Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
Kumar Rocker To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker will have Tommy John surgery, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
Rocker, 23, has a higher profile than the typical High-A prospect given the drama that has surrounded him in recent years. He was one of the most highly-touted youngsters going into the 2021 draft and was selected 10th overall by the Mets. Shortly after the draft, it was reported that he and the club were going to agree to a $6MM signing bonus, above the $4.7399MM slot value for the pick. However, the two sides would eventually be unable to come to an agreement when the club reportedly grew concerned by something in Rocker’s right elbow.
Having his plans to jump into affiliated ball scuttled, Rocker pivoted to sign with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League, eventually tossing 20 innings for them last summer. The Rangers then selected him with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, quickly agreeing to terms on a $5.2MM bonus that was below the $7,587,600 slot value of the pick.
After all of that runaround, Rocker was finally able to join the affiliated ranks this year. He made six starts for the High-A Hickory Crawdads, posting a 3.86 ERA in 28 innings. He struck out a huge 37.8% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate, getting grounders at a 51.6% clip. Earlier today, MLB Pipeline tweeted that they had just added Rocker to their list of the top 100 prospects in the league, just about 25 minutes before the news dropped that he would have to go under the knife.
Rocker will now be out of action for the rest of 2023 and at least part of 2024 as well, given the typical 14 to 18 months required to rehab from Tommy John surgery. It’s an unfortunate setback for a pitcher who has already dealt with a few twists and turns on his road to the big leagues. He isn’t yet on the club’s 40-man roster and won’t even be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season.
Injury Notes: Seager, Buehler, Maeda, Hiura
Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is expected to be activated prior to tonight’s game, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The 29-year-old Seager, playing in the second season of a decade-long $325MM contract, has missed the past month due to a hamstring strain. He burst out of the gates with a .359/.469/.538 showing through his first 49 trips to the plate and went 2-for-8 with a double, a walk and no strikeouts in a brief three-game rehab assignment at Double-A. In Seager’s absence, 23-year-old Ezequiel Duran has filled in admirably at shortstop, batting .293/.328/.474 on the season, though his bat has cooled off in the past week or so. Manager Bruce Bochy has been impressed enough that he’s pledged to find “creative” ways to keep Duran in the lineup frequently even after Seager’s return.
A few more injury situations of particular note to keep an eye on around the league…
- Right-hander Walker Buehler is with the team at Dodger Stadium and will throw in the bullpen for the Major League staff to take a look at his progress in recovering from Tommy John surgery, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Walker is still a ways from being an option in the big leagues. The 28-year-old’s surgery was performed late last August, and the general expectation surrounding him has been that he’ll at best be an option in the final month or so of the season. Still, the fact that Buehler has already had multiple bullpen sessions in Arizona and is slated for more mound work this week at Dodger Stadium is encouraging for both the Dodgers and their fans.
- The Twins hope that right-hander Kenta Maeda can resume throwing off a mound by the end of the week, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda hit the injured list with a triceps strain after being tattooed for 10 runs in three innings against the Yankees. He’d previously allowed six runs on 12 hits with a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio in 13 innings (4.15 ERA) after missing the entire 2022 season. The Twins’ rotation depth has been tested early, with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepping in for the injured Maeda and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery). A healthy Maeda would again give the Twins six candidates for rotation work, but injuries tend to sort these issues out. And, if everyone is healthy at the same time, the Twins could opt to use Maeda in relief as a means of monitoring his workload after not throwing a pitch last season.
- Brewers infielder Keston Hiura, currently playing with their Triple-A club, will miss several weeks due to a posterior cruciate ligament injury in his left knee, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Hiura won’t require surgery, but the expectation is that he’ll be out of game action until late next month. It’s a tough blow for the former top prospect, who was hoping to play his way back onto the big league roster after clearing outright waivers earlier this year. He’s out to a .331/.396/.678 start with a dozen home runs through 134 plate appearances with Nashville this season and has trimmed his strikeout rate there to 24.6%. Hiura has had similar stretches in Triple-A before, however, and his familiar strikeout woes have regularly resurfaced upon being promoted back to the big leagues. He batted .226/.316/.449 with the Brewers last year (115 wRC+), but because of a staggering 41.7% strikeout rate, he needed a .355 average on balls in play to get to that middling .226 batting average.
Ian Kennedy Elects Free Agency
Reliever Ian Kennedy elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed on outright waivers, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. The Rangers had designated the right-hander for assignment last week.
Kennedy heads back to the open market in search of a new opportunity after a brief second stint in Texas. The 17-year MLB veteran had had some success with the Rangers during the first half of 2021 leading up to a deadline trade that sent him to Philadelphia. He returned over the winter on a minor league pact and broke camp with the club but only made 11 appearances in his second stint.
The 38-year-old surrendered ten runs in as many innings. He struck out 13 out of 46 hitters (an impressive 28.3% rate) while issuing just three walks. He earned swinging strikes on a massive 16.3% of his offerings, which would easily be the best mark of his career if he could sustain it. Opponents made a lot of quality contact when they did get the ball in play, though, contributing to Texas’ decision to move on. Kennedy also struggled with hard contact last year in Arizona, leading to a 5.36 ERA across 50 1/3 frames.
While the past season-plus has been a struggle, Kennedy has been a quality late-game reliever at times. He saved 30 games with a 3.41 ERA for the Royals back in 2019 and picked up 26 more saves while allowing 3.20 earned runs per nine during the ’21 campaign divided between Texas and the Phillies. Between that track record and this year’s small sample swinging strike numbers, Kennedy should be able to at least find minor league interest elsewhere.
Rangers Select Cody Bradford
May 15: The Rangers have made it official, announcing the selection of Bradford’s contract today. In a corresponding move, righty Yerry Rodríguez was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock.
May 14: The Rangers announced that Cody Bradford will have his contract selected from Triple-A on Monday, as Bradford is slated to start Texas’ game against the Braves. The 25-year-old left-hander will be making his Major League debut. Texas will have to make a corresponding move for the 26-man active roster, but there’s already space on the 40-man after Ian Kennedy was designated for assignment earlier this week.
It might end up being just a cup of coffee in the Show for Bradford, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News notes that the Rangers are using him as a spot starter to give the rotation an extra day of rest. The Rangers are 10 games into a stretch of 13 games in 13 consecutive days, and the rotation is already a little short-handed with Dane Dunning taking the place of the injured Jacob deGrom. Dunning has pitched well in his first two starts but hasn’t thrown more than 72 pitches, so he’ll a bit of a breather before taking the mound again on Tuesday.
This opens the door for Bradford to make his first big league appearance in front of his local fans, as Bradford’s hometown of Aledo, Texas is about 40 minutes west of Globe Life Field. Bradford also stayed close to home in playing his college ball at Baylor, and the Rangers made him a sixth-round pick in the 2019 draft. Between thoracic outlet surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season, Bradford didn’t make his pro debut until 2021.
Perhaps due to this layoff, the southpaw was rather inconsistent at high-A and Double-A in 2021 and 2022, though he limited walks and had respectable strikeout numbers. This season has been a big surge in bottom-line results, as Bradford has a tiny 0.91 ERA over seven starts and 39 2/3 innings at Triple-A Round Rock. A .206 BABIP and a huge 92.5% strand rate indicate a lot of good luck in that minuscule ERA, but Bradford has also allowed only one home run, which is a positive step after surrendering 18 long balls over 118 2/3 frames last year.
Baseball America ranks Bradford 22nd amongst Rangers prospects, while MLB Pipeline ranks him 26th. His 60-grade changeup is considered to be his best pitch, while his 55-grade fastball has good movement despite an average velocity in the low 90s. Bradford started using a cutter last season that is showing good results as both a third offering, and as a way to better disguise a slider that has been mostly ineffective, as per BA’s scouting report.
AL West Notes: McCullers, Brown, Smith
Rotation depth has become a big story in Houston, as the Astros have lost Jose Urquidy until roughly the All-Star break due to shoulder discomfort and Luis Garcia for the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. This makes Lance McCullers Jr.‘s recovery from a forearm strain all the more important to the Astros’ plans, yet it still isn’t clear exactly when the right-hander might be able to return. Manager Dusty Baker told the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner and other reporters that he is “not sure exactly when” McCullers might face live batters as part of his rehab, “but we just hope he doesn’t have any setbacks that would take him backwards.”
Because McCullers’ injury took place so early in Spring Training, it’s been a long process for the righty in both getting healthy and then rebuilding his arm strength. McCullers told Lerner and company that he threw around 35 pitches as part of a bullpen session today, tossing three different pitches with plans to add a cutter during his next bullpen, tentatively slated for Tuesday. McCullers has yet to throw any off-speed pitchers off a mound, but that next step might come next weekend, as he is already throwing his off-speed repertoire while working on flat ground. Though the Astros can retroactively shift McCullers to the 60-day injured list if necessary, his initial placement on the 15-day IL provided an early indication that the club hopes he can return before the end of May.
More from around the AL West…
- Seth Brown began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Las Vegas today, Athletics manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Brown was sidelined with a left oblique strain on April 9 and was given a rough recovery timeline of four to six weeks. Since Kotsay said Brown will need at least 15-20 plate appearances in Vegas, it’ll still be at least a few days before Brown might rejoin Oakland’s lineup, though it looks like he’ll avoid the higher end of his initial rehab projection. Brown was off to a pretty slow start in 2023, but he hit 45 home runs with a .224/.294/.457 slash line over 862 plate appearances in 2021-22.
- X-rays were negative on Josh H. Smith‘s left foot after he was hit by a pitch in today’s game. Smith remained in action for another inning before being replaced in left field, though it appears as though he avoided a worst-case scenario. Smith has been a productive and versatile part-time bat for the Rangers, hitting .210/.388/.355 (122 wRC+) over 81 PA this season while seeing time as a left fielder, shortstop, and third baseman.
AL West Notes: Seager, Moniak, Rodriguez
Rangers fans have been anticipating the imminent return of star shortstop Corey Seager from his hamstring injury for some time now. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, the club appears to have a clear plan in place for Seager’s rehab, which began yesterday, and return to action in the majors. After playing five innings at shortstop as planned last night, Seager is expected to start as the DH for the club’s Double-A affiliate in Frisco before playing seven innings at shortstop on Sunday. If all goes well, manager Bruce Bochy indicated that Seager could be activated from the injured list in time for Monday’s game against the Braves.
Should Seager indeed be ready to return early next week, the Rangers would return one of their best hitters to a team that has taken control of the AL West with a 23-14 record in the early going. Seager was off to a torrid start through 11 games this season, slashing .359/.468/.538 in 49 plate appearance prior to his stint on the IL. As the Rangers have indicated a desire to keep Ezequiel Duran in the lineup going forward, Seager’s return could cut into the playing time of players like Brad Miller, Robbie Grossman, and Bubba Thompson.
More from around the AL West…
- The Angels today announced that they have recalled outfielder Mickey Moniak to the big league club. Moniak will take the roster spot of infielder Jake Lamb, who was previously reported to have been optioned down to Triple-A. A former 1st overall pick by the Phillies in 2016, Moniak has struggled offensively since his big league debut in 2020, slashing just .157/.218/.268 in 167 plate appearances, a slash line that’s 68% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. Moniak has impressed so far at the Triple-A level this season, however, with a solid .308/.355/.585 slash line in 141 plate appearances this season. Moniak figures to factor into the corner outfield mix along with Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe, with Mike Trout locked in as the everyday center fielder.
- Mariners star Julio Rodriguez moved down to the sixth spot in the batting order in yesterday’s game against the Rangers, marking the first time this season the young outfielder batted outside of the leadoff spot. Manager Scott Servais told reporters, including The Athletic’s Corey Brock, that the move was designed to take pressure off of last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, who has scuffled to a .205/.270/.384 slash line, good for a wRC+ of just 85. Rodriguez, for his part, expressed support for the decision, noting that he believed it was the best thing for the team.
The Rangers’ Quietly Excellent Catcher
A five-player trade between the A’s and Rangers in February of 2021 grabbed immediate headlines due to the recognizable names at the top of the deal. Texas sent stalwart shortstop Elvis Andrus to the division-rival A’s in a swap that brought baseball’s most consistent .247-hitting, 40-homer slugging designated hitter, Khris Davis, to Arlington. It was an exchange of players who’d become lineup fixtures but also had seen their respective contract extensions turn sour for their organizations. The Rangers kicked in $13.5MM to make the trade happen. They also sent backup catcher Aramis Garcia to the A’s and received minor league righty Dane Acker and a catching prospect of their own.
Fast forward two years, and that prospect, Jonah Heim, has become a centerpiece of the Rangers’ roster.
Heim’s development certainly wasn’t immediate. A fourth-round pick by the Orioles back in 2013, the now-27-year-old backstop was traded twice — first for Steve Pearce, and second for Joey Wendle — before making his debut seven years later, during the shortened 2020 season. Heim hit .211/.268/.211 in 41 plate appearances as a rookie and was ranked between eighth and fifteenth in Oakland’s system at the time he was traded to Texas.
That shaky age-25 debut could certainly be attributed to a small sample and the general strangeness of the 2020 campaign, but Heim received a heftier 285 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2021 and turned in a dismal .196/.239/.358 batting line. He managed to swat 10 home runs, but Heim rarely walked and even though he struck out at a better-than-average 20.4% clip, he rarely made great contact (87.1 mph average exit velocity, 37.3% hard-hit rate). Defensively, he was excellent, but Heim’s lack of offense made him look like a backup or part-time option behind the dish.
The Rangers seemed to agree, as they entered the 2021-22 offseason in search of catching upgrades and, just after the lockout ended, swung a deal to acquire slugging catcher Mitch Garver from the Twins. Heim started 12 of the Rangers’ first 28 games behind the plate, but an injury to Garver opened up the door for a larger role. Even when Garver returned relatively quickly from a flexor strain, the Rangers kept him at designated hitter. Prospect Sam Huff came up from Triple-A and saw some of the workload at catcher, but Heim’s early performance at the plate and his excellent defense earned him the larger portion of playing time.
From May 9 through season’s end, Heim started 70% of the Rangers’ games behind the plate. He didn’t sustain the torrid .342/.457/.658 line he’d compiled through his first 12 games, of course, but he finished out the year with a .227/.298/.399 batting line and 16 home runs. His walk rate jumped from 5.3% to 9.1%, and he cut his strikeout rate by a percentage point (19.3%). Heim also upped his average exit velocity by more than two miles per hour and increased his hard-hit rate by two percentage points. It was a series of small gains, but when paired with Heim’s defense, it resulted in a highly valuable all-around player. Heim trailed only the Yankees’ Jose Trevino in pitch-framing value, per Statcast, and Defensive Runs Saved (which doesn’t include framing) credited him with a plus-8 mark. Baseball-Reference pegged him at 2.5 wins above replacement. FanGraphs had him at 2.8 WAR.
That’s enough to consider Heim a starting-caliber catcher in and of itself, but the switch-hitter is in the midst of an offensive breakout that’s further elevating his profile in 2023. Through his first 123 trips to the plate, Heim has turned in a ridiculous .318/.382/.555 batting line with six home runs — already 37.5% of the way to his 2022 total despite having accumulated just 27% as many plate appearances.
Heim has undoubtedly benefited from a .354 average on balls in play, but there’s more than just good fortune at play. Heim has upped his contact on pitches in the strike zone from 88% to 90.1%. His average exit velocity has jumped another 2.2 miles per hour, and he’s seemingly made a more concerted effort to elevate the ball. After posting a 40% grounder rate in 2021 and a 39.1% rate in 2022, he’s hitting the ball on the ground in just 29.5% of his plate appearances this season. Heim has improved his launch angle in each of his big league seasons, and he’s nearly doubled last year’s barrel rate. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile or better in “expected” batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.
Whether Heim can sustain that pace is up for debate. He had similarly encouraging batted-ball metrics during last year’s hot start to the season, though that came in a smaller sample of plate appearances by virtue of the fact that he was playing less often. By the time Heim had reached his current number of plate appearances, he was sitting on roughly average exit velocity and hard-hit rates. At the very least, he’s maintained a high-caliber batted-ball profile over nearly double the sample of his hot start in ’22 — and he’s done so while again grading out as a premier defender at his position.
Dating back to the 2021 season, Heim is now a .246/.312/.426 hitter — about 12% better than league-average by measure of wRC+. The league-average catcher hit .226/.295/.367 in 2022 (89 wRC+) and is hitting .242/.314/.389 (94 wRC+) so far in 2023. Heim is comfortably ahead of that pace even if he reverts to a mirror image of his 2022 production for the remainder of the season, and if he can sustain any of his new flyball-oriented approach and hard-contact gains, he’ll cement himself as one of the best catchers in the league.
Heim isn’t even eligible for arbitration yet — that’ll come this offseason — and the Rangers control him all the way through the 2026 season. Three different organizations have felt comfortable trading him to this point in his career, and never in exchange for a marquee player. Heim never ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects and never climbed higher than 13th on any of his four organizations’ top-30 rankings at Baseball America.
Despite that lack of fanfare in the minors, Heim has emerged as an everyday option on an ascendent Rangers club and improbably looks like one of baseball’s best all-around catchers. Texas doesn’t have a catcher in its top-30 prospects at Baseball America or MLB.com right now. They control Heim for another four years, so there’s hardly any urgency to explore an extension, but if he’s willing to sign on for a team-friendly deal right now, it’d be worth looking into the possibility of securing a core piece whose affordable salaries could help balance out the huge sums they’ve paid to their recent free-agent signings.
On that note, critics of the Rangers often like to scoff at the team’s efforts to buy a championship. They spent more than half a billion dollars in the 2021-22 offseason when they signed Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. They followed up with nearly a quarter-billion more this past offseason when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to re-signing Martin Perez (among other, smaller-scale moves).
There’s little denying that a large portion of the team’s core has been acquired via free agency, but that’s only been a piece of the puzzle. They hit the jackpot in simultaneously acquiring Heim and shedding some of the Andrus contract, and they’ve done well to land both breakout slugger Nathaniel Lowe and Brock Burke in separate trades with the Rays over the past four years. The Rangers haven’t drafted well — Josh Jung‘s excellent start to the 2023 season notwithstanding. Perhaps that played a role in the team moving on from longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, but several of Daniels’ trade acquisitions have panned out, and Heim’s breakout has been a large part of that.
Rangers Designate Ian Kennedy For Assignment
The Rangers announced that they have recalled left-hander John King from Triple-A Round Rock while right-hander Ian Kennedy has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Kennedy, 38, spent many seasons as an effective starter for the Diamondbacks, Padres and Royals. He’s moved to a relief role in recent years with inconsistent results. He posted an ERA of 3.41 with the Royals in 2019 but saw that figure spike to 9.00 in the shortened 2020 season. He got back on track in 2021 with a 3.20 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies, then parlayed that into a $4.75MM deal with the Diamondbacks for 2022. That led to another downturn, however, as he had a 5.36 ERA with the Snakes last year.
With his recent seasons alternating between good and bad, it would have seemed superficially like Kennedy were due for a rebound this year. He returned to the Rangers on a minor league deal and cracked the Opening Day roster but has a 7.20 ERA through his first 11 outings and has now lost his roster spot in Texas.
Looking under the hood, things might not be quite as bad as that ERA seems. Kennedy has struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 6.5% walk rate. He’s allowed a .357 batting average on balls in play and has a 36.8% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side of average, particularly the latter figure. The league averages for those stats this year are .295 and 71.6%. Advanced metrics feel Kennedy deserved much better, including his 3.21 FIP, 3.36 xERA and 3.22 SIERA.
The Rangers will now have a week to trade Kennedy or pass him through waivers. There will likely be clubs willing to overlook the 7.20 ERA in a small sample, especially with many teams around the league dealing with various injuries amid their respective pitching staffs. Though in the event Kennedy clears waivers, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.
Latest On Jacob deGrom
The Rangers placed Jacob deGrom on the injured list on April 29 with inflammation in his throwing elbow. The two-time Cy Young winner had left his previous start early with some forearm discomfort, the second time this season he’d been forced to depart an outing for health reasons.
While deGrom is technically able to return to action this weekend, he won’t be reinstated when first eligible. Manager Bruce Bochy estimated this evening the four-time All-Star could be two to three weeks away (relayed by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). According to Grant, deGrom will meet with team physicians next Monday to determine whether he can start to ramp up the intensity.
The Rangers are understandably going to be cautious with deGrom’s arm health. He’s battled forearm and shoulder issues over the past couple years, resulting in an extended chunk of missed action between 2021-22. deGrom returned at peak form in last year’s second half and the Rangers made him the highest-paid pitcher of the offseason, inking him to a five-year, $185MM guarantee.
Through his first six starts in a Texas uniform, the star hurler has tossed 30 1/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball. Among pitchers with 30+ frames, only Spencer Strider has a superior strikeout rate to deGrom’s 39.1% clip. It’s exactly the kind of rate production for which general manager Chris Young and his front office had hoped, though the longstanding question has been how many innings they can expect deGrom to shoulder.
With deGrom out, Dane Dunning has stepped into the final rotation spot. Dunning was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for Texas between 2021-22 and threw five scoreless innings against the Angels last week. He’s a capable fill-in, though his move to the rotation puts added pressure on a bullpen that has been shaky of late. Dunning was arguably Texas’ best reliever for the first month, tossing 20 1/3 frames of 1.77 ERA ball.