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Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson.  To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.

“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News.  “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”

In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic.  We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”

Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.

However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help.  In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence.  Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.

While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day.  This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter.  This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.

Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target.  Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings.  A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.

Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis.  As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton.  There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.

Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians

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Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.

Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.

That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.

Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.

For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.

Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.

For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.

Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.

Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.

The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.

Reds Reportedly Pursued Sonny Gray; Interested In Tyler Glasnow

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Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.

Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.

Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.

If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.

There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.

It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.

That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.

Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.

That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.

There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”

Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.

Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.

Can The Rays Cut Payroll Without Moving Tyler Glasnow?

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow’s name has been floated frequently in the rumor mill this offseason, and it’s not hard to see why. Tampa Bay’s highest Opening Day payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was a figure just under $84MM in 2022. Meanwhile, RosterResource projects the Rays for a substantial increase over that figure, with a $126MM projection for the club’s 2024 Opening Day roster as things stand. That disparity of more than $40MM has led to a widespread belief around the league that the club needs to slash payroll this offseason, and Glasnow’s $25MM salary in 2024 is far and away the largest salary on Tampa’s books for 2024.

That said, the Rays are facing a great deal of question marks regarding their starting rotation due to significant injuries to lefties Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs as well was right-hander Drew Rasmussen last season. Each of the three required season-ending surgery in 2023 and figure to miss much, if not all, of the 2024 campaign as well. That leaves the Rays with just three sure-fire starting pitchers entering the 2024 season as things stand: Glasnow, Aaron Civale, and Zach Eflin.

The club could get additional help next year from youngsters Taj Bradley and Shane Baz (the latter of whom is coming off a lost season due to Tommy John surgery in 2023) as well as righty Zack Littell, who pitched solidly as a swingman for the Rays in 2023, but the club’s many pitching injuries this past season serve as a reminder of the importance of maintaining starting pitching depth. Trading Glasnow would represent a major blow to that depth, particularly after he finished second to only Eflin in innings on the Rays last year despite not making his season debut until the end of May.

It’s worth noting the possibility the Rays’ situation isn’t as dire as it may seem. After all, president of baseball operations Erik Neander has indicated that the club would be open to running a higher payroll in 2024 than they have in previous years in order to keep more of the club’s 99-win 2023 roster together. Specifics on exactly how high of a payroll club ownership is willing to stomach aren’t clear, but cutting projected payroll to $100MM would place them 22nd among majors league clubs in projected payroll for 2024, just behind the Brewers ($101MM) and just ahead of their southern neighbors in Miami ($96MM). While the club has typically run a bottom-five payroll among MLB clubs in recent years, precedent for the Rays ranking higher does exist, as Cot’s indicates their 2010 payroll was 22nd in the majors as well.

Given the club’s pitching and financial situations, it’s fair to not only ask if the Rays can afford to keep Glasnow in 2024, but also if they can afford to part with him. While there are no simple answers to the second question, it’s worth looking into the first: if the Rays are willing to run a payroll of $100MM in 2024, is there a path to retaining Glasnow as a member of the Opening Day roster?

Glasnow isn’t the only Rays player who’s seen his name appear in the rumor mill this offseason; outfielder Manuel Margot’s name has percolated almost as frequently as the hulking right-hander’s, with the Mets and Yankees among his known suitors. Moving on from Margot, who has posted roughly league average numbers (97 wRC+) at the plate over the past four seasons alongside stellar defense in the outfield, would likely be a must if the Rays are to trim their current payroll to $100MM while retaining Glasnow. Margot’s $10MM salary in 2024 is third-highest on the team, behind only Glasnow and Eflin. Trading two years of Eflin, who’s under contract for a combined $29MM over the next two seasons, in order to retain one year of Glasnow would make little sense for the Rays beyond an exorbitant trade return for Eflin’s services.

Margot isn’t the only outfielder who’s seen his name floated frequently as a potential Rays trade chip this offseason. Righty slugger Harold Ramirez has also seen his name floated as a potential trade candidate thanks to the similarity of his role to that of fellow slugger Luke Raley. While Ramirez’s projected $4.4MM salary in 2024 (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) is a reasonable price to pay for his services, Raley’s presence as a .249/.333/.490 hitter who crushed 19 homers in just 406 trips to the plate last season fills a similar niche to Ramirez on the club’s roster at a pre-arbitration rate. That makes Ramirez somewhat expendable for the Rays despite a solid .306/.348/.432 slash line over his two seasons with Tampa.

If the Rays part ways with both Margot and Ramirez this offseason, that would trim just under $15MM from the club’s payroll without doing too much damage to the club’s outfield depth, which would still include Raley in addition to Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, and Greg Jones. That still leaves the club with more than $11MM in payroll that would need to be trimmed to get the club’s payroll down to $100MM, however. While dealing a veteran relief arm like Jason Adam or Andrew Kitteredge could save the club $2-3MM while opening up a roster spot for a youngster like Manuel Rodriguez or Colby White, the club’s bullpen depth would suffer for it and the Rays would still need to part ways with a more significant piece.

The two most likely candidates to depart in such a deal would be outfielder Randy Arozarena and second baseman Brandon Lowe, but parting with either player opens up significant question marks within the club’s positional group. Arozarena has become a face of the franchise in recent years thanks to his steady production and postseason heroic. In 2023, the 28-year-old delivered a 20/20 season while posting a 127 wRC+ as the club’s regular left fielder, production that would be difficult to replace without adding even more in payroll than Arozarena’s projected $9MM salary. That being said, there’s at least an argument to listen to offers on Arozarena’s services given the club’s budget crunch and the fact that he figures to only get more expensive in future trips through arbitration as he enters his thirties.

Lowe, on the other hand, could be easier for the club to replace. The 29-year-old had something of a bounceback season at the plate in 2023, slashing .231/.328/.443 with a 117 wRC+ in 109 games this past year after posting roughly league average numbers at the dish in 2022. Like Arozarena, Lowe figures to only get more expensive in the coming years as the Rays hold a pair of club options on his services for 2025 and 2026, valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM respectively. With plenty of young infielders like Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, and Jonathan Aranda approaching the big leagues, Lowe’s production could be easier for the club to replace internally than Arozarena’s, as well.

That being said, a Lowe trade comes with its own pitfalls. Lowe flashed the offensive production of an impact player from 2020-21, when he slashed .253/.346/.532 (140 wRC+) with 53 home runs in just 205 games. While he’s now two years removed from that offensive outburst, it’s worth noting that Lowe has been slowed by back issues over the past two seasons. A healthy 2024 campaign could see Lowe return to the All-Star caliber production from earlier in his career and substantially increase his value, both to the Rays and on the trade market. A Lowe trade would also exacerbate the uncertainty Tampa’s infield is facing due to the off-the-field issues of franchise shortstop Wander Franco and the offseason surgery of slick-fielding backup Taylor Walls, though it’s at least possible one or both players could be back in time for Opening Day.

For the Rays to make considerable cuts to their 2024 payroll while also retaining Glasnow, the club would likely have to part ways with at least four players in Margot, Ramirez, one of Adam or Kitteredge, and one of Arozarena or Lowe. While shipping out Margot, Ramirez, and a relief arm would all be perfectly defensible actions that subtract from areas of substantial depth for the club, dealing Arozarena or Lowe would entail giving up a slugger with multiple years of team control in the midst of his prime years who the club could struggle to replace the production of. That’s a steep price to pay in order to retain the services of Glasnow for the 2024 season, particularly when he figures to depart in free agency next winter either way.

Of course, there’s plenty of factors this exercise doesn’t take into account as well. Chief among them is the potential trade returns the Rays could garner, not only for Glasnow, but also for a longer-term piece like Lowe or Arozarena. If the Rays find themselves bowled over by an offer for any of the pieces mentioned here, the options at their disposal could certainly change. It’s also fair to note that the Rays could at least plausibly be willing to carry a payroll that exceeds even the $100MM figure used in this exercise; after all, the club made an offer to superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason and had interest in dealing for two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, both of whom would have likely required financial commitments north of Glasnow’s $25MM salary. Since then, the Rays have also hammered out an agreement on a new stadium in St. Petersburg, potentially further incentivizing the club to loosen the purse strings.

The Opener: Go, Nevin, Glasnow

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With Thanksgiving Day drawing near, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Will more international players be posted soon? 

On Tuesday, the LG Twins of the KBO agreed to post right-handed pitcher Woo-Suk Go. The Korean posting system is similar to the Japanese posting system (by which Yoshinobu Yamamoto was recently made available) in that MLB teams have a 45-day window to negotiate with the player after he is officially posted. However, there is no word yet as to when the Twins will initiate the process and open Go’s window.

Shota Imanaga, one of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, is another international player whose posting timeline remains unclear. Earlier this month, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yokohama DeNA BayStars would post Imanaga on Monday, November 13. Needless to say, that date has come and gone, and the southpaw remains unavailable to MLB clubs. It’s possible that Imanaga and the BayStars are waiting for fellow NPB All-Star Yamamoto to sign and set the market, in which case it seems more likely that Go, a reliever, will be the next international player to be posted.

2. Will Phil Nevin coach in 2024?

Yesterday morning, the Padres announced the hiring of Mike Shildt as their new manager. The former Cardinals’ skipper beat out various other candidates for the role, including Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. However, the most high-profile finalist who lost out on the job was former Angels manager Phil Nevin. Eight different teams replaced their skippers this offseason, but Nevin, who spent just under two years at the helm in LA, did not land a new managerial gig.

However, if he is interested in returning to the dugout, there are still coaching vacancies around the league. Indeed, per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Nevin is in the mix to be the Mets’ bench coach under new manager Carlos Mendoza. The two worked together previously with the Yankees, and Nevin told the Post, “If they were to ask, I would do anything for Carlos.”

3. Is a Tyler Glasnow trade on the horizon?

Plenty of names have been floated in trade rumors this offseason, but perhaps none is as sure to be moved as Tyler Glasnow. The 30-year-old will earn $25MM this season, after which he is set to hit the open market. Given his high salary and impending free agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays will “definitely” trade him this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is similarly confident that Glasnow will be pitching for a new team in 2024.

With the free agent market for top-of-the-rotation arms potentially slowing down until Yamamoto signs, perhaps the trade market will start to heat up. The Rays would surely like some additional payroll clarity as soon as possible, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Glasnow traded sooner rather than later.

12 Possible Fits For A Tyler Glasnow Trade

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is among this offseason’s top trade candidates. He’s set to make $25MM in his final season before free agency. That’d be the largest single-year salary in franchise history. The Rays committed to that number not long ago, signing the 6’8″ hurler to an extension in August 2022. Even with various subsequent injuries to their rotation, Tampa Bay could move Glasnow to bring in cheaper talent.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted this evening that a pair of rival executives believe the Rays will pull the trigger on a Glasnow deal this offseason. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment in an appearance on Foul Territory (X link). Rosenthal suggested Glasnow could be the likeliest of the group of top starters who are frequently mentioned as trade candidates — also including Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber — to move.

If the Rays did pull the trigger on a deal this winter, it’d have to be to a club with legitimate playoff aspirations in 2024. There’s little reason for teams like the Nationals or Rockies to acquire a star pitcher with one year left on his deal. An acquiring team would need to be willing to accommodate a $25MM salary. It’s hard to envision Tampa Bay making a trade of this magnitude within division.

That narrows things down somewhat but still leaves various potential suitors. Let’s identify some fits (listed alphabetically). All salary projections are courtesy of Roster Resource.

  • Angels: The Angels arguably stretch the definition of “legitimate playoff aspirations,” especially if Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere. They have made clear they’re not going to rebuild in any case. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning are solid rotation pieces. They’re not true #1 arms, though, something Glasnow would provide.
  • Astros: Houston will be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. into the middle of the season. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier make for a strong top three. Hunter Brown and J.P. France tailed off a bit as their rookie seasons wound down. Glasnow fits on paper, although it’s unclear whether the Astros would take on his salary. GM Dana Brown has downplayed the financial flexibility at their disposal.
  • Braves: Atlanta made a run at Aaron Nola before his seven-year contract to return to Philadelphia. The Braves subsequently added Reynaldo López on a three-year pact and indicated he could return to the rotation. That doesn’t preclude them from exploring clearer upgrades to join Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in the middle to upper part of the staff. The farm system has thinned but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t shied away from aggressive strikes on the trade market to support an elite core.
  • Cardinals: St. Louis has sought three starting pitchers this offseason. They’ve added two veteran innings eaters on one-year deals, bringing in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson on consecutive days. That raises the floor but still leaves them in clear need of a top-of-the-rotation arm. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged the team has yet to dig deeply into trade possibilities (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’ll change now that they’ve added some stability without a ton of upside on the open market.
  • Cubs: Marcus Stroman declined his player option for 2024. That leaves the Cubs with a front three of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. There’s clearly room for another high-end starter. Chicago isn’t far off this past season’s Opening Day payroll but projects around $25MM below their franchise high mark. They’re about $50MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold.
  • Diamondbacks: Taking on a $25MM player isn’t typical operating procedure for the Diamondbacks. Yet it’s something they could consider this winter on the heels of a World Series run. Arizona’s $103MM projected payroll is around $13MM south of this past season’s mark. It’s nearly $30MM below their franchise high. Adding another starter to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt is a clear priority.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are going to add a couple starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías hit free agency. Kershaw’s return timeline is uncertain after shoulder surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will miss part or all of next season. Walker Buehler is back but coming off a second Tommy John surgery. Behind him are a few second-year hurlers (Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan) and swingman Ryan Yarbrough. Any of the top free agent or trade candidates on the rotation front make sense.
  • Giants: San Francisco’s projected payroll sits at $148MM, about $40MM shy of this year’s mark. Logan Webb is an ace. The rest of the rotation is in question. Alex Cobb is coming off hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling had injuries and/or underperformance in 2023. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is still unproven. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been reluctant to make free agent splashes for starting pitching. A Glasnow trade would add an impact arm without the kind of long-term rotation commitment to which this front office has been averse.
  • Mets: The Mets are likely to bring in multiple starters. Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only locks for the Opening Day rotation. It’s debatable whether they’re positioned to part with noteworthy young talent to add a rental with the team coming off a 75-87 season. New York has made clear they’re not punting the 2024 season entirely, though. Adding a high-end starter is one step of many required to put themselves back in the conversation with the Braves and Phillies in the NL East.
  • Padres: San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish after seeing each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez hit free agency. The Padres are reportedly trimming payroll, which could rule them out on a $25MM arm, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been afraid to move things around to accommodate impact talent. The Snell trade with Tampa Bay has been one of the best moves of his tenure.
  • Rangers: The defending champions could lose Jordan Montgomery to free agency. Jacob deGrom won’t be ready until the season’s second half. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney is still a good starting five. They could nevertheless take a swing for Glasnow, building a potential playoff rotation consisting of Glasnow, deGrom, Scherzer and Eovaldi as they try to repeat.
  • Reds: Cincinnati’s situation is similar to Arizona’s. The Reds aren’t big spenders but could be in position for a lofty one-year salary for a #1 starter. They’re projected at $52MM for next season, $30MM below this year’s Opening Day mark. The young position player group put the Reds on the fringe of postseason contention. Adding a starter to lead a staff that also includes Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott is the next step.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Jansen, A’s

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The Rays figure to spend much of their offseason grappling with how to improve their roster despite a $126MM projected payroll (per RosterResource) that would be a franchise record. Given the considerable expected increase in Tampa’s payroll, plenty of speculation has swirled surrounding the future of ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of his contract with the Rays and is due $25MM in 2024. Moving Glasnow would trim considerable payroll for the Rays while also allowing them to secure cheaper talent in the return package, a method the club has frequently utilized in recent years when parting ways with players like Blake Snell, Chris Archer and, Evan Longoria.

While it’s certainly feasible the Rays could decide to take that route with Glasnow, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that such a deal is unlikely to come together any time soon, noting that the club’s talks regarding a Glasnow deal are seen as “preliminary.” Morosi goes on to suggest that a Glasnow trade is more likely to occur after the top tier of free agent starters, which includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, have found new homes. Waiting until the free agent market plays itself out more is a sensible choice for the Rays; after all, plenty of clubs are rumored to be looking for front-of-the-rotation impact this offseason, and teams that miss out on the aforementioned group of pitchers may be more motivated to get a deal for Glasnow done later in the offseason once the big names of the free agent market are off the table.

More from around the American League…

  • Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is poised to hit free agency following the 2024 season, but it appears that the 28-year-old and the team aren’t planning on getting together on an extension any time soon. In an interview with Scott Mitchell of SportsCentre, Jansen said that though the sides did talk about a potential extension, “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens throughout this year.” Toronto, of course, has fellow backstop Alejandro Kirk under team control through the end of the 2026 season. Given that reality, the fact that an extension for Jansen appears to not be a top priority for the Blue Jays is hardly a surprise. That’s especially true considering the club’s reported interest in top free agent bats such as Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
  • The Athletics have now received unanimous approval from MLB owners for their plan to relocate to Las Vegas. In the wake of the relocation vote, team president Dave Kaval interviewed with The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Kaval expressed the team’s excitement for the coming move. Though he noted that Las Vegas leaves the club with “uncertainty” regarding revenue from local media as the smallest TV market in MLB, Kaval noted that the club expects their new market to “punch a little above its weight” in other areas to make up for that. Kaval also suggested that the club has no interest in leaving the “Athletics” name behind as it moves to the desert. That’s a particularly relevant piece of information given Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that leaving the name in Oakland could be among the city’s demands should the A’s wish to stay in Oakland after their lease expires following the 2024 campaign but prior to the club’s Las Vegas ballpark’s opening, which is expected to occur in time for the start of the 2028 season. Kaval went on to clarify that the club’s current TV deal only applies while the club is playing in the Bay Area, which could provide the club with an additional incentive to get a deal done either with the city of Oakland or to share Oracle Park with the Giants for the 2025-27 seasons.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

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