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Tyler O’Neill Targeting Cardinals’ Center Field Job

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With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.

“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”

It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.

However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.

Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.

Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.

On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.

That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.

Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.

All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson

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Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.

Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.

For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
  • Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.

Cardinals Win Arbitration Case Against Genesis Cabrera

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The Cardinals have won their arbitration case against Genesis Cabrera, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll now take home $950K in 2023, rather than the $1.15MM he filed for.

The left-hander had a down year in 2022, working to a 4.63 ERA across 44 2/3 frames for St Louis. Cabrera saw his strikeout rate crater to just 16.5%, and his home run rate increase by 3.1 percentage points.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic, Cabrera first appeared in the big leagues in 2019, but it was the following season that he really showed his promise. That year, Cabrera tossed 22 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball, combining an impressive 33.3% strikeout rate with a 16.7% walk rate. He fell back a little in 2021, but still posted a solid 3.73 ERA over 70 frame, picking up 28 holds in the process as the Cards afforded him more high leverage roles.

The 26-year-old throws a mid-90s fastball alongside a curveball and changeup. While the 2022 season was a step back for Cabrera, the Cardinals clearly believe in his arm enough to tender him a contract through arbitration. Another year like last may make that decision a little less likely next winter, but for now Cabrera figures to offer the Cardinals a valuable left-handed option out of the bullpen.

Cardinals Win Arbitration Hearing Against Ryan Helsley

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The Cardinals have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Ryan Helsley, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. He’ll earn the $2.15MM salary submitted by the team instead of the $3MM figure he and his camp filed.

Helsley, 28, has been inconsistent in the big leagues thus far but is coming off the best showing of his young career. He debuted in 2019 with a strong showing, posting a 2.95 ERA over 36 2/3 innings in 24 appearances. He then struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign, with his ERA ticking up to 5.25, though that involved just 12 appearances. He improved slightly the following year, dropping his ERA to 4.56 in 51 appearances.

2022, however, was a tremendous step forward. He appeared in 54 games, often in a multi-inning capacity, logging 64 2/3 innings on the year. His ERA was a miniscule 1.25, the second lowest among all pitchers in the league with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Evan Phillips. He struck out an incredible 39.3% of batters he faced on the year, well beyond the 21.7% rate of his previous three seasons. He also kept his walk rate down to 8.4% after giving free passes at an 11.4% clip prior to 2022.

All of that coincided with Helsley moving up to higher-leverage work, as he recorded 19 saves and seven holds on the season. He figures to continue in that role going forward, alongside other key St. Louis relievers like Giovanny Gallegos, Andre Pallante and Jordan Hicks. This was Helsley’s first attempt at the arbitration process, having surpassed three years of service time last year. He is slated for two more arb passes before reaching free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Tim McCarver Passes Away

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Long-time major league baseball player and broadcaster Tim McCarver passed away today, per multiple reports. He was 81 years old.

“Tim McCarver was an All-Star, a World Series Champion, a respected teammate, and one of the most influential voices our game has known,” reads a statement from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred. “As a player, Tim was a key part of great Cardinals and Phillies teams in his 21-year career. In the booth, his analysis and attention to detail brought fans closer to our game and how it is played and managed. Tim’s approach enhanced the fan experience on our biggest stages and on the broadcasts of the Mets, the Yankees and the Cardinals. All of us at Major League Baseball are grateful for Tim’s impact on sports broadcasting and his distinguished career in our National Pastime. I extend my deepest condolences to Tim’s family, friends and the generations of fans who learned about our great game from him.”

A native of Tennessee, McCarver was signed by the Cardinals as a 17-year-old catcher in 1959. He got brief stints in the majors over the next few years before cementing himself as a major leaguer in 1963. He got into 127 games that year and hit .289. The next season, he held that batting average fairly steady at .288, helping the Cardinals win the pennant before defeating the Yankees in the 1964 World Series. McCarver caught every inning of every game in that series and hit .478 along the way.

He would be a mainstay of the Cardinals for the next five years as well, winning another World Series in 1967 and making the All-Star team in 1966 and 1967. He was traded to the Phillies prior to the 1970 campaign and stayed with them until a trade to the Expos midway through the 1972 campaign. He returned to the Cardinals in 1973 and part of 1974, then went to the Red Sox for a time before going back to the Phillies. He would stick in Philadelphia for the later part of his career, from midway through the 1975 season through the 1980 campaign. While he served as Steve Carlton’s “personal catcher,” the Phils won the National League East division in three straight years starting in 1976. He technically retired after 1979 but returned to the club late in 1980 so he could become the 11th player in history to play in four different decades.

For many baseball fans, McCarver is more recognizable as a broadcaster than as a player. He joined the Phillies’ broadcast team in 1980 and stayed with that club through 1982. During that time, he got his first experience of nationally-televised games with NBC’s Game of the Week. He then started calling Mets’ games, a gig that he held from 1983 through 1998. That period of time also saw him work with ABC on Monday Night Baseball and work on the World Series for the first time in 1985.

McCarver would also have stints working on the broadcast teams for the Yankees and Giants, as well as national gigs for CBS and The Baseball Network. But arguably the most significant development of this part of his career when was Fox acquired the rights for the World Series in 1996. They installed McCarver on the team with Joe Buck and he stayed there through 2013, eventually working the World Series in 23 different seasons. His last season with Fox was 2013, and he would call Cardinal games on a part-time basis in the years after that.

McCarver played in 1,909 major league games, racking up 1,501 hits, 97 home runs, 590 runs scored and 645 runs batted in. He won a pair of World Series titles, made a pair of All-Star teams and caught a pair of no-hitters. He then spent close to four decades as a broadcaster, including a lengthy stint as one of the most recognizable voices of the game.

We at MLB Trade Rumors join others in extending our condolences to his family, friends, fans and all those throughout the baseball world who are mourning him today.

Read The Transcript Of Our Live Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Deck McGuire

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Deck McGuire was drafted 11th overall in 2010 by the Blue Jays as a starting pitcher out of Georgia Tech, signing for $2MM.  Baseball America ranked him 95th among all prospects shortly after that.  At the time, BA felt that McGuire’s “good stuff and polish” and college resume would result in a quick path to Toronto’s rotation.

Things went off track for McGuire in 2012 at Double-A, however.  Eventually, the Blue Jays traded McGuire to the A’s for cash considerations in July 2014.  He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in 2015, and another one with the Cardinals after that season.  McGuire continued finding Triple-A jobs, signing with the Reds prior to the 2017 campaign.

After a strong 2017 season as a starter at the Double-A level, the Reds rewarded the tenacious McGuire with a September call-up.  He made his MLB debut at the age of 28, entering a bases loaded situation against the Cardinals and inducing a double play off the bat of Harrison Bader.  McGuire even got to finish that season with a start at Wrigley Field, tossing five scoreless with only two hits allowed and a strikeout of Kris Bryant.

Following the ’17 season, McGuire moved back to the Jays on a minor league deal.  By May, he was working out of the bullpen for the team that had drafted him eight years prior.  In June of that year, the Rangers claimed McGuire off waivers, trading him to the Angels shortly thereafter.  He made it back to the bigs for a few spot starts, also working out of the Halos’ bullpen that year.

After being part of three MLB organizations in 2018, McGuire signed a deal with KBO’s Samsung Lions.  He made 21 starts for that club, including the 14th no-hitter in KBO history.  McGuire landed with the Rays on a minor league deal in February 2020.  That minor league season was lost to the pandemic, and McGuire moved to the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League for ’21.

McGuire started the ’22 season in the Atlantic League, which he parlayed into another minor league deal with the Reds.  McGuire wrapped up his pitching career last December, writing on Twitter, “For 12 years I got to live out my dream of being a professional baseball player.”

McGuire’s journeyman career was not what anyone expected when the Blue Jays drafted him 11th overall, but his perseverance got him to the Majors for 51 2/3 innings with the Reds, Blue Jays, and Angels.  Even in that brief time he struck out Bryant, Jose Altuve, Rafael Devers, and Ryan Braun, among many others.  McGuire pitched for seven different MLB organizations while also spending multiple seasons overseas.

Asked about his post-retirement plans, Deck wrote in an email, “As of right now my plans are to stay in the game somehow. I’m currently working with some guys and youth teams in my area of Colorado. I’m gonna head back to Georgia Tech in the fall to graduate and be around the program.”  You can follow Deck on Twitter @deckmcguire.

Today, Deck chatted for over an hour with MLBTR readers, talking about the differences between KBO and MLB, the pressure of being a high draft pick, dealing with hecklers, and much more.  Read the transcript here.

John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Front Office Plans

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The Cardinals officially announced their previously-reported extension with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak this morning. That deal keeps him atop the baseball operations hierarchy through the 2025 season, which’ll bring him to 18 years leading the front office.

Speaking with reporters today, Mozeliak suggested he’s likely to delegate greater responsibilities to others in the baseball operations department over the coming seasons. “I know there is going to be some change coming over the next few years,” the president of baseball ops said (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “We certainly want to give individuals within the organization opportunities to grow and expand some of their roles, and over the course of the next year or so we’ll work through that.”

That’s with an eye on the franchise’s future leadership structure in mind. Longtime top lieutenant Mike Girsch has been in the organization since 2006 and served as general manager (second in responsibility) since 2017. He bypassed an opportunity to interview for the top job with the Mets over the 2021-22 offseason and signed a multi-year extension with St. Louis at the start of this winter. Girsch is clearly comfortable in his current role but could certainly garner renewed consideration to lead a front office down the line.

Meanwhile, assistant general manager/scouting director Randy Flores received a new multi-year deal at the same time as Girsch last fall. Special adviser Matt Slater drew some attention from the Tigers in their GM search this winter. Goold also writes that some within the industry believe AGM Moisés Rodríguez — who takes a key role in international scouting — could get a look to lead a baseball operations group at some point.

It seems the goal is to give members of that group greater influence in daily decision-making to prepare for potentially more significant work down the line. Mozeliak did not officially declare this would be his final contract or set any cutoff day for passing down top baseball ops autonomy, to be clear. However, he also hinted he was prepared to take on fewer responsibilities in the not too distant future. “Short-term, you’ll still get me for a little bit,” Mozeliak said (separate Goold link). “But as we get deeper into this contract there will be changes.” Goold reports that Mozeliak had considered pursuing opportunities outside the baseball industry in recent months before eventually deciding to remain in his current role.

Front office stability of the kind the Cardinals have enjoyed over the past decade and a half is rare. Only Brian Cashman and Kenny Williams have been at or alongside the top of their respective clubs’ baseball operations for longer than Mozeliak has. A pair of the sport’s longer-tenured front office heads — Oakland’s Billy Beane and Milwaukee’s David Stearns — moved into advisory capacities this offseason while turning over daily responsibilities to their respective longtime #2 executives, David Forst and Matt Arnold.

Cardinals, President Of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak Agree To Extension

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The Cardinals are in agreement with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak on a two-year contract extension, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The deal, which is tacked onto the final year of Mozeliak’s current contract, keeps him atop the baseball ops department through the 2025 campaign. Goold adds the club is expected to announce the move as soon as tomorrow.

It’s an entirely unsurprising development. Mozeliak has been a member of the organization since 1996, when he joined the club’s scouting department in his mid-20’s. Now 54, he’s spent over two decades with the franchise, quickly rising to the top of the front office. He’d taken over the scouting group by 1999 and was tabbed as an assistant general manager four years later. Following the 2007 offseason, he took hold of baseball operations upon receiving a promotion to GM. He’d retain final say on decision-making with a 2017 title boost to president of baseball operations.

Mozeliak has led the group for more than a decade and a half, overseeing a period of remarkable consistency. The Cardinals have had an above-average record in all 15 seasons. They’ve reached the playoffs in 10 of those years, including an ongoing streak of four consecutive appearances. While they won at least one playoff round every year from 2011-14, highlighted by a World Series title in 2011, the franchise has not had a ton of playoff success of late.

St. Louis has only advanced past the Division Series once since 2014, during a ’19 campaign in which they were then swept by the Nationals in the NL Championship Series. In each of the last three years, they’ve lost in the first postseason round — Wild Card series in 2020 and ’22 and the one-game Wild Card playoff in 2021. That has surely been a source of frustration to the organization and fanbase alike, but there’s little question of the club’s regular season success since Mozeliak took the helm.

The Yankees (30 straight) are the only other franchise with an active streak of 15+ consecutive winning seasons. (St. Louis’ streak is tied for sixth-longest in MLB history). The Cards have finished first or second in the NL Central four years running, taking the division in both 2019 and ’22. Mozeliak’s clubs have six division titles overall despite player payrolls that annually wind up only a little higher than league average. St. Louis doesn’t typically do a whole lot via free agency, but they’ve established a knack for a strong drafting/player development pipeline and executed a number of impact trades.

That has remained on display over the past few seasons. The Cards have gotten MVP-caliber production from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, both of whom were acquired in some of the more high-profile trades in recent memory (deals in which the players the Cardinals surrendered have largely underperformed). As with any baseball operations leader, Mozeliak’s group doesn’t have a perfect hit rate. Surrendering Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the 2017 Marcell Ozuna trade, for instance, has turned out disastrously. By and large, though, the organization has made strong player personnel decisions in recent years — manifesting in their consistency in churning out winning seasons.

St. Louis has continued to supplement that star talent with internal promotions, with players like Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Ryan Helsley making strong contributions despite entering the professional ranks as mid-round draftees. The organization’s development pipeline remains solid. Keith Law of the Athletic recently slotted their farm system ninth in the majors.

While that hasn’t translated to the recent playoff success the organization desires, the Cardinals appear to be in good shape for continued success throughout the coming decade. Ownership has certainly been pleased with the results, with Mozeliak and longtime top lieutenant Michael Girsch kept in place for over a decade apiece. Girsch is also locked in for the foreseeable future after inking a multi-year extension last fall.

Who’s Blocking Jordan Walker?

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The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker with the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. Since then, he’s been charging hard towards the majors, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists.

In 2021, he made his professional debut, splitting his time between Class-A and High-A. In 82 games between those two levels, he hit 14 home runs and stole 14 bases, leading to an excellent .317/.388/.548 batting line and a 151 wRC+. He moved up to Double-A for 2022 and kept it rolling, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 119 games. His .306/.388/.510 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than average. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit .286/.367/.558 over 21 games there.

Now Walker is considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each have him at #4, Keith Law of The Athletic at #5, FanGraphs at #8 and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN at #14. Since Walker has little left to prove at Double-A, he’ll likely be in Triple-A to start 2023, potentially jumping to the majors at any point.

Walker has primarily been a third baseman in his career thus far, as that was the only position he played in 2021. However, an Nolan Arenado-shaped obstacle is stopping him from seeing much time at the hot corner in the big leagues, so the club has started giving Walker some outfield reps. Walker made 68 starts at third in Double-A last year but also 30 in the outfield (24 of those in right). In the fall league, all 21 of his starts were on the grass, with twelve in right field. Prospect evaluators have suggested he is adjusting well to the move, with his strong arm and athleticism likely to help him serve as an above-average defender in the outfield.

As long as Arenado is healthy, Walker will be looking to crack the Cardinals as an outfielder. As of right now, the club’s likely starters out there would be Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar, with Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Moisés Gómez also on the 40-man roster.

O’Neill, 28 in June, is coming off a frustrating season but was tremendous the year before. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. His outfield defense was graded well by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average, with all that leading to 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve. Unfortunately, he made multiple trips to the injured list last year, due to a shoulder impingement and hamstring strain. He only got into 96 games and had diminished results when playing, hitting .228/.308/.392 for a wRC+ of 101.

It’s a somewhat similar trajectory for the 24-year-old Carlson. He hit 18 home runs in 2021 and batted .266/.343/.437 for a wRC+ of 113, but slipped to eight homers and a .236/.316/.380 line last year for a wRC+ of 100. He also went to the IL a couple of times, though he still played 128 games on the year. However, he got strong grades for his work in center field, with 6 DRS, 3 OAA and 1.8 UZR last year in just 530 innings. He seems to be the favorite to take over up the middle with Harrison Bader now a Yankee, though O’Neill and Nootbaar can both also play there.

Nootbaar, 25, hasn’t really had a full season as a big leaguer yet, as he was optioned to the minors three times last year. However, he seemed to take off after his final recall in mid-July. From that point on, he walked in an excellent 16.7% of his trips to the plate, just barely trailing his 17.1% strikeout rate. He hit 11 home runs in that stretch and slashed .240/.367/.490 as part of the second half surge.

Yepez, 25 next week, is more of a corner infielder who can play one of the outfield corners from time to time. His work on the grass hasn’t been graded well and he likely won’t be an everyday option. However, his potent bat will be in the mix for time as the designated hitter, which could still have an impact on Walker’s path to the bigs. Yepez hit 12 home runs in a 76-game debut last year, leading to a batting line of .253/.296/.447 and a wRC+ of 109. Burleson, 24, is somewhat similar, as his bat is considered a stronger part of his game than his defense. He didn’t hit much in his 16-game debut last year but his Triple-A batting line was .331/.372/.532 thanks to launching 20 homers. Gómez, 24, has yet to make his MLB debut but got himself a spot on the 40-man after a strong 2022. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .294/.371/.624 for a wRC+ of 149.

Out of all of these players, the only one to have qualified for arbitration so far is O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he’s not slated to reach free agency until after 2024. The others still have many years of affordable control. Once Walker is deemed ready for a move to the big leagues, the outfield could start to get crowded in St. Louis. He seems to be headed towards right field as his predominant position, where he could line up with Carlson in center and O’Neill in left most of the time. That would bump Nootbaar into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, which he might be overqualified for if his second half results last year are anywhere close to legit. Perhaps the Cards would think about trading O’Neill next winter, when he has hopefully had a bounceback season in 2023 and will be just one year removed from free agency. That would free up left field for Nootbaar or one of the other young guys.

All of this is contingent on everyone being healthy, of course, as even a single injury could unclog the situation in a hurry. But there’s a lot of talent here for the Cards, as their player development pipeline seems to churn out quality big leaguers at an incredible rate. However, even top prospects don’t always find immediate success in the big leagues. Walker has yet to even reach Triple-A, so some more patience might be required, though it feels fairly inevitable that the Cards will be able to work from an outfield surplus again at some point, even though they just traded Bader at last year’s deadline.

Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?

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The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.

The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.

The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.

Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.

What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.

Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.

One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”

The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.

Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.

For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.

McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.

Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.

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