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Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?

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A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.

Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
    • .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
    • 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
  • Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
    • .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
    • 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate

—

  • Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
    • .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
    • 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
  • Trevor Story, SS, Rockies:  Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
    • .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
    • 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate

—

  • Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
    • .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
    • 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
    • .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
    • 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate

—

  • Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
    • .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
    • 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
    • .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
    • 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate

Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Who do you WANT to win the Home Run Derby?
Shohei Ohtani 28.93% (4,206 votes)
Pete Alonso 24.09% (3,503 votes)
Trey Mancini 15.40% (2,240 votes)
Joey Gallo 12.48% (1,815 votes)
Juan Soto 5.55% (807 votes)
Matt Olson 5.42% (788 votes)
Trevor Story 4.36% (634 votes)
Salvador Perez 3.77% (548 votes)
Total Votes: 14,541

Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Who do you think WILL win the Home Run Derby?
Pete Alonso 30.77% (3,288 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 28.25% (3,019 votes)
Joey Gallo 20.29% (2,168 votes)
Matt Olson 5.67% (606 votes)
Juan Soto 4.67% (499 votes)
Trey Mancini 4.29% (458 votes)
Trevor Story 3.80% (406 votes)
Salvador Perez 2.26% (242 votes)
Total Votes: 10,686

Home Run Derby Field Finalized

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The eight-man field is set for the 2021 Home Run Derby. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, Orioles first baseman Trey Mancini, Royals catcher Salvador Pérez, Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo will compete in the event.

Ohtani has been perhaps baseball’s biggest story in 2021. The two-way star has a league-best thirty-one home runs and looks like the early favorite to win the AL MVP award. Alonso, who won the most recent Derby in 2019, will be looking to defend his title. The right-handed slugger has popped fifteen homers this year. Story figures to be the fan favorite with All-Star festivities taking place in Denver. The 28-year-old has hit 11 longballs this season. It’ll be an emotional sight to see Mancini on such a big stage. He missed all of last season battling colon cancer but made it back this year and has popped fifteen homers.

Pérez has been the game’s most powerful catcher. He leads all backstops with twenty homers and he’ll get the starting nod behind the plate for the American League in the All-Star game. Olson has also hit twenty dingers this year and will represent the playoff-contending A’s in the All-Star game. Gallo, who’ll join Ohtani, Pérez and Olson on the AL All-Star team, has been on an absolute tear over the last month, bringing his season total in homers up to twenty-three. Soto only has ten home runs this season, but he’s been one of the game’s best hitters since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.

The Home Run derby will take place at Denver’s Coors Field on Monday, July 12.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported Gallo’s inclusion.

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

Health Notes: Ohtani, Mondesi, Graterol, Mikolas, D-backs,

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Right-hander Shohei Ohtani was supposed to take the mound for the Angels in their game against the Rays on Monday, but the team scratched him in favor of lefty Jose Quintana because of elbow soreness. Ohtani swas hit by pitch on Sunday, and manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that he’s now “too sore to throw.” However, there’s still a chance he’ll start sometime during this four-game set versus Tampa Bay. Even if that doesn’t happen, Ohtani feels well enough to hit, so the DH will continue making an offensive impact. Ohtani has only made three starts and pitched 13 2/3 innings this season, but he has overcome control problems (13 walks) to log a 3.29 ERA with 23 strikeouts and a 62.5 percent groundball percentage. He has complemented his pitching performance with a power-packed .270/.318/.620 line, eight homers and six stolen bases over 107 plate appearances as a hitter.

  • Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi will start doing pregame work with the team this week and could begin a rehab assignment next week, per general manager Dayton Moore (via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The Royals have gone all season without Mondesi, the reigning stolen base champion who strained his right oblique during the spring. Despite Mondesi’s absence, the Royals entered Monday with a surprising 16-10 record – the best mark in the majors. Nicky Lopez has filled in capably for Mondesi during KC’s fast start.
  • Dodgers reliever Brusdar Graterol will undergo an MRI on his ailing right forearm Tuesday, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The team placed Graterol on the IL last Thursday with forearm tightness – a rather ominous-sounding injury for someone who underwent Tommy John surgery in the past – and the 22-year-old hasn’t resumed throwing since then, according to Castillo. The Dodgers lost another of their promising young hurlers, righty starter Dustin May, to the dreaded TJ diagnosis on Monday.
  • Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas will make a rehab start with Triple-A Memphis this week, and he’ll “likely” go four innings, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat writes. Mikolas hasn’t pitched in the majors this year because of shoulder problems, after he sat out all of last season on account of flexor tendon surgery. His most recent MLB outing occurred Oct. 11, 2019.
  • The Diamondbacks have reinstated first baseman Christian Walker and outfielder Tim Locastro from the IL, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. The club optioned outfielder Nick Heath and infielder Andrew Young in corresponding moves. The Diamondbacks have been without Walker since April 12 because of a right oblique strain, while Locastro suffered a dislocated finger April 17. Walker had a rough go early on with a .179/.250/.282 line and one homer in 44 trips to the plate. Locastro, meantime, took 58 PA last month and batted .269/.345/.327 with an HR and three steals.

Los Angeles Notes: Ohtani, Watson, Gonsolin, Price, Gray, Morrow

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Shohei Ohtani’s scheduled start against the Rays on Monday is now up in the air after he was hit on the right elbow by a pitch during his first plate appearances in today’s 2-0 Angels loss to the Mariners.  Ohtani stayed in the lineup for the remainder of the game, and in fact stole two bases after being plunked.  Angels manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) that Ohtani “was sore, but he kept telling me he was feeling better game-in-progress.”

All options seem to be on the table for Monday, whether that means Ohtani is scratched from the lineup altogether, or perhaps only pitches or only acts as the designated hitter, or if he feels fine and fills both roles as originally planned.  Surely the Halos aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with such an important player, particularly one enjoying as special of a season as Ohtani’s ongoing campaign.  He is hitting .263/.311/.606 with eight homers (and six steals from seven chances, to boot) over 106 plate appearances, while also posting a 3.29 ERA/4.52 SIERA and 37.1% strikeout rate, albeit with a very troubling 21% walk rate.

More from both the Angels and Dodgers….

  • Tony Watson was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to April 29) due to a left calf strain, the Angels announced prior to today’s game.  Right-hander James Hoyt was called up from the alternate training site to take Watson’s roster spot.  After opting out of a minor league deal with the Phillies near the end of Spring Training, Watson inked a new minors deal with the Angels just prior to Opening Day, and the veteran has posted some excellent bottom-line results over 8 1/3 innings.  Watson has an 1.08 ERA, though with the help of a 100% strand rate and an .182 BABIP.  While some regression is inevitable, Watson still has a 2.57 SIERA, and he has often outperformed his advanced metrics during his 11-year career.
  • With Dustin May now the latest Dodgers pitcher to hit the injured list, the team is in the rare position of being somewhat short on pitching depth.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register) that the Dodgers are considering a four-man rotation, since a fifth starter won’t be required until May 18 thanks to three upcoming off-days on the schedule.  Tony Gonsolin is currently being stretched out to work as a starting pitcher when he returns from his own IL stint due to shoulder inflammation, and Roberts said Gonsolin is roughly three-to-four weeks away from being activated.
  • David Price hit the IL with a right hamstring strain on April 26, and Roberts estimated that the southpaw could beat (or at least be on the low end of) his projected four-to-six week recovery timeline.  Since Gonsolin is the pick as May’s replacement, Price will resume his previous bullpen role when he returns to action.  Roberts also noted that Josiah Gray, the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, isn’t currently a candidate for a promotion to fill the rotation job.
  • Brandon Morrow stopped his throwing program due to arm problems, Roberts said, and the veteran right-hander’s comeback attempt looks uncertain.  “B-Mo just hasn’t responded to treatment,” Roberts said.  “It’s been a tough road for B-Mo and his family, so I don’t know if it’s even gonna be a play this year.  Obviously, I’m hopeful.”  Morrow signed a minors deal with the Dodgers in December, hoping to return to the majors for the first time since back and elbow injuries halted his career in 2018.

Pitching Notes: Corbin, Odorizzi, Tepera, Ohtani

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Patrick Corbin was the subject of some trade discussions this winter, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that the Nationals had talks with other teams about the veteran left-hander.  It isn’t clear whether the Nats initiated these talks or if other teams were exploring Corbin’s availability, or if any of these discussions were anything beyond standard offseason “checking-in” types of conversations.  It could be that teams were trying to buy low on Corbin in the wake of a down year that saw him post a 4.66 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and a career-low 90.2 mph average fastball velocity over 65 2/3 innings.  Between 2020’s shortened season and Corbin’s stint on the COVID-related injury list this April, it makes it hard to gauge whether or not Corbin’s struggles last year and in the early days of the 2021 season are truly due to a decline.

Trading Corbin would have been quite the pivot for a Washington team that planned on contending in 2021.  It’s possible the Nats could have looked to add Major League-ready pieces rather than prospects in any Corbin deal, or perhaps moved the southpaw for a comparably high-priced proven veteran.  Corbin is owed $106MM from 2021-24 in the four remaining seasons of his original six-year, $140MM free agent deal from the 2018-19 offseason.  The topic of a Corbin trade could be worth revisiting of the Nationals don’t get into the playoff race and become sellers at the trade deadline, though Corbin’s contract would seemingly make him one of the less-likely Nats players to be dealt, considering how D.C. has so many rental players available.

More pitching-related items…

  • Jake Odorizzi is being examined today after having to leave yesterday’s game after just five pitches.  More will be known when tests are complete, but Astros GM James Click gave an optimistic view on the injury during an interview on the team’s pregame radio show today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).  “The initial read yesterday was more of a muscle cramp in the pronator muscle, which is not the flexor mass,” Click said.
  • The Cubs announced that Ryan Tepera’s three-game suspension was reduced to two games on appeal, and the right-hander will begin serving his suspension today.  Tepera’s suspension was issued earlier this month after an incident that saw Tepera throw behind the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff.
  • We’ll conclude this edition of Pitching Notes with an item on…an outfielder, sort of.  Shohei Ohtani played an inning of left field, moving from DH to the grass at the end of the Angels’ 16-2 loss to the Astros yesterday.  As Angels manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com’s Daniel Guerrero and other reporters, the move was made “out of necessity” due to a short-handed bench and outfielder Anthony Bemboom getting called to the mound for an inning of mop-up duty.  There has often been speculation that Ohtani could be deployed in the outfield as a way of keeping him in the lineup and opening up Anaheim’s DH spot, but Maddon stressed that using Ohtani as a position player is “not part of the plans” going forward.  Maddon did note, however, that Ohtani “is such a great athlete…I’m telling you he could do it.”

West Notes: Ohtani, Posey, Owings, Long

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Shohei Ohtani has been scheduled to start Tuesday’s game against the Rangers, the Angels announced today.  The two-way star has pitched just once this season due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, but he threw three bullpen sessions this week of increasing pitch volume, topping out at a 30-pitch bullpen on Saturday.

With no further issues in the wake of these sessions, Ohtani will look to build on an inconsistent first start that saw him allow one earned run over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox on April 4, but with five walks and two hits allowed.  While Ohtani has been kept off the mound, the blister hasn’t slowed down his red-hot bat, as Ohtani is hitting .333/.370/.706 with four home runs in 54 plate appearances.

More from both the AL West and NL West..

  • It isn’t yet known if Buster Posey will require an injured list placement, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler said the catcher will be re-evaluated on Monday.  Speaking to reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly) before and after today’s game with the Marlins, Kapler said pre-game that there was some swelling in Posey’s left elbow, but during the post-game noted that the swelling had lessened.  Posey left Saturday’s game in the seventh inning after being hit by a pitch, and x-rays were negative on the catcher’s elbow.
  • The Rockies moved Chris Owings from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list earlier today, as Owings will have to undergo surgery on his left thumb.  Manager Bud Black told The Athletic’s Nick Groke and other reporters that Owings will need at least eight weeks of recovery time.  Owings’ injury was initially diagnosed as a left thumb sprain when he was first placed on the IL last week, but the veteran utilityman is now going to end up missing a big chunk of the 2021 campaign.
  • After undergoing surgery last September to fix a stress fracture in his right shin, Mariners utilityman Shed Long continues to make some progress on the recovery trail.  Manager Scott Servais updated reporters (including Jen Mueller of Root Sports) on Long, saying that he is still having difficulty making changes of direction on his shin and making stops when running, though Long is able to run and sprint without any problems.  It isn’t yet known when Long might be ready to make his 2021 debut.

Pitching Notes: Ohtani, Rangers, Wood, Carpenter

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Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani won’t make his previously scheduled start this Sunday because of a blister, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.  It’s an issue that has troubled Ohtani since the end of March, but the two-way standout was able to make his first start against the year on April 4, and he has been a regular in the Angels’ lineup at designated hitter. Manager Joe Maddon said Friday (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that Ohtani can throw with a Band-Aid on, but he’ll need to do so without it before returning to the Angels’ rotation. Ohtani tossed 4 2/3 innings of three-run (one earned) ball with seven strikeouts, five walks and two hits allowed in his season debut on the mound. His production on offense has been tremendous, as Ohtani entered Friday with a line of .280/.333/.600 (154 wRC+) with two home runs and a pair of stolen bases in 27 plate appearances. He smashed a three-run double in his second at-bat against Toronto on Friday and then followed with a solo shot in his next AB.

  • The Rangers sent righty reliever Matt Bush to the 10-day injured list with inflammation in his pitching elbow, the team announced. He’ll undergo an MRI, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Bush has already undergone Tommy John surgery twice, so if he needs a third procedure, it could be a death blow to his career. The 35-year-old missed the previous two campaign because of arm problems, and though he was able to work his way back to the Rangers’ bullpen this season, he yielded three earned runs in as many innings before going to the IL.
  • Lefty Alex Wood’s debut with the Giants may not be far off, as manager Gabe Kapler suggested Friday the team could decide to activate him after his next outing at their alternate site, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The Giants signed the oft-injured former Brave, Red and Dodger to a $3MM guarantee in free agency, but back troubles have kept him off the mound since last month. He has been working back from an ablation procedure on his spine for the past few weeks.
  • Minor League Baseball has suspended free-agent righty David Carpenter for one year for a violation of its Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Carpenter, 35, logged a 3.69 ERA with various teams in 214 2/3 innings and parts of six seasons from 2011-19. He hasn’t found a new club since the Reds released him last September.

California Health Notes: Murphy, Ohtani, Bellinger

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Here’s the latest from out west, with a focus on the health situations of a trio of important players …

  • Athletics catcher Sean Murphy is firmly on the mend after an offseason medical scare, Matt Kawahara writes for the San Francisco Chronicle. He discussed his recovery from a collapsed lung, noting that it was quite a bit more terrifying before medical professionals informed him that he could anticipate a relatively swift recovery. Murphy underwent an additional procedure to protect against a recurrence. Though he’s delayed to open spring camp, the top Oakland backstop says he’s “really optimistic” of being fully ramped up in time to get behind the dish on Opening Day. Murphy, 26, will look to establish himself as a first-tier MLB performer after mashing out a .237/.355/.491 slash through his first 200 plate appearances.
  • Angels hurler/slugger Shohei Ohtani is under the microscope as he looks to get his pitching career back on track. As Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter, Ohtani appears to be in a good place from a velocity perspective. The righty says he’s working comfortably in the mid-nineties in bullpen sessions and has touched 97 mph. When last we saw Ohtani in top form, during his brief but scintillating 2018 debut, he was averaging nearly 97 mph with his heater. The hopefully resurgent two-way player is also now toying with a changeup as he fine-tunes his arsenal.
  • Dodgers superstar Cody Bellinger seems to be making a strong bounce back from offseason shoulder surgery, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. Bellinger, who memorably dislocated the joint in an over-exuberant NLCS home run celebration, says he’s “way ahead” of the anticipated schedule for his recovery. Given his progress to this point, the 2019 MVP says he’s “100 percent” sure he’ll be ready to roll on Opening Day. That’s obviously quite welcome news for the Los Angeles powerhouse. While the Dodgers are perhaps baseball’s deepest team, there’s no replacing a player of Bellinger’s ability. And the club is facing its sternest intra-division test in some time in the form of a talent-laden Padres outfit.

Quick Hits: Braves, Rosenthal, Ohtani, Ray, Cherington

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The Braves had interest in Trevor Rosenthal before the reliever signed with the A’s, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman writes (Twitter link).  With Rosenthal now off the market, Atlanta is still looking for right-handed relief help, and Heyman wonders if the Braves could turn to a familiar face in Shane Greene.  Apart from some consideration from the Twins earlier this month, there hasn’t been much buzz about Greene this offseason, despite his 2.39 ERA over 90 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season.  Greene doesn’t have a big fastball and his peripherals haven’t been overly impressive, however, which could explain why he still available heading into his age-32 season.  Atlanta did recently add veteran righty Nate Jones to their bullpen mix on a minor league deal.

Some more notes from around baseball…

  • Most players make changes in the wake of a rough season, but Shohei Ohtani faced the increased challenge of overhauling himself as both a hitter and a pitcher after a 2020 campaign the Angels star called “pathetic.”  Ohtani’s offseason endeavors included a trip to Driveline Baseball, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports, and Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo told reporters that the pitcher/DH has adopted a new training regiment, a new diet, and made changes to his swing.  Ohtani’s training has been helped by the fact that he is now recovered from a flexor strain that limited him to 1 2/3 innings as a pitcher in 2020, which came after not pitching at all in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery.
  • Robbie Ray’s foray into the open market didn’t last long, as the southpaw re-signed with the Blue Jays shortly after the free agent period opened in early November.  This gave Ray more time to spend with Jays coaches on trying to correct his form following a mediocre 2020 season, Ray told reporters (including The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm).  Ray made changes to his arm slot prior to the 2020 season, which may have led to such disastrous results as a 6.62 ERA and 45 walks over just 51 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.
  • The Pirates are still in the early stages of a rebuild, and GM Ben Cherington gave an outline of the team’s basic plan to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and other reporters.  Modeled after how other clubs have undergone rebuilds, Cherington broke it down into three steps: talent accumulation, developing that talent, and then adding to that talent base through trades and free agency.  The general manager also made it clear that the Bucs are still in the first step, as “whatever improvement we’ve seen in our overall organizational talent — and I think we have seen some improvements in the last year — it’s not enough.  We’ve got to keep going.  We’ve got to be one of the stronger organizations just in terms of overall talent to give ourselves the best chance to win.”
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