Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame
The Hall of Fame announced this evening that third baseman Scott Rolen has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle. He will be inducted alongside first baseman Fred McGriff, who was previously elected by the Era Committee.
Rolen received 76.3% of the vote, just above the 75% required for induction. A few players just under that line were Todd Helton at 72.2%, Billy Wagner at 68.1% and Andruw Jones at 58.1%. Here are the full results, per the BBWAA.
A native of Indiana, Rolen was selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He made his way up to the majors and debuted in 1996 when he was just 21 years old. He hit at a below-average rate in that 37-game debut but he truly broke out the next year. In 1997, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases en route to a batting line of .283/.377/.469. That production was 21% better than the league average hitter that year, as evidenced by his 121 wRC+. He was crowned the National League Rookie of the Year for that campaign.
Rolen would go on to contribute in similar fashion for the Phillies over the next few seasons. He hit between 25 and 34 homers in each season from 1998 to 2004 while also swiping at least eight bases in all but the last season of that stretch. His excellent third base defense started to be recognized during this period as well, as he won a Gold Glove award in 1998. That was the first of eight such awards he would eventually win.
That period included a trade to the Cardinals in 2002, a team for whom he would have some of his best seasons. The standout season of his career was 2004, where Rolen went deep 34 times and produced a batting line of .314/.409/.598. His wRC+ was 159 and his stellar defense led to him racking up 9.0 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations at FanGraphs. Only Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were able to best him in terms of fWAR that year. Bonds took home the National League Most Valuable Player award that year with Rolen in fourth place in the voting, also trailing Beltre and Albert Pujols.
In 2005, he played just 56 games before injuring his shoulder and eventually requiring season-ending surgery. He got back on track in 2006 with another strong season, hitting 22 home runs and producing at an above-average level. The Cards won the National League Central division and eventually went on to win the World Series over the Tigers. Rolen played one more season in St. Louis but was traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2008 season. He spent a season and a half in Toronto before getting dealt to the Reds, where he played out the remainder of his career. Over 17 MLB seasons, he hit 316 home runs, scored 1,211 runs, drove in 1,287, and stole 118 bases. He made seven All-Star teams, won eight Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a World Series.
In 2018, he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He garnered 10.2% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold for admittance but well above the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot. His vote share grew to 17.2%, 35.3%, 52.9% and 63.2% in the subsequent years, finally getting over the hump here in 2023. MLBTR congratulates him on his induction.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
AL East Notes: Guerrero, Sale, Rays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays “haven’t had the conversations yet” this winter about a multi-year extension, the slugger tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters. Guerrero didn’t sound overly concerned about the lack of talks, saying “I’m going to stay focused on working hard and let my team take care of that.” The idea of a long-term deal between Guerrero and the Jays has been a topic essentially since Guerrero arrived in the majors as baseball’s top prospect, and though the first baseman is heading into his fifth MLB season, the clock isn’t yet ticking too loudly on Guerrero’s team control. Toronto still has arbitration control over Guerrero through the 2025 season, and the two sides already worked out a contract for Guerrero for 2023, as he’ll earn $14.5MM for the coming year.
With Guerrero set to become a free agent prior to his age-27 season, this relatively early entry into the market likely means a particularly large payday is awaiting the first baseman — whether from another team, or in the form of an extension from the Blue Jays to lock Guerrero up as the face of the franchise. As Davidi notes, the massive longer-term contracts handed out this winter undoubtedly caught the attention of both the Jays and Guerrero’s representatives, and now both sides may have a better view of what it might cost the Blue Jays to retain Guerrero’s services. Since most extension talks usually don’t begin until deeper into Spring Training, it will be interesting to watch if Guerrero and the Jays have any substantive negotiations, or if any real progress is made towards an extension.
More from the AL East…
- After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019. Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior. Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get. I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for. I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.” Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season. “That’s not going on the odometer. I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape. My arm’s feeling good. I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”
- Seven Rays players are slated for arbitration hearings, which is (as per MLB.com) is the third-highest number of hearings for any team in the history of the arb process. President of baseball operations Erik Neander felt the lack of agreement in negotiations with the seven prior to the arbitration filing deadline were “much more about the uniqueness of several players’ career paths leading to a bit of a more challenging experience for both parties to find common ground,” the executive told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “But I very much believe that everyone worked to find it — we just didn’t quite get there.” As Topkin notes, the differences between the Rays’ submitted salary figures and the seven players’ figures work out to only $2.85MM in total. That said, it doesn’t seem likely that any deals will be worked out before the sides present their cases to an arbiter, unless a player signs a multi-year contract. [RELATED: the full list of the 33 players who are heading for arbitration hearings]
David Phelps Announces Retirement
Right-hander David Phelps is retiring, he announced this evening through his agents at Wasserman (Twitter link). Phelps thanked his former teammates, coaches, medical staff, agency and family as well as all the organizations for which he played in a lengthy statement.
A Notre Dame product, Phelps cracked the professional ranks a 14th-round selection of the Yankees in 2008. A few seasons of strong minor league performance garnered him some prospect attention as a potential back-end starter. He reached the big leagues for the first time in April 2012, kicking off a rookie season in which he’d post a 3.34 ERA through 99 2/3 innings. Phelps also pitched three times for New York that postseason, logging 3 1/3 innings in what would prove his only career playoff action.
Phelps started 11 of 33 outings for New York that year and held a similar swing role for the next couple seasons. For the first three seasons of his career, he’d toss 299 1/3 innings with the Yankees over 87 appearances (40 starts). He posted a cumulative 4.21 ERA while holding opponents to a .251/.330/.399 slash. Over the 2014-15 offseason, New York dealt Phelps and infielder Martín Prado to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and then Low-A pitcher Domingo Germán, who’s still a Yankee more than eight years later.
During his first season with the Fish, Phelps remained primarily a rotation member. He started 19 of 23 outings, working to a 4.50 ERA. By his second season in South Florida, he’d moved almost exclusively to relief. That kicked off a second act as a generally reliable bullpen arm. Phelps posted a 2.28 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout percentage over 86 2/3 innings in 2016. After throwing another 47 frames with a 3.45 ERA in the next season’s first half, he changed organizations for a second time.
The Mariners acquired Phelps in a deadline deal that sent four prospects to Miami. Three of those players never reached the big leagues, but the Marlins’ acquisition of then High-A righty Pablo López turned out exceptionally well. The trade wasn’t especially successful for the Mariners, as Phelps pitched just 10 times before suffering an injury to his throwing elbow. He first underwent surgery to remove bone chips from the joint, then unfortunately required a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him the entire 2018 campaign.
Phelps hit free agency for the first time that offseason, landing with the Blue Jays on a buy-low $2.5MM pact. Once he returned to health, he proved a single middle-innings option for Toronto. Phelps performed well in 17 appearances before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline for Tom Hatch. He had a fine second half before again hitting free agency when Chicago declined a club option for 2020.
The past three seasons have seen the Missouri native continue to bounce around the league. He signed a one-year guarantee with Milwaukee going into 2020 and was dealt to the Phillies for a trio of minor league pitchers at the deadline. Phelps was hit hard in his limited time with Philadelphia, leading the club to decline an option. He returned to Toronto on a one-year deal over the offseason and got off to a brilliant start through mid-May.
Injuries again intervened, though, as Phelps suffered a rupture of his right lat. That required season-ending surgery, one which Phelps acknowledged he initially believed would end his career. He was fortunately able to rehab and got another shot on a minor league deal with Toronto last offseason. He cracked the MLB roster out of camp for what’d be his third season as a Blue Jay.
Phelps would conclude his career with a flourish. He stayed healthy all year, a significant accomplishment in its own right given the injury he’d suffered the season before. Phelps posted his best numbers since his Miami days, providing the Jays 63 2/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball through 65 appearances. That’d quite likely have earned him another MLB contract this winter if he wanted to return for an 11th season. Phelps indicated he’d known by the end of last season he was finished playing, however.
He spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks, including the past 10 years at the MLB level. Over 682 2/3 career frames, he posted a 3.80 ERA while striking out 22.9% of opposing hitters. In addition to his 67 starts, he finished out 45 games (including seven saves). Phelps held 78 leads as a middle reliever or setup option, suiting up for seven organizations. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings a hair above $15MM. MLBTR congratulates Phelps on a long and accomplished career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.
Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023
News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.
Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.
Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.
Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021
Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.
Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021
Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.
José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively
Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.
Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021
Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.
James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021
Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.
Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021
May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.
Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021
Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021
Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021
Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.
Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021
Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.
Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022
Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.
Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022
Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.
John Means, Orioles — April 2022
Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.
Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022
Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.
Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022
Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.
Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022
Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.
Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022
Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.
Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022
Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022
Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.
September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper
These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.
Blue Jays Outright Junior Fernandez
The Blue Jays announced that reliever Junior Fernández has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He’d been designated for assignment last week after Toronto finalized the acquisition of starter Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh.
Fernández has bounced around a bit over the past few months. Initially an amateur signee of the Cardinals in 2014, he’d spent his entire career in the St. Louis organization until being designated for assignment last September. Fernández landed with the division-rival Pirates on waivers and finished the 2022 season there, making three appearances down the stretch. At season’s end, Pittsburgh designated him for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for prospects they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.
The 25-year-old then landed with the Yankees and Blue Jays on successive waiver claims. His stay on the Toronto 40-man lasted less than a week, with Fernández claimed on January 5 and DFA five days later. Now that Toronto has succeeded in running him through waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as upper minors depth. Fernández has never previously been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he doesn’t have the ability to elect minor league free agency.
Fernández has appeared at the MLB level in parts of the last four seasons. The righty has thrown 54 innings across 50 outings, compiling a 5.17 ERA. He’s induced grounders on nearly half the batted balls he’s allowed but paired that with a mediocre 18.7% strikeout percentage and lofty 13.9% walk rate.
While he’s yet to find much consistent success, it’s easy to see why multiple teams have given Fernández a look over the past few months. He averaged 98.7 MPH on his sinker and 88.9 MPH on his slider during his 16 big league outings last year. That velocity hasn’t translated into many strikeouts but has gotten a decent number of swings and misses; opponents have whiffed at 13.5% of the pitches he’s thrown throughout his MLB career, a rate that’s roughly two points higher than average.
Fernández figures to get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training. Assuming he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, he’ll report to Buffalo. Owner of a 4.12 ERA and quality 27% strikeout rate through 83 career Triple-A innings, he’ll be an interesting bullpen depth flier for the Jays. He is out of minor league option years, however. That means if the Jays promote him to the majors at any point, they’ll either have to keep him in the big leagues or again make him available to other teams via trade or waivers.
Cubs Claim Julian Merryweather, Designate Manuel Rodríguez
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Julian Merryweather off waivers from the Blue Jays, reports Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Merryweather had been designated for assignment by the Jays last week. In a corresponding move, fellow righty Manuel Rodríguez has been designated for assignment.
Merryweather, 31, was drafted by Cleveland but went to the Blue Jays in the 2018 trade that saw Josh Donaldson go the other way. He has pitched in each of the past three MLB seasons, flashing elite velocity on his fastball, which has averaged in the 96-98 mph range in each of those campaigns.
Despite that blazing speed, Merryweather hasn’t had good results so far. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced in 2020 but saw that number drop to 21.8% and 19.3% in the past two seasons. That coincided with an increase in his ERA, going from 4.15 to 4.85 and 6.75 in the most recent season. In addition to those struggles, health is an ongoing concern. Though he pitched over 40 innings in 2022, the previous four years each saw him fall short of 20 frames.
Merryweather’s been much better in the minors, such as pitching 14 1/3 scoreless innings at Triple-A last year with a 32.7% strikeout rate. However, he’s now out of options and the Cubs will have to keep him on their active roster or else send him into DFA limbo again. If they can help him turn his huge velocity into better results, they can keep him around for many seasons via arbitration since Merryweather has just over two years of MLB service time.
In adding one flamethrower, the Cubs are risking losing another. Rodríguez, 26, averaged 97.2 mph on his sinker in 2021 and 95.9 mph last year. But like Merryweather, he hasn’t turned that into punchouts, striking out just 17.1% of batters faced in 31 1/3 major league innings thus far. He has gotten ground balls at a solid 53.2% clip but has also given free passes to 15% of batters faced.
The Cubs will now have a week to trade Rodríguez or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and just over a year of service time. Given his youth and potent velocity, he could find interest from other clubs that are looking for some pitching depth.
Boras: Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins “Were Really After” Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts‘ first visit to free agency resulted in an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres that greatly exceeded projections, even for a player who was expected to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts. Agent Scott Boras discussed some of the twists and turns of Bogaerts’ free agent trip with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Boras identified that Bogaerts was San Diego’s second choice, once Trea Turner rejected a reported $342MM offer from the Padres.
Once Turner turned down the Padres’ offer to sign with the Phillies, “we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts,” Boras said. “They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.” Left unspoken by Boras was the fact that the Padres were clearly itching to land a big target of some kind, even to the point of considering a $400MM bid for Aaron Judge. With Judge and Turner off the board, the Padres may have been more willing to go above and beyond to sign Bogaerts, and ensure that their offseason endeavors would include at least one superstar name.
The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility. There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder.
“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said. “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them. So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”
Sure enough, the Red Sox indeed ended up extending Devers, while Bogaerts landed in San Diego. As for other teams in the hunt, such teams as the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were all linked to Bogaerts at various points in the offseason, even if some of these pursuits were perhaps more cursory than others. Boras implied that three teams in particular (beyond the Padres) separated themselves from the pack, saying that “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after” Bogaerts’ services.
The Cubs and Twins were already known to be Bogaerts’ suitors, and as both clubs were monitoring the high-end shortstop market and eventually came away with two of the winter’s top options at the position — Chicago signed Dansby Swanson, while Minnesota (eventually) reunited with Carlos Correa. The Twins’ interest in Bogaerts was framed as a backup plan if Correa signed elsewhere, though Bogaerts ended up signing with the Padres before Correa agreed to his initial deal with the Giants. As for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote that the team gave some consideration to the idea of signing both Bogaerts and Swanson, with Bogaerts playing third base in that blockbuster scenario.
It makes for some fascinating “what-if” material, since neither the Twins or the Cubs were previously considered top candidates to sign Bogaerts. However, the Blue Jays’ involvement is perhaps the most interesting, as Toronto hadn’t previously been linked to Bogaerts or any of the top shortstops whatsoever. While the aggressive Jays are known to be a team that routinely checks in on most free agents as a matter of due diligence, Toronto’s focus was known to be on the club’s greater needs in the outfield and in the rotation. Such names as Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, and Kodai Senga were among the many players linked to the Blue Jays, and Toronto has thus far signed Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt, while Daulton Varsho and Erik Swanson were respectively acquired in major trades with the Diamondbacks and Mariners that saw Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez change uniforms.
These moves have sent the Jays’ payroll to franchise-record heights, and set the team up to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time. So in that sense, making a splash to sign Bogaerts wouldn’t have been out of line with the Blue Jays’ spending habits, even if obviously landing Bogaerts would have entirely changed the scope of Toronto’s offseason.
First and foremost, the Blue Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette, who is only entering his age-25 season and already amassed two top-12 finishes in AL MVP voting, an All-Star nod, and 9.6 fWAR in 2021-22. (For comparison, Bogaerts had 10.4 fWAR in 2021-22.) Bichette’s success at the plate, however, was tempered by a rather drastic defensive decline in 2022, as public metrics placed Bichette among the league’s worst defensive players. Ironically, Bogaerts’ glovework had long been a source of controversy, but he quelled some doubts over his viability as a shortstop by delivering the best defensive season of his career in 2022.
Had the Jays signed Bogaerts, they could’ve installed him at shortstop and moved Bichette to second base, and then used the current collection of second-base options (i.e. Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield) either purely as depth options or as trade chips. Since Matt Chapman is a free agent after the 2023 season, the Blue Jays might’ve considered moving Bogaerts to third base at that point and returning Bichette to shortstop, if Chapman wasn’t retained. Or, if signing Bogaerts would’ve taken up much or all of Toronto’s payroll space, the Blue Jays might have been considered trading Bichette in order to address other needs. If the Jays hadn’t had the money to sign a Bassitt-level starter, for instance, Bichette could have been shopped to land a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Blue Jays Bullpen Coach Matt Buschmann Departs Organization
The Blue Jays have announced that bullpen coach Matt Buschmann is leaving the organization to pursue other opportunities. Buschmann had been with the Blue Jays since 2018, and also served as the team’s director of pitching development since 2020. Toronto also announced that it will complete its coaching staff in the coming weeks.
Buschmann, 38, was a 15th-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt University by the Padres in 2006. He would work his way through the Friars’ minor league system, spending time with both their Double- and Triple-A affiliates in 2009, 2010, and 2011, but would struggle and post combined ERAs north of 5. He was eventually selected in the Double-A portion of the Rule 5 Draft by the Nationals who flipped him to the Rays for cash considerations in 2012.
Like with the Padres, Buschmann’s time with the Rays was limited to Double- and Triple-A baseball. He would work to a 2.86 ERA in 160 2/3 innings during the 2013 season across the two levels but did not receive a call-up. The righty left the team in free agency and joined the Athletics for the 2014 season, re-signing with the club for the 2015 season. However, he would be traded back to the Rays for cash considerations before the season began but was released mid-way through the season. He had a short stint with the Reds’ minor league affiliate before he was traded to the Orioles for cash.
Buschmann signed with the Diamondbacks ahead of his age-32 season in 2016, and would finally earn a promotion to the majors 10 years after he was drafted. However, he would only make three appearances at the major league level, pitching 4 1/3 innings while allowing two hits (one home run), striking out three, and walking one. Following this brief appearance, he was designated for assignment and outrighted to Triple-A Reno, where he finished the 2016 season. Ahead of the 2017 season, Buschmann signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays but did not make an appearance with the club before transitioning into a coaching role.
Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023
Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.
As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America‘s Ben Badler and MLB.com‘s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:
- Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
- Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
- Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
- Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
- Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
- Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
- Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:
- Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM) [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
- Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
- Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
- Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM) [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
- Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM) [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
- Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM) [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
- Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration
The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in agreement on a $14.5MM deal for the 2023 season to avoid arbitration, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Guerrero Jr., who has spent his entire career as a member of the Blue Jays organization, was the universally-recognized top prospect in baseball ahead of his major league debut in 2019. While his debut season was solid for a rookie, it failed to meet those lofty expectations as he slashed .271/.339/.433 (106 wRC+) across 123 games in the big leagues. The shortened 2020 season was more of the same for Guerrero Jr. as he posted a wRC+ of 110 while largely repeating his 2019 stats, with slight improvements to his ISO and strikeout rate being largely cancelled out by a drop in his BABIP.
Guerrero Jr. fulfilled the promise of his top prospect status and then some in 2021, however. In 161 games, Guerrero Jr. slashed a phenomenal .311/.401/.601, good for a whopping 166 wRC+ that led the slugger not only to his first All Star appearance, but a second place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Following that banner season, Guerrero Jr. came back down to earth somewhat in 2022, though he was still far better than he had been in the first two seasons of his career. A slash line of .274/.339/.480 was good for a wRC+ of 132, a second All Star appearance, and some down-ballot MVP votes.
The $14.5MM agreement ties the record set by Pete Alonso earlier today for highest salary among arbitration-eligible first basemen. Guerrero will again be eligible for arbitration both next offseason and ahead of the 2025 campaign, and is set to become a free agent during the 2025-26 offseason. It’s possible Toronto will lock Guerrero Jr. up before then, however, seeing as the slugger publicly stated that he was open to a long-term extension earlier this offseason. Today’s agreement does not preclude a longer deal later on this offseason, though there haven’t been many rumblings of such an agreement being in the works to this point.