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The Opener: Winter Meetings, Soto Fallout, Outfield Market

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On the heels of Juan Soto signing the biggest contract in the history of professional sports last night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Winter Meetings officially begin:

Players, agents, and executives alike arrived in Dallas last night for this year’s Winter Meetings, which officially kick off today and run through this coming Thursday. There was plenty of activity over the weekend, even aside from Soto, as the Giants landed shortstop Willy Adames on a franchise-record pact while the Dodgers and Orioles both swung two deals a piece. L.A. reunited with veteran reliever Blake Treinen and agreed to a one-year pact with outfielder Michael Conforto, while Baltimore agreed to a one-year deal with Gary Sanchez to serve as Adley Rutschman’s back-up behind the plate and added Tyler O’Neill to their outfield mix on a three-year agreement. That was quite a flurry of activity in the weekend leading up to this week’s meetings, and with Soto now off the table the hot stove is widely expected to burn even more brightly in the coming days.

2. Soto suitors decide what’s next:

With Soto now off the board, all five of his suitors will now have to redirect their attention elsewhere going forward. The Mets, of course, have now landed the crown jewel of their offseason but still have plenty of room to spend and figure to target corner infield help to either reunite with or replace slugging first baseman Pete Alonso in their lineup. They’ve also got a wide open vacancy in their rotation, even after adding Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to the group earlier this winter. The club is reportedly in on a number of the better starters remaining on the free agent market, including Sean Manaea and Jack Flaherty.

Even more interesting than the Mets’ next steps after signing Soto, however, is what’s next for the other Soto suitors. The Yankees will now have to find a way to replace Soto’s production after falling short in their attempt to retain the superstar, and figure to be aggressive in upgrading the corner infield, rotation, and outfield as they hope to field a competitive team without their second superstar slugger. The Red Sox and Blue Jays, meanwhile, will now have to figure out how to jump-start their attempted returns to contention without adding Soto’s otherworldly bat to the lineup. Best positioned to rebound from their failed pursuit of Soto by far is the Dodgers, who were seemingly less invested in his market throughout the process and have already signed a handful of free agents headlined by Blake Snell this winter.

3. What’s next on the outfield market?

No corner of the winter’s market was more clearly held up by Soto’s decision than the outfield market, where Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander are the best remaining bats now that Soto has signed. The market for both sluggers figures to ramp up quickly in the coming days, and all four Soto suitors who missed out have been connected to one or both sluggers already. The Dodgers and Hernandez have reported mutual interest in a reunion after the slugger had a career year in L.A. this past season, while the Blue Jays appear to have the most interest in Santander of the four failed Soto bidders. One other factor in the outfield market worth considering is Cody Bellinger, who the Cubs have made clear they hope to trade this winter and has already been connected to the Yankees.

Braves Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax In 2025

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The Braves have been relatively quiet to this point in the winter, having done little to this point beyond trade Jorge Soler to the Angels at the start of the offseason. That’s created the impression of a club being cautious about its payroll situation this winter, when they stand at risk of surpassing the luxury tax for a third consecutive year, which would come with stiff tax penalties and cause the first-round pick in the 2026 draft to move back ten spots. Despite the club’s slow start to the winter, however, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including David O’Brien of The Athletic) that the club is willing to surpass the luxury tax for a third consecutive year to address the club’s needs this winter.

According to O’Brien, the club’s initial plans for the offseason were scuttled when they received worrisome medical updates regarding stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider as well as reliever Joe Jimenez. Neither Acuna nor Strider is expected to be ready for Opening Day as things stand, and O’Brien adds that both could be out of action “well into May.” That news, in conjunction with the loss of Jimenez to knee surgery for most or all of the 2025 campaign, left the Braves to look for ways to free up salary. Per O’Brien, the club likely wouldn’t have restructured the contracts of Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer nor declined the club option of veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud had these injuries not put additional pressure on the club to pursue help in the outfield, rotation, and bullpen.

Of those three areas of the roster, the outfield appears to be the most pressing for the club to address. O’Brien notes that the Braves may prefer to be extra cautious with Acuna next season in the aftermath of his second torn ACL in four seasons, particularly after he struggled (at least relative to his own elite standards) in 2022 after returning to the lineup as soon as possible. That’s led the club to pursue outfield help thanks to the relatively lackluster in-house alternatives of Eli White, Luke Williams and Carlos D. Rodriguez as options to pair with Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris II on the grass until Acuna returns.

On the pitching side of things, however, the Braves seemingly have more comfort with their internal options. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale figures to be joined by Lopez and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the club’s Opening Day rotation for 2025, and the club has a large number of possible internal options to handle the other two rotation spots including Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Ian Anderson among others, but Anthopoulos suggested one surprising internal candidate for a rotation job as well: right-hander Grant Holmes.

The 28-year-old made his MLB debut for the Braves this past season and excelled in a swing role for the club with a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work split between seven starts and 19 relief appearances. Given Holmes’s apparent comfort moving between the rotation and bullpen, he could prove to be a sensible choice to fill in for Strider in the club’s Opening Day rotation before moving into a relief role once the hard-throwing righty returns to action. Similarly, O’Brien notes that Anthopoulos expressed interest in using right-hander Daysbel Hernandez in a set-up role in 2025 to help make up for the loss of Jimenez. Hernandez pitched just 18 innings for Atlanta in 2024 across 16 appearances, but he made a strong impression in that limited time with a 2.50 ERA, a 35.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.11 FIP.

One other option to help make up for the loss of Jimenez that O’Brien notes could be on the table is a reunion with southpaw A.J. Minter. While O’Brien suggests that the club “might” re-sign Minter this winter, one potential wrinkle in bringing Minter back to help ease the loss of Jimenez is the fact that the lefty might also miss Opening Day following surgery. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery back in August, and O’Brien notes that it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch early in the 2025 season.

Even setting aside the potential implications Minter’s health could have on Atlanta’s interest in a reunion, his injury woes lingering into the season could substantially impact earning power this winter, as well. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal for Minter earlier this offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but that prediction came with the presumption that the southpaw would be ready for Opening Day in 2025. If Minter’s rehab from surgery leaves Opening Day in question for the lefty throughout the offseason, it would hardly be a surprise to see the 31-year-old settle for a one-year deal this winter in hopes of proving himself healthy and having a better chance at a more lucrative multi-year deal next year.

Giants Receiving “Strong” Interest In Camilo Doval

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While the Giants aren’t actively shopping hard-throwing righty Camilo Doval this winter, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier today that the club is receiving “strong” interest in his services around the league.

Doval, 27, is an intriguing trade candidate even after an undeniably lackluster 2024 campaign. The right-hander was an All-Star in 2023 who led the National League in saves and turned in his second consecutive excellent season as the closer in San Francisco, but 2024 saw him struggle with uneven performance throughout the year. That led the Giants to option him to the minors for a brief period in August, and upon his return to the majors he was replaced by right-hander Ryan Walker in the closer role. Overall, Doval pitched to a 4.88 ERA with a 3.71 FIP this past year with a strong 28.8% strikeout rate that was overshadowed by a massive 14.4% walk rate.

Difficult as 2024 was for Doval, it’s hard to deny the right-hander’s talent. Entering this year, Doval’s career numbers were nothing short of elite. In 162 1/3 innings of work across three seasons with the Giants prior to 2024, the right-hander dominated to the tune of a 2.77 ERA with a 2.97 FIP while striking out 30.2% of opponents, walking 9.6%, and racking up 69 saves. He combines his high strikeout rates with an excellent ability to induce contact on the ground as well, as he’s posted a 55.2% grounder rate in his career that ranks fourth among all relievers with at least 200 innings over the past four seasons. Even in his down season this year, Doval generated grounders at an incredible 60% clip that was good for seventh in the sport this year among qualified relief arms.

While the wide chasm between Doval’s ERA and FIP along with an elevated .333 BABIP and a below-average 68.2% strand rate might suggest Doval was simply unlucky in 2024, there are plenty of red flags that figure to give potential suitors pause. That walk rate is surely particularly concerning to interested clubs, seeing as it was the second-highest figure among qualified relievers last year. Only southpaw Aroldis Chapman walked batters at a higher clip than Doval, and Chapman’s 37% strikeout rate last year dwarfs even Doval’s best figures in his career. As tantalizing as the upside surely is for a hard-throwing ground ball specialist like Doval who has three years of team control remaining, his concerning 2024 campaign could make rival clubs cautious about paying a premium for the righty.

If the Giants believe Doval is likely to bounce back to his previous form in 2025, it would be a bold choice for the club to move him for what would surely be a lower price than he could garner following a dominant season—or even half of one, should San Francisco be in position to sell at this summer’s trade deadline. Given Doval’s significant upside, the club might be better off exploring trades involving other players like LaMonte Wade Jr. or Mike Yastrzemski, both of whom are rumored to be available as well.

With that being said, Slusser suggests that the club figures to listen on “significant offers” that would address another area of need thanks in part to the club’s impressive stock of high leverage arms. Aside from Doval and Walker, the club also figures to employ Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers, and Erik Miller in the late innings. Jordan Hicks was also used as a late inning option down the stretch this year, but he appears likely to be ticketed for the rotation after an up-and-down season that saw him make 20 starts and enjoy some success in the role during the first half.

Mariners Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Luis Castillo

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The Mariners have “expressed willingness” to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Luis Castillo, according to a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The report comes on the heels of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto referring to dealing from the rotation as the club’s “Plan Z” for the offseason back in October. Indeed, it seems as though the club still isn’t necessarily enthused about the idea of parting with one of its starters, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported this evening that while “anything is possible,” the club’s “public and private” stance entering the Winter Meetings is that they don’t want to trade from their rotation.

Even so, that the club is at least somewhat open to offers on Castillo is fairly notable. The right-hander, 32 next week, has three more guaranteed years on the extension he signed with the Mariners prior to the 2023 season. He’ll earn a $24.15MM salary each year from 2025 to 2027, and the contract also includes a possible option for the 2028 season. If Castillo misses more than 130 days due to a UCL procedure in 2025-2027, the contract includes a $5MM team option for the 2028 campaign. Otherwise, the contract includes a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that vests if Castillo throws at 180 innings during the 2027 season and receives confirmation from an independent physician after the season that he hasn’t suffered an injury that’d require him to begin the following year on the injured list.

In short, that somewhat complex deal guarantees Castillo $72.45MM over the next three seasons which could rise to $97.45MM over four years if his option vests. Notably, Castillo’s contract also included a full no-trade clause for the first three years of the deal that will remain in place through the end of the 2025 season, meaning the righty would have to approve of any trade he’s involved in. It’s unclear whether Castillo would be willing to entertain a trade out of Seattle or what his preferences might be, and it’s possible that the right-hander’s no-trade clause could render any trade talks moot if he’s unwilling to leave the Mariners.

Should Castillo and the Mariners both be open to a trade, however, it’s easy to see why he might be of interest to rival clubs. The righty’s $72.45MM guarantee over the next three years isn’t much more than what left-hander Yusei Kikuchi received from the Angels this winter, and Castillo compares quite well to the veteran lefty. Not only is he a year and a half younger than Kikuchi, but the right-hander has also roundly outperformed him on the field. Kikuchi’s pitched to a 3.96 ERA with a 3.78 FIP in 64 starts for the Astros and Blue Jays over the past two years, while Castillo has posted an excellent 3.43 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 74 starts since he first donned a Mariners uniform following the 2022 trade deadline. Given the ever-escalating prices on the starting pitching market and the hesitance many teams have shown engaging on pitchers encumbered by the Qualifying Offer, Castillo could be an attractive alternative to mid-market players like Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta who remain available in free agency.

That’s not to say there are no causes for concern in Castillo’s profile, of course. Castillo has lost nearly two ticks of velocity off his fastball since his peak with the Reds, and since arriving in Seattle his once-superb groundball rate has fallen off to a more pedestrian 39.1% over the past two years. His strikeout rate dipped similarly this year, settling in at just 24.3% in 2024. That left him as a more-or-less league average starter by both results and peripherals this year, as he pitched to a 3.64 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 3.79 SIERA in 175 1/3 innings of work. That said, Castillo helps to make up for his diminishing results with volume. He’s been something of a workhorse throughout his career, pitching at least 150 innings in every wire-to-wire, 162-game season of his career while averaging nearly 178 innings per season since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Overall, Castillo is a solid, durable arm who can slot cleanly into the front or middle of virtually any club’s rotation. That should make him an attractive piece in a hot market for starting pitching, and if Castillo is open to a trade it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mariners leverage their excellent rotation to help address other areas of the roster, even as they express reluctance to do so. After all, it’s worth noting that the club may face a budget crunch this winter that makes dealing Castillo and the $24.15MM he’s owed more palatable. While the Mariners are expected to enter 2025 with a payroll higher than their 2024 figure, that’s a point they’ve already reached: RosterResource projects Seattle for a $146MM payroll in 2025, and their year-end payroll this year was $144MM. Even with a small increase to payroll expected, that seemingly leaves very little room for the club to add salary.

That could pose a problem for the Mariners, given their reported interest in adding two infielders this winter. The club has a reported preference to add at the infield corners but has also been connected to middle infielders in the rumor mill, such as Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner and KBO infielder Hyeseong Kim. Cubs first baseman Cody Bellinger and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm are among the other players the Mariners have reportedly considered on the trade market, and the club also reportedly has interest in reuniting with either Justin Turner or Carlos Santana in free agency.

Of course, adding any of those players would cost money, and without a more substantial increase to the budget than expected it could be a tall order to add two of them. The Mariners would surely love to move on from the final year of either Mitch Haniger’s or Mitch Garver’s contract, but both sluggers have negative trade value coming off rough seasons. A Castillo trade, by contrast, likely could bring back a notable return while also clearing plenty of money off the club’s books to afford additional financial flexibility this winter to either dabble in free agency or take on salary on the trade market.

Astros Reportedly “Extensively” Shopping Ryan Pressly

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Astros right-hander Ryan Pressly is being “extensively shopped” on the trade market this winter, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That’s not the first indication this winter that Pressly could be available, as a report emerged last month indicating that Houston had at least internally discussed dealing the veteran righty, but it’s nonetheless notable that the club has seeming begun shopping him to rival clubs on the trade market.

At the outset of the offseason, GM Dana Brown was candid about the fact that his club’s budget for this winter was looking tight. While the club has emphasized its desire to remain in contention next year, Brown acknowledged the club might have to get “creative” in addressing holes on the roster. That was a potentially ominous sign for a club that saw longtime third baseman Alex Bregman elect free agency last month, leaving them with holes at both infield corners along with room to improve on the outfield grass and in the starting rotation. RosterResource notes that the club is already on the hook for a projected $215MM payroll in 2025, just $20MM below their Opening Day payroll in 2024 and just $29MM below their end-of-season payroll this past year.

With such a tight budget, it’s easy to imagine 2024 being the end of Bregman’s tenure in Houston. That’s not something the Astros have been willing to concede to this point, however, as they’ve reportedly made an offer to Bregman since he reached free agency. The specifics of that offer aren’t entirely clear, but subsequent reporting has suggested there may be a gap between the sides as the Astros hope to retain Bregman on a deal in the range of six years and $156MM while Bregman hopes to land a deal worth at least $200MM. The uncertainty surrounding Bregman has led the Astros to consider potential fallback options, including first baseman Christian Walker and infielder Jorge Polanco, though it’s not hard to imagine Walker himself commanding an AAV that could land outside of the Astros’ comfort zone.

Whether it be in service of a more robust pursuit of Bregman or to increase their flexibility in the event he signs elsewhere, it makes plenty of sense for the Astros to consider dealing Pressly this winter. The 36-year-old hurler is due $14MM in the final year of his contract following a solid but unspectacular 2024 season where he pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.10 FIP in a late-inning role after being bumped from the closer role by the club’s deal for Josh Hader last winter. Pressly’s results remained solid, but his peripheral numbers took a step back as his 23.8% strikeout rate was his worst since 2016 while his 7.4% walk rate was his worst in a 162-game season since 2018.

While Pressly is obviously still a quality reliever, he’d be unlikely to receive a $14MM AAV on the open market ahead of his age-36 season this winter. That lack of clear trade value could make a trade difficult for the Astros to pull off, and any trade talks figure to be further complicated by the fact that Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with ten years of service time and five consecutive years with his current club. That means Pressly would have to approve a trade in order to be moved, and there’s no guarantee that the Dallas native who has previously signed multiple contract extensions with the Astros would be interested in leaving Houston.

Those obstacles are significant, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pressly remain in an Astros uniform next year because of them. They certainly don’t necessarily mean that a deal is impossible, however. It’s at least feasible that Pressly could have interest in being traded to a club that would be willing to use him in the ninth-inning after he racked up 102 saves in 118 chances (86.4% conversion rate) across his four years in the role with Houston. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies are all among teams that could be in the market for help in the ninth inning this winter, and Nightengale suggests that Philadelphia could have particular interest in Pressly’s services.

Nightengale goes on to speculate that a deal involving Pressly and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm could make sense for both clubs if the Astros fail to land Bregman, though it’s worth noting that Bohm figures to have more value on the trade market than Pressly so a straight one-for-one swap seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Chicago is known to have interest in dealing Cody Bellinger and Houston has reportedly checked in on Bellinger this winter. That makes a swap involving Bellinger and Pressly at least a theoretical fit between the two sides, though it’s unclear if discussions between the Cubs and Astros about Bellinger even involved other names much less Pressly in particular.

Kyle Keller Re-Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Right-hander Kyle Keller has re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, MLBTR has learned. Keller’s new contract is a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for the 2026 season, though specific financial terms remain unclear.

Keller, 31, was an 18th-round pick by Miami back in 2015 and made his big league debut with the club back in 2019. He ultimately spent three years in the majors with the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates. He struggled through 46 1/3 big league innings during that time with a 5.83 ERA and 7.00 FIP. While he struck out opponents at a decent 22.4% clip, he was held back by an untenable 14.7% walk rate that severely limited his effectiveness at the big league level. Those struggles in the big leagues led Keller to look overseas for his next opportunity, and he eventually signed with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers for the 2022 season.

The right-hander wound up acting as a prominent late-inning arm for the club over his two seasons with them. After dominating the Western League for the Tigers’ affiliate almost immediately, he found himself promoted to the Central League rather quickly and didn’t look back with a 3.31 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work. Importantly, he showed far better command over his arsenal in NPB play with a fantastic 35.9% strikeout rate against a microscopic 3.9% walk rate during his first year in the Central League. His peripherals weren’t quite as stellar in his second season with the Tigers, as his 23.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate were more reminiscent of his time in the big leagues than anything else. That didn’t stop him from posting strong results, however, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work.

Those strong results earned Keller interest both in NPB and from MLB clubs last winter, and he ultimately settled on a third season in NPB as he landed with the Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal last winter. His 2024 season turned out to be the best of his NPB career so far as he dominated with a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings of work while flashing strong peripherals. Keller struck out an excellent 29.5% of opponents for the Giants last year, while his walk rate sat at a more manageable 10.4%. That combination of excellent results and solid peripherals backing the performance up was evidently enough convince the Giants to retain Keller for at least the 2025 season.

Given the recent MLB interest he’s received and his strong season last year, if Keller is able to turn in a similarly strong campaign at age-32 next year it wouldn’t be hard to imagine him exploring a return to stateside ball at some point in the future as other successful big league relievers like Robert Suarez have done in the past.

Red Sox Reportedly “Open” To Triston Casas Trade

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The Red Sox have made plain that their top priority this winter (except, perhaps, for their pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto) is improving their starting rotation. That’s led the club to be connected to a number of top free agent and trade candidates throughout the winter so far, ranging from Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in free agency to Garrett Crochet via the trade market. Earlier this winter, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated that the club had no interest in parting with young first baseman Triston Casas in trade this winter, praising him as a player with “40-home run potential” who he described himself as “excited” to have on the team.

While that infatuation with Casas’s skill set may be true, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported earlier today that the Red Sox have been “open” to including Casas in a trade that achieves their goal of adding a pitcher to the front of their rotation. What’s more, Speier goes on to report that one executive from a rival AL club noted that he Red Sox had offered Casas as the headliner in a package for one of his team’s pitchers. That openness to dealing Casas comes as something of a surprise given Breslow’s public comments last month but Speier cautions that while the club is “exploring all avenues” to improve this winter, including the possibility of a Casas trade, the Red Sox actually dealing the youngster remains unlikely given that they’d likely be selling low after a season where he appeared in just 63 games due to torn cartilage in his ribcage.

When healthy enough to take the field, Casas hit quite well for the Red Sox this year with a .241/.337/.462 slash line (119 wRC+) and 13 homers in 243 trips to the plate. With that being said, there were some red flags in his profile this year that may give interested clubs pause. Notably, he struck out at an elevated 31.7% clip this year that helped hold him back from reaching the incredible heights he flashed after the All-Star break in 2023, when he crushed the ball to the tune of a .317/.417/.617 slash line in a 211 plate appearance sample that nearly matches his shortened 2024 campaign. Given that tantalizing upside, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Red Sox would be hesitant to part with Casas following an injury-plagued season that raised questions about his strikeout rate.

To that end, deals involving Casas are far from the only type of trade the Red Sox have explored this winter. Speier notes that Boston has looked into trades with various clubs that come in several forms, with Casas, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and some of the club’s top prospects all being potential headliners for various deals the club has discussed this winter. Speier suggests that both top outfield prospect Roman Anthony and top second base prospect Kristian Campbell are considered “entirely off-limits” in trade talks, but that still leaves a number of exciting prospects in the Red Sox farm available in the right trade, potentially even including catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Marcelo Mayer.

The club has also, of course, explored free agency as they look for rotation upgrades. The club has been connected to top pitchers like Burnes and Fried throughout the winter, but they’ve also seemingly been involved at lower tiers of the pitching market as well in their search for arms. Robert Murray of FanSided reported yesterday that the Red Sox made a “serious push” for Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber before he re-signed in Cleveland, and Bieber reportedly turned down more money from other clubs in order to return to the only organization he’s known as a professional. Additionally, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported earlier today that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. Holmes landed in Queens as a starting pitcher after spending the majority of his big league career as a reliever, but Rosenthal and Sammon emphasized that it’s not clear whether Boston was among the clubs interested in Holmes as a starter or if they intended to use him out of the bullpen had they ultimately signed him.

That interest in Bieber (and Holmes, if they planned to put him in the rotation) suggests that the Red Sox could be willing to get creative to add pitching talent to their rotation, even as they appear focused on adding a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm. The Red Sox rotation certainly has room for multiple starters given that Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford seem to be the only hurlers locked into rotation spots next year, and pairing an ace-level pitcher like Burnes, Fried, or Crochet with an intriguing bounce-back option would be a good way for the club to raise the ceiling in their rotation substantially without needing to land two top-of-the-market pitchers. Max Scherzer and Tomoyuki Sugano are among the interesting one-year veteran options this winter who could have substantial upside, while Jeff Hoffman stands out as a reliever who has received interest as a starter this offseason.

Orioles Reportedly “Reluctant” To Pursue QO Starters From Other Clubs

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The Orioles made their first major splash on the free agent market this evening when they agreed with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal. That signing addressed their desire to add a right-handed bat to the lineup following the departure of switch-hitting free agent Anthony Santander, who was their best hitter in the outfield against left-handed pitching. The club’s biggest need of the winter remains unaddressed, however: a top-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void left by Corbin Burnes when he elected free agency last month.

While the club has previously been connected to top-of-the-market hurlers including former Braves southpaw Max Fried, a report this afternoon from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed some light on the club’s strategy for this winter’s pitching market by noting that the club is “reluctant” to pursue qualified free agent pitchers from other clubs. That stance would seemingly exclude them from not only the Fried sweepstakes but also the market for Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom they were previously connected to this winter.

There’s still a number of interesting free agent starters available this winter who don’t fit that description, led by a reunion with Burnes. Re-signing Burnes wouldn’t cause the Orioles to lose a draft pick beyond the opportunity cost of not receiving the pick after the first round they’d be in line to receive should he land elsewhere, but Rosenthal and Sammon suggested the chances of Burnes returning to Baltimore seem “remote” at this point given the possibility that the winter’s #2 free agent becomes the center of attention for Juan Soto bidders who fail to land the superstar slugger. For the Orioles’ part, GM Mike Elias made clear during an appearance on MLB Network Radio last month that the club would “love” to bring Burnes back into the fold for 2025 and beyond.

Should they find themselves outbid for Burnes, however, he’s far from the only viable option to improve the club’s rotation without forfeiting a draft pick. Rosenthal and Sammon describe both veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and righty Jack Flaherty as more appealing to the Orioles than a pursuit of Fried, Manaea, or Pivetta. Of the two, they report that the Orioles appear to prefer Eovaldi after Flaherty’s disastrous run with Baltimore following the trade deadline back in 2023, where he surrendered a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work before turning things around with the Tigers and Dodgers this past year with a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 28 starts.

Eovaldi also figures to be much cheaper than Flaherty this winter; on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $41MM contract for the veteran while predicting Flaherty would land $115MM over five years. Rosenthal and Sammon also suggest that Flaherty figures to land a contract in the four- to six-year range this winter, and while they don’t comment on Eovaldi’s expected contract it’s worth noting that deals of that length for a pitcher entering their age-35 season as Eovaldi is are all but unheard of in today’s game, with Jacob deGrom standing out as the notable exception to that rule. Eovaldi’s platform season saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 29 starts that don’t quite match up to Flaherty’s performance, though the veteran does offer a lengthy track record of mid-rotation success that compares favorably to Flaherty’s up-and-down career in terms of on-field results over the past half decade.

It also seems at least plausible that the Orioles could look to get creative as they search for rotation upgrades. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Baltimore was among the clubs that had interest in right-hander Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. While Holmes has been a reliever for the majority of his MLB career, the Mets signed him to pitch in their rotation and Rosenthal and Sammon indicated that Baltimore would’ve done the same had they landed him, though some of his other suitors planned to keep him in the relief role in which he turned in a dominant three-and-a-half year stretch with the Yankees. While it’s currently unclear if the club would consider any other free agent relief arms for a move to the rotation, both Michael Soroka and Jeff Hoffman have received buzz as potential starting pitching options this winter after successful runs in relief in 2024.

Yankees, Mets Reportedly Increase Soto Bids Beyond $700MM

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After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.

The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani’s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.

Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez’s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.

Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.

Tigers Seeking Starting Pitching, Have “Some Interest” In Flaherty Reunion

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As the Tigers look to build on the scorching finish to the season that delivered them a trip to the ALDS in 2024, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reported yesterday that the club is expected to target “at least” one starting pitcher this winter. With that being said, Stavenhagen cautions that the club is hoping to stick with short-term additions who can be had on one- or two-year contracts. Stavenhagen also suggests that the club could be hesitant to land a pitcher who received a Qualifying Offer this winter due to the associated loss of draft capital.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

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