Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Justin Verlander
Following the Mets’ decision to deal future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the Rangers over the weekend, eyes around the baseball world have turned toward the other Cooperstown-bound veteran in Queens: Justin Verlander. Previous reporting had connected the Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Reds to the veteran ace, though the Astros and Dodgers have appeared to be the frontrunners for Verlander’s services, in the event that he’s moved before the deadline.
More recent reports have echoed that sentiment, with SNY’s Andy Martino indicating that “three or four” clubs, including the Dodgers and Astros, have engaged with the Mets on Verlander, though no talks have progressed to the point of an agreement on specific players. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez expanded on the Dodgers’ reported interest with some specifics on negotiations between the sides.
Per Gonzalez, a deal between the sides is “unlikely” given the complicating factor of Verlander’s 2025 vesting option, which would convert to a player option if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. That being said, Gonzalez notes that the Mets were willing to pay down the majority of the money Scherzer was owed in order to extract a top prospect in the former of infielder Luisangel Acuna from the Rangers. Given the Mets’ dearth of top pitching prospects and the access LA enjoys, Gonzalez indicates that the likeliest path toward a Verlander deal would be the Dodgers putting together a prospect package of young pitchers that entices the Mets to pay down a significant portion of his salary.
Such a package would certainly be feasible for the Dodgers to put together, if they so chose. Five of the club’s top ten prospects are pitchers, per MLB Pipeline, and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Pepiot are either already in or approaching the majors. That list also doesn’t include young hurler Bobby Miller, who was the club’s top pitching prospect before he became a key cog in the 2023 club’s rotation. While the Dodgers surely wouldn’t consider moving Miller, dealing from the aforementioned trio of prospects could be a reasonable course of action for the Dodgers, perhaps paired with a lower-level arm like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack.
With other top-tier options like Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, and Jordan Montgomery having already moved this deadline, it’s possible that the Dodgers may be running out of alternative options in their pursuit of rotation upgrades. Gonzalez indicates that the club is only expected to add further pitching if it’s an impactful addition, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Marcus Stroman seemingly unlikely to move, Verlander and Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez could be the only arms left of that caliber.
NL West Notes: Kim, Padres, JDM, Smith, DeSclafani, Giants
Ha-Seong Kim suffered what Padres manager Bob Melvin described as a “jammed shoulder” that led to an early exit from today’s game against the Rangers. Kim suffered the injury while diving to score a run in the third inning, and partially colliding with Texas catcher Sam Huff while trying to reach and touch the plate. The good news is that tests revealed no structural damage, and Kim expressed hope that he might be able to play as early as Monday when the Padres start the series in Denver with the Rockies.
Only nine players have a better fWAR than Kim’s 3.7 total, as his bat (.279/.374/.447 with 14 homers and 21 steals in 391 plate appearances, for a 130 wRC+) and excellent defense (primarily as a second baseman but also at third base and shortstop) have somewhat quietly made him one of the better overall performers in baseball this season. Even if he misses a game or two, Kim’s presence is key to a team that might still be the biggest unknowns as the trade deadline approaches. The Padres are 52-54 and are five games out of a wild card spot, with three other non-playoff teams still ahead of San Diego in the standings. The Padres are known to be at least listening to trade offers for some of their top names, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal write that their “asking prices for both [Blake] Snell and [Josh] Hader…have been exorbitant.” It seems increasingly likely that San Diego might wait until almost the last minute before deciding whether to sell, buy, or (the most probable course) a combination of both tactics.
More from around the NL West…
- J.D. Martinez will undergo an MRI to determine the nature of his nagging left hamstring problem, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio). The veteran slugger has been bothered by the injury for almost a week, and tests should determine whether an IL stint might be necessary. Martinez missed close to three weeks due to back problems earlier this season, but it has otherwise been a strong year for the 35-year-old, who reached the All-Star Game and is hitting .260/.310/.562 with 25 homers over 365 PA.
- The Dodgers got another injury scare Sunday when Will Smith had to leave the game after being hit in the elbow by a Graham Ashcraft pitch. Smith remained in the game for three more innings after being hit and x-rays were negative, so the catcher is considered day-to-day and might be able to return as early as the Dodgers’ next game on Tuesday. Another Los Angeles All-Star, Smith has continued to be one of the game’s best catchers, entering today’s action with a 137 wRC+ (from 13 homers and a .279/.386/.474 slash line in 347 PA).
- The Giants placed Anthony DeSclafani on the 15-day injured list earlier today due to a right elbow flexor strain, with Tristan Beck recalled from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) that DeSclafani will miss “several weeks” with the injury, which at least creates some question as to whether or not DeSclafani might have thrown his last pitch of the 2023 season. An MRI revealed a grade 1 strain after DeSclafani reported some forearm discomfort during a bullpen session. DeSclafani’s injury might end whatever chance there was that the Giants might deal from their starting pitching depth, and it’s even possible San Francisco might look to add an arm before the deadline. Beck, Sean Manaea, or Jakob Junis could all be candidates to replace DeSclafani in the rotation or as bulk pitchers (behind an opener).
- Sticking with the Giants, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that San Francisco had interest in both Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez before the Dodgers landed both players in respective trades with the Guardians and Red Sox. With Brandon Crawford back from the injured list and Thairo Estrada also back soon, the Giants may no longer have quite as pressing a need for infield help, though Rosenthal feels the Giants could still trade from their pitching depth to address another need.
Mozeliak: Cardinals Are Not Trading Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals are not trading Nolan Arenado, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly stating that fact to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. There was a report earlier this week that the Dodgers had strong interest in the third baseman and were discussing a deal, but it seems those talks won’t lead to Arenado leaving St. Louis. “I have stated we are not trading him, have not asked him to waive his no-trade clause,” Mozeliak said. “So at this time, we are working on building for future success.”
Despite the reported talks with the Dodgers, there were inherent obstacles to getting a deal done. For one thing, Arenado and the Cardinals seem to have a good relationship, as he didn’t trigger his opt-out opportunity at the end of last year. Most observers agreed he could have beat the five years and $144MM remaining on the deal, but he chose to stay, seemingly happy to stick with the organization as opposed to maximizing his earnings.
Since he has a full no-trade clause, he would have to sign off on any deal, and it would be surprising for him to do so after just waiving that opt-out chance. The report on the talks with the Dodgers indicated he was willing to accept a deal only to the Dodgers, having always wanted to play for them as a Southern California native. But Arenado told reporters last night that he had not been approached about his clause.
Beyond the contractual complications, all indications have suggested the Cards are planning to sell some pieces but still try to contend again next year. Since Arenado is one of the better players in the game, it would be hard to imagine a scenario wherein they subtract him from the roster and make their 2024 team better. The Cards do have a surplus of position players and a dearth of pitching, so perhaps one could make the argument that even “losing” a trade that makes the pitching staff better would be a net victory, but the easier path is just to keep Arenado and find other ways of upgrading the pitching staff.
Although Arenado is apparently sticking around, it still seems like Mozeliak and his staff will be busy in the next few days. The Cardinals are currently 46-59 and 11 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak has already admitted that the club will have to do some selling, making moves that are more focused on upgrading the 2024 club. That will seemingly lead to trades of impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks between now and the August 1 deadline.
Dodgers Designate Phil Bickford For Assignment
The Dodgers announced that they have designated right-hander Phil Bickford for assignment. His roster spot will go to righty Joe Kelly, who has now been activated after being acquired from the White Sox yesterday.
Bickford, now 28, made a very brief major league debut with the Brewers before getting claimed off waivers by the Dodgers in May of 2021. He went on to make 56 appearances in the rest of that season, posting a 2.50 earned run average. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 9% of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip. He was likely helped by the baseball gods a little bit, as his .243 batting average on balls in play and 83.3% strand rate were both on the lucky side, but his 3.57 FIP and 3.28 SIERA still suggested he was a solid waiver wire pickup.
Things have trended in the wrong direction since then, however. He posted a 4.72 ERA in 60 appearances last year, with his strikeout and ground ball rates both dropping from the year prior. This year, his ERA is all the way up to 5.14 as he’s walking 13.7% of opponents. He’s still getting punchouts at a solid 25.3% clip but the overall results have been poor enough that he’s been squeezed out of the club’s plans. Since he’s out of options, they had little choice but to designate him for assignment.
The trade deadline is now just three days away, so the Dodgers have some time to potentially flip Bickford elsewhere. Despite the rough showing of late, he’s been in better form before. He’s also a former first-round pick, as the Giants grabbed him with the 18th overall selection in 2015, before sending him to the Brewers in the 2016 Will Smith trade. He has between two and three years of service time, meaning he could be retained for four more seasons beyond this one, though his out-of-options status means he would need an active roster spot.
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
Dodgers Acquire Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly From White Sox
The White Sox have already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Angels and are now sending out even more pitching. They are sending righties Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, the teams announced. Lynn had a 10-team no-trade clause, with the Dodgers on it, but waived it. The White Sox will receive pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, as well as outfielder Trayce Thompson.
Lynn, 36, has been an effective major league starter for over a decade now, debuting back in 2011. It has been a strange season for him here in 2023, however. Through 21 starts, many of his peripherals are in line with his career marks or even better. He’s striking out 26.9% of opponents on the year, a few ticks north of his 24% career rate. His 8.4% walk rate is only slightly worse than his career 8.2% clip, while this year’s 38.1% ground ball rate is just a bit off his 42.9% career rate.
But despite all of that, he has a 6.47 earned run average, almost three full runs above his 3.71 career mark. This seems to be due to a few factors. For one thing, he’s allowed a .328 batting average on balls in play that’s well beyond the .300 mark he’s allowed in his career and the .295 league average in the majors this year. His 61.6% strand rate this year is well below his career mark of 74.6% and the 71.8% league average this year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already allowed 28 home runs, more than any other season of his career even though there’s still a couple of months left.
20.6% of the fly balls Lynn has allowed have gone over the fence. That’s a mark that is very unlikely to be maintained going forward. Last year, the qualified pitcher with the highest rate in that department was Germán Márquez of the Rockies, who pitches half his games at Coors Field, at 16.9%. Lynn’s rate of 20.6% this year is the highest in the majors among qualified hurlers, with more than two percentage points separating him from Shohei Ohtani‘s 18.4% rate, the second-highest in that department.
Lynn’s hard hit rate is listed at 40.7% this year at Statcast, a slight bump from last year’s 38.7% rate, but it still seems fair to expect some regression towards the mean here. ERA estimators all like him better than his actual ERA, with Lynn having a 5.22 FIP, 4.82 xERA and 3.92 SIERA this year. It seems the Dodgers are banking on the fact that Lynn has actually been closer to his previous career form than a quick glance at his surface-level stats would indicate.
There are some similarities in the case of Kelly, who previously pitched for the Dodgers from 2019 to 2021. In 31 appearances this year, he’s striking out 32% of opponents while walking 9.4% and getting grounders at a 56.2% clip. All three of those figures are better than league average for a reliever, yet he has a 4.97 ERA. It’s possible that his .329 BABIP and 58.7% strand rate are pushing more runs across the board, as he has a 3.25 FIP, 3.23 xERA and 2.97 SIERA.
It seems that plenty of clubs were willing to look past the ERAs of these two pitchers, banking on their previous track records and under-the-hood numbers. In recent days, Lynn has received interest from the Rangers, Rays and Dodgers, while Kelly also received interest from the Rangers and Dodgers.
The White Sox are having a dismal season, currently sporting a record of 41-63 despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations. It was reported a few weeks back that they were willing to consider trade offers on anyone except for controllable core pieces Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Rental pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López were flipped to the Angels earlier this week.
Lynn and Kelly were both also logical trade pieces since they are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts, though both also have 2024 options. Lynn is making $18.5MM this year, with about $6.48MM left to be paid out. His deal also contains an $18MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is making $9MM this year, with about $3.15MM left to be paid, then has a $9.5MM club option with $1MM buyout.
The Dodgers have plenty of need for pitching, having suffered through a litany of injuries this year. Starters Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot are on the injured list, with Noah Syndergaard having been there as well until he got traded to the Guardians. That’s forced the club to turn to rookies like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove, alongside Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. Whenever Lynn reports to the Dodgers, he’ll likely bump one of those rookies back down to Triple-A. Further pitching additions could do the same, as could the return of Kershaw later in the season.
The Dodgers also have relievers Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Cyr and Jimmy Nelson all on the 60-day IL. Adding an experienced veteran like Kelly will increase the depth for the stretch run. Each of Lynn and Kelly could also be retained for next year if the Dodgers so wish, which will likely depend on how they perform over the next few months.
Turning to the players going to Chicago, the headliner is Nastrini. A fourth-round pick of the Dodgers from 2021, he’s already climbed to Double-A. The 23-year-old has made 17 starts at that level this year with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 26.1% of opponents but with an 11.3% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system while FanGraphs currently has him at #6.
Leasure, 24, was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been working exclusively in relief as a professional. He’s pitched 35 innings out of the bullpen in Double-A this year with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 39.7% of opponents but walking 11.3%.
Thompson, 32, is an immediate big league option for the Sox, or he will be once he returns from the injured list. He was drafted by the White Sox back in 2009 and made his major league debut for them in 2015. He quickly went into journeyman status, bouncing to the Dodgers, back to the White Sox, the Athletics, the Cubs, Padres and back to the Dodgers again, generally struggling in most of those opportunities.
He seemed to finally have his long-awaited breakout last year, with the Dodgers calling him up midseason and putting him into 80 games. He hit .256/.353/.507 in those for a wRC+ of 142 while providing above-average outfield defense, slotting into all three slots on the grass. Unfortunately, he struggled to keep it going into this year, hitting .155/.310/.366 before landing on the IL in early June due to a left oblique strain.
Thompson began a rehab assignment a week ago so should be able to join the White Sox in the near future. He’s making $1.45M this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one. The Sox have a regular outfield mix of Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Oscar Colas, with Jimenez serving as the designated hitter most of the time. Thompson could potentially spell anyone in that group while serving as a reserve outfielder alongside Gavin Sheets.
Despite plenty of injuries, the Dodgers are 58-43 and have a three-game lead in the National League West. They’ve already brought in some complementary pieces like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez, now bolstering their pitching staff with a couple of new additions. The Sox have continued adding young talent as they look to salvage some future value from a disappointing season. With four days until the deadline, both clubs likely still have more moves to make.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the two sides were deep in talks, with the Dodgers optimistic about getting both Lynn and Kelly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported an agreement was close. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed that Lynn was willing to waive his no-trade clause. Nightengale first had the Lynn part of the deal being done. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the Dodgers finalizing the deal for both pitchers. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the full trade.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dodgers Designate Justin Bruihl, Eddys Leonard For Assignment
The Dodgers announced that they have designated left-hander Justin Bruihl and infielder Eddys Leonard for assignment. Those two moves open up 40-man roster spots for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, who have now been officially acquired from the White Sox.
Bruihl, 26, was added to the Dodgers’ roster in August of 2021. He finished out that year in the club’s bullpen and has served as a frequently-optioned depth arm in the two campaigns since then. He’s made 65 major league appearances in that time with a 3.65 earned run average. His 15.6% strikeout rate is well below league average, but his 7.6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate are both solid. It’s possible he’s had some luck, as his .263 batting average on balls in play is on the low side, leading to a 4.48 FIP and 4.61 SIERA.
Leonard, 22, was added to the club’s roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. He hit .296/.390/.539 in the lower levels that year for a wRC+ of 145, but his results have tailed off since then. Last year’s line of .264/.348/.435 was still above average, but his wRC+ dropped to 119. This year’s been even worse, as he’s hitting .254/.327/.411 in Double-A for a 96 wRC+.
The Dodgers will now have a week to explore options with both players, either trading them or passing them through waivers, though the former option has a tighter timeline since the deadline is now just four days away. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand, and Bruihl still has a couple of option years, including this one. He also has just over a year of service time, allowing him to potentially serve as bullpen depth for another club for the foreseeable future. Leonard is having a difficult year but is still considered the club’s #28 prospect at Baseball America. He will also still have one option remaining after this one.
Dodgers Have Discussed Nolan Arenado Trade With Cardinals
The Dodgers have engaged the Cardinals in trade talks for Nolan Arenado, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but Castillo reports that Arenado, a Southern California native, is willing to waive that right only if it means going to the Dodgers. It’s unclear if those talks made any progress or if a deal is close but the Cardinals are under no obligation to move Arenado, since he has four more years on his contract and they plan on contending again next year, but the Dodgers do have young pitching that they need. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays word from Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, who says that the report Arenado is only willing to waive his no-trade for the Dodgers is “inaccurate.”
It’s hardly surprising that the Dodgers would be interested in Arenado, who has been one of the game’s premier players for quite some time. He’s launched 321 home runs in his career and has produced a batting line of .288/.345/.534 for a wRC+ of 122, dating back to his 2013 debut. He’s done that while providing elite defense at the hot corner, having racked up 151 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, as well as 90 Outs Above Average and a 73.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. He already has a career tally of 48.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 54.1 from Baseball Reference.
The Cardinals are having a disappointing season, having fallen to 46-57 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted a couple of weeks ago that the club would have to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 club. However, he also maintained that moving a key player like Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t in their plans. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said, before leaving the door open to an offer that could change his mind. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.”
To be clear, the Dodgers having interest in Arenado doesn’t mean the Cards are under any obligation to make a deal. As Mozeliak mentioned, they are willing to listen on anything. All indications have pointed to the Cardinals planning on moving short-term pieces and reloading for 2024 around a similar position player core but with a retooled pitching staff. Perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent to make a deal happen, but that’s still not clear at this point.
The Dodgers are 58-43, holding a three-game lead in the West and are clearly in buyer position. They’ve already added a couple of complementary pieces in Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario but a big push for Arenado would obviously be a move in a different stratosphere.
The club has used players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at third base for much of this year, though both players are also capable of playing other positions and Castillo reports it’s possible that one or both of them could end up going to St. Louis in the potential deal. Muncy has long been a three-true-outcomes leader, hitting plenty of home runs while frequently walking and striking out. He’s continuing that this year, hitting 25 home runs while slashing .197/.329/.478 for a wRC+ of 118. However, he’s more of a bat-first option at third, having produced subpar defensive grades this year. The Dodgers hold a club option for his services in 2024 set at $10MM with no buyout.
Taylor spent many years as an above-average hitter who could play just about anywhere on the diamond. He reached free agency after 2021 and re-signed with the Dodgers on a four-year, $60MM contract but has seen his offensive performance slip. He hit .265/.343/.461 from 2017 to 2021 but just .219/.297/.399 since the start of last year. Despite the diminished production, he’s still been able to slot into every position except for first base and the battery. He still has two years and $26MM remaining on his deal after this year.
Arenado would undoubtedly be an upgrade over either of those two players, though the Dodgers would have to part with something to make it happen. The Cardinals have long been known to be in need of long-term starting pitching since Adam Wainwright is set to retire while both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are impending free agents and likely to wind up traded in the coming days. Steven Matz is a question mark after getting bumped to the bullpen earlier in the year, only recently retaking a starting job. Depth options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Connor Thomas haven’t had great years either, leaving Miles Mikolas as the sole building block in next year’s rotation.
Young and controllable pitching is the something the Dodgers could offer, even some with some major league experience. Multiple injuries to their starting staff this year have forced them up push prospects up to the majors, including Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove. That group would have also included Ryan Pepiot, though he suffered an oblique strain on the verge of Opening Day and has been on the injured list since, only beginning a rehab assignment this month.
Miller, 24, has a 4.28 ERA through 10 starts, striking out 23.2% of hitters while walking 7% and getting grounders at a 45.5% clip. Sheehan, 23, has a 6.75 ERA through his six outings while Grove, 26, is at 6.19 this year. Each of those three and Pepiot were generally considered among the club’s 30 best prospects coming into the season and they all come with years of cheap control. Castillo’s report suggests the Cardinals have interest in all four. Moving them would leave the Dodgers with diminished pitching depth, but perhaps they could patch that over by acquiring veteran rentals for the stretch run, with Clayton Kershaw potentially returning at some point later in the year. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in rental starter Lucas Giolito prior to him being traded to the Angels yesterday, and Castillo’s report speculates they could be interested in getting Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals as well.
The Cardinals surely have some level of interest in each of those, given their dire need for pitching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re willing to move on from Arenado in order to acquire them. The two sides have long seen committed to each other, with Arenado even forgoing an opt-out opportunity at the end of last season. He likely could have topped the five years and $144MM remaining on his deal but decided to stay in St. Louis instead. He will still have four more years and $109MM left on that deal at the end of this year.
That would be a hefty salary for the Dodgers to take on as they are already over the competitive balance tax and will likely be trying to sign Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking deal this winter, like many other teams. Perhaps they could balance some of that out by including Muncy or Taylor in the deal, though that would depend how much the Cardinals value those veteran players compared to the younger starters.
Arenado departing St. Louis would leave a hole at third base in St. Louis going forward, though Muncy or Taylor could theoretically help fill that. Leaving those two aside, the Cardinals have many multi-positional players like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who have each played some third this year. Tommy Edman hasn’t played there this year but has in the past. He might be needed at shortstop if Paul DeJong winds up traded this week, though prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and could slot in there in the near future.
It’s worth reiterating that teams often discuss all kinds of trade scenarios and there’s been nothing to suggest anything is close to completion here. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat straight up denies that Arenado is being traded and, as mentioned up top, Arenado’s agent has denied the report about his no-trade clause. The Cardinals and Dodgers make sense as potential trade partners since one has short-term pitching but needs long-term, and the other the opposite. It would be natural for the Dodgers to at least ask about other players in those talks. Mozeliak has said in the past that the Cardinals, despite doing some selling, weren’t looking to move key players like Arenado. He did say they are willing to listen on anything, so perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching to make them think about it, but time will tell.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Joe Kelly
The Dodgers are among the clubs to express interest in White Sox reliever Joe Kelly, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Unsurprisingly, Murray notes that multiple teams are in the market for the hard-throwing righty.
Kelly is one of the likeliest players to change teams within the next five-plus days. The Sox are a clear seller and will move a few impending free agents by August 1. Kelly isn’t technically a rental, as the Sox hold a $9.5MM option on his services. They’re trending towards a $1MM buyout, though, so a trade to recoup some future value seems almost inevitable.
At first glance, the 35-year-old might not seem an especially appealing trade candidate. He’s sitting on a 4.66 ERA over 30 appearances and has allowed 5.45 earned runs per nine over parts of two seasons in Chicago. There’s a fair bit of intrigue in this year’s underlying marks, though.
Kelly has struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters, while he’s inducing grounders on a massive 56.2% of batted balls. An abnormally low 57.9% left on base rate has propped up his earned run totals, but few pitchers match that combination of punchouts and grounders. While his control has been erratic throughout his career, this season’s 9.4% walk percentage is manageable. An injured list stint earlier in the month for elbow inflammation temporarily threatened his trade candidacy but he was reinstated over the weekend.
As a likely impending free agent reliever, Kelly isn’t going to bring back a franchise-altering return. Yet the Sox shouldn’t have trouble finding a trade partner, offloading some of the $9MM he’s making (around $3.24MM of which is yet to be paid out, not including the option buyout) while bringing back controllable talent.
Kelly is no stranger to the Dodgers, of course. He pitched with L.A. from 2019-21, winning the World Series in the second of those years. The 12-year veteran posted a 3.59 ERA over 105 1/3 regular season innings in Dodger blue and appeared in all three of their postseason runs during that stretch.
The Dodger bullpen ranks 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA entering play Wednesday. They’re 11th in strikeout percentage (24.4%) and ground-ball rate (44.7%). Los Angeles is also known to be targeting starting pitching, and they’re one of the teams reportedly in talks with the Sox regarding right-handers Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito. There’s nothing to suggest L.A. is the perceived favorite on any of Kelly, Lynn or Giolito, but it stands to reason the clubs have had at least some dialogue about a potential package deal.
Dodgers, Guardians Swap Amed Rosario For Noah Syndergaard
The Dodgers and Guardians swapped veterans at positions of need. Los Angeles announced they’ve traded starter Noah Syndergaard and cash considerations to Cleveland for infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario. It’s reportedly a cash-neutral transaction, indicating L.A. is sending roughly $1.9MM to cover the difference of what remains on the players’ respective $13MM and $7.8MM salaries.
Essentially, it’s a change of scenery trade between two clubs hoping to balance their rosters for the stretch run. Each of Rosario and Syndergaard will be free agents at season’s end. Neither player was a candidate to receive a qualifying offer — Syndergaard is ineligible for the QO having previously received one in his career, while Rosario simply wasn’t playing well enough.
Rosario’s time in Cleveland wraps up after two and a half seasons. Cleveland acquired the former top prospect from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster going into the 2021 campaign. Andrés Giménez has been the best part of that deal for Cleveland, but Rosario has capably held down shortstop for a couple seasons.
The right-handed hitter posted average offensive numbers in each of his first two seasons with the Guardians. He connected on 11 home runs in both years while hitting around .280, though meager walk totals kept his on-base percentage right around league average. Over the two-year stretch, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 line in over 1200 trips to the plate.
Rosario’s third season with the Guardians hasn’t been as productive. In 94 games, he’s hitting .265/.306/.369. That’s largely attributable to a frigid start, as he put up a .233/.280/.327 slash through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, he owns a much more impressive .301/.335/.415 line.
By and large, Rosario’s underlying marks align with his career trajectory. His 5.3% walk rate and 18.7% strikeout percentage are right in line with his career averages. His 42.1% hard contact rate and 88.6 MPH average exit velocity are at the higher end of his overall marks. Middling start aside, Rosario seems mostly the same offensive player he’s been throughout his time in Cleveland — a high-contact hitter with an aggressive approach and fringe power.
That hasn’t been the case on the other side of the ball. Rosario’s defensive ratings have cratered this year. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have rated him as the worst shortstop in the majors, pegging him somewhere between 12 and 15 runs below average. He has committed the sixth-most errors (11) at the position.
Public defensive metrics have generally pegged Rosario as a below-average defender throughout his career. This year’s marks are a personal-worst, though, and it seems likely the Dodgers will bounce him around the diamond. Rosario has brief experience in the outfield. He’s never played an infield position aside from shortstop, but the majority of shortstop-capable players can kick over to second or third base without issue.
As with Enrique Hernández, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Red Sox last night, Rosario adds a flexible right-handed bat to Dave Roberts’ roster. He has an excellent .304/.346/.475 slash in 463 plate appearances against left-handed pitching dating back to the start of 2021. The Dodgers have been clear about their desire to add some balance to a lineup in which incumbent righty-swinging middle infielders Miguel Rojas and Miguel Vargas have underperformed offensively.
Vargas’ struggles pushed him back to Triple-A. Rojas remains the favorite for shortstop playing time on the strength of his glove. Rosario offers a bat-first alternative at the position who could cut into the playing time for utility types like Chris Taylor and Yonny Hernández. Adding a couple righty-swinging infielders also enables the Dodgers to use Mookie Betts more frequently in the outfield than at second base against lefty pitching, further limiting David Peralta’s and James Outman’s exposure to same-handed arms.
Cleveland figures to turn shortstop over to one of a number of younger players in the upper levels of the organization. Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio are all fairly recent highly-regarded prospects who have reached the big leagues. Freeman, who is currently on the MLB roster, might be the first choice thanks to an excellent .329/.468/.482 showing in Triple-A. He’s a stellar contact hitter who has experience throughout the infield. He’s perhaps better suited for second base, but Giménez could kick across to the left side of the infield.
Arias is also currently on the big league club. He’s viewed as a plus defensive option at shortstop but hasn’t produced much offense in a multi-positional role. In 162 trips to the plate, the right-handed hitter owns a .179/.290/.300 line while striking out more than 32% of the time. Rocchio is in Triple-A, where he has a solid .295/.385/.419 slash over 83 games.
The Guardians are comfortable enough with that group of youngsters to relinquish Rosario in exchange for a buy-low roll of the dice on Syndergaard. The right-hander hasn’t managed to recapture his All-Star form since undergoing Tommy John surgery in advance of the 2020 season. He missed almost all of 2020-21, then returned with a fine but unexceptional 3.94 ERA in 25 appearances between the Angels and Phillies last year.
Los Angeles took a shot on a rebound in free agency. The Dodgers inked Syndergaard to a one-year, $13MM guarantee and installed him into the season-opening rotation. The move didn’t pan out, as he had a rather forgettable 12-start stint in Dodger blue. Through 55 1/3 innings, he posted a 7.16 ERA. A blister on his right index finger sent him to the injured list on June 8 and marked the end of his L.A. tenure.
Syndergaard began a minor league rehab stint two weeks ago. He’s made a couple Triple-A appearances, reaching 77 pitches in a start last Friday. It stands to reason he’ll be able to make a return to a big league rotation in the near future.
A few months ago, the notion of the Guardians trading for a short-term rotation upgrade would’ve seemed far-fetched. Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries, though, losing each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill to extended issues. That leaves Aaron Civale and the rookie trio of Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee starting games for now.
The Guardians become the latest team hoping to get Syndergaard back on track. He still boasts excellent control, walking fewer than 4% of opposing hitters. Yet the high-octane arsenal that earned him the ‘Thor’ moniker at his peak has dwindled. Syndergaard’s fastball is averaging 92.6 MPH this season, nowhere near the upper-90s of his pre-surgery days. His cutter isn’t missing bats the way his slider once had. Syndergaard has punched out only 15.4% of opposing hitters, a career-low mark that’s more than six percentage points below league average for starters.
The Dodgers hold a 3 1/2 game lead over the Giants in the NL West. Cleveland sits two games behind the Twins in the AL Central. There are presumably more moves on the horizon for both, but they’ll each roll the dice on a veteran having a down year in hopes of getting a spark for the final couple months.
Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Dodgers were nearing a deal for Rosario. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed a Rosario trade was in place, pending medical reviews. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated reported the Guardians were receiving Syndergaard in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the Dodgers were including cash, which Zack Meisel of the Athletic specified made the deal a wash financially.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.