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The Mariners’ Future Payroll Promises

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2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Mariners:

(click to expand/view detail list)

Mariners Total Future Cash Obligation: $115.45MM

*includes Yusei Kikuchi 2022 player option

*includes buyouts of club options

Which 15 Players Should The Giants Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Giants are up next.

We’ll start by removing free agents Hunter Pence, Jeff Samardzija, Tony Watson, Drew Smyly, and Kevin Gausman.

Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford will make the protected list by virtue of their no-trade clauses.  I’ll also protect Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Logan Webb out of the gate.  So these seven players will be protected:

Buster Posey
Brandon Belt
Brandon Crawford
Mike Yastrzemski
Alex Dickerson
Mauricio Dubon
Logan Webb

That leaves eight spots for these 26 players:

Shaun Anderson
Tyler Anderson
Abiatal Avelino
Tyler Beede
Sam Coonrod
Johnny Cueto
Jaylin Davis
Steven Duggar
Wilmer Flores
Enderson Franco
Aramis Garcia
Jarlin Garcia
Trevor Gott
Jandel Gustave
Evan Longoria
Conner Menez
Reyes Moronta
Wandy Peralta
Dereck Rodriguez
Tyler Rogers
Sam Selman
Chris Shaw
Austin Slater
Donovan Solano
Andrew Suarez
Kean Wong

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly eight players you think the Giants should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Ranking The All-Time No. 1 Picks

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In case you missed it, we just recapped the careers of every No. 1 pick from the first amateur draft in 1965 through last year (1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s). So now let’s round up how those players fared or, in the cases of those who are still active, have fared since hearing their names called at the top of their respective classes. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll use fWAR as the defining stat. Granted, it’s not the end-all, be all, and it doesn’t account for the postseason, but it does give you a pretty good idea of a player’s performance. Of course, not every first selection has played in the majors. Recent choices like Mickey Moniak (2016), Royce Lewis (2017), Casey Mize (2018) and Adley Rutschman (2019) are trying to work their way up. Meanwhile, Steve Chilcott (1966), Brien Taylor (1991), Mark Appel (2013) and Brady Aiken (2014) never reached the majors.

2000-09 AL Rookies Of The Year: At Least 2 Future Hall Of Famers

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We just began a series that examines how the Rookies of the Year from each decade panned out. Naturally, after going from 2000-09 in the National League, we’ll stay in that decade and turn our attention to the AL…

2000 – Kazuhiro Sasaki, RP, Mariners:

  • Sasaki was a star in his homeland of Japan before immigrating to the majors and signing with Seattle, where he continued to keep runs off the board at an impressive rate. The right-hander put up 62 2/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with 37 saves as a rookie. While Sasaki only played through 2003, he enjoyed a nice major league career in which he posted a 3.14 ERA with 9.75 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 129 saves and two All-Star appearances over 223 1/3 frames.

2001 – Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners:

  • Back-to-back Mariners, both from Japan. Ichiro, who beat out then-Indian C.C. Sabathia for ROY honors, was among the driving forces on an incredible M’s team that won 116 regular-season games. Not only was he the top rookie in his first season, but the exhilarating Ichiro took home the MVP, won his first of two batting titles and made his first of 10 All-Star teams with a .350/.381/.457 line, 56 stolen bases and 6.0 fWAR. Ichiro didn’t spend his entire career in Seattle – he also was a Yankee and Marlin – but things came full-circle when he wrapped up his playing days as a Mariner in 2019. He should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when the time comes.

2002 – Eric Hinske, 3B, Blue Jays:

  • Hinske peaked in Year 1 with a .279/.365/.481 showing, 24 homers and 4.8 fWAR. He did play through 2013 with a few other teams, but he didn’t register especially valuable production after his first season. However, Hinske did end up as a .249/.332/.430 hitter with 137 HRs and 11.2 fWAR, so he had a better MLB career than most.

2003 – Angel Berroa, SS, Royals:

  • Hideki Matsui, Rocco Baldelli and Mark Teixeira were also among the AL’s top rookies that year, but they all lost out to Berroa. Those three ultimately had far better overall careers than Berroa, though. While Berroa was a .287/.338/.451 batter who totaled 17 HRs, 21 steals and 2.7 fWAR in his rookie season, he never came close to matching that output again. Berroa, also a Dodger, Met and Yankee through 2009, was a minus-0.1 fWAR player for the rest of his career, and he said goodbye as a .258/.303/.374/ hitter.

2004 – Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics:

  • Another sign that ROY voting isn’t an indicator of long-term success: Zack Greinke finished fourth in that year’s balloting. Crosby was productive that season and the next, during which he combined for 6.4 fWAR, but was nowhere near as valuable thereafter. He posted a combined 0.1 fWAR with the A’s, Pirates and Diamondbacks into 2010, the last season he appeared in the majors.

2005 – Huston Street, RP, Athletics:

  • The second consecutive winner for Oakland, Street beat out runner-up Robinson Cano by logging a sterling 1.72 ERA and converting 23 of 27 save opportunities. It was the beginning of a strong career for Street, who managed a 2.95 ERA with 324 saves from 2005-17 as an Athletic, Rockie, Padre and Angel. Notably, Street was part of the 2008 blockbuster that saw him, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith go to Colorado in exchange for Matt Holliday.

2006 – Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers:

  • Future Hall of Famer No. 2 on this list. The fireballing Verlander pitched to a 3.63 ERA across 186 innings in 2006, when the Tigers lost to the Cardinals in the World Series, yet his production has trended way upward since then. Now a member of the Astros, with whom he has won two pennants and a World Series, the 37-year-old is the owner of a 3.33 ERA with 9.07 K/9 and 2.57 BB/9 in 453 starts and just under 3,000 innings. Verlander’s an eight-time All-Star, someone who has pitched three no-hitters, won two AL Cy Youngs (including last season) and taken home an MVP. He’s also 27th all-time in pitcher fWAR (72.0).

2007 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox:

  • Pedroia may also have a Hall of Fame case, though injuries have ruined a tremendous career over the past few seasons and could prevent the 36-year-old from making his way back to a major league diamond. Nevertheless, Pedroia will go down as one of the most accomplished Red Sox players ever. It all began in Year 1 with a .317/.380/.442 line and 3.7 fWAR. Pedroia was on his first of three World Series-winnings teams then. He’s also now a four-time All-Star, a four-time Gold Glover and a one-time MVP who has slashed .299/.365./439 with 140 homers, 138 steals and 46.6 fWAR in the bigs.

2008 – Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays:

  • We’re on a good run now. Longoria batted .272/.343/.531 with 27 homers and 5.6 fWAR as a rookie to help the Rays to their only AL pennant. He’s now a franchise icon who largely thrived in Tampa Bay through 2017, though the team traded him to San Francisco after that. Longoria’s production has dropped off lately, but there’s no denying he has had a wonderful career. The 34-year-old is a three-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove winner who has batted .267/.335/.474 with 297 HRs and 51.1 fWAR.

2009 – Andrew Bailey, RP, Athletics:

  • The decade concluded with three A’s winning this award. Bailey earned it with 83 1/3 innings of 1.84 ERA ball and 26 saves, and he continued to hold his own over the next couple years. However, injuries took their toll after that, and Oakland traded Bailey to Boston in 2011 in a deal that delivered Josh Reddick to the A’s. That worked out for the A’s, but Bailey wasn’t often healthy or effective as part of the Red Sox from 2012-13. He went on to pitch for Yankees, Angels and Phillies from 2015-17, though he also couldn’t revisit his A’s form with any of those teams. That said, Bailey had a more-than-respectable career, in which he logged a 3.12 ERA with 9.05, 2.99 BB/9 and 95 saves, and earned two All-Star nods.

MLB’s 5 Most-Traded Players

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Trades are the life blood of this website. This is the longest we’ve ever gone without one! We’re all pining for the good old days … which got me thinking about the players who have been constant fodder for MLBTR posts.

Plenty of other names have appeared on the site more often in rumors. And there are lots of players who’ve ended up moving around more often by other mechanisms. (See, e.g., Oliver Drake, the reigning king of the waiver claim.) But among those players that appeared in the majors in 2019, no man (so far as my research revealed) has matched or exceeded these five-time-traded players when it comes to being dealt …

5 (tie). Mark Melancon (5)

5 (tie). Drew Butera (5)

5 (tie). J.A. Happ (5)

4. Tyler Clippard (6)

2 (tie). Cameron Maybin (7)

2 (tie). Edwin Jackson (7)

1. Jesse Chavez (8)

12 Years Later, This Trade’s Still Paying Off For Yankees

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It has been a dozen years since the Yankees swung a trade for outfielder Nick Swisher, who paid immediate dividends as part of the franchise and whose acquisition continues to benefit the organization to this day. On Nov. 13, 2008, the Yankees sent two minor league pitchers – Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez – as well as veteran infielder Wilson Betemit to the White Sox for Swisher and young hurler Kanekoa Texeira. Most of the pieces in the swap – Marquez, Nunez and Texeira – failed to pan out in the majors, but the move revived the switch-hitting Swisher’s career and helped him land a sizable payday in free agency down the road.

If we go back to the start, Swisher opened his career as a rather effective member of the Athletics, who chose him 16th overall in the 2002 draft. As a member of the big club from 2004-07, Swisher batted .251/.361/.464 (118 wRC+) with 80 home runs and 10.0 fWAR over 1,924 plate appearances, aiding Oakland in three plus-.500 seasons and a playoff berth. However, almost six years after spending a high pick on him, the A’s sold the affable Swisher, dealing him to the White Sox in January 2008 for a package led by left-hander Gio Gonzalez. That worked out fine for Oakland, which received a couple terrific years from Gonzalez before trading him to the Nationals in December 2011 in yet another notable transaction.

While the A’s profited from Gonzalez’s presence, his career took a bad turn in his first year out of Oakland. The 2008 campaign was one of the worst of Swisher’s time in the game, and he was unable to win the favor of then-White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen as a result. While Swisher was seemingly a solid clubhouse presence in the majors, Guillen thought the opposite. He said in November 2008, a little while after the White Sox parted with Swisher: “To be honest with you, I was not happy with the way he was reacting at the end of the season. He wasn’t helping me either.”  Maybe the relationship would have been better had Swisher produced, though he instead struggled to a .219/.332/.410 line (93 wRC+) in 588 PA. But Swisher did pop 24 home runs, his third of nine straight seasons with 20-plus, and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman decided to buy low on him.

To this day, the Swisher pickup looks like one of the most brilliant decisions of Cashman’s lengthy tenure atop New York’s front office. Swisher was a quality contributor throughout his time as a Yankee, including in a 2009 campaign that saw the team win its most recent World Series championship. From that season through 2012, Swisher’s last as a Yankee, he hit .268/.367/.483 (128 wRC+) with 105 HRs and 14.4 fWAR across 2,501 PA, also earning his lone All-Star berth in the process. But the Yankees were not willing to commit to Swisher once he became a free agent before 2013, which, for multiple reasons, was a wise call in hindsight.

In January 2013, the Ohio-born Swisher returned to his native state on a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians. Unfortunately for Cleveland, it didn’t get anything close to the Yankees’ version of Swisher. Owing in part to knee problems, Swisher slashed a below-average .228/.311/.377 (92 wRC+) with 32 homers and minus-0.5 fWAR in 1,146 PA in an Indians uniform. They dealt Swisher and fellow outfielder Michael Bourn to the Braves for infielder Chris Johnson in August 2015. That proved to be Swisher’s final season in MLB, though he did return to the Yankees on a minor league contract in 2016 before his career came to an end later that year.

The season after Swisher said goodbye to pro baseball, another star was born in New York. Towering right fielder Aaron Judge, a top 100 prospect in his younger days, exploded on the scene in 2017, batting .284/.422/.627 (174 wRC+), smacking 52 homers and racking up 8.3 fWAR. Judge fell short of AL MVP honors then, but he won Rookie of the Year in his league and was part of a club that took the eventual title-winning Astros to a seven-game LCS.

While injuries have somewhat limited Judge’s availability since his initial season, you can’t argue with the production he has managed when he has been able to take the field. Since his second year, Judge has recorded a line of .278/.392/.528 (good for a 146 wRC+) and amassed 54 dingers with 9.7 fWAR.

Judge is now 28 years old, a two-time All-Star and perhaps the face of the Bronx-based franchise, but he may have never gotten there if not for Swisher. Allowing Swisher to depart in free agency entitled the Yankees to a compensatory selection in the ensuing draft. They used that pick, No. 32 in 2013, on Judge – a former Fresno State Bulldog. So, not only did the Yankees benefit from Swisher’s best seasons as a pro, but stealing him from the White Sox 12 years ago is still paying off for them in a big way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Andrus & Odor Occupy Top Spots On Rangers’ Future Payroll

By | at

2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Rangers:

(click to expand/view detail list)

Rangers Total Future Cash Obligation: $101.5MM

*includes buyouts on club options

*2023 club option ($15MM) over Elvis Andrus vests with 550 plate appearances in 2022 and/or 1,110 plate appearances in 2021-22

Which 15 Players Should The Rangers Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Rangers are up next.

We’ll start by removing free agents Jeff Mathis, Shin-Soo Choo, Jesse Chavez, and Mike Minor from consideration.  We’ll also remove Todd Frazier and Robinson Chirinos, who have club options for 2021 but probably aren’t worth protected spots.

Corey Kluber has an $18MM club option for 2021, and the Rangers’ decision on that will be dependent on how he performs in a possible 2020 season.  I’ve decided to make the guess that the Rangers would use a protected spot on Kluber.  We’ll also lock down Elvis Andrus due to his no-trade protection.  I’ve decided to lock down starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles as well, who signed with the Rangers as free agents last December.  That’s debatable, but some judgment calls are made in this process.  Here’s the entire initial protected group of nine players:

Corey Kluber
Elvis Andrus
Lance Lynn
Danny Santana
Joey Gallo
Willie Calhoun
Nick Solak
Kyle Gibson
Jordan Lyles

That leaves six spots for the following 18 players:

Kolby Allard
Brock Burke
Luke Farrell
Nick Goody
Ronald Guzman
Taylor Hearn
Scott Heineman
Jonathan Hernandez
Ariel Jurado
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Jose Leclerc
Brett Martin
Yohander Mendez
Rafael Montero
Joely Rodriguez
Rougned Odor
Joe Palumbo
Jose Trevino

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly six players you think the Rangers should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Former No. 3 Pick’s Path To MLB Would Be Accelerated With Universal DH

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We’ve already sorted through the rest of the NL East (Braves, Nationals, Mets, Marlins) when looking at how the likely addition of a universal DH might impact the teams within. How might the Phillies react to the change? The Phils have a reasonably experienced lineup, with only presumptive center fielder Adam Haseley checking in at under a year of big league service time. The group was a middle-of-the-pack unit in the NL last year, ranking eighth in runs scored (774), tenth in wRC+ (91) and 11th in home runs (215).

Among in-house veterans, Jay Bruce leads the pack of DH candidates. Acquired last year shortly before Andrew McCutchen tore his ACL, Bruce continued to show off huge power but posted bottom-of-the-barrel OBP numbers: a .261 OBP and a career-low 5.7 percent walk rate. If his days an even passable OBP threat are behind him, perhaps he’s no longer suited for this role, but he’ll probably get some opportunities to bounce back. He’ll likely need a right-handed platoon partner. The Phils have no shortage of non-roster veterans who could factor into the mix, including Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Neil Walker (although Walker is a much better left-handed hitter than he is right-handed).

The bigger question in Philly, though, is whether the advent of the NL DH and the likely expansion of rosters will push top prospect Alec Bohm to the big league level. Bohm hasn’t appeared above Double-A yet, but the former No. 3 overall draft pick clobbered High-A and Double-A pitching last year, hitting at a combined .305/.378/.518 clip in 540 plate appearances. Bohm walked in 10.6 percent of his plate appearances against a mere 13.5 percent strikeout rate. There’s no guarantee that any minor league games will be played in 2020, and he was widely expected to debut at some point in 2020 anyhow. Given Bohm’s status as a consensus top 60 prospect, the Phillies can’t be keen on him missing a year’s worth of games.

If Bohm holds his own in the Majors, the benefits to the Phillies are substantial. Jean Segura could move from third base to second base, freeing Scott Kingery up to embrace a super-utility role or simply allowing him to supplant Haseley as the everyday center fielder. Kingery rated well at virtually every position he played in 2019, and his bat is an upgrade over that of Haseley. With a DH spot added, there’s room for each of Bohm, Segura and Kingery to regularly factor into the lineup.

It’s true that Haseley’s glove graded out excellently last year, so perhaps the Phils would prefer to keep him in there as often as possible — particularly against righties. In that case, both Haseley and Kingery could log outfield reps on days when McCutchen is the DH, allowing his surgically repaired knee the occasional rest. Bohm could play third base on those days with Segura at second. At the very least, a productive debut from Bohm would give incoming skipper Joe Girardi the “good” types of problems/questions that every manager hopes to have.

There could be other options in the organization. Expanded rosters surely give Nick Williams a greater chance of making the club, though he’s rather buried on the outfield depth chart. The right-handed-hitting Kyle Garlick could see some increased opportunities, and while Nick Martini isn’t on the 40-man roster at present, he’s an OBP machine who would make for a nice bench bat or occasional DH versus righties. With Matt Szczur, Ronald Torreyes, Phil Gosselin, Mikie Mahtook and T.J. Rivera all in camp on minor league deals as well, the Phillies aren’t short on recognizable names. It’s doubtful any of that bunch would factor prominently into DH duties, but they give the Phillies plenty of options for a deepened bench.

Which 15 Players Should The Mariners Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve done the Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles.  The Mariners are next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Dee Gordon, Taijuan Walker, and Yoshihisa Hirano from consideration.  I’ve decided to lock down these 11 players out of the gate:

Mitch Haniger
Marco Gonzales
Evan White
Logan Gilbert
Justus Sheffield
Justin Dunn
Kyle Lewis
J.P. Crawford
Shed Long
Jake Fraley
Tom Murphy

That leaves four spots for the following 25 players:

Austin Adams
Dan Altavilla
Gerson Bautista
Braden Bishop
Brandon Brennan
Nestor Cortes
Carl Edwards Jr.
Kendall Graveman
Zac Grotz
Taylor Guilbeau
Sam Haggerty
Yusei Kikuchi
Tim Lopes
Matt Magill
Nick Margevicius
Dylan Moore
Austin Nola
Kyle Seager
Mallex Smith
Erik Swanson
Daniel Vogelbach
Donovan Walton
Art Warren
Taylor Williams
Patrick Wisdom

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Mariners should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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