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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

West Notes: Giants, Yamamoto, Angels, Leiter

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The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals for stars Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. While the club was still active on last year’s free agent market, deals for lower-profile players like Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger didn’t save San Francisco from a 79-83 campaign that ended with a fourth place finish in the NL West this year. As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office looks to turn things around ahead of the 2024 season, the club has been connected to plenty of top players this offseason, ranging from star outfielders Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to even two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

One such star the Giants are known to have interest in is NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who Zaidi himself noted the club has scouted extensively in the run-up to his posting late last month. Today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provided an update on the club’s interest in Yamamoto, who ranked as the #3 free agent in this year’s edition of MLBTR’s annual top 50 free agents list. Per Slusser, other teams interested in Yamamoto believe that the Giants “have an edge” in the sweepstakes for his services. Yamamoto figures to be among the most sought-after free agents this winter, with reports indicating that nearly half the league has interest in the 25-year-old righty. The Mets and Yankees, in particular, have been connected to Yamamoto heavily to this point in the offseason.

Even if San Francisco does have a leg up in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, a signing would surely require a major financial outlay. The righty is widely expected to secure the largest deal of any starting pitcher on the market this winter besides Ohtani; MLBTR has projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal that would only be surpassed by the guarantees secured by Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among free agent starters. That shouldn’t be a problem for San Francisco, which reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range last offseason before 2022’s AL MVP ultimately returned to the Yankees.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • The Angels have made significant headway in assembling their 2024 coaching staff under new manager Ron Washington in recent weeks, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests the club previously offered both former Pirates and Rockies manager Clint Hurdle as well as 21-year MLB veteran LaTroy Hawkins roles on Washington’s staff; Hurdle was offered a job as Washington’s bench coach while Hawkins was offered the bullpen coach role. Nightengale goes on to note both men are expected to retain their current roles as special assistants to the front offices in Colorado and Minnesota, respectively. That’s hardly a surprise, as the club has reportedly hired Steve Karsay as the new bullpen coach in Anaheim while bench coach Ray Montgomery will remain in that role for a third season in 2024.
  • The Rangers were open to moving right-handed prospect Jack Leiter at the trade deadline this summer in the right deal for pitching, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The second-overall pick of the 2021 draft was initially expected to be a fast-rising arm who could impact the big league club shortly after being drafted, but the righty has struggled to this point in his professional career. While Grant notes that Leiter made some strides last season, he’s not yet ready to contribute in the majors and could be part of the return for a front-of-the-rotation arm, should Texas look to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades this winter. While Leiter has a career 5.37 ERA across two minor league seasons, the 23-year-old ended the 2023 campaign on a relative high note with a 3.31 ERA and a 39.7% strikeout rate in his final four starts at the Double-A level.

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

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Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

Mets Continuing To Explore Rotation Market

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The Mets are soon to add Luis Severino to their rotation, as they’re in the process of finalizing a $13MM contract with the longtime Yankee. That’s one of what’ll surely be multiple additions to the starting staff, as New York entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and José Quintana locked into rotation spots.

There’s no secret about their interest in NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the three-time winner of the Sawamura Award (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). Upwards of a dozen teams are in the mix for the 25-year-old righty, who seems likely to command the largest contract of any pure pitcher in this year’s class. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that some rival clubs consider the Mets the favorite on Yamamoto, but there’ll be no shortage of competition.

Unsurprisingly, the front office has its eye on multiple options on the open market. Michael Marino of Fantrax tweeted this week that the club was showing interest in left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Andy Martino of SNY echoes that sentiment, calling Montgomery “a more likely target” than fellow free agent southpaws Blake Snell and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Montgomery has been a popular name. He is also known to have drawn attention from the Red Sox, Yankees and incumbent Rangers. It stands to reason there are numerous additional suitors for the soon to be 31-year-old, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA across 188 2/3 innings. That’s a career-best mark, but he has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine while reaching 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons.

In addition to their Yamamoto pursuit, the Mets apparently also have some level of interest in Shota Imanaga. Martino adds that they’ll “explore” the market on the left-hander, the second-best pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason. Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars this week, opening a 45-day window for him to sign with a major league team.

While Imanaga isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, he has a chance to beat the five-year, $75MM pact which the Mets gave Senga last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so he’s one of the younger free agent arms available (albeit nowhere near as young as Yamamoto). He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA showing over 148 innings in NPB. Imanaga struck out 174 hitters, fanning a little over 29% of batters faced. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke projected him as a potential mid-rotation arm. Brandon Tew of Spots Info Solutions took a look at Imanaga’s repertoire yesterday, praising his command and the carry he generates on his low-90s four-seam fastball.

Each of Montgomery and Imanaga could land five or more years. A pact of that length would align with the Mets’ general competitive timeline. Team officials have made clear they won’t punt on the upcoming season but are targeting 2025 and beyond as a more realistic contention window.

To that end, Martino suggests they’re unlikely to be actively involved in trade discussions for a star player whose contract expires at the end of next season. He reports that the Mets are not in discussions with the Rays on Tyler Glasnow at present. (While Martino doesn’t specifically mention Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber, it’d be similarly logical for the team to mostly sit out those discussions as well.) They’re seemingly reluctant to relinquish significant future value for a rental on the heels of a fourth-place finish in a competitive NL East.

Orioles Notes: Rotation, Nola, Stadium

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For the past year, the big question for the Orioles is whether they’ll add a high-end starting pitcher. While Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez took steps forward in 2023 (during the second half of the season in the latter’s case), there’s clearly still room for another pitcher who can slot into the upper half of the rotation.

O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged as much during the GM Meetings a few weeks ago. Baltimore has done virtually nothing in free agency during Elias’ five-year tenure. They’re still yet to sign a free agent to a multi-year contract. Much of that has been amidst a rebuild, so there’s a possibility for Elias and his front office to be more aggressive.

To that end, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the O’s had shown interest in Aaron Nola during his free agency. There’s no indication that Baltimore ever put forth a formal offer before Nola returned to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM contract. The right-hander was obviously going to require a commitment well into nine figures, so the O’s being involved at all hints at some willingness to pursue a notable free agent strike.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell should land more significant contracts than the one that Nola received. Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and NPB star Shota Imanaga are among the next tier of free agent starters. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball wrote yesterday that Yamamoto — whom MLBTR predicts for a nine-year, $225MM contract — is likely to be out of Baltimore’s comfort zone financially.

Free agency is only one means of bringing in pitching talent. There are a few notable names who could be available on the trade market. It’s hard to envision the Rays moving Tyler Glasnow within the AL East, but each of Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes have also been floated as candidates. Dubroff suggests the O’s have interest in both hurlers — no surprise given their talent and the team’s desire for a rotation upgrade.

Baltimore still has a top-tier farm system despite the prospect graduations of Rodriguez and Rookie of the Year winner Gunnar Henderson. It’s safe to assume that duo and top shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday are off the table in talks. Players like Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo are among numerous younger talents whom Elias and his staff could make available if they pursued a trade for a high-end starter (particularly one like Cease, who has two seasons of remaining arbitration control).

Also on the docket for the Orioles this winter: finding clarity on their lease agreement with the Maryland Stadium Authority. The franchise announced in late September that they had agreed to a 30-year lease extension at Camden Yards. One day later, the Baltimore Sun reported that it was instead a non-binding memorandum of understanding. That agreement would provide the Orioles long-term development rights around the stadium but did not represent an official extension of the lease.

With the current lease expiring on December 31, the Sun’s Jeff Barker reports that the state and the team are considering decoupling the lease from the development rights to facilitate getting a binding lease in place within the next five weeks. As Barker points out, the legislative hurdles to be cleared are lower for the lease agreement itself than for the accompanying development plans. Tabling those discussions (even temporarily) could get an official lease extension in place to firmly put to rest any questions about the O’s future in Baltimore. In 2019, owner John Angelos pledged the organization will remain in the city “as long as Fort McHenry is watching over the harbor.”

Details On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Plan For Free Agent Meetings

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been officially free to negotiate with MLB clubs since last Tuesday, when the Orix Buffaloes posted the star pitcher.  The free agent courtship process looks to begin in earnest next week, as SNY’s Andy Martino reported on how Yamamoto and his representatives at Wasserman will approach the decision of picking the righty’s new team.

The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams.  Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks.  The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching.

Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract, Martino writes.  Obviously there’s a lot of fluidity in this timeline depending on how many teams makes Yamamoto’s in-person shortlist and what types of offers end up on the table, but it would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day.

Landing Yamamoto would undoubtedly make for a merry holiday season for any team or fanbase, given all of the hype that has surrounded the 25-year-old’s impending arrival in Major League Baseball.  With a 1.82 ERA and a long list of accolades amassed over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yamamoto is one of the most intriguing players to ever make the jump from NPB to MLB, as well as something of a unique free agent in general due to his young age.  It is widely anticipated that Yamamoto will earn at least $200MM in his contract (MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM deal), and agent Joel Wolfe said earlier this week that 11-14 teams had already been in touch within the first day of Yamamoto’s posting.

Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player.  Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

Nearly Half The League Has Reached Out To Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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As the best pitcher in Japan who’s been made available to MLB teams at just 25 years of age, Orix Buffaloes right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has always been expected to command an aggressive bidding war. Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs opened yesterday morning, and he’s unsurprisingly drawn widespread early interest.

Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who’s representing Yamamoto, told the Kyodo News last night that he’s already heard from 11 to 14 teams. Yamamoto’s negotiation window officially opened yesterday morning.

“This is by far the player with the most interested teams that I have ever seen at the beginning of free agency,” said Wolfe, an executive vice president of one of the sport’s largest agencies. As one would expect, Wolfe indicated that Yamamoto isn’t approaching free agency with any restrictions based on geography. (Even if Yamamoto does have some specific geographic preferences, those would likely be kept close to the vest — if only as a means of retaining leverage in talks.)

The list of teams already linked to Yamamoto in free agency nearly outnumbers the list of teams who’ve not yet had public ties to him. The Cardinals, Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), Diamondbacks, Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox and Dodgers have all been reported to have interest in Yamamoto. That’s 11 teams right there, and it’s surely not a comprehensive list. Yamamoto figures to draw interest from contending clubs and non-contenders alike, given the rarity with which a free agent of this caliber reaches the market at such a young age. Even a team eyeing 2025-26 as a more realistic range for competing could outbid the field for Yamamoto and know that he’d be squarely in his prime years when that window for contention is more earnestly open.

Yamamoto has been evaluated extensively by MLB scouts, with the consensus being that he’s a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2 caliber arm in a big league rotation. Between that ceiling, his age and his brilliant track record in Japan, he’s expected to command the largest contract ever for an NPB pitcher making the jump to MLB — perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM (plus the requisite posting fee). Yamamoto has won three straight Sawamura Awards in Japan — NPB’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award — and just posted a career-best 1.21 ERA in 2023. He’s logged a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his past five seasons while punching out better than 27% of his opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate.

Any team that signs Yamamoto will owe a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. That fee is equivalent to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM (a combined total of $9.375MM), plus 15% of any money thereafter. Using MLBTR’s predicted nine-year, $225MM deal as a hypothetical example, that contract would come with a $35.625MM fee — a total outlay of $260.25MM for the signing team. Given Yamamoto’s youth and the substantial demand for him, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if any deal wound up containing an opt-out a few years into the pact, thus allowing him to return to free agency in his late 20s after having the potential to establish himself as a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm in the Majors.

Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios

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The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.

Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.

Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.

Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.

Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.

Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.

In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.

As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.

It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.

That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.

All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.

The Opener: Lynn, Yamamoto, MLBTR Chat

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As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to watch for today:

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray,  Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot

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As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:

1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola

The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.

While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week

Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.

Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.

3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed

The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.

Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.

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