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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger

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4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).

Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.

1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.

The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.

Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.

This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.

Orioles Claim Richard Urena, Designate Pat Valaika

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The Orioles have claimed infielder Richard Urena off waivers from the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. Fellow infielder Pat Valaika was designated for assignment to create roster space.

Urena becomes the latest young infielder to earn a look in Baltimore. Of course, the same would’ve been said of Valaika, who was claimed earlier in the offseason but now ends up back in DFA limbo. He could still get a shot in camp if he clears waivers and remains with the Baltimore organization.

The O’s will hope that there’s still some development left for Urena, who hasn’t quite grown into the promise he has shown at times. He’s still over a month shy of his 24th birthday and hasn’t received consistent opportunities in the majors, though he has struggled about as much at the plate in the upper minors as he has at the MLB level.

Urena has turned in a .367 OBP through 159 plate appearances in the Dominican Winter League. But that’s driven by a lofty batting average (.292) and hasn’t come with much power (2 home runs, .365 slugging percentage). Perhaps he can squeak onto the roster as a utility player even if he doesn’t show an uptick with the bat. Otherwise, the out-of-options Urena could end up being exposed to waivers once again.

Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Ken Giles

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The Blue Jays have struck a deal with closer Ken Giles for his 2020 arbitration salary, per Scott Mitchell of TSN (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $9.6MM, a $3.3MM on last year’s salary.

Giles is coming off of an excellent season in which he was one of the game’s most effective relief pitchers. While he missed a bit of action with elbow troubles — at an inopportune moment, in the run-up to the trade deadline — he bounced back to finish strong. All said, Giles finished with 53 innings of 1.87 ERA pitching and a healthy compilation of 83 strikeouts and 23 saves.

MLBTR had projected a $8.4MM salary for Giles, but the team obviously felt it had to pay more. The threat of a hearing may have helped move the needle. Uncertainty would be especially unwelcome if the Toronto organization views Giles as a trade candidate.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Reds Avoid Arbitration With Trevor Bauer

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The Reds have worked out a deal with right-hander Trevor Bauer, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll pitch for $17.5MM in 2020 rather than going to a third-straight hearing.

The MLBTR/Matt Swartz model projected a beefier raise than the $4.5MM that Bauer will ultimately receive. But as Matt explained recently in a detailed breakdown of Bauer’s case, the model’s predicted $5.6MM raise (to a $18.6MM salary) felt a bit lofty when examining specific recent comps.

It’s an important number, not just for Bauer and the Reds. As the above-linked post explains, this sets a new reference point for pitchers of this type — i.e., those that have thrown a lot of innings and perhaps even produced a big strikeout tally in their platform year, but with uninspiring results in the earned-run department.

Bauer had secured big victories in hearings with the Indians in each of the prior two offseasons. But he saw eye to eye with his new organization, which picked him up in a surprising trade in the summer of 2019.

This time around, Bauer was carrying a somewhat less enticing statistical record. He racked up the innings (213) and strikeouts (253), but ended the 2019 season with only a 4.48 ERA as well as a losing record (which does factor for arbitration).

Mariners Claim Sam Haggerty

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The Mariners have claimed utilityman Sam Haggerty off waivers from the Mets, the Seattle club announced. He had recently been designated for assignment.

Haggerty has only minimal MLB experience and has actually only played in 19 games at the highest level of the minors. Through 643 plate appearances at Double-A over the past two campaigns, he owns a .250/.371/.378 batting line.

Athletics Avoid Arbitration With Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks

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The Athletics have avoided arbitration with a series of key players. Of particular note, shortstop Marcus Semien will earn $13MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Increasingly excellent reliever Liam Hendriks also gets a nice boost, checking in at $5.3MM, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Ditto outfielder Mark Canha, who’ll earn $4.8MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).

Also securing notable numbers were lefty Sean Manaea ($3.75MM) and outfielder Robbie Grossman ($3.725MM) with those reports also coming from the Twitter accounts of Slusser and Nightengale. Righty Chris Bassitt also finished off a $2.25MM deal at the last moment, Slusser tweets, thus completing the Oakland arb business for the offseason.

As compared to the projected arb values, most of the numbers don’t stand out. Semien is half a million shy of the mark set by the model, while Hendriks ($200K) and Canha ($100K) also come in just under that level. Manaea and Grossman bettered their projections ($3.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively) while Bassitt fell shy of his ($2.8MM).

It remains to be seen whether there’ll be further contract talks between the A’s and Semien, who stands out as an extension target as he enters his final season of team control. In all likelihood, it would take a team-record contract to keep him around after a breakout 2019 campaign. Hendriks is also slated to hit the open market at the close of the coming season.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Betts, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, will receive a record-setting $27MM for his final season of club control. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, tweets that Bradley will earn $11MM. Betts’ record payout comes in $700K shy of his $27.7MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, while Bradley’s $11MM salary is an exact match with his projection.  The Boston organization also locked up righty Brandon Workman to a $3.5MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Betts’ contract sets a record for an arbitration salary, topping previous record holder Nolan Arenado’s old mark by a full million dollars. He’ll head into his final season of club control as one of the more fascinating storylines in baseball; Red Sox ownership reportedly is intent on dipping south of the luxury tax, and while there’s been no indication that the team is definitively planning to move Betts this winter — much the opposite, as of late, in fact — they could find themselves in a trickier situation as the trade deadline approaches.

Boston could yet take another run at extending Betts, but the former AL MVP has been vocal and candid about his desire to test the open market once he accrues six years of Major League service. As such, the team’s previous efforts to hammer out a long-term deal have fallen flat.

It’s another case altogether with Bradley, who is also entering his final year of club control but is a much more plausible trade candidate. Moving him wouldn’t dip the Red Sox below the luxury line in one fell swoop, as moving Betts effectively would, but as the season draws nearer it’d be a surprise if Bradley’s name weren’t bandied about the rumor circuit to an extent. While his overall season numbers in 2019 weren’t particularly eye-catching, Bradley hit .252/.342/.504 over his final 422 plate appearances and has long been considered a standout defender. Given the lack of center field options available in free agency, he could yet hold appeal to a club looking for a short-term boost in center.

Diamondbacks To Extend David Peralta

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The Diamondbacks and outfielder David Peralta are in agreement on a three-year extension that’ll guarantee the ACES client a total of $22MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). He can earn another $1.25MM annually via incentives. The contract will pay Peralta $7MM in 2020 and $7.5MM in each of the two subsequent seasons, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

David Peralta | Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Peralta was arbitration-eligible for the final time and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM. Instead, he’ll sign away a pair of free-agent years on a contract that spans his age-32 through age-34 seasons.

The deal looks to be a sound one for the D-backs, who owed Peralta a raise on last season’s $7MM salary. While the exact number he’d have secured can’t be known, even if he’d fallen shy of his $8.8MM projection, it still looks as though Peralta is signing away two free-agent years at a total of no more than $14MM. That falls a bit shy of what Corey Dickerson just received from the Marlins ($17.5MM), though it’s worth noting that Peralta is a bit older. All the same, Arizona looks to have carved out a nice value with the move.

Peralta, 32, hit .275/.343/.461 (107 wRC+) with a dozen homers, 29 doubles and three triples in 99 games/423 plate appearances with the Snakes in 2019. He endured three separate stints on the injured list due to an issue with the AC joint in his right shoulder, which limited his time on the field and likely helped to sap his production. A year prior, in 2018, Peralta put together then finest season of his career when he slashed .293/.352/.516 with 30 long balls.

Both Baseball-Reference (8.4) and FanGraphs (7.7) agree that Peralta has been worth in the vicinity of eight wins above replacement over the past three years. He’s consistently been an above-average bat and at least an average defender in the outfield corners, and his 2019 season rated particularly well according to most defensive metrics, as he took home a Gold Glove Award. While there’s always some risk of decline as he enters his mid-30s — particularly coming off a shoulder issue — it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks preferred to keep him in the fold beyond his preexisting level of club control.

From a payroll standpoint, the deal actually helps to lower Arizona’s bottom line in 2020. Peralta’s salary for the coming season is the same as his 2019 salary and $1.8MM shy of where he’d been projected in arbitration, leaving the club with a roughly $114MM payroll (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). The D-backs had less than $60MM on the books in 2021 and less than $40MM in 2022 prior to brokering this multi-year arrangement, so fitting him onto the ledger for an additional two seasons was rather easy.

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