Red Sox To Select Enmanuel Valdez
The Red Sox are going to select the contract of infielder Enmanuel Valdez today, according to Christopher Smith of MassLive. Acquired in the Christian Vázquez trade, Valdez was set to reach minor league free agency but will instead get a spot on Boston’s 40-man roster.
Valdez, who turns 24 next month, spent six and a half seasons in the minors of the Astros’ system. For the purposes of seven-year minor league free agency, 2020 counts as a year even though no official games were played due to the pandemic. In that time, he never got a huge amount of attention from prospect evaluators, having never appeared on a Baseball America list of top Houston farmhands coming into this year. FanGraphs gave him an honorable mention on their lists going into 2019, 2020 and 2021.
2022 was a big breakout for Valdez, however, with his bat taking a big step forward. Prior to the trade, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A and produced a combined batting line of .327/.410/.606 for a wRC+ of 151. He slumped a bit after the deal, hitting .237/.309/.422 for a wRC+ of 92. But nonetheless, the Boston brass are intrigued enough that they have given Valdez a roster spot.
He doesn’t appear to have a set position at the moment, having spent time at first, second and third base in 2022, as well as the outfield corners. The Sox have an uncertain position player mix at the moment, with Xander Bogaerts now a free agent. They could look to have Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández cover short, but that would then create a vacancy at second base or center field. Of course, there’s also the possibility of the club re-signing Bogaerts, though it remains to be seen if that’s in the cards. Regardless, Valdez will join Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang and Jeter Downs as depth/utility types battling for playing time next season.
Red Sox Planning To Use Garrett Whitlock As Starter In 2023
The Red Sox are planning to deploy right-hander Garrett Whitlock out of the rotation in 2023, general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). O’Halloran added that Tanner Houck could get a look as a starter as well, although that decision hasn’t yet been made.
“With Whit, we told him to plan to be a starter and we expect him to be a starter,” the GM told reporters. “With Tanner, we said something similar. We talked through that he will go through the offseason planning to be a starter and we’ll build him up as such. But there’s a little bit (less) definition around his role and he knows it could go in either direction.” O’Halloran added the decision to move Whitlock to the rotation “was a little bit more clear and definitive” than the situation with Houck, whose role figures to be determined in part by the course of the Boston offseason.
Whitlock has worked almost exclusively as a reliever in his MLB career. Since being selected from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft, the UAB product has made 68 relief appearances and nine starts. Whitlock has frequently worked multiple innings out of the bullpen, however, emerging as one of the league’s most valuable relievers. He’s tallied 112 2/3 innings of 2.24 ERA ball as a reliever, striking out a well above-average 28.1% of opponents. Whitlock predictably hasn’t been quite so dominant as a starter, but he owns a 4.15 ERA with a decent 23.5% strikeout rate and a stellar 5.5% walk percentage in that time.
The 26-year-old doesn’t have much experience turning a big league lineup over three times, but he mixes three pitches and has handled hitters from both sides of the plate. That gives Whitlock a chance to be a quality starting pitcher, the role he filled throughout his time in the minors.
Boston signed Whitlock to an $18.75MM guarantee during Spring Training. He’s controllable via a pair of club options through 2028, and Cotillo notes that deal contains some innings-based incentives — ones which Whitlock cementing himself in the rotation would help him unlock.
As for Houck, he started 13 of 18 appearances in 2021 but came out of the bullpen 28 of 32 times this year. Houck also worked multiple innings frequently, but he’s had more marked platoon splits than Whitlock has. Left-handers this year had a .259/.376/.400 line against the 26-year-old hurler, who stifled righties to a .205/.269/.227 line. Houck’s heavy reliance on his fastball and slider at the expense of a changeup or splitter have led to some concern among evaluators about his ability to turn lineups over three times as a starter.
Boston will unquestionably add to their rotation over the coming months. At present, the Sox have just Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, James Paxton and now Whitlock as rotation pieces for 2023. Former top prospect Brayan Bello could get into that mix, as could Houck, but only Pivetta looks like a safe bet for innings. Sale and Paxton have barely pitched the past couple years because of injury, while Bello’s rookie season was up-and-down. The Sox are seeing Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency.
Mariners Acquire Easton McGee From Red Sox
The Mariners have acquired right-hander Easton McGee from the Red Sox for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.
McGee, who turns 25 next month, was originally selected to a big league roster for the first time about six weeks ago, yet is now in his third organization already. A 2016 draft pick of the Rays, he was added to Tampa’s roster at the end of September but quickly designated for assignment after a single appearance. He was claimed by the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season and didn’t get a chance to pitch for them. Though Boston won’t get any contributions from McGee on the field, they will at least get some Seattle cash out of the deal.
McGee has never been a huge strikeout artist but has often succeeded in the minors by inducing a lot of ground balls. His grounder rate has been around 45-50% in most of his minor league seasons, though it dropped to 39.6% over 107 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022. That led to McGee posting an ERA of 5.43 on the year, though he’d been better than that in previous campaigns. Another thing he has going for him is control, as he’s never posted a walk rate above 4.8%, apart from his rookie ball debut. For reference, the MLB average in 2022 was 8.2%. McGee still has a full slate of options, meaning the Mariners can keep him stashed in the minors as a depth option for the foreseeable future.
Red Sox, Rob Refsnyder Avoid Arbitration
The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielder Rob Refsnyder by agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Chad Jennings of The Athletic. Refsnyder will earn a salary of $1.2MM in 2023, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and will be able to earn an extra $100K in performance bonuses, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a slightly higher salary of $1.6MM.
Refsnyder, who turns 32 in March, has bounced around the league for much of his career, spending time with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers and Twins. Minnesota non-tendered him after a 2021 season where he hit .245/.325/.338 for a wRC+ of 88.
The Red Sox signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Triple-A Worcester to start the year. He got a brief bump to the big leagues in April as a COVID “substitute” but didn’t properly get his contract selected until June. With Worcester, he was hitting an incredible .306/.429/.524 for a wRC+ of 155. After his promotion, he was largely able to duplicate those results at the big league level, finishing the year with a batting line of .307/.384/.497 for a wRC+ of 146. He had only six career home runs in over 600 plate appearances coming into the year and doubled that total by adding six more in just 177 trips to the plate.
That’s still a fairly small sample size but it was enough for the Sox to see if he can carry that over into 2023 with a slight bump in pay. Though Refsnyder has played a lot of infield in his career, Boston kept him in the outfield in 2022 and seems likely to keep him there again next year. Enrique Hernandez could play some infield but is also the best in-house option for the regular center field job at the moment. Alex Verdugo should be pencilled into one of the corners, though the club recently declined their mutual option on Tommy Pham.
Refsnyder has never been much more than a part-time player, with his 177 plate appearances in 2022 actually his career high. Perhaps he’ll have a chance to carve out an everyday role next year if the Red Sox think his results are sustainable, but it’s also possible they acquire another option at some point this offseason and push Refsnyder into the fourth outfielder. But for now, they’ve got a deal at a modest price point on a guy who showed breakout potential and could be sneaky value.
James Paxton Exercises Player Option
The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.
Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.
The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.
Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.
That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.
The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.
That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.
This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.
With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.
Latest On Market For Willson Contreras
Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.
While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.
It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.
Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.
The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.
Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.
Eric Hosmer Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause
In one of the most obvious opt-out decisions in recent memory, Red Sox first baseman Eric Hosmer will forgo his opportunity to return to the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s now locked into the final three years and $39MM of the contract, although the Sox are only on the hook for the league minimum in each of the next three seasons. The Padres are paying the remainder of Hosmer’s salary each season under the terms of the deadline trade that sent him to Boston.
The eight-year, $144MM contract Hosmer signed with San Diego prior to the 2018 season went south almost immediately. A then-27-year-old Hosmer posted a massive .318/.385/.498 slash and swatted 25 homers for the second consecutive season in 2017 — his final year with the Royals, who originally drafted him No. 3 overall in 2008. That led to the aforementioned eight-year deal for Hosmer, but his offensive production cratered in year one with the Friars, as he hit just .253/.322/.398 in his first year with the team.
Over the first five seasons of that nine-figure contract, Hosmer has been exactly average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. He’s hit .265/.325/.409 and averaged 18 home runs and 30 doubles per 162 games played. Hosmer hasn’t necessarily been a bad hitter, but his $18MM annual salary was promised to him under the assumption that he’d continue on as a well above-average, middle-of-the-order hitter.
That simply hasn’t been the case, due in large part to the fact that Hosmer’s bloated ground-ball rate with the Royals actually got even higher with the Friars. Since signing in San Diego, 56.5% of Hosmer’s batted balls have been hit on the ground — the fourth-highest mark among 315 qualified MLB hitters in that stretch. Perhaps the limitations on infield shifts that are coming in 2023 will help Hosmer in that regard, but his repeated inability to elevate the ball will continue to suppress his power output.
The Padres traded Hosmer and a pair of minor leaguers (Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson) to the Red Sox in exchange for former first-round pick Jay Groome, agreeing to pay Hosmer’s salary down to the league minimum as part of the contract. Hosmer also was granted a full no-trade clause as part of that deal, so he’ll have the final say on whether he’ll remain in Boston through 2025 unless the Sox ultimately release him. For now, he’ll give the Red Sox a cost-effective veteran first baseman or perhaps designated hitter, dependent on when the team is ready to give top prospect Triston Casas a full-time look in the big leagues.
Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop
The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.
Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”
Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”
Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.
Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.
Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).
Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.
Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option
The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.
This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.
It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.
Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.
Red Sox To Decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 Mutual Option
The Red Sox won’t be exercising their end of Tommy Pham‘s $12MM mutual option for 2023, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports. Pham gets a $1.5MM buyout on the option, and becomes a free agent.
It was a tough season for Pham, who may have received more attention for a fantasy football-related altercation with Joc Pederson than for anything he did on the field in 2022. Pham hit .236/.312/.374 over 622 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Red Sox, with Pham coming to Boston at the trade deadline. The acquisition seemed a little unusual given that the Sox were on the outskirts of the playoff race and had already dealt away Christian Vazquez in a seeming “seller” move, yet the Red Sox were hopeful that Pham and Eric Hosmer (picked up in another deal from the Padres) could help spark a late-season run.
Unfortunately, as Boston as well as in Cincinnati, Pham couldn’t translate his 89th percentile hard-hit ball rate into consistent production. Pham didn’t help his cause with a 26.8% strikeout rate (his highest since the 2016 season) that included a lot of extra pitches chased outside the strike zone without any success. His nine percent walk rate was still above the league average, yet well below the 90th-percentile average that Pham previously posted during his career.
Vision problems may have contributed to this down season, as Pham has been dealing with keratoconus (a cornea-thinning eye issue) for several years, but he told McWilliams that he believes he now has the problem corrected. This is hardly the first or most serious health problem Pham has had to overcome, as he was the victim of a stabbing incident in October 2020.
Pham expressed an interest in returning to Boston, which may yet be a possibility given the uncertainty in the outfield picture. Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo look like the only regulars in place, and even Verdugo might not be a safe bet given some recent trade speculation. It remains to be seen if the Red Sox might look to bolster the outfield with a star-level everyday regular, or if they could perhaps add a complementary or part-time veteran to allow for mixing and matching at-bats for Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder. In general, the Sox could just be looking for more power in the outfield, which might not bode well for Pham given his modest slugging percentages in the last three seasons.