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Jays Notes: Bichette, Garcia, Votto

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Bo Bichette exited tonight’s game after six innings. The Blue Jays shortstop came up limping out of the batter’s box after hitting a line drive to right field. Toronto announced that Bichette suffered a right calf injury. Manager John Schneider said postgame that he was headed for an MRI (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).

A strain in the same calf sent Bichette to the injured list last month. The 26-year-old infielder returned after a minimal stint. Tonight’s evident setback could send him back to the shelf. Even a minimal IL stay would keep him out through the July 30 trade deadline.

With the Jays plummeting out of playoff contention, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been the subject of some trade speculation. GM Ross Atkins shot down the chance of moving either player last month, but the Jays have fallen more definitely from the postseason fringe since then. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported last week that Toronto was still more focused on moving impending free agents. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next season and will hit free agency after the ’25 campaign.

This summer would be an inopportune time to deal Bichette even if the Jays listen to offers on more controllable players. This has been by far the most challenging season of his career. He’s hitting .222/.275/.320 over 331 trips to the plate. Bichette has four longballs after reaching the 20-homer threshold in three consecutive seasons. He might now be headed for his second IL stint in as many months.

In more positive injury news, the Jays welcomed Yimi García back from the 15-day injured list before today’s game. The veteran reliever missed a month with ulnar neuritis in his elbow. García is one of six impending free agents on the Toronto roster and has a strong chance to move before the deadline. The right-hander owns a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings. García is running a personal-best 34.6% strikeout rate while generating swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings. He’s playing on a $6MM salary and should be a target for contenders seeking a setup option.

Justin Turner is another of the rentals whom the Jays could look to move this month. Dealing Turner would open the designated hitter spot. That’d theoretically open an opportunity for Joey Votto. Unfortunately, the former MVP’s homecoming with the Jays has been sidetracked by injuries. Votto hurt his right ankle during Spring Training and has spent the season on the Triple-A injured list. He was set to begin his stint for Triple-A Buffalo tonight before tweaking his ankle during pre-game work (relayed on X by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). He’ll be reevaluated tomorrow.

Looking At The Blue Jays And The Competitive Balance Tax

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This isn’t the Blue Jays’ year. Though they played at roughly a 90-win pace over the 2020-23 seasons, things have fallen apart here in 2024. They are 44-52, putting them 9.5 games out of a playoff spot and with several teams blocking their path. Unless they crack off an 11-game winning streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be looking to do some selling in the coming weeks.

Crazier things have happened but the odds are against them. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 2% chance of a miracle postseason berth while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are only slightly more optimistic at 3.9%.

Recent reporting has suggested the Jays are willing to deal rental players but may stop there. Some have floated players like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as potential trade candidates, with each controllable through the 2025 season, but general manager Ross Atkins seemed to shoot down that possibility. Last month, he said that trading those guys “just doesn’t make any sense for us.”

In general, it seems the club is hoping to contend again in 2025. That leaves them with six rental players they could trade between now and the July 30 deadline, as each of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at season’s end. Naturally, each player will have different trade value based on his skill level but also his contract.

One question that the front office will need to answer is whether they will prioritize shedding salaries and getting under the competitive balance tax or focus more on prospect returns, eating some money in order to tip the scales that way. The Mets demonstrated the latter path last year, as they swallowed significant portions of the money owed to both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in order to bring back larger prospect hauls.

Both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts are pretty close in estimating Toronto’s current CBT number. RR has them just over $247MM with Cot’s a tad higher at $250MM. Those are just estimates but they’re likely pretty close, so the Jays would have to subtract $10-15MM in order to limbo under the lowest tax threshold of $237MM.

They won’t be able to shed any player’s full salary from their CBT number as the season is already more than half over, but they could shed portions. For example, if a player has a CBT hit of $20MM and is traded at the midway point of the season, $10MM of that would stay on the trading club’s books and the other half would transfer to the acquiring club. That’s assuming no cash considerations were involved in the deal.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player’s CBT hit is based on the average annual value of his contract, not the salary. The baseball season is 187 days long and there are 73 left to go, roughly 39%. By the deadline, that will be down to 61 days or 32.6%. Let’s take a rough outline of where those six rental players stand:

  • Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the year, $5.07MM remaining today, $4.24MM at deadline
  • Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
  • Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
  • Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
  • Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
  • Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K

As of today, those six players combine for a CBT hit of roughly $19.06MM, with that number set to drop to $15.93MM by the deadline. Though it would be tight, it’s certainly possible they could duck under the tax this year.

Doing so would come with certain benefits, though the tax savings would be minimal. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and are currently on pace to be a second-time payor. That only comes with a 30% tax rate, meaning they’re currently slated to pay in the range of $3-4MM in taxes.

That’s a drop in the bucket for a major league team but there would be other arguments for ducking under. If the Jays did pay the tax this year and again in 2025, they would be a third-time payor next year, which would bump their tax rate to 50%. Whereas ducking under the line this year would reset their status and allow them to go into 2025 as a “first-time” payor and have a base rate of just 20%. That feels significant but still leads to fairly modest tax savings. For example, going $30MM over next year’s base threshold would lead to either a $6MM or $15MM tax bill, depending on whether they are paying a 20% or 50% rate.

Perhaps more importantly, if they signed a player in the offseason that had rejected a qualifying offer, they would face a lesser penalty by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying club surrenders $1MM in international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next draft when signing a QO player. Avoiding the tax changes that to just $500K in bonus money and just the second-highest pick.

They would also increase what they receive if a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. Tax payors receive a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, whereas it’s the start of the third if they avoid the tax. The Jays have a couple of potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi but the QO consideration would be moot if they get traded.

But as mentioned, the Jays could just forget about the tax and focus on getting the best prospects they can. The Cubs are reportedly interested in Jansen but they would probably rather give up a better return while having the Jays keep their money on their books. The Cubs seemingly want to avoid the tax themselves and Roster Resource currently has them just under $234MM. They have a well-regarded farm system and might lean towards subtracting from that, as opposed to taking on money at the deadline. It may be similar with other teams, such as the Padres. Roster Resource has them at $225MM and they seem to want to stay under the tax as well. They need pitching and may be interested in someone like Kikuchi, but they may not want to take on his money/CBT hit.

Other teams will be in the opposite position. A team such as the Tigers, as an example, might be looking for more offense. If they were to inquire about Turner, they would probably prefer to take on the money and not give up prospect talent. They are nowhere near the tax line and their real payroll is well below their past spending levels. Since they are seven games out of the playoffs, they might be willing to take on a bit of cash in order to bolster their club for a long-shot postseason push, as opposed to surrendering young players and hurting themselves in future seasons.

What the Jays are able to do will ultimately depend on what kind of offers are coming their way, as they don’t operate in a vacuum. They already know that no club is willing to take on all of Kiermaier’s contract, as they made him freely available on waivers recently and didn’t get any takers. Perhaps someone would be interested in him as a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder if the Jays ate some of his deal, but getting all of the remainder of his contract off the books doesn’t appear to be an option.

Depending on the circumstances of their trading partners, they may have to strike a balance, with some deals focused on cost savings and others on maximizing the return in terms of talent. If that leaves them still a hair over the tax line, they could consider moving non-rental players, with Chad Green arguably the best option there. He is under contract through 2025 but has a $10.5MM CBT hit, same as Kiermaier, giving the Jays a chance to scrub another few million from their CBT number. Doing so would hurt their 2025 bullpen but they might feel they could easily replace Green’s production via an offseason signing. With bullpen help generally in demand at the deadline, Green should garner interest.

Guys like George Springer, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or more. The Jays could try to find takers for those but Springer is 34 years old and having a rough season, which would tamp down interest. Dealing either Bassitt or Gausman would hurt next year’s rotation, which is perhaps the club’s best argument for trying to compete again in 2025, as they could go into the offseason with a front four of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez on paper.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be another option as he is under contract through 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT hit. He is having the best season of his career but has been on the injured list since the start of this month with a left knee sprain. He can still be traded while on the IL but his health status will impact his trade value.

Ultimately, there are many moving parts here, part of the reason why the Jays will be an interesting club to watch in the weeks to come. Most of the sellers at this year’s deadline will be focused on the long term, as clubs like the White Sox and Marlins are in really rough shape in the present. That will make their deadline priorities rather straightforward, as they will be simply looking to acquire as much future talent as possible.

But the Blue Jays will likely be balancing several different concerns. They will be looking to give up some talent, but not in a way that significantly harms their chances of competing again next year. They could focus on acquiring as much talent as they can right now or they could limbo under the tax line, giving them more freedom to acquire talent in the offseason. One way or another, Atkins and his crew will be looking to turn a lost season into something that can help them down the line, though there are many different ways they could try to accomplish that.

Twins Looking Into Rental Starters

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The 54-42 Twins enter the second half of the 2024 season sitting a dozen games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. After falling behind both the Guardians and Royals early in the year, they’ve leapfrogged Kansas City (54-45) and sit a manageable four and a half games back of Cleveland (58-37) for the division lead. They’re lining up to act as clear buyers at the deadline, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that Minnesota would like to add another arm in the rotation — likely a rental.

Adding a starter who’s only controlled through season’s end is sensible for the Twins but a departure from the types of rotation arms they’ve targeted at recent trade efforts. It’s worth remembering that Twins ownership slashed payroll meaningfully this past offseason, cutting down from 2023’s mark of around $155MM to this season’s Opening Day mark of about $127.5MM. That came amid uncertainty regarding the future of the Twins’ television contract with Bally Sports, and given that the eventual resolution was a one-year deal to remain with Bally, it’s not surprising that the club might prefer to avoid committing substantial salary to the 2025 books in the form of acquiring a more controllable arm. (Although to be clear, there’s no indication ownership would be staunchly opposed to adding to the ’25 books.)

A short-term stopgap in the rotation is sensible for reasons beyond the 2025 payroll, of course. The Twins could currently use some extra innings in the back half of the rotation, where Chris Paddack has had an inconsistent season as he pushes his workload back to levels he hasn’t seen since 2019 in what is his first season back from a second career Tommy John surgery. Rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has enjoyed a breakout year but is 23 innings shy of last season’s total of 118 1/3 innings. Bringing in a veteran arm would offer some stability behind the staff-leading trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Adding to the appeal of a rental, the Twins’ entire slate of 2024 rotation options is controlled/signed beyond the current season. Lopez is signed through 2027. Ryan and Ober are controllable via arbitration through that same year. Paddack is signed through 2025 and presumably won’t have as many workload concerns next year. Woods Richardson can’t reach free agency until the 2030-31 offseason.

The organization’s top two pitching prospects, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, are both in the upper minors and could be in the mix for starts next year as well. (Festa has already made his MLB debut in 2024, though he’s been hit hard in a pair of spot starts.) That doesn’t even include hometown righty Louie Varland, who opened the season as the Twins’ fifth starter but has fallen behind Woods Richardson and Festa on the depth chart. He’s still starting in Triple-A for now, but there’s been plenty of speculation about an eventual move to the bullpen for the former top prospect.

Hayes lists Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi as one name the Twins “could” target, though it’s not clear just yet whether the two parties have had any meaningful discussions about the southpaw. Kikuchi is in the final season of a three-year, $36MM contract and is widely expected to be traded, with the Jays buried by 14 games in the AL East and only sitting marginally better in the Wild Card hunt (nine and a half games out).

The 33-year-old Kikuchi has logged 106 innings of 4.42 ERA ball with a sharp 26% strikeout rate and excellent 5.8% walk rate that belie his pedestrian earned run average. After a tough first season in Toronto, he’s proven to be a solid pickup in years two and three of the deal, thanks in large part to his revamped curveball. That said, he’s hit a rough patch of late, stumbling to a 6.00 ERA in his past nine starts (45 innings). His strikeout and walk rates have remained excellent, but a longstanding issue with home runs has once again reared its head; Kikuchi has been tagged for 11 round-trippers in that time (2.2 HR/9).

Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the most highly regarded rental arm likely to be on the market, though he’d likely command a prospect of note and the Twins might balk at sending a touted farmhand to a division rival. Washington’s Trevor Williams would be among the more clearly available rental arms on the market were it not a for a flexor strain that’s sidelined him since late May. There are a number of potential rental arms who could hit the market in the days ahead, depending on how their respective teams play. The Reds (Frankie Montas), Rangers (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney), Pirates (Marco Gonzales, old friend Martin Perez) and Giants (Alex Cobb) are all within five games of a playoff spot but could make some sell-side moves if they fall into a losing streak coming out of the break.

AL Notes: Soroka, Harvey, McCullers, Pederson

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Michael Soroka only three pitches in today’s outing before leaving with what the White Sox announced as right shoulder soreness.  More will be known once Soroka undergoes testing, though shoulder inflammation brought an early end to both his 2022 and 2023 seasons, and he had other shoulder issues in his first two Major League seasons in 2018-19.  Beyond these shoulder problems, Soroka missed almost the entirety of the 2020-22 seasons due to a pair of torn Achilles tendons, but he returned to the Show to pitch 32 1/3 innings of 6.40 ERA ball with the Braves last year.

Atlanta then shipped Soroka and four other players to Chicago in the Aaron Bummer trade last November, and Soroka’s first season with the Sox has been a struggle, as he has a 5.25 ERA over 72 innings and he lost his rotation job in May.  Soroka’s 3.49 ERA as a reliever is a big step up from his 6.39 ERA as a starter, though this latest shoulder injury could bring another unwelcome wrinkle to his career.  It could also impact Chicago’s trade deadline plans, as an impending free agent like Soroka is an obvious trade candidate, and a healthy multi-inning reliever would appeal to several teams.

More from around the American League as we head into the All-Star break…

  • The Royals started their deadline moves with a bang on Saturday, acquiring Hunter Harvey from the Nationals for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and Kansas City’s Competitive Balance Round A pick in this year’s draft.  (Washington used the 39th overall pick on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita.)  “What we came to realize is if you’re going to acquire a quality relief pitcher with years of control, it’s not going to be a comfortable trade to make.  You’re going to have to give up something to get something,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  K.C. was known to be looking for bullpen help, and Harvey brings “great depth” to the relief corps, though Picollo said the team was “happy with” James McArthur’s work as closer.  “The depth was the focus for us and having more options at the back end of the game,” Picollo said.
  • Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Lance McCullers Jr. during a pregame radio appearance today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Athletic).  McCullers’ rehab from flexor surgery was halted earlier this week due to some soreness in his right arm, and Brown said “we just have to let time heal and we can’t push him.”  A return by September to work as a reliever is a possibility, Brown said, which is itself notable since McCullers has started 127 of his 130 career big league games.  A variety of injuries have cost McCullers the entirety of both the 2019 and 2023 seasons, and limited him to 265 innings over the 2020-22 campaigns.  The exact nature of McCullers’ latest issue isn’t known, but Brown somewhat ominously said that the righty had gotten “his second opinion” about the setback.
  • The Blue Jays were known to be pushing to sign Joc Pederson last winter, before Pederson landed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal worth $12.5MM in guaranteed money.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently spoke with Pederson about his offseason talks with Toronto, and Pederson said he had a FaceTime conversation with GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider that seemed to go well, though negotiations didn’t progress much further.  “They just I guess didn’t want me as bad as some other teams and weren’t able to really put together an offer when it was time for me to make a decision….From the conversations we had on the phone and how interested they were in adding a left-handed bat, their actions didn’t match their words, I guess you could say,” Pederson said.  “They said everything went really well and then didn’t want to offer what other teams did.”  The veteran slugger didn’t have any displeasure with how things worked out, and even left the door open to potentially play for the Jays in the future.  Pederson is having an excellent season as a righty-mashing DH in Arizona, hitting .273/.374/.498 with 13 homers over 277 plate appearances with the D’Backs.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Danny Jansen

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The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.

It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.

Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.

Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.

Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.

Even so, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.

It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.

Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.

Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.

Kevin Kiermaier Clears Waivers

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Kevin Kiermaier went unclaimed on waivers, the center fielder tells Hazel Mae and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (X link). GM Ross Atkins informed Kiermaier of the news today.

The Jays placed the defensive stalwart on waivers earlier in the week. The development was reported yesterday, but it’s likely Toronto made the move on Wednesday. (The waiver resolution process takes 48 hours.) The Jays were hoping that another team would place a claim and assume the approximate $4.5MM remaining on his $10.5MM salary. All 29 other teams passed on that opportunity.

As a result, the waiver saga will likely amount to nothing. The Jays could technically try to assign Kiermaier to the minor leagues now that he went unclaimed, but there’s no real reason to do so. Kiermaier has way more than the five years of service time necessary to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his entire salary. If the Jays tried to send him to Triple-A, the four-time Gold Glove winner would surely elect free agency instead. Toronto would still owe him his salary, so all that’d achieve is opening a roster spot.

Instead, the Blue Jays are likely to simply keep Kiermaier in the majors. A team does not need to send a player down after passing that player through waivers. (As an example, the Angels retained Tyler Anderson and Randal Grichuk last season after unsuccessfully trying to offload their salaries.) Kiermaier is likely to continue serving as Toronto’s primary center fielder.

The 34-year-old will try to right the ship amidst the worst offensive season of his career. Kiermaier is hitting .191/.238/.295 with a huge 32.2% strikeout rate through 189 plate appearances. Among hitters with 150+ trips, he has the sixth-lowest OBP and is 19th from the bottom in slugging. Even with his customarily excellent glovework, Kiermaier’s overall production is hovering around replacement level.

Between the lack of offense and the fairly significant salary, no team was willing to plug Kiermaier into center field. The Jays could still try to trade him between now and the July 30 deadline, though they’d clearly need to pay down a portion of his salary to facilitate a deal. For the time being, he’ll try to help Toronto salvage their season. The Jays head into tonight’s series opener in Arizona with a 43-50 record that has them 8.5 games back of the Red Sox for the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Nate Pearson Interested In Future Starting Role

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Right-hander Nate Pearson has been working out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in recent years but he tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that he would like another opportunity to prove himself in a starting role.

“I’ve definitely considered it, I’ve always wanted to be a starter,” the righty said. “Obviously the past couple of years before this haven’t really gone my way in terms of health, the guys we’ve signed, the roster spots and everything. So right now I’m coming out of the ’pen, trying to help our team win, whether it’s one inning, two innings. Looking into next year, if that’s an option, then I definitely want to explore it. That’s something I’ll have to sit down and talk with them about, see what the need is. But I’m definitely open to it, definitely would love to get another shot at it.”

Now 27, Pearson once seemed ticketed to be a mainstay of the Toronto rotation. He was the club’s first-round pick in 2017, getting selected 28th overall, and then became one of the top prospects in the league. As he impressed with his work in the minors, Baseball America had him on their top 100 list for five straight years starting in 2018, with Pearson getting as high as seventh overall in 2020.

But as Pearson himself referenced in the quote above, his health got in the way. He got up to the majors in the shortened 2020 season but missed time due to a flexor strain and only made five appearances, plus one more in the playoffs. In 2021, he battled a right groin strain on and off throughout the year and struggled when on the mound. He spent most of his time either on the IL or on optional assignment. He only tossed 15 big leagues innings and had a 16.9% walk rate in that time, then underwent hernia surgery in November of that year. In 2022, mononucleosis and a lat strain limited him to 15 1/3 minor league innings and none in the majors.

Since then, he’s been able to avoid the health woes while staying in a relief role. Last year, he tossed 42 2/3 innings in the bigs and another 20 2/3 at Triple-A. The major league work wasn’t especially impressive, as he had a 4.85 earned run average in that time, but a healthy season was a victory in itself after all that missed time.

He’s been healthy again in 2024 with his ERA not changing much, though his underlying numbers have shown significant improvement. In 36 1/3 innings on the season, he has a 4.71 ERA, only slightly better than last year’s. But his strikeout rate has jumped to 29% from last year’s 23.6% rate, while his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% to 8.6%. That hasn’t led to much improvement in run prevention, but luck could be a factor there. His home run to flyball rate has jumped from 11.7% to 15% and his batting average on balls in play from .261 to .344. ERA estimators like his 4.05 FIP and his 3.09 SIERA suggest he may be having a better season than a quick glance at the ERA would indicate.

Now that he’s stayed healthy for close to two years and is having some decent results, perhaps a move back to a starting role is on the table. It’s a transition that has some precedent this year, with Davidi and Pearson bringing up guys like Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, Reynaldo López of Atlanta and former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks with the Giants.

“It’s definitely encouraging to see Hicks being a reliever for years over in St. Louis and then transitioning, making the jump and being pretty successful so far this year,” said Pearson. “And then Crochet, watching him throw earlier this year, he wasn’t even a (full-time) starter in college, now he’s in the rotation, throwing pretty well. So definitely, I feel, (it) helps me out for other people to see that is possible to make that transition. I guess only time will tell. Finish out this year, hopefully put up some good numbers and then look forward to next year.”

The bullpen-to-rotation path has other success stories, such as Seth Lugo, Jeffrey Springs and more, but it doesn’t always work. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at this year’s crop in May and again in July, with Crochet and López two of the best examples but with A.J. Puk on the other end of the spectrum. Puk was roughed up in four starts at the beginning of the year before landing on the injured list and the Marlins decided to move him back to the bullpen after the IL stint.

Time will tell whether Pearson can pull it off or not, but it’s understandable that he wants to try. A lot of pitchers are moved from starting roles to the bullpen not by choice but simply due to circumstances, either being squeezed out by other pitchers or their health situations, but they may still have a desire to go back. On top of the straightforward desire to succeed in a rotation role, there’s also a financial motivation as starters are generally paid more than relievers.

On top of Pearson’s aforementioned health issues, the Jays have generally had a solid rotation in recent years consisting of guys like José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Yariel Rodríguez, Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling and Hyun Jin Ryu.

The current rotation is composed of the first five names on that list, but change is likely coming. Kikuchi is an impending free agent and likely to be traded prior to the July 30 with the Jays sliding to the back of the American League Wild Card race and reportedly making rental players available. Bassitt and Gausman have been speculated as trade candidates as well, though Bassitt has another year on his contract and Gausman has two, so they’re less likely than Kikuchi to be moved.

Deadline trades could bring in other pitchers that change the equation but it’s possible there’s a rotation opening that Pearson could seize. As mentioned by Davidi, the club’s best pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko are currently dealing with injuries and uncertain futures. Manoah had Tommy John surgery in June and will be out until late 2025 at the earliest. That could increase the club’s willingness to giving Pearson a shot but it sounds like they’re already open to it. Davidi reports that the Jays have “bounced around” the idea of stretching out Pearson this year as those injuries have thinned out their depth.

“We’ve always considered Nate to be a potential starter in the major leagues, I don’t think that will change,” pitching coach Pete Walker says. “Will he get the opportunity again? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Right now, he’s still finding his niche and learning how to pitch out of the bullpen, which a lot of guys do. You learn a lot about yourself, how to compete in tough situations, how to make adjustments, realizing where your pitches have to be and that location is really important, even if you throw hard. He’s learning a lot right now and I could see him being a starting pitcher again, for sure.” Walker also added that the “door is always open.”

It’s not too surprising that the Jays would be open to Pearson making the move. The bullpen has also been hit by injuries this year and would lose one more member if Pearson becomes a starter, but decent relievers are generally easier to find than reliable starters, so it’s a tradeoff most clubs would be happy with. That’s especially true given Pearson’s financial situation.

He came into this year with his service time count at three years and five days. He was briefly optioned in April, getting recalled four days later when Chad Green landed on the injured list. A baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days on the active roster or IL to get a full service year, meaning Pearson is on pace to get a full year and finish this season at 4.005 in spite of that brief option period.

He’s making just $800K this year, barely over the $740K league minimum, thanks to those injuries limiting his on-field contributions in recent seasons. He’s slated for two more arbitration raises before a trip to free agency in advance of his age-30 season, unless he’s optioned to the minors again for a notable period of time.

His role, health and level of success will impact how much he earns in arbitration and free agency. If he’s able to follow the Crochet path, the best-case scenario could see him in a rotation role for the next two years, increasing his earning power and his value to the Jays. If the club is able to return to contention in future seasons, he could be a key part of that. If not, he could become a sought-after trade chip like Crochet is now. That’s a lot of ifs, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor as the Jays play out this season and figure out their plans for 2025 and beyond.

Blue Jays Place Kevin Kiermaier On Waivers

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6:37pm: Kiermaier confirmed the report, telling Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet after the game that manager John Schneider informed him of the waiver placement (X link). “It’s the chance for a contending team to claim me if they want, from what I was just told. I totally get it with where we’re at as a team,” the Gold Glove center fielder said.

4:20pm: The Blue Jays have placed outfielder Kevin Kiermaier on waivers, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The goal is seemingly to have another team claim him and take on the remainder of his salary. Kiermaier is still on the 40-man roster and can continue playing for the Jays while on waivers. In fact, he was playing in today’s game against the Giants as this report came out. If he clears waivers, the Jays can outright him or release him but keeping him on the roster would also be an option.

Last year, a new trend started to emerge of players being placed on waivers without being removed from the roster of their home club. This used to be a common practice back when there were two deadlines. Under the previous system, there was one deadline usually around the end of July and another around the end of August. In between those two deadlines, a player could still be traded but had to clear waivers first. This led to teams around the league putting huge numbers of players on waivers, most of whom had contracts that outpaced their on-field contributions, which usually led to them going unclaimed and then potentially being traded.

In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, getting rid of the August waiver trade system. This meant that players being placed on waivers while holding onto a roster spot essentially went away for a few years.

The practice came roaring back last year, thanks to the Angels. That club made an aggressive push at last year’s deadline, trying to win while they still had Shohei Ohtani for a few months. But they hit a big losing streak in August and fell way back in the standings, then pivoted to cost-saving mode. At the end of August, they put Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone on waivers, hoping for another club to claim those guys and take on their salaries. Since the trade deadline had passed, this was their only avenue to cutting salary and lowering their competitive balance tax number.

This wasn’t the end of the waiver madness. The Yankees also put Harrison Bader out there, while Mike Clevinger of the White Sox, Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and José Cisnero of the Tigers were also out there. In each case, the club had fallen out of contention and was simply looking for cost savings by another team taking the player off their hands. It’s also possible that other players were on waivers and it wasn’t publicly known because they didn’t get claimed.

In the end, some players were claimed and other weren’t, though the Angels successfully managed to dip under the line and avoid the competitive balance tax. That was a significant development as it improved the compensation draft pick they received after Ohtani rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Dodgers.

All of that is to say that is the probably the first of several reports that could emerge in the coming months about a player being placed on waivers while still on the team. Sherman uses the word “revocable” in his report, though that’s not entirely accurate. Revocable trade waivers no longer exist, but what Sherman likely means is that Kiermaier isn’t necessarily gone from the Blue Jays. Because they haven’t removed him from the 40-man roster by designating him for assignment, he can simply be retained if no one claims him. As an example, Grichuk went unclaimed last year, stayed with the Angels and was put back on waivers again in September. He cleared that time as well and was still playing for the club at the end of the season. But if someone does claim Kiermaier, he’ll be gone, as was the case with Giolito, Moore and several others who were claimed last year.

It seems fairly unlikely that Kiermaier will end up claimed. He’s playing this season on a one-year deal with a $10.5MM salary, with about $4.5MM of that still to be paid out. He still has wheels and is a strong defender but is hitting just .183/.232/.290. A contending team might be interested in him as a fourth outfielder who can pinch run and serve as a defensive replacement, but there’s little incentive for them to take on that salary right now. There’s still over two weeks until the July 30 trade deadline and interested clubs will have until then to work out a deal wherein the Jays eat some of the money, unless some club is willing to simply absbord the whole thing right now.

Whether Kiermaier is ultimately claimed or not, it does send a signal to where the Jays are at right now, as Sherman points out. The Jays are 42-50 as of this writing and 8.5 games back of a playoff spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them just a 2% chance if making it into the postseason. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish but only slightly, giving the Jays a 6.2% shot.

Barring an incredible winning streak in the next two weeks, the Jays will likely enter the deadline period at sellers and recent reporting has pointed to them making rental players available. One of those is Kiermaier, but the list also includes Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yimi García, Trevor Richards and Yusei Kikuchi. Whether they look for cost savings or prospect capital in those trades remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s struggles this year won’t allow him to bring back any huge prospect package regardless, so the Jays have opted to see if they can simply get maximum cost savings with this move.

The Jays currently have a CBT number of $247MM, per both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with only a tiny difference between the calculations of those two sites. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, so the Jays could avoid paying the tax by shedding more than $10MM from their CBT calculation, so a claim of Kiermaier could get them about halfway there.

If they did manage to duck under the line, the cost savings would be minimal. The Jays are a on pace to be a second-time payor and are therefore subject to a base tax rate of just 30% on spending over the line, meaning they’d currently be lined up for a tax bill of roughly $3MM. But the CBT features growing tax rates for repeat payors, so even teams that pay it regularly like to “reset” their status by ducking under from time to time. If the Jays did that this year, they would be able to theoretically pay the CBT in 2025 as a “first-time” payor as opposed to a “third-time” payor. Paying the CBT also leads to a larger penalty for signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer and reduces the compensation a team receives for a QO player signing elsewhere.

MLBTR Podcast: Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who gets traded from the Blue Jays at the deadline? (27:55)
  • What will the Mariners do to take advantage on their stellar rotation and make a run for their first World Series appearance? Also, should the Mariners trade J.P. Crawford for a proven hitter? (33:30)
  • Do you think there’s a chance the Braves make Max Fried a legitimate offer to keep him this winter? (39:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

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