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Phillies Claim Josh Fleming

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The Phillies have claimed left-hander Josh Fleming off waivers from the Rays, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The southpaw was one of six players placed on outright waivers by the Rays over the weekend.

Fleming, 27, has appeared in each of the past four seasons with Tampa Bay, oscillating between the bullpen and starting rotation. A bout of left elbow inflammation shortened his 2023 campaign, and he’s previously had IL stints for calf and oblique strains as well.

When healthy, Fleming has at times looked the part of a quality fifth starter or swingman. He logged 51 2/3 frames with the Rays this year and notched a 4.70 ERA with a career-worst 11.8% strikeout rate and against an 8.6% walk rate. Back in 2020, he made his big league debut with 32 1/3 innings of 2.78 ERA ball. On the whole, Fleming has piled up 223 1/3 Major League frames, working to a 4.88 ERA, 14.9% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. In addition to solid command, Fleming owns a massive 59% ground-ball rate at the MLB level.

Although he’s split his time fairly evenly between the bullpen and rotation in the big leagues, Fleming has been far more effective as a reliever (3.73 ERA) than as a starter (6.10 ERA). Right-handed opponents have been a challenge in particular; he’s yielded a .288/.351/.451 slash to opponents who hold the platoon advantage over him.

The Phillies could look to Fleming as depth for the starting staff and possibly a left-handed option in the ’pen. He’s out of minor league options, so he’d have to stick on the Major League roster on Opening Day 2024 or else be trade or exposed to waivers at some point between now and then. He comes to the Phillies with an additional four years of club control remaining, so if he’s able to get things on track and carve out a role on manager Rob Thomson’s staff, he could be a multi-year piece. Fleming will be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player this offseason, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected him for a $1MM salary.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Showalter, Kotsay, Ramos, Hudgens

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Buck Showalter is one of “several finalists” to be the Angels’ next manager, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).  Reports have linked Showalter to Anaheim’s vacancy for almost a month, just a few days after the Mets announced that the veteran skipper wouldn’t be back in their dugout next season.  Morosi’s update would seemingly imply that the Angels have moved into at least a secondary stage of their search, though public details have been rather scarce to date about who exactly is on the list of candidates.

Beyond Showalter, such names as infield coodinator Benji Gil, former Brewers/Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, and former Angels players like Torii Hunter, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the manager’s job, though it isn’t clear how many proper interviews has taken place.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote today that the Halos “plan to interview” Hunter, Erstad, and Salmon, which would seem to run counter to the idea that the club has already moved onto its group of finalists.  Regardless, Showalter seems to be firmly in the mix, and his track record would seemingly give him some advantage in the race, as Roenicke is the only other candidate with past experience as a big league manager.

Some more on other managerial and coaching situations from around the game…

  • The Mets’ search might be down to just Craig Counsell and Carlos Mendoza, as reported earlier today by SNY’s Andy Martino.  Earlier this week, Martino reported that Athletics manager Mark Kotsay was also under consideration from New York, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) today wrote that “Kotsay no longer is part of” the Mets’ search.  The A’s did grant Kotsay permission to speak with the Mets, though it doesn’t appear that Kotsay will be departing the Oakland dugout.  The former 17-year MLB veteran has been Oakland’s manager for the last two seasons, with a miserable 110-214 record that is hardly Kotsay’s fault, given that he was tasked with overseeing a team in a massive rebuild.
  • The Phillies announced that Cesar Ramos will be the team’s new bullpen coach for the 2024 season.  Ramos has working in the Phillies organization for the last four seasons, and was the pitching coach for Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022-23.  Ramos is best known for his eight-year pitching career with the Padres, Rays, Angels, and Rangers from 2009-16.
  • The Blue Jays have reassigned hitting strategist Dave Hudgens to another role in the organization, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports.  Hudgens was one of three batting-related coaches on the Jays’ staff (along with hitting coach Guillermo Martinez and assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense) this season, and some changes to this department were expected after most of Toronto’s lineup struggled in 2023.  Hudgens has been on the Blue Jays’ coaching staff since the 2018-19 offseason, previously working as the club’s bench coach.
  • Padres assistant farm director Mike Daly will manage the team’s Triple-A affiliate next season, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.  It is something of an unusual hire, as Daly has no professional experience as a manager, coach, or player at any levels.  Daly’s long career of front office work began with six years in Cleveland’s front office as a baseball operations staff and scout from 2001-06, then 15 seasons with the Rangers that saw him rise to assistant GM status.  Daly also worked with A.J. Preller during that stint in the Texas front office, and in 2021 Daly became one of many of Preller’s past Rangers associates to join San Diego’s organization.

Phillies Decline Option On Scott Kingery

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TODAY: Kingery is still part of the Phillies organization despite the declined option, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber.  Kingery is still under team control on the initial minor league contract that he signed after he was first drafted, though it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies might release him.

NOVEMBER 3: The Phillies announced they’ve declined their option on second baseman Scott Kingery. He’ll collect a $1MM buyout in lieu of a $13MM salary.

This was the most straightforward option call for any team this fall. Kingery spent the entire 2023 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley after being outrighted from the 40-man roster in June 2022. He has played in only 16 MLB games since the start of the ’21 season.

A former second-round draftee, Kingery developed into a highly-regarded prospect. He signed a $24MM guarantee in Spring Training of 2018, shortly before making his MLB debut. The deal didn’t work at all for Philadelphia, as Kingery hasn’t consistently hit at the highest level. He owns a .229/.280/.387 line over 325 big league contests.

The Arizona product hit .244/.325/.400 in 466 plate appearances with Lehigh Valley this past season. He stole 24 bases and hit 13 home runs while striking out at a lofty 29% clip. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s possible he finds a minor league deal elsewhere. Kingery turns 30 in April.

Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.

Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.

A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.

MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.

Quick Hits: Uniform Employee Contracts, Hamels, Maddon

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Major League Baseball is doing away with uniform employee contracts, according to a report from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Previously, the league required all employment agreements with managers, coaches, salaried scouts and trainers to utilize the same standardized language across all 30 teams. Clubs are now free to draft their own individual employment contracts for employees, opening the door to differences in contract language between teams, and employees will be subject to team-specific contract terms upon the expiration of their current deals. The impetus for the change, according to Drellich, appears to be shielding the league from liability regarding employment matters. Drellich also suggests that the change could help the league retain its antitrust exemption, which has come under fire on occasion in recent years, should MLB face employment issues in the future.

Perhaps the most well-known aspect of the uniform employee contracts to this point is a tampering clause that stops club employees from speaking to other teams while they’re under contract without permission from their club. A notable example of the tampering clause played out this past month, ahead of the expiration of Brewers manager’s Craig Counsell contract today. Though Counsell wasn’t under contract for the 2024 campaign, his contract with the Brewers ran through October 31, meaning that clubs interested in Counsell’s services such as the Mets and Guardians could not interview Counsell until the Brewers granted them permission to do so.

That being said, the move away from uniform employee contracts doesn’t necessarily portend the end of the tampering clause, or any other particular clause in the contract itself. It’s entirely possible that clubs could continue to offer employees roughly similar contracts going forward; in fact, Drellich suggests that the league’s antitrust exemption could allow teams to keep “some elements of the contracts effectively identical.” That reality has left the change to be met with mixed responses. Drellich cited one current scout who has concerns that clubs will take the opportunity to alter contract language in a way that works against employees, though he noted that others hope the departure from uniform contracts will spur competition between the major league clubs and create more favorable terms for employees in the future.

More notes from around the league…

  • Longtime big league lefty Cole Hamels retired from professional play back in August after 15 seasons in the majors and an additional three seasons of attempting to rehab from shoulder issues and make a comeback. Hamels, 40 in December, recently spoke to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer about his hope to return to the game, in another capacity, sometime in the near future. The first order of business appears to be a return to Philadelphia, where the Phillies plan to honor Hamels sometime next season. Beyond that, Breen notes that Hamels hopes he can find an off-the-field role somewhere in the game akin to that of the one Chase Utley once held with the Dodgers, acting as a liaison between the front office and players in the clubhouse.
  • The league has seen plenty of managerial churn both this offseason (with six teams either looking for a new manager or already employing a new manager, with a seventh on the table if Counsell departs Milwaukee) and in the past, but John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times relays that no team has contacted former Rays, Cubs, and Angels manager Joe Maddon regarding a potential managerial vacancy. Romano adds that lack of interest extends to last offseason, despite reports at the time of possible interest in Maddon from the White Sox regarding their managerial vacancy, which was ultimately filled by Pedro Grifol. Since departing the Angels, Maddon has been particularly critical of the implementation of analytics by many front offices in recent years, and Romano suggests that this lack of interest in the three-time Manager of the Year who reached the World Series with the Rays in 2008 before winning it with the Cubs in 2016 could stem from that criticism.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Thomson, Counsell, Guardians, Orioles

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There haven’t yet been any talks between the Phillies and manager Rob Thomson about a contract extension, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey) this week.  Thomson was named interim manager during the 2022 season after Joe Girardi was fired, and after the Phillies’ run to the World Series, Thomson was given a new two-year pact as the club’s new full-time skipper.  No club options were attached to the deal, so the 60-year-old Thomson is only locked up through the 2024 campaign.

Despite the relative lack of contractual stability, it doesn’t appear as though Thomson is going anywhere, given how successful the Fightins have been under his watch.  With still plenty of time left for an extension to be negotiated, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see a new contract for Thomson announced prior to Opening Day.  Though Thomson had been planning to retire from baseball heading into the 2022 season, his first run as a big league manager has re-energized his spirits.  “I love this city, this organization, this team.  I have never had as much fun in my life as I have the last couple of years.  So yeah, I can envision [managing beyond 2024,” Thomson told Coffey and company.

More on other dugout situations around baseball….

  • The Guardians are set to interview Craig Counsell after being granted permission by the Brewers earlier this week, creating speculation that the Guards might be able to find another experienced, successful manager to replace Terry Francona.  However, a Counsell/Cleveland pairing looks to be “a long shot,” as a source tells Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Pluto feels Counsell will ultimately end up staying in Milwaukee, though he thinks “the Guardians should go hard after Counsell” by giving him a deal akin to Francona’s past status as the highest-paid manager in baseball.  Of course, this wouldn’t stop the Brewers from also offering Counsell a raise, or the deep-pocketed Mets (who are also pursuing Counsell) from going overboard in a bidding war.
  • The Orioles’ coaching changes earlier this week could be “akin to the principal becoming the headmaster of a school and a new principal coming in beneath him to handle the day to day,” The Baltimore Banner’s Jon Meoli writes.  Chris Holt will remain the club’s director of pitching, even if he will no longer be acting as the Orioles’ pitching coach and quite so intimately involved in game-day operations.  Odds are that the Orioles will fill the pitching coach role from within, though Meoli feels an outside hire would represent some alteration in Baltimore’s approach in managing and developing their hurlers.

NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets

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One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins’s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.

With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.

More from around the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
  • SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.
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