MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

With free agency approaching, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the options who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll wrap up the exercise with a look at the group of right-handed relievers.

Top of the Market

Raisel Iglesias (32): After being dealt to the Angels in what was largely a salary-dump move for the Reds, Iglesias quietly had the best season of his career in many respects. He racked up 34 saves, which matched his personal best. Over 70 innings, his ERA was 2.57. His strikeout rate was an excellent 37.7%, which was bested only by Jacob deGrom, Liam Hendriks and Paul Sewald, among pitchers with at least 60 innings. Iglesias dropped his walk rate to a personal best 4.4%, also an elite number. In short, he was one of the best relievers in the game this year. If we prorate 2020 out to a full season, Iglesias has now logged 60-plus innings with an ERA under 2.75 in five of the last six seasons, with 2019’s 4.16 ERA looking like an aberration.

Ready-Made Closers

Kenley Jansen (34): The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM contract. In the first year of that deal, 2017, he was as dominant as Dodgers fans had come to expect, racking up 41 saves with a miniscule 1.32 ERA, with elite strikeout and walk rates of 42.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 2018-2020, he slipped a bit from those incredible heights but was still very good. The ERA went above 3.00, the strikeout rate hovered around 30% and the walk rate has gradually climbed towards double digits. In 2021, he got the ERA back down to 2.22 despite his walk rate climbing to a higher than average 12.9%. He still notched 38 saves and had a great year overall, but there are concerns in the underlying numbers. That combined with his age will certainly mean he won’t match his last contract, but he should still command a lot of interest on a shorter term.

Alex Colome (33): 2021 was Colome’s sixth-straight season of tallying at least 12 saves. He had 17 on the campaign this year, over 65 innings. However, his 4.15 ERA was the highest of his career. He’s gradually become more of a ground ball pitcher over the years, sacrificing strikeouts in the process. His 53.7% grounder rate was the highest of his career, though his strikeout rate has been around 20% in 2020 and 2021, after peaking at 31.6% in 2016.

Ian Kennedy (37): It’s been an up-and-down ride for Kennedy since he moved to the bullpen three years ago. The first campaign was great, as he saved 30 games for the Royals in 2019 with an ERA of 3.41 and a 27.4% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, injuries hampered his 2020, limited him to 14 innings with an ERA of 9.00. The Rangers then signed him on a minor league deal that turned into a steal. Kennedy notched 16 saves in 31 1/3 innings with Texas, with a 2.51 ERA. The club was then able to send him to Philadelphia along with Kyle Gibson for a package of prospects. Things didn’t go as smoothly for Kennedy with the Phillies, however, as his ERA ballooned up to 4.13 over 24 innings. He did still notch 10 more saves, though, giving him a total of 26 on the year. Given his age and inconsistent track record, he won’t get a lengthy contract. But that could make him attractive to both contending clubs as well as rebuilding clubs who would hope for a solid first half and a deadline deal like the Rangers just got.

Other High-Leverage Options

Kendall Graveman (31): Graveman’s first full season as a reliever could hardly have gone much better. Between Seattle and Houston, he threw 56 innings with an ERA of 1.77, strikeout rate of 27.5% and walk rate of 9%. He logged 10 saves in Seattle before the trade and is now pitching for the Astros in the postseason.

Corey Knebel (30): As a Brewer, Knebel was dominant in 2017 and 2018 but then missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and then struggled in limited action in 2020. After being traded to the Dodgers for 2021, Knebel seemed to get things back on a good track. Despite missing a decent chunk of the season with a lat strain, he still logged 25 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.45, 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He also got 5 2/3 innings of work for the Dodgers in the postseason, racking up 11 strikeouts and allowing a pair of earned runs. He’s excellent when on the mound but interest will likely be tempered by question marks surrounding his health.

Ryan Tepera (34): Tepera had the best season of his career in 2021, split between both Chicago clubs. Overall, he threw 61 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.79, a personal best. His 30.8% strikeout rate was better than every previous season of his, except for the shortened 2020 campaign. His 7.9% walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year in 2015. Tepera’s deal with the Cubs last winter only came with a guarantee of $800K, a figure he’ll handily top this time around.

Hector Neris (33): Neris racked up 28 saves in 2019 with an ERA of 2.93. Since then, however, inconsistency has bumped him out of the closer’s seat. Over 2020 and 2021, he’s thrown 96 innings with a 3.84 ERA and 17 saves. His strikeout rate over those two campaigns is an excellent 30.3%, but his walk rate is higher than average at 10.9%. He likely won’t be any team’s first choice for the closer job but could be an appealing fallback option.

Daniel Hudson (35): Hudson’s season started out great, as he threw 32 2/3 innings for Washington, with an ERA of 2.20, buoyed by a strikeout rate of 37.8% and walk rate of 5.5%, both of which are excellent. But after being dealt to the Padres at the deadline, things mostly went in the wrong direction. In 19 innings for San Diego, his ERA shot up to 5.21 and his walk rate up to 10.8%. His strikeout rate, while still excellent, dropped to 32.5%.

Collin McHugh (35): McHugh was on and off the IL all season but still threw 65 excellent innings in 37 games for the Rays. He struck out 30% of the batters he faced and walked only 4.9%. His 1.55 ERA was fourth-best in MLB among pitchers with at least 60 innings, behind only Jacob deGrom, Emmanuel Clase and Ranger Suarez. McHugh missed all of 2020 due to injuries and then signed a one-year, $1.8MM deal with the Rays. After a year of health and effectiveness, he seems on course to top that this winter.

Solid Veterans

Brad Boxberger (34): Boxberger had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, which turned out to be a great pickup for the Brewers. They got 64 2/3 innings out of him in the regular season, with an ERA of 3.34, 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. He also tossed a couple of scoreless innings for them in the NLDS.

Archie Bradley (29): Bradley seemingly turned himself into a different kind of pitcher this year, getting way less strikeouts but way more grounders. In the end, it seemed to work well enough. In 51 innings for Philadelphia, his ERA was 3.71. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a big drop-off, as he was between 22 and 28% in the previous five campaigns. However, his groundball rate was 55.7%, his best since his cup of coffee in 2015.

Jesse Chavez (38): Chavez didn’t sign until late April this year, and even then, it was a minor league deal. He didn’t get selected to the big league club until June. But it turned into a bargain for Atlanta, who got 33 2/3 innings out of Chavez with an ERA of 2.14. His 8.3% walk rate is around league average, but his quality 27.1% strikeout rate was the highest of his career. He’s also added 1 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs so far.

Steve Cishek (36): 2020 was a bad year for Cishek, but he bounced back in 2021 and made 2020 look like a fluke. Leaving aside 2020, Cishek has ten consecutive seasons of throwing at least 44 innings with an ERA below 3.60.  In 2021, he logged 68 1/3 innings for the Angels with an ERA of 3.42.

Tyler Clippard (37): Clippard gave the Diamondbacks 25 1/3 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.20, but there are reasons for concern underlying that. His strikeout rate of 18.9% was his lowest mark since way back in 2008, and his 9.9% walk rate was high highest since 2017. Perhaps that’s somewhat attributable to the shoulder injury that caused him to miss the first half of the season.

Jeurys Familia (32): The Mets signed Familia to a three-year, $30MM deal prior to the 2019 season. Over the course of that deal, he logged 146 innings with an ERA of 4.62, strikeout rate of 24.1% and walk rate of 13.4%. 2021 was a bit better than the first couple years of the deal, as his ERA was 3.94 and his strikeout rate shot up to 27.5% and his walk rate dropped to 10.3%.

Luis Garcia (35): Garcia signed a minor league deal with the Yankees this past offseason, but was released in July and caught on with the Cardinals. Over the final few months, Garcia had one of his best stretches in years. In 33 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24, his lowest since 2017. His strikeout rate was above average at 25.2% and his walk rate was an excellent 5.9%.

Yimi Garcia (31): Garcia got some time as closer for the Marlins in the first half of the season, racking up 15 saves with an ERA of 3.47. Since a deadline deal to the Astros, he’s been a setup guy, logging 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.48. However, his strikeout and walk rates both improved after the deal, suggesting there’s bad luck contributing to that high ERA.

Mychal Givens (32): It was a tale of two seasons for Givens. His first half with the Rockies was excellent, as he pitched 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.73, strikeout rate of 27.4% and walk rate of 11.3%. After a deadline deal to the Reds, he logged 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.22, strikeout rate of 21.7% and walk rate of 14.1%.

Chris Martin (36): It’s been a strange season for Martin as his strikeout rate plummeted but he has managed to stay effective. Over 2019 and 2020, he threw 73 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.81, strikeout rate of 30.1% and walk rate of 2.8%. In 43 1/3 innings in 2021, his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.2%, although his walk rate stayed low at 3.3% and his ERA only went up to 3.95.

Adam Ottavino (36): Ottavino’s best season was 2018 with the Rockies. In 77 2/3 innings, he had an ERA of 2.43, strikeout rate of 36.2% and walk rate of 11.17%. Since then, he’s still been a solid contributor but things have generally trended in the wrong direction. In 2021, he pitched 62 innings, with an ERA of 4.21, strikeout rate of 25.7% and walk rate of 12.7%.

Yusmeiro Petit (37): Petit logged 78 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.92. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 11.8%, the lowest of his career except for a cup of coffee in 2012. But his walk rate stayed exceptionally low at 3.8%. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has consistently seen his real results outperform the advanced metrics.

Hansel Robles (31): It’s been a mercurial few seasons for Robles. 2019 was excellent, as he notched 23 saves for the Angels, throwing 72 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.48. In 2020, his ERA blasted up to 10.26, leading to his non-tender by the Halos. He was picked up by the Twins and threw 44 innings with an ERA of 4.91 and strikeout rate of 22.9%, recording 10 saves and getting traded to the Red Sox. For Boston, he threw another 25 innings with an ERA of 3.60 and a much-improved strikeout rate of 30.3%.

Sergio Romo (39): Things mostly trended in the wrong direction for Romo in 2021. Over 61 2/3 innings for the Athletics, he recorded an ERA of 4.67, the highest of his career. His 23.2% strikeout rate was tied for the worst of his career, matching his rate from 2013. And his 8.1% walk rate was his highest since 2017. Signed to a one-year, $2.25MM contract last winter, he’ll probably be looking at a lower salary in 2022.

Joe Smith (38): 2021 was going terribly for Smith, as he pitched 21 2/3 innings for Houston with an ERA of 7.48. However, after getting traded to Seattle, he evened things out with 18 innings with an ERA of just 2.00. On the whole, his 4.99 ERA for the year was the worst of his career. His 19.7% strikeout rate on the year was subpar, but his 4.6% walk rate was quite good.

Joakim Soria (38): Soria was one of few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season. He pitched 29 1/3 innings out of their bullpen with an ERA of 4.30 and was then flipped to the Blue Jays for a couple of prospects. Due to various injuries, he only got logged eight innings for the Jays down the stretch. Overall, he notched 37 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.06, strikeout rate of 25.2% and walk rate of 7.5%.

Wildcards

Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen is one of the most unique players in baseball, having the ability to hit, play the outfield, pitch as a starter or reliever. His best work has been out of the bullpen, but he’s apparently looking for a rotation job this winter. He made 21 starts in 2014 but only five since, making him fairly unproven in that regard. However, his numbers as a reliever have been solid at times. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 297 1/3 total innings with an ERA of 3.39. Injuries have limited him over the past few years, however. In 2021, his ERA was 5.59 over a 29-inning sample. If he doesn’t find the rotation job he seeks, he could make for a solid bullpen addition somewhere, as long as his health cooperates.

Jimmy Nelson (33): Nelson had a dominant season as a starter in 2017, but injuries wiped out his 2018, most of his 2019 and all of his 2020 season. 2021 looked to be a bounceback, as he pitched 29 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen with an ERA of 1.86, strikeout rate of 37.9% and walk rate of 11.2%. Unfortunately, it was announced in early August that he would require Tommy John surgery, which will wipe out most or all of his 2022. Teams have occasionally given multi-year contracts to players rehabbing from Tommy John, with Ken Giles‘ deal with the Mariners being one recent example.

Trevor Rosenthal (32): The Athletics signed Rosenthal to a one-year, $11MM deal in the offseason but never got any production in return. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in April and went on the IL. In July, while trying to work his way back onto the mound, he tore a labrum in his hip and had to undergo another surgery, this one ending his season. With a lost season and two surgeries, Rosenthal will have to prove his health before getting interest in free agency. But given his past run of success from 2012 to 2017 and his bounceback campaign in 2020, he will surely garner his share of interest if he can get himself mended.

Kirby Yates (35): Yates was apparently close to signing with Atlanta for one-year, $9MM before they noticed an elbow issue and pulled the deal off the table. The Blue Jays, knowing about the elbow issue, decided to take a chance and signed him to an incentive-laden deal with a $5.5MM guarantee. The gamble didn’t pay off as Yates underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of March and never got into a game in 2021. Yates was flat out incredible in 2019, racking up 41 saves over 60 2/3 innings with an ERA of 1.19, strikeout rate of 41.6% and walk rate of 5.3%. However, injuries limited him to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020 and then wiped out his 2021. If he successfully rehabs, he could be the biggest buy-low wildcard candidate of them all.

Depth Options

Matt Andriese (32): Since moving to the bullpen full-time, Andriese has tantalized with decent strikeout and walk rates, but hasn’t had the results to match. Over the past four seasons, he’s tallied 229 2/3 innings with a 24% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate, both of which are slightly better than league average. However, his ERA in that time is 4.98. Advanced metrics think he should be better, but that seems to always be the case. His BABIP this season was .392, helping his ERA balloon up to 5.21. If some team can figure out a way get better results, he could be a buy-low success story. Last winter, he was signed by the Red Sox for a $2.1MM guarantee, was designated for assignment in August, signed with the Mariners and was designated again.

Shawn Armstrong (31): Armstrong logged 36 innings in 2021 between the Orioles and Rays, putting up an ERA of 6.75, but near-average strikeout and walk rates of 26.7% and 9.1%, respectively.

Cam Bedrosian (30): After five straight solid seasons in the Angels’ bullpen, Bedrosian took a step backward in 2021. From 2016-2020, he threw 225 innings with an ERA of 3.20, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.  In 2021, split between Cincinnati, Oakland and Philadelphia, he logged 25 innings with an ERA of 5.04, 19.8% strikeout rate and 14.7% walk rate.

Scott Blewett (25): Blewett worked five innings of one-run ball this year, but he did so with five walks and four strikeouts. The 25-year-old spent most of the season at Triple-A, struggling to keep the ball in the yard en route to a 6.39 ERA.

Brad Brach (36): Brach logged 30 innings of the Reds ‘pen, but without much to show for it. His ERA was 6.30 and his walk rate was 12.9%, though his strikeout rate was still around league average at 23.7%.

Jhoulys Chacin (34): Chacin spent almost the entire season in multi-inning relief with the Rockies. His 4.34 ERA is decent for a pitcher whose home games are in Coors Field, but that came with less impressive strikeout and walk numbers.

Tyler Chatwood (32): It was a season to forget for Chatwood, as his one-year deal with the Blue Jays only kept him on the roster until the end of July. He was designated for assignment, signed with the Giants and then designated for assignment again at the end of August. Overall, he threw 32 innings on the year with an ERA of 5.63 and a bloated walk rate of 14.5%, though he still had a robust strikeout rate of 26.2%.

Kyle Crick (29): Crick had a couple nice seasons early in his career, but he’s struggled of late. He walked a massive 17.8% of opponents this year with the Pirates and was let go. Crick showed much better in a brief stint with the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate but didn’t get a big league look in Chicago.

Wade Davis (36): 2021 was a third-consecutive frustrating season for Davis. He threw 42 2/3 innings for the Royals this year, with an ERA of 6.75, along with mediocre strikeout and walk rates of 20% and 10%, respectively.

Chris Devenski (31): Devenski underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021, making him unlikely to contribute much in 2022. He also missed most of 2020 because of elbow issues, meaning he’s only tallied 11 innings over the past two years combined. He had two excellent campaigns for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, but saw his numbers slide a bit for 2018 and 2019. He’ll likely have health questions hovering over him until he can convince teams otherwise.

Rafael Dolis (34): Dolis had a great four-year stretch in Japan and parlayed that into a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. The first year, 2020, went quite well, as Dolis had an ERA of 1.50 over 24 innings in the shortened campaign, along with a 31% strikeout rate. However, 2021 wasn’t nearly as pleasant, as his ERA shot up to 5.63 over 32 innings. His 14% walk rate in 2020, which was already high, shot up to 17.3% in 2021, though the strikeout rate was still good at 25%. Dolis cleared waivers and finished the season well in Triple-A, throwing 11 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.59, 26.4% strikeout rate and a still-high walk rate of 13.2%.

Jake Faria (28): Faria soaked up 32 2/3 innings of long relief for the D-Backs but posted only a 5.51 ERA before being outrighted off the roster.

Luke Farrell (30): Farrell tossed 24 2/3 frames for the Twins, posting a 4.74 ERA with slightly worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers.

Michael Feliz (29): Feliz earned his frequent flier points in 2021, spending time with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Boston and Oakland. In total, he threw 20 innings with an ERA of 7.20. However, his 24.4% strikeout rate was still around average, and he reduced his walk rate to 7.8%, after being in double digits for the previous four seasons.

Shane Greene (33): The typically-productive Greene is coming off a rough showing in 2021. He got off to a late start after lingering in free agency until May, then struggled between both the Braves and Dodgers. Over 23 2/3 frames, he managed just a 7.23 ERA with a career-high 12.4% walk rate.

Jesse Hahn (32): It was mostly a lost season for Hahn, as he threw just 3 1/2 innings before going on the IL with shoulder issues and never returned. Due to various injuries, he’s thrown just 25 1/3 big league innings over the past four years.

David Hale (34): Hale posted a 6.41 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with the Phillies. He was cut loose in June and didn’t catch on with another club for the rest of the season.

Heath Hembree (33): Hembree’s massive 34.2% strikeout rate will surely attract interest from clubs, but the fly-ball pitcher had significant issues keeping the ball in the yard with the Reds this past season. Hembree’s results were far better after a late-season waiver claim by the Mets.

David Hess (28): Hess was tagged for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, splitting the 2021 season between the Rays and Marlins.

Greg Holland (36): Holland had a nice bounceback campaign in 2020 but couldn’t repeat the feat in 2021. His 1.91 ERA from last year shot up to 4.85 this year. His strikeout and walk rates also both went from better than average to worse than average.

Tommy Hunter (35): Hunter signed a minor league deal with the Mets last winter and logged eight innings without allowing an earned run before heading to the injured list May 21st with a lower back issue. He went to the Rays as part of the Rich Hill deal but didn’t pitch again on the year.

Brandon Kintzler (37): The groundball specialist had a terrible year with the Phillies, throwing 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 6.37. However, his BABIP was .369, well above his previous seasons, meaning there could be some bad luck in there. Regardless, he was released by the Phillies in early August and didn’t latch on anywhere else over the final two months of the season.

Josh Lindblom (34): Lindblom had a great run in the KBO but struggled over his two seasons in Milwaukee.

Keynan Middleton (28): Middleton threw 31 innings for the Mariners this year with an ERA of 4.94, strikeout rate of 17.1% and walk rate of 13.6%. He finishes the year with between four and five years’ service time, meaning he could come with an extra year of control for any team that signs him for 2022.

Darren O’Day (39): Due to various injuries, O’Day only pitched 10 2/3 innings this year. He’s still fairly effective when healthy but hasn’t pitched more than 20 innings since 2017.

Blake Parker (37): Signed by the Guardians to a minor league deal last winter, Parker ended up being a solid contributor for their bullpen, logging 43 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.09. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 20%, his lowest mark since 2016 and well below his 36.2% rate from last year.

David Phelps (35): Phelps got out to an excellent start this season, throwing 10 1/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ pen. He had an ERA of 0.87, strikeout rate of 35.7% and walk rate of 9.5%. Unfortunately, he went on the IL in mid-May with a lat strain that required season-ending surgery. His recovery from that procedure will determine how much interest he gets. If he’s healthy, he could be an interesting buy-low target.

Adam Plutko (30): It was an awful campaign for Plutko in 2021, as he threw 56 1/3 innings for the Orioles with an ERA of 6.71. His strikeout rate of 17.3% and walk rate of 10.6% were both worse than league average. He was designated for assignment in August and cleared waivers.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (30): Ponce de Leon had some nice seasons as a swingman early in his career, but 2021 was a struggle. He worked 33 1/3 innings of 6.21 ERA for the Cardinals before being released in September.

Erasmo Ramirez (32): Ramirez logged 26 2/3 innings for the Tigers this year, with a 5.74 ERA and subpar 18.3% strikeout rate. However, his 4.6% walk rate was very good. He was placed on release waivers by the club in August.

Sal Romano (28): Romano bounced around the league via waivers and minor league free agency all season. Between three clubs, he tossed 25 innings of 6.12 ERA ball.

Ervin Santana (39): Santana worked 65 1/3 innings over just 38 appearances, pitching primarily as a long man for the Royals. The longtime big league starter posted a 4.68 ERA.

Bryan Shaw (34): Shaw struggled mightily with the Rockies and Mariners from 2018-20, but he recaptured some of his old bullpen workhorse form after returning to Cleveland this year. The veteran worked 77 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball. His peripherals didn’t support that caliber of run prevention, but Shaw soaked up plenty of medium-leverage innings.

Burch Smith (32): Smith pitched 43 1/3 innings out of Oakland’s bullpen, but with an ERA of 5.40. His strikeout rate, which was above 23% going into the year, plummeted to 14.9%. His walk rate was a very good 5.9%, however. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in September.

Hunter Strickland (33): Strickland had his best season in years in 2021. Between the Rays, Angels and Brewers, he threw 58 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.61, 24% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. He’s had to settle for minor league deals in recent offseasons but could do better this winter after a strong campaign.

Cesar Valdez (37): Valdez surprisingly became the Orioles closer for a time this season, with his low-velocity style not matching the typical profile for that job. However, it didn’t last, as he was bumped from that role and later designated for assignment, re-selected to the team and then later designated a second time. Overall, he logged 46 big league innings with an ERA of 5.87.

Dan Winkler (32): Winkler pitched 39 2/3 innings for the Cubs in 2021 with an ERA of 5.22. His strikeout and walk rates both were the worst of his career. He was released by the club in August.

Brandon Workman (33): Workman signed a one-year deal with the Cubs last winter but only pitched eight innings for them with an ERA of 6.75. He latched on with the Red Sox and pitched 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95 before being designated for assignment after the trade deadline and electing free agency.

Mike Wright Jr. (32): Wright worked 18 innings of 5.50 ERA this season for the White Sox. He has ample starting experience as well.

Limited Time This Season*

Kyle Barraclough (31)

Austin Brice (29)

Edgar Garcia (25)

Chi Chi Gonzalez (30)

Jake Jewell (28)

Derek Law (31)

Luis Madero (24)

Shelby Miller (31)

Anthony Swarzak (36)

Konner Wade (30)

Taylor Williams (30)

Players With Options

Craig Kimbrel, $16MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Kimbrel was unbelievable with the Cubs in 2021. Over 36 2/3 innings, his ERA was barely visible at 0.49 and his strikeout rate was 46.7%. After being dealt to the other Chicago club, his ERA was 5.09 and the strikeout rate dropped to 36.7%. Taken as a whole, it’s still 59 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.26 and 42.6% strikeout rate. It was recently reported that the White Sox plan on picking up the option and discussing Kimbrel in trades this offseason.

Joe Kelly, $12MM club option with $4MM buyout (34): Kelly had a great year in 2021, throwing 44 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. However, he’s entering his age-34 season and has an inconsistent track record. The club might pass on this net $8MM decision and focus resources towards a rotation that could lose Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw and a lineup that could lose Corey Seager and Chris Taylor. Then again, the bullpen could be losing Kelly, Kenley Jansen, Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel.

Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (33): The Red Sox seem likely to buy Richards out. He struggled mightily as a starter through the season’s first half. A move to the bullpen initially brought much improved results, but Richards tailed off again towards the end of the year. Over 26 1/3 innings of relief, he posted a 3.42 ERA with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Richards could draw interest as either a starter or bullpen arm this winter if Boston cuts him loose.

Mark Melancon, $7MM mutual option with $1MM buyout (37): Melancon’s one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres came with a mutual option for 2022, initially valued at $5MM. There were $2MM of incentives available based on games finished, maxing out at 45. Since he finished 53 games for the Friars this year, he has increased the value of that mutual option to the $7MM maximum. He saved 39 games for the club this year, pitching 64 2/3 innings with 2.23 ERA. The Padres would surely love to have their closer back at that price, but Melancon may be able to get multiple years in free agency. Still, it will be hard to turn down a salary more than double what he made this year. Mutual options rarely get exercised by both sides, but this is one of the odd ones that could make sense for all parties.

Craig Stammen, $4MM club option with $1MM buyout (38): Stammen was a workhorse for the Padres in 2021, throwing 88 1/3 innings, tied for his highest tally since 2010. He had an ERA of 3.06, near-average strikeout rate of 23.6% and excellent walk rate of 3.7%. For a net $3MM decision, it seems reasonable enough for the club to pick up that option, even though the Padres are running franchise-high payrolls lately.

Pierce Johnson, $3MM club option with $1MM buyout (31): After a strong 2019 season in Japan, Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres, which has worked out well for both sides. Over the two seasons, Johnson threw 78 2/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA. The walk rate is a tad high at 11.1%, but the 32.1% strikeout rate is excellent. Given that solid performance and modest price, this option seems likely to be picked up.

Josh Tomlin, $1.25MM club option with $250K buyout (37): Tomlin pitched 49 1/3 innings for Atlanta this year, but with a bloated 6.57 ERA. He did post a career-high BABIP, suggesting that there could be some bad luck in there. But with such a modest buyout and such poor surface numbers, it seems likely the club takes that route.

Dellin Betances, $1MM player option with no buyout (34): Once one of the most-feared relievers in baseball, Betances has been hampered by injuries in recent years. 2018 was the last time he logged more than 12 innings. The Mets took a gamble on him prior to the 2020 season, signing him to a one-year deal with player options for 2021 and 2022. Betances triggered his option for 2021 but then only pitched a single inning for the Mets this year before shoulder woes put him on the shelf and led to season-ending surgery in June. His player option had various escalators, all of which he missed because of the injuries, that could have increased its value to $3MM. Instead, it will be just $1MM, which he seems likely to exercise, given his uncertain health outlook.

Keone Kela, $800K club option with no buyout (29): Kela signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract with the Padres last winter but only logged 10 2/3 innings before going on the shelf and requiring Tommy John surgery. His contract contained a clause that, in the event of such a circumstance, the Padres would get a club option for 2022. The surgery took place in May, meaning Kela will likely miss some of next season but could still return before the midway point. Given Kela’s history of solid results and that the option is just barely above league average, it seems an easy call for the Padres to pick it up.

* Between 50 and 75 batters faced in relief

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, starting pitchers, left-handed relief.

We’ve gone position by position to cover the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR over the past few weeks. We’ve already gone around the diamond and covered the starting pitching market, leaving just the relievers remaining.

Today, we’ll look at the southpaws. It’s a rather sparse class at the top, meaning teams may be left to scour the non-tender or trade markets in their search for relief targets. It’s also possible teams look into some of the free agent starters available with an eye towards identifying a candidate who could be particularly well-suited for a bullpen conversion.

Top Tier

Aaron Loup (34 next April): A longtime member of the Blue Jays’ relief corps, Loup has bounced around the league a bit in journeyman fashion over the past couple seasons. He’s coming off an utterly dominant showing with the Mets, though, posting a 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings. Loup punched out 26.1% of opposing hitters while walking just 7.3% and racked up grounders on over half the balls in play against him while allowing just six extra-base hits all year.

No one could reasonably expect Loup to continue to be that unhittable. He doesn’t throw hard, and he’s been more consistently good than overpowering throughout his career. Loup rarely walks batters, though, and he’s always done well to keep the ball in the yard and avoid especially damaging contact. Going back two seasons, he’s also held right-handed hitters to a .205/.276/.311 line with similarly strong strikeout and walk numbers. Despite being a low-slot lefty, Loup doesn’t need to only be deployed situationally. He’d be a valuable addition to any bullpen and stands a good chance of landing a multi-year deal this winter.

Brooks Raley (33): Unlike Loup, Raley didn’t have an especially impressive ERA (4.78). That belies swing-and-miss stuff that’s arguably the best in the class. Raley punched out 31.7% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on 14.5% of his offerings, a mark that ranked 40th among the 255 relievers with 30+ innings pitched. Teams are always looking for strikeout stuff in the middle to late innings, and Raley has that despite lacking huge velocity.

Raley also has back-to-back seasons ranking as the best pitcher in the league at suppressing average exit velocity and hard contact. That’s probably not a coincidence, although there’s a rather notable discrepancy based on the opposing hitter’s handedness. Raley has been utterly dominant against lefties (.195/.262/.221), but right-handed hitters tagged him for six homers and a .259/.333/.463 slash line. With the three-batter minimum rule in place, teams could see those drastic platoon splits as a red flag, but Raley’s complete control of left-handed hitters could still land him a multi-year deal.

Andrew Chafin (31): Chafin has been a reliable bullpen workhorse for a while, and he’s coming off a career-best showing between the Cubs and A’s. He posted a 1.83 ERA over 68 2/3 frames, walking a personal-low 7.1% of batters faced. Chafin’s strikeout and ground-ball rates are only around league average, but his slider befuddled hitters from both sides of the plate, and a signing team could have him turn to that wipeout offering a bit more often in hopes of racking up a few more whiffs.

Chafin was leveraged situationally quite a bit early in his career, but he’s adapted to the three-batter minimum era with ease. Right-handed hitters have just a .205/.262/.331 line against him going back to the start of 2020, while he’s held southpaws to a .190/.266/.267 mark in that time. As with Loup and Raley, Chafin has a good shot at a two-year contract.

Tony Watson (36): Watson’s a quietly reliable middle relief option. He’s not overpowering, but he throws strikes and generally induces a fair amount of grounders. Watson posted a 3.92 ERA in 57 1/3 innings this year split between the Angels and Giants, his tenth sub-4.00 showing in eleven big league seasons. At his age, Watson looks less likely than the others in this tier to land a second guaranteed year, but he’s one of the better bets around to offer solid production year in and year out.

Former All-Stars Looking To Bounce Back

Brad Hand (32): Hand was one of the game’s best relievers from 2016-20. His velocity showed a worrisome dip last season and resulted in Cleveland declining his club option, but Hand signed with the Nationals and continued to perform fairly well through this season’s first half. He tossed 42 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with Washington, albeit with a concerning drop in strikeouts despite his velocity bouncing back.

Traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline, Hand had a terrible month in Toronto and was designated for assignment. He had a fine final month after being claimed off waivers by the Mets, but his swing-and-miss stuff was never present at any of his three stops. Hand has an accomplished track record, and his bottom line numbers with Washington and New York were fine. But the huge drop-off in swinging strikes is going to be a red flag for teams.

Sean Doolittle (35): Doolittle was a dominant closer for a good chunk of the last decade, but he missed most of last season with injury and was designated for assignment by the Reds midway through this year. Doolittle’s four-seam fastball heavy approach has always led to high fly-ball rates, but his profile has become more extreme with age. That might make him an imperfect fit in hitter-friendly home ballparks, but Doolittle still has some selling points.

He continues to run one of the higher rates of infield fly balls in the league, racking up plenty of harmless pop-ups. And while his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate have dipped from peak levels, they remain right around the league average overall. Doolittle might not be an ideal high-leverage option at this point in his career, but he could still be a solid middle innings piece in the right environment.

Andrew Miller (36): Miller has had an ERA above 4.00 in three of the last four years. His once-elite strikeout rate dipped to league average this past season, and opposing hitters are no longer chasing pitches outside the strike zone the way they used to as Miller’s average fastball velocity has fallen below 90 MPH.

Miller’s a respected clubhouse presence, and he’s continued to stifle same-handed hitters. Over the past two seasons, lefties have just a .176/.260/.259 line against him. Miller can probably still be effective in a limited situational role, but the three-batter minimum makes it impossible to entirely avoid righties, who have teed off for a .343/.446/.549 line off him since the beginning of 2020. Now 36 years old, Miller’s days of overpowering everyone he faces look to be behind him.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

Andrew Heaney (30): Heaney will get another chance in a team’s rotation next season, although he found himself working in relief with the Yankees down the stretch thanks to a poor year. Heaney posted very good strikeout and walk numbers, but he was one of the most home run prone pitchers in the league, leading to a 5.83 ERA. He’ll be a bounceback rotation candidate, but continued struggles could lead him back to the bullpen at some point.

José Quintana (33): Quintana’s a career-long starter who got pushed into the bullpen midway through this season after struggling in the rotation. He could draw interest in either capacity this winter. Quintana somewhat bizarrely struck out batters at a career-best rate in 2021, although it came with an uptick in walks and home runs. His 4.18 ERA in 28 innings of relief is middling, but Quintana’s walk percentage did come way down after he was moved into shorter stints.

Kwang-hyun Kim (33): Kim has a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 innings since coming over from the KBO, much of that time spent as a starter. That’s very strong bottom line production, but Kim has gotten there with underwhelming peripherals driven by extremely low strikeout totals. Kim’s weak contact, ground-ball driven profile paired perfectly with the Cardinals’ stellar infield, but it’s not clear that’d translate nearly as well with a lesser defensive team.

Wade LeBlanc (37): LeBlanc offered some stabilizing innings for the Cardinals this season while working in a swing capacity. The veteran underwent season-ending elbow surgery in early September, although he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. LeBlanc doesn’t throw hard or miss many bats, but he’s a capable strike-thrower who could offer starting and/or multi-inning relief depth for clubs.

Matt Moore (32): Moore had a solid 2020 campaign with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball. The former All-Star’s return to the U.S. didn’t go as planned, however, as Moore struggled badly enough to lose his spot in the Phillies’ rotation midseason. He continued to struggle upon moving to the bullpen, working to a 5.40 ERA with a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate in relief. He might be limited to minor league offers this winter.

Hyeon-jong Yang (34): Yang split his season between the Rangers’ rotation and bullpen. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 20 1/3 frames of relief, striking out just 11.8% of batters faced. It has already been reported that the longtime Kia Tigers star would like to return to his native South Korea.

Depth Types

Fernando Abad (36): Abad worked 17 2/3 innings of 5.60 ERA ball late in the season for the Orioles, his first MLB action since 2019. He’ll probably be looking at minor league offers again this winter.

Luis Avilán (32): Avilán’s a generally accomplished lefty specialist. Unfortunately, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in late April and could miss the first few months of next season.

Alberto Baldonado (29): A longtime minor leaguer, Baldonado got a look with the Nationals late in the season. He missed a decent number of bats but struggled with control and posted an 8.44 ERA.

Travis Bergen (28): Bergen had a 1.69 ERA for the Blue Jays, but it came with just six strikeouts and eight walks in 10 2/3 innings before he was outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Jesse Biddle (30): Biddle gets a lot of grounders, but his velocity dipped a bit this season and he’s had persistent issues with walks. He was outrighted off the Braves’ roster in May.

Ryan Buchter (35): Buchter posted four straight seasons of sub-3.00 ERA ball from 2016-19. He’s fallen on hard times over the past couple years, though, including a 6.61 ERA in 16 1/3 frames with the D-Backs before he was released in August.

Alex Claudio (30): Claudio has had some good seasons despite one of the league’s softest fastballs, thriving on command and grounders. His once-pristine walk rates have spiked in recent seasons, however, and the Angels cut him loose in July after he posted a 5.51 ERA across 32 2/3 innings.

Ross Detwiler (36): Almost out of nowhere, Detwiler shattered his previous career-high by striking out 27.1% of opposing hitters this past season. Despite the punchouts, his 9.6% swinging strike rate was still well below the league average, and Detwiler’s formerly elite ground-ball rates dropped off.

Derek Holland (35): Holland has had an ERA above 5.00 in each of the past three seasons. His strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates were all within the realm of the league average this year and he’s capable of shouldering multiple innings out of the bullpen.

T.J. McFarland (32): McFarland is a ground-ball specialist who is best deployed against lefty hitters. He rarely strikes batters out, but he induces grounders on around two-thirds of balls in play and has held same-handed opponents to a .221/.256/.453 line going back to 2020.

Tommy Milone (35): Milone’s a depth swingman option. He throws plenty of strikes and typically earns himself some big league time every season. But he’s one of the softest throwers in the sport, leading to low strikeout totals and a tendency to give up a lot of home runs.

Sean Nolin (32): Nolin returned to the majors in a swing capacity with the Nationals this season. He made ten appearances (five out of the bullpen) and worked 26 2/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball.

Daniel Norris (28): Norris is still relatively young and has flashed high-end talent in the past, but he’s coming off a nightmarish second half. Solid peripherals led the Brewers to take a deadline day flier on Norris despite his 5.89 ERA with the Tigers. Everything went backwards in Milwaukee, though, as his strikeouts dropped while his walk and homer rates skyrocketed.

Josh Osich (33): Osich typically posts quality ground-ball rates, but he hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.50 since his 2015 rookie campaign with the Giants. He tossed 14 1/3 innings with a 5.02 mark for the Reds this year before being outrighted in late July.

Nick Ramirez (32): Ramirez soaked up plenty of innings in long relief with the Tigers a couple years ago. He hasn’t gotten a very long look over the last couple years, tossing 31 innings of 5.87 ERA ball since the start of 2020.

Kyle Ryan (30): Ryan worked 61 frames with a 3.54 ERA for the Cubs back in 2019, but he’s struggled in limited action over the past couple seasons. Ryan generates plenty of ground-balls, but he doesn’t miss many bats and he’s had difficulty keeping runs off the board recently. Chicago passed him through outright waivers in mid-August.

Héctor Santiago (34): Santiago returned to the majors with the Mariners this year after not pitching in 2020. The veteran did some nice work as a multi-inning relief option, soaking up 26 1/3 frames of 3.42 ERA ball with solid strikeout and walk numbers over thirteen outings. He was suspended for eighty games in late July after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He’ll need to sit out the first three-plus weeks next season to complete that ban.

Tyler Webb (31): Webb pitched to a 2.08 ERA as recently as 2020. This past season was a disaster, though, as he walked 20.7% of opposing hitters on his way to a 13.22 ERA in 16 1/3 frames. Webb was passed through outright waivers in early June.

Players with Options

José Álvarez (32): Exercising Álvarez’s $1.5MM club option (which contains a $100K buyout) should be a very easy call for the Giants. He worked 64 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, inducing grounders on a little more than half the balls in play against him.

Jake Diekman (35): The A’s have a $4MM club option on Diekman’s services for 2022. That comes with a $750K buyout, making it a $3.25MM call for the Oakland front office. That one could seemingly go either way, as Diekman still missed plenty of bats (31.7% strikeout rate, 13.2% swinging strike percentage) but he’s always struggled with control and had uncharacteristic home run issues in 2021.

Martín Pérez (30): The Red Sox can bring Pérez back for $6MM or buy him out for $500K. The latter looks more likely after Pérez lost his rotation spot in early August. He’s been fine but hardly overwhelming since moving to relief, working to a 4.50 ERA across 14 innings. Teams could consider him as a depth option for the rotation or bullpen this winter, assuming the Sox indeed cut him loose.

Joely Rodríguez (30): The Yankees hold a $3MM club option on Rodríguez for 2022. Picked up from the Rangers at the trade deadline alongside Joey Gallo, Rodríguez pitched well down the stretch. Over 19 frames, he worked to a 2.84 ERA with a strong 50% ground-ball rate. The option looks affordable enough to be picked up.

Justin Wilson (34): Wilson has a $2.3MM player option for next season. If he declines, the Reds would hold either a $7.15MM club option or have to buy him out for $1.15MM. Cincinnati would almost certainly not exercise their end of the option, so Wilson has to decide whether to return for $2.3MM or take the buyout and hope to top the $1.15MM difference on the open market. It wasn’t a great season for the generally reliable Wilson, who posted a 5.29 ERA between the Yankees and Reds. His ERA was much better following a midseason trade to Cincinnati, but his strikeout and walk numbers at both stops were underwhelming.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, starting pitcher

We’ve taken a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR in recent weeks. With the position players now all covered, we turn our attention to the starting pitching market.

Each winter, free agency offers a wide variety of starting pitching tiers. There are usually top-of-the-rotation stars, innings-eating types for the middle and back end, and reclamation projects who have shown well in the past but disappointed in their platform seasons. This offseason will be no exception.

Here are the rotation options slated to hit the open market in the coming weeks:

A Tier Unto Himself

• Max Scherzer (37 years old in 2022): The most dominant pitcher of the current generation, Scherzer could potentially win a fourth Cy Young Award after tossing 179 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a huge 34.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate — the third-lowest mark of his storied career. Scherzer is as dominant as he’s ever been, and the only thing that will cap his market this offseason is his age. Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros for these same age-37 and age-38 seasons, and Scherzer can justifiably look to eclipse that mark in both years and average annual value. He, somewhat incredibly, has a shot at a second nine-figure deal in free agency this winter. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer (both due to being traded midseason and having previously rejected one in his career).

Other Top of the Market Options

• Robbie Ray (30): Back on Aug. 13, I took a look at how the Jays had struck gold on their decision to jump the market and re-sign Ray right out of the gate in free agency. In the 10 starts he made after the time I published that piece, Ray pitched 63 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with a 36% strikeout rate, solidifying himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Ray’s success is largely driven by heretofore unseen levels of command; after walking 12.9 percent of his opponents from 2017-20, Ray walked just 6.9 percent of the batters he faced in 2021. His 32.1% strikeout rate is the second-best of his career. His AL-best 193 1/3 innings were a career-high. Some clubs will be skeptical about his ability to maintain that vastly improved command, but Ray has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract of five or six years in length after he rejects a qualifying offer.
• Kevin Gausman (31): Gausman’s decision to accept a qualifying offer last year looks quite shrewd. The right-hander might’ve been able to command a two- or three-year deal on the heels of his 2020 breakout, but he bet on himself with that one-year deal and improved across the board. Gausman’s 192 frames and 2.81 ERA were both sixth-best among qualified starters, while his 29.2% strikeout rate and 22.8 K-BB% both ranked eighth. Over his past 251 2/3 innings, Gausman carries a flat 3.00 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate against a terrific 6.5% walk rate. The former No. 4 overall draft pick now looks like the ace Orioles fans might’ve hoped for when he debuted in 2013. He’s ineligible to receive another qualifying offer and will vie with Ray for the largest overall contract of any starter this offseason.
• Marcus Stroman (30): Stroman doesn’t miss bats at the level of the other top arms on this list, but he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers and has better command than most of the names on this list. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in four of the past six seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2020 (when he tore a calf muscle and opted out of the remainder of the season) and in 2018, when he was limited to 19 starts by shoulder fatigue. That’s the only arm injury Stroman has ever had, and the 3.48 ERA he’s compiled over his past four seasons ranks 23rd among 138 qualified starters since 2017. This year’s 3.02 ERA ranked ninth among qualified pitchers. Fielding-independent metrics have never been quite as bullish on Stroman because of his below-average strikeout rate, but his age, durability, premium command and huge ground-ball rates make him one of the market’s top starters. He can’t receive a second qualifying offer and could command a five-year deal himself this winter.
• Carlos Rodon (29): On July 18, Rodon held the Astros to one hit with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. He hasn’t topped five innings in a start since. Were it not for an ominous bout of shoulder fatigue that sent Rodon to the IL in August and ostensibly capped him at four to five innings per outing late in the year, he’d be right alongside Ray in AL Cy Young contention. The former No. 3 overall pick broke out with a 2.37 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate that trailed only Corbin Burnes (min. 100 innings pitched). Rodon was questionable for the ALDS but eventually pitched 2 2/3 innings in the ChiSox’ final effort against Houston. He was hitting the upper-90s with his heater, but that brief look may not be enough to allay concerns about his shoulder. Rodon could reject a qualifying offer and look to max out on a shorter multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could go the Gausman/Stroman route — accept a QO and hope a big 2022 showing positions him for a nine-figure deal next winter.

Former Cy Young Winners in their Mid/Late 30s

• Zack Greinke (38): Greinke still provides innings, but his average fastball was down to 89.0 mph in 2021 and he posted a second consecutive ERA north of 4.00. Greinke’s season-long numbers were torpedoed by a poor stretch of four starts to close out the year. His ERA sat at 3.41 as recently as Aug. 23 — albeit with a sub-par 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Still, Greinke is durable and possesses outstanding command. Teams will see him as a workhorse who can provide average or better innings while passing down plenty of knowledge to younger arms. He’s already turned down one qualifying offer, so he can’t receive a second.
• Justin Verlander (39): It was surprising to hear Astros owner Jim Crane say Verlander would be seeking “a contract of some length” recently. The two-time Cy Young winner has thrown just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 postseason due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Houston will make a qualifying offer, and if Verlander is indeed intent on multiple years, he’ll reject. Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s, and his resume speaks for itself. A multi-year deal is risky, but how many arms come with this type of ceiling?
• Corey Kluber (36): Kluber’s comeback looked to be in full swing when he no-hit the Rangers in May. However, he pitched three innings in his next start, went on the injured list for three months, and returned with a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 frames. Kluber still finished with a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings, but his 24 percent strikeout rate was roughly average and his 9.7 percent walk rate was high. That no-no and a dominant outing against the Tigers early in the year stand out, but his season lacked consistency.
• Clayton Kershaw (34): He wasn’t quite peak Kershaw, but the second three-time Cy Young winner on this list rattled off 121 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball with even more promising strikeout (29.5) and walk (4.3) percentages when healthy. Kershaw hit the IL with forearm inflammation in early July and missed two months before returning for four shaky starts down the stretch (15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA). He’s out for the postseason due to renewed forearm discomfort but won’t require surgery, instead receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. There’s huge uncertainty here. If the Dodgers feel he’s healthy enough to make a qualifying offer, perhaps the simplest course would just be for Kershaw to accept.

Mid-Rotation Arms in their Prime

• Anthony DeSclafani (32): DeSclafani was clobbered by the Dodgers this season and posted a 2.21 ERA against all other teams (hat tip to The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee). The end result was a 3.17 ERA in 167 2/3 innings, a slightly below-average strikeout percentage (22.5) and a very strong walk rate (6.2 percent). DeSclafani has some injuries on his track record, most notably an elbow strain that cost him the 2017 season but didn’t require surgery. He’s made 31 starts of sub-4.00 ERA ball in two of the past three seasons and could find interest on a three- or perhaps even four-year deal — depending on whether the Giants make a qualifying offer.
• Jon Gray (30): Gray went down with a forearm issue late in the season and was rocked upon returning, but it was a solid year for the former No. 3 overall draft pick when healthy. Gray throws hard, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground and has solid command. He owns a 4.52 ERA and 4.01 FIP over four prior seasons, and he’s the type of prime-aged, power arm another team could dream on. Colorado opted not to trade him at the deadline, so a qualifying offer seems likely, as they’d otherwise stand to lose him without compensation.
• Steven Matz (31): Matz has had an up-and-down career, sometimes looking like a non-tender candidate but sometimes looking like a mid-rotation building block. The latter was the case in 2021, Matz’s lone season with the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 frames with solid strikeout and walk rates. He’s been on the IL every year since 2015, albeit mostly for minor injuries that required only brief absences. He’s done enough for a team to give him a multi-year deal to pitch out of the middle of a rotation.
• Eduardo Rodriguez (29): One of the youngest pitchers on the market this year, Rodriguez will be overlooked by some simply due to a pedestrian 4.74 ERA. However, E-Rod had the best strikeout and walk percentages of his career and largely allayed concerns about his health and durability after missing the 2020 season due to a troubling bout of myocarditis. Rodriguez has a 4.13 ERA with sub-4.00 marks in FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA over his past four seasons. Even if he rejects a qualifying offer, he’ll be a popular multi-year deal candidate.
• Alex Wood (30): Wood barely pitched from 2019-20 and has a history of shoulder troubles, but he made 26 starts with strong cumulative numbers in 2021 (3.83 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 50.8% grounder rate). With an ERA of 3.84 or better in every season of his career outside of those injury-ruined 2019-20 seasons, quality strikeout rates and plus ground-ball rates, Wood will be popular on the market. Like his teammate, DeSclafani, he’s a borderline QO candidate.

Older Veterans/Back-of-the-Rotation Options

• Brett Anderson (34): A ground-ball specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, Anderson has a 4.12 ERA and strong command over his past four seasons. He’s spent a fair bit of time on the IL, however, resulting in just 399 1/3 frames dating back to 2018.
• Tyler Anderson (32): Anderson has rebuilt his stock nicely over the past two seasons, but his rookie year 3.54 ERA back in 2016 was a long time ago. He’s generally a solid five-inning starter with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. A two-year deal isn’t out of the question based on his age and the consistency with which he’s taken the ball over the past two seasons.
• Alex Cobb (34): The 2021 version of Cobb might be the best we’ve seen since 2013-14, but injuries limited him to 93 1/3 frames. Cobb has never made 30 starts in a season, so the injury risk is palpable, but he’s coming off a solid 2021 campaign.
• J.A. Happ (39): Happ looked like a DFA candidate with the Twins but posted a 4.00 ERA in 54 innings following a trade to the Cardinals. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t really change in St. Louis, but his BABIP dropped by 60 points. Playing in front of MLB’s top defense (per DRS and OAA) certainly didn’t hurt.
• Rich Hill (42): Raise your hand if you expected 41-year-old Hill to post the second-highest innings total of his career in 2021. The lefty’s strikeout and walk rates both improved over their 2020 levels, and he posted near-identical ERAs between the Rays and Mets. He’s made clear he’s not retiring, so look for another one-year deal to slot into the middle of a rotation.
• Kwang Hyun Kim (33): He’s been mostly a five-inning starter and has been helped out immensely by a lights-out Cardinal defense (.257 BABIP, 17.2% strikeout rate), but Kim owns a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB frames. His 4.89 SIERA tells another story, but as a fifth back-of-the-rotation option or long man, teams could do much worse.
• Wade LeBlanc (37): The journeyman lefty helped keep the Cardinals afloat when their rotation need was at its most dire point (3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 innings), but an elbow injury ultimately ended his season and required surgery.
• Jon Lester (38): Lester couldn’t keep his ERA under 5.00 in Washington, but like Happ, his results improved playing in front of the St. Louis defensive juggernaut. Lester is a five-inning starter at this point and had one of the lowest K-BB% marks of any pitcher in 2021 (min. 100 IP). If he wants to keep pitching, though, someone will pencil the veteran in for some innings.
• Jordan Lyles (31): The two-year, $16MM deal he inked with Texas didn’t pan out as the Rangers hoped. This year’s 5.15 ERA was unsightly, but Lyles tied for 18th in the league with 180 innings pitched. He can eat some innings at the back of someone’s rotation in 2022.
• Wily Peralta (33): Peralta didn’t pitch in 2020 but returned to the big leagues with 93 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball for Detroit. His poor 14.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate don’t inspire a lot of confidence in his ability to repeat that feat, but he’s put himself back on the radar.
• Michael Pineda (33): Injuries hampered Pineda throughout the season and likely prevented the Twins from trading him. There’s mutual interest between he  and the Twins, so he could simply re-sign. If not, he’ll take a 3.62 ERA and a pristine walk rate (4.6%) into the free-agent market — but also a diminished heater (90.9 mph) and a career-worst strikeout rate (19.2%).
• Drew Smyly (33): Smyly got out to a rough start before rebounding with a 3.85 ERA from May 1 through season’s end. There are obvious durability concerns, and he didn’t replicate last year’s strikeout rate, but the southpaw will still garner plenty of interest.
• Michael Wacha (30): Wacha has signed a pair of one-year deals in hopes of rebuilding his stock the past two seasons, but it hasn’t exactly happened. He logged 124 2/3 frames with the Rays and posted a 5.05 ERA in 2021 and now carries a 5.11 ERA over his past three seasons. He’s young enough that there’s a tinge of upside here, but some teams probably just view him as a fifth starter at this point.

Rebound Hopefuls/Depth Options

• Chase Anderson (34): A solid rotation piece from 2014-19, Anderson has limped to an ERA just shy of 7.00 over the past two seasons.
• Chris Archer (33): Injuries have taken their toll on Archer, who had thoracic outlet surgery in 2020 and pitched just 19 1/3 innings in his 2021 return to the Rays.
• Jake Arrieta (36): Released by the Cubs late in the season, Arrieta landed with the Padres and was shelled in four starts. He’s been on the decline for several years.
• Dylan Bundy (29): The 2020 season looked like a breakout, but Bundy followed with a 6.06 ERA and struggled enough to lose his rotation spot in Anaheim. He’s shown flashes of brilliance numerous times in the past, but the former No. 2 overall prospect just continues to struggle with the long ball.
• Trevor Cahill (33): There was some bargain potential when the Bucs signed Cahill in Spring Training, but a series of calf strains held him to 37 innings with an ERA north of 6.00.
• Zach Davies (29): Davies’ big 2020 season with the Padres looks like an outlier after his strikeout and walk rates both trended strongly in the wrong direction. Davies is durable and still young, but he had the fifth-worst K-BB% of any pitcher with at least 100 innings in 2021.
• Danny Duffy (33): The longtime Royals lefty was excellent when healthy (2.51 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate), but a pair of forearm injuries limited him to just 61 innings. Duffy never pitched for the Dodgers after being acquired in late July.
• Mike Fiers (37): After pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 234 innings with the A’s from 2019-20, Fiers managed just 9 1/3 frames in 2021 due to an elbow sprain.
• Mike Foltynewicz (30): Folty regained nearly three miles per hour on his fastball in 2021, averaging 94.2 mph. The results, however, did not improve for the 2018 All-Star, who posted an ugly 5.44 ERA in 139 innings. The Rangers could’ve controlled Foltynewicz through 2022 via arbitration, but they’ve already cut him loose.
• Chi Chi Gonzalez (30): A first-round pick by Texas back in 2013, Gonzalez has spent the past three seasons with the Rockies, where he’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA and a dismal 5.7 K-BB%.
• Matt Harvey (33): Harvey posted a 3.60 ERA through his first six starts and a 4.18 ERA over his final 10 starts. The problem? He allowed 51 runs through 45 innings in the dozen starts between that pair of encouraging bookends. All told, Harvey finished with a 6.27 ERA, a subpar 16.3% strikeout rate and a strong 6.4% walk rate.
• Andrew Heaney (31): Heaney’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates are all excellent. Unfortunately, he was one of MLB’s most homer-prone arms in 2021 (2.01 HR/9). Heaney will probably get a solid one-year deal because of his age and ability to miss bats. He’ll be a popular buy-low target.
• Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen has been in line for a look in the Reds’ rotation on multiple occasions, but injuries have always intervened. That said, he’s angling for a rotation opportunity next spring and ought to get some consideration given a heater that averaged just shy of 97 (albeit in relief) and given a 3.48 ERA in 331 bullpen innings from 2016-20. Lorenzen is something of a unicorn, given that he also handles the bat well and has plus defensive tools in center field. If you’re purely rolling the dice on rotation options, they don’t come much more interesting than Lorenzen and his across-the-board skill set.
• Matt Moore (33): Moore’s return from Japan ended with a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work. He lost his rotation spot early in the year and has yet to recapture his 2011-14 pre-Tommy John form.
• James Paxton (33): Paxton, who missed most of 2020 with forearm and back injuries, pitched just one inning in his return to Seattle. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Paxton is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but he’s never made 30 starts in a season and has just 21 1/3 innings across the past two years.
• Jose Quintana (33): The veteran Quintana posted an ERA north of 8.00 as a starter but notched a 4.18 ERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 28 relief innings. He could draw interest in both roles this winter.
• Aaron Sanchez (29): A biceps injury limited Sanchez to 35 1/3 innings, during which time he walked 15 batters and plunked another four. His 90.4 mph average fastball was five miles per hour slower than it was at his peak. Sanchez had a 3.06 ERA, but the numbers beyond that weren’t pretty.
• Noah Syndergaard (30): Syndergaard hoped to be back from 2020 Tommy John surgery by June, but setbacks shelved him until late September. He pitched just two innings. Lost season notwithstanding, the Mets could make a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, who has ace-caliber stuff when healthy.
• Jose Urena (30): Non-tendered by the Marlins last winter, Urena pitched 100 2/3 innings with the Tigers but turned in a third straight season with an ERA over 5.00. A forearm strain cut his season short. He’s a minor league deal candidate this winter.
• Vince Velasquez (30): Velasquez has tantalized the Phillies with impressive raw stuff for years but never been able to harness it as a consistently successful rotation member. Velasquez throw in the mid-90s, misses bats and won’t be 30 until next June. Plenty of teams will want to take aim at trying to “fix” him.

Players with 2022 Club/Player Options

• Johnny Cueto, $22MM club option with $5MM buyout (36): Cueto looked like a fourth starter when he was healthy this year. Teams will view him as a veteran source of innings, but it’s hard to see the Giants picking up a net $17MM option.
• Merrill Kelly, $4.25MM club option with $500K buyout (32): The D-backs have an easy call here after Kelly pitched to a 4.44 ERA in 158 innings. Kelly is an affordable source of innings at the back of the rotation and would command a fair bit of trade interest if Arizona goes that route.
• Yusei Kikuchi, four-year, $66MM club option or $13MM player option (31): Kikuchi reportedly plans to exercise his $13MM player option once the Mariners decline their option to extend him at a set rate. Kikuchi was excellent for the first four months of the season or so, making the All-Star team and at one point looking like that extension option might be palatable for Seattle. He crashed hard over the final two months, however.
• Carlos Martinez, $17MM club option with $500K buyout (30): This one’s a formality for the Cardinals, who’ll decline the option after watching Martinez pitch to a 6.95 ERA in 102 1/3 innings from 2020-21.
• Wade Miley, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (35): A net $9MM decision seems like an easy call for the Reds after Miley racked up 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball. Cincinnati cut payroll last offseason, but it’d be a surprise to see them send Miley back to the market with such a reasonable 2022 option at their disposal.
• Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Richards was making good on his move to the bullpen before faceplanting in the final couple weeks of the season. With a 4.87 ERA in 136 2/3 innings, that option is likely to be bought out.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield