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Free Agent Notes: Orioles, Gallardo, Marlins, Pearce

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The Orioles appear poised to once again do quite a bit of their offseason shopping after the New Year, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. According to Olney, the Orioles remain engaged on a number of free agents, which isn’t a surprise given the holes permeating the roster. While the O’s have addressed catcher (perhaps unexpectedly in the form of Matt Wieters accepting the qualifying offer), one corner outfield spot (Hyun-soo Kim) and first base/DH (Mark Trumbo), the team still has needs in the rotation and in right field, to say nothing of a potential reunion with Chris Davis (which would move Trumbo to DH or right field).

Here are a few notes on the market’s remaining free agents…

  • One of those free agents appears to be Yovani Gallardo, as SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the the Orioles, Astros and Royals remain the primary suitors for the right-hander. All three of those teams, of course, have been prominently linked to Gallardo in the past, so this isn’t necessarily a new development in his market. However, it’s been awhile since we’ve heard much on the Gallardo front, and the news that all three remain interested is still noteworthy. Any of the three clubs would have to part with a draft pick to sign Gallardo, which might make Kansas City the best fit, as their current pick, No. 24, is the worst of the three teams said to have interest. Additionally, the Royals will gain a draft pick if Alex Gordon signs elsewhere, as many expect, thus softening the blow of parting with the 24th overall selection. The O’s could conceivably land two picks in the event that Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new clubs, but parting with the No. 14 pick would still sting, even if they could recoup much of that slot value via the potential comp picks.
  • If and when the Marlins finalize their near-agreement with right-hander Edwin Jackson, the team will continue its search for starting pitching, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Among the names that could interest the Marlins are Cliff Lee, Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy and Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra, writes Frisaro. However, he notes that the draft pick compensation attached to Kennedy could prevent the Marlins from a strong pursuit of Kennedy. That would seem an odd hold-up for Miami — an organization that has been perfectly willing to trade its Competitive Balance draft selections for seemingly underwhelming returns in past seasons (although their addition of right-hander Bryan Morris in such a trade does now appear to have been a shrewd one). It should also be noted that Kennedy is represented by Scott Boras, with whom Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria and Marlins president David Samson have clashed on numerous occasions over the past year (most notably regarding Boras-represented Marlins players Marcell Ozuna and Jose Fernandez).
  • Infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce is seeking a two-year deal, Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid-Atlantic tweets. He still looks like an interesting bat, and his market remains an interesting one to watch, but Pearce could be forced to wait for more action at the higher end before things clear up for his own outlook. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Pearce would ultimately get a two-year deal with $14MM in guaranteed money.

D-Backs Having “Ongoing Discussions” With Howie Kendrick

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Last week, GM Dave Stewart told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that his Diamondbacks have been in contact with second baseman Howie Kendrick, and today, FOX’s Jon Morosi characterizes discussions between the two sides to be “ongoing.” Nothing is close between the two sides, per Morosi, and it should be noted that Piecoro wrote last week that the D-backs seem reluctant to sign a player that would require draft pick forfeiture, as Kendrick would.

Arizona has a number of infield options already, though presumed starter Chris Owings certainly doesn’t have Kendrick’s track record and is, in fact, coming off a dreadful season that was submarined by shoulder problems. Other internal options for the Diamondbacks at second base include prospect Brandon Drury (though he can also play third base) and struggling veteran Aaron Hill, who has one season remaining on his deal.

Despite the presence of in-house alternatives — at least one of whom, Owings, was recently viewed as a core player in the future — this isn’t the first instance of the D-backs being connected to second base upgrades. Arizona was also said to have discussed a swap of Hill and Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. While that may appear curious at first glance, such a move would’ve saved the Reds quite a bit in terms of salary and relieved some burden from their payroll in the nearer future; Arizona, in turn, would reallocate Hill’s salary to a more productive veteran player. Ultimately, Piecoro reported last week that the D-backs weren’t comfortable with the salary that the Reds wanted them to assume in a Phillips/Hill swap. (And, of course, there’s the question of the trade veto ability that comes with Phillips’ 10-and-5 rights.)

Digression aside, Kendrick would seem to represent an upgrade over what the D-backs have in house. The 32-year-old has batted .295/.340/.414 over the past three seasons despite playing in considerably more pitcher-friendly environments than Arizona’s Chase Field. Kendrick has been remarkably consistent throughout his Major League tenure, providing offense that rates anywhere from a shade below to considerably above the league average when looking at league- and park-adjust metrics such as OPS+ and wRC+. Kendrick has never batted lower than .279 in a full season and never posted an OBP south of .313. His career .293/.333/.423 batting line is impressive and a reflection of his repeated seasons of quality at-bats.

However, Kendrick isn’t without his red flags, either. Much of his value has come from his quality defense over the years, and he took a significant step backwards in that regard last season. Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved pegged Kendrick at -4.5 and -12 runs, respectively, despite his longstanding history of solid glovework. Kendrick, who has also been highly durable, missed more than a month on the disabled list due to a hamstring strain as well. While that incident could very well be isolated in nature, one can’t blame any team for hesitating to surrender a draft pick in order to sign a 32-year-old second baseman with a good-but-not-great bat and possibly deteriorating defensive skills to a long-term pact.

Morosi also notes that the Angels could potentially fit the description of a contending team with a need at second base, though I’d add that owner Arte Moreno’s aversion to the luxury tax would make that a tough fit. If the Angels were to sign Kendrick, from my view, they may as well sign an impact left field bat to upgrade the lineup at that point, shifting Craig Gentry and/or Daniel Nava into backup roles.

Doug Fister Has Received One- And Two-Year Offers

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Doug Fister is one of many intriguing names still available on the free-agent market, and according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the right-hander has received offers of one and two years in length from multiple clubs (Twitter link). To this point, it’s been a quiet offseason in terms of rumors pertaining to the PSI Sports client, although the Tigers, Phillies and, more recently, the Marlins have all been connected to Fister in media reports. (Detroit’s interest was mentioned in November, so he’s probably off the Tigers’ radar now. The same may be true of the Phillies, who were linked to Fister in early December.)

Entering the 2015 season, Fister was part of what looked to be a star-studded class of elite and second-tier arms that were slated to hit the open market this winter. However, the 2015 campaign was the worst of his career by nearly any measure. Fister, of course, began the season in one of the game’s deepest rotations (Nationals), but he surprisingly struggled to the point where he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. While he’s never thrown hard in the past, Fister opened the season averaging just over 86 mph on his fastball and eventually landed on the disabled list in mid-May with a bout of forearm tightness. He returned about a month later but didn’t see much in the way of improved results. All told, the 31-year-old (32 in February) recorded an uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA across 15 starts in his second (and presumably final) season with the Nats. In those 15 starts, Fister logged 86 innings (about 5 2/3 innings per outing) and struck out just 48 hitters — an average of 5.01 per nine innings. Fister’s 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA all matched his unsightly ERA, and his 42 percent ground-ball rate out of the rotation this season was the lowest of his career.

While there’s clearly a long list of red flags surrounding Fister, the upside he brings to the table is also tantalizing. From 2011-14, Fister was one of baseball’s most underrated player, recording a pristine 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate across 750 2/3 innings. He landed on the DL a few times in that stretch for a strained lat muscle and a pair of strained muscles in his side — nothing arm-related — and averaged 188 innings per season in that time (201 per season when factoring in the playoffs, where he owns a 2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).

Fister is entering his age-32 season, and the significant drop in his velocity could be the beginning of a decline phase for the right-hander. However, it’s also worth noting that he handled relief work exceptionally well (2.12 ERA, 15-to-6 K/BB ratio in 17 2/3 innings) and maintained his usual brand of strong control in 2015 (2.1 BB/9). If Fister can reestablish some velocity or learn to alter his style to succeed with diminished heat, he could prove to be an excellent value on a one- or two-year contract. And, if he goes the one-year route, he could re-enter the free-agent market next winter in a definitively thinner starting pitching class.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the high-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but I will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his second year of arbitration coming off a Cy Young Award and is due to get a large raise from his 2015 salary of $3.63MM. Our model technically has him projected to receive $10.9MM next season — a $7.27MM raise — but due to our “Kimbrel Rule,” this has been revised down to $10.4MM. The Kimbrel Rule states that no player can receive a raise more than $1MM larger than the current record raise for a player in his service class. The rule was named after Craig Kimbrel a couple of years ago when his track record entering arbitration so far outdid potential comparables that we did not believe the result the model produced. Given that there are generally limits to the extent by which players break existing arbitration records, we have adjusted the model to reflect this and come up with a number of around $1MM.

Jake Arrieta

Arrieta’s case is a good application of the Kimbrel Rule, considering the fact that no player in recent years has matched Arrieta’s achievements heading into his second year of arbitration eligibility. The only recent player to win a Cy Young in Arrieta’s service class was David Price three years ago, who went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA. Comparatively, Arrieta won a couple of extra games and recorded a far superior ERA: he was 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Additionally, Arrieta’s 229 innings and 236 strikeouts surpassed Price’s respective totals of 211 and 205 by a significant margin. Price received a $5.76MM raise, so the Kimbrel Rule gives Arrieta projected $6.76MM raise — good for a $10.4MM salary projected for 2016.

Another potential comparable that could come up in a hearing is Felix Hernandez’s 2010 season. Although Hernandez ultimately signed a multi-year deal, he initially exchanged figures with the Mariners after going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA. The Mariners offered a $3.4MM raise, while he asked for a $7.7MM raise. Since Price ended up roughly between these two numbers three years later and had won a Cy Young, though, it would be tough for the Cubs to argue that the Hernandez case is more applicable than the case of Price. Hernandez did have the lowest ERA of any pitcher entering his second year of arbitration eligibility in recent seasons, however, but even this was nearly three quarters of a run greater than Arrieta’s 1.77 mark.

Although Price did not and Arrieta has not yet, pitchers get multi-year deals in most cases like these. The downside risk of injury for a pitcher usually encourages them to hedge and cash in on their success, and the risk for the team to have to bid against other teams in the free agent market encourages them to cut a deal as well. As a result, it is difficult to find many elite pitchers who go year-to-year in arbitration. Price was the only pitcher in recent years entering his second year of arbitration eligibility as a 20-game winner, in addition to being the only Cy Young winner. However, Arrieta’s far superior ERA makes Price a weak potential comparable, certainly more of a floor than a ceiling.

If Arrieta does not sign a multi-year deal, he is likely to set a record for second-year arbitration-eligible raises for starting pitchers that will set the baseline going forward. Where he lands will be an excellent test of the Kimbrel Rule, since he perfectly fits the example of pitchers who outperformed their service class in recent years on all arbitration-relevant statistics.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Have 2015’s Worst Bullpens Improved Thus Far?

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Over the weekend, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth broke down the improvements (or lack thereof) that have been made to the five worst offenses from 2015 thus far. While there’s still a good deal of time remaining this offseason — we can revisit these examinations again come Opening Day — many teams have completed the bulk of their offseason lifting. Perhaps most notably, when it comes to the bullpen, many of the top-flight free agents and trade candidates are off the board. There are still some quality relievers to be had on the free-agent market — Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Clippard stand out as two of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents that remain unsigned — but the bulk of the relief arms on the market appear headed for one-year commitments or minor league deals.

By ERA, the Rockies, Braves, Athletics, Tigers and Red Sox had the five worst bullpens in baseball in 2015. When sorting the Fangraphs team leaderboards by either FIP or xFIP, we see the bottom five results include four of those teams, though in various orders and combinations. So, while there are obviously many ways to categorize the collective efforts of teams’ relief corps, those five seem a reasonable enough starting point for this exercise.

Rockies (4.70 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 4.23 xFIP): Colorado’s offseason began with the somewhat surprising decision to designate John Axford for assignment, though the mustachioed closer came out ahead in the ordeal. Projected to earn $6.5MM this winter, Axford elected free agency following his DFA and scored a two-year, $10MM guarantee with the A’s that includes additional incentives. Colorado also cut ties with former closer of the future Rex Brothers and right-hander Tommy Kahnle. That pair of decisions was less surprising, as the two relievers combined to issue 36 walks in 43 2/3 innings. In their places, Colorado has signed veteran right-handers Jason Motte and Chad Qualls to two-year deals worth $10MM and $6MM, respectively. One can argue that Motte is a curious fit, to be sure, as a pitcher that neither misses bats nor induces grounders, but Qualls’ 60 percent ground-ball rate and K-BB% of 18.3 percent is appealing even if his ERA was more troublesome in 2015. Colorado will also probably benefit from Adam Ottavino’s eventual return. The 30-year-old was excellent from 2013-15 before undergoing Tommy John surgery after 10 1/3 brilliant innings last season. The Rox felt confident enough in Ottavino to give him what was to many an eyebrow-raising $10.4MM extension spanning 2016-18, but if he returns anywhere near his 2013-15 form, that price will be more than acceptable. Increased usage from intriguing righties Jairo Diaz and Miguel Castro could also yield better results, but it does appear, on paper, that there’s room for further additions here.

Braves (4.69 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 4.29 xFIP): The Braves have added a slew of minor league arms in trades over the past 12 to 15 months, many of whom will eventually figure into the team’s bullpen, even if some are presently viewed as starters. This winter, the team has brought back Jim Johnson on a one-year deal with the hopes that he’ll recreate the success he found in Atlanta last season while avoiding the type of meltdown he had following his trade to the Dodgers. Also returning to the club is right-hander David Carpenter, who signed a minor league pact after a down season in 2015 following a trade from Atlanta to the Yankees last winter. (That trade netted Manny Banuelos, though the Braves also parted with Chasen Shreve.) Alexi Ogando serves as another notable right-hander to land a minor league deal with Atlanta, and he’ll presumably compete for a bullpen role this spring. Right-hander Jose Ramirez also joined the Braves in a trade with the Mariners, giving the team a high-upside arm, albeit it one with some question marks (durability, control). Also coming by way of trade is lefty Ian Krol, though he had a down season in Detroit before being included in the Cameron Maybin trade. Right-hander Shae Simmons will be returning from Tommy John surgery, and fallen closer Jason Grilli should make his way back from a season-ending Achillies injury in the early portion of next season as well. Ultimately, however, the Braves are looking more to the collection of young arms they’ve stockpiled the past two winters than flashy moves to bolster their bullpen — not a surprising tactic for a club that is in the middle of rebuilding. It’s possible that Atlanta will make further one-year additions, as such players could become trade chips this winter.

Athletics (4.63 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 4.21 xFIP): Oakland has been one of the most active clubs in adding bullpen help this winter, shelling out a combined $32MM for Axford (two years, $10MM) and Ryan Madson (three years, $22MM). Madson’s contract was something of a shock, considering the fact that he’s 35 years old and 2015 was the first time he’d been healthy enough to throw in a Major League game since 2011. However, his track record prior to his lengthy injury layoff and last year’s results were outstanding. Axford’s season was bizarrely segmented, as he yielded 19 runs in just 17 2/3 innings across the middle two months of the season but sandwiched those ugly results between 38 other innings in which he allowed just seven total runs. A move to a far better pitchers’ park figures to help Axford, though it seems that control will always be an issue for him. Oakland also added lefty Marc Rzepczynski in a trade with the Padres that sent Drew Pomeranz to San Diego. Closer Sean Doolittle should be in better health this season, and if he’s back to form, he represents one of the game’s better lefty relievers. Also new to the green and gold is Australian hurler Liam Hendriks, added in a trade that sent Jesse Chavez to Toronto. Hendriks never panned out as a starter despite promising minor league numbers with Minnesota, but he flourished as a relief pitcher last year with a 2.92 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 64 2/3 innings with the Jays.

Tigers (4.38 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 4.38 xFIP): Detroit’s nearly identical ERA/FIP/xFIP is rather remarkable in terms of similarity, but it also speaks to the underwhelming relief pitching that has now plagued the team for several years. New GM Al Avila has acted decisively in seeking to upgrade the ’pen, shedding Krol and right-hander Al Alburquerque (via trade and non-tender, respectively). Francisco Rodriguez will serve as the new closer in Detroit after coming over in a trade from the Brewers (minor leaguer Javier Betancourt was the primary piece sent to Milwaukee). Avila added right-hander Mark Lowe on a two-year, $11MM deal that reflects Detroit’s confidence in the hard-thrower’s 2015 resurgence. The Tigers also landed southpaw Justin Wilson from the Yankees by sending a pair of pitching prospects to New York. The Tigers will hope that the combination of K-Rod, Lowe and Wilson will pair with an improved Bruce Rondon to give the team the quality relief contingent it has so often lacked. They’ll also again look to Alex Wilson to play an important role, although the right-hander’s middling strikeout rate is something of a concern.

Red Sox (4.24 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.35 xFIP): The expectation when Dave Dombrowski came on board as president of baseball operations was that he’d shake up the bullpen and show no fear in trading prospects, and that exact scenario manifested with the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel. The Sox paid an exorbitant price to land three years of Kimbrel, parting with Javier Guerra, Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. However, pairing Kimbrel with Koji Uehara (who will move back to a setup role) wasn’t where Dombrowski stopped; the new Boston exec also added right-hander Carson Smith in a trade that sent Wade Miley to the Mariners. Smith is far from a household name but quietly enjoyed one of the more dominant rookie seasons in recent memory last year, posting a 2.31 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 64.8 percent ground-ball rate. Roenis Elias, also acquired in that trade, could serve as starting depth but would also be intriguing in a left-handed relief role, based on his career splits.

NL East Notes: Nova, Marlins, Taylor, Mets

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The Marlins are known to be seeking starting pitching, and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported over the weekend that “Miami has had interest” in a trade for Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova this winter. The match makes some sense on paper, as Nova, who is reportedly being shopped by the Yankees, will be affordable at a projected $4.4MM (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), which would come in well within Miami’s budget. The Marlins have been linked to starters and said to be comfortable in the range of a $12MM annual value, so Nova’s relatively modest salary shouldn’t be a problem. The link to Nova continues somewhat of a recent shift in reports pertaining to Miami’s search for rotation upgrades; the Marlins have now been connected to Nova, Doug Fister, Cliff Lee and Edwin Jackson within the past week — all likely one-year commitments. Previously, the team was linked to multi-year deals for starting pitchers and was also said to be eyeing young starting pitching in trade scenarios with a variety of teams, including the Indians and Mariners. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna could yet return a notable starting pitcher, but Miami’s asking price on the 24-year-old has been high (he certainly wouldn’t be in play in any talks for Nova).

A few more notes from the NL East…

  • “We’re still talking with players and looking for ways to add to our overall depth,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro yesterday when asked about the team’s starting pitching. As things currently stand, Frisaro lists Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley and either Justin Nicolino or David Phelps as the four starters that would follow Jose Fernandez in the rotation. Clearly, there’s a good deal of uncertainty there, and Frisaro runs down some other internal options that are either MLB-ready or close to earning that distinction, including right-hander Jose Urena, right-hander Kendry Flores and left-hander Jarlin Garcia.
  • Michael A. Taylor’s role with the Nationals in 2016 is up in the air at this time, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. While Taylor, who is entering his age-25 season, showed impressive defense and a nice blend of speed/power last season in an unexpectedly regular role (necessitated by injuries to Denard Span and Jayson Werth), he also struck out in nearly 31 percent of his plate appearances and displayed a lack of plate discipline, thereby yielding OBP questions. As things stand right now, Taylor is penciled in as Washington’s opening day center fielder. However, the team’s reported interest in names like Jason Heyward, Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra seems to indicate some discontent with the current outfield trio, Janes notes. Interestingly, she doesn’t seem to think that Taylor would head to Triple-A for regular at-bats even in the event of a significant outfield addition, instead writing that Taylor “would likely slide into the role of superutility outfielder,” spelling the aging, injury-prone Werth and others as needed.
  • The Mets are still open to signing a veteran arm for their bullpen, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo in his latest Inbox column. Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins are locks to fit in, and at least three of Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel, Carlos Torres, Logan Verrett and Hansel Robles should end up in the ’pen as well, DiComo writes (or, presumably, four of the five, in absence of the aforementioned veteran addition). With lefties Josh Smoker and Dario Alvarez as well as righties Jim Henderson and Rafael Montero also serving as possibilities, the team does have quite a bit of depth, DiComo notes.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Pompey, Yankees

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Here’s some news from around baseball as we wrap up the first weekend of 2016…

  • “So many teams have spent their money on pitching that they don’t have much left for hitting,” an executive tells John Perrotto of TodaysKnuckleball.com in explaining why so many of the biggest free agent bats are still available.  This could mean that some of the notable names may end up for signing than less than expected due to lack of a hot market.  Then again, the inverse could also be true — an unexpected trade or injury could suddenly create a suitor willing to pay top dollar to fill a lineup need.  Perrotto’s piece also includes his guesses about where 10 of the top remaining free agents will land.
  • The Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles and White Sox seem to be the teams most poised to make a big move or two in January, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince writes.
  • Dalton Pompey is an important depth piece for the Blue Jays in 2016 and a big part of their future outfield plans, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Given Ben Revere’s rising arbitration price tag and the fact that Jose Bautista is a free agent next winter, Pompey may be called upon as a regular in 2017, so Chisholm doubts the Jays would make Pompey a trade chip unless they’re able to obtain a big return.  While Pompey hasn’t shown much in limited MLB action, he’s also just 23 and a year removed from being a consensus top-50 (or better) prospect.
  • Also from Chisholm’s piece, he lists the 11 member of the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster who are out of options, with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera, catcher A.J. Jimenez, and righty relievers Steve Delabar and Chad Jenkins standing out as “ones to watch” on the roster bubble.  The Jays would ideally like to use Jimenez in Triple-A while Carrera, Delabar and Jenkins will be in the mix for jobs on the Opening Day roster.
  • In another reader mailbag, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch addresses the idea of whether or not the Yankees could retain the likes of Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Carlos Beltran on one-year contracts after their expensive multi-year deals expire within the next two seasons.  Hoch feels it’s probably a longshot for any of them to remain in New York since the team wants a younger team and more roster flexibility — Greg Bird and Aaron Judge are poised to replace Teixeira and Beltran, for instance.  Sabathia may be the best candidate to be retained given how expensive pitching is, though that also may be unlikely given Sabathia’s ongoing knee issues.

AL Notes: Angels, Freeman, Astros, Vargas

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It was on this day in 1973 that George Steinbrenner and a group of investors purchased the Yankees from CBS.  While the amount of money in the game has unquestionably risen by leaps and bounds in the last 43 years, it’s still stunning to realize that Steinbrenner and company paid only $10MM to buy a team that Forbes now values a whopping $1.85 billion in their most recent ranking of the world’s most valuable sports franchises.  (The Yankees tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third on that list, by the way, behind only soccer giants Manchester United and Real Madrid.)  Here’s some news from around the American League…

  • With the Angels uneasy about surpassing the luxury tax threshold, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez looks at how the club can upgrade itself.  Gonzalez thinks the Halos will move a starter (at least one of Hector Santiago, C.J. Wilson, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano or Matt Shoemaker) in order to acquire a left fielder or second baseman.  Then again, the Angels may also be comfortable in having Johnny Giavotella return as the regular second baseman so that position may not be as major an area of need.
  • A Craig Gentry/Daniel Nava platoon is currently in the cards for left field, though Gonzalez won’t rule out the idea of Anaheim signing a big name like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon or Yoenis Cespedes.  With the Halos only around $4MM under the tax limit, however, signing any of those players (or even second-tier outfielders like Gerardo Parra or Denard Span) would put the club in danger of exceeding the tax threshold in 2017 as well, and thus paying a bigger penalty.  With a much thinner free agent class in 2016-17, however, Gonzalez believes “this is the time to strike” for the Angels to land a big left field bat, and they’ll have some hope of getting under the tax limit with roughly $48MM coming off the books next winter.
  • An Astros trade for Freddie Freeman is “simply not going to happen,” a source tells ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription-only column).  The Astros and Braves had discussions about the first baseman earlier this winter, though those talks “went nowhere” and Atlanta GM John Coppolella has since flatly denied the possibility of Freeman playing elsewhere in 2016.  While Freeman would check a lot of boxes for Houston, it would clearly take a major trade package to pry him away from the Braves, and the Astros may have already expended a lot of their available prospect capital in their trade for Ken Giles.
  • Bowden’s piece examines all 30 teams and the missing piece (or pieces) Bowden feels they still need to address on their roster.  For instance, Bowden isn’t sold on Rusney Castillo and thinks the Red Sox should make a play for Justin Upton, though he’s heard that the Sox are “not looking to make any more moves.”
  • There were some rumors swirling about the Twins dealing Kennys Vargas to Japan or Korea earlier this winter, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger feels it would be a mistake for Minnesota to move Vargas while he still has a minor league option remaining.  Still, Vargas is running out of time to show he belongs on the 25-man roster, especially now that the Twins have signed Byung-ho Park.

NL East Notes: Prospects, Phillies, Giles, Mets

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Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

  • The top three prospects involved in trades this offseason were all acquired by the Braves, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes.  Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair sit atop Cooper’s ranking of the top 25 prospects who were dealt this winter.  Swanson and Blair came to Atlanta as part of the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona while Newcomb was part of the package that came to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons deal with the Angels.
  • With the Phillies embarking on a full-fledged rebuild, it wouldn’t have made sense for the club to sign a major free agent simply in the name of boosting attendance, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes as part of a reader mailbag.  The organization has shown that it will spend heavily to support a contender, so Zolecki doesn’t doubt that the big signings will follow once a young core of talent is again in place.
  • Zolecki also gives his take on the Ken Giles trade, opining that the Phillies did well in landing five young starting pitchers given the cost of pitching in today’s game.  Developing even one mid-range arm out of the quintet will provide the Phils with more value than having a star closer would in a rebuilding season.  When the Phillies are ready to contend again, Zolecki notes, it will also be much easier (and cheaper) to find another closer than it would be to add rotation help.
  • The Mets haven’t yet decided on which internal candidates will receive Spring Training invitations to their big league camp, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports (via Twitter).  In a follow-up tweet, Rubin gives his take on which players will be invited.
  • In NL East news from earlier today, the Braves are trying to trade at least one of Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher.

Braves Trying To Deal At Least One Of Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher

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The Braves are looking to trade at least one of Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher before Opening Day and they’re willing to “to eat a significant portion of the salary” owed to either player to facilitate a deal, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports.

Given how aggressive Atlanta has already been on the trade market this winter, it’s no surprise that the rebuilding club is exploring getting at least some of the money owed to those two veterans off the team’s books.  Swisher is owed $15MM in 2016 and he has a $14MM vesting option for 2017 that will be guaranteed if he makes 550 plate appearances next season and passes an end-of-year physical.  Bourn is owed $14MM in 2016 with a $12MM vesting option for 2017 that also becomes guaranteed at the 550-PA plateau.  Of the $29MM owed to the duo in 2016, however, $10MM will be covered by the Indians as part of the trade that brought both men to Atlanta in exchange for Chris Johnson last August.

Neither of those options seem particularly likely to vest while the two players are on Atlanta’s roster given how Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base and the starting outfield is slated to consist of Hector Olivera, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis.  Emilio Bonifacio is also on hand as a low-cost backup center fielder, so Bowman thinks Bourn could be more expendable than Swisher, who can theoretically provide more value as a backup at first and both corner slots.

The big question about Swisher, however, is whether he’d be productive (or even able to play) over a full season given his surgically-repaired knees, even on a part-time basis.  It’s worth noting that Bourn has also had his share of injury problems, as hamstring issues have undoubtedly played a role in his declining defense and stolen-base statistics over the last two seasons.

Between the injuries and struggles at the plate, Bourn (0.4 fWAR in 2014-15) and Swisher (-2.3 fWAR) are far from sterling trade candidates.  It’s not completely out of the question, however, that the Braves could find a trade partner since they’re willing to eat some money.  If the Braves are willing to pay as much as half of either player’s salary, and assuming Cleveland’s $10MM contribution is being split equally, Swisher and Bourn now cost in the neighborhood of $5MM and $4.5MM, respectively, for 2016.  Those could be palatable prices for clubs looking for experienced veterans in backup roles, especially if there’s a team that believes Bourn or Swisher could rebound in a new environment.

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