Latest On Shohei Ohtani’s Pitching Rehab
Shohei Ohtani pitched off a mound for the first time this spring today, as noted by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The bullpen session consisted of 14 throws, all of which were fastballs. Ohtani’s velocity sat 92-94 mph, which is well below his usual mid-90s velocity but not surprising for a pitcher who is still several months away from pitching in a big league game.
The news that Ohtani has resumed throwing and that he largely looked good doing so is surely heartening for Dodgers fans, but his timeline for a return to the mound remains unchanged. The club’s plan appears to be for Ohtani to join the club’s rotation at some point in May, with a five-man rotation set to be used by the Dodgers until then. As relayed by Ardaya, manager Dave Roberts indicated that Ohtani could resume facing live hitters before the club flies out to Tokyo for an early start to the regular season against the Cubs next month.
While the early returns of Ohtani’s rehab process are encouraging, plenty of questions remain between now and Ohtani’s first official pitching appearance in a Dodgers uniform. Ohtani’s rehab process as a pitcher will have to be balanced against his duties as the Dodgers’ everyday DH, creating a unique conundrum for the Dodgers to try and work through. The Angels dealt with a similar problem when Ohtani attempted to resume pitching in 2020 following Tommy John surgery, and that ended disastrously as he recorded just five outs and turned in his only below-average season as a big league hitter.
That said, it appears the Dodgers aren’t likely to send Ohtani on a rehab assignment before he makes his return to pitching. While rehab assignments are customary for pitchers coming off major surgeries, Ardaya notes that the club has had success returning Clayton Kershaw to the big league mound without a rehab assignment in the past after lengthy stays on the injured list, and he relays that pitching coach Mark Prior emphasized that rehabbing and hitting at the same time “seemed to turn out pretty well” for the reigning NL MVP last year. As an alternative to a rehab assignment, the plan seems to be for the Dodgers to hold simulated games for Ohtani before the Dodgers’ regularly scheduled game for that day begins, allowing him to face live hitters in the form of either players from the big league bench or minor league hitters.
Ohtani and the Dodgers will be looking to strike this balance all while Ohtani looks to put offseason surgery behind him. Ohtani was injured sliding into second base during Game Two of the World Series last year and ultimately ended up going under the knife to repair a torn labrum after dislocating his shoulder on that aforementioned slide. Former Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger famously struggled to return to form as a hitter after a similar injury, and Ardaya notes Ohtani has admitted that even as camp opens up he’s still dealing with a somewhat limited range of motion in his shoulder. Still, there’s a month left until the Dodgers begin the regular season in Tokyo, so Ohtani still has plenty of time to get his swing into a good place even as he balances that with rehabbing as a pitcher.
Ohtani wasn’t the only player in Dodgers camp to receive a notable injury update today. as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, veteran first baseman Freddie Freeman told reporters he was “almost a full player” at this point in his rehab process after undergoing offseason ankle surgery. Freeman has resumed doing everything but running at this point, and while he’s not expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training games later this month Freeman emphasized that he remains on track to start the season in the lineup for the Dodgers in Japan.
Brewers Prospect Josh Knoth Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
The Brewers revealed tough news for fans in Milwaukee today, as Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel revealed today that right-handed pitching prospect Josh Knoth has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2025 season.
Knoth, 19, was selected in the first round (#33 overall) by the Brewers in the 2023 draft out of high school and made his pro debut with the club’s Single-A affiliate last year. Despite a somewhat pedestrian 4.48 ERA, Knoth struck out an impressive 26.7% of opponents in his age-18 season but was held back by an 11.1% walk rate. Knoth’s solid strikeout rate and youth were enough to make him the #16 ranked prospect in the Brewers system according to Baseball America. The right-hander has a solid fastball that tops out at 96 mph and two plus secondaries in the form of a curveball and a slider, though BA writes that his changeup is somewhat lackluster and his control comes and goes.
The righty missed time late last year due to elbow soreness, making only 21 starts and pitching just 84 1/3 innings, so the surgery isn’t necessarily a surprise. Even so, it’s a disappointing development for the Brewers given Knoth’s mid-rotation potential. It would’ve been something of a shock to see the youngster make his big league debut with the club this year, but even reaching the Double-A level by the end of the 2025 season would’ve put him on the map for a possible debut with the Brewers in 2026.
That sort of timeline for Knoth reaching the majors appears to be all but impossible now, as rehab will essentially push Knoth’s develop timeline back an entire year. Fortunately, however, Knoth is young even by the standard of a recently-drafted high school prospect given that he was just 17 years old on draft day and won’t turn 20 until August. If Knoth manages to return from Tommy John surgery unimpeded in 2026 and move aggressively up the minor league ladder, he should still have the chance to make it to the majors in his early twenties.
Even with Knoth sidelined for 2025, the Brewers’ pitching development looks strong. Robert Gasser flashed exciting stuff in his debut for the club last year, and while he’s currently on the 60-day IL rehabbing from Tommy John surgery the southpaw figures to return and impact the big league club at some point later this year. Perhaps more excitingly, right-hander Jacob Misiorowski is a consensus top-100 prospect who reached Triple-A last year and appears likely to make his big league debut with the Brewers at some point in 2025.
Red Sox Undecided On Infield Alignment Following Alex Bregman Deal
The Red Sox officially inked star infielder Alex Bregman to a three-year deal earlier today, and the assumption to this point has been that Bregman would slide into the club’s vacancy at second base. While Bregman played third base throughout his time in Houston and won a Gold Glove award for his work at the position last year, he made clear at the outset of the offseason that he was willing to slide over to the keystone if his new team so desired. Incumbent star Rafael Devers is entrenched at third base in Boston and has made his preference to remain at the position plain over the years, so Devers at third and Bregman at second seemed like the cleanest way for the club to sort out its positional conundrum. It may not wind up being that simple, however. As relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Red Sox manager Alex Cora was noncommittal about the club’s infield plans.
“We’ll talk about that later on,” Cora said when asked where Bregman will play, as relayed by Cotillo. “Right now, there’s a lot of stuff going on as far as we’re going to be roster-wise. We’ll make the decision when we have to make it… He’s a Gold Glove third baseman. He hasn’t played second base in the big leagues. I do believe he can be a Gold Glove second baseman, too. There’s other stuff that comes into play as far as roster construction and what’s better for the team and what can be the best lineup.”
Cotillo reports that Cora’s hesitance to name a defined position for Bregman reflects real uncertainty within the organization about how the club’s lineup with shake out from a positional standpoint. According to Cotillo, the club is making an effort to keep a path open for top infield prospect Kristian Campbell to break camp with the team on Opening Day. Campbell has experience at shortstop and in the outfield but has long seemed best suited for second base with the Red Sox. Cotillo suggests that Bregman could see time at both second and third base if Campbell makes the club’s roster, while Campbell himself could see time in left field in addition to his work at the keystone with Jarren Duran moving over to center. Devers, presumably, would slide over to DH on days where Bregman is at the hot corner.
If Campbell is ready for his big league debut, it’s hard to argue with the logic in keeping an open mind about how to make the pieces fit in the lineup. While Devers has been adamant about his desire to continue playing the field, Bregman and Campbell would likely be a more robust pairing defensively than Devers and Bregman given Bregman’s lack of experience at second base and Devers’s lackluster defensive numbers. It’s also not hard to imagine Campbell providing more on offense than the players who could have their playing time impacted by the decision to roster both Campbell and Bregman. In particular, Cotillo notes that Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela could be at risk of having their playing time reduced or even losing their roster spots if Campbell makes the team out of camp.
Speculatively speaking, it would be possible to get both players in the lineup on occasion even with Campbell in the fold. If the club were to play Bregman at third base with Campbell at second against left-handed pitching, that would likely push Devers to DH and Yoshida to the bench. That would allow Duran to play left field with Rafaela’s superior glove in center. Against right-handers, Devers could reclaim the hot corner with Bregman moving to the key stone, Campbell heading to left field, and Duran sliding over to center with Rafaela on the bench. Yoshida is a career .239/.318/.351 hitter against southpaws and playing him in a strict platoon role may be Boston’s preference regardless of how the decision regarding Campbell shakes out.
The righty-swinging Rafaela has reverse splits to this point in his young career, which would make him an imperfect choice to start primarily against lefty pitchers, but his true calling card is his defense and a combination of Duran, Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder on the grass against southpaws would give the Red Sox an excellent defensive outfield. With that being said, if the Red Sox hope to develop Rafaela into a true everyday player at some point rather than the super utility role he currently finds himself in, the club may prefer to get him everyday playing time in Triple-A rather than sporadic reps in the majors. It’s also worth noting that carrying all three of Campbell, Rafaela, and Yoshida on the roster would effectively shrink the club’s bench, leaving just one roster spot available for Romy Gonzalez, David Hamilton, and Vaughn Grissom.
Of course, all of this is predicated on Campbell hitting well enough this spring to earn a spot on the club’s Opening Day roster. Should Campbell look over-matched this spring, it seems likely the club would simply allow him more time to develop at Triple-A and use Bregman at second base on a regular basis until and unless Campbell earns a promotion to the majors. Even if Campbell can’t crack the big league roster on Opening Day, however, it seems likely he’ll get his first taste of the majors at some point this year, and this latest reporting provides a meaningful glimpse at what the club’s thought process could look like if Campbell forces his way onto the roster later in the year after not making the cut this spring.
Poll: Should The Cardinals Trade A Starter?
The Cardinals’ offseason has been defined by their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The club allowed key players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge to head into free agency this winter and did nothing to replace them as they focused on cutting payroll and starting a youth movement at the major league level. The club seemingly wanted to pair that with trades of some of its most expensive veteran players, but Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both quickly made it clear that they weren’t interested in waiving their no-trade clauses.
That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.
There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)
In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.
On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.
It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.
With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:
How should the Cardinals proceed?
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Trade a starting pitcher to jump start the youth movement. 60% (2,367)
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Keep the roster intact for the start of the season and reassess at the trade deadline. 40% (1,570)
Total votes: 3,937
The Opener: Full-Squad Workouts, Lowe, MiLB Deals
With Spring Training now underway for all 30 teams, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Full-squad workouts begin:
With pitchers and catchers all around the league having already reported to camp, the Cubs are set to kick off the first full-squad workout of the year today as the club’s position players report to camp. That’s followed by the first full-squad workout of the spring for the Dodgers this weekend. While the report date for position players isn’t attached to a notable roster change like the return of the 60-day injured list, it still gives fans a first chance to get a glimpse of the hitters their club added during the offseason. In Chicago’s case, the highlight is star outfielder Kyle Tucker. L.A. doesn’t have a new star hitter on that level, but Hyeseong Kim and Michael Conforto are both notable offseason additions.
2. Lowe arbitration hearing:
The final arbitration hearing of the winter is set to begin today, with new Nationals first baseman Nathaniel Lowe requesting an $11.1MM salary while the Nats counter with $10.3MM. A decision figures to be announced over the weekend, and that decision will serve as a tiebreaker between teams and players for this cycle of arbitration after an even 4-4 split between the sides across the first eight decisions. Pirates right-handers Johan Oviedo and Dennis Santana, Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan, and Yankees righty Mark Leiter Jr. all lost their cases against their clubs, while Angels infielder Luis Rengifo, Angels outfielder Mickey Moniak, Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar, and Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante all emerged victorious from their own hearings.
3. Veterans accepting minor league deals?
With camp underway for all 30 clubs, some veterans still lingering in free agency have begun to accept minor league deals in order to get into camp with a club and get to work. Slugger Joey Gallo signed a non-roster deal with the White Sox yesterday, while veteran reliever Luis Garcia reportedly signed a minor league pact with the Dodgers. Those veterans, as Article XX(B) free agents under the current collective bargaining agreements, will have uniform opt-out opportunities headed into Opening Day and throughout the first half of the season. That makes it a bit easier for players in their situation to find big league playing time even after accepting a minor league deal. It’s likely we’ll see some of the other lingering free agents on the market begin to follow suit in the coming days, though there are still a handful of players who’ll surely command major league contracts as well (e.g. David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney). You can check out an up-to-date list of the remaining unsigned free agents here.
Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?
The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.
Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:
Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.
In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.
Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.
Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.
Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.
However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.
Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.
For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.
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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.
Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:
Who's the best starting pitcher still on the market?
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Jose Quintana 38% (1,481)
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Spencer Turnbull 23% (888)
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Andrew Heaney 21% (816)
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Kyle Gibson 15% (587)
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Other (Specify In Comments) 4% (152)
Total votes: 3,924
The Opener: Spring Training, Arenado, Free Agency
After a busy day where the winter’s best remaining hitter and pitcher came off the board in free agency, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Pitchers and catchers continue reporting:
After today, all 30 clubs’ pitchers and catchers will have reported for their first official team workout. The Guardians, Rockies, Brewers, and Mariners in the Cactus League as well as the Grapefruit League’s Orioles, Astros, Twins, and Blue Jays are all set to kick things off today. Those teams all unlock access to the 60-day injured list today, meaning any of them with a player suffering a long-term injury will have more 40-man roster flexibility going forward. Team officials figure to be in camp answering questions from the media as well, and as always it’s possible that previously-unreported injuries could crop up as players trickle into camp.
2. What’s next for Arenado?
The trade market for Nolan Arenado has long appeared unlikely to develop until after top infield free agent Alex Bregman signed somewhere. He finally did so last night, however, agreeing to a three-year deal with the Red Sox worth $40MM annually before factoring in deferred money. That’s bad news for Arenado and the Cardinals, as Boston was widely expected to pivot toward Arenado in the event that they came up short in the Bregman bidding. The other failed suitors for Bregman seem to be unlikely destinations. Arenado already blocked a trade to the Astros. A trade between the Cardinals and their archrival Cubs is all but impossible to imagine, and it’s unclear if Arenado would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to approve a deal to the Tigers or the Blue Jays.
3. Lower levels of free agency moving:
While most of the attention was on the major deals signed by Bregman and Nick Pivetta yesterday, they were just two of the seven players who signed big league free agent deals yesterday. All corners of the market have begun to move, with relievers like right-hander John Brebbia, starters like righty Cal Quantrill, and position players like center fielder Michael A. Taylor all agreeing to deals. A number of noteworthy free agents still remain on the market, including Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Verdugo, Paul DeJong, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, and David Robertson. Who will be the next one to land a contract?
Poll: Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?
The Cubs have made a number of moves to push in towards a return to the postseason in 2025 after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff game since the club’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers back in 2017. After decent showings the past two seasons, both of which saw the club finish with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten more aggressive in their efforts to improve. While the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation mix, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, as well as Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all more or less par-for-the-course moves for the Cubs in recent years, they made a major splash by swinging a trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.
The acquisition cost was steep, as they gave up top third base prospect Cam Smith as well as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young right-hander Hayden Wesneski, but the acquisition of Tucker was a major upgrade for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to provide the Cubs with an impact star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season, however, and while youngsters Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are waiting in the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it would be an incredibly tall order to expect either youngster to become the sort of to player Tucker has fashioned himself into.
With the club having already given up substantial assets to just land one year of Tucker, the minds of many fans immediately go to an extension. It’s far from uncommon for star players traded just before their final year of team control to promptly extend their stay with that new club, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the most notable star position players to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being said, it doesn’t always work out that way as the Yankees found out when they gave up a massive haul for one year of Juan Soto‘s services last winter only to watch him depart in free agency back in December.
Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal won’t be an even remotely realistic target for Tucker, who will crucially head into free agency three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that massive contract figures to raise the bar at least somewhat on the price tag for Tucker’s services. After all, both lefty-swinging right fielders are among the most valuable outfielders in the game over the past few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR since the start of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 figure, but that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 campaign due to a shin injury. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate discipline, but the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in at least the same ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.
As previously mentioned, Soto’s youth and stronger overall offensive contributions mean his deal will greatly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly reasonable to think that Tucker could exceed the $330MM guarantee Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season and even Aaron Judge‘s $360MM guarantee from the 2022-23 offseason. With major market clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a hole in the outfield next winter, it’s not hard to imagine the bidding for Tucker’s services surpassing $350MM or even reaching $400MM so long as he’s healthy and as productive as expected this year. Signing a player to that sort of deal would be completely unprecedented for the Cubs, who have never signed a player for more than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward prior to the 2016 season, and it seems unlikely that a Tucker extension would come at much of a discount.
While doubling the franchise’s record contract would be a bold move, its one the Cubs should be able to afford. Despite playing in one of the league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to treat the first luxury tax threshold as something of a hard cap in recent years. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource projects the club to have just $136MM in guaranteed contracts on the roster. That’s before likely raises for arbitration-eligible players like Justin Steele and a decision on Shota Imanaga‘s deal that seems likely to raise the southpaw’s salary, but there should at least theoretically be plenty of room in the budget for a Tucker extension even after considering those factors should the Cubs wish to work one out.
There’s plenty of reasons to wonder if the Cubs would really have the appetite to sign Tucker to a massive contract, however. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs appear to be acting quite cautiously when it comes to guaranteed contracts that extend beyond the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2026. At the moment, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the only two players the club has guaranteed money to beyond the 2026 campaign. Even that ignores the possibility that Imanaga is allowed to opt out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which will depend on whether or not the Cubs are willing to pick up a series of club options that would extend his stay with the club through the end of the 2028 campaign.
One other potential wrinkle in the situation is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the past month, and while they’re generally viewed as only interested in adding Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger last winter), it’s at least possible that the club signing Bregman to a deal that guarantees upwards of $30MM annually could leave them uninterested in adding another high-dollar contract like the one Tucker figures to command.
What do MLBTR readers think about the situation? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension before he reaches free agency in November? Or will Tucker follow in the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?
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No, Tucker will test free agency. 71% (6,260)
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Yes, they'll work out an extension. 29% (2,609)
Total votes: 8,869
The Opener: Pitchers And Catchers, Cardinals, Kershaw
As Spring Training gets underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Pitchers and catchers continue reporting:
The Cubs and Dodgers have already gotten started on Spring Training ahead of next month’s early start to the regular season in Tokyo, but the rest of the league is beginning to catch up to them today with many clubs hosting their first workout for pitchers and catchers. In Florida’s Grapefruit League, the Braves, Red Sox, Tigers, Marlins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals, Rays, and Nationals all host their first official workout today. The same is true for the Diamondbacks, Athletics, White Sox, Reds, Royals, Angels, Padres, Giants, and Rangers in Arizona’s Cactus League. With the start of Spring Training, these clubs also unlock access to the 60-day injured list for roster maneuvering purposes, while club officials figure to offer health updates on players as they begin to trickle into camp.
2. Cardinals arbitration results expected:
As noted by the Associated Press, utilityman Brendan Donovan went to an arbitration hearing against the Cardinals yesterday, asking for a $3.3MM salary while St. Louis countered at $2.85MM. Decisions on the cases of both Donovan and his teammate Lars Nootbaar, who went to a hearing against the Cards last week, are expected today. Nootbaar filed at $2.95MM and the club countered with $2.45MM. Teams have won a slim majority of cases to this point in the process, taking home victories against right-handers Johan Oviedo, Dennis Santana, and Mark Leiter Jr. while outfielder Mickey Moniak and infielder Luis Rengifo emerged victorious. Nathaniel Lowe of the Nationals and Andre Pallante of the Cardinals are expected to go to hearings later this week, though it’s theoretically possible an agreement could be reached before then to avoid arbitration.
3. Kershaw move to be made official?
The Dodgers finally reached their long-awaited agreement with future Hall of Famer and franchise face Clayton Kershaw yesterday, though the deal is pending a physical. Notably, Kershaw was already in camp with the club yesterday, which suggests that the southpaw’s physical could be squared away in relatively short order to make way for an official announcement of the deal. Terms of the agreement should come to light soon. The physical isn’t a completely meaningless step in the process given the soon-to-be 37-year-old’s injury history, but considering the longstanding expectation of a deal, it’s reasonable to expect the sides will work out some sort of agreement regardless of what the physical may reveal.
Poll: Do The Braves Need Another Starter?
The Braves struggled through a difficult season on offense last year amid another lost season for superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. and a number of down seasons all around the lineup. The club still managed to win 89 games and make it to the postseason on the back of its excellent rotation, however. Headed into 2025, that rotation has lost two key pieces: southpaw Max Fried and right-hander Charlie Morton.
Both departing pitchers had down seasons relative to their career norms last year, with Fried’s 3.25 ERA being a bit of a step back from his ace-level production of previous years while Morton clocked in right around league average. Even so, both were key pieces of the club’s rotation last year from a volume perspective. The pair combined for 59 starts and 339 2/3 innings in 2024, and they joined Chris Sale as the only three pitchers in the Atlanta rotation last year to throw even 140 innings.
That led to plenty of speculation early in the offseason that the club would be in the market for starting pitching help, with at least a back-of-the-rotation veteran to help eat innings widely expected to be a priority. That didn’t end up coming to fruition, however, despite a reported pursuit of Jeff Hoffman as a potential convert to the rotation that ultimately fell apart due to concern over Hoffman’s medicals. With Spring Training just over the horizon, the Braves have yet to make any sort of additions to their pitching staff with outfielder Jurickson Profar being the club’s only major free agent signing of the winter.
Even after losing one of the better pitchers in the sport in Fried, the club still has one of the highest-ceiling rotations in the majors. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sale leads the group coming off a season where he won the NL Triple Crown award and got his career back onto a potential Hall of Fame track after struggling to stay healthy with the Red Sox in recent years. He eventually figures to pair at the top of the club’s rotation with hard-throwing righty Spencer Strider, who missed almost all of last season due to internal brace surgery but struck out an incredible 36.8% of opponents in 2023 en route to a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Reynaldo Lopez is the club’s number three starter on paper after posting a 1.99 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) last year in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020. Spencer Schwellenbach delivered solid mid-rotation production in 21 starts as a rookie last year with a 3.35 ERA in 123 2/3 innings of work.
It’s a front four that’s hard to argue with from a talent perspective, but it’s difficult to ignore the many health question marks at play here. Sale was nothing short of elite last year but combined for just 151 innings of work in the four years prior to 2024 and ended the season unable to pitch in Atlanta’s postseason run due to back issues. Strider, of course, is coming off elbow surgery and is not even expected to be ready for the start of the season. Lopez had previously last topped 66 innings back in 2019, while Schwellenbach pitched in relief during his college days and had never made more than 16 starts or thrown more than 65 innings in a season prior to last year, leaving questions about whether or not either can handle a full slate of 30+ starts in 2025.
All of that makes an innings-eating veteran addition seem like an option, to say nothing of how valuable a more reliable mid-rotation arm like Nick Pivetta could be for the club. Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, and Kyle Gibson are among a number of noteworthy starting pitching options still available in free agency, while the trade market holds options such as Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery who could be had for minimal return outside of salary relief. Pivetta and Gibson in particular would immediately become the most reliable source of innings on Atlanta’s entire staff if signed, but any of them would raise the floor of a volatile rotation group.
With that being said, it’s worth noting that the club is deep in potential starting options beyond their top four, despite none of those players being proven at the big league level at this point. Grant Holmes, 29 next month, was excellent for the Braves in a swing role last year as a rookie. Ian Anderson was one of the club’s best arms during their 2021 World Series run and won’t turn 27 until May, though he didn’t pitch in the majors in either of the last two seasons. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are both entering their age-22 and -23 campaigns respectively and have pedigree as former top-100 prospects who could easily break out with more reps at the big league level, Bryce Elder was an All-Star in 2023 despite a rough 2024 season, and even more depth is available in the form of Dylan Dodd and Davis Daniel.
That’s a list of potential fifth starter options that’s seven names deep, including two players with successful seasons as wire-to-wire MLB starting pitchers under their belts, a player who produced in a limited rotation look last year, and two well-regarded young arms who have been ranked among the organization’s best prospects in recent years. Most clubs would love to have that sort of depth in competition for the final spot in their rotation, but given the history of health issues and lack of reliable innings that permeate the rest of Atlanta’s rotation, even that deep cache of arms might not be enough to let the Braves keep up with the Phillies and Mets in a highly competitive NL East division.
There’s also the financial component to consider. RosterResource puts the club’s competitive balance tax number a bit above $230MM, just over $10MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. While they have some willingness to pay the tax again this year, they may not consider the available arms enough of an upgrade over their internal options to justify going beyond the line right now.
What do MLBTR readers think? Does Atlanta have enough internal pitching options to make it through the season, or at least until trade season resumes over the summer? Have your say in the poll below:
Do the Braves need another starter?
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Yes, add another starter on an MLB deal before Opening Day. 67% (3,686)
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No, stick with internal options and re-evaluate over the summer. 33% (1,853)
Total votes: 5,539