Astros Extend Ryan Pressly
TODAY: This deal is now official. The option vests with sixty appearances apiece in 2021 and 2022, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets.
YESTERDAY, 8:35pm: The vesting option is based on appearances and is worth $10MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.
8:11pm: The two sides have an agreement in place, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.
8:01pm: The Astros and right-hander Ryan Pressly are close to finalizing a two-year extension worth a guaranteed $17.5MM, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. The deal would kick in beginning with the 2020 season, paying him $8.75MM that year and again in 2021, with a vesting option for a third season. He’s already earning $2.9MM in 2019 after avoiding arbitration and was set to become a free agent at season’s end. Pressly is represented by the Ballengee Group.
Pressly, 30, joined the Astros in a midseason that sent prospects Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala to the Twins in July. Already in the midst of a strong season in Minnesota, Pressly became an all-out buzzsaw in the late innings with Houston. Pressly, who attributed his breakout to the Astros’ analytics department and its presentation of data to players, pitched to a 0.77 ERA with a 32-to-3 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 regular-season innings following the trade. He tacked on another five innings and allowed one run in the postseason.
A former Rule 5 pick by the Twins out of the Red Sox system, Pressly steadily improved his K/BB numbers from 2015-18, and his improvement in ’18 has the look of a potential elite weapon for the Astros moving forward. No reliever in baseball topped Pressly in terms of curveball spin rate — Garrett Richards was the only pitcher in all of MLB to best him in that regard — and the spin rate on Pressly’s fastball ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers.
He also ranked in the top five percent of the league in terms of overall strikeout percentage and several Statcast metrics (including expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average). Whether looking at traditional stats or newer metrics, Pressly was an overpowering force in 2018, and the Astros apparently had no interest in letting him get to the open market.
While that dominance hasn’t been sustained over a multi-year stint yet, there’s still an argument that Pressly could’ve reached free agency next winter as the market’s most desirable reliever. He hasn’t yet reached even $7MM in career earnings, so it’s easy to see why would take the security of a guaranteed payday worth two and a half times what he’s banked since his MLB debut. But, the relatively short-term nature of the deal and the $8.75MM annual rate could both have been topped with a similarly strong 2019 campaign; Adam Ottavino, for instance, parlayed a 2018 season that was not as dominant as Pressly’s into a three-year deal worth $27MM. Extensions are always a question of risk tolerance, though, and Pressly’s annual value is commensurate the annual rates attained by Ottavino and Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM with the Dodgers).
SP Notes: Keuchel, Braves, Eovaldi, Astros, Angels, Phils, Kershaw
With left-hander Dallas Keuchel still unemployed, the big-name free agent’s preparing for the season by “going through a full Spring Training, just like [Kyle] Lohse did,” agent Scott Boras told Jon Morosi of MLB.com earlier this week. Boras was referring to Lohse’s protracted trip to free agency six years ago, which ended March 25, 2013, with a three-year, $33MM agreement to join the Brewers. The majority of MLB followers expected Keuchel, 31, to land a far richer deal than that when the offseason began, but the onetime AL Cy Young winner has instead watched in recent months as most of the majors’ other high-profile free agents have come off the board. Still, the longtime Astro “is receiving offers,” Boras informed Morosi, who writes that the Braves are monitoring Keuchel’s market but are leery of surrendering a draft pick to sign the qualifying offer recipient. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported earlier this week Atlanta would “consider” Keuchel on a short-term deal; regardless of contract length, signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves their third-highest draft pick in 2019.
The latest on a couple other established starters…
- Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.
- Clayton Kershaw has been the starter for the Dodgers’ last eight Opening Days, but it appears the superstar southpaw’s streak is on the verge of ending. Manager Dave Roberts said Friday (via ESPN.com) it’s “unlikely” Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers on March 28 in their season-opening game against the Diamondbacks. Kershaw has been battling shoulder inflammation throughout the spring, which has prevented the three-time NL Cy Young winner from making an appearance in the Cactus League and from throwing offspeed pitches during his rehab. Set to turn 31 on March 19, Kershaw’s entering the first season of a three-year, $93MM contract – a deal that’s off to an inauspicious start.
Offseason In Review: Houston Astros
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
It was a relatively quiet winter on the transaction front for the Astros, but an action-packed offseason wasn’t necessary for the back-to-back American League West champions. Although Houston has lost more notable players than it has gained in recent months, the team will nonetheless enter the 2019 season as the runaway favorite in its division and a legitimate World Series contender.
Major League Signings
- Michael Brantley, OF: two years, $32MM
- Robinson Chirinos, C: one year, $5.75MM
- Wade Miley, LHP: one year, $4.5MM
- Total spend: $42.25MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired IF Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays for RHP Trent Thornton
- Acquired 2B Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea from the Mets for IF/OF J.D. Davis and IF Cody Bohanek
- Claimed C/OF Chris Herrmann from the Mariners, then non-tendered him
Notable Minor League Signings
- None
Notable Losses
- Dallas Keuchel (still unsigned), Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (still unsigned), Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado, Tony Sipp, Jandel Gustave
[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]
Needs Addressed
A world-class rotation was a staple for the Astros during their two-year run of dominance from 2017-18, a span in which their starters ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.58) and second in fWAR (37.3). While right-handed aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have been at the helm of the group lately, they weren’t in the mix for the entire two-year period. Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. were around for the full run, but the Astros entered the offseason in danger of losing Keuchel and Morton to free agency. Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow & Co. knew the club would have to get through 2019 sans McCullers, who underwent Tommy John surgery in early November.
Given the uncertain statuses of Keuchel and Morton and the unavailability of McCullers, the Astros figured to be aggressive in addressing their rotation during the offseason. However, with Opening Day approaching, they haven’t made any headline-stealing additions to their starting five. That could change if the Astros re-sign Keuchel, who stunningly remains available and whom they have interest in bringing back, but it seems a reunion will only occur if the 2015 Cy Young winner accepts a short-term contract. Unlike Keuchel, Morton’s long gone, having taken a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays back in November. The 35-year-old’s exit from Houston ended a fruitful tenure which began when it signed him to what became a bargain deal (a two-year, $14MM guarantee) entering its World Series-winning 2017 campaign. Even though Morton blossomed in Houston after several mediocre and/or injury-filled seasons elsewhere, the Astros didn’t regard him as a must-keep piece, evidenced by their choice not to issue him a qualifying offer and their subsequent one-year contract proposal.
While Morton was unwilling to say yes to the Astros’ single-year offer, the same wasn’t true for left-hander Wade Miley, whom they reeled in for $4.5MM at the start of February. Now 32, Miley is only a year removed from having to settle for a minor league contract with the Brewers after two straight woeful seasons divided between Seattle and Baltimore. However, the longtime innings eater ultimately pitched his way back to relevance in Milwaukee, where he posted a terrific 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP over 16 starts and 80 2/3 frames. Now, thanks to his 2018 renaissance, Miley’s a lock for the Astros’ season-opening rotation.
It appears Miley and the Astros’ other hurlers will work primarily with Robinson Chirinos, whom they brought in on a low-risk pact after the in-state rival Rangers parted with him. Chirinos, 34, is stepping in for free-agent departures Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado – the latter of whom rejected the Astros’ two-year offer toward the beginning of the offseason. The Astros tried to pull in bigger fish at the position, though, as they showed interest in J.T. Realmuto before the Marlins traded him to the Phillies and pursued Yasmani Grandal prior to his one-year, $18.25MM commitment to Milwaukee. Either Realmuto or Grandal would have given the Astros a clear-cut No. 1 catcher, which they may not have at the moment. Chirinos has typically lived up to the role as an offensive player, to his credit, but he’s no world-beater behind the plate. Conversely, backup Max Stassi carries more questions as an offensive player than a defender. While Stassi was an elite defender in 2018 who also managed solid offensive numbers in the aggregate, his production with the bat careened off a cliff after a red-hot April/May. Nevertheless, having lost out on Realmuto and Grandal, the Astros are banking on the disparate skill sets of Chirinos and Stassi complementing one another in 2019.
Chirinos is one of two new regulars in Houston’s starting lineup, but the other – left fielder Michael Brantley – comes with much more fanfare. The Astros’ headlining offseason acquisition, Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM deal which fell short of contract predictions from both MLBTR and FanGraphs. The longtime Indian has generally performed like a big-money player since his breakout 2014 season, though he was seldom available from 2016-17, when shoulder and ankle injuries robbed him of all but 101 games and stunted his numbers.
Fortunately, Brantley bounced back during his platform season, appearing in 143 games and slashing .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) over 631 plate appearances. Along the way, he struck out a paltry 9.5 percent of the time – the second-best rate in the majors – thereby continuing a career-long trend. It’s worth noting the Astros’ lineup was a bear to strike out even before Brantley showed up, as their offense registered the majors’ second-lowest percentage (19.5) in 2018. Now, an attack which already boasted Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer should be all the more frightening with Brantley’s arrival. Plus, as a rare lefty in a righty-heavy lineup, the 31-year-old will give Houston a bit of variety at the plate.
The Astros had a need for Brantley thanks in part to the free-agent status of switch-hitting utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, whom they’ve since lost to the Twins on a two-year, $21MM accord. Gonzalez’s contract looks like a more-than-reasonable pact Houston easily could have afforded, and the team did show interest in re-signing him. But long before Gonzalez exited in February, the Astros found a contingency plan in Aledmys Diaz, a mid-November acquisition from the Blue Jays. The Astros are preparing Diaz for a super-utility role to help make up for Gonzalez’s loss, yet it may be a lot to ask of the 28-year-old. After all, Diaz has only seen extensive major league action at a pair of positions – shortstop and third base – and is just two seasons removed from a dreadful offensive showing. The good news is that the righty-swinging Diaz rebounded in 2018 to essentially match Gonzalez’s output at the plate (.263/.303/.453 in 452 PAs vs. .247/.324/.409 in 552 attempts). A repeat of that production would be welcome for the Astros, whom Luhnow noted could afford to trade young righty Trent Thornton for Diaz thanks to a backlog of “upper-level pitching.” So, even though it’s anyone’s guess what the Astros will get from Diaz, the trade seems like a worthwhile gamble on the team’s part – especially considering he’s controllable for four years.
Questions Remaining
The presences of Verlander and Cole surely give the Astros’ rotation a high floor, though it’s evident this is a riskier group than last season’s. Missing are Keuchel, Morton and McCullers, who spun a combined 572 innings of above-average pitching in 2018. No single member of that trio – let alone all three – will be easy to replace, though all-world prospect Forrest Whitley, 21, could be one of the rotation’s saviors sometime this season and there are multiple other intriguing young hurlers at or near MLB readiness. Regardless, it would be unwise to rule out further moves from Luhnow, who swung brilliant deals for Verlander and Cole in the recent past and who has at least tried to bring in another mid- to high-caliber arm since last season ended.
The Astros have been connected to Keuchel, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Ray, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn at times dating back to November. The Diamondbacks’ Ray is the lone member of that group who hasn’t changed teams since then, and Houston could circle back to him (or look to another starter on the trade market) during the season if its rotation falls flat. As things stand, it appears the Astros will open the season with Miley, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock backing Verlander and Cole. Despite the stellar run prevention numbers he put up last season, it’s hard to trust Miley, whose strikeout and walk numbers underwhelmed (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and who benefited from an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball rate (5.2 percent, compared to 12.2 percent lifetime). He’s an obvious candidate for negative regression, even if he’s able to continue using his cutter to induce out-friendly contact. Less skepticism is deserved in regards to McHugh and Peacock, who have held their own as both starters and relievers in the majors.
On paper, the losses of McHugh and Peacock from the Astros’ bullpen will hurt the unit, but that’s not to say the club is set up poorly at the end of games. Quite the contrary, actually, as it’s due to receive full seasons from Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly – who joined the team in trades last summer – and continues to boast other healthy, established veterans in Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Chris Devenski. They could be joined by electrifying 26-year-old Josh James, who looked like a front-runner for a starting job before suffering a strained right quad in late February. James, like the rest of the aforementioned relievers, is a righty, and if there’s one quibble with the Astros’ bullpen, it’s the lack of a proven lefty. The team didn’t bring back Tony Sipp, who just signed for a relative pittance with the Nationals, even though he devastated both left- and right-handed hitters last season. The Sipp-less Astros will hope for breakouts from Cionel Perez and Reymin Guduan, a couple hard-throwing southpaws with minimal major league experience.
Meanwhile, with Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer and Brantley in the fold, the Astros will once again have a top-tier offense supporting their pitching staff. There are still some questions in their position player group, however, including: Will last year’s weak defensive showing carry over (Chirinos in, Maldonado out won’t help matters)? Will Diaz emerge as a reasonable facsimile of Gonzalez? Will well-compensated right fielder Josh Reddick rebound from a below-average 2018? How will designated hitter Tyler White follow up a 237-PA season in which he slashed an eyebrow-raising .276/.354/.533 (144 wRC+)?
White won’t have to approach last season’s numbers to properly replace ex-Astro and current free agent Evan Gattis, whose offensive production was pedestrian in 2018. Yuli Gurriel was similarly mediocre, though he remains the Astros’ preferred option at first base. Gurriel doesn’t seem to have a stranglehold on his position (and nor does White on his), however, considering the Astros reportedly pursued Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez and Jose Abreu over the winter. Luhnow has also demonstrated previous interest in Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos, who could again end up on the Astros’ radar in the coming months if they’re not content with their 1B/DH situation. Otherwise, should the Astros need an in-season offensive boost, perhaps they’ll shift Brantley to first/DH or relegate Reddick to the bench to make room for standout corner outfield prospect Kyle Tucker.
2019 Season Outlook
While there are clearly some legitimate concerns with elements of the Astros’ roster, and it’s arguable the team should have been more aggressive to improve it over the winter, the star-laden outfit still looks well-equipped to continue as a major league superpower and a division champion in 2019. Plus, with Whitley and Tucker among the talented youngsters in the fold as potential in-season reinforcements, Houston should only grow stronger as the year progresses, potentially setting it up for another title run.
How would you grade the Astros’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
How would you grade the Astros' offseason?
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C 42% (1,419)
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B 37% (1,280)
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D 11% (381)
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A 5% (185)
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F 4% (151)
Total votes: 3,416
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros’ Francis Martes Suspended 80 Games For PED Violation
Astros right-hander Francis Martes has been suspended 80 games after testing positive for the banned substance Clomiphene, the league announced Tuesday.
The 23-year-old Martes already going to be sidelined as he recovered from Tommy John surgery last August, but he’ll be docked 80 games’ pay and now be ineligible to pitch in the postseason even if he’s able to work back up to full strength. Beyond that, any possibility of him acquiring service time on the Major League 60-day injured list has now been wiped out, as he’ll come off Houston’s 40-man roster while he is on the restricted list as part of this suspension.
Martes was considered one of baseball’s premier pitching prospects prior to the 2017 season, landing inside the top 40 on the pre-2017 rankings from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus. His stock has dropped since that time, however, as Martes pitched to an ERA well north of 5.00 in both Triple-A and the Majors in ’17 before logging a 6.75 ERA in four Triple-A starts last season. The arm injury that ultimately necessitated his Tommy John procedure limited Martes to just 19 2/3 innings in 2018.
By the time he recovers from surgery, Martes will be approaching his 24th birthday and will be more than two years removed from being considered a premium prospect. There’s certainly still a possibility that he emerges as a quality big league asset down the line, but there’s also a chance that he enters the 2020 season having pitched just 106 1/3 innings over the preceding three years, which won’t do his development any favors.
Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani
The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.
Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:
- The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
- Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
- Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.
Injury Notes: Dodgers, Mariners, Altuve, Mets
The Dodgers expect their top two starters, left-hander Clayton Kershaw and right-hander Walker Buehler, and shortstop Corey Seager to be ready for the beginning of the season, manager Dave Roberts said Sunday (Twitter links via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Kershaw – who has been working back from a shoulder issue for two weeks – is set to throw a bullpen session Monday, while Buehler will throw live batting practice again Tuesday or Wednesday. Though Buehler’s not injured, the Dodgers are taking a careful approach with the 24-year-old wunderkind this spring after he experienced a massive innings increase from 2017-18. The Dodgers have also been cautious with Seager, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery and a left hip procedure.
- Manager Scott Servais issued updates on a few key Mariners on Sunday, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Greg Johns of MLB.com (all Twitter links). Third baseman Kyle Seager, brother of the aforementioned Corey Seager, underwent an MRI on Saturday on his injured left wrist. The results aren’t available yet, however. Outfielder Mallex Smith, who has been shelved the past few weeks because of a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, is making progress and could take batting practice Monday. Reliever Hunter Strickland has been unavailable since last Sunday with lower back tightness, but Servais doesn’t think it’s serious, nor should it keep the former Giant out for much longer.
- The Astros are shutting down second baseman Jose Altuve “for a few days,” manager A.J. Hinch told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters Sunday. Altuve’s battling left side soreness, though the Astros don’t believe it’s anything “alarming,” and they’re hoping the superstar can return to Grapefruit League action late next week, according to Hinch.
- Mets reliever Drew Smith is heading back to New York for an evaluation of his sore right elbow, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to report. Smith’s attempt to win a season-opening spot in the Mets’ bullpen is on hold as a result. In his first major league action last season, the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.66 FIP with 5.79 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 over 28 innings.
Injury Notes: Altuve, Duffy, Seager
We’ll use this post to keep track of minor injuries throughout the day…
- Jose Altuve was scratched from a spring game for the second time in three days due to left side soreness, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Altuve underwent knee surgery in October to repair a patella avulsion fracture in his right knee. Still, the soreness does not appear to be a major cause for concern, as neither Altuve nor manager A.J. Hinch expressed anything but confidence about Altuve’s ability to get back on the field in short order. Altuve has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, hitting the injured list for the first time in eight seasons last year, though he still appeared in 137 games while hitting .316/.386/.451 and accumulating 5.2 rWAR.
- Matt Duffy has experienced discomfort in his left hamstring, keeping him from spring action, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. Duffy has played in only one game this spring as a result of the injury, and at this point it’s likely he won’t be ready by Opening Day. The 28-year-old burst onto the scene in his 2015 rookie campaign with San Francisco, slashing .295/.334/.428 on the way to an out-of-nowhere 4.4 fWAR. Achilles injuries muddied his 2016 campaign and cost him all but eight minor-league PAs in 2017, but the former 18th rounder steadied himself at his former third-base home last season, posting a solid 106 wRC+/2.4 fWAR for the upstart Rays.
- Mariners 3B Kyle Seager will see be sidelined for “several days” after an ill-advised dive in Friday’s game resulted in an injury to his left wrist, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns details. A slimmed-down Seager had looked to rebound after a sloppy 2018 campaign, which saw the 31-year-old post career-worsts in OBP, SLG, wRC+, and fWAR. His hard-hit rate, though, remained at a robust 37%, and the lefty rededicated himself to nutrition and fitness during a busy offseason at his North Carolina home. Ryon Healy, who made just two appearances at the hot corner last season, figures to get time there in the interim.
Catching Notes: Perez, Royals, Maldonado, Murphy, Red Sox
The Royals have insurance on their five-year, $52MM contract with Salvador Perez, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (via Twitter). Specific terms of the policy aren’t clear, though the insurance policy is “believed” to kick in after 90 games. Kansas City will play its 90th game of the season on July 6 this year, after which point Perez will be owed approximately $4.57MM of his $10MM salary through season’s end. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll recoup that entire sum, as specific payments will be dependent on the terms of their policy. (The Mets’ insurance policy on David Wright, for instance, paid the team 75 percent of his salary based on days spent on the 60-day disabled list.) While the loss of Perez stings for the Royals on multiple levels, it seems they’ll at the very least be able to recover a few million dollars in salary, which could conceivably be used to pursue a replacement. Kansas City has been in talks with Martin Maldonado, who switched representation yesterday.
A couple more notes pertaining to the catching market…
- The Astros, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter), made Maldonado a two-year offer at the beginning of the offseason. Whether the annual salary that accompanied that offer was deemed insufficient or whether then-agent Scott Boras sought a lengthier pact, turning down the offer does not appear to have been a prudent decision. Of course, such proclamations are easy to make with the benefit of hindsight, and it was surely a far more difficult decision at the time. Many clubs — the Astros, White Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Braves and Dodgers among them — looked like viable on-paper fits for Maldonado and other catchers at the outset of free agency, so exploring the market for his services was only natural. Houston ultimately moved on, adding Robinson Chirinos on a one-year deal, while Maldonado remains unsigned having recently hired a new agent.
- Out-of-options Rockies catcher Tom Murphy is making a strong bid for a roster spot with his spring performance, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy is 5-for-16 with a pair of homers and two walks (against six strikeouts), but beyond the raw, small sample of stats he’s posted to date, he’s impressed manager Bud Black with an improved all-around game. “I think ‘Murph’ does a nice job of game-calling,” said Black. “…the whole aspect of his game is much improved over what we saw two years ago and that’s a tribute to ‘Murph.’” Murphy, 28 next month, once sat on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list (2015-16 offseason) but has yet to establish himself. He’s now fighting for a roster spot against veteran Chris Iannetta and a strong defender but light hitter, Tony Wolters.
- In his latest Opening Day roster projection for the Red Sox, Ian Browne of MLB.com predicts that Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart will make the roster. That’d leave Sandy Leon as the odd man out, forcing either a trade or a DFA of the defensive-minded veteran. Leon, Browne notes, is arguably the best defender of the bunch and could be a logical fit for the Royals. Swihart, meanwhile, has greater trade value given his former prospect status, upside with the bat and remaining team control. Leon avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.475MM (a partially guaranteed sum that’d become fully guaranteed on Opening Day). He hit just .177/.232/.279 in 288 plate appearances last year but was vastly better in 2016-17. Swihart, meanwhile, is controlled through 2022 and is earning $910K as a first-time arbitration-eligible Super Two player. His .229/.285/.328 line in 207 PAs last year wasn’t much to look at, either, though his playing time was sparse and he’s long been touted for his offensive potential.
West Notes: Verlander, Kershaw, Rangers
Astros righty Justin Verlander chatted yesterday about his pending free agency with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (all links to Twitter). While he’s keeping an open door to remaining in Houston, it doesn’t sound as if there’s any expectation of reaching a deal this spring. Verlander, who’s still at the top of his game at 36 years of age, reiterated his previously stated intention to pitch well into his forties. That expectation won’t lead him to chase the longest-possible guarantee in free agency, though. Having already secured career earnings in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Verlander says he’ll prioritize annual salary and other considerations while remaining “cognizant” of how his contract fits in the larger market picture. Further to that point, the veteran notes that big deals for this winter’s very best free agents have tended to mask the down-market struggles and number of teams that are not seeking to compete.
More from the western divisions …
- Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw threw to a catcher today from flat ground, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports in a series of tweets. That still counts as notable progress for the vaunted hurler, who also long-tossed and does not seem to have reported any issues. Shoulder issues have slowed Kershaw thus far in camp, but he has seemed to be on the upswing of late. Filling in for him early on shouldn’t be a problem for a Dodgers club that has a deep staff to call upon, but the early health issues are of greater concern given the recent history. Kershaw, who’ll soon turn 31, has now missed starts in each of the past three seasons and is under contract for three seasons and $93MM.
- While the Rangers recently worked out a new deal with reliever Jose Leclerc, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that it’s far from clear they’ll land any other extensions this spring. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara appear to be hypothetical candidates, but both say they’re not presently engaged with the club. That could still change; Gallo and Mazara each say they are willing to listen and are interested in remaining in Texas. Otherwise, it’s tough to identify any reasonable candidates on the roster.
Astros, Dallas Keuchel Have Had Recent Discussions
4:59pm: The Astros have made multiple offers to Keuchel, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), including both one and two-year scenarios.
10:26am: The Astros are still in touch with free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel about a potential return to Houston, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney hears similarly, tweeting this morning that the two sides have talked recently but, as of last night, were not close to agreeing to a deal. Heyman notes that the Phillies remain interested on a short-term pact, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote Tuesday that Keuchel is still seeking a multi-year pact.
Houston currently has Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh and Wade Miley penciled into the top four spots in the rotation, with Brad Peacock and Framber Valdez vying for the fifth spot in camp (a rotation battle recently explored by The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan). Re-signing Keuchel would push Peacock back into the multi-inning relief role in which he excelled last season. Beyond that, though, bringing Keuchel back into the mix would address the looming rotation void facing the Astros beyond the current season. Each of Verlander, Cole, McHugh and Miley will be a free agent following the 2019 season. Houston has top prospect Forrest Whitley looming in Triple-A and will ideally get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery in 2020, but the absence of even a single current member of the rotation on the books in 2020 does lead to some longer-term uncertainty.
Keuchel, 31, may not be the ace-caliber arm that he was when he took home the American League Cy Young Award in 2015, but he’s still very clearly a solid starter who’d improve just about any rotation in the Majors. Slowed a bit by neck and back injuries in 2016-17 — he still made 49 starts over those two seasons — Keuchel once again crossed the 200-inning threshold in 2018. Last season, he tossed 204 2/3 frames of 3.74 ERA ball with 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9 and a 53.7 percent ground-ball rate. Even excluding his pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns in 2014-15 (and that 2015 Cy Young nod), Keuchel has worked to a 3.77 ERA in 518 2/3 innings over the past three years.
Whether his lofty asking price has dropped to the point where the Astros would consider re-signing their homegrown lefty still isn’t clear, though recent talks between the two sides suggest that Houston is hardly closed off to the general concept. Re-signing Keuchel wouldn’t cost the Astros a current draft pick, but it’d prevent them from receiving the compensatory draft selection they’d receive if they allowed him to sign with another club.