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Red Sox, Raimel Tapia Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with Raimel Tapia, as the free agent outfielder himself first indicated on Instagram. It’s a minor league deal for Tapia, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll be invited to the major league side of Sox camp and can make $2 million with some additional performance bonuses if he cracks the MLB roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Tapia is repped by Dream One Sports Group.

Tapia, 29 next month, joins the third organization of his professional career. The speedster first signed with the Rockies as an amateur from the Dominican Republic over the 2010-11 international period. A few years later, Tapia emerged as one of the sport’s more promising prospects. Evaluators praised his athleticism and bat-to-ball skills and suggested he could develop into a prototypical top-of-the-lineup sparkplug for Colorado.

The left-handed hitter got to the majors in 2016 but saw sporadic action for his first three seasons. He finally landed everyday playing time during the 2019 campaign and was a lineup regular for the next three years. Tapia indeed showed quality contact skills and speed at the MLB level, though he never consistently produced offensively. He owns a very aggressive approach and doesn’t have significant power, leading to an overall profile that’s heavily reliant on singles falling into play.

Tapia hit .280/.325/.395 in a little more than 1400 trips to the plate through the end of the 2021 season. Last spring, Colorado dealt Tapia to the Blue Jays for Randal Grichuk. The move balanced each club’s respective lineup, but neither player performed at a high level in 2022. Tapia posted a .265/.292/.380 line with seven home runs through 433 plate appearances, keeping his strikeouts at a modest 18.7% clip but drawing free passes less than 4% of the time he came to the plate. At season’s end, the Jays non-tendered him rather than retain him via arbitration on a salary that was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $5.2MM.

Over the course of his career, Tapia has suited up at all three outfield positions. The vast majority of his work has come in left field, where public metrics have pegged him as a roughly average defender. Tapia has rated reasonably well in a little over 400 career innings in center but never got much run there in deference to Charlie Blackmon and George Springer, respectively.

The Red Sox have looked to stockpile up-the-middle options in the wake of Xander Bogaerts’ free agent departure and Trevor Story’s injury. The free agent center field market is extremely thin at this stage of the offseason, leaving teams to sort through imperfect defensive fits or glove-first depth players. Boston agreed to a one-year deal with Adam Duvall yesterday, adding a right-handed bat to the mix. Tapia joins Jarren Duran as a left-handed option in the center field mix, though he’ll need to earn his way onto the roster with a strong spring showing.

Details On 2022 Team Payrolls

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The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.

New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.

The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.

As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.

A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.

On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.

Red Sox Have Received “Significant” Interest In Tanner Houck

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Demand for controllable starting pitching is, as always, through the roof in Major League Baseball, but it’s in perhaps shorter supply than at any point in recent years. The Marlins are one of the few teams with starting pitching available on the trade market, as they’re reportedly open to offers on just about anyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Perez. Other options are few and far between, though Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes that the Red Sox have received “significant” trade interest in righty Tanner Houck as teams explore alternatives to Miami’s starting pitching glut.

That’s not to say that a deal of Houck is expected or likely. Houck doesn’t have a definite role on Boston’s starting staff thanks to the presence of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello, but the injury risk among that group means that Houck can’t be expressly ruled out of the running, either. Sale has pitched just 48 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, and Paxton has just 21 2/3 frames across the past three MLB seasons combined. Kluber rebounded with 164 innings in 2022 but prior to that had thrown just 116 2/3 innings over a three-year period himself.

Moreover, the 26-year-old Houck could yet find himself with a pivotal role in Boston’s bullpen after impressing as a reliever in 2022. Just four of Houck’s 32 appearances last year were starts; he tossed 43 1/3 innings out of the Red Sox’ bullpen and worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 53% grounder rate. Overall, the former No. 24 overall draft pick logged a 3.15 ERA in 60 innings between his two roles, showing roughly average strikeout rates with slightly below-average command but above-average ground-ball tendencies.

It was the continuation of a strong start to Houck’s still-fledgling career. The hard-throwing righty made his debut when he started three games in the shortened 2020 season, and overall he’s pitched 146 innings of 3.02 ERA ball at the MLB level. However, he’s never topped 119 innings in a professional season, and his 2022 campaign ended in August when he required surgery to address a back injury.

Prior to his big league debut, Houck had some struggles against left-handed opponents, although he’s worked to incorporate a splitter, which has helped to remedy that issue. A hefty 89% of the splitters Houck has thrown over the past two seasons have come against left-handed batters, and in his career opponents have mustered an awful .115/.207/.231 output against the pitch.

Houck is controlled for another five seasons and won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 campaign. As such, it’s only natural that opposing teams would inquire about his availability. That doesn’t necessarily mean a trade is looming, although the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported just two weeks ago that the Red Sox were open to dealing a big league pitcher — “potentially including Houck” — in the right deal. Cotillo, meanwhile, adds that the Sox would be more willing to part with Houck than either Whitlock or Bello, although again, that’s a far cry from saying Houck is someone the Sox are looking to move. That Speier report came before it was publicly known that Trevor Story’s entire 2023 season was in jeopardy following an elbow injury that necessitated internal brace surgery.

In the weeks since that report from Speier, the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Adam Duvall, whom they believe can handle center field for them, and brought in veterans like outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Jorge Alfaro on minor league deals. The Red Sox aren’t punting on the 2023 season in the wake of Story’s injury — not after already signing Kluber, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez for a combined $173.2MM.

As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.

Potential areas for improvement on the big league roster include the middle infield, where Enrique Hernandez and Christian Arroyo figure to play prominent roles following Story’s injury, and behind the plate, where the combination of Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Alfaro could all vie for time. It’s feasible, too, that the Sox could still pursue a long-term option in center field, although those are also in short supply this winter and the addition of Duvall at least ostensibly lessens such a need.

For now, it seems the Sox plan to head to camp with the idea of Houck stretching out as a starter, then scale him back to a short relief role if necessary. That said, given the dearth of options for teams seeking rotation help on the trade market, this probably won’t be the last time Houck’s name pops up on the rumor mill in the weeks leading up to Spring Training. There’s no indication a deal is likely, but other teams will surely make efforts to pry Houck and others loose — particularly now that a major injury to Story has altered Boston’s 2023 outlook.

Red Sox Interested In Josh Harrison

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The Red Sox have been looking for ways to bolster their roster and have infielder Josh Harrison “on their radar,” reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

This item from Heyman came out before the Sox reached an agreement with Adam Duvall, but that move likely doesn’t do much to dampen their interest in Harrison. With Duvall taking some time in center field, that could theoretically move Enrique Hernández into a middle infield role, but they would likely still have a need for someone like Harrison. Just recently, when speaking about the club’s need to add a couple of up-the-middle players, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said it “doesn’t even need to be limited to two.”

There were a few reasons why the Sox needed to look for so much help up the middle. Xander Bogaerts, the club’s shortstop of many years, opted out of his contract and signed with the Padres. The hope in Boston was that Trevor Story, who played second base last year in deference to Bogaerts, could slide over to the other side of the bag this year. But while ramping up for the season ahead, he experienced some pain in his arm and ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John. He’s now set to miss most or perhaps all of the 2023 season.

That left the club with limited options for the middle infield and center field. Hernández and Christian Arroyo could have perhaps combined in the middle infield, though both players have fairly limited experience at shortstop. Arroyo has just 172 1/3 big league innings there, spending much more time at second and third base. Hernández has logged 618 innings at short but scattered over the past nine seasons, never reaching 160 in any individual campaign. That scenario would also leave Jarren Duran as the everyday center fielder and the catching duties in the hands of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. Aside from Hernández, none of those options have truly established themselves as everyday players in the big leagues, leaving Boston with one solid choice for four positions. That makes it plenty sensible that they’d look for fortifications in the form of multiple players.

Since the news of Story’s injury, the club has added Jorge Alfaro on a minor league deal to help behind the plate and the aforementioned Duvall signing gives them an extra option in center field. The latter signing seems to point to Hernández spending more time on the dirt but they could further bolster their infield by adding Harrison. The 35-year-old spent his prime with the Pirates but has since gone into journeyman mode, jumping to the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and White Sox over the past four seasons.

With Chicago last year, he got into 119 games, providing his usual blend of low power and high contact. He hit just seven home runs on the year and only walked in 4.9% of his trips to the plate, but he also went down on strikes just 16.7% of the time. He finished the year with a batting line of .256/.317/.370 for a wRC+ of 98, just two ticks below league average. Defensively, Harrison played mostly second base but also occasionally played third base, left field and shortstop. He’s likely not viewed as a solution at that latter position since he only spent three innings there last year and just 265 in his career, with most of that coming way back in 2012. His work at second and third is generally graded well though, and he can take an outfield position in an emergency.

A signing of Harrison would likely require the Red Sox to view Hernández as a viable solution at shortstop. Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote back in December that there are some in the organization who indeed see him that way. As mentioned earlier, he’s logged some decent innings there in the aggregate but hasn’t spent an extended stretch at the position. That makes it hard to gauge how he’d fare on a full-time basis, but for what it’s worth, advanced defensive metrics don’t make it seem like an outlandish idea. He’s earned nine Defensive Runs Saved over his 618 career innings and a 5.3 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average has given him a -3.

The Sox have also expressed some interest in a more straightforward shortstop solution in the form of Elvis Andrus. He’s never played anywhere else except short and could simply kick Hernández over to second base where’s spent 1717 innings in his career, almost three times as much as his work at short. Since Andrus can play shortstop, he’ll likely require a slightly higher financial investment than Harrison, so the Sox would have to decide whether it’s worth the extra few dollars to get the more obvious fit or try to save a few bucks in order to try the more creative route and give Hernández a shot at the job. The latter path would be fairly risky, since Duvall also isn’t a proven option in center field. He only has 593 2/3 innings that that spot in his career, all of that coming in the past three years. Signing Harrison to play second would mean the Sox are committing to unproven options at shortstop and center, both considered to be premium defensive positions.

The agreement with Duvall pushes Boston’s competitive balance tax calculation to $216MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. That leaves the club with some wiggle room before they reach the $233MM luxury tax threshold, which they probably would like to stay under after just barely going over last year. They could certainly fit in a contract for either Andrus or Harrison while staying under the line, but they probably want to earmark some funds for some more pitching and midseason acquisitions. Other free agents who could help in the middle infield include José Iglesias, César Hernández and Didi Gregorius.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Adam Duvall

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The Red Sox are among the teams pursuing free-agent outfielder Adam Duvall, as first reported by Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that a resolution on Duvall’s free agency, be it him signing with the Sox or another club, could come as soon as this week. The Red Sox, Cotillo adds, view Duvall as “plenty capable” of playing center field.

Slotting Duvall into the center field mix alongside left-handed-hitting Jarren Duran would allow Boston to shift Enrique Hernandez back to the middle infield, in the wake of Trevor Story’s recent elbow surgery. Duvall doesn’t have pronounced platoon splits — he draws slightly more walks against lefties but hits for similar power and has an identical .230 average against lefties and righties — so it’s possible that he could even be thrust into center field on a regular basis, if the Sox are comfortable with the defensive component of that fit.

Duvall, 34, has elite defensive grades in left field in his career but has just 593 innings in center field — most of which came with the Braves over the past two seasons. He’s fared well there, too, logging four Defensive Runs Saved and five Outs Above Average in that limited time.

With the bat, Duvall has clear plus power, but he’s never gotten on base much and has also grown increasingly strikeout-prone in recent years (30.4% over the past four seasons). His 2022 season was cut short by a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, leaving him with an ugly .213/.276/.401 batting line and a dozen homers in 315 trips to the plate. Duvall smashed 38 home runs as recently as 2021, but that was accompanied by his typical blend of low average and OBP marks; in 555 plate appearances for Atlanta in ’21, Duvall hit .228/.281/.491.

That’s par for course for Duvall, a career .230/.289/.465 hitter who has thrice topped 30 home runs in a given season and also has a 2021 Gold Glove Award under his belt. If he’s back to full strength last year’s season-ending wrist surgery, he could give the Red Sox a much-needed right-handed bat in a lineup where only Hernandez, Justin Turner and Christian Arroyo project for regular reps. Bench options like Bobby Dalbec and Rob Refsnyder could give Boston some additional righty bats on days they face a left-handed starter.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said last week that following Story’s injury, he’d likely seek multiple up-the-middle additions to the lineup. Duvall, assuming he plays center field, could fit that billing, but the Sox would likely still have other additions in store. Boston was also connected to former Rangers, A’s and White Sox infielder Elvis Andrus over the weekend. Boston currently projects to have a payroll of about $183.5MM next season and has a bit more than $209MM in luxury-tax obligations on the books — both of which are well shy of last year’s totals.

Red Sox Trade Connor Seabold To Rockies

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11:47am: The Rockies have announced the trade.

11:28am: The Rockies have acquired right-hander Connor Seabold from the Red Sox in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). Boston designated Seabold for assignment last week when finalizing their deal with free-agent starter Corey Kluber. The Rockies had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding transaction won’t be required.

Seabold, 26, was a mildly surprising DFA by the Red Sox, if only due to his recent status as one of the organization’s more promising pitching prospects. There are pronounced durability concerns about the right-hander, however, due in no small part to elbow trouble in 2021 and a forearm strain in 2022. Seabold has just 364 professional innings since being drafted back in 2017 — that modest total coming despite his status as a starting pitcher.

As far as his Major League work is concerned, Seabold has yet to find success. He’s tallied just 21 1/3 innings in the Majors, all with the Red Sox, and he’s been tagged for 25 runs in that time. Things have gone more smoothly in Triple-A, where Seabold pitched well as recently as this past season: 86 1/3 innings, 3.32 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate.

Despite concerns about his ability to stay on the field and a shaky MLB performance to date, Seabold is more or less a big league-ready arm who’ll give the Rockies some depth on the pitching staff, if not a player who could legitimately vie for a starting job this spring. Colorado’s rotation will be without Antonio Senzatela to begin the season, due to the righty’s ACL tear late last year, and the staff has little certainty beyond righty German Marquez and lefty Kyle Freeland (both of whom are looking for a rebound performance anyhow). Jose Urena, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber are the ostensible front-runners, but each posted an ERA north of 5.00 in 2022.

Seabold also has a minor league option year remaining, so if he doesn’t win a job out of camp, he can still be sent to the minors without first needing to clear waivers.

Travis Shaw Announces Retirement

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Former MLB infielder Travis Shaw took to Twitter on Monday to announce his retirement from playing. The left-handed hitter appeared at the game’s highest level in each of the last eight seasons.

“For the last eight years, I’ve been blessed to live out my childhood dreams of playing Major League Baseball,” Shaw wrote. “But today, that dream comes to an end! 12 years ago, being a 9th-round pick, I would never have imagined what this game provided me. The memories will last a lifetime. To everyone that made an impact on my career (the list is endlessly long), I will forever be indebted to you! As this chapter closes, the only two words that come to mind is THANK YOU!”

As Shaw mentioned, he entered the professional ranks as a ninth-round pick in 2011. Selected by the Red Sox out of Kent State, he signed for $110K. Within a couple seasons, he began to appear at the back half of Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in the Boston system. He hit well in the minors and debuted at age 25 in May 2015. He hit the ground running over 65 games as a rookie, putting together a .270/.327/.487 line with 13 home runs.

That earned Shaw an extended look on Boston’s 2016 squad. Pablo Sandoval missed most of that season with shoulder surgery, freeing up the hot corner for Shaw. He didn’t quite maintain his rookie form, posting a .242/.306/.421 line through 530 plate appearances. The following winter, the Sox dealt Shaw to Milwaukee for reliever Tyler Thornburg.

The move panned out for the Brew Crew, who immediately installed Shaw as their primary third baseman. He took well to Milwaukee’s favorable hitting environment, topping 30 home runs in each of his first two seasons. He combined for 63 longballs between 2017-18, putting together a cumulative .258/.347/.498 line with a very strong 11.6% walk percentage. Shaw played in just over half the team’s games in 2019 but saw his production fall to a .157/.281/.270 mark.

From that point forward, Shaw settled in as a depth corner infielder and bench bat. He played the shortened 2020 season with the Blue Jays before returning to Milwaukee for the start of 2021. After struggling in his second stint with the Brewers, he landed back in Boston via release waivers. Shaw found a brief glimpse of peak form in 28 games for the Sox late in the ’21 campaign. He re-signed on a minor league deal during the lockout and made the Opening Day roster. Shaw played in seven games early last season but didn’t reach base in 19 plate appearances. After going unclaimed on waivers, he hit free agency last May and doesn’t plan to seek out other opportunities.

Shaw played in 733 major league games. He tallied just under 2700 plate appearances and hit .237/.319/.437 with 114 homers, 127 doubles, 366 runs batted in and 310 runs scored. Shaw had the aforementioned two 30-homer campaigns and twice eclipsed 30 doubles. His career offensive production checked in right around league average, as measured by wRC+. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference valued Shaw’s career around eight wins above replacement, with much of that value concentrated in his strong first two seasons in Milwaukee. MLBTR congratulates Shaw on a fine playing career and wishes him the best in retirement.

Red Sox, Jorge Alfaro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with free agent backstop Jorge Alfaro on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster and would have the ability to opt out and return to free agency on both June 1 and July 1 if he hasn’t yet been called up.

Alfaro, 29, has played in each of the last seven big league campaigns. A top prospect in the Rangers’ and Phillies’ farm systems, he went from Texas to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels deadline blockbuster in 2015. Alfaro debuted with Philadelphia in 2016 and would spend parts of the following two seasons as their primary catcher. He flashed the massive power and arm strength that had made him such a highly-regarded minor league talent but struck out in 35.2% of his plate appearances as a Phillie.

After the 2018 season, Philadelphia packaged him with Sixto Sánchez to the division-rival Marlins for J.T. Realmuto. Miami had hoped Alfaro would step in as a big league ready replacement for their outgoing star catcher. Alfaro was their primary catcher for the next three seasons but continued to perform at an inconsistent level, largely thanks to his strikeout issues.

The Padres took a shot on the Colombian-born player in a minor trade last offseason. Alfaro cracked the Opening Day roster after a massive Spring Training and went on to appear in just over half the team’s games. He tallied 274 plate appearances, hitting .246/.285/.383 with seven home runs and a 35.8% strikeout percentage. At season’s end, San Diego non-tendered him rather than retain him for a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary.

In a little under 500 MLB games, Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter. He’s picked up 47 homers and made plenty of hard contact. His on-base numbers have been muted by his subpar strikeout and walk profile, though, as he’s drawn free passes 4.2% of the time while fanning in over 34% of his trips. It’s been a somewhat similar boom or bust profile defensively. Alfaro has a top-tier throwing arm and has cut down a solid 27.5% of attempted basestealers throughout his career. Yet he’s also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall receiver, per the metrics at Statcast and Baseball Prospectus.

While Alfaro’s overall body of work has been up and down, he represents a low-risk upside play for a Boston club that has an uncertain catching mix. Reese McGuire and Connor Wong currently look set for a loose platoon arrangement behind the dish. They’re the only backstops on the Red Sox’s 40-man roster, and neither has an extended track record as an MLB regular. Alfaro’s an experienced depth option who can battle for a job in Spring Training and/or start the season at Triple-A Worcester as injury insurance.

Alfaro has over five years of major league service time, meaning he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point, Boston will either have to keep him in the majors or make him available to other clubs via trade or waivers. If Alfaro spends 89 days on the MLB active roster or injured list next season, he’d surpass the six-year service threshold and qualify for free agency next offseason. If he’s on the roster for 88 days or fewer overall but on the 40-man at season’s end, he’d be eligible for arbitration for the 2024 campaign.

Red Sox Interested In Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus

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The Red Sox were known to be looking for middle infield help even before news broke earlier this week about Trevor Story’s internal brace surgery on his right elbow, which could keep the shortstop on the injured list for most (or potentially all) of the 2023 season.  In the wake of Story’s surgery, two names have surfaced on Boston’s radar, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Sox have interest in both Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus.

In terms of being a replacement for Story at shortstop, Andrus is the cleaner fit, as the veteran could simply step right into a regular shortstop role.  Apart from 25 games as a DH, Andrus has exclusively played shortstop in the other 1914 games of his 14-year Major League career.  Public defensive metrics are a little mixed on Andrus’ glovework (+4.7 UZR/150 and +3 Outs Above Average in 2022, countered by a -4 Defensive Runs Saved score), but all in all, Andrus still looks like he can provide at least acceptable defense even at age 34.

At the plate, Andrus has been inconsistent at best over his career, but he did enjoy a lot of success in a late-season cameo with the White Sox in 2022.  Released by the A’s in August, Chicago signed Andrus as a replacement for the injured Tim Anderson, and Andrus responded with a very solid .271/.309/.464 slash line and nine home runs over 191 plate appearances with the Pale Hose.  His overall 105 wRC+ for the season and his 3.5 fWAR were Andrus’ highest totals in either category since 2017, and his 17 homers was the second-highest total of his career.

Despite this nice performance, there hasn’t been much buzz about Andrus on the open market this winter, as teams are perhaps more focused on Andrus’ age, his ability to replicate his 2022 numbers, and his more unspectacular recent track record before last season — Andrus accumulated a modest 4.3 fWAR combined from 2018-21.  Still, there was some speculation that Andrus’ market wouldn’t really pick up until the “big four” free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson) were off the board, and teams still in need of shortstop help could turn to Andrus as more of a stop-gap option.

The Red Sox technically fit this description given their loss of Bogaerts, and Boston had shown at least some level of interest in such infield trade targets as Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, Joey Wendle, and (before he was dealt from the Marlins to the Dodgers) Miguel Rojas.  All of these players would’ve been eyed for the shortstop job, as the Sox could’ve then stuck to their initial plan of using Enrique Hernandez mostly in center field, or at least as a player who could be bounced around the diamond rather than someone primarily locked into a shortstop role.

Profar’s addition would create some lineup shuffling, and likely result in Hernandez getting more time at short.  Profar hasn’t played shortstop since 2018, and while he was once a multi-position type, 2022 marked the first time that Profar played exclusively at one position, as the Padres deployed him only as a left fielder.  The newly-signed Masataka Yoshida has already been tabbed for left field duty in Fenway Park, so the Red Sox could move Profar (who turns 30 in February) around to the other outfield positions, or possibly second or first base.

MLBTR projected Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal this winter, and the Yankees and Astros have both shown some interest in his services at various times this winter.  Two weeks ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down Profar’s potential market and some teams that might emerge as fits, though the Red Sox weren’t cited due to the assumption that Yoshida had filled the outfield need.  Of course, injuries can instantly bring new teams into the mix, and Profar’s market could further expand if teams do see him as a candidate for positions beyond only left field.

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