Braves Rumors

Projecting Payrolls: Atlanta Braves

By Rob Huff | November 21, 2018 at 3:10pm CDT

As we kick off the fourth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we’re heading back to the National League East to examine the payroll situation of a burgeoning juggernaut: the Atlanta Braves.

Team Leadership

While most baseball franchises are now owned by families or groups of them, the Braves have been owned by corporate entities since 1996. Time Warner purchased the club, along with TBS, from Ted Turner and Turner Broadcasting in 1996, then sold the club in 2007 to Liberty Media Corp., the current owner, as part of a convoluted transaction involving billions of dollars worth of assets. The human face of ownership is that of chairman Terry McGuirk, a lifer at Time Warner.

The baseball operations department is headed by executive vice president and chairman Alex Anthopoulos. After serving as general manager of the Blue Jays from 2010-15, Anthopoulos turned down a five-year extension from the club to remain in his current role, instead spending two years as a vice president with the Dodgers. The arrival of new president Mark Shapiro reportedly played a significant role in his decision to leave Toronto. In the end, Anthopoulos found his way to a superior situation, taking over the Braves front office just over one year ago and inheriting a loaded farm system outside of the rigors of the wildly competitive American League East.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Braves, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Using this time frame for the Braves captures the end of Turner’s ownership period, a spending downfall from the peak of $106.2 million in 2003. Braves spending was remarkably consistent from 2005-16 before a notable jump in 2017. Here is what the Braves have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

After spending like a top-10 club for much of Turner’s ownership, the Braves have spent like a mid-market team throughout Liberty’s ownership, never ranking higher than 13th or lower than 22nd in end-of-season payroll.

Atlanta’s spending hasn’t been limited to Major League talent by any stretch. In fact, their penchant for swimming in the international amateur market got them into deep trouble and helped propel Anthopoulos to the general manager’s job. The Braves infamously split the signing bonuses paid to top amateurs between the the elite prospects and lesser “foreign professionals” for whom bonuses were exempt from international signing restrictions. This enabled the team to funnel additional money to top amateurs without being forced to incur stringent tax liabilities. Unfortunately for the club, when their deceit was uncovered by Major League Baseball, it resulted in the exodus of many top amateurs, including elite target Kevin Maitan, and much of the club’s leadership, including president John Hart and general manager John Coppolella. The Braves will be significantly restricted from signing expensive international amateurs in the next two summers, so they’ll paradoxically have more cash available for spending on Major League talent should they choose to allocate the unspent funds in that way.

Future Liabilities

The Braves have truly remarkably little on the books in terms of long-term commitments. Organizational stalwart Freddie Freeman has three years remaining on his deal and defensive wizard Ender Inciarte has three years plus an inexpensive club option for a fourth. That’s it for guaranteed money beyond 2019…at least, that’s it for current players. Here is a look at their future guarantees with the peach highlight indicative of 2020 club options for Julio Teheran and Tyler Flowers. Note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The top portion of this chart is relatively straightforward: the Braves have long-term commitments for Freeman and Inciarte and one-year commitments for Teheran, O’Day, and Flowers, unless they want more for Teheran or Flowers via the options.

The bottom portion? The bottom portion carries the intrigue. We’ll start with O’Day, the simpler case study. When the Braves acquired starter Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline, they also agreed to absorb the remaining contract for injured reliever Darren O’Day as a means of limiting the talent package they sent to Baltimore (this should make Braves fans happy and Orioles fans sad). O’Day’s contract called for $1 million each year from 2016-19 to be deferred, payable in equal installments from 2020-23. Perhaps as a sign of how desperate the Orioles were to move payroll, the Braves agreed to absorb the deferred obligations owed to O’Day, even those incurred from money deferred in earlier seasons. As a result, the Braves owe O’Day $1 million for each year of O’Day’s contract, including the time he spent in Baltimore in 2016, 2017, and 2018.

Sutter is an entirely different matter. The Braves signed Sutter to a six-year, $9.1 million deal prior to the 1985 season when Sutter was coming off of a top-10 finish in Most Valuable Player voting having just completed a return to star status after a couple of rocky seasons. With Atlanta, Sutter produced a whopping 0 WAR while sputtering out after three seasons. However, that’s not the source of intrigue. That comes from the extremely unique structure of Sutter’s contract which called for minimal annual payments and massive deferrals, paying Sutter $1.12 million per year for 30 years after he retired. Mercifully for the Braves, Sutter will collect his final annual payment in 2021. Unmercifully for the Braves, Sutter collects the entire $9.1 million principal that year as well. His $10.22 million payment in 2021 may very well rival Mike Foltynewicz for the second largest payout on the team. If the Braves already have Sutter’s balloon payment tucked away and ready for payment in 2021, this is merely a goofy historical anecdote. If, however, the Braves need to come up with the balloon payment, it may have a meaningful impact on the 2021 roster and the team’s willingness to commit future dollars this offseason.

With Sutter out of the way, let’s move to the arbitration projections. Outfielder Adam Duvall and reliever Sam Freeman both appear to be non-tender candidates, but for now, both are included below (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Gausman, Foltynewicz, and Vizcaino all figure to occupy significant chunks of payroll, but all three pitchers are important to the 2019 Braves, so they provide nice value to the contending team.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Anthopoulos was surprisingly forthcoming when discussing Atlanta’s spending plans, telling reporters, “We will have a good amount of money to work with.” This likely doesn’t surprise anyone. The Braves have been a picture of consistency with their spending over the past decade, so it would be stunning to see payroll plummet or explode this offseason.

However, the color that Anthopoulos added to his basic comment provides significantly greater insight: “We’re not going to just walk in the store and buy because we have money in our pockets. If we don’t find the right deal with something we like, there’s still other opportunities to shop. There could be opportunities next season. If you start signing guys to big, long deals, if you feel good about the deal, you do it now. I wouldn’t force a deal right now that would limit you in years from now. I don’t think with our club, with what we have, that the value is going to be there in the free-agent market. It doesn’t mean it won’t. We’ll certainly explore it. But if I could sit here in the middle of October, I’d say it’s more likely we go the trade route. It’s not ideal to give up young assets, but it’s also not ideal to do a deal you don’t believe in — that may look good for a year or two, and then in years three, four and five, it does not.”

Are the Braves a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

It’s entirely possible that some of the above was merely posturing on the part of Anthopoulos as the Braves prepare a foray into the depths of free agency. But given the club’s hesitance to spend at top-of-the-market rates in the past, I would expect that Atlanta’s free agent targets won’t reach the Harper/Machado tier.

However, that said, Atlanta’s salary flexibility and ludicrous hoard of prospect arms ready to fill the Major League rotation for the next half decade or longer mean that the Braves can afford to take a massive swing and miss without crippling the franchise for years. So few teams have such a luxury. As a result, they should be considered a sneaky contender to spend big dollars, especially for Harper as the Braves would likely love to put him in the outfield with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Inciarte. Machado makes a bit less sense given the presence of Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and well-rounded top prospect Austin Riley, but the money is there. There’s just a chasm of disconnect between the figures on paper and the words of the general manager.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

The Braves’ payroll has been quite consistent over the years, and given their historical trajectory and current revenue streams, I’d expect for them to at least comfortably plod along with methodical increases. That might mean something like $130 million in 2019.

However, last year’s club blew open the competitive window. As a result, I foresee a slightly larger increase this year than expected. As a result, they’re likely going to make a significant expensive addition or two. A reunion with Craig Kimbrel makes an awful lot of sense.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $135 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $50.6 million

Latest On Manny Machado & Bryce Harper

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2018 at 8:20am CDT

As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, in a general encapsulation of the state of play in the current free agent market, there’s still not much clarity regarding superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Perhaps, as Kepner suggests, with the two belles of the ball still waiting to find a dance partner, the rest of the participants are still milling about, afraid to commit.

Of course, the market is also operating in the shadow of last winter’s dud of a dance, so the factors influencing the secondary tiers of free agency could reflect broader changes mostly unrelated to Machado and Harper. Whether the matchmaking process will be as slow as it was last year remains to be seen; the more interesting question, though, is simply whether there’ll be more money out there for the good-but-not-great players available. As for Machado and Harper, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be paid handsomely.

It’s interesting, though perhaps not surprising, that the conversation thus far has mostly focused on Harper. As Kepner notes, Harper’s gunslinging agent Scott Boras is selling Harper to suitors as an “iconic” and uniquely marketable player. The ever-visible Boras is, of course, also making that same pitch in very public fashion to and through the media. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, has negotiated some monster deals of his own, so he’s no amateur. Clearly, though, he is not pursuing the sort of media strategy that Boras is.

The differences in the agents’ approaches are perhaps in some part reflections of genuine personality differences in their respective clients. While he hardly carries any kind of reputation for off-field antics, Harper seems to be enjoying his time in the spotlight, playfully dropping hints on social media and an assuredly unscripted TMZ spot. (Did you know: Harper’s dog is still named Wrigley and he quite likes deep dish!)

Machado, meanwhile, has been more or less off the radar entirely — leaving many to hem and haw over the generally distasteful impression he left during the World Series. In an interview published this morning by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Machado has perhaps launched his effort at shifting the narrative somewhat. The 26-year-old casts himself as a humble, hard-working player who shows up every day and cares about winning — which, generally, was his reputation both in and out of baseball circles prior to the recent shift.

Of course, the change in public perception — one that was likely not fully embraced by those that have known him in person for years — was a self-inflicted wound caused by Machado’s cringeworthy comments on hustling as well as some highly questionable on-field actions. Machado says he accepts the blame for how his words came across, but explains: “I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.”

Machado unsurprisingly declines to divulge any details about his thinking on an ultimate destination. Generally, he suggests to Feinsand that he’s open to any and all suitors. And he says he won’t do anything to make the process a more-publicized one than it already promises to be. “When the time comes,” Machado says, “there will probably be a few of the teams that I will sit down with in person, but it’s not something I plan on being very public about.” There’s plenty more to digest from his chat with Feinsand, which is a must-read piece, though Machado surely will still have plenty to answer to when he sits down with team owners who are considering committing hundreds of millions of dollars to employ him.

Generally, the final dollar tallies these two excellent young players will command will be the result of an auction process, the course of which will be determined by the quantity and intensity of team owners waving bidding paddles from the gallery. We don’t yet have a firm sense of the field of Machado bidders, but the rough contours of Harper’s market are beginning to emerge. Notably, it seems he may have two more interesting potential suitors.

It won’t surprise anyone to hear the Cardinals and Braves mentioned as possibilities, as they’ve both long been discussed as teams to keep an eye on. But it’s still notable to see some increasing evidence of real involvement. The owner of the St. Louis franchise, Bill DeWitt III, tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that a move for a top-tier free agent is on the table — though he doesn’t necessarily do so in terms that suggest it’s the likeliest outcome. “We could do it, sure,” says DeWitt. “It’s about (considering) putting all our eggs in one basket. We have the payroll room.”

As for the Atlanta organization, which is owned by a corporate entity (Liberty Media) that is theoretically less likely to be swayed by emotion, it remains a bit difficult to gauge the true level of interest. But David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that he’s getting signs the Braves will be “players in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.” Whether or not the club will turn into a front-runner, let alone land Harper, is obviously still unclear. But it seems fair to presume that the involvement of multiple, serious suitors increases the likelihood that Boras (or, for Machado, Lozano) will be able to convince one team to enter a new contract stratosphere of the kind MLBTR predicted in its ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2018 at 6:15pm CDT

Tonight marks the deadline for players to be added to their respective organizations’ 40-man rosters. Over the nine hours, there’ll be a flurry of moves, ranging from minor trades (like the one the Indians and Rays made yesterday), waiver claims and players being designated for assignment or outrighted. Each will be made to clear room for players who need protection from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players who signed at 18 years of age or younger and have five professional seasons are eligible, as are players who signed at 19 or older and have four professional seasons under their belts.

Here’s a rundown of players who’ve been added to their respective 40-man rosters (which will be updated throughout the day)…

There are three additions for the Twins: outfielder LaMonte Wade and infielders Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez.
The Giants announced that they have added a trio of righties: Melvin Adon, Sam Coonrod, and Logan Webb.
Lefty Justin Steele is now a member of the Cubs’ 40-man, per an announcement.
The Rangers announced that they are protecting veteran hurler Edinson Volquez, who’s returning from Tommy John surgery, along with outfielder Scott Heineman, righty Wei-Chieh Huang, and lefty Taylor Hearn.
Righties Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker, infielder Cole Tucker, and outfielder Jason Martin are all joining the Pirates’ 40-man, per Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter).
The Blue Jays will add righty Patrick Murphy to their 40-man, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Toronto has announced his addition, along with those of fellow righties Trent Thornton, Yennsy Diaz, Hector Perez, and Jacob Waguespack.
Three Indians players have been boosted up to the 40-man, the club announced: first baseman Bobby Bradley, southpaw Sam Hentges, and righty Jean Carlos Mejίa.
Righty Joe Harvey is joining the Yankees’ MLB roster, the club announced.
The Phillies have added shortstop Arquimedes Gamboa along with righties Edgar Garcia and Adonis Medina to the 40-man, per a club announcement.
Former first-round draft pick Dillon Tate, a right-handed pitcher, was selected to the Orioles’ 40-man.

Earlier Additions

The Marlins and Padres each made numerous additions. We covered the Angels and Athletics elsewhere as well.
The Red Sox have bumped several players onto the MLB roster: infielder Michael Chavis, righties Colten Brewer, Travis Lakins and Denyi Reyes, lefties Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez. Brewer was just picked up via trade.
Righty Jimmy Herget is the only player added to the Reds’ 40-man today, per a club announcement.
Per a Diamondbacks announcement, they’ve selected the contracts of first baseman Kevin Cron and four right-handed pitchers: Taylor Clarke, Joel Payamps, Bo Takahashi and Emilio Vargas.
There are three new additions to the Astros roster, per a club announcement. Righties Bryan Abreu and Rogelio Armenteros have had their contracts selected along with catcher Garrett Stubbs.
The White Sox announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Dylan Cease and Jordan Stephens, left-hander Kodi Medeiros and catcher Seby Zavala. Cease, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, joined the Sox in the Jose Quintana trade two years ago. Chicago added Medeiros this summer in the trade that sent Joakim Soria to the Brewers.
Right-hander Justin Lawrence is being added to the Rockies’ roster, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (on Twitter). The 2015 12th-rounder posted a 2.65 ERA with better than 10 punchouts per nine innings in Class-A Advanced this season — a fine followup to a 1.65 ERA at Class-A in 2017. The club has announced that move, along with the additinos of righty Ryan Castellani infielder Josh Fuentes and outfielder Sam Hilliard.
The Brewers have selected the contracts of outfielder Troy Stokes Jr. and right-hander Trey Supak, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). Stokes hit .233/.343/.430 in 551 PAs as a 22-year-old in Double-A this past season. Supak, acquired from the Pirates three years ago, logged a tidy 2.48 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 137 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2018.
The Royals selected the contracts of right-handers Josh Staumont, Scott Blewett and Arnaldo Hernandez, per a team announcement. Staumont is among the team’s most promising arms but has plenty of control issues to accompany big strikeout numbers out of the ’pen. The other two have worked as starters in Double-A.
The Mariners selected the contract of righty Erik Swanson, whom they acquired from the Yankees as part of last night’s James Paxton trade. The 25-year-old righty posted a 2.66 ERA with a 139-to-29 K/BB ratio across multiple minor league levels in ’18 and could surface as a rotation option for Seattle in 2019.
The Tigers selected the contract of right-hander Franklin Perez, the team announced. Perez, the top prospect acquired in the Justin Verlander blockbuster, was an easy call to add to the 40-man even after slogging through an injury-ruined season. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press wrote in August, Perez missed two-plus months with a lat strain and pitched just 19 1/3 innings before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Perez is still widely considered to be a premium pitching prospect even after the 2018 injury woes.
The Nationals announced that righty James Bourque has been added to the 40-man roster. A 14th-round pick in 2014, Bourque moved from the rotation to the ’pen in 2018 and broke out with a 1.70 ERA, 12.9 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 53 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.
The Braves announced that they’ve selected the contracts of catcher Alex Jackson and right-handers Patrick Weigel, Jacob Webb and Huascar Ynoa. Jackson, the No. 6 pick in the 2014 draft, struggled through a miserable 2018 season, but the organization clearly didn’t want to risk losing him. Webb turned in a big season out of the bullpen across two levels, while Weigel, one of the organization’s top arms, should be back from Tommy John in 2019. The 20-year-old Ynoa didn’t post great numbers but was up to 100 mph in velocity this year, per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (Twitter link).

Braves, Ryan LaMarre Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2018 at 2:16pm CDT

The Braves are in agreement with outfielder Ryan LaMarre on a minor league contract, tweets MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. The Octagon client will head to Spring Training and compete for a bench role after spending the 2018 campaign with the Twins and White Sox.

LaMarre, who turns 30 tomorrow, hit .279/.322/.382 in 180 plate appearances between Minnesota and Chicago, adding a pair of homers, 11 doubles and two stolen bases along the way. That offense, though, was buoyed by a .389 BABIP that looks ripe for regression. LaMarre also whiffed in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances, further adding some reason for skepticism.

That said, the journeyman can handle all three outfield spots and does have a .268/.336/.389 slash in parts of six Triple-A seasons. He’ll head to camp and look to crack the roster as a reserve option for manager Brian Snitker.

Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2018 at 4:38pm CDT

4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

NL Notes: Braves, Kimbrel, Dodgers, Jansen, Reds

By Connor Byrne | November 17, 2018 at 10:33pm CDT

A few items from the National League…

Atlanta’s a speculative landing spot for closer Craig Kimbrel, who starred with the Braves from 2010-14 and is now the most proven reliever available in free agency. However, barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll rejoin the Braves this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. MLBTR predicts the 30-year-old Kimbrel will reel in a whopping $70MM guarantee, which could be too much for an Atlanta team that may not be in position to make a big-money splash this offseason, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month. Anthopoulos has made it known the Braves are interested in adding a closer this winter, though, so whether it’s Kimbrel or someone else, it appears the club is primed to bring in some late-game help.
Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen announced Friday that he’ll undergo heart surgery Nov. 26, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com. The procedure comes with a two- to eight-week recovery timeline, meaning Jansen should be fine by spring training. It’ll be the second heart surgery since 2012 for Jansen, who missed time with an irregular heartbeat that season and during both the 2011 and ’18 campaigns. The 31-year-old has been particularly susceptible to an irregular heartbeat at high altitude – the issue cropped up in Colorado in 2012, and he was hospitalized after a game at Coors Field last August. As a result, Jansen sat out a road series against the Rockies in September on doctors’ recommendation.
The Reds have hired J.R. House to serve as their third base coach and catching coach, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. The 39-year-old House will replace Billy Hatcher, who had been the Reds’ third base coach, and ex-catching coach Mike Stefanski, though it’s not yet known if those two will stay in the organization in different roles, per Sheldon. House, a former professional catcher and first basemen, spent the past seven seasons in player development with the Diamondbacks. He’s the third new hire for rookie manager David Bell, who previously tabbed Derek Johnson as the Reds’ pitching coach and Turner Ward as their hitting coach.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

By Ty Bradley | November 17, 2018 at 5:58pm CDT

Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason. The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old. If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals. In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year. The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work. Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view. Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs. The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow. A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball. Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average. ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment? Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board? Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier? Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause? Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade? And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor. Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’ The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block. The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against. The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.” After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19. The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season. Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018. With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation. After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors. Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf. The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019. There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years. With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux. Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper. Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree. Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms. The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side. The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market. The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

New York Yankees 55.14% (11,212 votes)

Other 14.99% (3,048 votes)

Philadelphia Phillies 11.73% (2,385 votes)

Atlanta Braves 8.06% (1,639 votes)

Houston Astros 5.62% (1,143 votes)

Washington Nationals 4.45% (905 votes)

Total Votes: 20,332

Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 12:36pm CDT

12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.

9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.

Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.

The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.

A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.

Brian Snitker, Bob Melvin Win Manager Of The Year Awards

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2018 at 5:56pm CDT

Braves manager Brian Snitker and Athletics skipper Bob Melvin were named Manager of the Year in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association Of America announced Tuesday. As a reminder, votes were submitted prior to the beginning of postseason play.

Snitker received 17 first-place votes and edged out Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell 116 to 99 on the weighted ballot system. Colorado’s Bud Black, St. Louis’ Mike Shildt and Chicago’s Joe Maddon rounded out the NL ballot, in that order (full voting breakdown here). In the American League, Melvin topped Boston’s Alex Cora by a score of 121 to 79. Tampa’s Kevin Cash, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and New York’s Aaron Boone rounded out the ballot, in that order (full breakdown).

Snitker, 63, has spent more than two decades in the Braves organization, including three separate stints on the team’s big league coaching staff and 15 seasons as a skipper in the team’s minor league ranks. The Braves lifer was named interim manager upon the dismissal of Fredi Gonzalez in May 2016, and while that move wasn’t expected to become permanent at the time, Snitker has impressed a pair of different front office regimes while deftly managing an increasingly youthful roster that now looks poised for perennial contention in the National League East.

Much has been made of the Braves’ rebuild over the past several seasons, as Atlanta has dealt away stars like Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton, among others, while stockpiling minor league talent with an eye towards a sustainable run of contending rosters. The front office no longer resembles the group that began the rebuild, following the stunning resignation of GM John Coppolella in the wake of infractions on the international free-agent market and the quieter departure of former president John Hart; the constant throughout that turmoil was that Snitker was the voice of leadership in the dugout.

Expectations for the Braves headed into the 2018 campaign weren’t exactly high, but the emergence of Ronald Acuna, a huge first half from Ozzie Albies, resurgent efforts from Nick Markakis and Anibal Sanchez, and the ultra-consistent Freddie Freeman — all under the tutelage of Snitker and a veteran coaching staff — helped to fuel a 90-72 club that surprisingly took home the NL East division crown.

As for Melvin, this is his third Manager of the Year Award, having previously taken home the honor with the 2012 A’s and the 2007 Diamondbacks. As was the case with the Braves, Oakland entered the season as a perceived long shot to make the postseason. Doubts about their ability to do so undoubtedly continued into the summer, as Oakland sat at 34-36 and faced an 11.5 game deficit in the American League West on June 15.

What followed was one of the most impressive streaks in recent history, as the A’s closed out the season with a ridiculous 63-29 pace, leaving the division-rival Mariners and Cash’s Rays in the dust as they marched to a 97-65 finish and an improbable American League Wild Card berth. That the Athletics were able to do so despite a catastrophic level of injury in the starting rotation made the feat all the more incredible. Through it all, Melvin kept his club in good spirits and managed a patchwork rotation comprised primarily of 2017-18 non-tenders and minor league signees. Melvin & Co. leaned on Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson and Mike Fiers in the rotation down the stretch, while emerging stars like Matt Chapman and Matt Olson anchored a lineup that became one of the league’s best.

Beyond Manager of the Year honors, Snitker and Melvin were each rewarded with new contracts following their strong seasons. Atlanta signed Snitker to a two-year extension with an option for the 2021 season, while Melvin’s contract is now guaranteed through 2021.

Ronald Acuna, Shohei Ohtani Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

By Jeff Todd | November 12, 2018 at 5:54pm CDT

Precocious Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna has slugged his way to a National League Rookie of the Year Award, while two-way Angels star Shohei Ohtani took the top honors in the American League. While there were strong alternatives in both cases, these two players were the runaway favorites of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters. Juan Soto of the Nationals and Miguel Andujar of the Yankees were the respective runners up.

The 20-year-old Acuna burst onto the scene in 2018, launching 26 home runs and swiping 16 bags in 486 trips to the plate. He ended the season with a stellar .293/.366/.552 batting line. Already viewed as one of the game’s most exciting talents entering the 2018 campaign, Acuna now seems poised to take his place among the very best players in the majors.

It seemed at one point as if Juan Soto — who is even younger than Acuna — would run away with things in the NL. But Acuna went on a tear to end the season, helping lead his club to a stunning NL East title. Both of those players appear likely to clash in thrilling fashion well into the future in the division. (Things will presumably remain friendly, as the two seem to have hit it off on tour in Japan.) And it’ll also be fascinating to watch them each step into the box against third-place finisher Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, who had an exceptional debut season from the mound.

The trio of AL finalists was rather an exciting one as well. Ohtani, 24, staked out a position as the most fascinating baseball player on the planet by turning in high-end performances from the mound and the batter’s box. Primarily lauded for his promise as a hurler, Ohtani exceeded expectations with ten starts of 3.31 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. While his time on the bump was curtailed by a UCL surgery that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, Ohtani proved stunningly productive with the bat as well. Though he benefited from platoon usage, and was limited to DH usage, Ohtani actually bested Acuna and Soto in wRC+ (152 vs. 143 and 146, respectivey).

Andujar was the clear number two in the minds of voters, taking all of the five first-place votes that did not go to Ohtani. The 23-year-old’s output wasn’t quite as eye-popping as those of the others discussed in this post, but he did it over a full season. Andujar ended up popping 27 long balls with a .297/.328/.527 slash in 606 plate appearances, though his glovework did not receive glowing reviews. Unless things are shaken up by trade, he’ll presumably pair with fellow Yankees infielder and third-place AL ROY finisher Gleyber Torres for years to come.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Braves Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect