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Nationals Rumors

Nationals’ Josiah Gray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | July 24, 2024 at 12:58pm CDT

July 24: Gray underwent a Tommy John procedure and internal brace, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. He’ll miss at least the bulk of next season.

July 19: Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery next week, tweets Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. Gray tells reporters that it hasn’t yet been determined whether he’ll undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a hybrid of both (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That determination won’t be made until the surgery is being performed, but he’ll be sidelined well into next season regardless.

Gray, 26, came to the Nats alongside catcher Keibert Ruiz in the blockbuster 2021 deadline trade sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He stepped into the Nats’ rotation that same summer and has been a fixture on the staff since, although he’s only been healthy enough to make two starts in 2024. Gray was rocked for 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings across those two outings before heading to the injured list with a flexor strain.

Just a few weeks ago, things looked to be trending up for Gray. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment on June 9 and, after a shaky first outing, allowed four runs in 15 innings across his next three starts. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A appearance on June 25 and allowed just one run on four hits and no walks with four punchouts. At the time, it seemed that with one more rehab outing, Gray would get the go-ahead to rejoin the Nationals’ rotation.

His next start, however, yielded disastrous results. He was torched for seven runs in just three innings and exited the game with an injury — this time feeling discomfort in his right elbow. Further testing was performed, and Gray unfortunately received the worst-case scenario for any pitcher when he undergoes testing on his elbow.

A former second-round pick, Gray was long touted as a top prospect before his big league debut — not necessarily because of an ace-caliber ceiling but because he was considered a very likely third or fourth starter. In 2023, he looked to have emerged as just that with the Nats, tossing 159 innings with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s 20.5% strikeout rate and particularly his 11.5% walk rate were worse than the league average, but he substantially cut back on his prior home run troubles last season. Even with sub-par strikeout and walk rates, Gray looked the part of an innings-eating back-end starter, and given that he was just entering his age-26 season, the possibility for another step forward remained.

Now, he’ll be sidelined well into his age-27 campaign — potentially missing the majority of next season, depending on the extent of the surgery he requires. A Tommy John or Tommy John/internal brace hybrid could come with a recovery timetable of up to 14 months. If his recovery is indeed on the lengthy end of the spectrum, it’s possible this injury will knock him out until Opening Day 2026.

Gray entered the 2024 season with 2.075 years of service. He’s been collecting big league service time on the injured list and will continue to do so for the remainder of the year. He’ll finish at 3.075 years and qualify for arbitration for the first time. He’s entrenched in the team’s plans and has three seasons of control remaining beyond the current year, so there’s no chance he’ll be considered a non-tender candidate, even if it’s possible he misses all of next year.

Subtracting Gray from the rotation outlook is a significant punch to the Nationals’ outlook over the next year-plus. With Patrick Corbin coming off the books and top prospect Cade Cavalli soon to return from his own Tommy John procedure, the Nats could look ahead to a 2025 rotation of Gray, Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore, breakout righty Jake Irvin and impressive rookie Mitchell Parker — to say nothing of any potential offseason additions to the pitching staff.

With Gray now on the shelf, that’ll only add further motivation for longtime baseball ops leader Mike Rizzo to add some rotation help in the winter (or perhaps to nab a near-MLB-ready arm at this month’s July 30 trade deadline). The Nationals aren’t quite done with their rebuilding effort — they traded Hunter Harvey last week and could well trade Kyle Finnegan, Jesse Winker and others before the deadline — but are in the final stages. James Wood, the sport’s No. 1 prospect per Baseball America, made his debut earlier this month. Gore, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have cemented themselves as core players this season. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Dylan Crews, should make his big league debut before long. Things are trending up, but the injury to Gray is a setback of some note that figures to factor into the organization’s offseason outlook.

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Newsstand Washington Nationals Josiah Gray

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Nationals Notes: Thomas, Finnegan, Cavalli

By Nick Deeds | July 20, 2024 at 10:39pm CDT

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters, including Bobby Blanco of MASN, yesterday for the first time since the club shipped right-hander Hunter Harvey to the Royals in exchange for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and the 39th selection in the 2024 draft. Rizzo was effusive in his praise of Harvey, who he described as an “organizational success story,” but noted that he felt that the trade was “important for us to do…for the future of the franchise.”

The topic of the Harvey deal, which occurred in spite of the right-hander being under team control for the 2025 season, led naturally to questions regarding the status of outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, both of whom are also under control for one season after 2024. When asked the availability of the pair, Rizzo confirmed that both are available, though he emphasized that the extra year of control means he isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either player. When discussing Thomas, Rizzo said that because the club has him under control beyond the 2024 campaign, “we’re going to do a deal that we’re comfortable with. And if we don’t, we won’t do a deal.” He went on to say that he viewed Finnegan “The same way, exactly” and that the club was “not going to get rid of [Finnegan] easy.”

While it’s not entirely clear what the Nationals’ current asking price is for either Thomas or Finnegan, it’s hardly a surprise that the club’s GM is indicating that he won’t be dealing either player unless his price is met. Thomas, 29 next month, has been a steady regular for the Nationals throughout their rebuild with a .256/.317/.438 slash line (106 wRC+) since first joining the club partway through the 2021 season. He enjoyed something of a breakout season last year, slugging 28 home runs while swiping 20 bases and hitting a solid .268/.315/.468 in 156 games for the Nats. Thomas hasn’t hit for quite as much power in 2024 but has been an even more prolific base stealer, swiping 24 bags in just 306 trips to the plate so far this year. In a market without many quality hitters who are obviously available, it’s easy to imagine Thomas getting interest from clubs looking for help in the outfield such as the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

As for Finnegan, the 32-year-old is in the midst of a career year in his fourth season as the Nationals’ closer. In 40 2/3 innings of work this year, the righty has already racked up 26 saves while pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA and striking out a solid 25.8% of batters faced. Home runs have been an issue for Finnegan in his career as he’s allowed 15.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard, including 16.7% this year. That’s left him with a somewhat pedestrian 4.05 FIP, but his lengthy track record as a quality high-leverage relief arm with Washington (where he’s posted a career 3.37 ERA in 267 1/3 innings of work) should nonetheless make him among the most attractive relief arms available for teams in need for help in the late innings.

In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.

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Notes Washington Nationals Cade Cavalli Kyle Finnegan Lane Thomas

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Nationals Sign First-Round Pick Seaver King

By Darragh McDonald | July 19, 2024 at 5:05pm CDT

The Nationals announced that they have signed Seaver King, who they selected with the 10th overall pick in this year’s draft. Jim Callis of MLB.com relays on X that the signing bonus is $5.15MM, a bit below the $5.95MM slot value for his pick.

King, 21, got into 60 games for Wake Forest this year, lining up at the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as center field. He hit 16 home runs in that time and slashed .308/.377/.577. He also stole 11 bases in 12 tries.

Based on his ability to contribute in multiple ways, he was one of the top ranked players coming into the draft. Each of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him 17th. ESPN put him slightly higher at 16th while FanGraphs was the most bullish by putting him 11th.

The outlets generally commend him for doing damage and putting up impressive exit velocities, though with some concern for his lack of discipline and propensity for chasing bad pitches, which leads to some weaker contact and few walks. Defensively, he’s considered a bit raw at his multiple positions but is expected to be carried by his athleticism in the short term and become more polished in time. FanGraphs sees a ceiling of an everyday shortstop but admits a multi-positional role is probably more likely.

The Nationals are at an interesting time in their rebuild, as they flirted with contention this year but have recently pivoted to selling, with Hunter Harvey flipped to the Royals. But they are starting to form a nucleus of controllable players at the big league level, with CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and others up at the big league level.

Still down in the minors are notable prospects such as Dylan Crews, Brady House and more. King will join Crews and House in the minors, with his future defensive home and his role with the big league club still to be determined.

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2024 Amateur Draft Washington Nationals Seaver King

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Nationals Reinstate Jose A. Ferrer

By Darragh McDonald | July 19, 2024 at 1:50pm CDT

The Nationals announced that left-hander Jose A. Ferrer has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Righty Amos Willingham was optioned to Triple-A to open an active roster spot. The Nats had two 40-man vacancies due to releasing infielder Nick Senzel and trading right Hunter Harvey to the Royals, so their count now climbs from 38 to 39.

Ferrer, 24, suffered a left lat strain during Spring Training and has spent the entire campaign on the IL until now. That has prevented him from building off last year’s major league debut. He tossed 34 innings for the Nats in 2023 with a 5.04 earned run average. His 17.6% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.2% walk rate was around average. He got ground balls at a strong clip of 57.8% but also allowed four home runs, a rate of 18.2% per fly ball.

Advanced metrics thought he was a bit unlucky to have his ERA that high. Perhaps due to a relatively high .333 batting average on balls in play, his FIP was 4.55. SIERA, which normalizes home run rates, was even more bullish at 4.16.

Ferrer now slots into the club’s bullpen, giving them a second lefty alongside Robert Garcia. There should be plenty of opportunities for Washington relievers in the final few months of the season. They already traded Harvey and could potentially also flip Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Derek Law or Jacob Barnes by season’s end, as no one in that group is controllable beyond 2025.

That could give Ferrer a bit of runway to make up for lost time. He still has a couple of options and came into 2024 with less than a year of service, so he could be a long-term piece for the Nats if he performs well enough to continue holding a roster spot. He’s always been a ground ball guy in the minors but also with more punchouts than he showed in the majors last year. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has a 27% strikeout rate on the farm.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Amos Willingham Jose Ferrer

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MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets

By Darragh McDonald | July 17, 2024 at 11:50pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 Trade Deadline (2:20)
  • The Royals acquire Hunter Harvey from the Nationals (5:45)
  • The Mets acquire Phil Maton from the Rays (14:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Cubs are such an interesting case right now. They’re not performing well, but they’re also not built to sell. They’ve got a lot of players slated to return from the IL in the next few weeks and they’ve got an easy strength of schedule after the deadline. They’ve got a strong farm system and some positional surpluses that they could deal from, but they’re up against the tax that they’ve self-imposed as a hard cap. They’re not too far from playoff contention but they’ve got a bunch of teams ahead of them. What should they do? (27:15)
  • With the trade deadline approaching fast and the Tigers’ recent play, could they be potential buyers if they continue this trend up to the deadline? (34:25)
  • If the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech, just how improved could they expect to be? (40:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
  • The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
  • Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals MLB Trade Rumors Podcast New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Hunter Harvey Phil Maton

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Royals Acquire Hunter Harvey From Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | July 13, 2024 at 11:14pm CDT

The Royals have bolstered their bullpen with the acquisition of right-hander Hunter Harvey, as the Nationals announced that Harvey will head to K.C. in exchange for third baseman Cayden Wallace and the Royals’ Competitive Balance Round A pick (39th overall) in the 2024 draft.  The Royals also announced the move, as well as the news that right-hander Nick Anderson has been designated for assignment to create roster space for Harvey.

Today’s 5-0 loss to the Red Sox dropped the Royals to a 52-44 record, and a game back of Boston for the third and final AL wild card slot.  Playing .542 baseball is already an impressive step forward for a team that lost 106 games in 2023, yet Kansas City clearly has eyes on bouncing back from some recent struggles.  The Royals started the season at a blistering 39-26 pace, but have since stumbled to a 13-18 mark in their last 31 games, and relief pitching has been a major reason behind this slide.

The K.C. bullpen ranks in the bottom third of baseball in most major categories, including 22nd in bullpen ERA (4.30).  James McArthur has converted 17 of 21 save chances but has been somewhat shaky, and the Royals’ relief corps is lacking in both velocity and strikeout ability.  Recent reports suggested that Kansas City was considering the bullpen as a top need heading into the trade deadline, even ahead of the Royals’ also-pressing need for outfield upgrades.

Harvey and his 97.8mph fastball provide some immediate high-leverage zip in the Royals’ pen, and Harvey also has above-average strikeout and walk rates over his 45 innings this season out of Washington’s bullpen.  While he has a 4.20 ERA, Harvey’s SIERA is 2.99, as a .325 BABIP has contributed to make Harvey’s bottom-line results an insufficient reflection of his quality pitching.

Selected 22nd overall by the Orioles in the 2013 draft, Harvey drew top-100 prospect attention before a variety of injuries threatened to halt his career before it ever got off the ground.  He had a 3.42 ERA over 23 2/3 innings and 26 appearances for Baltimore during the 2019-21 seasons, but the Giants claimed him off waivers in November 2021, and Harvey then moved to Washington on another waiver claim just prior to the start of the 2022 campaign.

This time with the Nationals allowed Harvey to establish himself as a solid MLB-caliber arm, even if he has flown under the radar during the team’s rebuild.  Harvey has a 3.17 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate in 145 innings for D.C., working mostly as a setup man but with 10 saves to his ledger in 2023.  Hard contact is a big red flag in Harvey’s arsenal, but he has done a passably good job of keeping this hard contact from translating into home runs.  Moving to spacious Kauffman Stadium could further help the 29-year-old Harvey in this regard.

Harvey is earning a $2.35MM salary this season in his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, so the Royals also control him through the end of the 2025 campaign.  This extra year of control made Harvey a particularly interesting player to watch heading into the July 30 deadline, and both Harvey and Nats closer Kyle Finnegan (also controlled through 2025) cracked the top 15 of MLBTR’s recent listing of the top 50 trade candidates.  Since teams generally have to pay a bit extra to complete deals further in advance of the deadline, that factor plus Harvey’s extra year of control and perhaps the Royals’ eagerness to quickly correct their bullpen struggles combined to give Washington a pretty nice return.

The rebuilding Nationals stayed within striking distance of the NL wild card race, but today’s trade leaves no doubt that the Nats will remain on their expected path as sellers heading into the deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Washington might not seek out some players that could help them be competitive as early as 2025, and Wallace could potentially fit that category, as he is currently in his second season of Double-A ball.

A second-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Wallace is hitting .282/.350/.427 over 140 plate appearances for Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season, but he has been slowed by both an oblique strain and an ongoing IL stint for a broken rib.  These injuries have slowed his development, but MLB Pipeline still ranks Wallace as the second-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, and Baseball America ranked him fifth in their preseason ranking of Royals minor leaguers.  Both scouting reports consider him a good defensive player with the ability to remain at third base due to a strong throwing arm, and Wallace has a good approach at the plate and a solid swing.  He has power potential moreso than obvious power at the moment, so Pipeline and BA view Wallace as a gap hitter with some upside as he develops.

Trading a “third baseman of the future” candidate like Wallace serves as an endorsement of the Royals’ faith in Maikel Garcia in at least the short term, even if Kansas City might now look for some help at the hot corner down the road — perhaps as soon as tomorrow’s draft.  As noted by MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman, the Nationals have now given themselves lot of third base depth for the future, with Wallace joining Brady House (ranked by Pipeline as the 44th-best prospect in all of baseball) and Yohandy Morales in the minor league ranks.  This could be a potential surplus position for the Nationals in the coming years, if they return to contention and start moving their own internal prospects for more win-now veterans.

The Competitive Balance Round selections are the only types of draft picks that can be traded, and as such are quietly some of the most valued trade chips in all of baseball.  Any team can trade for CBR picks, but since smaller-market and lower-revenue teams are the only clubs eligible for these bonus selections in the first place, trades involving the picks are relatively rare, given how adding talent through the draft is of such particular value for the game’s lesser spenders.  Still, today’s trade marks the third CBR pick of the 2024 draft to change hands — the Brewers acquired the 34th overall pick from the Orioles as part of the Corbin Burnes trade, while the White Sox landed the 68th overall pick (in CBR Round B) as part of the deal that sent Gregory Santos to the Mariners.

The Royals select sixth overall in tomorrow’s draft, and now won’t pick again until their second-round choice (41st overall).  The Nationals now have three selections within the first 44 picks, with their newly-acquired CBR selection sandwiched between their first- and second-round slots.

Anderson came to the Royals in a trade with the Braves last November, as Kansas City had interest in seeing if the former Rays bullpen ace could regain his form after three injury-marred seasons.  Over 34 2/3 innings for the Royals this season, Anderson had a 4.15 ERA and not much in the way of secondary metrics, as he posted a 10.1% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate.

Anderson is earning $1.575MM this season, and he is arb-controlled through 2025, which could add some attraction for any club interested in adding bullpen depth via waiver claim.  Anderson has now passed the five-year threshold for MLB service time due to being on the Royals’ active roster all season, and would thus retain all of his 2024 salary if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent.

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Kansas City Royals Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals Hunter Harvey Nick Anderson

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Nationals Place Nick Senzel On Release Waivers

By Anthony Franco | July 12, 2024 at 8:48am CDT

The Nationals announced this morning that they’ve placed Nick Senzel on unconditional release waivers. Any team that claims him would assume the remainder of his $2MM salary. It’s likelier he’ll go unclaimed and become a free agent.

Washington had five days to find a trade partner after designating the third baseman for assignment last Saturday. That didn’t come to fruition, making a release the likely outcome. Senzel entered the season with four years and 150 days of service time. He surpassed the five-year mark in April, thereby earning the right to decline any assignments to the minor leagues without forfeiting salary. Since Senzel would likely have elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Nats simply released him.

The Nationals took a flier on the former #2 overall pick last offseason. Senzel never developed into the offensive force that the Reds envisioned when they drafted him so highly. That’s in part because of injury, as the University of Tennessee product missed time because of knee and toe issues. Even when healthy, Senzel turned in middling offensive numbers. He combined for a .239/.302/.368 line in nearly 1400 plate appearances with Cincinnati.

The Reds opted not to tender him an arbitration contract. The Nationals, still at the tail end of their rebuild, guaranteed him $2MM in hopes that a change of scenery could unlock some of the upside he showed in college and in the minors. The Nats also committed to moving Senzel back to his natural third base position after the Reds had bounced him around the diamond in recent years.

Senzel continued to struggle in his new home. He opened the season on the injured list after breaking his thumb in Spring Training. Senzel returned in mid-April and blasted five home runs over his first couple weeks of the season. His production tailed off almost immediately thereafter. Since the start of May, he’s hitting .207/.309/.299 in 188 plate appearances. That wasn’t going to translate to any kind of trade interest.

Washington is giving rookie Trey Lipscomb an audition at third base after moving on from Senzel. The 24-year-old has struggled to a .228/.293/.257 slash line over his first 43 MLB contests. The Nats have dropped 10 games under .500 and are quickly falling from the Wild Card race, though, so they’ve taken the past couple weeks to get looks at younger players. Washington also released Eddie Rosario in conjunction with the promotion of top outfield prospect James Wood.

Once he clears release waivers, Senzel might need to take a minor league contract. If he secures a spot on the MLB roster with another team, that club would only owe him the prorated portion of the $740K minimum for time spent in the majors. The Nationals remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Nick Senzel

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MLBTR Podcast: Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell

By Darragh McDonald | July 10, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Brewers acquiring Aaron Civale from the Rays (2:05)
  • The Marlins likely trading Tanner Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (9:45)
  • The Angels reportedly only want to trade rentals (17:30)
  • The Nationals reportedly preparing to be deadline sellers (22:40)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who gets traded from the Blue Jays at the deadline? (27:55)
  • What will the Mariners do to take advantage on their stellar rotation and make a run for their first World Series appearance? Also, should the Mariners trade J.P. Crawford for a proven hitter? (33:30)
  • Do you think there’s a chance the Braves make Max Fried a legitimate offer to keep him this winter? (39:00)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
  • Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes – listen here
  • José Abreu’s Release, Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto Hit The IL And Even More Injuries – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Aaron Civale

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Nationals Preparing To Be Deadline Sellers

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2024 at 10:42am CDT

The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.

The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.

Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.

Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.

Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.

Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.

That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.

If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.

Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.

Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.

That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.

Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.

Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.

Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.

One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.

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Newsstand Washington Nationals Derek Law Dylan Floro Hunter Harvey Jesse Winker Joey Gallo Kyle Finnegan Lane Thomas Patrick Corbin Trevor Williams

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Nationals Designate Nick Senzel For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | July 6, 2024 at 12:51pm CDT

The Nationals announced that third baseman Nick Senzel has been designated for assignment.  Infielder Trey Lipscomb was called back up from Triple-A Rochester in the corresponding move.

It is the second time this week that the Nats have DFA’ed one of their veteran pickups from the offseason, as Eddie Rosario was designated and subsequently released (and then quickly signed by the Braves, his former team).  Rosario’s minor league deal carried a $2MM base salary once he was selected to the Nationals’ active roster, and likewise, Senzel signed a guaranteed one-year, $2MM contract with Washington over the winter.  If Senzel isn’t claimed or traded during his DFA period and then released, the Nationals will be responsible for the roughly $950K still owed to Senzel, apart from the prorated minimum MLB salary that would be covered by a new team if Senzel signs elsewhere.

The financial element of today’s move is probably secondary to the bigger-aspect of the Nationals pulling the cord early on a veteran player rather than looking to move Senzel in a trade closer to the deadline.  As with Rosario, it seems like Washington just opted to move on entirely since Senzel wasn’t producing enough to generate much trade interest.  Senzel has hit .209/.303/.359 with seven home runs over 235 plate appearances, translating to a below-average 90 wRC+.  Apart from an excellent 11.5% walk rate, Senzel wasn’t bringing much to the table either offensively or defensively as the Nats’ regular third baseman, and he had only 0.1 fWAR over 64 games.

As has often been the case for Senzel, health was a factor.  He suffered a fractured thumb right at the end of Spring Training that required a season-opening stint on the 10-day injured list, and though the fracture was slight enough that he missed less than three weeks of action, it is easy to imagine how any kind of lingering thumb discomfort might’ve impacted Senzel’s performance at the plate.

This is essentially the story of Senzel’s career, as a wide range of injuries has kept him off the field for long stretches of time, to say nothing of how his ceiling as a talent has been lowered.  Selected second overall by the Reds in the 2016 draft, Senzel battled injuries and a number of position changes over his first five MLB seasons, and he hit only .239/.302/.369 in 1366 PA for Cincinnati from 2019-23.  The Reds then non-tendered him last fall, sending Senzel to free agency and for what he hoped was a welcome change of scenery in Washington.

While the Nationals’ 41-47 record still puts them on the outskirts of the NL wild card race, 2024 was always seen as another step in the team’s rebuilding process, as the Nats were looking for more development from their youngsters already on the active roster and those just on their way into the Show for the first time.  Star outfield prospect James Wood made his MLB debut this past week in the wake of Rosario’s departure, Victor Robles’ release last month created more time for Jacob Young as the regular center fielder, Joey Meneses was optioned to Triple-A to make more room for Juan Yepez at first base.  Lipscomb should be the favorite for the third base job with Senzel out, though top prospect Brady House is the team’s longer-term third baseman of the future.

Impending free agents Jesse Winker and Dylan Floro remain as two of the Nationals’ likeliest veteran trade chips heading into the July 30th deadline.  Such players as outfielder Lane Thomas and relievers Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan have also reportedly drawn interest, and while that trio is all arbitration-controlled through the 2025 campaign, one would image the Nats would be open to listening to offers as they look towards reinforcing their core.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Nick Senzel Trey Lipscomb

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