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MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Sign Jorge Lopez

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Jorge Lopez, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Lopez will receive $3MM in guaranteed money in the one-year contract, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports, plus some more money is available in incentives. The Nats have officially announced the signing, and also announced that right-hander Amos Willingham was designated for assignment to create roster space for Lopez.

Lopez, 32 next month, spent the first several years of his big league career as a below-average swingman. He made his big league debut with the Brewers back in 2015, and in parts of six seasons with Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Baltimore he posted a 6.04 ERA (76 ERA+) with a 5.15 FIP in 102 appearances, 58 of which were starts. After posting ERAs north of six in three consecutive seasons as a swingman from 2019 to 2021, the Orioles converted Lopez to short relief full-time ahead of the 2022 season.

From there, his career has taken a major step forward. His breakout began with a sterling 1.68 ERA in the first half while collecting 19 saves as their closer. He was traded to the Twins ahead of that summer’s trade deadline and faded somewhat down the stretch, but still finished the season with an excellent 2.54 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.42 FIP in 71 innings of work. While his 10.4% walk rate left something to be desired, he combined it with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate and a fantastic 57.8% groundball rate, giving him strong peripherals that suggested he could have a future in the late innings.

Unfortunately, Lopez was unable to recreate that excellent 2022 season the following year. He took a massive step back in 2023 while spending time on the injured list for mental health reasons, and when he was on the mound he pitched to a 5.95 ERA in 59 innings of work. Nonetheless, Lopez managed to latch on with the Mets last year on a big league deal. His tenure in Queens was brief, as while he posted decent middle relief numbers (including a 3.76 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work) he was designated for assignment in late May following a controversy regarding a post-game interview where he seemingly referred to the Mets as the “worst team” in the league, though in the aftermath of the incident it appeared that Lopez had actually referred to himself as the “worst teammate” in the league.

That rocky exit from the Mets, in conjunction with his difficult 2023 season, left Lopez to catch on with the Cubs on a minor league deal. He made the most of the opportunity, however, and looked every bit like the dominant late-inning arm he had been for the Orioles in 2022. In 26 2/3 innings of work for Chicago last year, Lopez posted an excellent 2.03 ERA. He struck out 29.2% of his opponents during that stretch with a walk rate of just 7.5%, and his 59.1% groundball rate was nothing short of elite. Taking that fantastic work on the north side together with his time in Queens paints a picture of Lopez as an intriguing, if somewhat risky, late-inning option as he posted a 2.89 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 53 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate and 51% groundball rate.

Lopez is now headed to the Nationals, where he appears likely to be tasked with the closer role barring another external addition. That role had belonged to Kyle Finnegan in recent years, but the club non-tendered him back in November due to his rapidly escalating price in arbitration. Finnegan was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8.6MM salary in 2025, and Lopez is signing in D.C. for just over a third of that amount after posting better rate numbers than Finnegan did in 2024.

The addition of Lopez brings the Nationals’ payroll up to a projected $110MM for 2025 according to RosterResource. That’s $20MM below the club’s 2024 payroll, meaning they should have room for further upgrades to the roster should opportunities arise in trade or on the free agent market. That said, it’s already been a fairly busy winter for the Nationals. Lopez joins rotation additions Trevor Williams and Michael Soroka on the pitching staff, while Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe were brought in to bolster the club’s lineup. There’s still room for improvement, however, particularly in the bullpen and at third base.

As for Willingham, the right-hander has been and up-and-down reliever for the Nationals over the past two seasons. To this point in his career, he’s posted a 7.11 ERA in 25 1/3 innings of work at the major league level with just one appearance for Washington in 2024. He posted a decent 3.69 ERA for Triple-A Rochester last year, however, and it’s not impossible to imagine a rival club having some interest in Willingham as optionable relief depth. Going forward, the Nationals will have one week to either work out a trade involving the right-hander or try to put him through waivers. If he clears waivers unclaimed, the Nationals will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as a non-roster depth option.

17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Sign Amed Rosario

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The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve signed infielder Amed Rosario to a one-year contract. Right-hander Joan Adon was designated for assignment to make space on the roster. Rosario will earn $2MM on the deal, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s represented by Octagon.

Rosario, 29, was a solid regular in Cleveland from 2021-22, serving as the Guardians’ everyday shortstop and posting a combined .282/.316/.406 batting line (106 wRC+) with terrific baserunning but subpar defense at his position.

In 2023, however, Rosario fell into a prolonged slump and was eventually designated for assignment and traded to the Dodgers, for whom he filled a utility role down the stretch. He signed on with the Rays on a $1.5MM deal to hold down a similar multi-position role in 2024 before again being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. His second stint in L.A. lasted only days, however, as he was designated for assignment and landed with the Reds thereafter.

Over the past two seasons, Rosario has still managed to hit .270 thanks to his speed and bat-to-ball skills, but it’s been a hollow batting average accompanied by paltry marks in on-base percentage (.305) and slugging percentage (.379). He’s essentially been a singles hitter who does most of his damage against lefties while contributing shaky defense at multiple positions. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both panned his work at shortstop for some time, and he’s since dabbled at second base, third base and in all three outfield positions. Second base is the only position at which he’s drawn passable grades by measure of those two public metrics.

Though it’s been a lackluster couple years for Rosario all around, he still possesses plus speed (91st percentile of MLB players, per Statcast) and showed improved life on his throws last year (72nd percentile arm strength). He draws poor grades for his range despite that footspeed. Rosario has fanned in 19.3% of his plate appearances since 2023 — right in line with his career 19.6% mark. He’s all but allergic to drawing a walk, evidenced by a career 4.3% rate and a career-low 2.6% mark in 2024. However, he makes enough contact and runs so well that he’s capable of sustaining quality batting averages at the very least.

With the Nats, Rosario again figures to slide into a utility role. Washington has Luis Garcia Jr. at second base and CJ Abrams at shortstop. Rosario could factor into the competition at third base, where Jose Tena and Trey Lipscomb are also in the mix for the Opening Day job. However, prospects Brady House and Cayden Wallace are both in the upper minors. House, a former first-round pick and consensus top-100 prospect, hit well in Double-A last year but struggled in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching. Wallace, acquired at the deadline in the trade sending Hunter Harvey to the Royals, topped out in Double-A and is a bit further behind House in his minor league progression. With a strong start to the season, either could plausibly find his way to the majors and earn a look at the hot corner.

It’s also plausible that Rosario could be deployed in a straightforward platoon with Garcia. He’s a career .298/.337/.460 hitter against southpaws compared to Garcia’s lifetime .250/.269/.356 slash against lefties. Garcia has been far better against righties, hitting .277/.313/.428 in his career — including a personal-best .288/.326/.469 during last year’s breakout season.

Washington’s signing of Rosario will come at the expense of the 26-year-old Adon, who’s pitched for the Nats in each of the past four seasons. A 2016 international signee out of the Dominican Republic, Adon has logged 132 1/3 innings in the majors but never found consistency; he carries a career 6.66 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and 45.3% ground-ball rate. He ranked as highly as No. 7 among Nationals’ prospects back in 2022, per Baseball America.

Adon averages nearly 95 mph on his heater and has been a durable rotation member in the upper minors, but he’s never replicated the strong 2019 season that put him on the prospect map in the first place. He’s had some work as a reliever in the minors recently, and he has enough velocity as a starter to create some intrigue about how he’d work as a power-armed bullpen piece. Command has been a consistent issue for the big righty, however, and he’s out of minor league options — meaning the Nats would’ve had to carry him on the Opening Day roster or else designate him for assignment a few months from now anyway.

Washington will have five days to trade Adon. At that point, he’d need to be placed on waivers (a 48-hour process). If he clears, he could be retained as non-roster depth. Within a week’s time, he’ll know the outcome of today’s DFA.

Latest On Financial Dispute Between Nationals And Orioles, MASN

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The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is co-owned by the Orioles and Nationals, although the Orioles have a controlling stake. Since the network was established in 2005, the two clubs have regularly fought over how much money the Nationals should receive in rights fees each season. These disagreements have led to several court battles over the years.

Earlier this week, the Nationals filed a petition with the Supreme Court of New York, requesting that the court confirm a decision from MLB’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee. The committee found that the Orioles and MASN owe the Nationals approximately $320.5MM in TV rights fees to cover the 2022-26 seasons (per Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). That would mean around $203.9MM in backpay for the past three seasons ($72.8MM for 2022 and ’23 and $58.3MM for ’24) and another $58.3MM in 2025 and ’26. To put those numbers in context, RosterResource estimates the Nationals spent around $130MM on player payroll in 2024.

As Weyrich points out, a quick resolution to this petition would mean the two clubs will be in agreement on a deal that holds for multiple years to come for the first time since 2012. As for whether or not the two sides will be able to stay out of court in 2027 and beyond? That remains to be seen. Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein previously spoke about his desire to move these discussions “away from the lawyers” but stopped far short of making any promises. “I don’t have an easy answer yet,” he said. “If it was easy, it would have been resolved” (per Weyrich).

The Nationals have been active this offseason, trading for Nathaniel Lowe, signing Josh Bell and Michael Soroka, and re-signing Trevor Williams. However, they have not made the kind of big splash (or even medium splash) that some thought they’d make this winter. With a projected 2025 payroll that is still $22MM below last year’s final figure and the possibility of more financial certainty if this $320.5MM agreement is confirmed, perhaps the Nationals will continue adding this offseason to supplement a roster full of talented but unproven young players.

Trevor Williams To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation

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The Nationals brought Trevor Williams back on a two-year, $14MM free agent deal this week. The veteran righty spoke with the Washington beat (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) this afternoon and indicated he’ll be part of Dave Martinez’s rotation.

While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.

All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.

If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.

Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.

Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.

Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.

Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams

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The Nationals officially announced the re-signing of Trevor Williams to a two-year free agent deal. It’s reportedly a $14MM guarantee for the John Boggs & Associates client. The veteran right-hander turns 33 next April.

The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington. Despite an uneven performance over the past two seasons, he showed enough upside to convince the club to bring him back on an almost identical deal. In 2023, the righty was an innings eater for the Nationals, providing them with 144 1/3 frames in 30 starts. It was the first time he passed the 100-inning threshold since 2019. However, there was little else to like about his performance. No NL pitcher (min. 140 IP) had a higher ERA than Williams that year. He also finished among the bottom five in strikeout rate, SIERA, and xERA. Things turned especially sour at the end of the year; he gave up 33 runs (32 earned) in 35 2/3 innings over his final eight starts.

The 2024 season was a completely different story. Williams got off to a red-hot start, pitching to a 2.22 ERA across 11 outings in April and May. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do the one thing he did well in 2023: stay on the field. A flexor muscle strain in his pitching arm kept him out for nearly four months from May to September. He continued to see great results in two starts upon his return (10 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), but he finished the year with just 13 starts and 66 2/3 innings under his belt.

Most of the underlying data indicates Williams wasn’t quite as dominant as he seemed on the surface. His .267 BABIP and 4.2% home run-to-fly ball ratios were well below his career averages, while his 80.2% left-on-base percentage was well above his typical rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate marked a significant improvement from the year before, but it was only a touch above league average for a starting pitcher. Thus, his 3.96 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.03 ERA.

Regardless, Williams was still a productive starter when he was on the field, even if the peripheral numbers suggest he was more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace. If he can figure out how to combine the best parts of his 2023 and ’24 seasons, he will be well worth a $7MM annual salary over the next two seasons. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that. Williams has reached 30 starts just twice in his nine-year MLB tenure, and he came into the 2024 season with a career 4.48 ERA and 4.66 SIERA. He is also entering his mid-thirties. In theory, his excellent command should help him thrive as an older starter. Then again, he could be in real trouble if he loses any more velocity on his four-seam fastball. It was a valuable pitch in 2024, but at 88.9 mph, it’s already one of the slowest heaters in the league.

Williams will return to a Nationals rotation that also features de facto ace MacKenzie Gore, free agent acquisition (and project) Michael Soroka, and a handful of mid-to-back-end types who broke out for Washington last year: Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. Top prospect Cade Cavalli will also factor into the equation, although Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post notes that the team will be monitoring Cavalli’s innings in 2025 and could option him to Triple-A to begin the year. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign. It’s unclear how manager Dave Martinez will set up his rotation to begin the season, but barring an injury or a disastrous performance this spring, it feels safe to presume that Williams be one of the starting five (or six?) come Opening Day.

Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Athletic first reported the Nationals were re-signing Williams on a two-year, $14MM deal.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

Nationals Sign Patrick Weigel To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Patrick Weigel to a minor league deal, as noted by Talk Nats. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training.

Weigel, 30, was a seventh-round pick by the Braves back in 2015. The righty worked his way up through Atlanta’s minor league system to make his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season, but was shelled in his lone appearance to the tune of two runs on two hits, three walks, and a wild pitch during an outing that saw him record no strikeouts and just two outs overall. That rough big league debut proved to be his only work in the majors with Atlanta, as he was shipped to Milwaukee as part of the Orlando Arcia trade in 2021. Weigel was used as an up-and-down reliever with the Brewers, for whom he delivered three decent but unremarkable relief appearances. In four innings of work that year, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA with nine strikeouts and four walks.

Despite that serviceable work in his brief time in the majors during 2021, his time at Triple-A Nashville was nothing short of disastrous. In 43 1/3 innings of work at the level, Weigel posted a brutal 7.27 ERA while walking 17.6% of opponents faced. That complete lack of command led the Brewers to designate the right-hander for assignment on the day of the 2021 trade deadline, leading him to elect minor league free agency during the offseason. He eventually caught on with the Mariners on a minor league deal for the 2022 season and pitched to a decent 4.21 ERA in 62 innings of work, though his 13.9% walk rate still left much to be desired.

Since departing the Mariners during the 2022-23 offseason, Weigel has bounced between independent leagues. He pitched for the American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs in 2023, and his solid work there led him to split the 2024 campaign between the Reds’ minor league system and the Mexican League’s Saraperos de Saltillo. Weigel dominated the Double-A level with the Reds (0.90 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate) but was lit up at Triple-A to the tune of five runs in just two innings of work. Now, he’s poised to try his hand with a fifth MLB organization. The Nationals are surely hoping they’ll be able to help Weigel rein in his command, and if he can get his walk rate into a more manageable range going forward it’s easy to imagine him be a useful non-roster depth option for the club out of the bullpen this year.

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