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Most Improved Free Agent Stock

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It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.

When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.

Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.

While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal.

Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.

First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.

Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.

This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Heyward, Cespedes, Greinke

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In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives.  All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players.  Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal.  I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract.  Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…

  • Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings.  His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years.  This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract.  Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
  • Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs.  Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes.  Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract.  All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
  • Zack Greinke’s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
  • In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors.  The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department.  Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
  • Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set.  Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
  • Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.  Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs.  “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said.  “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch.  He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.”  The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.

Cafardo’s Latest: Greinke, O’s, Renteria, BoSox

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo in the newest edition of his Sunday notes column…

  • Zack Greinke may not find anything longer than a five-year contract this winter, according to a Major League source.  Greinke turns 32 in October, so it’s understandable that teams would be wary about committing big money to a pitcher into his age-37 season, despite Greinke’s current outstanding numbers.  It’s not as if Greinke will be suffering for money if he takes the expected step of opting out of his Dodgers contract, as an NL general manager calls a five-year, $150MM deal as “a good starting point.”  That GM also predicts Greinke will ultimately remain with the Dodgers since they can afford his salary demands.
  • “Some believe there may be a breaking point between” Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter, though Cafardo notes it is “probably too early to call this one” a potential front office change in the making for the Orioles.  Last week, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported on some bad feelings within Baltimore’s front office, stemming from owner Peter Angelos’ refusal to let Duquette pursue the Blue Jays president’s job without compensation.
  • Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria could re-emerge as a managerial candidate this winter, with Cafardo speculating that the Marlins or Tigers could be fits.  Cafardo notes that Renteria was the finalist for the Tigers job before they hired Brad Ausmus, and that position could be open again if Ausmus is fired in the wake of Detroit’s disappointing season.
  • Joe Kelly has pitched very well over the last month but he may not have a spot in the Red Sox rotation next year, leading Cafardo to suggest that Kelly be converted into a closer if Koji Uehara can’t recover from his fractured wrist.  Cafardo sees the 2016 Boston rotation as Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley and a yet-to-be-acquired ace, though I’d argue that Miley’s spot is far from set in stone.  Plans could yet shift if the Sox move a starter in a trade, and Cafardo hears from an AL GM that Miley and Buchholz “would have value” if Boston shopped either starter.  (Presumably the Sox wouldn’t move a promising and controllable arm like Rodriguez, and Porcello’s big contract greatly limits his trade value.)

NL West Notes: Greinke, Dodgers, Tulo, Padres

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Dodgers president Stan Kasten told Jim Bowden of SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio (on Twitter) that he last spoke to Zack Greinke about his opt-out in the spring.  He says that the two sides are playing things out this season and will worry about Greinke’s contractual situation in the offseason.  Poised to hit the market as one of the top arms available, the 31-year-old hurler (32 this winter) may prefer to test his value rather than opt in with Los Angeles. Here’s a look at the NL West..

  • The Dodgers have some dead money on the books but Kasten says that he views it more as a short-term expense than a financial burden (link).  Those dollars, he says, are a “short-term expense for long-term gain.”
  • Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post isn’t so sure about the return the Rockies got for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  Colorado acquired three quality pitching prospects in Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco in the swap, but Colorado has a poor track record of developing pitchers.  If things do work out with Hoffman, however, he could be a significant rotation piece in 2017, when the Rockies might be able to make some noise.
  • The Padres will likely explore August trades but GM A.J. Preller might decide that the offseason is the better time to overhaul the roster, Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego writes.

Heyman’s Latest: Padres/Reds, Gausman, Cubs, Rox, Cespedes, Marlins

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In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports provides a laundry list of free agent and trade-related info. He kicks off the piece with a lengthy look at the curiously passive approaches of two teams that were seen as likely to be active sellers: the Reds and Padres. San Diego GM A.J. Preller told Heyman that his team discussed a number of deals and felt that, ultimately, the long-term nature of most of the Padres’ trade chips outweighed the value they were offered. The one notable exception is Justin Upton, who, as first reported by Buster Olney, could’ve fetched Michael Fulmer from the Mets. Regarding Upton talks, Preller told Heyman: “…the evaluation was what we’re being offered versus the value of the pick and having Justin for the rest of the year. There were offers right on the line, but none that made us move.” As for the Reds, Heyman notes that many are questioning the team’s decision to hang onto Aroldis Chapman, who is controlled through 2016, when the Reds may not be competitive until 2017. The Reds backed out of a Jay Bruce-for-Zack Wheeler swap, a source tells Heyman, with a second source telling him that Cincinnati simply “got cold feet” when it came to dealing Bruce. He also spoke to a number of executives who expressed disbelief that neither team was more active at the deadline.

Some more highlights from his column, though there’s far more in the full article than can be summarized here, so it’s worth reading in its entirety…

  • The Diamondbacks are still seeking an elite closer after coming up empty in their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman, and they might pursue him again this winter. Heyman lists their priorities as: a closer, a starting pitcher (someone below the tier of Johnny Cueto/David Price) and a bat to slot behind Paul Goldschmidt in the order. The Snakes talked about deals for Jeremy Hellickson, Oliver Perez and Cliff Pennington. They came the closest to trading Hellickson, who drew interest from the Pirates and Blue Jays, he adds.
  • Kevin Gausman’s name was very popular in trade talks with the Orioles, as he was asked for by the Rockies (in exchange for Carlos Gonzalez), the Tigers (Yoenis Cespedes) and Padres (Justin Upton). The Orioles also talked to the Dodgers about Carl Crawford (for a lesser package) but found his injury history and contract too risky.
  • Others are “convinced” that the Cubs will land one of the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, with Price as a leading candidate but Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Cueto all landing on Chicago’s radar as well. The Cubs are expected to shop both Starlin Castro and Javier Baez this winter. The Padres’ interest in Baez has been reported many places, though they do have some reservations about Baez’s approach at the plate (as, I would imagine, most teams do).
  • The Blue Jays, Astros and Giants all expressed interest in White Sox righty Jeff Samardzija, but the White Sox’ winning streak plus so-so offers led the team to hold onto the right-hander. Heyman hears that the return would’ve been similar to the one the Reds ultimately got in exchange for Mike Leake, so the Sox simply held onto Samardzija. (Speaking of Leake, he adds that industry consensus pegs Leake as the most likely rental to stay with his new club — perhaps not surprising given Leake’s ties to California and the Giants’ history of retaining such pieces.)
  • The Indians received interest not only in Carlos Carrasco, but also in Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber. The Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox all tried for Carrasco.
  • The Rockies were always more motivated to trade Troy Tulowitzki than Carlos Gonzalez, as the drama surrounding Tulo had become soap-opera-esque. The team didn’t shop Jose Reyes after the Tulo deal but did have his name come up in talks; Heyman writes that the Yankees are one club that “may have fit,” as they could’ve used him at second base.
  • The Angels made a brief run at Yoenis Cespedes but didn’t come close to landing him. Cespedes won the hearts of Mets fans in part by expressing an interest in signing long-term to remain in Queens, but as Heyman notes, Cespedes did the same in Boston and Detroit without any results. A long-term pact between the Mets and Cespedes is more likely than a reunion with the Tigers though, Heyman writes, as Detroit isn’t likely to enter a bidding war for the outfielder, let alone win one.
  • The Dodgers showed more interest in Cole Hamels than they did in either Price or Cueto. They were completely closed off to the idea of trading either Corey Seager or Julio Urias, though. He adds that right-hander Jose DeLeon wasn’t available in talks for rental pieces, which could imply that he was at least attainable in Hamels talks.
  • Dan Jennings is expected to be welcomed back to the Marlins’ front office this winter, when the team will search for a long-term manager to replace him. The Marlins are also planning on trying to extend Dee Gordon and Adeiny Hechavarria this offseason, he hears. Talks for Hechavarria went nowhere last winter, and the shortstop’s batting line is nearly identical to its 2014 mark. Defensive metrics are far more impressed with Hechavarria’s work this season, though, for what it’s worth.
  • While Rays relief aces Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger were oft-mentioned in rumors leading up to the deadline, other teams came away with the impression that Tampa Bay wasn’t that interested in moving either.
  • There’s an “unhappy scene” surrounding the Nationals and manager Matt Williams, Heyman hears. Williams isn’t beloved by many of the team’s players, who feel that he’s “not loose” and “never relaxed.” There are those who have also questioned his bullpen usage, from the decision not to use Drew Storen/Tyler Clippard in the final game of last year’s NLDS to leaving both Jonathan Papelbon and Storen in the bullpen in close road games versus the Mets shortly after acquiring Papelbon (only to have both pitch with a five-run deficit in the next series). Heyman spoke to one Nats player who said the team is loose and has fun regardless of Williams’ demeanor. “I don’t think it affects us,” said the player. “That’s just how he is.”

Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers/Hamels, Braves, Frazier, Price, Brewers, Upton

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off his weekly Inside Baseball column by reporting that the Dodgers have “quietly continued having dialogue with the Phillies” regarding Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are also giving serious consideration to the rental market and prioritizing Johnny Cueto over others among such targets. The Dodgers “appear determined” to land a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, writes Heyman, but most executives think they’ll hold onto top prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias. The Dodgers have a deep farm system beyond that pairing (righty Jose De Leon has recently been ranked a Top 25 prospect by Baseball America and ESPN), and one exec tells Heyman that the Phillies’ asking price on Hamels has become “more reasonable” recently. The Dodgers feel that Greinke is a lock to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and while they could possibly re-sign him by adding a year or two to the deal and upping his $24.5MM AAV, Hamels would provide insurance should Greinke sign elsewhere. Jeff Samardzija is also a consideration for the Dodgers, but while they like him, they consider him more of a No. 2/3 starter and don’t love him.

Some more highlights from Heyman’s article, though the synopsis won’t cover everything within the piece, so I’d highly recommend reading it in its entirety…

  • The Braves will be deadline sellers, Heyman hears, with Jim Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cameron Maybin among the players that will be available to interested teams. Chris Johnson, too, continues to be available, but there are no takers for his contract, which Atlanta has aggressively tried to move in the past.
  • With the Reds expected to trade so many veterans to other clubs, many in the industry expect the team to make a run at extending Todd Frazier beyond his current two-year deal, Heyman writes. (Frazier has one more year of arbitration following his current pact.) Jeff Todd and I have discussed Frazier’s situation on the MLBTR Podcast in the past (and will do so again this afternoon), and I’ve personally taken the stance that given the significant commitments to Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, the Reds could have a difficult time affording Frazier, whose 2014-15 breakout has hugely inflated his price tag. Given the lack of impact bats on the trade market, Frazier would net a king’s ransom and could rapidly expedite the rebuilding process, though the PR hit of trading him with so much control and on the heels of a Home Run Derby victory would of course be significant.
  • In other Reds news, Heyman hears Mike Leake’s ground-ball tendencies are appealing to AL East clubs, and he’s drawn interest from the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in addition to the Royals, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Giants. Manny Parra and Marlon Byrd are both “likely to go” as well.
  • Asked about the possibility of signing with the Cubs this offseason due to his relationship with skipper Joe Maddon, Tigers ace David Price replied, “Wherever I play baseball next year it’s not going to be because of a manager.”
  • The Astros are interested in both Cueto and Leake, and Houston seems willing to deal from its glut of MLB-ready outfield prospects, including Domingo Santana and Preston Tucker. (Previous reports have indicated they’re reluctant to part with Brett Phillips, however, who may be the best among the outfield bunch.)
  • The Brewers are now showing a willingness to trade both Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, Heyman hears. Though it was previously believed they were reluctant to move Segura, the emergence of Orlando Arcia (the younger brother of the Twins’ Oswaldo Arcia) may have changed Milwaukee’s thinking. However, Arcia himself is also drawing a huge amount of trade interest, and the Padres have called to express interest. One NL exec called him the best player he’s seen in the minors this year, while another comped him to Francisco Lindor, but said Arcia is better. Regarding Segura, Heyman hears that the Mets dislike his free-swinging approach.
  • The Twins aren’t closed off to the idea of re-acquiring Gomez from the Brewers, but their primary focus at this point is bullpen help.
  • The Mets are aiming high in their pursuit of an outfield bat and have both Gomez and Justin Upton on their radar. They’re not likely to add Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers unless they receive bad news on the prognosis of David Wright. They also have little interest in swinging a deal for Uribe.
  • Padres officials insist that they haven’t determined their course of action heading into the deadline, but Heyman writes that free-agents-to-be such as Upton, Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit and Will Venable could be traded regardless. James Shields’ backloaded contract limits his value, but one GM felt Benoit has “big value” and Heyman notes that Craig Kimbrel would be in huge demand as well, should the Padres try to recoup some value from that deal.
  • Cueto, Samardzija and Leake are atop the Blue Jays’ wish list, and the team was also in talks with the Braves regarding Jason Grilli prior to his season-ending injury. A top starting pitcher is Toronto’s top priority at this point, says Heyman. He also adds that there’s no evidence to suggest that manager John Gibbons is on the hot seat.

NL West Notes: Frias, Giants, Maybin, Parra, Greinke, Gray

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The Dodgers’ search for pitching may only intensify with the news that Carlos Frias has been placed on the 15-day DL with lower back tightness.  Los Angeles already dipped into its starter depth by installing Frias and Mike Bolsinger into the rotation in place of Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, so all eyes will be on the Dodgers this month to see if they can land another big arm before the trade deadline.  Here’s the latest from the NL West…

  • The Giants are looking for outfielders and Gerardo Parra and Cameron Maybin are two of the names who have been discussed, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter).  In another tweet, Olney notes that the Braves aren’t open to dealing Maybin right now.  Outfield had been cited as a possible target spot for San Francisco, though GM Bobby Evans didn’t seem set on obtaining an everyday outfielder since Hunter Pence and Nori Aoki will be expected to resume their regular spots in the lineup when they’re both healthy.  In my opinion, I’d think that a left-handed hitting outfielder like Parra could be of particular use in a center field platoon with Angel Pagan, who has struggled badly against right-handed pitching this season (though Pagan has generally fared better against righty arms over his career).
  • The Giants have liked Parra “forever,” according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (via Twitter).  Parra had spent his entire career prior to August 2014 with the Diamondbacks, however, and Arizona didn’t want to deal the outfielder to a division rival.
  • In Olney’s latest Insider-only post, he observes that Zack Greinke’s big season is putting him in position for a massive free agent payday this winter.  “It seems like a foregone conclusion” Greinke will opt out of his Dodgers contract in search of a more lucrative deal, and while he turns 32 in October, Olney believes he’s the type of pitcher with the athleticism, mechanics and pitching know-how to still be very effective as he ages.  Andrew Friedman has generally eschewed giving big contracts to older players in his career as an executive, though this could well change now that he runs a high-payroll team.
  • The Rockies are again in need of pitching reinforcements, and Nick Groke of the Denver Post wonders if the team could promote top prospect Jon Gray.  Troy Tulowitzki and Walt Weiss seem in favor of Gray coming to the bigs soon, though GM Jeff Bridich was more cautious.  “Jon Gray is doing a great job right now of learning lessons and evolving at the Triple-A level.  So there are things that he needs to do and will continue to do. And we’ll continue to exercise patience with him,” Bridich said.  Gray has a 4.88 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and a 2.45 K/BB rate in 90 1/3 Triple-A innings this season — respectable numbers in the very hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Dodgers Notes: Seager, Rollins, Greinke

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While some Yankees fans are licking their chops over the prospect of Bryce Harper coming to the Bronx after the 2018 season,  Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times believes that the Dodgers have a better chance to sign the outfielder.  Of course, other teams, including the incumbent Nationals, will have something to say about all of that.  Here’s today’s look at the Dodgers..

  • Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins is struggling at the plate but that doesn’t mean that we’ll be seeing top prospect Corey Seager right away, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said the team will promote Seager when he is ready, not because Rollins is underperforming.  “We feel like he’s in a really good place to be a really good major league player for a long time, but when that is will be determined by when he’s ready to do it, when we feel like it will put him in the best position to be as good as he can be as quickly as he can be,” Friedman said.   Seager was rated as the No. 5 prospect in the country heading into the 2015 season by Baseball America.  All of the other prospects ranked ahead of Seager have been promoted already.
  • The Dodgers aren’t doing much to entice Zack Greinke to stay, Mark Saxon of ESPN.com writes.  Greinke has been vocal about his lack of run support this season as he continues to lose despite strong pitching.  Greinke, of course, has the right to opt out of his contract following this season.  If he doesn’t opt out, Greinke will be in line to earn $78MM over the remaining three years. Through 13 starts this season, the 31-year-old owns a 1.95 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers are eschewing traditional batting statistics to try and ascertain the true value of hitters, as Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register writes.   For example, outfielder Scott Schebler appeared to be struggling early on in the year with Triple-A Oklahoma.  However, new Dodgers director of player development Gabe  Kapler presented Schebler a pack of data showing him that he wasn’t so much struggling as he was getting unlucky.  Several other players who spoke with Moura confirmed that the Dodgers aren’t getting hung up on batting average as they’re focusing more on the “real indicators” of performance.

Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Astros, Hinch, Greinke

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CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman touched on many topics in his latest “Inside Baseball” column, and since we’ve already focused on Heyman’s notes about the Brewers, let’s look at some of his other hot stove info from around the league…

  • The Astros will be looking to add one or even two starting pitchers, though Cole Hamels is “too pricey” for them, according to one team source.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored the case for Houston going after the Phillies southpaw, and 42.44% of MLBTR readers polled thought that the Astros should indeed pursue Hamels.
  • Rival executives aren’t bothered by Hamels’ sub-par performance this season since all of this trade speculation is assumed to be impacting his work.  Executives “seem to be split on” whether the Phillies are making the right move in holding out for a blue chip prospect or two in exchange for Hamels, or if they should just be looking to get his big salary off the books for a lower return of young talent.
  • A.J. Hinch’s deal with the Astros is a three-year contract with a club option for 2018.  The exact dollar figure isn’t known but Heyman reports that the average annual value is less than $1MM, which could end up being a bargain given how Houston has thus far played under Hinch’s management.
  • While Zack Greinke is expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, Heyman doubts he’ll leave the Dodgers since they certainly have the money to sign him to a new deal.
  • One scout suggests that Javier Baez might need “a change of scenery” to get back on track.  Baez struck out a whopping 95 times in 229 plate appearances with the Cubs last season, and only has a .755 OPS at the Triple-A level this year.  Baez is only a year removed from being considered an elite-level prospect, so while it seems early to consider trading him, Chicago is already deep in young middle infield talent.
  • The Rangers are willing to deal Shin-Soo Choo, rival executives believe.  This is no surprise given Choo’s huge contract and underwhelming performance in Texas, though obviously those same issues will make dealing him a tall order.  Heyman notes that the Yankees were interested in Choo when he was a free agent two winters ago, though even if Choo turns it around, I’m not sure I see New York taking on a big contract when they already have a pretty full outfield.
  • The Cardinals “will rue the day they made that trade” of Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jorden Walden, in the words of one scout.  Heyman feels this is a bit of a stretch, even though Miller has been outstanding for the Braves and Heyward has struggled for the Cards (and Walden is on the DL).
  • Veteran Andruw Jones isn’t yet planning to retire, though he won’t play in 2015.  Jones has played in Japan for the last two seasons and expressed interest in a return to Major League Baseball this winter, drawing interest from at least two teams, including the Indians.  According to Heyman, Jones turned down minor league contract offers from multiple teams.

West Notes: Dodgers, Solis, Padres, Montero

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The Dodgers acquisition of Brandon Beachy could lead to a trade, writes Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Beachy will open the season on the disabled list, so his presence could be purely for depth purposes. However, if everybody is healthy when he’s ready to contribute, the team could consider dealing Zack Greinke or Hyun-jin Ryu. Greinke may opt out after the season which could make him expendable. A trade of Ryu seems unlikely since he can void his contract if dealt (via Twitter). Here’s more from out west.

  • The Dodgers and catcher Ali Solis have split ways over a contractual issue, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Details are unknown at this time. Solis was a non-roster invite to the big league camp. He’s appeared briefly with the Padres and Rays, accruing 11 plate appearances in the process. He’s a career .243/.291/.363 hitter over his nine season minor league career.
  • Padres pitchers Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow are familiar with rapid rebuilds, writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Both players were with the Blue Jays in 2013 when they were picked to win the division. The team fizzled and finished last in the AL East. Johnson also experienced the 2012 rebuild of the Marlins. Both players point to chemistry and cohesiveness as an important missing element. Only time will tell if the Padres can bond together.
  • Every team has a player in the best shape of his life. One such to watch may be Mariners slugger Jesus Montero, writes Tim Brown of Yahoo. The once-prospect dropped 45 pounds from the hefty 275 he weighed last spring. Per manager Lloyd McClendon, “I think he’s in a much better place as a human being…The baseball skills, we’ll see.”
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