plenty of speculation when he recently revealed that there’d been no extension talks with the Angels front office and added that above all else, his priority moving forward is “to win.” With the Angels now officially posting a losing record in six straight seasons, fans and pundits alike have wondered about Ohtani’s future in Anaheim. The likely American League MVP emphasized following the conclusion of the Halos’ 2021 season, however, that he’d carry an open mind into any discussions regarding a long-term extension (link via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

“I think I would, of course, talk to them with feelings of openness,” Ohtani said via his interpreter. “Regardless of whether that leads to anything, I individually want to have a solid offseason to make sure we can win next year.”

The matter of Ohtani’s contract for the 2022 season is already settled. Back in February, he signed a two-year, $8.5MM contract that covered his first two arbitration seasons (2021 and 2022) — a decision for the Angels surely have to be thankful in retrospect. Ohtani’s outstanding season on both sides of the ball would have surely led to a much larger salary in arbitration than the $5.5MM he’ll receive next year under that two-year pact.

It was a historic season for Ohtani, who tallied 639 plate appearances as a hitter and also logged 130 1/3 innings on the mound. His 46 home runs at the plate were third in all of baseball, trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Perez. Ohtani hit .257/.372/.592 with 46 long balls, 26 doubles, eight triples and 26 steals. He scored 103 runs, plated another 100 and posted the fourth-best walk rate among qualified hitters.

On the mound, his 29.3 percent strikeout rate on the mound was tied for 12th among the 96 pitchers who tossed at least 120 innings, and his 3.18 ERA ranked 22nd. Ohtani’s 8.3 percent walk rate was a half-percent higher than the average starting pitcher but his huge strikeout rate and above-average ground-ball rate (45 percent) helped to make him one of the more effective starting pitchers in the game on a per-inning basis.

If Ohtani proves at all capable of approximating that production in 2022, he’d set himself up for perhaps the most fascinating and complex arbitration case in Major League history. An extension, of course, would preclude that headache for the Angels — but his brilliant 2021 season has also made any potential negotiations as complicated as an arbitration hearing would be.

Ohtani has rather clearly cemented himself as one of the game’s greatest pure talents. He’s two years from free agency, so the first couple seasons of a theoretical extension wouldn’t pay him full market value (although a new deal could theoretically begin next season and replace his $5.5MM salary in favor of a larger sum). Beyond that, the question is just how highly the would-be free agent seasons might be priced. Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout, and Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole received the largest average annual salaries in MLB history, $36MM per season, when signing their respective deals. (While Trout’s contract was technically restructured as a 12-year, $426.5MM deal, that includes the two years and $66.5MM he was already guaranteed at the time of his extension, which paid him $360MM in new money over 10 years — hence the $36MM AAV figure.)

Free-agent seasons that are bought out this far in advance are typically (but not always) discounted to some extent, but the inherent difficulty in assigning a value to Ohtani’s free-agent campaigns is multi-faceted. Not only is he two years from the market, he’s also only had one full, healthy season on the mound. It’s clear that he’s of top-of-the-rotation caliber from a pure talent perspective, but he pitched just 53 1/3 innings combined in his first three MLB seasons (thanks largely to Tommy John surgery).

That lack of durability is an obvious red flag and strike against him. At the same time, if the Angels wait another year to determine whether Ohtani can replicate or exceed that workload on the mound, he’ll only further drive up his price tag — both by proving his durability and moving closer to free agency. There’s also no precedent for a player with this skill set, so his representatives at CAA could argue that any valuations based on comparisons to other players and/or contracts are generally irrelevant.

Stepping back a bit, the Angels’ entire payroll needs to be considered when looking at the prospect of retaining Ohtani on what would presumably be a massive commitment. The Angels will have Justin Upton’s contract come off the books following the 2022 season — which is no small sum given next year’s $28MM salary.

However, the Halos are already paying Trout a $35.45MM salary every year from 2022-30, and they’ll also pay Anthony Rendon $36MM in 2022 before paying him $38MM annually from 2023-26 under his backloaded $245MM contract. Trout and Rendon, like Ohtani, have proven to be MVP-caliber talents at their best. Trout has three MVPs and arguably ought to have more, and Rendon has a pair of top-five finishes, including a third-place finish as recently as 2019. We can’t know precisely what value would be placed on Ohtani’s free-agent seasons — the first of which would be his age-29 campaign — but that an extension would likely mean paying out more than $100MM annually to just three players, at least from 2024-26.

The Angels are a large-market club, but they also haven’t traditionally spent at the same level as other big-market teams like the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. This year’s $182MM Opening Day payroll was the largest in franchise history, and owner Arte Moreno hasn’t given his front office the green-light on exceeding the luxury tax threshold since way back in 2004 — his first full season as owner after purchasing the club in May 2003.

There’s no way of knowing just yet what will happen to the luxury tax system in the future, as it’ll be a hotly contested topic during ongoing collective bargaining talks between the league and the players association. Whatever alterations do come about will be key factors for Moreno and second-year general manager Perry Minasian to consider in negotiations with Ohtani’s camp, as paying Trout, Rendon and Ohtani on long-term arrangements would make filling out a roster behind that trio all the more difficult.

All of that comes before even considering other needs in the rotation and the absence of proven, cost-controlled starters on a team that has perennial rotation issues. The Angels have a handful of interesting young arms (e.g. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria), but they’ll likely need to bring in some veteran arms as well. There’s also the matter of a lack of a long-term solution at shortstop and the looming, star-studded crop of free-agent shortstops to consider. It all makes for a fascinating long-term outlook in Anaheim, as should be expected with a talent as unique as Ohtani and a big-market club as starved for a postseason berth as the Angels, who haven’t appeared in a playoff game since 2014.

The original version of this post cited an Associated Press translation of Ohtani’s quote, which indicated he is “very open” to discussing an extension. Our post has since been updated to reflect what we are told is a more accurate but slightly different translation of his response, from the Los Angeles Times, that he would talk to the Angels “with feelings of openness.”

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Shohei Ohtani

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