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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Curtis Granderson Clears Revocable Waivers

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Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson has cleared revocable waivers, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Like his teammate Jay Bruce, he can now be traded without being claimed. Unlike Bruce, Granderson does not have a limited no-trade clause.

There were various reports about the possibility the Mets would trade Granderson prior to the July 31 deadline, and he was linked to the Brewers. In the end, obviously, the Mets held onto him. Granderson is in the middle of what’s become a fairly typical Granderson season — he has a very low batting average (.223), but compensates for it with walks (48 in 358 plate appearances) and good power (14 home runs). The 36-year-old doesn’t have the speed he once did and rates as a below-average defender in center, although he still grades out fairly well in right. He rated fifth in our recent list of the top August trade candidates.

Granderson is in the last season of the four-year, $60MM deal he signed with the Mets in December 2013. He’s owed a bit under $5MM for the remainder of the season.

AL Notes: Trade Chatter, Richards, M’s, Rangers, Profar, Draft

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The trade deadline chatter hasn’t really picked up yet, perhaps in large part owing to the tightly packed American League. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag recently took his weekly spin around the A.L., providing a few items of note. While there has been a bit of buzz around Justin Verlander, the Tigers haven’t asked him to provide a list of teams to which he’d permit a trade. The Astros, meanwhile, seem to be hoping for a chance at adding a difference-making starter, but don’t know whether such an arm will end up being made available. And the White Sox, unsurprisingly, are ready and willing to get deals done.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • It’s still not clear when the Angels can expect righty Garrett Richards to return, but Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times provides an update (Twitter links). The biceps nerve irritation he has experienced isn’t completely relieved, but it has improved. Just when he’ll be cleared to  throw, though, has yet to be determined — and no doubt there’ll be a lengthy and cautious build-up once the medical staff gives a go-ahead.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto suggests that he still doesn’t perceive a need to shake things up too drastically at the deadline, despite a lull that has the M’s now sitting four games under .500. As MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports, Dipoto says that the team’s “roster plan has never really changed.” While buy and sell-side opportunities could arise at the deadline, it seems a major shift in either direction is unlikely. Starting pitching, clearly, is a prime need. “We’re not going to empty both barrels to try to go out and find the ace to perch atop the rotation to take us to the promised land, because that guy doesn’t exist,” said Dipoto. But he also noted that the trade deadline is but one of “two windows when you can access starting pitching” and promised at least to “stay in tune with” the market for starters.
  • There’s a similar sentiment in Texas, it seems. It would take “unique circumstances” for the Rangers to sell veteran players at the deadline, GM Jon Daniels tells Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram. While Texas is likely only competing for a Wild Card at this point, neither is the organization facing any need to trim salary, per the report. With confidence within the organization seemingly still running high, it appears the likeliest scenario is that the team will mostly look to maintain its roster through the non-waiver trade period.
  • Meanwhile, it’s still unclear what will happen with Rangers infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, as Wilson writes. Presumably, the still youthful former top prospect could end up playing a significant role with Texas or be utilized as a trade chip over the summer. For the time being, he’s receiving only brief stints in the majors. Regardless of how things turn out, Profar says that he’s dealing with things by playing his hardest wherever that may be — mostly, this year, at Triple-A. He has hit well at Round Rock, slashing .303/.376/.444 in 223 plate appearances this year, and would still be an interesting trade candidate to dangle this summer.
  • The Rays failed to sign supplemental first-round draft pick Drew Rasmussen, as MLB.com’s Jim Callis first tweeted. It seems that Rasmussen will not be turned loose in free agency, as John Manuel of Baseball America writes; instead, he’ll likely head back to Oregon State for his senior year. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is still hoping the league will award it a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. (While the organization did not make a sufficient offer to do so, it feels that there were issues with Rasmussen’s pre-draft MRIs.) Meanwhile, Orioles fourth-rounder Jack Conlon will be granted unrestricted free agency after going unsigned, as BA’s Hudson Belinsky explains. That gives him the option of signing on with any MLB organization — without being capped by bonus pools — or instead heading to college. Angels fifth-rounder Joe Booker was the only other player from the first ten rounds of the draft to go unsigned, as Belinsky tweeted he’ll instead honor a commitment to South Alabama.

Giants Place Mark Melancon On 10-Day DL

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The Giants have placed closer Mark Melancon on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He is dealing with the same pronator issue that forced him out earlier this year. Dan Slania will take the open roster spot.

Melancon, 32, has not quite looked himself since joining the Giants on a four-year, $62MM deal over the winter. Through 20 2/3 innings on the year, he has allowed ten earned runs on 25 hits. Though he still maintains typically strong strikeout and walk numbers — 8.3 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 — the veteran has also coughed up three long balls and seen his groundball rate drop to 50.8% with his swinging-strike rate falling to 9.7% (both far lower than in recent seasons).

Despite enduring a bit of a rough stretch, Melancon could still feature as a trade candidate over the summer. That all depends upon just how interested the Giants are in shedding from future salary — while also embarking upon another search for a closer. (Interestingly, recently acquired righty Sam Dyson will take over closing duties for the time being after washing out of that role with the Rangers.) Though San Francisco is buried in the standings, the organization still has an extensive array of high-priced veteran players and seems likely to attempt to contend again in 2018.

The injury, though, functions as a major bit of uncertainty. It’s still possible that he could be dealt if he’s able to return and pitch effectively before the deadline. And Melancon’s contract is big enough that he could also be moved in August. But the forearm certainly enhances the risk in the hefty remaining value on the deal, particularly in the case of an older relief pitcher.

Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich

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The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.

At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.

Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.

Christian Yelich

Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.

Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.

Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).

While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.

Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.

If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole

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Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.

While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.

Gerrit Cole

The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.

Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.

Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.

Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.

In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Howie Kendrick

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Howie Kendrick’s strong start to his Phillies tenure was cut short by an oblique strain, so the veteran will be playing in his just 11th game of the 2017 campaign when the Phils activate him from the disabled list tomorrow as expected.  His return should provide some on-field help to a Phillies team that now owns the worst record in baseball (17-31 after today’s loss), though Kendrick’s greatest value to the team may come as a trade chip before the July 31 deadline.

Of course, any interested teams will need to assure themselves that Kendrick (who turns 34 in July) is healthy before entering into trade talks.  Kendrick’s .333/.395/.487 start to the year can almost surely be chalked up to the small sample size of 43 plate appearances, though Kendrick will naturally need to produce at the plate to show teams that he still swings a dangerous bat, particularly after his disappointing 2016 season.

Howie KendrickOver 543 PA with the Dodgers last season, Kendrick hit .255/.326/.366, with his average and slugging percentage counting as new career lows.  A lack of batted-ball luck played a part, as Kendrick only managed a slightly above-average .301 BABIP last season, well below his .338 career mark.  The rest of his advanced metrics, however, were largely in line with his career norms, so it could be that Kendrick simply had a bit of an off-year.  In fact, on the positive side, Kendrick’s 9.2% walk rate was a new career high, and he was maintaining that same patience early in 2017 (with the small sample size caveat).

Beyond what Kendrick can bring to a lineup, the veteran’s ability to play multiple positions will also draw him some attention at the deadline.  After years as an everyday second baseman and occasional outfielder, Kendrick made 79 starts for the Dodgers in left field last year, 23 starts at second, 14 starts at third base and seven starts at first base.  While he is likely somewhat of a defensive liability as a regular second baseman at this point in his career, Kendrick did a solid job in left last year and can likely at least hold his own at third or first in limited action.

Though Kendrick will get his fair share of playing time by moving around the diamond, the Phillies since they have a young player at all of his positions.  Aaron Altherr has blossomed since taking over as the regular left fielder in Kendrick’s absence, and Tommy Joseph, Cesar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco are all still potential infield building blocks (though Franco is off to a rough start).  Altherr could be shifted over to right to supplant Michael Saunders, though one figures prospect Roman Quinn will also eventually figure into the outfield mix.

Using the top 30 trade deadline power rankings from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd as reference, it’s a pretty pitching-heavy list of trade candidates likely to be available this July.  Of the position players that could be on the market, few have Kendrick’s defensive versatility, or reasonable price tag both in prospect cost and salary owed (roughly $6.7MM between now and season’s end).

It is quite possible Philadelphia could even eat some of that remaining salary since the team will be motivated to get something back at midseason.  As recently noted by Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Pat Neshek is the only one of the veterans acquired by the Phillies last winter who has performed well this year; Kendrick has been on the DL, Clay Buchholz is out for the season, and Saunders and Joaquin Benoit have struggled.  Beyond that group, Jeremy Hellickson (who accepted a qualifying offer to remain with the Phillies) has also not pitched well, leaving the Phillies with a pretty bare cupboard of trade chips unless someone besides Neshek starts producing.  Kendrick, in a way, has done less damage to his trade value simply by missing time with a not-too-serious injury than Hellickson, Saunders and Benoit have by playing poorly.

The Phillies didn’t give up too much to acquire Kendrick from L.A. (Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney, neither of whom is still in the Dodgers organization), but they will likely be motivated sellers in order to get some return from their veteran investments.  Kendrick keeping up the .883 OPS would be great for all parties, though simply a return to “the old Howie Kendrick” would be good enough to make him a sought-after trade piece for teams in need of position depth.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Todd Frazier

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There’s no denying that the White Sox are engaged in an aggressive rebuilding plan. After all, the organization has now traded away two of its best, established MLB assets in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and is said to be engaged in talks to do the same with Jose Quintana. If those affordable, controllable players can be had, then surely it stands to reason that more expensive, shorter-term assets are also on the table.

While players like David Robertson and Melky Cabrera make good sense as trade chips, perhaps no single player on the ChiSox roster carries a “trade me” sign quite as visible as that of third baseman Todd Frazier. Unlike Robertson, he’s entering the final year of contract control. And unlike Cabrera — who’s owed $15MM in the final year of his deal — Frazier is still projects to be useful in the field.

Frazier did take a big step back in the eyes of defensive metrics last year after consistently rating as a plus gloveman at third. And his .225/.302/.464 batting line represented his worst offensive output since a down 2013 season. But Frazier is young enough (31 in February) to think that he can regain his lost step at third, and perhaps its unwise to put too much stock in one year’s worth of defensive ratings given his strong track record. Also, he still swatted forty home runs in 2016 — rather an impressive total from a player capable of playing the hot corner — and boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.6% (though his K rate also crept up). Frazier still runs well, too, as he swiped 15 bags in 2016.

Really, if you’re looking for a solid everyday player who could bounce back to being an All-Star-level performer, there aren’t many better bets than Frazier. His .236 BABIP makes him an obvious candidate for some positive regression, though it’s fair to note that he earned that mark to some extent by putting the ball in the air more than ever before (48.7%) and posting-career worst line-drive (15.7%) and soft contact (20.7%) rates. With Frazier showing greater selectivity than ever and maintaining his career swinging-strike rates, there’s hope that he can boost his OBP while retaining much of the power he has achieved by gunning for the long ball.

Even if he remains much the same hitter he was in 2016, Frazier would look to be a more defensively useful version of Mark Trumbo. Frazier will only require a single-season commitment, which is appealing. And he could also allow a new acquiring team to recoup a draft pick after the season, if he proves himself worthy of a qualifying offer.

Still, there’s probably a reason that it has mostly been crickets on the demand side for Frazier. In particular, there just isn’t that much demand for third basemen around the game. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest, but ended up bringing back top-available free agent Justin Turner. And the open market still includes at least two useful options at the hot corner in Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe. Then, there’s the fact that MLBTR projects him to earn a hefty $13.5MM, which would make a dent on any team’s balance sheet.

Under the circumstances, the Sox could take Frazier into the year and hope he becomes a summer trade chip (or, perhaps, a QO candidate after the season). Holding onto him is hardly an unfathomable outcome if there’s truly no serious interest, particularly since there doesn’t appear to be a major salary-trimming imperative behind the team’s sell-off. Indeed, many of the teams discussed below seem rather unlikely to offer enough of a return to force the White Sox’ hand. But several organizations that might not give prospects and take on $13.5MM or so in salary right now may well end up having a need in the middle of the season.

It still makes eminent sense for the South Siders to explore all avenues for a trade this winter, but a deal probably isn’t as likely as it might seem at first glance. Let’s take a look at some hypothetical suitors (listed in alphabetical order):

[Team links to MLB Depth Charts]

Athletics — Sure, Oakland has Ryon Healy at third, and he’s more than entitled to a full-season run after his impressive debut. But he has never been viewed as much of a defensive player, and could simply be shifted over to first to make way for Frazier. The A’s have already shown a somewhat surprising amount of payroll availability in pursuing Edwin Encarnacion; adding Frazier could have nearly the same overall impact at a lesser cost (at least, in dollars) because of the defensive upgrade he’d bring.

Braves — While Atlanta seems amenable to going with Adonis Garcia at third, there’s little reason to expect much out of him. The organization can also plan to bump Sean Rodriguez to the hot corner if and when Ozzie Albies rises to the majors. And it’s fair to wonder at what point the Braves will stop taking on 2017 salary. Still, after expending some resources for near-term improvements, perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a plausible contender (with a few good breaks).

Cardinals — St. Louis was reportedly lingering around on both Turner and Encarnacion, suggesting that the club is intrigued at the prospect of boosting its infield productivity. Like those possibilities, adding Frazier would likely mean trading another player (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, or Jedd Gyorko) to create space. And it’s not clear whether the Cards would see enough upside in Frazier to go through with all that. Still, it’s a reasonably plausible landing spot.

Dodgers — Any continued interest depends upon whether the Dodgers would consider playing Turner at second base. He has seen less and less time there over the years, and didn’t make a single appearance at second in 2016, so there’s no particular reason to think that Los Angeles would move him to make way for Frazier. Adding a true second baseman still seems much more likely.

Giants — Eduardo Nunez remains the odds-on favorite to man third, in concert with Connor Gillaspie. But if San Francisco feels it’s better able to improve its offensive production with Frazier than by adding a corner outfielder, with Nunez turning back into a quality utilityman, then perhaps the Giants could make for an interesting fit.

Orioles — The O’s are said to be looking at sluggers, and may prefer one that plays the outfield, but there still could be a fit here. Frazier could spell Manny Machado at third and Chris Davis at first while lining up as the DH. If shortstop J.J. Hardy needs a rest, is hurt, or isn’t effective, then Machado could slide in for him and Frazier could return to full-time duty at the hot corner. It’s not a perfect fit, but Frazier could be a more appealing target for Baltimore than the remaining open-market options.

Rangers — Texas is in the market for a first baseman and/or DH, and might not hate the idea of adding someone who could fill in for Adrian Beltre at the hot corner at times. But there are plenty of hitters in free agency, and the Rangers have other infielders who could man third, so this doesn’t feel terribly likely as things stand.

Red Sox — Boston has given signals that its offseason is largely in the books, but a pivot can’t be ruled out. As things stand, the organization appears to be putting an awful lot of trust in Pablo Sandoval. There’s room for Frazier’s salary, perhaps, after dealing Clay Buchholz. He could split time between first and third (with Mitch Moreland), allowing Hanley Ramirez to be a full-time DH while increasing the Sox’ platoon opportunities.

Rockies — Somewhat like the Orioles, the Rockies could potentially have interest in Frazier to fill a different need. If Colorado trades an outfielder and moves Ian Desmond to the outfield, it would need a regular first baseman. While Frazier’s true utility is somewhat wasted there, that’s perhaps less true than it is in Desmond’s case.

Yankees — Chase Headley has underwhelmed with the bat, so perhaps Frazier could mix in with him and first baseman Greg Bird to inject some pop and increase the Yanks’ overall versatility. But New York still has other needs, and Frazier would represent a pretty significant cost to function in that kind of capacity. Unless Headley were to be dealt, the fit is something of a stretch.

Others — You could argue for the Pirates, especially if Jung Ho Kang is lost, though perhaps corresponding moves would be needed to make it even plausible that the Bucs would take on that much salary (particularly with David Freese and Josh Bell already on hand). The Indians might have made sense were it not for the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion, but Frazier seems too costly and uncertain to justify relegating Jose Ramirez to corner outfield/utility duties. It’s hard to see the Rays coughing up the cash (and talent) needed to land Frazier, though he’d be a possible first base/DH candidate in Tampa Bay. The Marlins need a righty bat, but re-upped Martin Prado to play third and seem to like Justin Bour as at least a semi-regular at first; without a DH slot, there likely isn’t any kind of match there. Likewise, you could argue for the Mets to add Frazier (at least assuming they deal one or more outfielders); he could share time with Lucas Duda at first and otherwise play third, in theory, but this seems rather implausible unless/until New York trades one or more outfielders and the team has reason to believe that David Wright won’t be able to play in 2017. It’s at least somewhat more possible to imagine the Mariners or Blue Jays taking a look, but those also feel like iffy fits. Neither needs a third baseman or DH, and while they could stand to add Frazier’s pop at first, the presences of Dan Vogelbach and Justin Smoak reduce the utility of adding a fairly expensive piece like Frazier.

Rich Hill Doubtful To Make Next Start

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Athletics lefty Rich Hill is doubtful to make a start on Sunday, the next open day in Oakland’s rotation, manager Bob Melvin told reporters including MLB.com’s Jane Lee (Twitter link). Hill left his most recent start after only five pitches when a blister on his left middle finger popped.

It seems that the ill-timed blister is still not responding well enough to get Hill back on the bump. Oakland now has a razor-thin margin for error in getting the southpaw back in action before the trade deadline. While it’s theoretically possible that he could be traded without making another start, there’s little question that it would seriously hamper his value — particularly given the 36-year-old’s lack of a big league track record.

Hill is already a highly unconventional trade candidate, having resuscitated his career late last season. He has been nothing short of masterful, though, since signing with the A’s over the winter, and carries a 2.25 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 76 frames on the year.

Oakland surely felt it had dodged a bullet when Hill made it back from an earlier groin issue without any ill effects. In his first two starts of this month, he delivered 12 innings over which he permitted just three earned runs on seven hits and four walks, striking out 16 along the way. Excepting that most recent, truncated outing, however, he has now gone two weeks without pitching.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the potential market for Hill’s services, discussing the impact of the blister — which now seems only to be rising in relevance. As the list of potentially available starters shows, there’s a significant dearth of pure rental rotation additions out there for the taking. But at this point, Hill won’t be able to log two more starts unless he’s able to make an appearance early next week. Odds are, it seems, the A’s will be banking quite a bit on a single remaining outing before accepting final bids on the unique lefty.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Brewers, Liriano

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Injured Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber probably isn’t going anywhere this summer, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein gave strong signals that he’s got little interest in seeing Schwarber return from his knee injury in another uniform. While there’s always plenty of posturing this time of year, Epstein certainly made clear that there’s a higher-than-usual barrier to a trade involving the catcher/outfielder.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • The Brewers are winding up for what looks to be an important trade deadline, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. Milwaukee has several notable names that rate amongst the top twenty trade candidates this summer, but few represent straightforward decisions. GM David Stearns says that “the calls have picked up over the last week to ten days,” though it’s “still largely informational.” Right now, the club is getting a feel for the teams it is looking to target in reaching agreements over the coming month. “You try to get a sense of what other clubs are doing, where you might have fits, so you can begin to do additional target work on certain target organizations,” says Stearns. “At this point, we feel well-prepared in terms of organizations we’re likely to have serious discussions with.”
  • Selling was never in the plans for the Pirates, but the club increasingly looks to be in a tough spot — in no small part due to the struggles of lefty Francisco Liriano, who owns a 5.33 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 on the year. Manager Clint Hurdle tells John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times that Liriano is still failing to command the ball with consistency. “Sometimes, it’s hard to pitch when you aren’t feeling the way you’ve felt when you’ve had success,” Hurdle said. “We’re going to continue to peel back the layers and try to push through this. We’ll continue to look at video. We’ll see if we can find some answers.” We have heard at least some suggestion that there’d be interest around the league in the talented lefty, who had turned in three-straight stellar campaigns heading into 2016. But he’s owed $13MM both this year and next, and surely any acquiring team would be looking for a buy-low opportunity.
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