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Multiple Teams Showed Pre-Lockout Interest In J.D. Davis

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The Mets were one of the most active teams in the pre-lockout frenzy, adding Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha. Those signings, along with Robinson Cano’s return from serving a season-long PED suspension, have given them a crowded position player mix. This has led to some speculation that the club could end up moving a player like Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis, with all three of those players appearing on MLBTR’s list of the likeliest post-lockout trade candidates. It seems that Davis was garnering his fair share of attention before the lockout, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Red Sox, Twins and Athletics all had interest in his services before the transactions freeze took hold in December.

The fact that various teams are interested in Davis is hardly surprising, given his excellent offensive skills. Since being acquired by the Mets from the Astros prior to the 2019 season, Davis has made 893 plate appearances in 269 games and has a line of .288/.373/.472. That’s good enough for a wRC+ of 130, fifth-best among third basemen with at least 850 plate appearances in that time, ahead of big names like Rafael Devers and Josh Donaldson.

Unfortunately, Davis hasn’t been as good on the other side of the ball, as advanced defensive metrics don’t look kindly upon his work at either third base or left field. For instance, Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave him -8 in 2019, followed by -6 in the shortened 2020 season and -3 in the 2021 campaign, despite playing just 73 games due to injury.

Despite those flaws, Davis should still hold plenty of appeal. The 28-year-old (29 in April) qualified for arbitration in 2021 due to reaching Super Two status and earned a salary of $2.1MM. Due to injuries holding him back last year, he is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest raise to $2.7MM in 2022 and can be controlled for two seasons beyond that. Those factors, combined with his bat, could make him a fit on plenty of rosters, especially now that the universal designated hitter is official.

The Cubs have spent most of the past year-plus subtracting from their roster, trading away Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. Since then, however, they have shown that they don’t have designs on totally tanking, as evidenced by their pre-lockout pickups of Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. They currently have Patrick Wisdom pencilled in at the hot corner after a nice breakout campaign last year. However, he struck out in a whopping 40.8% of his plate appearances, making it questionable if he can be a long-term solution at the position.

There has been some speculation that Rafael Devers is destined to be moved off of third base in the long run, due to his defensive limitations, though Davis isn’t really an upgrade in that department. However, putting Davis in left field could be an option, if the club feels he would fit in front of the Green Monster. Jarren Duran struggled in his debut last season and could perhaps be sent to Triple-A for more reps there. Or perhaps the lefty Durran and righty Davis could complement each other in a platoon capacity.

The Twins have Josh Donaldson at third but he’s also seen significant time at DH, only taking the field in 92 of his 135 games last year. Given his age, 36, and injury history, it would make sense to acquire another option for the hot corner to help keep him healthy. Luis Arraez could fill that role at the moment, but he hasn’t produced the same level of offense as Davis thus far in his career. There also could be a path to playing time on the grass, as youngsters Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach both had tepid debuts last year, putting up a wRC+ of 93 and 89, respectively.

The Athletics already have an excellent third baseman, technically, in Matt Chapman. However, it’s widely expected that the club is about to embark upon a major selloff, with Chapman being one of those most often mentioned as a trade candidate due to his increasing salary and two remaining years of control. Acquiring Davis could be a relatively affordable way of filling Chapman’s absence after a trade. The club also has big question marks in its outfield right now, after Marte and Canha both went to the Mets. Ramon Laureano will be in center field eventually, but first has to serve 27 more games of his PED suspension. Seth Brown had a decent campaign, but none of Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt or Luis Barrera did much to inspire confidence last year. Tony Kemp could play the outfield but may be needed at second base.

Though his ultimate destination is unknown, the sense of an impending trade seems to be growing with Davis himself. “It’s kind of 50/50, kind of a flip of the coin,” he said back in October. When asked the same question by Puma today, he said, “Now it could be say 60-40 out of here, but you never know.” Davis then elaborated, referencing the fact that Cano, McNeil, Smith and Luis Guillorme are all lefties. “Baseball is in a situation of bench players, and something like that, three or four lefties and I’m maybe the only righty, so strategically I could see myself back there, but I don’t know. Anything can happen.”

Read The Transcript Of Our Live Chat With Former MLB Outfielder Jonny Gomes

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Drafted in the 18th round by the Devil Rays out of Santa Rosa Junior College back in 2001, Jonny Gomes established himself as a Major Leaguer four years later with a third-place Rookie of the Year finish.  In his 13-year career, Gomes played for the Rays, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Red Sox, Braves, and Royals.  He also played for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles.

Gomes was perhaps best known for his hard-nosed style of play.  As Gary Shelton of the Tampa Bay Times put it, “There is nothing laid-back, nothing calm about Gomes. He lives his life as if there are two outs in the ninth and the bases are loaded and the bars are closing and the fuse is burning and the air is running out.”  From 2005-15, Gomes was hit by a pitch roughly once every 49 plate appearances, the 12th most-often in MLB.

Serving primarily as a left fielder and designated hitter, Gomes hit 162 home runs in his career.  He hit at least 17 home runs in a season six different times, usually in fewer than 120 games.  A right-handed hitter, Gomes terrorized southpaws throughout his time in the Majors.  The list of pitchers he’s taken deep includes CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Chris Sale, and Randy Johnson.

The biggest home run of Gomes’ career came in Game 4 of the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox against Seth Maness and the Cardinals in St. Louis.  Despite not being in the original starting lineup that day, Gomes crushed a three-run shot that led to Boston’s win.  The Red Sox won it in six games, and Gomes’ patriotism was on full display at the White House.  Gomes would go on to pick up the second ring of his career in 2015 with the Royals before retiring in 2016.

Earlier this month, Gomes joined BaseballCloud as its Director of Strategic Partnerships.  Part of his role involves the expansion of the company’s optical tracking system, Yakkertech.  You can follow Gomes on Instagram here and connect with him on Cameo here.

Today, we were proud to host Jonny for a live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript of today’s chat!

If you’re a current or former MLB player, come do a chat with us!  It only takes one hour, and you get to choose which questions you publish and answer.  Click here to contact us.

East Notes: Casas, Armstrong, Harris

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Triston Casas had a busy year in 2021, bouncing between Double-A, the Team USA Olympic squad and Triple-A. “I was bouncing all over the place,” Casas said to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I did my best to take it one day at a time and I’m happy with the way I handled it. But hopefully I’ll be a little more settled this year.” All of that bouncing around did nothing to slow Casas down, as the Red Sox first base prospect hit .279/.394/.484 for a wRC+ of 141 in 86 games, between Double-A and Triple-A. That showing has him on the cusp of making his major league debut, though he doesn’t yet have a spot on the roster. That means he’ll have the extra challenge of having to earn that roster spot before getting called up, but also comes with the positive of Casas not being locked out and thus eligible to participate in Spring Training. “I absolutely appreciate what they’re doing,” Casas said of the MLBPA’s efforts in the lockout. “I know they’re working diligently to make sure baseball is a fair game. I don’t know all the information, but they’re making a sacrifice to help younger players.” As for what comes next for the 22-year-old, “My goal is to make the major league team.” The Sox currently project to have Bobby Dalbec at first base and J.D. Martinez in the DH slot most of the time. However, Martinez is a free agent after 2022, meaning that, even if Casas struggles to force his way into the lineup this year, his chances of doing so will be much greater one year from now.

Elsewhere in the East…

  • Though Shawn Armstrong is a minor league free agent, the rules specifying which players are locked out have kept the right-hander on the open market and unable to sign even a minor league deal, according to The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin.  It’s a tough blow for the 31-year-old, especially since Armstrong said he heard from over 20 teams in November prior to the lockout, with the Rays (Armstrong’s former club) and roughly a dozen other teams offering minor league or split contracts.  Armstrong opted to wait for a guaranteed offer, but now finds himself stuck waiting to determine the next step in his career.  “I know, it’s going to be very, very quick when the lockout ends versus being able to talk and communicate and counteroffer and those types of things,” Armstrong said. “But it is what it is.  Nothing I can do about it.  Just got to stay ready.”
  • Braves outfield prospect Michael Harris II had a solid year in 2021, playing 101 High-A games and hitting .294/.362/.436, wRC+ of 114. But he might just be scratching the surface of what he’s capable of, at least according to fellow Braves prospect Braden Shewmake. “I think (Harris) could help (the big club). I definitely do,” Shewmake tells Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “When he gets his chance, I think he’s going to stick. I don’t think he’s going to be a guy that bounces back and forth.” Despite his promise, Harris is aware that he still has to make strides, telling Toscano that “There’s always somewhere to improve, so I don’t really focus on one specific area.” Harris doesn’t yet have a roster spot, meaning other outfielders like Drew Waters and Cristian Pache have a clearer path to playing time than he does. But unlike them, Harris has the advantage of not being locked out, and thus able to participate in team activities and access team facilities.

Ownership Notes: FSG, Red Sox, Ricketts, Cubs

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It was just over a year ago that RedBird Capital put down $750MM for shares in Fenway Sports Group, the parent company of the Boston Red Sox, as well as the Liverpool Football Club and NESN. MLBTR’s TC Zencka wrote about the investment offer at the time.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe profiles RedBird CEO Gerry Cardinale, noting that the group has made some big moves since that time, purchasing the Pittsburgh Penguins and investing in LeBron James’ SpringHill entertainment company. There are still plenty of other big moves being considered as well, with Cardinale saying that buying an NBA franchise is “a real top priority”, with other options on the to-do list including a cricket team, another soccer team, a WNBA team and an NFL team.

As noted by Silverman, FSG is now valued around $10 billion by Forbes. That’s a big jump from the time of RedBird’s investment a year ago, when the value was around $7.35 billion.

Elsewhere, Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago reports that the Ricketts family, who own the Chicago Cubs, are considering a purchase of Chelsea FC of the English Premier League. As Stebbins reports, “Chelsea owner and Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich announced this week the club is up for sale amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” He then points out that estimates of the value of the club are between $2-4 billion and highlights that the Ricketts purchased the Cubs in 2009 for $846MM, with the value of the franchise since ballooning up to $3.36 billion, according to Forbes.

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that all of this is happening amid MLB’s lockout, which has seen transactions frozen and players cut off from team facilities and personnel for over three months now, leading to the cancellation of the beginning of the season. It was one month ago, as part of this ongoing dispute, that MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred was asked if he thought owning an MLB club was a good investment, responding in the contrary and saying that the “return on those investments is below what you’d expect to get in the stock market” and that there was greater risk in owning a team.

During the course of the lockout, it has often been described as a “billionaires versus millionaires” fight. While the details above clearly illustrate that billion of dollars are involved in owning a team, the players have pushed back against this framing of the situation. Giants’ pitcher Alex Wood recently spoke on this exact topic to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. “That’s definitely one of the more frustrating stigmas that surrounds what we’re going through,” Wood said. “To make a blanket statement like that, it’s just false. Lots of people work for companies, but not everyone is in a union — we just happen to have a pretty strong union to fight for us and do what we morally think is right, and that’s all we’re asking for.”

As laid out by Slusser in that piece, “a 2019 study determined that 40% of players earned less than $1 million in their careers, and the median earnings in that group was $357,718, and that’s before being taxed in every state in which the teams play, union fees or agents’ percentages.”

MLB and MLBPA met again today in another attempt to make progress towards resolving the lockout. The MLB responded unfavorably to the union’s proposals, attempting to frame today’s proposal as a step backwards and saying that the sides are now deadlocked. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the sides could meet again as soon as Monday.

Red Sox Sign Silvino Bracho, Darin Gillies To Minor League Deals

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The Red Sox announced that right-handers Silvino Bracho and Darin Gillies have been signed to minor league deals and received invitations to the team’s big league Spring Training camp (when it opens).  Boston also officially announced the signing of Tyler Danish — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported two weeks ago that Danish had inked a minors contract with the Sox.  All three players were minor league free agents, and thus eligible to be signed despite the lockout.

Bracho is a veteran of five Major League seasons, all with the Diamondbacks from 2015-20.  However, he has tossed only a single inning in The Show since the start of the 2019 season, as Bracho underwent a Tommy John surgery and then had a setback in his recovery.  As well, Bracho missed a good chunk of the 2020 campaign while covering from a case of COVID-19.

The 29-year-old righty signed a minors deal with the Giants last winter and reset himself to some extent with Triple-A Sacramento, posting a 4.14 ERA over 50 relief innings.  Bracho ran into some home run problems and he had the misfortune of a .383 BABIP, though his 29% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate were promising.  Missing bats has never been an issue for Bracho at the minor league level, though he has a more modest 24.1% strikeout rate over his 89 2/3 career innings in the bigs.  Bracho posted a 4.82 ERA during his time in Arizona, allowing 17 homers in that relatively small sample size.

Gillies was a 10th-round pick for the Mariners in the 2015 draft, and apart from a cameo in independent ball in 2020 when the minor league season was canceled, Gillies has spent his entire career in Seattle’s farm system.  The right-hander has a 3.96 ERA and 24.63% strikeout rate over 338 1/3 frames in the minors, working as a reliever in all but eight of his 215 career games.  After struggling at the Triple-A level in both 2018 and 2019, Gillies had a more solid showing in Tacoma this past season, with a 3.74 ERA over his 21 2/3 innings for the Mariners’ top affiliate.

Latest On Carlos Correa

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Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.

The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.

That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.

The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.

The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.

As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.

For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.

Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.

AL East Notes: Anderson, Whitlock, Barnes

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Rays righty Nick Anderson, on the mend from surgery that installed a brace to stabilize a damaged ligament in his elbow, tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he’s progressing through rehab and currently throwing from 60 feet. The 31-year-old originally sustained a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in Spring Training 2021 but opted for rehab rather than Tommy John surgery after both the Rays’ medical staff and renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister advised that course of treatment. He returned to the big leagues in September but didn’t look close to his 2019-20 form in doing so. Anderson acknowledged that had he initially opted for surgery, he might be in a better place, rehab-wise, than he currently is, but explained that the decision is never so easy.

“Obviously, looking back at it, I’m like, well, shoot, I should have just got cut open right away when I had the injury,” says Anderson. “That would have solved that and I would have been back like the beginning of this year. But what do you do? You don’t ever really know. You  just make a choice and roll with it, and hope it’s the right one.” Topkin notes that Anderson is expected back at some point in the middle of the 2021 season.

Some more from the division…

  • Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love[s] the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously.
  • Matt Barnes’ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.

Red Sox Sign Tyler Danish To Minors Deal

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The Red Sox have signed right-hander Tyler Danish to a minor league contract, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors reports (Twitter link).  The contract contains an invitation to Boston’s big league Spring Training camp.

Danish recently took part in a chat with MLBTR readers, discussing his career and some of the ins and outs of being a professional ballplayer.  As Tim wrote at the time, Danish “expects to sign with an MLB team within the next week or so,” and that deal has now come about with the Red Sox.  Since Danish was a minor league free agent, the lockout didn’t prohibit him from signing.

A second-round pick for the White Sox in the 2013 draft, Danish posted a 4.85 ERA over 13 innings for Chicago, pitching in parts of the 2016-18 seasons.  This represents his only big league experience, as subsequent minor league contracts with the Mariners (prior to the 2019 season) and Angels (last May) didn’t result in another call to the Show.  In between those stints in affiliated ball, Danish also pitched for teams in the independent Atlantic League and American Association.

As Danish noted during his chat, he “kinda broke my whole delivery down and almost rebuilt it from the ground up” in 2020, resulting in some interesting numbers during his season in the Angels’ farm system.  Mostly a grounder-specialist for the bulk of his career, Danish still posted a 47.1% grounder rate over 60 1/3 innings with Triple-A Salt Lake in 2021, but he also had a strong 25.8% strikeout rate. 

Danish also improved his control, though became a little more susceptible to the long ball, with nine home runs allowed over those 60 1/3 frames.  He’ll now get a chance to catch on with the Red Sox in Spring Training, with seemingly a decent chance at winning a job given the unsettled nature of the Boston bullpen.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Jeremy Giambi Passes Away

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FEBRUARY 10: The Los Angeles County Medical Examiner/Coroner’s Office has ruled Giambi’s death a suicide, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. According to the M.E.’s Office, he died of a gunshot wound to the chest. Barry Zito, Giambi’s former teammate in Oakland, told the Chronicle Giambi was “an incredibly loving human being with a very soft heart and it was evident to us as his teammates that he had some deeper battles going on. I hope this can be a wake-up call for people out there to not go at it alone and for families and friends to trust their intuition when they feel somebody close to them needs help. God bless Jeremy and his family in this difficult time.”

FEBRUARY 9: Former major league outfielder Jeremy Giambi passed away today, agent Joel Wolfe informed reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). He was 47 years old.

Giambi began his professional career in 1996, when the Royals selected him out of Cal State Fullerton. The lefty-hitting outfielder reached the big leagues as a September call-up just two years later. After appearing in 18 games down the stretch, he ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects entering the 1999 season. Giambi played in a bit more than half of Kansas City’s games that year. That offseason, the A’s — for whom his older brother Jason Giambi was already an established star — acquired him in a deal that sent Brett Laxton to Kansas City.

The younger Giambi would spend the next two and a half seasons in Oakland, developing into a productive hitter. After putting up league average offensive numbers in 2000, the California native emerged as a key on-base threat by 2001. He hit .283/.391/.450 over 443 plate appearances that year, then began the following season with a .274/.390/.471 showing. Midway through the year, he was dealt to the Phillies for John Mabry. Giambi continued to produce in Philadelphia, posting a .244/.435/.538 mark with the Phils.

Philadelphia traded Giambi to the Red Sox over the 2002-03 offseason. He appeared in 50 games with Boston the following season, though his numbers dipped to a .197/.342/.354 line. That proved to be his final big league experience, as subsequent stints in the Dodgers and White Sox farm systems didn’t result in another MLB look.

Giambi is likely best remembered for his run with the A’s. The Oakland organization released a statement (via Twitter): We are heartbroken to learn of the passing of a member of our Green and Gold family, Jeremy Giambi. We offer our condolences to Jeanne, Jason, and his family and friends. MLBTR joins countless others around the game in sending our condolences to Giambi’s family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.

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