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Jonathan India And The Reds’ Grand Experiment

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Jonathan India’s impressive play is forcing the Reds (and Eugenio Suarez) to pivot. The 24-year-old infielder is looking more-and-more likely to make the roster, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. It wasn’t the plan to break camp with India at the keystone, but the former No. 5 overall pick of the 2018 draft has forced the issue by hitting .333/.474/.633 this spring. To make room, the Reds will need to pull off the unorthodox move of shifting their third baseman up the defensive spectrum – again.

Last year it was free agent signee Mike Moustakas continuing an experiment begun in Milwaukee and sliding to second base from the hot corner – which was occupied by Suarez. At the benefit of Moustakas’ 109 wRC+ bat, they weathered the storm of passable, if uninspired defense at second (-3 DRS, 0.0 UZR, 0 OAA). Now, Moustakas may return to the hot corner.

Meanwhile, Suarez, now 15 pounds lighter, will slide to shortstop where he began his Major League career with the Tigers back in 2014. He hasn’t played more than a dozen innings up the middle since 2015, however. Since the Reds began trying out Suarez at shortstop just a few days ago, the experiment has quickly become more strategy than gimmick. Defensive metrics frowned upon Suarez’s glovework last he tried to captain the infield (-12 DRS, -10.4 UZR in 96 games in 2016), but in fairness, his bat has the potential to justify the sacrifice. Even in a down year, Suarez was four percent better than average at the plate in 2020. Of course, to make this experiment worthwhile, he’ll need to be closer to the 134 wRC+ hitter he was in 2018-19.

Beyond India’s impressive spring, the Reds may also be attempting to cover for a relative dearth of proven shortstops on the roster. If not Suarez, the top contenders are Kyle Farmer, a 30-year-old former catcher with 10 career starts at short, and Dee Strange-Gordon, 33 in April, who owns an unimpressive 80 wRC+ over 2,131 plate appearances dating back through 2016 and hasn’t started more than seven games at shortstop since 2013. Even then, when he was still in his athletic prime, defensive metrics weren’t kind to his glovework. As of now, it’s not even clear if the non-roster invitee will be added to the 40-man roster. Jose Garcia, 22, might be the long-term solution, but the consensus is that he overreached in 2020 – evidenced by a .194/.206/.194 line in 68 PA – and needs more seasoning in the minors.

If India indeed gets the nod at second, as seems likely, it could be argued that the Reds will have third basemen at five positions around the diamond: both India and likely centerfielder Nick Senzel were drafted as third basemen, Suarez has spent five consecutive seasons at third, Moustakas will be positioned at third, and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos spent the first four years of his career as a third baseman with the Tigers. Essentially, if a player on the Reds throws right-handed, it’s safe to assume he was, at some point, a third baseman. Given their experience in this niche, whether or not you’re a believer, it’s hard to argue that the Reds don’t know what they’re doing.

Whether the offense has enough gravity to overcome their defensive shortcomings will be fascinating to track throughout a full 162-game season. If the Reds pull it off, they’ll have identified an unlikely market advantage during an era known for innovation: the ability to transition third basemen up the defensive spectrum.

Reds Considering Using Eugenio Suarez At Shortstop

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Eugenio Suarez hasn’t gotten significant reps at shortstop since 2015, but the Reds may use him there this season. With Suarez having lost 15 pounds since last season, the team is considering him as an option at short, manager David Bell told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Monday. He’ll start there for the team in its game against the Rockies on Tuesday.

Suarez has been the Reds’ primary third baseman since 2016, but the team has a capable hot corner replacement in Mike Moustakas, who has spent the majority of his career at the position. Moustakas was mostly a second baseman last season, and he’s penciled in as the Reds’ starter at the keystone this year. However, if Suarez shifts to short, it could open up second for Jonathan India, Nightengale notes. India, the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, hasn’t played above the Double-A level yet, though Bell said last week that the 24-year-old has a legitimate chance to make the Reds’ Opening Day roster.

When the offseason began, expectations were that the Reds would acquire a shortstop in free agency or via trade (Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons and Ha-Seong Kim were all on the open market), as Freddy Galvis, Jose Garcia and Kyle Farmer combined for just 0.1 fWAR at the spot. Galvis has since left for the Orioles, while Garcia was clearly in over his head in his first major league action. Nevertheless, the Reds didn’t sign any shortstops to a big league deal or land a proven option in a trade, and it could now lead them to reinstall Suarez at the position this year.

Suarez has the bat for shortstop, having slashed .261/.342/.473 with 162 home runs in 3,433 plate appearances, but it’s up in the air whether the 29-year-old would perform well in the field. In 96 games at short in 2015, Suarez posted miserable marks with minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Latest On Reds’ Trade Discussions

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The Reds and Nationals are known to have discussed a possible deal around third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and the failure to complete a deal seems to hinge on the Nats’ unwillingness to part with top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Rutledge and Cavalli were the Nats’ top draft choices in the past two drafts. It’s not a surprise that Washington would hold on tight, as their system isn’t known for tremendous depth, and they traditionally value starting pitching. Besides, ace Max Scherzer will be a free agent after this season, and at some point, the Nats will need to graduate top pitching talent in order to maintain the standard they have set in the rotation. Any deal with the Nats would probably have to center on Carter Kieboom. If the Reds believe in Kieboom’s ability to play shortstop, he would make sense as a starting point for a deal.

The Reds seem more open to the idea of moving Mike Moustakas or Nicholas Castellanos, but neither has generated as much trade interest as Suarez, tweets Heyman. Despite an uninspired 104 wRC+ in 2020, Suarez remains the Reds’ most-compelling bat. A .214 BABIP was down by almost 100 points from his career average, and a shoulder injury might have slowed his production. His 29.0 percent strikeout rate is a touch high, but Suarez still boasts patience (13.0 percent walk rate) and power (.268 isolated power), as well as long-term control on a reasonable contract. The 29-year-old Suarez will make $10.79MM in 2021 before three years at $11.29MM and a $15MM club option in 2025. Relative to Moustakas (three years, $16MM AAV with club option) and Castellanos (three years, $15.3MM AAV with mutual option), Suarez’s deal looks like a bargain, and he’ll be just 33-years-old at the end of the 2024 season.

The most likely place for the Reds to add from outside the organization remains shortstop, as their 2021 starting shortstop doesn’t appear to be on the 40-man roster at present, writes the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. The organization clearly does not view Senzel as an option there, and Jose Garcia likely needs more the in the minors after being rushed into action in 2020. That could mean trading for a shortstop, but with so many options still available on the market – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius – free agency remains their likeliest route to add an infielder.

Reds Place Nick Senzel On Injured List

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The Reds have placed center fielder Nick Senzel on the injured list and reinstated infielder Mike Moustakas from the 10-day IL, per a club announcement. An injury designation for Senzel was not provided. Cincinnati will also have infielder Robel Garcia on hand as the 29th man for today’s twin bill against the Royals.

There’s no firm indication that Senzel has tested positive for the coronavirus, but his vague IL placement comes after the club had its past three games postponed due to a positive test within the organization. Players can also be placed on the Covid-19 IL for exhibiting symptoms or coming into contact with someone who has since confirmed positive for the virus.

Moustakas has been out since Aug. 4 due to an injured left quadriceps and has played in just seven games this season, hitting .238/.333/.524 with a pair of homers in 24 plate appearances. He’s at designated hitter for the first game of today’s doubleheader but should eventually resume his duties as the club’s everyday second baseman. Senzel is hitting .244/.327/.489 with a pair of homers, five doubles and two steals in 14 games this year.

Both Moustakas and the 25-year-old Senzel missed time earlier this season after self-reporting symptoms of Covid-19 to the Reds. Each tested negative in the subsequent days, however. As MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon wrote last Friday, Senzel was withheld from the team’s victory line at the end of a win and exited the field with visible frustration. The Reds have not had a positive test since the decision to postpone Saturday’s game.

Reds Place Mike Moustakas On 10-Day Injured List

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The Reds announced that infielder Mike Moustakas has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 6) due to a left quad bruise.  Right-hander Tejay Antone has been called up to take Moustakas’ roster spot.

It’ll be the second injured list stint this year for Moustakas, who missed three games earlier this year after entering COVID-19 protocol when he reported symptoms (though he never tested positive). The 31-year-old has already missed 8 of the Reds’ first 15 contests, owing to that scare and the quad injury that has kept him out of action since Tuesday.

The Reds had hoped that Moustakas would be healthy enough to return in time for their upcoming series versus the Royals, but evidently he’ll need a bit more time to recover. Through his first seven games, Moose is batting .238/.333/.524 with two home runs. With Moustakas on the shelf, it’ll likely be a combination of Christian Colon and Kyle Farmer picking up the slack at second base. Neither Colon nor Farmer has hit especially well in limited plate appearances this year.

Antone, meanwhile, has opened some eyes in his first two outings in the Majors—one as a starter and one in relief. He’s struck out nine batters in 8 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs. Reds fans will get to see more of him in the near future, though with no need for more starters at the moment he’ll be relegated to relief duty.

Reds Activate Nick Senzel, Mike Moustakas

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Reds outfielder Nick Senzel has been cleared to return to the active roster today, he announced on his Twitter account. Infielder Mike Moustakas was also given the green light to resume play, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic adds on Twitter.

This is obviously great news for the Cincinnati organization, which was missing two key pieces of its anticipated roster. As The Athletic reported earlier, they had appealed a league determination of a lengthier period of absence after the duo had reported some symptoms potentially consistent with COVID-19 over the weekend.

Thankfully, it seems as if there’s no reason to worry that either of the two players has come down with the coronavirus. Both players’ symptoms have since resolved and obviously neither has recorded a positive test.

The Reds have now announced the moves. The team has created a necessary active roster spot by optioning backstop Tyler Stephenson.

Reds Place Mike Moustakas On Injured List

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The Reds announced they have placed second baseman Mike Moustakas on the injured list. No reason was given for the placement, but Moustakas was scratched from the lineup this morning after waking up “not feeling well,” in the words of manager David Bell. MLB protocols permit a symptomatic player to be placed on the COVID-19 injured list even in the absence of a positive test. Notably, Reds’ DH Matt Davidson tested positive for the coronavirus earlier this week.

Catching prospect Tyler Stephenson has been called up to replace Moustakas on the active roster. Additionally, outfielder Nick Senzel was scratched from today’s starting lineup without further explanation. Senzel remains on the active roster.

This would be a worrisome development for Moustakas and the Reds no matter what, but it’s especially troubling in conjunction with today’s reports that multiple Marlins players had tested positive for COVID-19. The paramount concern, of course, remains the health of the players affected. It’s important to note there’s no confirmation at this point Senzel is dealing with an illness at all.

From an on-field perspective, a lengthy absence from Moustakas would be a difficult blow to the Reds’ hopes of contention. They promised him $64MM over four years to install his power bat into the lineup. Josh VanMeter is getting the start at second base this afternoon.

Stephenson, meanwhile, is one of the game’s top catching prospects. The 23-year-old is in line to make his MLB debut after an impressive .285/.372/.410 showing in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment last season.

East Notes: Moose, Jays, Donaldson, Braves, N. Walker, deGrom

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Mike Moustakas came off the market when he signed a surprisingly large contract (four years, $64MM) with the Reds in December. It turns out that the Blue Jays were among the runners-up for Moustakas, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that they made him a three-year, $30MM offer. The Reds obviously blew that proposal out of the water, however, and the Jays pivoted to a much cheaper corner infielder Travis Shaw (one year, $4MM). A third baseman for most of his career, Moustakas is set to handle second in Cincinnati. That position is spoken for in Toronto (Cavan Biggio), as is third (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), so it seems likely Moustakas would have worked at 1B extensively for the first time in his career had the club won the bidding for him. Instead, the Blue Jays will hope for a bounce-back season from Shaw, who was teammates with Moustakas in Milwaukee last year.

Let’s move over to the NL East…

  • The Braves lost their top free agent, Josh Donaldson, to the Twins’ four-year, $92MM offer over the winter. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged afterward that the team put forth an offer that came up short. Heyman has some details on it, reporting that the Braves were willing to go to four years in the range of $75MM to $90MM to retain Donaldson. That’s a wide gap, so it’s unknown just how much money Donaldson would have left on the table to re-sign with Atlanta. Regardless, the club now looks to be in much less impressive shape at third, where Austin Riley and Johan Camargo are competing for the starting role.
  • Infielder Neil Walker signed a minor league contract with the Phillies over the winter, but he has no plans to play below the MLB level. “I’m not going to concede to the notion of retiring as a 34-year-old who is in good shape,” Walker told Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link). “But I’m not going to play in Triple A.” For now, Walker’s continuing to compete for a reserve role in Philadelphia, but if he’s unable to find a big league job with the Phillies or another team this season, it’s possible it’ll be the end of the line for the longtime second baseman. The switch-hitting Walker did still have something to offer at the plate last season, though, as he batted .261/.344/.395 (99 wRC+) in 381 trips.
  • As a back-to-back Cy Young winner, it doesn’t seem that Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom has to change anything. But the ace is now working on adding more curveballs into his repertoire, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes. According to FanGraphs, deGrom’s usage of the pitch ranged from 7.9 percent to 10.8 percent from 2014-18. The number dropped to 3 percent in 2019, when opposing hitters had their way with it to the tune of a .364 weighted on-base average. That was the only pitch deGrom threw last year that hitters could even muster a .300 mark against. He was dominant overall, notching a 2.43 ERA/2.67 FIP with 11.25 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 over 204 innings.

The Brewers’ Infield Picture

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Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell’s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

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