Domingo German Suspended Following Foreign Substance Check
May 17: As expected, Germán has been given a 10-game suspension and a fine, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Germán will not be appealing.
May 16, 10:11pm: Hoye met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and Keegan Matheson). He called Germán’s hand “the stickiest (he) had ever felt” and opined it “was definitely not rosin.”
7:12pm: Yankees starter Domingo Germán was ejected from this evening’s appearance against the Blue Jays following a foreign substance inspection. Germán had completed three perfect innings before being thrown out by home plate umpire James Hoye to start the fourth. Ian Hamilton was called out of the bullpen to replace him.
Germán becomes the second pitcher of the season ejected for a foreign substance violation. Mets star Max Scherzer had been tossed from a game with the Dodgers a few weeks ago. Those ejections carry a corresponding 10-game suspension, so it’s likely Germán will be formally hit with that ban in the next day or two.
It’s also the second time this season Germán himself has been at the center of a sticky stuff controversy. During an April 15 outing against the Twins, umpires twice warned Germán about applying too much rosin to his hand (link via Dan Hayes of the Athletic). The umpiring crew allowed him to continue pitching after washing his hands. That was to the displeasure of Minnesota skipper Rocco Baldelli, who was himself ejected for arguing against Germán being allowed to continue.
While pitchers are permitted to use rosin, MLB pointed as partial justification for Scherzer’s suspension earlier in the year that “when used excessively or otherwise misapplied (i.e., to gloves or other parts of the uniform), rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to ejection and discipline.” It isn’t yet clear whether that was the crew’s justification for Germán’s ejection or whether they determined he was using a banned substance altogether.
The league will surely provide more information in the next day or two. That’s largely immaterial to the Yankees, as Germán faces a suspension regardless of the precise justification. He’d have an appellate right, though Scherzer declined to go through that process after being informed that a league official is responsible for hearing the appeal. In all likelihood, Germán will be out for the next ten days.
If that’s the case, the Yankees would have to play with a 25-man roster. Teams cannot fill the roster spot of a player suspended for an on-field rules violation. New York could recall a spot starter or reinstate Luis Severino from the injured list to step into the rotation but they’d have to play a man short in another area to do so.
Matt Chapman Is Mashing His Way To A Massive Payday
From 2018-19, the short list of baseball’s best all-around players would’ve unequivocally included then-Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman. The 2014 No. 25 overall pick graduated from top prospect status to everyday big league third baseman in the second half of the 2017 season, and by 2018 he’d thrust himself into the fringes of the American League MVP conversation. Chapman finished sixth in AL MVP voting in 2018 and seventh in an All-Star 2019 season. He batted a combined .263/.348/.507 with 60 home runs between those two seasons, winning Gold Gloves at third base each year. Chapman ranked eighth among all position players with 12 Wins Above Replacement from 2018-19, per FanGraphs.
The A’s had a star third baseman on their hands and were seeing a young core that included Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Ramon Laureano blossom into the foundation of a perennial contender. That group never advanced beyond the ALDS but did respectively win 97, 97, 34 and 86 games in 2018-21 before the front office tore things down in the 2021-22 offseason as Athletics ownership embarked on a Rachel Phelps-esque plan to push the team out of Oakland.
Part of the reason the A’s missed the postseason in that 86-win 2021 campaign was undoubtedly that Chapman had taken a step back in production following 2020 hip surgery. That’s not to pin the team’s playoff miss solely on the star third baseman, of course, but Chapman’s production dipped in 2020 as his strikeout rate soared to 35.5% while he played through tendinitis and a torn labrum in his hip. His 2021 campaign saw Chapman post a career-worst .210/.314/.403 batting line with a 32.5% strikeout rate — a far cry from the MVP-caliber output he flashed in 2018-19.
Though they were selling at a low point, Oakland still traded Chapman to the Blue Jays amid that 2021-22 offseason teardown, receiving top pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-handed starter Zach Logue (whom they lost on waivers the following winter) and left-handed reliever Kirby Snead. Chapman’s first year in Toronto was solid but still nowhere close to his previous heights; he played top-shelf defense, as always, but his .229/.324/.433 batting line (117 wRC+) was good — not great. He swatted 27 home runs and succeeded in lowering his strikeout rate back beneath the 30% level, but it still sat at a well above-average 27.4%.
Chapman was a good player, to be sure, but from 2020-22 he hit .221/.314/.432. His plus power (64 homers, .211 ISO in 1395 plate appearances) and standout defense still made him a valuable, above-average regular at third base, but he no longer looked like the budding superstar he did during that 2018-19 peak — at least… not until 2023.
We’re just six weeks into the season, but Chapman has not only rebounded substantially from that 2020-22 downturn, he’s eclipsed even his peak levels of production thus far. Through his first 153 trips to the plate, Chapman is hitting .338/.425/.579 with five home runs. His 17 doubles are already more than he hit in the entire 2021 season. The strikeout rate that spiked north of 30% and sat at 27.4% a year ago is down to 25.5%, with reason to believe it could improve further.
Chapman’s 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate are both markedly better than the respective league averages of 10.9% and 31.4%. That doesn’t guarantee his strikeout rate will come down, but chasing bad pitches and whiffing less often than the league-average hitter should, in theory, eventually push his strikeout rate south of the league average.
Beyond the gains in strikeout rate and contact rate, Chapman is simply decimating the ball when he puts it into play. No one in baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Chapman’s 95.3 MPH mark, and his ludicrous 28.7% barrel rate is the best in MLB by an enormous margin of six percentage points. Aaron Judge is second at 22.7%, and there are only six total hitters in MLB at 20% or higher. An astonishing 67% of Chapman’s batted balls have left the bat at 95 mph or more.
Given the authority with which Chapman is hitting the ball, it’s actually a bit surprising he’s only connected on five home runs. His launch angle is right in line with his 2018-19 levels, and he’s hitting the ball in the air more often than he did in his previous peak years. After hitting a fly-ball in 41.3% of his plate appearances in 2018-19, Chapman is at 47.9% in 2023. A smaller percentage of those fly balls are of the infield variety (8.9% versus 15.9%), too. He’s curiously seen just 11.1% of his flies become home runs this year, compared to the 16.6% rate he enjoyed during his career with Oakland. That’s despite hitting the ball harder now and playing in a more homer-friendly venue; it stands to reason that Chapman’s home run output will be on the upswing sooner than later, provided he maintains this quality of contact.
Maintaining this pace, of course, will be difficult to do. Chapman’s clearly enjoying some good fortune right now, evidenced by a massive .449 average on balls in play. He’s already begun to see some regression, hitting .206/.308/.265 in 39 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to May. That dip in production is attributable not only to a drop in his BABIP, but more concerningly a spike in his strikeout rate. We’re looking at a small sample within a small sample, and the endpoints are admittedly arbitrary, but Chapman has fanned in exactly one-third of his plate appearances this month.
It was never reasonable to expect Chapman, a career .240/.329/.469 hitter entering the season, to sustain a batting average in the high-.300s, of course. But he’s regularly shown an ability to make high-quality contact in the past, so the big thing to keep an eye on with him as he approaches his first trip to free agency at season’s end was always going to be his contact rates.
If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play. He’s still walking at an excellent 11.8% clip, after all, and his glovework at third base remains well-regarded. Statcast currently has him at one out below average but also tabs him in the 83rd percentile in terms of arm strength. He’s been credited with five Defensive Runs Saved already, and he’s sporting a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. To date, Chapman has only made two errors this season.
His ability to sustain his elite contact and avoid reverting to his bloated strikeout rates over the next five months will be particularly telling. While Chapman once looked like he’d be the third-best free agent at his own position, the equation has changed substantially. Both Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed long-term extensions to keep them in Boston and San Diego, respectively, leaving Chapman as the clear No. 1 third baseman on the market.
At this rate, however, Chapman won’t be just the clear top option at third base — he looks like he’ll be far and away the best position player on the market (excluding two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who’s in a free-agent tier unto himself). The upcoming free-agent class is utterly devoid of impact bats. Teoscar Hernandez, a resurgent Cody Bellinger, a somewhat resurgent Joey Gallo, and Hunter Renfroe look like the top bats who’ll be available. There’s still some time for that to change — a torrid summer from Javier Baez or Josh Bell could alter the calculus, for instance — but right now the market for position players is decidedly bleak.
When we were first kicking around thoughts and ideas for the initial installment of our 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes floated the idea of Chapman surpassing a $200MM guarantee. That was on April 4. The number felt jarring and unrealistic, and he received plenty of pushback on the idea due to Chapman’s hip surgery, uptick in strikeouts and general downturn in production since 2020.
Just a few weeks later, that type of contract feels far, far more plausible. Chapman has been the best hitter in baseball for nearly a quarter of the season, and the market surrounding him will be among the thinnest in recent memory. Perhaps that’ll lead to an uptick in trade activity throughout the league, but for teams looking to pad their roster without depleting the farm system (and without spending half a billion dollars on Ohtani), Chapman currently looks like he’ll be the best bet. Add in his defensive prowess and the fact that he won’t turn 31 until late next April — plus last year’s spike in ultra-long, CBT-skirting contracts — and it increasingly looks like Chapman and agent Scott Boras will be in prime position to break the bank.
Blue Jays Sign Wes Parsons To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Wes Parsons to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the club’s Florida Complex League affiliate but will presumably head to Triple-A once he gets into game shape.
Parsons, 30, was an undrafted free agent who nonetheless worked his way up to the major leagues a few years ago. He tossed 39 2/3 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons for Atlanta and Colorado. He posted an ERA of 5.67 in that time along with a 16.1% strikeout rate, 17.8% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. He was in the Rockies’ player pool during the 2020 season but didn’t get called up to the majors.
The righty went to Korea in 2021, signing with the NC Dinos of the KBO League and having some good results over there. He worked out of their rotation in 2021, tossing 133 innings over 24 starts with a 3.72 ERA. He struck out 148 of the 577 batters he faced, a 26.4% rate, though the 63 walks still amount to a high rate of 10.9%. He re-signed with the Dinos for 2022 but was only able to make eight starts with a 3.56 ERA. He was released in August while dealing with a back injury so the club could replace him with Matt Dermody, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. KBO teams only have three roster spots for foreign players and needed to remove the injured Parsons to get Dermody aboard.
Parsons will now return to North America by entering the farm system of the Blue Jays. It’s unclear if they are interested in him as a starter or reliever, but he will give them some non-roster depth either way. The club’s rotation is fairly stable at the moment, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi all healthy and depth starter Mitch White currently rehabbing in the minors. The relief corps has had a couple of recent injuries with Zach Pop and Adam Cimber on the injured list. Thomas Hatch and Trent Thornton are depth options on the 40-man roster, though White is out of options and will need a roster spot when his rehab is up, which could lead to the recently-recalled Jay Jackson getting optioned back to Buffalo in the near future.
AL East Notes: Cleavinger, Guerrero, Severino
Rays reliever Garrett Cleavinger suffered a knee injury during the 10th inning of today’s 7-6 victory over the Yankees. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Cleavinger’s knee “grabbed on him” during a critical rundown play that eventually saw Aaron Hicks thrown out at home plate while trying to score the go-ahead run. More will be known once Cleavinger undergoes testing, but Cash indicated that the left-hander will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list.
Like most hurlers on the league-leading Rays, Cleavinger is having a nice season, with a 3.00 ERA over 15 appearances and 12 innings pitched. A 13% walk rate and a .160 BABIP are red flags, but Cleavinger is missing a lot of bats (30.4% strikeout rate) and is doing an excellent job of inducing soft contact. Tampa has Colin Poche, Jalen Beeks, and Josh Fleming already in the bullpen as other left-handed options, though Fleming has recently been enlisted into bulk pitcher duty. If the Rays aren’t concerned about keeping the lefty/righty balance in their pen, they can turn to any number of arms in the farm system, and hopefully Cleavinger won’t be sidelined for too long.
More from around the AL East…
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has missed the Blue Jays‘ last two games due to soreness in his left wrist, though MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson tweets that Guerrero was feeling slightly better today. Naturally the Jays are being as cautious as possible with the star slugger, while also hoping that Guerrero can avoid an IL stint altogether. Toronto has off-days on both Monday and Thursday this week, and manager John Schneider said Guerrero will be re-evaluated prior to the Jays’ game Tuesday with the Phillies.
- Luis Severino is slated for a Triple-A rehab start on Wednesday or Thursday this week, as the Yankees right-hander gets closer to making his 2023 debut. Severino suffered a right lat strain near the end of Spring Training that resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL, though he told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he felt the Yankees were being too conservative in his rehab plan. For instance, Severino thought he could’ve started his rehab assignment last week rather than throwing a 40-pitch simulated game, as he felt working in a proper game environment with a pitch clock was more helpful in getting him ready for a big league return. New York manager Aaron Boone said that Severino will need to make at least two rehab starts before being reinstated from the IL, so given the team’s cautious approach, Severino might not be back until the Yankees’ May 23-25 series with the Orioles.
Blue Jays Acquire Tyler Heineman
As noted by Kevin Gorman of Tribune-Review Sports, the Pirates have traded catcher Tyler Heineman to the Blue Jays in exchange for minor league infielder Vinny Capra. Capra was assigned to Triple-A. Per The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, Toronto assigned Jordan Luplow outright to Triple-A to make room on the 40-man roster for Heineman, who was optioned to Triple-A. Heineman had been designated for assignment by the Pirates earlier this week.
This moves marks Heineman’s second stint with the Blue Jays. An eighth round pick by the Astros in the 2012 draft, Heineman was on his fourth organization by the time he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2019. He then appeared in 15 games for the Giants during the shortened 2020 season before signing a minor league deal in Toronto ahead of the 2022 season. Heineman appeared in ten games with the Jays before the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the club last May.
Heineman played in 52 games for the Pirates, by far the longest stint in the majors of his career. During that time, he slashed just .211/.277/.254 over 158 plate appearances. Following the 2023 campaign, Heineman was non-tendered by the Pirates but re-signed with the club on a minor league deal. He was selected to the roster early in the season and appeared in three games for the club before being DFA’d, a move which opened the door for his return to Toronto. Heineman figures to serve as catching depth for the Blue Jays in Triple-A. Prior to the addition of Heineman, the Blue Jays had no catchers on the 40-man roster besides their current tandem of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen.
Going the other way is Capra, a 26-year-old who made his MLB debut one year ago tomorrow. While he slashed just .200/.429/.200 in eight games with the Blue Jays last year, Capra has a solid .263/.347/.393 slash line over five seasons in the minors. Capra also brings versatility to the table, with considerable time in the outfield corners in addition to regular work at shortstop, second base, and third base. Capra was non-tendered by Toronto back in November, but re-signed with the club on a minor league deal just days later.
As for Luplow, the 29-year-old outfielder is in his seventh season in the big leagues. Toronto claimed him off waivers from the Braves earlier this season, but he struggled in a four game stint with the club, striking out four times and drawing a walk but recording no hits during that time. Luplow has since been optioned to Triple-A, and will now need to be re-added to the 40-man roster before he can return to big leagues with the Blue Jays. Despite his struggles this season, Luplow has been a solid bat in the past, with a career wRC+ of 101 including a 123 mark from 2019-2021.
Mariners Notes: Rodriguez, McGee, Flexen, Hernandez
Julio Rodriguez left today’s game due to lower back tightness, with manager Scott Servais telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that Rodriguez started feeling discomfort after a stolen base in the third inning. The outfielder remained in the game until AJ Pollock replaced Rodriguez in center field before the bottom of the sixth, but the Mariners opted to be a little cautious with the young star.
The injury doesn’t appear to be serious, as Servais indicated that Rodriguez might potentially be back in the lineup tomorrow. However, the Mariners have an off-day on Monday before facing the A’s on Tuesday, so the team might opt to give Rodriguez “a couple days down, [so] he will be okay when we go over to Oakland,” Servais said.
As Kramer notes, Rodriguez also dealt with lower back problems near the end of the last season, which ultimately resulted in a 10-day IL placement. That decision was made in part to get Rodriguez healthy prior to the playoffs, and he was able to return just before the end of the regular season prior to hitting .217/.357/.435 over 28 plate appearances during Seattle’s postseason run.
Rodriguez’s presence might have made a difference late in today’s 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays in 10 innings. One bright spot for the M’s was the performance of surprise starter Easton McGee, who allowed just one hit and one walk over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. McGee held Toronto hitless until his final batter faced, when Matt Chapman lined a double to center field to end the unlikely no-hit bid.
Chris Flexen had initially been slated to start on Saturday, but the Mariners instead called McGee up from Triple-A prior to the game. Going into the season, Flexen was projected to work as a reliever, but a spot in the rotation opened up when Robbie Ray was sidelined with a flexor tendon injury that ended up requiring a season-ending surgery. Unfortunately for Flexen, he hasn’t risen to the occasion, with a 10.38 ERA over 17 1/3 innings in four starts as Ray’s replacement.
In addition to Monday’s off-day, the Mariners are also off on May 11 and May 18, giving the team some opportunity to reset their rotation multiple times. As a result, the M’s might only need a fifth starter twice within the next three-plus weeks. It would certainly seem like McGee has earned another look, but whether it’s McGee, Flexen, or another pitcher used as the fifth starter, the Mariners will get some time to evaluate and prepare for the longer-term question of how they’ll replace Ray.
McGee was making his first Major League start and just his second career appearance in the Show, after debuting with three innings of relief work (allowing four hits and one unearned run) as a member of the Rays in their 3-1 loss to the Astros on October 2, 2022. Tampa opted to designate McGee for assignment after that game, with the Red Sox quickly claiming the right-hander off waivers. The Mariners then acquired McGee in a trade for cash considerations in November.
A fourth-round pick for the Rays in the 2016 draft, McGee isn’t a hard thrower or much of a strikeout pitcher, with a modest 17.47% strikeout rate over 485 1/3 career innings in the minors. McGee worked to a 4.30 ERA over his minor league career by inducing a lot of grounders and avoiding walks, though his walk rate with Triple-A Tacoma this year has risen to a still-solid 7.6%. McGee largely struggled at Triple-A Durham in 2022, but he has done much better with the Mariners’ top affiliate, with a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings for Tacoma in 2023.
This weekend’s series marked Teoscar Hernandez‘s first time in Toronto since the November trade that sent him from the Jays to the Mariners. Interestingly, M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and Corey Brock that Hernandez might have come to Seattle much earlier, as “most of the work we did on the Teoscar trade actually happened in Spring Training before the [2022] season began. We tried so hard to pick him up before the season started and talked through a lot of players.”
It makes for an interesting what-if, as Hernandez being dealt prior to the season might have greatly changed the trajectory for two teams that reached the postseason (and faced each other in the Wild Card Series). For Seattle, it could be that the M’s pivoted to the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker trade with the Reds after not reaching an agreement with Toronto over Hernandez, or perhaps DiPoto’s front office might have even explored adding Hernandez in addition to the two former Cincinnati players. That would’ve made for a crowded outfield in Seattle, but it’s possible the Mariners might have sent one or two of those excess outfielders to the Blue Jays as part of a projected Hernandez swap. Erik Swanson may have still be part of such a trade but likely not as the primary piece, given how Swanson hadn’t yet had his 2022 breakout season, and Hernandez would’ve commanded a higher trade ask since he had two remaining years of arbitration control.
Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?
We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.
Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)
Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs
The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.
Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.
In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.
Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9
Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.
Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.
All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.
Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs
After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.
Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.
So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.
Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9
Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.
Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:
Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.
Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.
Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.
Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs
Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.
Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.
As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.
AL East Notes: Rodon, Pearson, Tate
The Yankees are still waiting on Carlos Rodon‘s team debut after signing him to a six-year contract this offseason. The lefty took a positive step this weekend when he resumed playing catch, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. The goal is for Rodon to continue throwing throughout the upcoming week, though there’s no concrete timetable for when he might take the mound for the big league club just yet. Rodon pitched just two official innings during Grapefruit League play this spring before a forearm strain sidelined him. He’s spent the first several weeks of the year rehabbing that injury, but a recent flare of back pain has further slowed the process for the team’s $162MM co-ace. The Yanks still rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.53 ERA from their rotation, though that’s due largely to a superhuman start from Gerrit Cole (0.79 ERA in 34 innings). Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 frames of his own, but each of Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito have pitched to a 4.50 ERA or higher through their first four to five starts of the season.
More from the division…
- Former top prospect Nate Pearson‘s start to the season in the Triple-A Buffalo bullpen is garnering plenty of attention, and he figures to be among the top candidates for a look whenever the Blue Jays look to the minors for some reinforcements, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. As Nicholson-Smith points out, the Jays haven’t made a single move pertaining to their bullpen yet in 2023. The Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley wrote yesterday that the Pearson watch is picking up some steam. Much of the Toronto ‘pen has performed well in 2023, with Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards and Tim Mayza out to nice starts. Both Yimi Garcia and Adam Cimber have allowed runs in three of their past four outings, though, and Anthony Bass has yielded at least one run in four of his past five trips to the mound. Pearson has a 2.16 ERA and 45.7% strikeout rate in 8 1/3 innings to begin the year in Triple-A, although he’s also walked 14.3% of his opponents and thrown three wild pitches, so his command hasn’t exactly been pristine. The former first-round pick was once ranked as one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball but has seen his career slowed by repeated injuries.
- Orioles righty Dillon Tate is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment this week and told reporters that he’ll likely need five or six appearances before he’s ready to make his 2023 debut (Twitter link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). Tate, who’ll turn 29 in a week, suffered a flexor strain during his offseason program back in November and hasn’t pitched yet this year (spring training or regular season). The former No. 4 overall draft pick stepped up as a key setup man in Baltimore’s bullpen last year when he tossed 73 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. Tate’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a bit below the league average, but both his 5.5% walk rate and 57.4% ground-ball rate were outstanding. He finished out that breakout season with five saves and 16 holds.
Santiago Espinal Exits Game With Right Wrist Contusion
Blue Jays infielder Santiago Espinal exited Saturday’s game against the Yankees with what the team called a right wrist contusion, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Espinal was hit by a Gerrit Cole pitch.
Next steps for Espinal aren’t known at this stage, although more should be known after today’s match is completed.
Espinal is off to a slow start to the year, hitting just .114/.162/.200 through his first 37 plate appearances (entering play today). The hit by pitch occurred in his first at bat of the day.
The 28-year-old has been a solid enough contributor for the Blue Jays over the past few seasons, putting up good defensive numbers and providing some value with the bat. He debuted in 2020, and posted a .280/.338/.378 line with nine home runs between 2020-22.
Defensively, Espinal has primarily been handling second base this season, but has also filled in at third and shortstop. At second, Espinal was worth ten Outs Above Average in 2022.
While it’s not yet known if Espinal will be forced to miss any time, the Blue Jays are fairly well stocked at second with Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio the internal options to handle the bulk of Espinal’s playing time.
2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.
For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.
There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.
Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.
Position Players
- Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
- Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
- Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
- Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
- Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.
Pitchers
- Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
- Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
- Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
- Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
- Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
- Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
- Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
- Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.