Progress Report: Last Winter’s 6 Highest-Paid Relievers
The Cubs made a rare June free-agent splash Wednesday when they agreed to a three-year, $43MM contract with potential Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel. The 31-year-old entered the offseason as the premier reliever available, but interest in Kimbrel was surprisingly tepid and he wound up having to wait seven months for a contract. Kimbrel still hauled in the richest deal of any reliever going back to the opening of free agency last offseason, though that doesn’t make him a lock to thrive as a Cub.
As you’ll see below, all six accomplished relievers who collected at least $20MM over the winter have shown some troubling signs a couple months into the 2019 campaign. Although it’s way too early to pass judgment in any of these cases, it doesn’t augur well when a player’s not performing as expected at the start of his deal. After all, that’s when he’s supposed to be providing his team maximum value.
Zack Britton, LHP, Yankees (three years, $39MM):
Arguably the game’s foremost reliever with the Orioles from 2014-16, injuries helped lead to a bit of a drop-off for Britton over the ensuing two seasons with the O’s and Yankees. That didn’t stop New York from re-signing Britton on the costliest pact any reliever received in the offseason, though, and he has handed them solid results in Year 1 of the contract. The 31-year-old owns a 2.96 ERA/3.60 FIP in 27 1/3 innings thus far. The sinker-throwing Britton’s tremendous groundball rate (75 percent) is right in line with his recent totals, and he’s generating more strikeouts and issuing fewer walks than he did a year ago. On the negative side, the home run woes that began plaguing Britton in 2018 have stuck around. He’s yielding HRs on 25 percent of fly balls for the second straight season.
Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (three years, $30MM):
Familia surrendered three earned runs in 2/3 of an inning last Saturday and then sat for almost a week before taking the mound again Thursday. The previously reliable righty, who dealt with shoulder troubles earlier in the season, has now logged a horrid 6.29 ERA/5.26 FIP in 23 1/3 frames. A significant drop in strikeouts and swinging strikes and a sizable spike in walks and homers haven’t helped, though Familia’s inducing plenty of grounders and continuing to throw in the 96 mph range. The 29-year-old’s batting average on balls in play against (.338), strand rate (66.2), and enormous gap between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.383/.321) indicate he has deserved better. However, it’s doubtful any of that is of much consolation to him or the Mets at this point.
Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals (two years, $25MM):
While Miller was a dominant force with the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees and Indians from 2012-17, he endured an injury-limited, down year with the Tribe in ’18 and still hasn’t returned to form. The towering southpaw has given the Cardinals 20 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/5.48 FIP since scoring his contract. Miller is striking out upward of 12 hitters per nine, but he’s walking more than four at the same time (remember, his BB/9 was barely over 1.00 as recently as 2016). The 34-year-old has also already yielded almost as many HRs (five) as he did in 2017-18 combined (six). The good news is that Miller has allowed a mere two earned runs since April 27.
Adam Ottavino, RHP, Yankees (three years, $25MM):
Ottavino’s preventing runs at an elite clip through 28 1/3 frames as a Yankee, having posted a 1.27 ERA so far. However, there are some red flags with the ex-Rockie’s performance. Ottavino’s strikeout, swinging-strike, walk, chase and contact rates have gone in discouraging directions since last season, while his 96.4 percent strand rate isn’t going to hold. There’s not a huge difference between the wOBA (.264) and xwOBA (.276) hitters have mustered against the slider-reliant 33-year-old this season, but both numbers fall short of Ottavino’s .231/.233 combo from 2018.
Joe Kelly, RHP, Dodgers (three years, $25MM):
The flamethrowing Kelly has allowed at least two earned runs in five of 20 appearances, giving him an unsightly 7.91 ERA/5.18 FIP across 19 1/3 innings this season. Kelly’s walks and grounders have trended well thus far, but he has already allowed as many home runs (four) as he did last season – his final year with the Red Sox. The 30-year-old has also seen his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 3 percent and his contact rate climb by a hefty 8 percent since 2018.
David Robertson, RHP, Phillies (two years, $23MM):
Robertson entered 2019 as one of the best, most durable relievers in recent memory, yet he has been neither effective nor healthy in the first season of his contract. The 34-year-old coughed up four earned runs on eight hits and six walks (against six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings before going to the 10-day injured list April 16 with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Robertson moved to the 60-day IL on May 25, meaning he won’t return until at least midway through this month.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Braves Reportedly Emerge As Favorites For Dallas Keuchel
7:05pm: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Braves and Keuchel are in “serious talks.” There’s “some thought” that the Braves are willing to offer multiple years to Keuchel, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Earlier this morning, the New York Post’s George A. King III reported that Keuchel did indeed have teams willing to push their offer to the multi-year deal range, whereas the Yankees were still set on limiting any offer to one year.
2:18pm: The Braves have emerged as the “frontrunners” to sign free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Yankees have been prominently connected to the southpaw since the draft-pick compensation tied to him expired on Monday, but Atlanta has long been mentioned as a potential landing spot as well. Feinsand notes that the Yankees are still in the mix, but Atlanta has recently stepped up its efforts.
Earlier today, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the Yankees were also facing some degree of competition from the Cardinals. He, too, listed the Braves as a potential factor in the Keuchel market, along with the Twins, though Minnesota’s interest has yet to be characterized as particularly serious.
For the Braves, Keuchel would help to stabilize a rotation that is enjoying strong performances from high-upside young pitchers who are likely to eventually face some type of workload restrictions (e.g. Mike Soroka, Max Fried). Beyond that excellent pairing, the starting pitching hasn’t panned out as hoped in Atlanta so far this season. Mike Foltynewicz missed the first month of the season and hasn’t performed well since returning (today’s quality outing notwithstanding). Lefty Sean Newcomb was demoted to Triple-A early in the season due to significant control issues, and he’s come back as a reliever. Righty Kevin Gausman has an ERA north of 6.00 through a dozen starts. Of the Braves’ starters, Julio Teheran has been the most effective holdover, but there’s certainly room to add another veteran to the mix to help smooth things over.
Unlike fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, Keuchel has been reported to be more amenable to the concept of a one-year contract. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote earlier this week that agent Scott Boras has discussed some multi-year scenarios that would contain an opt-out after the current season, but a straight one-year pact would be less complicated and more palatable for a signing team. Braves leadership has previously spoken about payroll flexibility, though the exact level of financial resources Liberty Media is willing to provide to general manager Alex Anthopoulos is, of course, anyone’s guess.
Any one-year deal signed by Keuchel would come with a prorated salary; inking him for the same rate as the $17.9MM qualifying offer he rejected back in November, then, would cost a team just north of $11MM from today through season’s end. Atlanta has a payroll of about $121MM at present, and their previous franchise-record Opening Day payroll total was $122MM. Signing Keuchel would push the Braves into uncharted territory, financially speaking — particularly when considering the fact that they’ll likely still make some additions on the trade market in an effort to bolster the bullpen.
That said, the National League East is among the game’s more tightly contested divisions. The Braves are currently 1.5 games behind the division-leading Phillies, 3.5 games ahead of the Mets and five games ahead of the suddenly surging Nationals. Given the competitive nature of the division, it’s understandable that they’re perhaps willing to push beyond previous comfort zones as they vie for a second consecutive playoff berth. Atlanta is currently in possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, but the difference between a guaranteed ticket to the NLDS and a winner-take-all, one-game coinflip is significant for any club.
Latest On Cardinals’ Alex Reyes
Little to nothing has gone according to plan for St. Louis’ rotation in 2019. Onetime top starter Carlos Martinez has settled for a relief role after shoulder weakness slowed him during the spring. Miles Mikolas, unexpectedly the Cardinals’ No. 1 starter a year ago, has taken sizable steps backward. So has Michael Wacha, whom the Cardinals demoted to their bullpen last month. Meanwhile, ex-ace Adam Wainwright and young starters Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have produced decent bottom-line results, but no one’s confusing them with front-line options at this point.
At 30-29 and within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot, St. Louis could reel in a rotation upgrade(s) from outside the organization via trade and/or free agency in the next couple months. As things stand, though, righty Alex Reyes might represent the Cardinals’ best chance to make a near-term improvement in their starting five. The 24-year-old has barely pitched in the majors this season, having totaled three innings in relief during the first week before the Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A Memphis. Three weeks later, Reyes fractured his left pinky while punching a wall after a minor league start. That ill-advised decision cost Reyes a few weeks, but he’s back to pitching at the minors’ highest level and could be within one start of a return to the majors, manager Mike Shildt said Tuesday (via Mark Saxon of The Athletic).
“Alex is clearly a guy who, when right, we’d like to have available if the need is there,” Shildt stated. “He’s definitely in the mix.”
It’s easy to see why the Cardinals are holding out hope for a Reyes breakthrough. Reyes was one of the game’s elite farmhands not long ago, and he justified his high rankings on top 100 prospect lists with a 1.57 ERA/2.67 FIP during a 46-inning debut in 2016. But Reyes underwent Tommy John surgery prior to 2017 and then required a season-ending procedure on his right lat last June.
Reyes’ injuries have helped prevent him from building on his initial showing in the majors, though he may get his first real opportunity to do so this year. Fellow young flamethrower Genesis Cabrera, whom the Cardinals promoted May 27 in an effort to boost their rotation, gave the team his second subpar start in as many tries Tuesday. Cabrera’s scheduled to make his next start Sunday in Chicago, but the club could go in another direction by then. Even if Cabrera does pitch against the Cubs, he may need to turn in a much-improved performance to get another start.
Latest On Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel‘s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.
The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).
The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.
Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.
Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On 10-Day IL, Promote Andrew Knizner
The Cardinals announced today that catcher Yadier Molina is headed to the 10-day injured list with a thumb tendon strain. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by Andrew Knizner.
It’s not clear as of yet how long Molina will be down. He’s only slashing .265/.294/.397 at the plate, but remains a highly graded pitch framer and unquestioned veteran leader. Going without Molina even for a short stretch could hurt the already scuffling Cards.
This move opens the door for increased action for Matt Wieters, who has turned in good offensive results thus far in limited opportunities. Backing up Molina generally doesn’t make for much playing time. Now, he’ll have at least a bit of a window to expand his case for a larger chance when he reenters the free agent market next year.
That’s not to say that the St. Louis club will just turn over the position to Wieters. This is also a nice chance for the club to give some looks to Knizner, who’s an increasingly interesting prospect and potential long-term replacement for Molina.
A former seventh-round pick out of N.C. State, Knizner has turned in consistently strong offensive numbers on his march through the Cardinals farm system. This year, he’s slashing a healthy .286/.355/.450 with five home runs in 155 plate appearances.
It seems likely the Cards will continue to lean on Molina and Wieters for the duration of the present season once the former is back in action. But Knizner could force his way into the club’s 2020 plans, perhaps serving as Molina’s understudy before taking over the primary backstop role as soon as 2021.
Latest On Michael Wacha
The Cardinals pulled right-hander Michael Wacha from their rotation May 24, but they don’t want his demotion to last through the season, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains. Pitching coach Mike Maddux told Goold the change isn’t “permanent,” adding, “He’ll definitely let us know when he’s ready to go back in.”
The relegation of Wacha opened the door for the Cardinals to promote flamethrowing prospect Genesis Cabrera, whose debut in Philadelphia on Wednesday didn’t go that well. The 22-year-old Cabrera gave up three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings, though he did strike out five. Worsening matters, Wacha’s appearance in relief of Cabrera surely ranks among the most awful performances of his career. Pitching for the first time since May 22, Wacha allowed six earned runs on five hits, including three home runs, and three walks in a single inning of work.
In the wake of Wednesday’s nightmare, Wacha owns a 6.51 ERA/6.52 FIP with 8.5 K/9, 6.04 BB/9 and a 24 percent home run-to-fly ball rate over 47 2/3 frames. It’s a shocking fall from grace for someone who looked like a potential front-line starter from his 2013 debut through 2015. However, various injuries have been deleterious to Wacha’s availability and effectiveness in recent seasons. The 27-year-old spent time on the IL earlier this season with a left knee injury and has seen his velocity fall by about a mile per hour on all of his pitches.
As poorly as 2019 has gone for Wacha, St. Louis doesn’t want to “pigeonhole” him into becoming a long reliever, manager Mike Shildt told Goold. Ideally for the Cardinals, Wacha will perform well enough in his newfound role to earn another shot in their disappointing rotation. A return to form is sorely needed for Wacha, who’s due to become a free agent after the season, but his platform year couldn’t be going much worse so far.
Cardinals To Call Up Genesis Cabrera
Left-handed pitching prospect Genesis Cabrera is about to bring his high-90s heat to St. Louis. The Cardinals will call up Cabrera for a start in Philadelphia on Wednesday, manager Mike Shildt told Josh Helmuth of KSDK News and other reporters Sunday.
This will be the first promotion to the majors for the 22-year-old Cabrera, who is already on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. The former Rays farmhand is in his first full season with the Redbirds, having come over last July in a trade centering on outfielder Tommy Pham. Cabrera has since risen to Triple-A Memphis, where his inexperience has been on display this season, evidenced by 6.35 ERA/6.86 FIP with 8.85 K/9 and 4.31 BB/9 in 39 2/3 innings.
Despite his unimpressive numbers at the minors’ top level, the Cardinals have high hopes for Cabrera, and there’s bullishness from outside the organization. Thanks in part to a fastball that can reach 98 mph, Cabrera ranks as one of the Cardinals’ 15 best prospects at Baseball America (No. 6), MLB.com (No. 8) and FanGraphs (No. 14). However, those outlets agree Cabrera brings a “violent delivery” and “inconsistent” secondary offerings to the table, which could lead to a future as a reliever.
For now, the Cardinals are open to giving Cabrera multiple chances to stick in their rotation if he performs well Wednesday, according to Shildt. Losers of 16 of 22 and owners of a .500 record, the Cardinals need a boost – including in their rotation. The Redbirds have consistently run out the same five starters this year, which is about to change in the wake of the floundering Michael Wacha‘s demotion to the bullpen.
Jack Flaherty is the lone Cardinals starter who has recorded above-average numbers on the season, though the grounder-heavy Dakota Hudson has limited opposing teams to three or fewer earned runs in seven consecutive outings. On the other hand, Miles Mikolas has taken steps backward since a star-caliber showing in 2018, and Adam Wainwright continues to distance himself from his halcyon days.
Cardinals Move Michael Wacha To Bullpen
The Cardinals have decided to move struggling righty Michael Wacha to the bullpen, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch was among those to report on Twitter.
Wacha, 27, just hasn’t turned the corner this year after turning in good results during an injury-shortened 2018 campaign. Through nine starts in the present season, he carries a 5.59 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 5.6 BB/9 over 46 2/3 frames.
It’s certainly hard to ignore the downturn in Wacha’s overall showing. He’s working with less velocity than ever before (93.0 mph average fastball). His swinging-strike (8.1%) and soft contact (11.9%) rates are sitting at career-low levels. Wacha has been out of the zone on nearly three of every five pitches, much lower than his career average, and has already allowed as many homers (9) this year as he did in nearly twice as many innings in 2018.
The timing isn’t great for Wacha. He’s earning $6.35MM this season in his final run through arbitration. Unless he can engineer a stunning turnaround over the final two-thirds of the season, Wacha’s prospective free agent opportunities will be more of the bounceback than the multi-year variety.
It isn’t yet known how the Cards will fill the open rotation slot, but there are options at Triple-A. Austin Gomber has been throwing quite well and could make for a sensible choice, though he needs to clear a few health hurdles first. Alex Reyes has been tough to square up but is also giving out too many walks; he’ll surely be called back to the majors at some point, but may spend a bit more time working out the kinks at the highest level of the minors.
Cardinals Release Luke Gregerson
The Cardinals announced Monday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Luke Gregerson. He’ll become a free agent once he (presumably) clears waivers in 48 hours. Gregerson was previously designated for assignment Friday evening.
Gregerson, 35, signed a two-year, $11MM contract with the Cardinals in a 2017-18 offseason during which the bullpen was a major focus. Gregerson joined Greg Holland and Dominic Leone as fresh faces brought into the St. Louis relief corps that winter, but none of the three proved to be a viable contributor for the Cards.
Gregerson is being paid $5MM in 2019 and is still owed about $3.575MM of that sum plus a $1MM buyout on an option for the 2020 season. Given that salary and his struggles since signing in St. Louis, he’ll almost certainly go unclaimed and then become a free agent who can sign with any club for the prorated league minimum through season’s end. The Cardinals would then see that sum subtracted from their own obligation to Gregerson through season’s end.
A hamstring strain and a shoulder impingement limited Gregerson to just 12 2/3 innings in 2018, and those shoulder troubles lingered into the 2019 campaign. He missed the first month-plus of the season due to that shoulder, and the effects may well have impacted him upon his return. While he’s never been a hard thrower, Gregerson found success with the Padres and Astros with a fastball that averaged around 89.5 mph; however, his heater averaged just 87.8 mph in 2018 and 86.7 mph in this season’s even more limited sample.
Gregerson was designated for assignment just 13 days after being activated from the injured list. In all, Gregerson will throw only 18 1/3 innings at the MLB level as a Cardinal. In that time, he posted a 7.36 ERA with a 14-to-7 K/BB ratio and 25 hits allowed (including a pair of homers). That said, he has a solid track record as a setup man and occasional closer. In 599 career innings prior to signing with the Cardinals, Gregerson owned a 3.02 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 51 percent ground-ball rate.
Cardinals Designate Luke Gregerson, Option Dominic Leone
The Cardinals have designated veteran reliever Luke Gregerson for assignment, per a club announcement. Fellow right-hander Dominic Leone was optioned down to create another active roster spot.
Those moves will clear the way for two other hurlers. The club has activated righty Carlos Martinez, who was expected to be brought back in a relief capacity this weekend after opening the year on the injured list due to shoulder issues. It has also called up righty Ryan Helsley.
Gregerson, who recently turned 35, is one of several recent free-agent bullpen additions that hasn’t worked out for the Cards. He has allowed 7.36 earned runs per nine in his 18 1/3 innings with the club since the start of 2018, a disappointing turn for a long-excellent hurler.
Injuries have taken a toll, with Gregerson’s stuff suffering. Since returning this year after undergoing knee surgery in 2018, he has shown a notable velocity decline and managed only a 4.8% swinging-strike rate — less than a third his career average of 15.0%.
The Cards will eat the remainder of the money owed to Gregerson, including the balance of his $5MM salary this season and a $1MM buyout. The deal included a club/vesting option for 2020.
Leone has also been a frustrating piece for the Cards since coming over via trade in advance of the ’18 campaign. He’s carrying 11.4 K/9 in the early going but has also dished out 4.6 free passes and surrendered 2.1 home runs per nine innings. Through 21 1/3 frames, Leone has been tagged for 19 earned runs.
The Cardinals will continue to pay Leon’s $1.26MM salary. He only just tallied enough MLB service to push into the 4+ service class, so the timing of his (hopeful) return to the majors won’t impact his arb status. But it certainly will play a significant role in what he can command via arbitration and whether he’s tendered a contract this fall.