6 Extended Players Who Have Improved In 2019
There was a well-documented run on contract extensions prior to this season, which bled into the current campaign in multiple instances. All told, 30 players inked multiyear pacts with their clubs between January and April. We highlighted five last week who’ve disappointed this year since landing their new deals. Now, here are six who have actually improved in 2019, thereby making their teams look that much better for locking them up…
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (six years, $120MM):
- There were many who believed Bogaerts left a good amount of money on the table last spring when he inked a long-term deal with the Red Sox a year before a potential trip to free agency. It was debatable then whether that was truly the case, but not anymore. The consistently terrific Bogaerts is now enjoying a career year at the age of 26. Bogaerts has totaled 5.5 fWAR on the strength of a .308/.384/.563 line (good for a 142 wRC+) through 539 plate appearances. With a personal-best 27 home runs, he’s a shoo-in for his first 30-HR campaign. It helps that Bogaerts has swung at fewer out-of-zone pitches than ever and walked at a career-best rate.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (eight years, $100MM):
- Thanks in part to what’s somehow a team-friendly nine-figure contract, the FanGraphs crew recently ranked Acuna as the player with the most trade value in baseball. Anyone care to argue? The 21-year-old may become the game’s latest 40/40 player this season, having amassed 34 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 562 trips to the plate. He has also slashed .298/.377/.539 (134 wRC+), posted nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating among all three outfield positions, and racked up 4.8 fWAR.
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (seven years, $35MM):
- The majority of observers regarded the Albies deal as an absolute steal for the Braves when he signed it. The 22-year-old hasn’t done anything to change minds since then, having batted .298/.353/.502 (117 wRC+) with 18 homers and 11 steals across 530 PA. Albies has added three DRS and a 1.3 UZR in the field, helping lead to a 3.4 fWAR a year after he logged 3.8. The switch-hitting Albies was clearly among the game’s best second basemen before landing his extension, and the contract has only made him more valuable from Atlanta’s perspective.
Max Kepler, OF, Twins (five years, $35MM):
- Back in May, the Kepler extension was one of two MLBTR’s Jeff Todd highlighted as a gem for the club. The 26-year-old Kepler was off to an impressive start to the season at that point, and he hasn’t let up. Kepler’s already up to 32 homers, 12 more than his previous high-water mark, in 501 PA. Overall, he has batted .258/.337/.536 (124 wRC+) with 3.7 fWAR. Unlike many hitters who’ve increased their power, Kepler’s excellence hasn’t come with more strikeouts. He has fanned in a meager 16 percent of plate appearances and drawn walks at an above-average 10.2 percent clip.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds (three years, $30.5MM):
- The Reds extended Gray immediately after acquiring the 29-year-old from the Yankees, with whom he struggled. Wise choice. Gray was mostly successful with the Yankees before an adverse year and a half in New York, and he has returned to his top form as a member of the Reds. He owns a stellar 2.98 ERA/3.40 FIP with 10.45 K/9 (easily a career-high amount), 3.39 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent groundball rate over 132 2/3 innings. The fact that Gray has reverted to being a front-of-the-rotation arm is a key reason why the Reds’ starting staff has taken massive steps forward this season.
Jorge Polanco, SS, Twins (five years, $25.75MM):
- Polanco’s extension was another brilliant preseason decision by the Twins, who’ve seen the 26-year-old hit .294/.357/.487 (118 wRC+) with 17 long balls and 3.3 fWAR since signing it. Polanco, like Kepler, has been rather difficult to strike out, having gone down in that manner in a mere 15.8 percent of PA.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Wade Miley
Left-hander Wade Miley was one of the most cost-efficient free-agent signings in each of the previous two offseasons. He was highly successful as a Brewer in 2018 after settling for a minor league contract, and has continued to thrive this year as an Astro on the heels of taking a major league pact worth $4.5MM. Over the past season and a half, Miley ranks 14th among qualified starters in ERA (3.11).
Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).
Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.
As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.
The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.
Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Kelvin Herrera Signing Hasn’t Gone The White Sox’s Way
At times since he debuted in the majors in 2011, right-hander Kelvin Herrera has been one of the majors’ most dominant relievers. Between 2012 and ’16, for instance, Herrera pitched to a sterling 2.57 ERA/2.96 FIP with 9.14 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 48.7 percent groundball rate over 354 1/3 innings. He averaged a whopping 98.0 mph on his four-seam fastball along the way, and was a key reason why the Royals took home a World Series championship in 2015. That fall, Herrera turned in 13 2/3 innings of two-run ball (one earned) and totaled 22 strikeouts against three walks. Herrera hasn’t been the same caliber of pitcher over the past couple years, however, and is now struggling through the worst season of his career.
Things began going downhill for Herrera in 2017, his last full season as a Royal, and continued to spiral last year in a campaign divided between Kansas City and Washington. Herrera still notched an outstanding 2.44 ERA and barely walked more than two batters per nine over 44 1/3 innings, but his 7.71 K/9, 35.6 percent groundball rate, 3.95 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA ranked among the least impressive figures during his time in the pros. Making matters worse, Herrera suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his left foot in late August.
Although 2018 concluded in unfavorable fashion for Herrera, that didn’t stop the 29-year-old from landing a solid payday in free agency last winter. The rebuilding White Sox, familiar with the hurler from his run with the division-rival Royals, committed two years and $18MM to Herrera.
Unfortunately for Chicago, the Herrera contract has looked like a mistake to this point. Through 34 1/3 innings with the ChiSox, Herrera has limped to a 7.08 ERA. Only two relievers who have accrued 30-plus innings (David Hernandez, whom the Reds just released, and the Orioles’ Branden Kline) have had more trouble preventing runs than Herrera, whose average fastball velocity (95.8 mph) sits as the least imposing of his career. Unsurprisingly, a drop in swinging-strike rate – 10.8 percent, the worst of Herrera’s majors tenure – has accompanied his dip in velocity. At the same time, with 4.19 walks per nine, Herrera has issued more free passes than ever.
Herrera’s new status as one of the game’s least effective relievers has come with a change in repertoire. According to Statcast, after throwing his four-seamer anywhere from 40 to 60 percent in previous seasons, he’s down to 32.8 percent this year. Hitters have tattooed the pitch, though, with a .483 weighted on-base average/.421 xwOBA. They’ve also had plenty of success against his sinker (21.9 percent; .432 wOBA/.364 xwOBA) and cutter (10.3 percent; .375/.391). Conversely, Herrera’s non-fastballs – his changeup (21.5 percent; .218/.225) and slider (13.6 percent; .202/.220) – have stymied the opposition. Perhaps he’d be well-served to rely more on those offerings.
Regardless of pitch choice, it does seem Herrera has encountered a bit of bad luck this season. His fielding-independent pitching marks, including a 4.73 FIP, are all much more respectable than his ERA (although hardly great). Hitters have also victimized Herrera for an unsustainable .378 batting average on balls in play, which sits well above his career .292 mark and has come in spite of a low average exit velocity. Herrera’s mean exit velo against (85.8 mph) ranks as his best in the Statcast era and falls in the top 7 percent of the league. The .339 xwOBA Herrera has yielded is still unimpressive, but it looks far better than the .370 real wOBA hitters have mustered off him. Meanwhile, Herrera has only stranded 63.2 percent of runners – down from a lifetime mark of 77.7.
Herrera and the White Sox will, of course, hope fortune starts going in his favor over the next year-plus. As of now, though, this doesn’t have the makings of a successful signing for the club, which committed much more money to Herrera than any other free agent last offseason. If Herrera does bounce back in 2020, though, it could go a long way toward helping the White Sox snap a painfully long playoff drought that’s sure to hit 11 seasons this year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello
Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.
Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.
The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.
This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.
Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).
It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Who Else Could Hit Outright Waivers In August?
The Reds have made a pair of claims already, nabbing Kevin Gausman from the Braves and Freddy Galvis from the Blue Jays. While the Cincinnati organization still hasn’t manage to make a run into clear postseason contention, it’s in shouting distance and obviously wants to send a message to its fanbase. With a marginal place in the standings, the Reds also have waiver priority over all other contenders. (Current rules do not distinguish between league status, except in cases where two teams with the same record each put in a claim.) The claims are relatively low-cost since there’s not much time left in the regular season (around $4MM in total) and both players can be controlled for 2020 (Gausman via arbitration, Galvis via club option). It’s also possible the Reds could pass along the contracts via the waiver wire later this month.
[RELATED: So, What Can Teams Do In August?]
It stands to reason that players in similar positions will be exposed to waivers as well. Those likeliest to hit the wire — beyond younger, fringe 40-man members — are arbitration-eligible players who are obvious non-tender candidates and impending free agents who no longer fit onto their current club. Gausman and Kyle Barraclough, whom the Giants recently claimed from the Nationals, represent recent examples of the first group. In such cases, teams stand to save a nice chunk of money if another team places a claim; if not, they only lose a player whose days in the organization were clearly numbered. Certain veterans on expiring contracts may also be allowed to leave, even if their non-contending current team would happily pay their salary down the stretch, in order to generate goodwill in pursuing future free agents. (That possibility explains why we’ve listed, say, Hunter Pence as a conceivable waiver candidate.)
It should be noted that players with guaranteed salaries beyond the 2019 season aren’t as likely to be waived in this manner. There’s little incentive for the Mariners to waive Dee Gordon, for instance. He’s owed more than $16MM and would surely go unclaimed as a result. At that point, he’d reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, leaving the Mariners on the hook for the entirety of his contract. At best, Seattle would save the prorated league minimum if Gordon signed with another team. It makes more sense to hold him and try to move him in the offseason or even next year.
There ought to be demand on the claiming side. Plenty of needs remain unmet even on competitive rosters. It’s notable that the Nats and Braves saved money with their above-cited waiver placements; that could leave some addition free cash to utilize in adding other players. Some clear non-contenders will even work the wire, as the Blue Jays did with Zack Godley. It would seem there’s nothing to stop teams from discussing their intentions in advance — “hey, we’d claim him if you cut him loose” — to assuage any concerns about a player going unclaimed, which could perhaps even open the door to a surprising late-month claim or two.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look around the league to see which other players could land on waivers, focusing on contract status and other factors. Rebuilding and/or clearly non-contending clubs will obviously be contemplating ways to save some cash with moves of this nature. Some players on contending teams may be candidates to be cut loose regardless of their organization’s place in the standings — hence, the prior moves on Gausman and Barraclough — but we’ll focus here on organizations with sub-.500 records.
Just because a player lands on the list doesn’t mean we think it’s especially likely he’ll move by way of waivers; it just indicates we can see a path to such an outcome. Without further ado (teams listed by inverse order of record):
Tigers: Jordy Mercer, Gordon Beckham, Edwin Jackson
Orioles: Jace Peterson, Jonathan Villar
Royals: Billy Hamilton, Mike Montgomery
Marlins: Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Martin Prado, Adam Conley
Mariners: Cory Gearrin, Anthony Bass
Blue Jays: Zack Godley, Neil Ramirez, Justin Smoak
Pirates: Francisco Liriano, Melky Cabrera
Rockies: Chris Iannetta (DFA limbo), Chad Bettis
White Sox: Ivan Nova, Welington Castillo, Jon Jay, Yolmer Sanchez
Padres: Craig Stammen, Ian Kinsler
Reds: Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Jared Hughes
Angels: Justin Bour, Trevor Cahill
Rangers: Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Delino DeShields, Shawn Kelley, David Carpenter
Additional Possibilities: Adeiny Hechavarria (Mets; DFA limbo), Addison Russell (Cubs), Travis Shaw (Brewers), Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Wacha (Cardinals)
(It’s possible that the win/loss outcomes over the next two weeks will push some other organizations to consider dropping short-term veterans, but we won’t guess here as to how that’ll shake out. The players on contending teams just listed could be pushed out due to performance/roster considerations, regardless of their teams’ place in the standings.)
Checking In On Last Winter’s 8 Biggest Free Agent Pitcher Contracts
Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.
We’ll check in on the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. We’ve already gone through the five position players. Now, here are the eight pitchers who inked such deals:
Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals (6 years, $140MM): Corbin has been just about everything the Nats hoped he’d be, turning in 141 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 10.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 along with a 46.0% groundball rate. The numbers aren’t quite as exceptional as they were last year, but it’s promising to see that he has mostly maintained his breakout (and has even nudged his velocity back a bit toward his career average). It still feels like a pretty heavy price, but … let’s just say the D.C. org is probably pleased it made this investment rather than topping the Phillies to bring back Bryce.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox (4 years, $67.5MM): Yeah, I know he’s pitching as a reliever for the moment. But that’s not what he was signed for. And it doesn’t even capture the full scope of the problems. Eovaldi came back to the Boston bullpen from a long elbow-related absence. He’s pumping heat, as usual, but the results have been ugly all year long. Eovaldi does carry a 14:2 K/BB ratio in 7 2/3 innings as a reliever, but he has also been tagged for a .591 batting average in balls in play and seven earned runs in that capacity. Overall, his swinging-strike rate has dropped back to 8.8% after popping up to 10.7% last year. There’s still time for the 29-year-old to figure things out, but his performance thus far has left his 2018 uptick looking like an outlier.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Mariners (4 years, $56MM): MLBTR’s Connor Byrne took a closer look at Kikuchi just the other day, so I’ll point you to that rather than re-listing the core facts here. The key fact for the Seattle organization is that Kikuchi was always a long-term play rather than a win-now gambit, so there’s still hope they can help him learn and adjust. But the initial showing doesn’t admit of much promise.
Zack Britton, RP, Yankees (3 years, $39MM): The groundball artist formerly known as “Zach” doesn’t get swings and misses like he did in his prime, but he’s still excelling with a 2.30 ERA in 47 frames. Opposing hitters still haven’t figured out the power sinker. They’re putting the ball on the ground at a 78.7% clip and failing (particularly given this offensive environment) to put the ball over the fence (0.57 HR/9). Britton is again giving out more free passes than one might prefer, but he’s better equipped to erase them with double plays than any reliever in the history of baseball.
J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees (2 years, $34MM): The Yanks’ other significant pitching investment hasn’t worked out as well. Happ is through 115 innings of 5.24 ERA ball, with 7.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 and a hefty 26 home runs allowed. The velo is fine. The swings and misses are at the same level as his successful 2018. But Happ just hasn’t been able to tamp down the hard contact and has been far too prone to the long ball. The positive is that the veteran southpaw is healthy and still seems to be exhibiting the same arsenal and general skillset that has worked for him in recent seasons.
Charlie Morton, SP, Rays (2 years, $30MM): And you thought Happ had a late-career renaissance. It’s still unclear why the Astros didn’t issue Morton a qualifying offer after his strong two-year run with the team. He has been even better in Tampa Bay, spinning 143 frames of 2.77 ERA pitching with 11.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 49.1% groundball rate. Morton has allowed only eleven long balls, a markedly low figure for a starter in this offensive context. He’s a fantastic buy on this deal.
Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets (3 years, $30MM): I won’t lie. This struck me as a nice move for the Mets at the time it was made. Familia still hasn’t reached thirty years of age and was a solid late-inning asset in 2018. Unfortunately, he has fallen apart in his return to New York. Through 37 2/3 innings, he’s sporting an awful 6.69 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 7.4 BB/9. Familia is having trouble getting opposing hitters to chase out of the zone, which is leading to the walks and explains the reduction in his swinging-strike rate (from 14.1% last year to 10.2%). He’s not throwing his four-seamer as hard as usual, but his heavily utilized sinker is still sitting in its typical 96+ mph range. While there’s still hope of a turnaround, it’s safe to say that rival clubs wouldn’t be anxious to take on the remainder of this deal.
Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers (3 years, $30MM): The most surprising $30MM+ contract is also arguably the best value of them all. The 32-year-old Lynn has had plenty of effective seasons in the majors, but he has by some measures never been better than in 2019. He’s throwing harder than ever and carrying a career-best 21.8% K%-BB% on a personal-high 12.3% swinging-strike rate. Statcast is impressed, crediting Lynn with a .279 xwOBA-against that’s even better than the .294 wOBA actually produced by opposing batters. It’s fair to wonder whether Lynn can keep up quite this level of work for the final two years of the deal, but the pact has obviously turned into quite the asset for the Texas organization.
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I suppose we could’ve looked fully at Craig Kimbrel, who signed with the Cubs in mid-season after shedding draft compensation, but it seems premature to attempt an assessment just 14 appearances into his $43MM contract.
MLBTR Poll: J.D. Martinez’s Opt-Out Clause
The offseason could come sooner than expected for the reigning World Series champion Red Sox, whose playoff chances have dwindled in the year’s second half. Losers of nine of their past 11, the Red Sox sit a stunning 16 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and 5 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. The club has already lost more games in 2019 (56) than it did last regular season (54), and it still has 45 games to go.
Boston’s fall certainly hasn’t been the fault of designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has been on another of his signature offensive rampages of late. After four straight multi-hit games, his line has climbed to .304/.379/.547 – one of its highest points of the season. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, these may be the final weeks with the club for Martinez. He’ll dive back into free agency if he opts out of his contract after the season, though he’s far from a lock to abandon his deal.
Returning to the open market – where the former Astro, Tiger and Diamondback joined the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM contract back in February 2018 – would mean leaving a substantial amount of money on the table. However, while Martinez will still have another three years and $62.5MM left when this season concludes, he’s not ruling out another stab at free agency. Martinez said last month he plans to leave his future in the hands of famed agent Scott Boras.
Based on his production, Martinez has a case for more money than he stands to earn on his current deal. Martinez was one of the game’s greatest hitters in the handful of years preceding his Boston deal, and that hasn’t changed. Although Martinez’s numbers have markedly fallen off compared to where they were from 2017-18, that’s more a compliment to his output then than an indictment on what he has done this year. With 25 home runs in 479 plate appearances, Martinez is on pace for his third straight year with at least 30 HRs. His wRC+ (136) is tied with Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell for 19th among qualified hitters, and his .408 expected weighted on-base average ranks quite a bit higher. Only fellow offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge rank above Martinez in that department.
It’s fair to say Martinez remains an absolute force at the plate, then, and it would surely help his cause that he’d be a big fish in a fairly small free-agent pond. Aside from Rendon, a fellow Boras client and the lone pending free-agent position player who looks like a shoo-in for a $100MM-plus contract, Martinez would be the second-most appealing hitter available. Still, the soon-to-be 32-year-old and Boras might be leery of taking advantage of his opt-out. Free agency has been tough on even highly decorated 30-somethings in recent years, especially those who come with qualifying offers attached (just ask Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).
Martinez didn’t receive a QO in his previous trip to free agency because it came after a midseason trade, but the Red Sox would no doubt saddle him with one during the upcoming winter. Plus, although he remains among the majors’ most formidable hitters, that’s essentially where all of Martinez’s on-field value comes from. Formerly a regular in the outfield, he’s easily on pace for his second straight season of fewer than 500 innings in the grass. That doesn’t mean Martinez’s offense won’t continue to make him immensely valuable going forward – former Red Sox DH David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cruz are two examples of offense-only players who’ve been tremendous even in the twilight of their careers. The lack of a real position still won’t do Martinez’s market any favors, though, especially considering there aren’t any near-term plans for the National League to implement the DH.
There’s no easy answer here for the Martinez-Boras tandem, who can either choose the bird-in-hand route or take a gamble on his bat leading him to even more cash than he’s due on his present pact. Without question, it’ll be one of the most interesting early offseason situations to watch. As of now, how do you expect it to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you expect J.D. Martinez to do after the season?
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Keep his current deal 57% (4,166)
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Opt out 43% (3,148)
Total votes: 7,314
Checking In On Last Winter’s 5 Biggest Free Agent Hitter Contracts
Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.
We’ll take a look in at the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. Here are the five position players who inked such deals:
Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies (13 years, $330MM): Harper has turned his back on those ugly defensive metrics from a year ago. So, that’s nice. Much less encouraging: Harper is back-sliding in plate discipline (26.3% K rate vs. 15.6% BB rate) and power (.215 ISO). He’s swinging and missing more than ever (14.7%). Notably, his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone has stayed below 80% in each of the past two seasons, a rather notable downturn given that he had previously registered in the mid-eighties. Statcast hints at some poor fortune (.355 wOBA vs. .374 xwOBA), and we might reasonably anticipate some movement back towards Harper’s career mean, but the overall results haven’t been terribly promising for a player who is owed a lot of money over an exceptionally lengthy period of time.
Manny Machado, 3B, Padres (10 years, $300MM): Like Harper, Machado owns a good but hardly overwhelming 117 wRC+. The Friars third bagger just hasn’t stung the ball quite as often as he did in the two prior seasons. And his strikeout rate sits at a career-high 20.2%. While Machado could end up setting a career high-water mark in long balls with 26 already in the bag (his prior his is 37), he hasn’t been quite as good at the plate as one might have hoped in year one of a decade-long commitment.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers (4 years, $55MM): Another round of elbow issues has limited Pollock and he’s carrying a league-average .257/.319/.444 batting line. That’s not great at first glance, but the situation is more promising when you look more closely. The elbow surgery he underwent may finally have put an end to his long-running series of issues in that joint. And he has raked since returning from the injured list. It’d be foolish to say that this contract is working out perfectly, but it’s far too soon to label it a bust.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies (3 years, $50MM): This one was off to such a promising start. Cutch was walking like a maniac while delivering solid pop to open the season, but went down with a devastating knee injury in his 59th game of action. He’ll have plenty of time to get ready for 2020, but the Phillies lost a big chunk of the anticipated early production from the signing and will have to wait to see whether the ACL repair will cost the venerable veteran some of his athleticism.
Michael Brantley, OF, Astros (2 years, $32MM): The last position player on this list has outperformed all the others. Brantley is maintaining his typically exceptional contact rates while hitting for more power than ever before (.192 ISO, 16 home runs in 467 plate appearances). He’s also receiving strong marks for his glovework. This deal is working out swimmingly for the ‘Stros.
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We ought to give an honorable mention to the players who signed big one-year deals when they could have topped $30MM in a multi-year scenario. Josh Donaldson ($23MM) and Yasmani Grandal ($18.25MM) have each been excellent. (Ditto Nelson Cruz, though the long-in-the-tooth DH’s $14.3MM single-season salary suggests he didn’t quite have that level of earning power.)
6 Non-Tendered Players Who Could Be Re-Tendered This Fall
MLBTR is the hottest spot on the internet for all your arbitration needs! I know, I know … bold marketing statement. But it’s true. We take the arb process seriously in these parts, from essential arbitration projections to detailed breakdowns to in-time coverage of the market as it unfolds. (Wondering about those projections? No doubt we’ll be aiming again for an early-October release.)
We also understand that the arb process is a bit of a wonky niche in the baseball transactional world. Even big hearing victories like these barely register on the news wire. But they are still quite important. And many smaller decisions are as well. If you’re the type who appreciates this sort of thing … well, that’s why you’re here.
Anyway, that’s all a bit of background to help explain why I thought it’d be worthwhile to follow up on a few notable players who were non-tendered (or designated just before the tender deadline) by their teams last fall. I even invented a new term, “re-tendered,” to encapsulate players who go from being non-tendered one year to offered arbitration again with another team. (Exciting times, I know.) This doesn’t work for non-tendered players who have already exhausted their arb eligibility (hence, no Avisail Garcia). We also won’t list players who are not yet arb-eligible but were non-tendered last fall (it’s possible for pre-arb players, too; Adrian Sampson is a possible example).
Tim Beckham would’ve been a prime candidate but for his recent PED suspension. Here are six remaining re-tender candidates:
Derek Dietrich, INF, Reds: Okay, he wasn’t technically non-tendered. But Dietrich was designated by the Marlins just before the non-tender deadline, so he’s in. Dietrich ended up on a minors deal in Cincinnati that pays $2MM in the bigs. He has repaid that handsomely, with 273 plate appearances of .207/.349/.514 hitting. While he hasn’t maintained an early storm of productivity, Dietrich remains a plausible tender candidate for 2020.
James McCann, C, White Sox: Another player who has faded after a blistering start, McCann still seems an easy tender choice for the White Sox. That’s a bummer for the division-rival Tigers, who finally decided to cut him loose. McCann owns a .282/.338/.458 batting line with a dozen long balls in 335 plate appearances.
Matt Shoemaker, SP, Blue Jays: He is nearing his 33rd birthday and has been hurt an awful lot — including an ACL tear that cost him the bulk of the present campaign. But Shoemaker has talent, as evidenced by the 1.57 ERA he posted in five starts before shredding his knee. He signed with the pitching-needy Jays for $3.5MM over the winter after the Angels non-tendered him. Perhaps the Toronto organization will double down, bettering that a lengthy respite for Shoemaker’s right arm will help him finally bounce back in full in 2020.
Hunter Strickland, RP, Nationals: Another player who was DFA’ed just before the arb decision point, the former Giants late-inning man signed in Seattle for $1.3MM and ended up in D.C. on deadline day. Strickland hasn’t actually thrown many innings this season due to injury, but a solid showing down the stretch could make him a keeper for a Nats club that will be looking to fill multiple bullpen vacancies over the offseason to come.
Blake Parker, RP, Phillies: Non-tendered by the Angels and inked for $1.8MM by the Twins, Parker sacrificed the remainder of his guaranteed salary when he elected free agency after he was cut loose by the Minnesota org earlier this season. He has already coughed up four earned runs on two long balls in five innings in Philly. The thing is, the Philadelphia organization is facing a strain on its relief unit and has good reason to keep running Parker out there. He has run up eight strikeouts without a walk thus far in Philly. While his velocity has continued to trail off, it’s still imaginable he’ll end up being worth a relatively affordable tender this fall.
Chris Herrmann, C, Athletics: It’s too soon to say on Herrmann, who’s earning just $1MM in Oakland after being non-tendered by the Astros following an offseason deal from the Mariners. He hasn’t hit a ton since making it back from a long injured list stint, but Herrmann has a nice opportunity ahead of him down the stretch. It’s certainly possible to imagine he’ll show the A’s enough to warrant a tender. You could throw teammate Robbie Grossman on this list, too, though he has produced tepid numbers in a much lengthier sample this year.
Did I miss anyone? Let me know in the comments!
5 Extended Players Amid Disappointing Seasons
The staggering number of extensions teams doled out leading up to this season was among Major League Baseball’s main storylines last spring. Some of the players who inked those deals (Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr., to name a couple) have picked up where they left off prior to receiving their new pacts. Others have fallen short of expectations, on the other hand. Here are several notable examples of just-extended players who have disappointed this season…
Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox (five years, $145MM):
- Sale’s velocity began to plummet late last year – a season limited by shoulder problems – but after the Red Sox’s latest World Series triumph in the fall, they decided to make a big-money, long-term commitment to the southpaw. Unfortunately for Boston, Sale’s velocity hasn’t really recovered (at least not to its summer 2018 levels) during what has been a less-than-ideal season for him and the reigning champions. The 30-year-old entered 2019 having never logged an ERA higher than 3.41 in a season, but the number has skyrocketed to 4.68 through 132 2/3 innings in the current campaign. Furthermore, Sale’s average exit velocity against has climbed from 84.7 mph to 88.2 since last season, while his expected weighted on-base average has soared from .238 to .292. Most pitchers would sign up for a .292 mark, though, and Sale does remain a bear to deal with despite his sudden difficulty preventing runs. His 3.55 FIP, 3.06 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA are all terrific, as his 13.09 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9. Sale is clearly still a major asset, but he hasn’t been the elite force we’ve grown accustomed to watching.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals (five years, $130MM):
- Set to turn 32 next month, Goldschmidt’s on track for the worst full season of his storied career, having hit .253/.333/.461 in 477 plate appearances. Although the former Diamondback has racked up 25 home runs, his offensive output has only been 8 percent better than the league-average batter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Goldschmidt’s walks are down, his strikeouts are up, he’s chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever, and his expected weighted on-base average – .351, a bit better than his .342 real wOBA – is down 33 points from last year. St. Louis didn’t expect any of that this season when it inked Goldschmidt to a franchise-record accord several months ago.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (five years, $52MM):
- Grichuk’s the one player on this list whose extension has already taken effect. While he is enjoying a red-hot early August, albeit one buoyed by a .533 batting average on balls in play, his season has still been a letdown compared to last year’s strong offensive showing. Never known for getting on base much throughout his career, the 27-year-old has batted .240/.296/.432 with 18 HRs across 452 PA. Grichuk’s ISO has sunk 65 points since 2018, having gone from .257 to .192. At the same time, his .286 xwOBA (compared to a .308 wOBA) only ranks in the league’s 11th percentile.
Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals (two years, $39MM):
- Carpenter, like his teammate Goldschmidt, isn’t showing encouraging signs months after landing his new contract. The 33-year-old joined Goldschmidt as one of the National League’s top players from 2013-18, but he has hit a below-average .218/.325/.368 with 10 homers in 360 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened 2019 season. Carpenter’s walk, strikeout and isolated power numbers have all gone in worrying directions, while his .320 xwOBA (superior to a .300 wOBA, granted) is merely mediocre and far below where it was in recent years. Carpenter didn’t post an xwOBA worse than .383 in any season from 2015-18.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (two years, $33.5MM):
- After four straight years of hitting .247 and three straight seasons of swatting 40-plus home runs, the low-budget Athletics took a gamble by locking up Davis to a relatively big contract. He’s off to a tough start thus far. With minus-0.5 fWAR in 388 PA, Davis has been among the majors’ least valuable players this year. He’s hitting .230/.299/.398 with 17 homers and a .168 ISO, which is 134 points lower than the figure he recorded just a year ago. Davis is also barreling approximately 7 percent fewer pitches than he did from 2016-18, and his average exit velocity has fallen about 2.5 mph compared to the previous couple years. Although the 31-year-old’s .325 xwOBA does easily outdo his .299 wOBA, it still represents a significant drop-off for a player who put up a mark upward of .370 in each of the prior three seasons. In fairness to Davis, he has battled multiple injuries this year, so perhaps he’ll rebound if healthier in 2020.