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Royals Claim Conner Greene, Designate Burch Smith For Assignment

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The Royals announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Conner Greene off waivers from the Cardinals. He’d been designated for assignment last week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Kansas City designated righty Burch Smith for assignment.

Greene, 23, was acquired alongside Dominic Leone in last offseason’s Randal Grichuk trade. The former seventh-round pick’s longstanding control issues didn’t improve in his lone season with the Cards, as Greene walked 63 batters in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He hasn’t had much success in the minors since the 2016 season, but the Royals will hope that another change of scenery brings about more favorable results in 2019.

The 28-year-old Smith was one of two Rule 5 picks carried on the roster by the Royals for the entire 2018 season, but his results paled in comparison to those of fellow Rule 5-er Brad Keller. In 78 innings, Smith limped to a 6.92 ERA, and while he averaged nearly a strikeout per inning, he also averaged 4.6 walks per nine innings pitched. Smith’s ability to miss bats has long been intriguing, but his career has been slowed by control issues and injury troubles — most notably Tommy John surgery.

Latest On Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke

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The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.

It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.

Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.

Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.

While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.

It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.

It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.

He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.

Cardinals Notes: Goldschmidt, Outfield, Bader

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The Cardinals, who in the past two seasons alone have jettisoned a near roster’s worth of offensive talent, are still searching for a reliable middle-of-the-order presence, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  On the back of landmark drafts under the direction of former Scouting Directors Jeff Luhnow and the now-imprisoned Chris Correa, St. Louis, by the middle of the decade, found themselves dripping with projected regulars across the diamond.  Though a trimming of the surplus was surely in order, the current offensive version of the Senior Circuit’s most distinguished franchise is still left, aside from the ever-reliable bat of corner infielder Matt Carpenter, without its coveted level of thump.  Franchise officials, at this juncture, could be lamenting the ’18 dumpings of Tommy Pham (.343/.448/.622 after a midseason trade to the Rays) and Luke Voit (187 wRC+ with the Yankees), but seem to have a number of potential targets in mind as the offseason approaches its zenith.

  • The club “has spoken” with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, says Goold, though the 31-year-old might be a disjointed fit on an already-unbalanced roster.  The club’s second-best hitter in 2018, by a wide margin, was former minor league journeyman Jose Martinez, whose recent forays in the outfield have been mostly disastrous.  Goldschmidt, for his part, hasn’t played a single inning at a position other than first base in his MLB career thus far, and the club’s corner-outfield spots are already manned by high-profile acquisitions in Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom is owed nearly $48MM over the next three seasons.  Former top-40 prospect Tyler O’Neill, who showed promise, if an undiscerning eye, last season, is also in the mix, though the club could certainly dangle one (or perhaps two) of the four to make a room for the all-world bat of the six-time All-Star.
  • Once the envy of executives across the league, the Redbird farm has thinned considerably in recent seasons, though it’s continued its longstanding tradition of churning out under-the-radar performers.  Ben Frederickson, also of the StL Post-Dispatch, offers a wonderful overview of former third-round pick Harrison Bader, who broke out to the tune of 3.5 fWAR on the back of sterling center-field defense this season.  Quotes from team president Bill DeWitt III aggressively paint the 24-year-old as an “emerging star,” though caution should certainly reign in the case of the University of Florida product.  Bader, after all, did struggle in consecutive AAA stints in 2016 and ’17, and posted just a .251/.317/.378 line against right-handers last season while whiffing in over 31% of his plate appearances.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals

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Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago.  Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.

  • Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.

Royals Hire Mike Matheny As Special Advisor

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The Royals announced that they’ve hired former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny as a special advisor to the team’s player development staff St. Louis fired Matheny in July despite the fact that he was signed through the 2020 season.

“This is a great opportunity to have Mike become a member of our organization,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore in a statement announcing the move. “It has always been our policy to hire the best baseball people we can and this is a perfect example of that. Mike has contributed so much to our game as both a player and a manager and has a wealth of knowledge that can only make us better. I’m excited about the possibilities of what he’ll bring to our organization.”

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch linked the Royals to Matheny back in August, and several reports since that time have suggested that he could end up with the Kansas City organization in an advisory capacity. He’ll now join Moore and have a bit of a hand in scouting and player development efforts.

While there’s no firm indication that Matheny will be considered for managerial openings in Kansas City down the line, Goold did note in the aforementioned report that Matheny would like to manage again, and it’s worth noting that current skipper Ned Yost is only signed through the 2019 season. Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggested last month that the 2019 season could be Yost’s final as a manager, and Yost himself has hinted at a similar timeline in the past.

Certainly, there’ll be speculation about the possibility of Matheny being groomed as a successor to Yost — as was the case with Brad Ausmus after he was hired by the Angels in a similar capacity last winter — though that’s hardly a foregone conclusion. The Reds, for instance, added John Farrell to their front office last offseason, and while he was indeed considered for their managerial vacancy, that post eventually went to David Bell.

Trade & Free Agent Rumors: Dodgers, Indians, Phils, Harvey, Goldschmidt, Brantley

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Always active on the offseason trade market, the Dodgers have been having “lots” of discussions with the Indians regarding a variety of potential scenarios, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Los Angeles unsurprisingly is intrigued by Cleveland’s pitching — as all teams would be — and Rosenthal notes that catcher Yan Gomes could make sense there as well. Conversely, Cleveland has a significant need in the outfield — an area of depth for Los Angeles. There’s no indication that there’s anything especially close to fruition between the two sides, and Rosenthal even notes that both clubs are chatting with several other teams. The Dodgers, for instance, are one of the many clubs with interest in Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

Some more chatter on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Carlos Santana’s name has come up on the rumor mill early in the offseason, but Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies also have relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter “on the block.” Reports since the team’s late-season collapse have indicated that the Phillies will be open to trading just about any player other than Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, so it’s only reasonable that they’d be open to moving either relatively high-priced setup man. Neshek is owed $7.75MM and has a $750K buyout on an option for the 2020 season, while Hunter is owed $9MM and will be a free agent next offseason.
  • Heyman also tweets that in addition to the Reds, Matt Harvey is drawing some level of interest from the Athletics. Cincinnati’s interest in Harvey has been well-documented, as he won over some decision-makers in the organization during his four-month run with the Reds. As for Oakland, their search for rotation help is no secret. It’s unlikely that the cost-conscious A’s will be players for the highest-priced options on the free-agent market, making second- and third-tier options
  • The Twins checked in on Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though the report describes the talks as “preliminary.” While Minnesota has an obvious opening at first base following the retirement of Joe Mauer, though, Dan Hayes of The Athletic downplays the possibility of a Goldschmidt pursuit for Minnesota (Twitter link); Hayes notes that the Twins did make some form of inquiry but adds that this “doesn’t appear to be a path the Twins will go down.” The fit is obvious, but Arizona’s asking price on the perennial MVP candidate will be quite high, and he’s a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Morosi also tweets that the Cardinals have “maintain[ed] interest” in free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests (via Twitter) that Brantley isn’t a top priority for St. Louis. Per Goold, the Cards would need to miss out on more preferable targets and perhaps move other pieces of the roster before embarking on a legitimate pursuit of the 31-year-old. Brantley is coming off a strong season in which he hit .309/.364/.468 with 17 homers, 36 doubles and 12 steals, but the Cards do have in-house alternatives and are known to be looking at bigger fish (i.e. Bryce Harper).

Latest On Manny Machado & Bryce Harper

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As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, in a general encapsulation of the state of play in the current free agent market, there’s still not much clarity regarding superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Perhaps, as Kepner suggests, with the two belles of the ball still waiting to find a dance partner, the rest of the participants are still milling about, afraid to commit.

Of course, the market is also operating in the shadow of last winter’s dud of a dance, so the factors influencing the secondary tiers of free agency could reflect broader changes mostly unrelated to Machado and Harper. Whether the matchmaking process will be as slow as it was last year remains to be seen; the more interesting question, though, is simply whether there’ll be more money out there for the good-but-not-great players available. As for Machado and Harper, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be paid handsomely.

It’s interesting, though perhaps not surprising, that the conversation thus far has mostly focused on Harper. As Kepner notes, Harper’s gunslinging agent Scott Boras is selling Harper to suitors as an “iconic” and uniquely marketable player. The ever-visible Boras is, of course, also making that same pitch in very public fashion to and through the media. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, has negotiated some monster deals of his own, so he’s no amateur. Clearly, though, he is not pursuing the sort of media strategy that Boras is.

The differences in the agents’ approaches are perhaps in some part reflections of genuine personality differences in their respective clients. While he hardly carries any kind of reputation for off-field antics, Harper seems to be enjoying his time in the spotlight, playfully dropping hints on social media and an assuredly unscripted TMZ spot. (Did you know: Harper’s dog is still named Wrigley and he quite likes deep dish!)

Machado, meanwhile, has been more or less off the radar entirely — leaving many to hem and haw over the generally distasteful impression he left during the World Series. In an interview published this morning by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Machado has perhaps launched his effort at shifting the narrative somewhat. The 26-year-old casts himself as a humble, hard-working player who shows up every day and cares about winning — which, generally, was his reputation both in and out of baseball circles prior to the recent shift.

Of course, the change in public perception — one that was likely not fully embraced by those that have known him in person for years — was a self-inflicted wound caused by Machado’s cringeworthy comments on hustling as well as some highly questionable on-field actions. Machado says he accepts the blame for how his words came across, but explains: “I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.”

Machado unsurprisingly declines to divulge any details about his thinking on an ultimate destination. Generally, he suggests to Feinsand that he’s open to any and all suitors. And he says he won’t do anything to make the process a more-publicized one than it already promises to be. “When the time comes,” Machado says, “there will probably be a few of the teams that I will sit down with in person, but it’s not something I plan on being very public about.” There’s plenty more to digest from his chat with Feinsand, which is a must-read piece, though Machado surely will still have plenty to answer to when he sits down with team owners who are considering committing hundreds of millions of dollars to employ him.

Generally, the final dollar tallies these two excellent young players will command will be the result of an auction process, the course of which will be determined by the quantity and intensity of team owners waving bidding paddles from the gallery. We don’t yet have a firm sense of the field of Machado bidders, but the rough contours of Harper’s market are beginning to emerge. Notably, it seems he may have two more interesting potential suitors.

It won’t surprise anyone to hear the Cardinals and Braves mentioned as possibilities, as they’ve both long been discussed as teams to keep an eye on. But it’s still notable to see some increasing evidence of real involvement. The owner of the St. Louis franchise, Bill DeWitt III, tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that a move for a top-tier free agent is on the table — though he doesn’t necessarily do so in terms that suggest it’s the likeliest outcome. “We could do it, sure,” says DeWitt. “It’s about (considering) putting all our eggs in one basket. We have the payroll room.” 

As for the Atlanta organization, which is owned by a corporate entity (Liberty Media) that is theoretically less likely to be swayed by emotion, it remains a bit difficult to gauge the true level of interest. But David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that he’s getting signs the Braves will be “players in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.” Whether or not the club will turn into a front-runner, let alone land Harper, is obviously still unclear. But it seems fair to presume that the involvement of multiple, serious suitors increases the likelihood that Boras (or, for Machado, Lozano) will be able to convince one team to enter a new contract stratosphere of the kind MLBTR predicted in its ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Cardinals Designate Conner Greene, Derian Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves in advance of tonight’s deadline to set 40-man rosters before next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Lefty Genesis Cabrera, right-hander Ryan Helsley, outfielder Lane Thomas and infielder Ramon Urias have all had their contracts selected and been added to the 40-man roster. In order to clear the two spots necessary to accommodate that quartet, the Cards designated right-handers Conner Greene and Derian Gonzalez for assignment.

Greene, 23, was acquired alongside Dominic Leone in last offseason’s Randal Grichuk trade. The former seventh-round pick’s longstanding control issues didn’t improve in his lone season with the Cards, as Greene walked 63 batters in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. As for the 23-year-old Gonzalez, he pitched to a 3.51 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB.9 across three levels in 33 1/3 innings during an injury-shortened 2018 season.

The 22-year-old Cabrera was one of the key pieces acquired in the summer trade sending Tommy Pham to the Rays and was a lock to be added to the roster today, though he could still be a year away from contributing in the big leagues.. Helsley, 24, is a former fifth-round pick who’s posted impressive strikeout totals in the upper minors and likely isn’t far from a look in the Majors. Thomas, too, is an upper-minors piece who could emerge as an option in the relatively near future after hitting .264/.333/.489 between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. Urias, 24, hit .300/.356/.516 in 90 games between Double-A and Triple-A this past season.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a thrilling season on the whole, but a tumultuous roller coaster ride bookended by significant winning and losing streaks ultimately ended on a low note as they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. That’s a lengthy drought by their standards, as fans hadn’t yet been forced to endure such a streak during the new millenium.

On the one hand, the club has a formidable crew under team control for 2019, including several franchise mainstays, and can expect a reasonable degree of improvement from its wealth of young talent. On the other hand, its veteran core includes eight players over 30 years of age (six are at least 32), and they could be facing some decline in production and/or injury risk from many members of that group. The club’s front office will surely be taking a slew of complex factors into account as they try to put together a contender for 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart |St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Outlook]

Even after a relatively quiet trade deadline, the Cardinals surged to the forefront of the NL Central race with a torrid August that saw them go 22-6. But a mediocre 12-15 September cost them a chance to compete in the 2018 playoffs, proving that even the surprising midseason replacement of longtime manager Mike Matheny wasn’t enough to flip the club’s fate after a middling 47-46 start to the season. After three consecutive years of seeing their season end with game number 162, the perennially successful Cardinals organization could be facing a sense of urgency to right the ship and get back to October in order to satiate the fan base.

It’s difficult to tell where that process begins. While the team is loaded with fan favorites and high-caliber players in every area of the roster, they’re also staring down one or more significant question marks in their rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield. With their current construction, they’ve got an obviously good team. Unfortunately that’s not likely to cut the mustard in a division where they’re likely to face stiff competition from the Cubs and the now-soaring Brewers, both of whom have younger cores.

One of the simplest avenues would be to add several wins in one fell swoop, by paying for one of the market’s elite talents. The Cardinals have been connected to Bryce Harper this offseason, and have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for Manny Machado as well. Either would fit easily into the club’s puzzle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend big on a marquee free agent after being putting in strong bids for Jason Heyward and David Price in offseasons past. It’s also worth pointing out that they worked out a deal to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last season before the slugger used his no-trade clause to veto the move to St. Louis. While any realistic offer to add one of the market’s two biggest prizes would surely dwarf any of the three aforementioned contract sums, the Redbirds’ involvement serves as an indicator that adding a superstar bat lies within the realm of possibility.

But the market for both Harper and Machado comes with strong competition, so we can easily assume that the Cards are exploring several contingency plans. For example, the club will likely be motivated to make an upgrade at the hot corner if Machado lands elsewhere. Carpenter is aging and probably profiles best at first base at this point in his career, and Josh Donaldson might be a fitting target after previous reports of interest from St. Louis. Even Mike Moustakas could serve as an interesting add. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees could explore the market for Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar in order to address their rotation, though it’s questionable whether the Cards would have any interest in giving up the type of young arm necessary to get a deal done. (Last night’s trade of James Paxton to the Yankees could also shift New York’s focus from the trade market to free agency for their remaining rotation needs.)

Turning an eye to the outfield, St. Louis may have in-house alternatives to signing Harper, should they lose out in that auction. Rookie Harrison Bader certainly earned a foothold on the center field job, and Ozuna is a lock to hold down left field. While Harper’s presence in right would make for a formidable outfield alignment, Fowler probably can’t be counted out as dead weight after a single horrendous season. Beyond him, the club has former top prospect Tyler O’Neill champing at the bit to follow up on a promising debut.

Absent from that list of in-house options is slugger Jose Martinez, who had an excellent offensive showing but proved to be an outright defensive liability. With that in mind, it seems unlikely he’ll be a part of their outfield plans come springtime (though the possibility shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, either), and his performance at first base even begs questions about whether his glove can be relied upon at all. Overall, the returns on playing him were positive; he yielded an above-average fWAR figure thanks to his excellent contact and on-base skills coupled with above-average power. But if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, they could look to explore shopping the slugger to American League team that might value him a bit more highly thanks to the ability to protect him from being entirely exposed defensively. There’d certainly be a number of suitors.

The bullpen is perhaps the Cardinals’ most glaring area of concern. A number of statistical shortcomings (including the second-highest walk rate of any ’pen in the game) led to a -4.54 WPA figure that would have stood as the worst in all of baseball save for the disastrous showing by a largely inexperienced Marlins relief corps. Norris, who held down the closer role for most of the season and was their bullpen’s most consistent fixture, is set to depart as a free agent. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll probably find it necessary to find at least one viable alternative on the free agent market.

Make no mistake, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be desperate to find anyone with closer experience. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak has said the Cardinals believe flamethrowing righty Jordan Hicks could succeed in that role (though as always that could simply be a negotiating technique), but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually have the job on opening day. The market is littered with former closers (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera), but it’s not difficult to imagine them instead rolling with Hicks and adding an upside lefty like Andrew Miller or Zach Britton. Speculation on specific names aside, it seems inevitable that the bullpen is an area to which they’ll allocate at least some money.

It’s worth noting that St. Louis will almost inevitably see some positive regression in relief performance, too. It’s more likely that Brett Cecil will rebound somewhat than that he’ll endure another career-low performance. Likewise, it’s improbable that the usually-durable Luke Gregerson will spend such an excessive amount of time on the DL. They won’t have Greg Holland walking nearly eight batters per nine innings across half a season’s worth of work, while Sam Tuivailala and Tyler Lyons represent other possible instances of addition by subtraction. Meanwhile John Brebbia, Dominic Leone and Dakota Hudson all had encouraging showings. In other words, while the Cardinals have some work to do in order to cover high-leverage innings, their situation isn’t quite as eyebrow-raising as a team like the Indians, for example.

Martinez, Wacha, Mikolas and rookie sensation Jack Flaherty seem like good bets to return to the rotation for 2019, while Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Adam Wainwright all in the mix for starts as well depending on health and performance. There’s room for improvement in their rotation, but it’s also not a bad cast overall; certainly other contenders are facing more daunting rotation questions. The situation gets murkier beyond 2019, though, as the contracts of Wacha, Mikolas and Wainwright all expire at season’s end. For that reason, we could see the Redbirds check in on free agents or trade targets whom they could keep in the fold for multiple seasons beyond the next. There’s no real urgency to do so, but there could easily be motivation given the right price and player.

The Cardinals are also an organization known for locking up many of their young players pre-arbitration, and this spring could present many opportunities to do just that. A wave of young players impressed last season, and the ever-opportunistic Cardinals brass could look to capitalize on the chance on some early extensions. Flaherty, Hicks, Bader and O’Neill could represent a strong core for years to come, and gaining additional control and cost-certainty over some of that group could allow the Cardinals to feel secure as some of their older veterans depart or retire in the near future.

Whatever path the Cardinals take this offseason, it seems unlikely to be a quiet one. With motivation to end an unusually long playoff drought, the organization will want to set new manager Mike Shildt up for success. They’ve got money to spend, a reasonable amount of prospect capital, and just enough positional flexibility on the roster to allow them to fit the right player into the picture if the opportunity arises. That should present a comfortable cavalcade of potential strategies to one simple end: add enough wins to remain competitive with a pair of formidable divisional opponents.

Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.
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