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Red Sox Acquire Willson Contreras

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Less than a month after landing Sonny Gray, the Red Sox have acquired another prominent veteran talent from St. Louis.  Boston has landed first baseman Willson Contreras and $8MM in cash considerations from the Cardinals in exchange for a package of three right-handed pitchers — Hunter Dobbins and prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita.

Contreras and his agents at Octagon negotiated an extra $1MM bonus for Contreras to approve the trade, as the veteran’s contract includes a full no-trade clause.  The final two guaranteed seasons of Contreras’ contract and the club option on his services for 2028 have been slightly reworked, so he’ll now receive $18MM in 2026, $17MM in 2027, and the Red Sox hold a $20MM club option on his services in 2028, with a $7.5MM buyout.  (The previous terms included salaries of $18MM and $18.5MM in 2026-27, plus a $5MM buyout on a 2028 club option valued at$17.5MM.)

The final accounting works out to $42.5MM in guaranteed money for Contreras over the remainder of his deal.  Factoring in the Cardinals’ $8MM contribution, Boston’s commitment to Contreras is $34.5MM in salary, and his luxury tax number is $17.25MM.

When the Cards were first exploring a rebuild last winter, neither Contreras or Gray was open to waiving their no-trade protection.  After a lackluster 78-84 season sent the Cards more firmly looking towards the future, Gray, Contreras, and Nolan Arenado (who blocked a deal to the Astros last winter) all indicated in recent months that they were more open to accepting a trade.

In Contreras’ case, he cracked the door open at the end of season by saying that “if something comes up…and it makes sense for me and my future, how about we talk about that?” Contreras said.  The first baseman stressed that he was still eager to contribute as a veteran leader within the Cardinals’ rebuild, though reports emerged a few weeks ago that Contreras was showing an increased willingness to waive his no-trade clause and move on to a new challenge.

Contreras (who turns 34 in May) ends his St. Louis tenure with a .261/.358/.459 slash line and 55 home runs over 1416 plate appearances from 2023-25.  Signed to a five-year, $87.5MM free agent deal back in December 2022, the idea was that Contreras would take over from Yadier Molina as the team’s regular catcher, yet in somewhat awkward fashion, the Cardinals reduced Contreras’ playing time behind the plate and used him regularly as a DH.  Heading into the 2025 season, Contreras became a full-time first baseman, returning to a position he’d played only a handful of times earlier in his career with the Cubs.  The Outs Above Average metric gave Contreras a positive +6 grade for his first base work in 2025, but he also received -1 Defensive Runs Saved.

Regardless, it would seem like Contreras is at least a passable defender at the cold corner, and the Red Sox can live with only so-so defense as long as the former All-Star continues to hit.  Contreras batted .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs over 563 PA in 2025, translating to a 124 wRC+.  A career-low 7.8% walk rate was a concern and Contreras has always been prone to strikeouts, but he continued to make consistently hard and productive contact.  Contreras is a right-handed batter, which helps balance out a Boston lineup that tilts to the left side.

Contreras’ final four seasons in Chicago overlapped with Craig Breslow’s time working in the Cubs’ front office, before Breslow was hired to take over Boston’s baseball operations department following the 2023 season.  Breslow’s tenure has thus far been defined by significant trades, ranging from the deals that brought Gray, Garrett Crochet, and now Contreras to Fenway Park, and last June’s surprising move that sent Rafael Devers to the Giants.

One of the many factors involved in the Devers trade was Devers’ displeasure over being asked to move to first base in the wake of Triston Casas’ season-ending knee surgery in early May.  While Romy Gonzalez and deadline pickup Nathaniel Lowe helped fill the first base void, there was little doubt the Sox were going to address the position in a larger fashion this winter.  Pete Alonso, Isaac Paredes, Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami, and Bryce Eldridge were among the first base candidates on Boston’s radar on the free agent and trade fronts this winter, and Cotillo reported last week that Contreras was another name under consideration.

With Contreras now in the fold, a Casas trade now looks increasingly likely.  Casas has been floated in trade talks even dating back to last winter and prior to his knee surgery, and despite his injury-shortened season, rival clubs figure to have interest in the former top prospect.  Conversely, if the Sox could figure out a way to dump Masataka Yoshida’s contract, Casas could share first base/DH duties with Contreras.

Adding a first baseman solves another piece of Boston’s infield puzzle, and turns a position from a weak link into a strength.  The Red Sox remain linked to such other major infield names as Bo Bichette or old friend Alex Bregman, and Contreras’ $36MM price tag shouldn’t prevent the Sox from spending big on either of those names, even considering Boston’s recent wariness about major financial commitments.  Trading an outfielder could further shake up the position-player mix, and there have been consistent rumors about the possibility of the Sox moving an outfielder for pitching.

The Red Sox entered the winter with a lot of pitching depth in terms of young arms, yet were lacking proven frontline hurlers that could join Crochet and Brayan Bello in the rotation.  Gray was one answer, and fellow trade pickup Johan Oviedo could be another after Oviedo was acquired from the Pirates.  This has made Breslow more comfortable in trading from further down his pitching depth chart, and after moving Richard Fitts and prospect Brandon Clarke to St. Louis for Gray, Breslow has now parted ways with Dobbins, Fajardo, and Aida.

The equation has been pretty simple for Breslow.  The CBO has been willing to move some (i.e. Jhostynxon Garcia, Kyle Teel) of Boston’s more highly-touted prospects while hanging onto the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell, and also moving some pitchers that no longer seem to be in Boston’s plans.  In Dobbins’ case, he isn’t even going to be available for the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, as the righty tore his right ACL last July.  This was the second right ACL tear Dobbins has endured, plus he has a Tommy John surgery on his checkered health history.

Dobbins made his MLB debut in 2025, and posted a 4.13 ERA, 6.6% walk rate, and 17.6% strikeout rate over his first 61 innings in the Show.  An eighth round pick for the Sox in the 2021 draft, Dobbins is more of grounder-heavy pitcher than a big strikeout arm, but his slider and curveball have good whiff rates as complements to his 95.5mph fastball.  Significant questions remain about Dobbins’ durability, but the 26-year-old right-hander has less than a year of MLB service time and now projects to be a longer-term add to the St. Louis rotation.

Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom is plenty familiar with Dobbins, as Bloom was running Boston’s front office when Dobbins came into the organization.  Interestingly, of the five pitchers obtained by the Cardinals in the Contreras and Gray trades, Dobbins is the only one who was part of Boston’s organization when Bloom was still there.

Fitts and (when healthy) Dobbins can factor in the Cardinals’ rotation picture as early as 2026.  Dobbins doesn’t at all fit Bloom’s desire to add another veteran arm to the rotation, yet finding an innings-eater is a short-term goal, whereas Dobbins is part of the bigger picture.  That has been the story of this offseason in St. Louis, as with Bloom now fully installed atop the decision-making pyramid, the Cardinals are embarking on the rebuild they considered but then backed away from last winter.

Trading Contreras removes another big chunk of salary from the Cards’ books.  An Arenado deal could be the next step, though that trade will be trickier due to both Arenado’s salary and the fact that (unlike Contreras or Gray) Arenado is coming off a rough 2025 season.  Other players like Brendan Donovan and JoJo Romero have also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors.  One player St. Louis wasn’t very willing to move is Alec Burleson, who now looks to step right into the everyday first base role with Contreras gone.

Fajardo was an international signing for the White Sox in 2024, and he has now been traded twice before his 20th birthday.  Fajardo changed his Sox when Chicago sent him Boston a year ago in the Cam Booser trade, and the righty had a 2.25 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and a 9.4% walk rate over 72 innings in rookie ball and with A-level Salem in 2025.  MLB Pipeline ranked Fajardo 23rd on their ranking of the top 30 Red Sox prospects, describing the teenager as “a potential mid-rotation starter” whose four-seam fastball can hit 97mph.

Aita was a sixth-round pick for the Red Sox in the 2024 draft.  His first pro season saw the 22-year-old right-hander post a 3.98 ERA in 115 1/3 combined innings in Salem and at high-A Greenville, with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate.  As per Geoff Pontes of Baseball America, Aita technically has a five-pitch arsenal but he rarely throws his slider.  Aita’s fastball is in the 92-93mph range but with plenty of movement, and there’s also a lot of movement and spin on his sweeper and cutter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report that Contreras was going to Boston for Dobbins and multiple minor league pitchers, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal later identifying Fajardo and Aita.  ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the detail of Contreras’ $1MM bonus for waiving his no-trade clause.  MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported the $8MM heading from St. Louis to Boston, and Cotillo and The Athletic’s Katie Woo had the details on the reworked money in Contreras’ contract. 

Inset picture courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing — Imagn Images

White Sox, Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Munetaka Murakami

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NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami’s posting window closes at 4pm CT time on December 22. With just over a day left for Murakami to sign with an MLB club, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the White Sox are among the teams that are presently engaged in talks with the slugger’s camp. Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds that the Red Sox have “kicked the tires” on Murakami, as well as fellow NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto’s posting window closes on January 4.

Murakami’s time on the market has been unusually quiet for a player of his status. These reports of interest on the part of Chicago and Boston are the first significant reports tying Murakami to any of MLB’s 30 teams, as his representation has seemingly played things very close to the vest regarding his market. The 25-year-old has surely received interest from other clubs as well that has simply gone unreported, of course, but Murakami’s market doesn’t seem to be quite as strong as expected even when factoring in that reality.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America suggested in an appearance on Foul Territory this past week that the slugger’s market has been “softer” than he and his representation were expecting entering the offseason. MLBTR ranked Murakami as the #4 free agent on the market this winter, predicting an eight-year, $180MM contract for the young slugger as part of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. That ranking accounts for Murakami’s top-of-the-scale power and extreme youth heading into free agency; Yoshinobu Yamamoto was just six months younger than Murakami when he landed a $325MM contract from the Dodgers, while the fact that Juan Soto was headed into his age-26 season was a key factor in him landing a record-shattering $765MM deal last winter.

With that said, Murakami’s low contact rates have raised some eyebrows around the baseball world since his posting, and it’s not hard to see why. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris illustrated the concerns with Murakami’s lack of contact in NPB by sharing a list of players with comparable contact rates and exit velocities in the majors in recent years. The resulting group includes some stars like Nick Kurtz (and Shohei Ohtani if the parameters adjusted to be somewhat more favorable to Murakami), but it includes a far larger group of middling players, ranging from decent regulars like Matt Wallner to early-career flame-outs like Aristides Aquino. There’s certainly reasons to believe Murakami will be a great deal better than those players, of course; his raw production in NPB is nothing short of otherworldly. Even so, the risk in the young slugger’s profile is real, and it’s not necessarily a shock that teams might shy away from giving him a massive contract until and unless he can prove his style of play works at the big league level.

Turning to the clubs with reported interest in Murakami, the White Sox are a very interesting fit. The slugger is certainly young enough to be part of the next competitive team on the south side; he’s just two years older than star rookies Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel. That makes him an intriguing fit for the Sox, especially if he signs with the club on a long-term deal. Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa are the club’s projected starters at the infield corners at the moment, but neither player is locked in strongly enough to prevent the addition of Murakami.

A short-term deal could also be possible, as well; the White Sox signed Erick Fedde to a two-year deal two winters ago and rode a strong first half to secure a three-way trade involving Fedde that brought back Vargas. A similar approach could be employed here as well, at least in theory. Chicago might be a particularly appealing destination for the young slugger given their lack of competitive expectations this year; it could allow him the opportunity to make necessary adjustments at the big league level without the pressure of a pennant race, and perhaps the White Sox would be more comfortable than most clubs trying Murakami at third base despite widespread concerns about his ability at the position.

As for the Red Sox, Murakami could provide the sort of elite slugger than the Red Sox lost when they traded away Rafael Devers over the summer. That makes the fit between the sides plausible, but there are certainly questions and obstacles as well. For one, the Red Sox are entering a clear win-now window after making the playoffs last year, and might not be willing to play Murakami through any struggles that could come with his adjustment to the majors. For another, the Red Sox are already extremely left-handed and have Triston Casas in-house as a first base/DH option with plenty of upside in his own right. Boston would need to be confident that Murakami would be a substantial upgrade over Casas in order to commit significant dollars to him for the same role.

While a pursuit of Murakami from Boston can’t be ruled out, the quote from Cotillo about Boston “kicking the tires” on the slugger suggests more of a reserved approach to his market. That’s an understandable path to take, particularly given that Okamoto could be a better fit. Okamoto is older than Murakami and lacks his countryman’s elite power, but he’s enjoyed a much more steady career in NPB without contact rate concerns, offers more playable defensive skills at third base, and is a right-handed hitter who more effectively complements the Red Sox lineup. That solid fit is part of why the Red Sox have been linked to Okamoto on occasion throughout the winter, even as they pursue a reunion with third baseman Alex Bregman.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025

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Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $169.4MM
  • Mets: $91.6MM
  • Yankees: $61.8MM
  • Phillies: $56.1MM
  • Blue Jays: $13.6MM
  • Padres: $7MM
  • Astros: $1.5MM
  • Red Sox: $1.5MM
  • Rangers: $190K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.

This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.

While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.

The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.

The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.

On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.

Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.

Red Sox, Nationals Swap Pitching Prospects

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In a rare type of transaction, the Nationals and Red Sox have agreed to swap pitching prospects. The clubs announced a one-for-one deal that sends righty Luis Perales to Washington and southpaw Jake Bennett to Boston. Neither player has made his MLB debut but both are on the 40-man roster.

It’s the kind of trade that fans often like to project but which almost never happens in practice. Neither Bennett nor Perales is a top-tier prospect, but they each ranked among the top 10 talents in their respective organizations at Baseball America. Teams tend to value their own prospects more highly than those in other systems. That’s only natural, as they liked the player enough to acquire them in the first place and have been instrumental in their development.

That makes it difficult for teams to align on straight prospect for prospect deals — at least ones that aren’t largely motivated by roster considerations. This one was driven by a regime change in Washington. The Nationals hired former Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni as their president of baseball operations. He has hired a handful of former Boston staffers in front office and player development roles. They evidently liked Perales enough to make him a priority.

Perales is a 22-year-old who signed with the Sox out of Venezuela. He has shown huge strikeout stuff with very concerning command. The Sox added him to their 40-man roster over the 2023-24 offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Perales blew out seven starts into the following season and underwent Tommy John surgery. He missed almost all of 2025 rehabbing, only returning for three short relief appearances in the final week. Those included his first two appearances in Triple-A, where he was back to pumping a 99 MPH fastball with a low-90s cutter and a mid-80s changeup.

Baseball America’s scouting report understandably lauds the fastball. They also grade the cutter as a plus pitch but note that he’ll need to develop an offspeed pitch and dramatically improve his control if he’s to stick as a starter. While there’s a decent chance he ends up in short relief down the line, the Nationals don’t need to hurry that. They can option him to Double-A or Triple-A as a starter or multi-inning reliever as they monitor his innings in his first full season back from the surgery.

Bennett, 25, is a 6’6″ lefty who was added to Washington’s 40-man roster last month. They needed to keep him out of this winter’s Rule 5 draft. As with Perales, he has been set back by a Tommy John procedure. His surgery came after the 2023 campaign and wiped out his entire ’24 season. The Oklahoma University product got back on the mound this past May. He combined for 19 appearances between three levels up to Double-A. Bennett turned in a 2.27 earned run average across 75 1/3 innings. He recorded a slightly below-average 21.5% strikeout rate but kept his walks to a tidy 6.4% clip.

BA credits Bennett with a plus changeup as the only standout offering in a six-pitch arsenal. He has plus control and the size to generate good extension. Bennett’s fastball only sits around 92-93 MPH on average. He’s unlikely to miss a ton of bats unless the Sox can coax more velocity out of him, but he’s a much safer bet than Perales to stick in a rotation. Bennett should reach Triple-A at some point next season and has a chance to debut before the end of the year, though that’d probably take a number of injuries to starters ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Red Sox opt for the more stable back-end starter profile while the Nationals shoot for the risk-reward play. Bennett has a trio of minor league option years. Perales is headed into his third option year but is likely to be eligible for a fourth option in 2027 because of his limited professional workload.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the trade. Respective images courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jaylynn Nash, Imagn Images.

Latest On Evan Phillips

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The Dodgers non-tendered former closer Evan Phillips in November, as the right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery and was heading into his final season of club control. Phillips’ projected $6.1MM salary would’ve cost the Dodgers more than double due to taxes, and given that he underwent surgery in early June, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back on a mound this season at all.

On the surface, Phillips makes for an interesting free agent target for clubs looking at bullpen help both in 2026 and in 2027. It’s become increasingly common for pitchers rehabbing from UCL surgeries to sign two-year deals, with the first year ticketed largely for rehab and the second intended to be a full season on the mound. Phillips, however, prefers to sign a straight one-year deal and return to the market next offseason, reports Tim Healey of the Boston Globe. Phillips isn’t planning to sign until at least January, when he’s cleared to resume throwing, and may delay signing until July, when he’s effectively game-ready.

The Red Sox are among the teams that have expressed interest in Phillips, per Healey, though they’re surely just one of many. Phillips’ one-year target and pre-injury track record make him a plausible fit for nearly any team. He’s not going to be prohibitively expensive for most clubs, and the 31-year-old righty has been terrific in four-plus seasons with Los Angeles.

Originally landing with the Dodgers by way of a waiver claim from the Rays, Phillips pitched decently in the final few weeks of the 2021 season. However, it was the 2022 season that saw the right-hander truly break out. In 63 innings that season, he turned in a superhuman 1.14 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate.

Dating back to that 2022 breakout, Phillips has pitched 184 2/3 innings with a 2.14 earned run average, a 29.6% strikeout rate, a 6.6% walk rate, a 43.3% ground-ball rate, 45 saves and 36 holds. He’s allowed an average of just 0.68 homers per nine innings pitched while sitting better than 96 mph with his four-seamer, just under 95.8 mph with his sinker, 93.1 mph with his cutter and 85.1 mph with his slider.

There are advantages both to waiting into late in the offseason and waiting until midseason to sign. If Phillips waits until January or later, he’ll be able to more tangibly show the progress he’s made in his surgery rehab. Scouts won’t be getting a glimpse of him at 100%, of course, but it’ll show he’s well into the rehab process and give them some empirical data to compare to other pitchers when they were at the same point in their own rehab process. That could improve his earning power. Waiting until spring training could create some new suitors and/or new urgency among interested teams, too, as it’s inevitable that a handful of relievers around the game will go down with injuries this spring (as is the case every spring).

Waiting until midseason would mean going through the first several months of the year rehabbing on his own rather than with a team, but Phillips could more accurately see which clubs are postseason contenders. It’d also rule out any possibility of a qualifying offer — however slight it would be. (Had Phillips not been injured and continued on his prior trajectory, he’d have been a QO candidate; obviously, doing that over 20-30 innings post-surgery would make the chances of receiving one far smaller.) That wouldn’t be an option if he signs a one-year deal in late June or early July, as players need to spend the whole season on a major league roster/injured list in order to receive a QO.

It’s fairly rare for a reliever to receive a QO but it does happen. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the past five years, three relievers have received and rejected QOs. They are Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader and Edwin Díaz, who were all top closers when those deals were signed.

Phillips was arguably near that tier not too long ago but he would have to really dominate late in 2026 for a QO to become a real consideration after an extended surgery layoff. Still, from his perspective, he might prefer to wait to sign until the season has begun. Since he’s going to be missing the first half of the season regardless, he might as well close off the chance of a QO, even if it’s already a small one. A QO has a negative impact on a free agent’s earning power, so it’s always preferable to avoid it, if possible.

The midseason signing path would also give him more time to get fully healthy. As the season rolls along, it would also create a clearer picture of which teams need him the most due to injuries, competitiveness, and so on.

Last winter, David Robertson was a free agent but was reportedly looking for a deal with an average annual value of $10MM. When he didn’t find what he was looking for, he decided not to sign until the Phillies inked him in July, barely a week before the trade deadline. That was technically a prorated $16MM deal. Robertson only received about $6MM of that but that got him pretty close to his asking price for just a few months of work and he got to pick a club clearly in contention after the All-Star break.

That situation wasn’t exactly the same since Robertson was healthy whereas Phillips is not. However, it’s possible it plays out in a somewhat similar fashion. If Phillips doesn’t find offers to his liking in the coming months, he could just keep building strength. Presumably, interest from clubs would ramp up in kind. On the other hand, all this is contingent on Phillips avoiding setbacks. If he receives a somewhat fair offer in the coming months, he’ll have to weigh the pros and cons of turning it down to potentially try for more in the summer.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Royals Continuing To Explore Outfield Market

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The Royals entered the offseason in pursuit of two outfielders — ideally adding one apiece via free agency and trade. They accomplished that last week, signing Lane Thomas to a $5.25MM deal and bringing in Isaac Collins in a trade with Milwaukee.

Collins played mostly left field for the Brewers. He’s loosely penciled in there for now, while Thomas provides a right-handed hitting complement to Kyle Isbel and Jac Caglianone in center and right field, respectively. It’s better than it was at season’s end but still not a great group on paper. Thomas is coming off an injury-riddled season. Caglianone struggled mightily in his first 62 MLB games and could benefit from more time at Triple-A. Isbel is a glove-only center fielder, while Collins’ breakout season came as a 27-year-old rookie.

Unsurprisingly, the Royals haven’t closed the door on the possibility of adding another outfielder. Collins has plenty of minor league infield experience — mostly at second with a handful of starts at third base as well. President of baseball operations J.J. Picollo indicated that while the Royals expect him to play mostly outfield, he has enough defensive versatility for the front office to keep their options open (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com).

The switch-hitting Collins has a very patient approach. Kansas City ranked 22nd in on-base percentage (.309), and only the Rockies had a lower walk rate than their 7.2% clip. Collins provides a different skillet and generally raises the lineup’s floor, but his limited power means he doesn’t have a huge ceiling as an everyday left fielder. The Royals aren’t going to be in the market for a star outfielder in free agency, yet they’re kicking the tires on a more impactful trade possibility.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Royals could still be a factor for Jarren Duran. Rosenthal suggests that Kansas City has balked at putting star southpaw Cole Ragans in a Duran trade. Whether the Red Sox would insist on Ragans’ inclusion isn’t known, as The Athletic report indicates that Boston executives view the teams’ talks to date as preliminary.

That said, it’s clear the Red Sox are putting a lofty price on their top outfielders. Tim Healey of The Boston Globe writes that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is telling interested teams that the Sox don’t feel any pressure to trade an outfielder. They’ve taken calls on Duran and Wilyer Abreu at least dating back to the summer. Between Abreu, Duran and Roman Anthony, they have three above-average to star caliber left-handed hitting outfielders. (Anthony signed an eight-year extension in August and certainly isn’t getting traded.) Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and has the ability to play the infield, but much of his value comes from his elite center field defense.

Keeping all four players limits the Sox’s flexibility a bit. They can find at-bats for them all by rotating them through the designated hitter role and getting Rafaela occasional infield work. Boston has considered swapping one of Duran or Abreu for controllable starting pitching, though they’re less motivated to do so after acquiring Sonny Gray.

The Royals have been on the opposite end. Picollo said a few weeks ago that they were open to trading a starter for outfield help. He essentially took Ragans out of that mix, though. The 28-year-old lefty finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting two seasons ago. He missed a good chunk of ’25 battling a rotator cuff strain. He’s signed for a combined $12MM over the next two years and will be eligible for arbitration in 2028. He’s a potential ace whom the Royals control for three seasons at what’d likely be no more than $25MM in total.

“We’re in a really good spot (with rotation depth), so if the right trade comes along, and it costs us a starting pitcher, we have to look at it,” Picollo told Rogers at the Winter Meetings. “It’s just not going to be Cole. … We have to ask ourselves: Is this his max value right now? Probably not. If Cole pitches like he did in ‘24, who knows what his value is going to be? We just think right now, three years of control on a really good starting pitcher, it would have to be something crazy, something that’s like, ‘How can we pass this up?'”

Kansas City has gotten hits on controllable arms like Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Lefty Kris Bubic might be their likeliest rotation trade candidate, but he suffered a season-ending rotator cuff injury in July and is headed into his final arbitration year. No one from that group is valuable enough to headline a trade for Duran, who is coming off his third straight well above-average season. Duran is set for a $7.7MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2028.

Even if the sides can’t line up value on Duran, the Royals will evaluate other outfield possibilities. They’re also known to be searching for left-handed relief. That was more of a luxury buy around the Winter Meetings but takes on added importance after they traded Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for Collins and righty reliever Nick Mears.

Kansas City is down to Daniel Lynch IV and swingman Bailey Falter as lefty relievers on the 40-man roster. Lynch managed a 3.06 earned run average over 67 2/3 innings but did so with a well below-average 15.6% strikeout rate. There are a few one-year deal candidates available in free agency (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Caleb Ferguson, Danny Coulombe). They could also explore the trade market, with St. Louis’ JoJo Romero known to be available as he enters his final year of arbitration.

Chris Young: Rangers “Are Not Shopping Corey Seager”

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TODAY: “We are not shopping Corey Seager, I want to make that very clear,” Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said today during an interview with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM.  Reiterating many of his same statements to media from earlier in the week, Young today said the trade buzz on Seager was “a little bit overblown,” as interest from rival teams was more in the line of standard due diligence.  “Maybe they thought by trading Marcus [Semien], we’d be open on Corey….We call and check in on great players with other teams as well.  So teams are doing their job, I get it,” Young said.

DECEMBER 10: The Rangers, as they look to address several areas of need on the roster while simultaneously scaling back payroll, have received numerous calls on star shortstop Corey Seager. However, while Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News lists the Red Sox (as was reported last night), Yankees and Braves as teams that have inquired, he adds that the Rangers are not at all motivated to move Seager and haven’t had any meaningful trade talks regarding the five-time All-Star.

On the surface, it sounds like a fairly similar situation to that of Ketel Marte in Arizona. Seager, like Marte, is an MVP-caliber talent on a weighty long-term contract whose current club is hoping to walk the line of simultaneously addressing multiple roster needs and scaling back the payroll. The Rangers aren’t expressly turning teams away but also aren’t shopping Seager and would surely need multiple controllable young big leaguers who could help immediately if they were to even entertain the idea of a trade.

Seager, 32 in April, was limited to 102 games last season thanks to multiple hamstring strains but continued to produce at an elite level when on the field. He hit .271/.373/.487 last season and touts a huge .294/.372/.544 batting line in his past 1514 plate appearances as a Ranger. That’s 52% better than league-average production after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+. Seager also walked at a career-best 13% clip in 2025 and notched the second- or third-best marks of his career in average exit velocity (92.9 mph), barrel rate (15.3%) and hard-hit rate (53.6%). He also posted a career-high 16 Defensive Runs Saved, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him as a positive defender (+4) for the third time in the past four seasons.

The Rangers signed Seager to a 10-year, $325MM contract prior to the 2022 season. He’s lived up to that massive payday thus far but is still owed $186MM over the next six seasons (paid out evenly at $31MM per year). Adding that type of commitment would send the Yankees careening into the top tier of luxury penalization for a third straight season. They’re currently just shy of the third-tier cutoff ($284MM), per RosterResource. As soon as they cross that line, they’ll be subject to a 95% tax on subsequent additions and will see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by 10 places. Effectively, Seager could cost them double the remaining commitment on his contract.

It’s not quite so extreme in Boston, where the Red Sox are about $20MM shy of the first luxury tier. Seager would push them into the first tier for a second straight season. They’d owe a 30% tax on the roughly $11MM of Seager’s contract that clocks in beyond that first penalty line. Once they’re more than $20MM over the limit, that’d jump to 42%. Crossing the threshold by more than $40MM would push the Red Sox’ top draft pick back 10 spots and bump the tax on subsequent additions to 72.5%.

The Braves are currently the furthest of this group from the luxury tax threshold, sitting about $33MM shy on RosterResource’s projections. They could technically add Seager without hitting the tax line, though acquiring him would effectively signal a willingness to pay the tax, as they’d be about $2MM away from the first-tier cutoff and have several other acquisitions they’d like to make. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that Atlanta is one of eight teams on Seager’s limited no-trade list. That only further reduces the likelihood of a deal. Seager will gain full no-trade protection after the 2026 season, by virtue of 10-and-5 rights.

It’s still not entirely clear what type of payroll figure Rangers ownership has in mind. Texas currently projects for a payroll around $169MM, which is about $47MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. They’re looking for help behind the plate, at first base and on the pitching staff. That’s a lot of boxes to check, clearly, but there should be at least some room for modest spending. There are also various trade avenues to explore that don’t involve shipping out their best all-around position player (or one of their best but expensive arms like Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi, for that matter).

It’s of at least moderate note that Texas didn’t outright dismiss the possibility of trading Seager, but it’s more notable that they’re not digging deeply into the possibility. If one of the interested parties presents a compelling enough offer, perhaps the Rangers would ponder such a switch, but this appears to be a very different scenario than, say, the Cardinals — a rebuilding club with motivation to shed several veteran contracts and a willingness to pay down some of that salary. Seager’s name may well continue to surface in rumors, just as we’ve seen with Marte in Arizona or Tarik Skubal in Detroit, but that doesn’t mean he’s all that available or that the Rangers are eager to deal him.

Chris Martin Planning To Pitch In 2026

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In September 2024, Chris Martin said that he was “95%” sure that 2025 would be his final season before retirement.  It appears as that five percent chance of a return has now grown into a reality, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that Martin is planning to return in 2026 for his 11th MLB season.  The Red Sox have interest in Martin for what would be a return engagement between the two sides, as Martin pitched for Boston during the 2023-24 seasons.

Martin spent the 2025 season with the Rangers on a one-year, $5.5MM deal, and the fact that the Arlington native turned down larger offers from the Red Sox and other teams to join the Rangers only added to the narrative of what seemed to be a farewell season.  The right-hander delivered yet another strong season, posting a 2.98 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 42 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen.

For the second straight season, Martin made multiple trips to the injured list.  The righty missed time due to right shoulder fatigue, a left calf strain, and (most troublingly) thoracic outlet syndrome, with the TOS diagnosis emerging in September.  Since the assumption was that Martin was retiring, there wasn’t any word on whether or not Martin underwent TOS surgery, but it would appear he is foregoing the procedure or his diagnosis wasn’t serious enough to require surgery.

Between the TOS situation, Martin’s other recent injuries, or the simple fact that he turns 40 in June, there is certainly some question about whether Martin can continue to defy Father Time.  That said, Martin is still one of baseball’s best control pitchers and he is still getting strong results, so it makes sense that he would still want to keep playing as long as he still has gas in the tank.

Since he pitched for the Red Sox so recently, Boston has plenty of direct knowledge of Martin’s health, and the team is therefore ideally suited to perhaps manage Martin’s usage in order to keep him as healthy as possible in 2026.  A one-year deal for Martin on a modest salary wouldn’t represent much of a risk for the Red Sox, and the upside is high if Martin can stay off the IL and keep posting his usual numbers.  The Sox are known to be looking for experienced bullpen help, and Cotillo reported yesterday that other former Boston hurler Justin Wilson is another reunion candidate, plus left-hander Danny Coulombe drawing interest.

Latest On Michael King’s Free Agency

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1:35pm: The Boston Globe’s initial report has been clarified to note that, while the Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles are among the teams King is considering, there are no finalists for his services at this point.

1:11pm: Right-hander Michael King has narrowed his search for a new team to three options, according to a report from Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Those teams are the Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles. Additionally, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Rhode Island native and Boston College alum has “strong interest” in playing for Boston. Abraham notes that King would like to make a decision on his destination soon.

King, 30 has been among the league’s most widely sought-after starters this winter. He’s been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Marlins, Angels, and Blue Jays in addition to the three apparent finalists for his services, and it’s not hard to see why the right-hander would garner such widespread interest. The 30-year-old flashed significant upside during his 2024 season with the Padres, when he pitched to a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work with a 3.33 FIP and a 27.7% strikeout rate. That was a strong enough performance to earn him a seventh-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, which was his first as a full-time starter.

The right-hander seemingly appeared to be lined up for a massive payday heading into his platform season of 2025, but injuries complicated things this past year. King was limited to just 15 starts by a nerve issue in his shoulder (as well as a less significant knee injury late in the year), and while he dominated to the tune of a 2.59 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and a 28.4% strikeout rate in ten appearances prior to the shoulder injury, he didn’t look quite the same after returning with a 6.11 ERA and a 14.5% strikeout rate a 10.8% walk rate across his final five appearances in the regular season.

King moved to the bullpen for San Diego’s Wild Card series against the Cubs and looked more like himself as he struck out the side on 19 pitches in a scoreless inning of work, but headed into the offseason his second half struggles and significant injury woes left cause for concern as he entered free agency. He received a qualifying offer from the Padres, a positive sign that the club didn’t see King’s injuries as too concerning for the 2026 campaign, and declined it in order to pursue a multi-year pact in free agency.

Looking at the three teams still in the running for King’s services, the Orioles stand out as the team with the biggest need in their rotation. The club is coming off a deeply disappointing 2025 campaign where their decision to eschew high-end arms in free agency came back to bite them, as rolls of the dice on Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano failed to bear fruit while Zach Eflin took a big step back from his previous work with the Rays. While Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers could plausibly form an exciting front-of-the-rotation duo for the Orioles next year, adding at least one proven, playoff-caliber starter to the mix has been the team’s clear priority this winter.

King would certainly fit that mold if healthy, and likely could do so without breaking the bank and requiring Baltimore to commit to a second nine-figure contract this winter after they signed Pete Alonso last week. MLBTR predicted King to land a four-year, $80MM contract as the #14 ranked free agent in this offseason. Of course, with top-of-the-rotation upside and an expected contract price tag and length that falls below that of your typical front-end starter, there’s plenty of room for a more opportunistic team to get involved.

That’s likely where the Red Sox come in, given that Boston is incredibly deep in pitching talent as it is. Garrett Crochet leads a rotation that figures to also include Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello at the front end, with players like Johan Oviedo, Patrick Sandoval, and Connelly Early in the mix for the final spots as things stand. Kutter Crawford, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison, and Hunter Dobbins are among the pitchers who figure to serve as depth for the Red Sox this year, an embarrassment of riches that make adding a starter in free agency more of a luxury than a necessity.

Even so, landing King on a deal that the Red Sox perceive as good value would still make sense, as it could free them up to more fully explore trades involving some of their young pitching talent. Boston has already been connected to Ketel Marte, Willson Contreras, and Isaac Paredes on the free agent market as they search for help on offense this winter, and perhaps signing King and trading from their pitching depth to land one of those big names could be more attractive as an option than taking a swing on one of the big bats still available in free agency.

As for the Yankees, a reunion with the team King spent the first five years of his MLB career with splits the difference between the extremes Baltimore and Boston represent. New York isn’t in desperate need of a front-of-the-rotation ace with Max Fried already in place and Gerrit Cole expected back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year, but their rotation could certainly use additional depth. Cole and Carlos Rodon are both not expected to be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign, while Clarke Schmidt figures to miss most if not all of next year.

That leaves the Yankees with an Opening Day rotation of Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren, and Allan Winans. Given Winans’s lack of MLB experience and Gil’s significant injury history, there’s certainly room for another quality starter in the Yankees’ rotation mix even if they don’t necessarily need one with the same level of upside that King offers. Even so, King was a popular player during his time with the Bronx and well-liked within the organization. Between the potential value to be had on King’s contract and his past connection to the club, it’s hardly a surprise that New York would get involved in his market as they survey the offseason landscape for rotation help.

Royals Exploring CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jarren Duran In Trade Talks

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The Royals have had discussions with the Nationals about shortstop CJ Abrams and left-hander MacKenzie Gore, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  Jarren Duran also continues to be a player of interest, as Passan writes that Kansas City is still considering the Red Sox outfielder after first being linked to Duran’s market prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

It is no secret that the Royals are looking to improve what has been arguably baseball’s least-productive outfield over the last couple of years.  Between Boston’s crowded outfield and Kansas City’s numerous rotation options, the two teams seem like natural and logical trade partners, especially given how the Red Sox have continued to pursue starting pitching even after landing both Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.  Likewise, the Royals have added Lane Thomas to their outfield mix, yet an everyday starter like Duran would be a much more clearcut upgrade.

Acquiring Gore would represent a fascinating pivot for K.C., and perhaps a step in a somewhat more convoluted path to obtaining outfielders.  Gore would only add to the Royals’ rotation surplus, yet with Gore now in the mix as a front-of-the-rotation arm, Kansas City could be more open to sending a pitcher like Cole Ragans to the Red Sox in a hypothetical Duran deal.  Ragans has been cited as perhaps the most logical fit for Duran, as Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo both recently signed extensions with the Royals, Kris Bubic is only a year removed from free agency, and the Royals’ array of younger arms might not quite move the needle enough to pry Duran (who is team-controlled through the 2028 season) out of Fenway Park.

Perhaps complicating this idea is the fact that the Red Sox almost surely have interest in Gore themselves.  While the Sox haven’t been publicly linked to Gore’s market to date, their desire for frontline pitching and the fact that former Sox executive Paul Toboni is now Washington’s president of baseball operations makes it easy to connect the dots.  The Nationals have gotten so much interest in Gore that Toboni undoubtedly has plenty of creative offers to consider, and there still isn’t any direct urgency to deal Gore since he is under arbitration control through 2027.

Toboni’s hiring represented a fresh start for a rebuild that seemed to have stalled out under former Nationals PBO Mike Rizzo.  Washington hasn’t had a winning season since its 2019 World Series title year, yet even with impatience growing amongst District fans, the sense is that Toboni is more focused on adding more young talent than trying to contend.  That could mean dealing away such top players (and trade chips) like Gore and Abrams, who were supposed to be cornerstones of the rebuild process when acquired in the 2022 Juan Soto trade.

Abrams is controlled through the 2028 season, so the Nationals have even less reason to trade the shortstop immediately than Gore.  The Royals’ younger pitchers or more longer-term minor league prospects would likely have more appeal to the Nats than to a win-now team like the Red Sox, but Kansas City would have to pay a hefty price to extract Abrams given his team control and All-Star ceiling.

With that ceiling, however, comes a low floor.  The last two seasons have seen Abrams excel in the first half only to tail off badly after the All-Star break.  The lack of consistency also extends to Abrams’ splits, as the left-handed batter hasn’t been very productive against left-handed pitching.  Defensively, Abrams is a mixed bag at best — the Outs Above Average metric has long hated his work at shortstop, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric has been more positive in general but graded Abrams as a -6 in 2025.

A move to second base might be in Abrams’ future anyway, and that would work for a Royals team that already has Bobby Witt Jr. entrenched at shortstop.  Jonathan India is the incumbent at second base after K.C. agreed to a one-year, $8MM salary with India for 2026, which came as something of a surprise since India’s unimpressive 2025 season had made him a non-tender candidate.  In the event that Abrams did land in Kansas City, the Royals could look to trade India or just relegate him to bench duty, as inefficient as that would be for a team with a limited payroll.

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