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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios

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The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.

Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.

Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.

Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.

Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.

Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.

In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.

As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.

It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.

That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.

All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.

The Opener: Lynn, Yamamoto, MLBTR Chat

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As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to watch for today:

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray,  Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot

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As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:

1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola

The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.

While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week

Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.

Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.

3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed

The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.

Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.

Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching

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Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.”  Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances.  Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.

That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent.  Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.

Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason.  Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A.  Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.

This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez.  If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.

In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training.  2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship.  The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.

Diamondbacks, Tigers Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has garnered the attention of many clubs around the league and Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Tigers and Diamondbacks to the list.

The incredible popularity of Yamamoto is due to a couple of factors. Primarily, he has utterly dominated hitters in his career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He has an earned run average of 1.82 over his seven seasons, including a ridiculous 1.21 mark in 2023. He struck out 169 of the 636 batters he faced this year, a rate of 26.6%, while his 28 walks led to a rate of just 4.4%.

In addition to the results, teams will be incredibly interested in the fact that Yamamoto is just 25 years old. Players that come up through the affiliated ranks need to get six years of major league service time before reaching the open market, meaning they usually are close to or beyond their 30th birthday by the time they become free agents. That makes it extremely rare to have an opportunity to sign a player that is both this talented and this young. MLBTR predicted him for a contract of $225MM over nine years.

A projected contract of that size would normally restrict a player’s market to the top spenders but his age might open the door to some surprise bidders. Yamamoto has indeed been connected to plenty of moneyed clubs such as the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and others. But even teams that don’t usually come up in these rumors could perhaps be willing to stretch their usual spending habits and take a chance on Yamamoto since the chance of him suddenly succumbing to the aging curve would be far lower than other free agents.

The Diamondbacks clearly need starting pitching, despite having just gone on a run to the Fall Classic. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt give them three arms for next year’s rotation but they clearly have a drop-off after that, as demonstrated by the fact that they deployed a bullpen game in the fourth contest of the World Series, allowing 11 runs that night. Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry are on the roster as options for the back end but a rotation upgrade would surely help them build off the momentum of this year.

Their track record doesn’t give a lot of optimism of them getting this kind of deal done, however. They gave a mega deal to Zack Greinke going into 2016 but that was under a different front office and seems to be the exception more than the rule. Leaving that deal aside, their largest free agent contract is the $85MM they gave to Madison Bumgarner. They would likely have to more than double that to land Yamamoto. The Greinke deal was for $206.5MM, though, so landing Yamamoto wouldn’t be completely unprecedented. And as mentioned, some teams may be willing to go beyond their comfort zones for an exceptional case like this.

They are currently projected for a payroll of $104MM next year, per Roster Resource. They have gone a bit beyond that in the past, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts listing their franchise high as $132MM. Teams sometimes spend a little more after a strong postseason run, with some extra cash on hand after hosting some lucrative playoff games, perhaps giving the Snakes a bit of money to spend this winter.

The Tigers have struck plenty of big deals in the past but Scott Harris has kept things on the modest side since taking over as president of baseball operations a year ago. Last winter, they kept themselves to one-year deals for Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen.

There is perhaps an argument that the club is ready for more aggression, as they were above .500 after the All-Star break in 2023 and were able to climb into second place in the American League Central. With Miguel Cabrera’s onerous contract off the books, perhaps they could feel it’s time to make a splash. However, that was thinking a couple of years ago when the club tried to surge back into contention by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, which didn’t work out.

“This game has taught us time and time again,” Harris recently said, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, “Sometimes, teams overestimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back.” He then said that the club is going in the right direction but “can’t do anything in free agency or in trades that sets us back. If we find an opportunity that’s going to push us forward and we’re confident of that, we’re going to do it.”

The club is only projected for a payroll of $79MM next year, per Roster Resource, with a couple of non-tenders likely dropping that even further. They have been way beyond that in past, per Cot’s, so there’s room for them to make a bold strike on Yamamoto financially. But given the comments from Harris, it seems there are things beyond the money that would have to align for something to come together.

As for the Yankees, there were reports this week that suggested that club’s chances of signing Yamamoto took a hit in a strange way. Cashman alluded to the injury history of Giancarlo Stanton in a manner that was apparently viewed as disrespectful. Since Stanton and Yamamoto both have Joel Wolfe as an agent, some worried that the kerfuffle with Stanton would have the domino effect of spilling into their pursuit of Yamamoto. However, Andy Martino of SNY recently reported that the Japanese righty wasn’t even aware of the squabble.

In addition to the sum guaranteed to the player, a signing team will have to send money to the Orix Buffaloes, his NPB club. The MLB team will pay a fee to the Buffaloes in proportion to the size of Yamamoto’s contract. They’ll owe the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Once he is officially posted, there will be a 45-day window for him to work out a deal.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

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Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Phillies Rumors: Nola, Yamamoto, Snell, Hader

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Aaron Nola unsurprisingly rejected the Phillies’ one-year qualifying offer this week and is now squarely on the open market in search of a long-term contract. The Phils haven’t been shy about their hope to bring him back, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove last week that the team “loves” Nola and remains hopeful of working out a new contract (video link to the full nine-minute interview).

“We were not able to get him signed in spring training, which was unfortunate for us, but we understood his scenario,” Dombrowski said. “Now he’s in a spot where he has the ability to talk to 29 other clubs, so it doesn’t get any easier. But I do think there’s mutual interest in both parties trying to get something done. Hopefully for us we can get it done, because we absolutely love Aaron and what he does for the organization, not only as a person but on the field.”

More recently, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark took a look at the Phillies’ offseason decisions, writing this morning that other clubs don’t get the impression that the Phillies are willing to “go all out” to win a bidding war to retain Nola’s services. Some of that stems from the reportedly sizable gap the two parties faced in spring training. Some clubs feel the demand in Nola is substantial enough to push him to a seven-year contract, per Stark.

The Phillies ostensibly weren’t willing to go to that length (at least not at a premium annual value) back in spring, so at least logically speaking, there’s reason to doubt whether they’d be willing to do that now that Nola has pitched to a second pedestrian ERA in three seasons — albeit with still-pristine strikeout and walk rates and a big showing in the postseason.

Dombrowski was rather clear last week in asserting that the Phillies are only looking to add one starter. He stated in that MLBN appearance that if the Phils are able to re-sign Nola, their rotation will be “set.” The veteran baseball ops leader pointed to Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation, adding that his club very much likes lefty Cristopher Sanchez — understandably so. The 26-year-old southpaw logged a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, striking out 24.2% of his opponents against a brilliant 4% walk rate. Sanchez kept the ball on the ground at a terrific 57% clip as well.

While Nola may be the Phillies’ preference, bidding is expected to be competitive given his durability, command, ability to miss bats and his broader track record of run prevention. His ERA marks in 2021 and 2023 haven’t stood out, but teams regularly have demonstrated that they’re comfortable evaluating and projecting pitchers on far more than just their rudimentary earned run averages. Add in a perennially weak Phillies defense and homer-friendly home park, and it’s easy to see why other teams might be even more willing to take a pair of mid-4.00s from Nola with a grain of salt.

If Nola lands elsewhere, the Phillies will have to pursue other options, as Dombrowski alluded to. Longtime Phillies beat writer Jim Salisbury said in a radio appearance yesterday on WIP’s Midday Show that the Phils have “legitimate” interest in Yamamoto (Twitter link, with audio). They’re not connected to the 25-year-old NPB ace as frequently as other big-market clubs given the team’s general lack of success at luring star players from NPB and the KBO, but that shouldn’t expressly rule them out from making a winning bid and persuading Yamamoto to sign in Philadelphia, of course. Even teams with storied histories of signing NPB stars had to begin that track record at some point, after all.

One name not believed to be especially high on their list, per Stark, is that of likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Stark reports that the Phils are “lukewarm” on the lefty, though an eventual run at him could still take place if multiple preferred options land elsewhere.

It’s a similar story with closer Josh Hader, albeit for different reasons. While MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Monday the Phillies could be a match with Hader, Stark indicates that opposite, writing that the Phils prefer not to head into the season with a dedicated closer, which is surely a role that Hader will prioritize in free agency. He’s been exclusively a ninth-inning (or later) option for the Brewers and Padres in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t worked more than one inning in an appearance since Sept. 2019. Even if the Phillies love Hader — and presumably, just about every team loves him from a pure talent perspective — their preferred usage of him might not align with Hader’s own goals on the market.

Readers — Phillies fans in particular — will want to check out Stark’s column in full, as it contains multiple quotes from Dombrowski and plenty of context on the former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox front office leader’s tendencies in the offseason.

Agent Joel Wolfe Responds To Brian Cashman’s Comments On Giancarlo Stanton

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman held a fiery session with the media at last week’s GM Meetings in Arizona, speaking with a level of candor that’s not typical for himself nor for baseball operations leaders at large in today’s game. A fired-up Cashman at times took a combative tone, defending his organization’s processes, his scouts, his baseball operations personnel and his analysts — all while pushing back on the notion that the Yankees are driven primarily by data and analytics at the expense of conventional means of scouting and player evaluation.

Cashman wasn’t shy about acknowledging blame for the state of the Yankees’ 2023 roster. “We lost way too many games last year,” he said (video link via SNY). “…That’s my fault. I’m responsible as the baseball operations GM. If the owner wants to tag me out at any time, he clearly can do that.”

Among the many contributing factors to the Yankees’ playoff miss in 2023 was an unusually weak season from Giancarlo Stanton at the plate. Injuries are nothing new for the towering slugger, but Stanton’s .191/.275/.420 batting line was uncharacteristically feeble. Cashman plainly acknowledged as much during his broad-reaching address with the media.

“We’ve got to get Stanton up and running again,” the GM said (link via Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News). “He’s injury-prone. We all have lived and known that, but he’s never not hit when he’s playing, and this year is the first time that that’s happened. … We try to limit the time he’s down, but I’m not gonna tell you he’s gonna play every game next year because he’s not. He’s going to wind up getting hurt again more likely than not because it seems to be part of his game. But I know that when he’s right and healthy — other than this past year — the guy’s a great hitter and has been for awhile.”

Given Stanton’s frequent trips to the injured list, nothing Cashman said stands out as especially unfair. Certainly, it’s uncommon for any top baseball ops exec to speak so candidly, but with the possible exception of calling injuries “a part of [Stanton’s] game,” it was a fairly measured characterization of the situation. Cashman noted that Stanton himself has been frustrated by his injuries and declining mobility and has worked to get some answers. On multiple occasions, he referenced what a typically productive hitter Stanton has been.

Nonetheless, it seems at least part of Cashman’s comments struck a chord with Stanton or his representatives at Wasserman — likely the characterization that future injuries are an inevitability. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic spoke with agent Joel Wolfe about the surprisingly frank comments from Cashman.

“I read the context of the entire interview,” Wolfe tells Rosenthal. “I think it’s a good reminder for all free agents considering signing in New York, both foreign and domestic, that to play for this team you’ve got to be made of Teflon, both mentally and physically because you can never let your guard down — even in the offseason.”

Wolfe slipping the “both foreign and domestic” qualifier into his quote surely piques the interest of Yankee fans — and not in a good way. Wolfe is the agent for star Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will be posted for MLB clubs in the near future. The Yankees are known to have interest in signing Yamamoto, who will be one of the most sought-after players to ever make the jump from NPB to MLB. The 25-year-old ace has won NPB’s Cy Young equivalent, the Sawamura Award, in each of the past three seasons and just wrapped up a season that saw him log a 1.21 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

Understandably, Wolfe’s comments have created some angst among an already frustrated Yankee fan base that has been hoping for broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. It’s already clear that there won’t be any sweeping changes to the organizational hierarchy, and any instance that comes with the perceived possibility of hindering the chances of augmenting the roster aren’t well received.

That said, it still seems unlikely that the comments regarding Stanton will ultimately present any real impact on the team’s negotiations with Yamamoto. The expectation has been and should continue to be that the right-hander will sign for the best offer. Perhaps if the Yankees’ best offer is identical or only narrowly separated from a competitor, something along the lines of the Stanton/Wolfe comments can tip the scales away from the Yankees, but there are numerous small factors that can sway negotiations when things are that close.

It’s hard to envision a scenario where Yamamoto leaves an extra year or significant per-annum dollars on the table over Cashman’s candid comments regarding a player who’s not even Yamamoto’s own teammate at present. Yankee fans will surely point back to the comments from Cashman and Wolfe’s reply if Yamamoto lands elsewhere — and perhaps that’s the true motivation behind making them, to increase pressure on Cashman — but the Yamamoto bidding was always going to be fiercely competitive. In the grand scheme of determining factors for where Yamamoto lands, this seems like little more than a footnote. Nevertheless, it also offers a glimpse at why so many executives defer to boilerplate speak and generalities in media sessions like the one held by Cashman last week.

Yankees Notes: Nola, Yamamoto, Peralta, Bailey

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While hitting upgrades have dominated the Yankees’ offseason narrative to date, the team is certainly also keeping an eye on the pitching market, including some top-shelf names.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via X) writes that the “Yankees are among the most active teams” exploring pitchers thus far, with such names as Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on their list of targets.

The Yankees’ interest in Yamamoto is well known, and while Nola is a new face linked to the Bronx Bombers, it makes perfect sense why Nola would be of interest.  No opponent would relish facing Gerrit Cole and Nola in a short playoff series, and Nola’s durability would be a significant boost to a New York rotation that has some question marks heading into 2024.  Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were plagued by injuries last season, Clarke Schmidt has only one full season as a big league starter under his belt, and Michael King (who is being tapped to remain in the rotation) has even less experience as a starter.

If everyone is healthy and if King and Schmidt can pitch as well as they did in 2023, this could be one of baseball’s best rotations on paper.  However, signing Nola, Yamamoto, or another stabilizing force to the front end of the staff would both clear up some of the uncertainty, and perhaps allow the Bombers some more flexibility with their other offseason moves.  For instance, younger pitchers like Yoendrys Gomez or Randy Vasquez might become trade chips, or perhaps even Schmidt might be shopped to land a bat.  While King will be given every opportunity to stick as a starter, the Yankees would be more open to reinstalling him as a bullpen weapon if they were more comfortable with the rest of their rotation.

Of course, it should be noted that signing Rodon last winter was supposed to deepen the rotation, but Rodon was ineffective in the first year of his six-year, $162MM contract.  Rodon’s struggles won’t preclude New York from again spending big on a starter, though it might change the general focus of their search.  For instance, Nola has averaged just under 199 innings pitched in each of the last five full MLB seasons, so he has a much longer track record of good health and consistent success.

The Yankees’ pitching endeavors also reach to the bullpen, as Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports that the club has interest in re-signing Wandy Peralta, though the left-hander hasn’t yet been presented with a formal offer.  Peralta has a 2.82 ERA over 153 innings with the Yankees since being acquired in the Mike Tauchman trade with the Giants in April 2021, and he is among baseball’s best at keeping the ball on the ground with a 56.3% grounder rate over the last three seasons.  While a .256 BABIP has helped Peralta’s cause, he is also very good at limiting hard contact, making it easier for his fielders to handle any balls in play.

This grounder-heavy arsenal and a relative lack of strikeouts makes Peralta prone to outperforming his peripherals, though he took this to extremes in 2023.  Peralta’s 2.83 ERA and .293 xOBA were well below his 4.44 SIERA and .332 xwOBA, and his walk rate (which has usually been below average anyway) spiked to a dismal 13.2%.  It could just be a one-year blip that it probably won’t be enough to prevent Peralta from landing a multi-year free agent deal, yet it does serve as a potential red flag for suitors.  Since the Yankees know Peralta better than any other club, their continued interest is perhaps a sign that they don’t see the control issue as a long-term problem, or it could be the Yankees are just monitoring Peralta to see if he can be retained at a relative bargain price.

In some Yankees news off the field, Andrew Bailey interviewed with the team on Monday about the bench coach job, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.  Bailey is no stranger to the Bronx, as his eight seasons as a big league pitcher included a stint with the Yankees in 2015.  Formerly the Giants’ pitching coach for the last four seasons, Bailey is now out of contract and is known to be getting consideration from not just the Yankees as a bench coach, but also from the Orioles and Red Sox as a pitching coach candidate.  Sherman adds that the Marlins also have interest in Bailey as a pitching coach, and that Bailey “turned down an opportunity to be considered by the White Sox” for an unspecified role.

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