Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs
Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.
Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…
- The offseason for Cardinals‘ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
- While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams
The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.
With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.
While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.
As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.
Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro
Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.
A few more early notes on the free agent market…
- Jay Bruce‘s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
- Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki‘s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]
Cubs
The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Cardinals
The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn. Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Royals
The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient. If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round. For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.
Rays
The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians. However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation. The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round. If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.
Rockies
The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians. Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency. If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round. If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.
Indians
The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies. Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.
So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76. The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.
Outrighted: Twins, Phillies, Rays, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers, Pirates
A variety of teams cleared 40-man space today. Some of the moves are reflected elsewhere on the site, but we’ll round up the others right here:
- The Twins have outrighted catcher Chris Gimenez and left Ryan O’Rourke, as MLB.com’ Rhett Bollinger tweets. Gimenez could have been retained for a projected $1MM arbitration salary, but Minnesota elected not to commit that much cash (and a roster spot) despite Gimenez’s 225 plate appearances of roughly league-average hitting in 2017. He tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer that he’ll likely elect to return to the open market, but would be open to a return (links to Twitter). As for O’Rourke, he was said to be exploring ways of hastening his return from Tommy John surgery, but Minnesota isn’t willing to gamble on the lefty’s recovery at this time.
- Infielder Pedro Florimon and righty Jesen Therrien are now free agents after being outrighted off of the Phillies 40-man, per a club announcement. The 30-year-old Florimon has made his way onto a major league roster in each of the past seven seasons, compiling a .209/.269/.308 slash in 791 plate appearances but providing enough with the glove to keep earning return trips. The 24-year-old Therrien was knocked around in 15 relief appearances for the Phils this year, but did turn in 57 1/3 frames of 1.41 ERA ball (with 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9) during his time in the upper minors.
- The Rays outrighted catcher Curt Casali, outfielder Cesar Puello, and righty Shawn Tolleson, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Casali played a bigger role on the 2016 MLB outfit and posted only a .698 OPS at Triple-A. The 26-year-old Puello has bounced around of late and struggled in a brief go at the bigs, but did manage a productive .327/.377/.526 slash in 379 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors (none of which came with a Tampa Bay affiliate). Tolleson required Tommy John surgery in May, so he’ll likely be looking for an organization to rehab with.
- Departing the Cardinals‘ 40-man were infielder Alex Mejia and catcher Alberto Rosario, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). Mejia struggled mightily in the bigs as a 26-year-old rookie, but slashed .291/.341/.413 in his 475 plate appearances in the upper minors. As for Rosario, who is thirty years of age, there just hasn’t been much opportunity for time behind the MLB plate.
- Backstop Hector Sanchez and righty Tim Melville took free agency from the Padres after clearing outright waivers, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (Twitter link). Sanchez, a 28-year-old switch-hitter who has seen action in each of the past seven MLB seasons, will surely be targeted as a depth acquisition by other organizations. Melville, who’s also 28, worked to a 2.95 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 76 1/3 Triple-A innings — his best results in the minors — but was bombed in brief MLB time.
- The Dodgers outrighted first baseman/outfielder O’Koyea Dickson, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Dickson, 27, briefly touched the majors in 2017 but spent the bulk of his time at Triple-A for the third-straight season. After putting up big numbers there in 2016, Dickson managed a career-best 24 home runs over 458 plate appearances in his most recent campaign, but slipped to a .328 on-base percentage.
- Finally, the Pirates outrighted lefty Dan Runzler, MLB.com’s Adam Berry reports on Twitter. He’ll head back to free agency after refusing an assignment. Runzler, 32, made it back to the majors after a four-year absence, but only saw four innings in eight appearances. He pitched to a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 Triple-A innings, managing only 7.8 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 but also generating typically strong groundball numbers.
Cardinals To Issue Qualifying Offer To Lance Lynn
The Cardinals will issue a qualifying offer to righty Lance Lynn, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. He’ll have ten days to weigh the $17.4MM offer.
Expectations long have been that Lynn would receive a QO from the Cards — and that he’d ultimately reject it. We’ll have to wait a while to learn his decision, but given his apparent expectations in free agency it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll choose to hit the open market.
Lynn’s decision is eased by the new rules governing the qualifying offer. Teams weighing a signing won’t need to worry about punting a first-round pick, as would have been the case in prior years. The hope and expectation is that the rule change will tamp down on the market difficulties faced by some non-star veterans in the past.
As we discussed in our ranking of the top fifty free agents, Lynn figures to land one of the ten largest contracts of the winter. But our prediction (four years and $56MM) probably seems light if you focus on the positives — namely, a shiny 3.38 career ERA over 977 2/3 innings. That reflects some concerns about the sustainability of that output as Lynn enters his thirties.
Cardinals Release Trevor Rosenthal
The Cardinals have granted right-hander Trevor Rosenthal his unconditional release, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (on Twitter). Rosenthal was eligible for arbitration this offseason but underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and is likely to miss the majority, if not all of the 2018 season as a result.
The 27-year-old Rosenthal went under the knife late in August, making it unlikely that he’ll be able to contribute next season. Even in the unlikely event that Rosenthal had made it back for the tail end of the 2018 season, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $7.9MM salary, which would be far more than any club would be willing to pay given the amount of the season he’ll miss.
Rosenthal and agent Scott Boras will have to weigh multiple options this winter in free agency. When faced with a similar situation, Boras and client Greg Holland opted not to sign at all in the 2015-16 offseason, instead waiting until Holland was completely healed in the 2016-17 offseason and signing a one-year deal with a player option. That route certainly comes with more earning power, though all players have different preferences.
Alternatively, Rosenthal may well wish to find the security that someone like Nathan Eovaldi received last offseason, signing a one-year MLB deal with the Rays that contained a cheap club option for the 2018 campaign. While Eovaldi will “only” earn about $4MM over the 2017-18 seasons, he’s now had a full year to familiarize himself with his new organization and locked in some guaranteed money in the process.
Rosenthal could go either route, though the Holland route leaves him exposed to the possibility of lingering complications from his surgery ultimately preventing him from coming away from the ordeal with any guaranteed money. Regardless, interest in Rosenthal this winter should be robust, as teams look to buy low on the possibility of adding a high-caliber arm to their bullpen for the 2019 campaign once he has (hopefully) recovered from the ligament replacement procedure.
Quick Hits: Chen, Morton, Rays, Cardinals
Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen informed the Marlins that he will not opt out of the remaining three years and $52MM on his contract, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Considering the injury and performance issues he has had during his two-year Marlins tenure, there was no chance Chen would abandon his deal in favor of free agency. Elbow problems shelved the 32-year-old for long periods in each of the past two seasons, including for most of 2017, and he made just 27 starts and pitched to a 4.72 ERA during that 156 1/3-inning span. The five-year, $80MM contract the Marlins gave Chen prior to the 2016 season now looks like an especially damaging move for a franchise aiming to slash payroll.
More from around the majors:
- The Astros made one of the savviest signings of last offseason when they inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a two-year, $14MM contract, but they may have been able to land him for less, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. When discussing the Astros’ offer with his agent, Morton inferred that their proposal was worth a total of $7MM – an amount he was “thrilled with,” Olney writes. Morton was “astounded” to find that the Astros were willing to give him twice that figure, and he jumped at the chance to sign with the club. A year later, the Astros are World Series champions, thanks in no small part to Morton’s contributions.
- In the wake of their fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays are tasked with trying to improve while reducing their already minuscule payroll, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays opened 2017 with a payroll of around $70MM, the second-lowest mark in baseball, and ended it near $80MM. There will be cost-cutting trades this offseason, suggests Topkin, who points to righty Jake Odorizzi, left fielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson, closer Alex Colome and infielder Brad Miller as potential movers. Those four are projected to earn around $23MM through arbitration in 2018.
- With a glut of outfielders in both the majors and minors, the Cardinals are in position to “dominate” that segment of the trade market, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America observes (subscription required and recommended). Glaser goes on to break down the likelihood of the organization trading any of its top 11 outfielders, including Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez.
Rumors: Cards, Stanton, Yelich, Rangers, Yu, Cobb, Tribe
The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.
Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”
- Former Rangers ace and soon-to-be free agent Yu Darvish is not atop their offseason wish list, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Rangers will contact Darvish’s agent during free agency, but the likelihood is that he’ll be too pricey to return to the team, per Wilson. With a Darvish reunion looking like a long shot, the Rangers might turn to another established free agent right-hander in Alex Cobb, whom they covet, according to Wilson. The longtime Ray, 30, returned from a 2015 Tommy John procedure in earnest this year, tossing 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP ball.
- The Indians aren’t optimistic that they’ll be able to re-sign impending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports. Shaw has been an effective workhorse out of the Indians’ bullpen since 2013, having pitched to a 3.11 ERA across 358 2/3 innings during that five-year span, and appears poised to parlay his success in Cleveland into a contract out of the club’s price range. MLBTR projects a three-year, $21MM deal for Shaw, which the Indians believe will prove close to accurate, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com writes. With the soon-to-be 30-year-old Shaw apparently on his way out, the Tribe could feel more urgency to re-sign fellow impending free agent reliever Joe Smith, Hoynes notes. Smith, who will play his age-34 season in 2018, is fresh off a terrific campaign divided between Toronto and Cleveland.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton
The Cardinals have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton in trade speculation since the summer, and now Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes that the Cards are reportedly willing to offer the Marlins “one of their best young pitchers” in a Stanton trade, provided that Miami covers some of the $295MM remaining on the slugger’s enormous contract.
St. Louis is known to be looking for a difference-making bat this offseason, and few fit that description better than Stanton, fresh off a league-leading 59 homers in 2017. Acquiring Stanton, of course, will be no easy feat, even with the Marlins looking to pare down their payroll by getting Stanton’s contract off their books. Assuming Stanton, who has full no-trade protection, even approves of a deal to St. Louis, the Cardinals and Marlins would then have to work out what would undoubtedly be a complex set of negotiations to determine the players and money involved in such a trade.
The $295MM figure is enough to give any team pause, and Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak expressed wariness back in August about how large contracts can adversely impact a team’s performance. It isn’t surprising that the Cards would want the Marlins to eat some of Stanton’s contract to make a deal happen, though the dollar figure will surely hinge on just how many good prospects St. Louis is willing to send Miami.
Looking at young pitching within the Cardinals’ system, names like Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, and Dakota Hudson all stand out as candidates to be the mystery arm on offer to the Marlins. Weaver, Flaherty, and (depending on his recovery from Tommy John surgery) Reyes are all expected to play roles on the Cardinals’ staff in 2018, however, and pitching depth will be necessary given Adam Wainwright‘s struggles and Lance Lynn‘s likely departure in free agency. The Cards could deal a young starter and then acquire a veteran via trade or free agency as a replacement, though that could require another sizeable financial commitment, which the club could be hesitant to make if it did land Stanton (even with Miami eating part of the contract).
Despite Stanton’s huge production last year, it seems inevitable that the Marlins will have to cover some of the money owed in order to make a deal happen. “Three different general managers of profitable market teams” tell Gammons that Stanton wouldn’t be claimed if he were to suddenly be placed on waivers, due to the financial commitment required to sign him.
The Red Sox have also been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Stanton, though Gammons finds it “unlikely” that the slugger would approve a deal to Boston — to this end, the Sox haven’t reached out to Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent. It has been rumored that Stanton, a California native, wouldn’t approve of a trade that would keep him on the east coast, though his only stated priority is avoiding another rebuilding situation. As Gammons notes, the Red Sox also can’t match the Cardinals when it comes to young pitching prospects that are close to MLB readiness.