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MLBTR Originals

3 Remaining Needs: AL East

By TC Zencka and Jeff Todd | January 15, 2019 at 10:39am CDT

In the final installment of our 3 Remaining Needs series, let’s take a look at the division that boasted the best and worst teams of the 2018 season. The AL East perfectly reflects the class warfare plaguing the American League, as the gap between the competitive upper class and, well, the Orioles could not be more stark. Even within the upper crust, however, there is plenty of variance, as the low-payroll Rays have done their best to keep pace with payroll behemoths in Boston and New York. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have taken a step back but are still looking to prepare their roster for an anticipated influx of premium young talent.

[Previous installments: NL West, NL East, NL Central, AL West, AL Central]

Baltimore Orioles

  • Trade Mychal Givens. It’s a no-brainer for the Orioles to sell off their veteran pieces for prospects, only they don’t have much to sell off. Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner can be shopped, but they’d be salary dumps if they’re moveable at all and they might be better off providing a veteran base for a rotation that should have younger arms auditioning for at least two turns out of every five. The O’s have invested too much in Dylan Bundy over the years to trade him now for pennies on the dollar; better to hang onto the upside. That leaves Givens (10.3 K/9) as the most attractive piece on an otherwise barren roster. Once the major free agent bullpeners are off the market, teams should come calling for a hard-throwing late-inning arm with three seasons of control remaining.
  • Sign trade bait for July. With a hugely uncertain roster situation, the Orioles should be willing to take some risks and snap up whatever the market leaves. While they’re not likely to snag any major free agents, even on pillow deals, they should be scouring the bargain bin for vets on one-year deals that could potentially bring something back at the trade deadline. Frankly, the particular position doesn’t matter so much as the value opportunity that’s presented. Needless to say, the same reasoning also supports active waiver-wire scanning, such as the team’s recent claims of Rio Ruiz and Hanser Alberto.
  • Boost their international operations. The O’s longstanding aversion to spending on international amateur talent is well-documented. That was beginning to change before the club turned over the reins to new GM Mike Elias, but the org’s initial foray onto the market did not exactly go without a hitch as the club’s top reputed targets (Sandy Gaston and the Mesa brothers) landed elsewhere. That served as a reminder that bringing in top talent — not to mention, unearthing lower-cost gems — involves more than having and spending the available funds.

Boston Red Sox

  • Replace/re-sign Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox haven’t done much work to rebuild their bullpen as of yet, but the degree to which they’ll need to is still unknown. With no clear market developing for Kimbrel at this time, a reunion is not at all out of the question. If they don’t bring him back to Boston, they’ll need to do something to bolster a unit currently over-reliant on holdovers Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes.
  • Explore upgrades at catcher. Boston somehow managed to win a World Series in a season where its catchers batted a combined .194/.246/.288 in 619 plate appearances. Regardless of the defensive Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon can frame and throw with the best of them, and Blake Swihart (if he ever catches) may yet turn into something if given any semblance of an opportunity, but the catcher position in Boston was an utter black hole on offense last season. It wasn’t quite as bad as having a pitcher hit each time through the order, but it was closer than any AL team should be. That the team hasn’t done anything to this point suggests it may not be at the top of the priority list, but it’s hard to deny that there’s an opportunity to improve. Speaking of backstops …
  • Resolve the status of Blake Swihart. The Red Sox need to finally determine if Swihart has any kind of real role with the team. Again, it’s tough to criticize a team that won a World Series in 2018, but even Boston’s most steadfast defenders have to concede that the team didn’t exactly manage its roster all that effectively as pertains to Swihart. Boston wouldn’t put Swihart behind the plate, wouldn’t put him in the field and wouldn’t DH him. Swihart had just 48 plate appearances through May 31 in 2018 despite not spending a single day on the disabled list or in the minors. He had 99 PAs prior to the All-Star break — again, without a DL stint or any time in the minors. He can’t be optioned, and the Sox clearly don’t have a spot for him. It may have worked in 2018, but the Sox were effectively operating with a 24-man roster for a good chunk of 2018. They need more flexibility, and Swihart probably would like a chance to actually play somewhere.

New York Yankees

  • Trade Sonny Gray. Once Brian Cashman began the offseason by declaring Gray would be traded, there seemed little room for negotiation. The market for Gray may not fully materialize until all of the top starting arms are off the market, but there doesn’t seem to be much value in bringing him back to New York. There’s no room in the rotation at present, even if there are questions around the age and durability of their top five. Still, the Yanks are not shy about in-season acquisitions and they have depth in Triple A they can rely on. Specifically, Domingo German (5.57 ERA) and Luis Cessa (5.24 ERA) underperformed last season relative to advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP.
  • Seriously pursue a premium free agent. No, the Yanks do not need Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. The club won 100 games last year and is a threat to do so again (in a highly stratified American League) without making further upgrades. Still, this division — more so than the two other wings of the AL — promises to host a year-long battle. And … well … this is the Yankees we are talking about. What good is it being a financial behemoth if you can’t use your might to elbow out other teams when rare market opportunities come along? We’re not here to say that the Yankees must land one of these two players, or that they simply have to pursue both even if it makes a mess of the team’s roster and financial planning. But it would be odd if the Yanks didn’t at least put in a strong bid for either or both. With the allure of the pinstripes and New York City helping the cause, they just might come away with a bargain.
  • Add another relief arm. Whether or not the club makes any other notable roster moves, this seems like an easy way to improve. The bullpen has been a notable strength in the Bronx of late, and that promises to continue. But the deeper the unit is, the more support it can provide to a highly talented but somewhat risky rotation. Limiting the wear and tear on the starting unit will not only max out its results all year long, but give the Yankees the best chance of having a powerful staff when crunch time comes late in the season.

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Make another free agent splash. A big name would surely help the club draw some fans to the park, and perhaps help jump start a still-flagging ballpark effort. More importantly, the team can still tap into some funds to improve its chances of sneaking up on the BoSox and Yanks. As things stand, there’s still just under $60MM on the books for 2019. With a number of quality free agents still out there and awaiting a deal, the Rays should be willing to be aggressive in doling out short-term money to get significant pieces. Charlie Morton could deliver great value, and adding Avisail Garcia may be a decent risk, but there’s no reason to stop there.
  • Make a run at J.T. Realmuto. Whether or not the free agent market offers another golden opportunity, the Rays should see if they can pull of an intra-state coup by coaxing the Marlins to send their star backstop up the coast. There’s nothing wrong with a Mike Zunino–Michael Perez pairing behind the dish, but Realmuto is the game’s best. The Tampa Bay front office would have flexibility in resolving the preexisting options, particularly since Perez can still be optioned. He’d be a nice depth piece and could perhaps also remain on the roster as part of a three-catcher mix. Alternatively, the Rays could still deal away Zunino.
  • Add some veteran bullpen pieces. The Rays’ fascinating bullpen usage has shown no small amount of promise. Part of the strategy, of course, is to lean on a high volume of young pitching. But it’s hard to deny the value of veteran leadership and of established, steady performance. The current Tampa Bay bullpen unit features just one player — Chaz Roe — with more than three years of MLB service time. Allocating some remaining funds to one or more quality free agents would seem to make sense. Old friend Sergio Romo is among the many remaining possibilities.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Prepare for potential spring trades. Entering the winter, it seemed that veteran first baseman Justin Smoak would pop up in the rumor mill with some frequency. We broke down his potential suitors in anticipation of just that, but nothing of note has materialized to this point. There has been more chatter surrounding righty Marcus Stroman, but no indication to date that there’s any momentum toward a deal. Things may be quiet now, but more and more of the offseason business is stretching up to and into Spring Training, when teams will see their rosters in the flesh and injuries will begin to pop up. The Jays should anticipate some late-breaking interest in these players and be ready to pounce on any good opportunities that come up.
  • Put the payroll space to work. Neither Smoak nor Stroman need to be moved for purely financial reasons. Indeed, the Jays should also be willing at least to poke around for bargains on the market. The Jays are only projected to have a payroll of roughly $110MM next season right now, well below recent levels of spending. The team has a variety of players who have a decent amount of MLB experience but who have yet to establish themselves fully. It’s fine to give opportunities to players of that kind, but that shouldn’t be allowed to clog things up if there’s a chance to add better talent — even if it costs a bit of money. The Toronto organization could find some opportunities to acquire talent as teams make final payroll decisions, whether that takes the form of snagging unwanted arbitration-year players or taking on an under-water contract that’s packaged with prospects.
  • Add to the bullpen. The Jays have little in the way of established arms at the back of the ’pen, and even if they don’t realistically expect to contend, there’s value in having a few stabilizing pieces to prevent a constant churn of DFAs and other various 40-man machinations throughout the course of the season. Scooping up some useful arms on one- or even two-year deals can also always yield a viable summer trade chip. Last year, the club enjoyed some opportunities at the trade deadline due to its arsenal of veteran relievers, and there’s good reason to pursue a similar course again.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR Chat: Harper And Machado Edition

By Tim Dierkes | January 14, 2019 at 3:15pm CDT

As you might expect, today’s live chat with MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes included many questions involving Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Click here to read the transcript.  You can catch Tim’s chats every Monday at 2pm central time.

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MLBTR Chats MLBTR Originals

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Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings

By Ty Bradley | January 12, 2019 at 1:47pm CDT

On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.

On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?

The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius’ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots.  Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.

Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him?  Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.

LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.

Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets New York Yankees DJ LeMahieu Jed Lowrie

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Taking Stock Of The Relief Market

By Jeff Todd | January 9, 2019 at 10:24am CDT

The flow of free agency isn’t what it used to be, but there has been a fair amount of movement at the top of the bullpen market. Of the 13 relievers who earned a spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, eight are already off the board. Further down the line, though, the hurlers have mostly been left waiting.

Let’s check in on where things stand with just over a month to go before the start of Spring Training:

Premium Relievers

There’s no doubting that Craig Kimbrel remains the premium name on the market, even if it’s still not clear which teams are truly pursuing him. It’s tough to ignore his historic excellence, even if he dealt with some consistency issues at an inopportune time in 2018. Just how far his asking price will have to drop remains to be seen.

Otherwise, Adam Ottavino is perhaps the only other reliever who not only possesses top-end stuff but deployed it to full effect in the just-completed campaign. He’d still fit on any number of staffs as a set-up man or closer. Ottavino has been discussed a fair bit all winter long and still seems to have strong demand.

Top Alternative Relievers

Teams that look to the next tier of arms still have some names to consider. It wasn’t long ago that Cody Allen seemed likely to be considered among the best-available hurlers, so he could be a bargain if he’s able to get back on track. Brad Brach has also established some real upside, though he wasn’t at his best last year. Despite miserable results all year long, Ryan Madson still delivers power stuff and impeccable K/BB numbers.

Results have been strong of late for Bud Norris, who has been more effective as a reliever. Much the same can be said of Adam Warren, another former swingman who has settled in as a steady pen piece. Sergio Romo is still tough to square up, though he has been a bit prone to the long ball when good contact is made.

Teams looking for upside may look to coax former closers Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland with promises of opportunities and incentives. David Phelps and AJ Ramos are among the interesting hurlers returning from injury.

On the left side, Justin Wilson is still among the more interesting and frustrating hurlers around. He still racks up the strikeouts, but his control issues remain a major concern. Oliver Perez was shockingly effective last year, racking up a 43:7 K/BB ratio and allowing only 17 hits and five earned runs in 32 1/3 innings, though that showing came at 37 years of age and on the heels of a few decidedly less productive campaigns. Tony Sipp is another older southpaw who had a strong bounceback season.

There are other notable names, too. Luis Avilan and Xavier Cedeno have been quietly effective of late. Dan Jennings has continued to generate good results despite underwhelming underlying stats. Zach Duke’s ERA lagged his peripherals, but he was probably in the best overall form of several veteran bounceback candidates (Jerry Blevins, Jake Diekman, Aaron Loup).

Other Names To Consider

John Axford, Tony Barnette, Matt Belisle, Joaquin Benoit, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Tyler Clippard, Tim Collins, Jorge De La Rosa, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Chris Hatcher, Greg Holland, Daniel Hudson, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, George Kontos, Brandon Maurer, Zach McAllister, Peter Moylan, Drew Storen, Nick Vincent, Alex Wilson, Blake Wood

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MLBTR Originals

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Looking At The Best Remaining Landing Spots For A.J. Pollock

By Jeff Todd | January 8, 2019 at 12:25pm CDT

It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.

This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.

So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.

Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.

It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.

Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.

The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.

Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.

Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.

Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls A.J. Pollock

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Poll: The Mariners’ Direction

By Connor Byrne | January 5, 2019 at 11:28pm CDT

The 2018 Mariners piled up 89 wins, their most victories in a season since 2003, but the club still extended its playoff drought to 17 years. No North American pro sports franchise owns a longer postseason-less streak than the Mariners, who have elected to radically reconstruct their major league roster and minor league farm system over the past couple months. Believing the Mariners were neither good enough to compete for a title nor bad enough to bottom out with the talent they had, general manager Jerry Dipoto set out to “re-imagine” their roster this winter. Dipoto has done just that in ultra-aggressive fashion, having traded one familiar veteran after another in hopes of assembling a roster capable of striving for relevance as early as 2020 or ’21.

Dating back to Nov. 8, the Mariners have shipped out catcher Mike Zunino, left-hander James Paxton, second baseman Robinson Cano, shortstop Jean Segura, first baseman Carlos Santana (acquired for Segura), outfielders Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, and relievers Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, Alex Colome and James Pazos. In return, the Mariners have received a few 30-something veterans (first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak), substantial salary relief (including $64MM from the Cano trade) and a host of potential long-term pieces. The team’s hope is that recently acquired outfielder Mallex Smith, catcher Omar Narvaez, shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Domingo Santana – all major leaguers who are controllable for three or more years – will be part of the solution for the foreseeable future, and it has the same plan for the bevy of prospects it has landed in its multitude of recent trades.

Prior to Dipoto’s November/December transactions spree, the Mariners had the majors’ worst farm system and none of MLB.com’s top-1oo prospects. But they got three such farmhands – lefty Justus Sheffield (No. 31), outfielder Jarred Kelenic (No. 62) and righty Justin Dunn (No. 89) – in those trades. Unsurprisingly, thanks to the additions of Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn and an array of other prospects, the Mariners now boast one of the majors’ most improved systems, per Jim Callis of MLB.com.

Adding to the long-term optimism, the Mariners made a major strike in free agency to kick off the New Year when they signed Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi. While Kikuchi’s not on the level of countryman Shohei Ohtani, whom Dipoto badly wanted last winter before he signed with the division-rival Angels, he could nonetheless be a game-changing acquisition. Kikuchi will slot in near the top of the Mariners’ rotation immediately, and at 27, he’s young enough and controllable for long enough (possibly through 2025) that he could be a key factor for perennially contending Seattle clubs. The same applies to Smith, Narvaez, Crawford, Santana, Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn (and the other acquired prospects), not to mention outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-hander Marco Gonzales.

Haniger and Gonzales – each controllable for the next handful of years – stand out as the most valuable players remaining from last season’s Mariners team. Both players, especially Haniger, no doubt possess high trade value, but it seems they’ll remain on hand as prominent members of Seattle’s next core. Still, with several other trade candidates on the roster (Encarnacion, Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon, third baseman Kyle Seager and righty Mike Leake), the ever-active Dipoto may not be done flipping veterans for prospects and/or future salary room in advance of next season.

No matter what happens between now and Opening Day, the Mariners’ 2019 roster will look far different than it did last year, when the club tallied the majors’ 11th-most wins but once again fell short of a playoff spot. Are you on board with Seattle’s decision to take a step back in 2019 with the goal of becoming a perennial contender thereafter? Or should Dipoto & Co. have taken more of a win-now approach this winter in an effort to snap the team’s embarrassing playoff drought next season?

(poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners

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3 Remaining Needs: AL Central

By Ty Bradley | January 2, 2019 at 8:24pm CDT

Our 3 Remaining Needs series skips over to the Cleveland-dominated American League Central, home to three of MLB’s least successful franchises in 2018. The Tribe still figure to have a stranglehold on the division, though the upstart Twins have kicked off the winter with a flurry of moves, and prospect-rich White Sox are shooting well beyond their typical free-agent moon. Here’s a look at the three most pressing needs for each team in the division (listed in order of 2018 finish) . . .

[Previous installments: NL West, NL East, NL Central, AL West]

Cleveland Indians

  • Find an outfielder (or three). The Tribe probably don’t need to do anything this winter if their aim is simply to lock down a fourth straight division crown, but surely the title-starved club, rife with franchise icons on the infield and in the rotation, has set its sights a good deal higher. If so, they’ll need to fix their desolate outfield situation, which currently features some haphazard mix of Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, Leonys Martin, Greg Allen, and Tyler Naquin. Jason Kipnis could be an option as well, though the club has already swapped penciled-in third baseman Yandy Diaz for Bauers, which should force Jose Ramirez back to the hot corner and Kipnis – who suffered through a second consecutive subpar season in ’18 – back to second. The Indians saved about $18MM by dealing Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, so this should be their first priority.
  • Address the pen. Behind star-level closer Brad Hand, the Tribe pen is surprisingly thin. Tyler Olson, essentially a LOOGY at this point in his career, is otherwise the club’s highest-producing returner, with a 2.94 xFIP in just 29 IP. Stunningly, not a single other returning Indian reliever posted higher than 0.1 fWAR in 2018, with heralded midseason acquisition Adam Cimber posting a dreadful 3.15 K/9 over an identical 3.15 BB/9 in his stint with the club. Cleveland has long treasured bargain pickups in this area, and may again be left shuffling through the bin in search of help.
  • Acquire a catcher. Recent deals have stripped the club of star prospect Francisco Mejia and the up-and-down Yan Gomes, leaving just a combination of Roberto Perez and Eric Haase behind the dish, each of whom project around replacement level. An upper-minors savior isn’t in the wings, so the club will likely be forced to look elsewhere for an upgrade.

Minnesota Twins

  • Solidify the back end of the rotation.  The Twins have gone all-in on righty power (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop) this winter, but have still yet to address a number of staff holes.  A top end of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Kyle Gibson – plus a returning Michael Pineda – is a nice start, but three of the four are free agents after the season, and the club has little in the way of track record after that. Youngsters Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, and Fernando Romero could fill in eventually, but none appear poised to immediately lock down a role.
  • Shore up the pen. Taylor Rogers quietly had one of MLB’s best relief seasons in 2018 (a dominant 54 FIP-) and Trevor May is a quality arm, but the Twins lack anything in the way of cohesion beyond that. Figureheads Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger struggled mightily with the long ball last year and, with the fickle nature of even longtime bullpen success stories, can hardly be counted on in the season to come. Lefty Andrew Vasquez deserves at least an early-season look after sporting minor league numbers that nearly defy belief, but the club would do well to hunt down two or three more proven performers in the back end.
  • Don’t mess with Kepler. German-born Max Kepler has accrued nearly three full seasons’ worth of MLB at-bats in his young career and has yet to produce even a league-average line, but a closer look suggests there may be much more to come. Indeed, the 25-year-old quietly accumulated a solid 2.6 fWAR last season despite a balls-in-play average of just .236, and his plate-discipline profile (11.6 BB%/15.7 K%) stood as one of the AL’s best. Kepler earns plus defensive marks wherever he plays, and could be a breakout center-field candidate if Byron Buxton again sputters early in the season. Kepler is an apparently a sought-after commodity on the trade market this winter, but the man who Steamer projects to produce a 110 wRC+ (Brandon Nimmo, by comparison, is at 112) should have a long-term home in Minneapolis.

Detroit Tigers

  • Find a taker for Nick Castellanos. Castellanos, 26, had his best offensive season last year, slashing .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) with a celestial 48% hard-hit rate. He’s entering the last year of team control, though, and would seem to have to have little on-field value for a rebuilding Tiger club; numerous teams are said to have had interest, but the price (somewhat oddly, given his defensive ineptitude) remains exorbitant.
  • Continue to hunt for flip candidates. Thus far in the offseason, Detroit has signed Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Jordy Mercer, all of whom (but especially the former two) could have legitimate mid-season trade value if they unexpectedly return to form. Pickups of this ilk seem ideal for a Tiger team in flux; a few more, perhaps at multiple spots in the outfield and in the bullpen, could be an excellent jumpstart for the nascent rebuild.
  • Add prospect depth. It’s been years – decades, maybe – since the Tiger farm churned out multiple big leaguers at a time, with the team instead preferring to assemble their best clubs through shrewd trades and lavish free-agent signings. Now, though, seems the perfect time to amass a burgeoning juggernaut on the farm; the club is off to a great start, with three of the league’s top-50 prospects in place, but strength in numbers will be the order of the next few seasons in Motown.

Chicago White Sox

  • Sign one of (or both) Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.  This remains a long shot, to be sure, but the talk in Chicagoland seems to be intensifying around each superstar. Whether the White Sox, who’ve never handed out a free-agent contract north of $70MM in club history, are willing to meet the respective enormous demands is unclear, but a seat at the table may be sufficient for the long-suffering fans on the Southside.
  • Find guys who put the ball in play. The White Sox led baseball with a hard-to-believe 26.3 K% last year, and received meager ancillary benefit, with a mid-pack team ISO of just .160. Among regulars, only Jose Abreu had a strikeout percentage under 20%, which may well be a first in major-league history. A power-driven lineup makes sense in the homer-happy Guaranteed Rate Field, but it won’t mean much if the club continues to strike out at a historic collective pace.
  • Find guys who keep the ball in play. Chicago’s 115 xFIP- was dead-last in MLB last year, aided in no small part by a league-worst 4.09 BB/9 and the tendency of its starters to deliver up the gopher ball. Head culprit James Shields is gone, but the club needs, urgently, to be on the scent of pitchers with a track record of limiting the home run. Perhaps no pitcher would be a better fit than Marcus Stroman (0.81 career HR/9), but others, like Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Sonny Gray, and even perhaps Martin Perez, who was homer-allergic in his previous few seasons prior to last, would be excellent choices as well.

Kansas City Royals

  • Scour the depths for pitching help. Kansas City’s pitching staff was, by any account, an unmitigated disaster last season, as the team’s hurlers struck out a mere 7.27 men per nine on the way to near-league-worst output. The team, oddly, has poured so much of its resources into finding high-contact offensive players, but seems thoroughly disinterested in identifying their inverse on the pitching staff. The 2018 Royals featured nine regular contributors who struck out seven or fewer men last season, none of whom received much help from the unit’s highest-priced contingent of Ian Kennedy and Danny Duffy. Put simply, the Royals need mound help wherever they can find it.
  • Cash in peak-value assets. 30-year-old Whit Merrifield’s value will likely never be higher – fresh off a 5.2 fWAR season, the versatile IF/OF has already piqued the interest of a number of a clubs, all of whom have been informed that he likely is not available. Such a strategy seems unsound – Merrifield, after all, projects around league-average next season, would seem to have hit his zenith, and doesn’t figure to be a key cog in the next contending Royals club. Plus, there’s the troubling track record – it took Whit three tries to progress beyond Double-A, and another three to get past AAA. If a crater is on the horizon, Kansas City will certainly be kicking themselves in the seasons to come.
  • Find regular at-bats for Brett Phillips and Jorge Soler. The two former top-50 prospects have seen their value slide precipitously over the last two seasons, but it’s certainly not time to give up on either yet. Alex Gordon and the newly-signed Billy Hamilton figure to take up two-thirds of the outfield slots, and team favorite Jorge Bonifacio is likely to contend at the other, but the non-contending Royals must find a way to get both of these players at least 400 plate appearances in 2019.
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3 Remaining Needs: NL West

By TC Zencka and Connor Byrne | January 1, 2019 at 8:26pm CDT

In the latest edition of MLBTR’s “3 Remaining Needs” series, we’ll focus on the National League West, a division ruled by the iron-fist of the Dodgers — division champs for six years running. With at least two playoff teams in each of the last three seasons, however, the competition remains fierce. Though the Diamondbacks are likely to take a step back this year, the Giants have new leadership in the front office, the Padres have the foreword to their Cinderella story ready to print, and the Rockies will be giving all they’ve got in what could be Nolan Arenado’s last season in Colorado.

[Previous installments: NL East, NL Central, AL West]

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Replace A.J. Pollock. Whether they move Ketel Marte to center field or find a replacement on the trade market, the position needs to be addressed. Jarrod Dyson doesn’t offer enough upside, even to build value as a trade candidate, nor do the veterans signed to minor league deals thus far this offseason (Abraham Almonte, Kelby Tomlinson, Matt Szczur). They can attempt to build the value of an otherwise depreciating asset, a la Socrates Brito, they can move Marte to center and sign a stopgap veteran to flip at the deadline, a la Asdrubal Cabrera or Brian Dozier, or they can engage the trade market for an option in between those two, a la Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Pillar or Randal Grichuk.
  • Trade Zack Greinke. Or if not Greinke, then at least one of Robbie Ray or Zack Godley. The Dbacks also have winter acquisitions Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly slated for the rotation, plus Taijuan Walker aiming for a midseason return. That’s not necessarily a terrible collection if they’re looking to contend, but considering the Dodgers depth, the Rockies urgency, and the sleeping giant in San Diego, it’s a tough row to hoe for the Diamondbacks in the West, and the Wild Card race is no less forgiving – especially now that they’ve bolstered a perennial contender in St. Louis. Assuming Arizona is willing to take a step back – even if just for a year – then it behooves them to make room at the major league level for the group of Jon Duplantier, Taylor Widener and Taylor Clarke, their #1, #2 and #11 ranked prospects (per MLB.com). All three are at least 24 and coming off strong seasons in either Double or Triple A. Clarke is the closest, but also has the lowest ceiling, which is even more reason to give him a go while the others season in Triple A. Besides, trading one of their major league starters will help accomplish task #3.
  • Further build prospect depth. They’ve got a ton of top 100 draft picks in June and already jumpstarted their youth movement by trading Goldschmidt and letting Corbin and (presumably) Pollock walk. While they’re at it, they should explore lesser returns for Nick Ahmed, Andrew Chafin, Yoshihisa Hirano or Alex Avila. They’ve resisted overtures for David Peralta thus far, but he’s 31 and still controllable on a year-to-year basis through 2020, which makes him perfect for a contender like Cleveland.

Colorado Rockies

  • Upgrade at catcher. Extending Arenado maybe should be the main priority, but if he’s set on testing free agency, the Rockies would do just as well devoting their energy to making Colorado as attractive a destination as possible, and that means building a sustainable winner. The budget is likely too tight for Yasmani Grandal, but Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters struggled at the dish last season, so if they can backload a deal to spike after 2020 when most of their long-term money comes off the books,
  • Add a veteran to the bench. The Rockies are in the midst of a mini youth movement with David Dahl, Garrett Hampson, Ryan McMahon and Raimel Tapia slated for significant playing time. They’ve added Daniel Murphy, who likely replaces DJ LeMahieu, but they could use a vet on the bench to fill the shoes of Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday and Gerardo Parra.
  • Keep an eye on pitching. The Rockies have their best rotation in years, but they could use an extra arm at the right price. Antonio Senzatela has the inside track on the fifth starter role for now, and they have a host of options in the organization, but there’s room for the right guy. Same goes for the bullpen, which is stocked with high-priced veterans like Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Mike Dunn. They need to replace the production they received last season from Adam Ottavino, but they may want to give this group a couple months to make it work. Basically, they have no cause to overreach on pitching, but if they have a target or two they like whose prices drop, they should be ready to bite.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Find a catcher. Say what you will about Grandal’s playoff woes, but he was still a top-notch regular-season producer with the Dodgers from 2015-18. Now a free agent, reports have indicated the 30-year-old Grandal is unlikely to return to the Dodgers. At the major league level, the Grandal-less Dodgers are bereft at catcher aside from Austin Barnes, who took sizable steps backward last season after an excellent 2017. The Dodgers do have a pair of appealing backstop prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, but they aren’t ready to assume the reins yet. Los Angeles will at least need to find a stopgap, then, though free agency’s not teeming with possibilities. If healthy, the Pirates’ Francisco Cervelli– who has reportedly been on the Dodgers’ radar – would make for a nice one-year Band-Aid. Former Dodger Russell Martin might also be available, but the current Blue Jay owns a pricey $20MM salary. Welington Castillo of the White Sox ($7.75MM guaranteed) could become expendable if Chicago goes after Grandal, and the Mets have two trade candidates in Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. Of course, the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto is far and away the premier option on the market, and the Dodgers have been involved in talks for him. However, LA is not ready to meet Miami’s lofty demands for the 27-year-old.
  • Land another offensive threat, especially if Realmuto doesn’t end up in LA. The Dodgers’ offense led the majors in wRC+ and finished fourth in runs in 2018, but the group has since lost Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Manny Machado. The back-to-back NL pennant winners still carry a boatload of formidable producers – including Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager (whose 2018 absence paved the way for the Machado pickup), Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Joc Pederson – but why stop there? The Dodgers don’t seem inclined to, judging by their interest in No. 1 free agent Bryce Harper and Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – a righty who’d provide balance to a lefty-heavy lineup.
  • You can never have enough great starting pitching. Even though they traded Alex Wood to the Reds this month, the Dodgers’ starting staff remains as deep as any in the game. As things stand, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson and Dennis Santana represent a group of rather strong choices. Nevertheless, the Dodgers may want another front-end presence to join Kershaw (who hasn’t been as durable or as otherworldly of late) and Buehler, as they’ve pursued a trade for the Indians’ Corey Kluber. The two-time AL Cy Young winner has exceeded 200 innings in each season since 2014. That type of durability would be a breath of fresh air for the Dodgers, who have seen Kershaw, Ryu, Hill and Urias deal with significant injuries in recent years.

San Diego Padres

  • Acquire a top of the rotation veteran. The Padres have been linked to Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray recently – they clearly want to bring in a veteran to anchor their young rotation. Clayton Richard, their innings leader form a year ago, was recently cut loose, signaling a raising of the bar in San Diego. They’re looking not just for an innings eater, but a quality ace to set the standard on the hill. Joey Lucchesi, 25 had a solid rookie season, sporting a 4.08 ERA, 2.98 BB/9 to 10.04 K/9, but he needs some help in the rotation if the Padres are going to start to push the Rockies and Dodgers.
  • Get a third baseman. Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva, Cory Spangenberg and Chase Headley were the four Padres who saw action at third in 2018, and three are now gone. Villanueva’s in Japan, Spanbenberg’s a Brewer and Headley has fallen off the map since the Padres released him last May. Myers, meanwhile, is more a fit at first base – where, because of Eric Hosmer’s presence, he can no longer play in San Diego – or in the corner outfield. As a result, upgrading at the hot corner is reportedly the Padres’ No. 1 priority heading into next season. Whether they can do it is the question. While the Padres seem bullish on Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar, whom the Bombers may move this offseason, they likely don’t have the ammunition at the major league level to acquire him. The Padres could also try for the Phillies’ Maikel Franco, whom they had interest in last summer and who will lose his spot in Philly if it signs Machado. In terms of salary, more expensive trade candidates include the Mariners’ Kyle Seager (though he could be immovable for Seattle), the Marlins’ Martin Prado, the Mets’ Todd Frazier, and current Cardinal and ex-Padre Jedd Gyorko. Free agency features Hosmer’s pal Mike Moustakas, among other less exciting choices.
  • Clear the outfield logjam. Along with Myers, the Padres have a gaggle of other MLB outfielders in Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. Excluding Myers, San Diego could option any of those players to the minors, but the team may be better off moving at least one of them if it helps address a position of greater need. The Padres could try to deal Myers, but despite his middling production from 2017-18 and the $64MM left on his contract, they’re still bullish on the 28-year-old. It seems more likely another outfielder will go.

San Francisco Giants

  • Acquire at least one starting outfielder. Perhaps the Giants could help the Padres with their backlog of outfielders, if the two division rivals are willing to make a trade. Few 2018 teams were worse off in the grass than the Giants, whose outfielders hit an ugly .238/.307/.363 with 0.1 fWAR over nearly 2,200 plate appearances. The only bright spot was Andrew McCutchen, whom the Giants traded to the Yankees in August and who’s now on the Phillies. So now what? Well, new team president Farhan Zaidi wants the Giants to get younger and more athletic. The 26-year-old Harper checks the young and athletic boxes, but there’s no indication the Giants are interested in coming anywhere close to his asking price. Unfortunately for the Giants, no one else in free agency looks like a perfect fit, but that’s not to say it would be wise to avoid the open market entirely. On the trade front, the Giants have reportedly shown interest in Blue Jays defensive standout Kevin Pillar, who will turn 30 on Jan. 4. Pillar has never been a real threat at the plate, meaning he wouldn’t do a lot to upgrade a San Francisco offense which scored the majors’ second-fewest runs in 2018. Nevertheless, as a player who has totaled at least 2.0 fWAR four years in a row, he’d give the Giants a desperately needed quality regular in the outfield. With Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson and Chris Shaw penciled into No. 1 roles, the Giants don’t have a single established starter in the grass at this juncture.
  • Add to the pitching staff. Derek Holland led all Giants in innings last season and was quite effective from their rotation, but he’s now a free agent. Whether he’ll return is unclear, but San Francisco’s probably going to have to re-sign him or bring in someone else capable of eating innings. Madison Bumgarner is coming off back-to-back injury-shortened years and, if he’s not a trade candidate prior to the 2019 campaign, may become one by midseason; Jeff Samardzija had a horrendous 2018, both because of injury and performance issues; Johnny Cueto may not pitch in 2019, having undergone Tommy John surgery; and while there’s hope for Dereck Rodriguez, Chris Stratton and Andrew Suarez, only Rodriguez’s production was worth writing home about last season. Yusei Kikuchi – whom the Giants “scouted extensively,” according to Zaidi – would’ve been a great fit. Sadly for San Francisco, he’s going to Seattle. The 27-year-old Kikuchi may have been the only long-term possibility in free agency for the Giants, as nearly everyone remaining on the market is over 30. But there are a lot of hurlers in that bunch who could be sensible, affordable short-term targets, and the Giants could use pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to their advantage to scoop up at least one of them. The same logic applies to the Giants’ bullpen. Their relief unit performed well last year, but there could be an opening or two to fill if the Giants trade Will Smith or Tony Watson.
  • Bolster the catching and infield depth. After undergoing season-ending hip surgery in August, catcher Buster Posey may not be ready at the start of the upcoming campaign. There’s little behind him in San Francisco, whose only other 40-man catcher is Aramis Garcia, though it could select ex-Phillies starter Cameron Rupp from Triple-A at some point. Free agent Nick Hundley, Posey’s backup from 2017-18, could return to the team. Across the infield, the Giants seem to have set starters at every position, but it’s not the promising group it would’ve looked like a few years back. Injury-prone first baseman Brandon Belt battled more health issues last season and dealt with a dip in production, and has been in trade rumors this month; second baseman Joe Panik was neither good nor healthy; shortstop Brandon Crawford wasn’t the same player from 2017-18 that he was over the prior two years; and third baseman Evan Longoria, at 33, appears to have hit a wall. Alen Hanson and Pablo Sandoval lead the Giants’ depth options, but there’s room for more. The team agrees, evidenced by its recent reported interest in free agents Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Harrison.
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How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2018

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2019 at 1:13pm CDT

We took a look this morning at what National League teams have done to improve their weakest position (as per bWAR) from the past season, and now let’s turn our attention to the 15 American League clubs….

Angels (Third base, -0.1 bWAR): Unfortunately for the Halos, this was a close competition to decide their least-productive position, as they received an even 0.0 bWAR from first base and only 0.1 bWAR from their right fielders.  L.A. will be counting on a healthy season from Zack Cozart to upgrade the hot corner, though if the Angels were able to land Josh Harrison, Cozart could be shifted to second base while Harrison plays third, with sophomore infielder David Fletcher backing up both positions.  In right field, the Angels are hoping Kole Calhoun can bounce back from a rough season, though there has been some speculation that the team could try to unload Calhoun to free up some payroll space.  Justin Bour was signed to play first base in at least a timeshare with Albert Pujols, though given how Pujols has struggled in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the future Hall-of-Famer supplanted by Bour and DH Shohei Ohtani (once Ohtani returns from Tommy John surgery) entirely.

Astros (Left field, 1.3 bWAR): Michael Brantley is coming to Houston after signing a two-year, $32MM deal, giving the Astros perhaps an overload of left-handed outfielders, though Brantley should provide some solid pop in the lineup.  The Astros’ second-weakest area was their 1.4 bWAR from their designated hitters, though Brantley is likely to help in that regard as well, as his injury history will probably mean that he gets the occasional partial-rest day as the DH.  Houston has continued to be linked to such first base/DH options as Edwin Encarnacion or the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez, so the DH spot could still receive some more attention.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.5 bWAR): Even after signing Chris Herrmann to pair with Josh Phegley, Oakland continues to be on the lookout for a more stable everyday backstop.  A reunion with Jonathan Lucroy won’t be happening now that Lucroy has signed with the Angels.  Assuming Yasmani Grandal is too expensive for the A’s, there isn’t much in the way of a clear upgrade from a hitting perspective left on the free agent catching market, though Martin Maldonado provides a nice defensive boost.  I’d guess that a trade is more likely if the A’s are to land another regular catcher.

Blue Jays (Left field, 0.2 bWAR): Teoscar Hernandez saw the bulk of the left field playing time last season, hitting .239/.302/.468 for a 107 wRC+ over 523 PA, but also looking completely out of his element defensively.  While the rebuilding Jays are likely to give Hernandez another shot to prove he can handle the position, he won’t have a very long leash, as Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, and Dwight Smith Jr. are all on hand to soak up playing time and perhaps relegate Hernandez to future DH duty.  Toronto also received only 0.4 bWAR at both second base and third base last season, though the team hopes that uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will soon provide a major splash at the hot corner.  Brandon Drury will handle third base until Guerrero arrives, and then slide over to second base in a timeshare or perhaps an everyday role if Devon Travis doesn’t improve on a rough 2018 campaign.

Indians (Right field, 0.5 bWAR): Cleveland has spent much of its offseason focus on cutting payroll and overhauling its first base/DH situation, leaving a lot of work still to be done on the Tribe’s biggest weakness, its shaky outfield.  Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Lonnie Chisenhall have all signed elsewhere, while Cleveland’s only additions have been Jordan Luplow, minor league signings Trayce Thompson and Brandon Barnes, and first baseman Jake Bauers, who could see a bit of time as a corner outfielder.  The Indians have looked to add young outfielders in trade talks about their starting pitching, with names like the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo or the Reds’ Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell popping up on the Tribe’s radar, though it remains to be seen if Cleveland still feels the financial need to move Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Mariners (First base, 0.1 bWAR): Technically, Seattle has added Edwin Encarnacion to handle first, though the M’s are widely expected to flip Encarnacion elsewhere as part of their stunning roster overhaul.  With the Mariners firmly in rebuild mode for at least 2019, they might choose to just rely on internal options for first base, like giving another shot to Ryon Healy and/or Dan Vogelbach.  Jay Bruce is also on hand to play some first base, if he isn’t also traded before Opening Day.

Orioles (First base, -2.5 bWAR): Baltimore already cleaned house on many of its veterans at the last trade deadline, though Chris Davis (and the $92MM remaining on his contract) is all but immovable in the wake of Davis’ horrific 2018 season.  There’s nothing the O’s can really do here except hope that Davis can regain some of his old form.  If the O’s are able to trade Mark Trumbo in the last year of his contract, you could see Trey Mancini gets moved to first base and Davis shifted into DH duty, as the rebuilding Orioles obviously want to prioritize Mancini’s development and may want to get him to a more defensively-friendly position than left field.

Rangers (Center field, 0.2 bWAR): Roster Resource currently has Joey Gallo slated as the Texas center fielder, as a nod to the Rangers’ acquisition of Patrick Wisdom for third base and the team’s glut of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield options.  While Gallo’s versatility is a nice weapon for the Rangers to utilize, and he has acquitted himself well defensively over 100 career innings in center field, nobody sees him as a regular answer at the position.  Delino DeShields has the glove and the baserunning for center, though his hitting cratered last season and he had trouble staying healthy last year.  The Rangers could add a low-cost veteran outfielder into the mix, simply because Gallo and DeShields are both imperfect enough fits to work as a proper timeshare, though Texas might first have to deal another first baseman/corner outfielder to find another everyday spot for Gallo’s bat.

Rays (First base, 1.4 bWAR): Just when you thought Jake Bauers was the first baseman of the future, the Rays dealt him to the Cleveland as part of a three-team swap that saw Yandy Diaz come back to Tampa Bay.  Diaz’s positional versatility makes him a better fit with the Rays’ desire to mix and match around the diamond, which leaves Ji-Man Choi as the top choice at either first base or DH, with Diaz, Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, or perhaps prospect Nathaniel Lowe all rotating through the other position as matchups dictate.  There continue to be whispers that the Rays could acquire a more potent bat for its first base/DH mix, however, so stay tune.  Right field (1.6 bWAR) and catcher (1.7 bWAR) were also relative weak spots for Tampa, though the team hopes that Austin Meadows can step into regular outfield duty now that Mallex Smith has been dealt, and Mike Zunino was acquired in the Smith trade to address the Rays’ longstanding need behind the plate.

Red Sox (Catcher, -1.4 bWAR): Boston is reportedly still getting some calls about its catchers, even though the trio of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart provided sub-replacement level production for the team in its World Series season.  Vazquez and Leon can at least hang their hats on good defense and game-calling ability, while Swihart isn’t too far removed from being a top prospect, even if his ultimate future might not be behind the plate.  The Red Sox seem satisfied with their mix at least from a defensive standpoint, though I’m surprised that the Sox have rarely been mentioned as candidates to acquire a new catcher, whether it’s a big name like J.T. Realmuto or even just a regular who can provide at least average production.  It’s worth noting that Boston also received negative bWAR totals at third base (-0.4) and second base (-0.2).  The Sox will count on improvement from Rafael Devers for the former, and will be hoping that Dustin Pedroia can return healthy next season, with Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez on hand as infield backups.

Royals (Relief pitching, -3.0 bWAR): The old “Law Firm” bullpen of the 2015 World Series run was a distant memory for the 2018 Royals, who endured some brutal relief pitching among the team’s many struggles last season.  The Royals haven’t done anything to really address their pen thus far, and in fact have added more inexperience in the form of Rule 5 Draft pickups Chris Ellis and Sam McWilliams.  Expect K.C. to pursue the usual rebuilding-team strategy of signing a couple of inexpensive veteran arms, who can ideally help stabilize the pen in the first few months of the season and then be flipped at the trade deadline.

Tigers (DH, -0.9 bWAR): Now that Victor Martinez has retired, the Tigers can get a bit more flexibility from their DH spot by giving Miguel Cabrera some regular rest days away from first base, or the team could give some rest to defensively-challenged bats like Christin Stewart or Nick Castellanos (assuming Castellanos isn’t traded, of course).  Detroit also received just -0.5 bWAR at catcher last season, and has since parted ways with longtime backstop James McCann.  Greyson Greiner and John Hicks now comprise the catching corps, and while veteran Bobby Wilson was signed for depth, the Tigers are likely to add at least one more experienced backstop going into Spring Training.  Interestingly, the Tigers asked the Dodgers about catching prospect Keibert Ruiz as part of trade talks involving Castellanos, though L.A. balked at the request.

Twins (First base, 0.8 bWAR): C.J. Cron’s 30-homer career year with the Rays last season earned him nothing more than a trip to DFA limbo, leading Minnesota to claim the veteran to step in as Joe Mauer’s replacement.  Cron doesn’t bring much to the table apart from decent hitting numbers, though even duplicating his 2.0 bWAR 2018 season would be a solid upgrade for the Twins, especially at his arbitration-avoiding $4.8MM salary.

White Sox (Left field, -0.5 bWAR): Chicago was regarded as something of a sleeping giant this offseason, though their most notable acquisitions (Yonder Alonso, Alex Colome and Ivan Nova) have been more of the modest variety than any true game-changers.  It could be that they’re waiting to see how things stand as one of three apparent finalists for Manny Machado, though the Sox are reportedly wary of spending the kind of gigantic money it will take to land Machado or Bryce Harper.  The White Sox were linked to Brantley before he signed with Houston, and they have at least some level of interest in Harper, indicating that the team is taking steps to remake its poor outfield production.  Chicago outfielders combined for just a cumulative -0.3 bWAR last season, the second-lowest total of any outfield in baseball.  Avisail Garcia has already been non-tendered, leaving the Sox with a current combination of Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, Daniel Palka, and Leury Garcia that is still begging for an upgrade.  There haven’t yet been any reports connecting the White Sox to A.J. Pollock, the top non-Harper outfielder in free agency, though Pollock makes sense for Chicago on paper.

Yankees (First base, 0.6 bWAR): Late-season folk hero Luke Voit and former top prospect Greg Bird are slated for first base duty next season, though it seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop with Machado.  If Machado does end up in New York, it could lead to Miguel Andujar being traded, unless the Yankees see more value in keeping Andujar and simply installing him at first base.  Given Andujar’s defensive shortcomings as a third base, a move across the diamond might not be a bad idea even if Machado signs elsewhere.  Didi Gregorius’ injury absence has created a lot of moving parts within the Yankees’ infield, as New York could shift Gleyber Torres to play shortstop and then require a second baseman, Andujar could be traded or change positions, Machado could sign, etc.  With all this uncertainty and several trade possibilities to consider, I’d be a little surprised if Voit or Bird is the Opening Day first baseman, though the Yankees could address other needs and stand pat at first base, if for no other reason than to give Voit a longer look.

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How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2018

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2019 at 9:59am CDT

While we’re not even halfway through the offseason yet, the start of the new year feels like a natural checkpoint to look at what the National League’s 15 teams have done to upgrade themselves so far this winter.  Specifically, we’ll see what each NL team has done in regards to its least-productive position in 2018, as determined by bWAR.  Needless to say, we’ll ignore the DH category in this look at the National League’s clubs, and we can also set aside the pinch-hitter category unless a team has made significant strides with its bench.  The breakdown…

Braves (Relief pitching. 2.0 bWAR): Atlanta wins the door prize as the team with the best “worst” position, as you might expect from a division winner’s well-rounded roster.  It could also be argued that the Braves could improve from within, in the form of a healthy season from closer Arodys Vizcaino and some new blood in the form of the team’s many young starter candidates, who could be deployed as relief depth.  Still, a top-tier reliever (as either a closer or set-up man) would go a long way towards making the Braves’ pen into a true strength.  Atlanta has been more focused on position players and starting pitchers than relievers this winter, though the Braves had been linked to Edwin Diaz and Joakim Soria before those two landed on new teams.  There has been some speculation that Atlanta could pursue a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, but only if Kimbrel drastically lowers his reported asking price.  Given the Braves’ prospect depth and GM Alex Anthopoulos’ creativity in swinging deals, the team can’t be counted out in any sort of trade scenario for a high-profile reliever.

Brewers (Shortstop, -0.1 bWAR): Orlando Arcia turned in a sub-replacement season that saw him post his typical subpar batting line and also middling defensive numbers (-0.3 UZR/150, though a +4 Defensive Runs Saved).  There hasn’t been much indication that Milwaukee is ready to move on from Arcia, however, since he’s only just 24 and his hitting did improve later in the season, plus he was actually one of the Brewers’ hottest bats during their postseason run.  The Brewers have been more focused on second base upgrades rather than shortstops, though the team was one of many who observed Troy Tulowitzki’s recent open workout for scouts.  Tulowitzki fits the model of a short-term veteran who could back up Arcia and also provide cover at second or third base in a pinch, and he could be a lottery ticket on the off-chance that he stays healthy and regains any of his old All-Star form.

Cardinals (Relief pitching, -2.7 bWAR): The Andrew Miller signing was a bold strike for a Cards pen that has struggled to find consistent left-handed relief in recent years.  Miller struggled with injuries in 2018, though if he returns to his form of the previous three seasons, he is the type of elite arm that can greatly enhance a relief corps by himself.  St. Louis probably won’t add another premium reliever in the wake of their deal with Miller, though another depth arm could be acquired, or perhaps a veteran free agent who is still available deep into Spring Training and could be had at a bargain price.

Cubs (Center field, 1.8 bWAR): Albert Almora displayed some excellent glovework but didn’t hit, while Ian Happ had a 106 wRC+ but was a mediocre fielder in his 403 2/3 innings as a center fielder last season.  Jason Heyward also saw some center field time last season and contributed his usual good defensive performance, while still struggling to contribute at the plate.  It seems likely that Chicago will continue with this mix in 2019, as the club might use what seemingly limited payroll flexibility it has on other areas of need.

Diamondbacks (Catcher and right field, -0.3 bWAR): After being acquired from the Cardinals as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Carson Kelly goes from being blocked by Yadier Molina to being Arizona’s catcher of the future.  Kelly also figures to be a big part of the Diamondbacks’ present, as he will likely get the bulk of playing time as the D’Backs split at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, and John Ryan Murphy.  As for right field, the D’Backs are hoping for a better year from Steven Souza Jr., who was limited to just 72 games and 272 plate appearances while battling a nagging pectoral injury.

Dodgers (Second base, 0.7 bWAR): Breakout star Max Muncy and super-utilityman Enrique Hernandez are the Dodgers’ top two current options at second base, and going with this pair could be an improvement simply by dint of moving on from the unproductive trio of Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, and Chase Utley.  Still, with Muncy and Hernandez perhaps needed elsewhere around the diamond as part of the Dodgers’ perpetual juggling of positions, L.A. has also been linked to DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as potential free agent targets.

Giants (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): It’s been a very quiet winter in San Francisco, as new GM Farhan Zaidi continues to evaluate his roster and figure out what to do with the Giants’ plethora of highly-paid but underachieving players.  Outfield continues to be San Francisco’s most obvious need, as the team will look to add some experience to a young mix of Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, and projected everyday center fielder Steven Duggar.  Whatever additions the Giants do make, they’re likely to be of the short-term variety, so you can probably cross the Giants off the list of potential Bryce Harper suitors.

Marlins (Relief pitching, -8.3 bWAR): Yes, you’re reading that correctly.  The Marlins were far worse than even the league’s 29th-best bullpen, the Royals and their -3.0 bWAR collective mark.  Furthermore, Miami has already traded one of its better arms in Kyle Barraclough, moved to the Nationals in a rare early-October swap.  The rebuilding Marlins certainly won’t be spending big on any major upgrades, and will instead likely look to add a couple of low-cost veterans to try and stabilize the relief corps as much as possible.

Mets (First base, -0.6 bWAR): Brodie Van Wagenen’s roster overhaul has included some action at first base, as Jay Bruce (who probably wasn’t going to find much time in the crowded Mets outfield) was sent to the Mariners as part of the blockbuster Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal.  While top prospect Peter Alonso figures to arrive sometime in 2019, the Mets have a variety of options in the meantime.  Jeff McNeil or Todd Frazier could see time at first, former well-regarded Dominic Smith is still in the mix, or Cano could get some first base at-bats while McNeil spells him at second base.

Nationals (Second base, -0.6 bWAR): You may be surprised to learn that catcher wasn’t Washington’s biggest weak point in 2018, though the Nats’ backstops weren’t far behind at -0.4 bWAR.  While the newly-acquired Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki should be a big help behind the plate, the Nats also haven’t been lax in observing the second base market.  LeMahieu, Harrison, Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie are some of the names Washington has reportedly been in contact with, so it seems likely that some type of addition will be made before Opening Day.  Internally, Wilmer Difo is on hand, plus Howie Kendrick will be back after missing most of last season due to a ruptured Achilles.

Padres (Starting pitching, -4.1 bWAR): It seems like the Padres have checked in on virtually every pitcher available in free agency or the trade market, as they are aiming to upgrade their rotation with at least one frontline name.  The long list of names linked to the Friars includes Dallas Keuchel, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, and probably a couple dozen more we haven’t yet heard about.  With the game’s deepest minor league system, the Padres can be a player in any trade negotiation, though the club is reportedly unwilling to deal any of its very top prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias), which could be a setback in trying to land a true ace-level starter.

Phillies (Shortstop, -1.7 bWAR): Philadelphia addressed this position in decisive fashion, landing Jean Segura in a major five-player trade with the Mariners.  The chain reaction of the trade also improved the team at another position, as Rhys Hoskins’ dreadful left field glove balanced out his strong offense, leaving the Phillies with just 0.1 bWAR from its left fielders in 2018.  Hoskins’ move to first base is a big help in that respect, and the signing of Andrew McCutchen also provides a notable boost in right field, where the Phillies had more sub-replacement level production (-1.0 bWAR).  More could still be on the way for the Phillies, who have also been interested in several top pitchers and relievers, plus (of course) Harper and Manny Machado.

Pirates (Shortstop, -0.7 bWAR): Given how little the Bucs got out of the position last season, the team was willing to let longtime shortstop Jordy Mercer depart in free agency.  Prospect Kevin Newman is penciled in for more playing time in 2019 and Erik Gonzalez was also acquired as a more general utility infield option, though Pittsburgh has also been looking around at other veteran shortstop options.  The Pirates are another team that has scouted Tulowitzki, plus the Bucs have also been rumored to have interest in free agent Freddy Galvis and the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed.

Reds (Center field, 0.3 bWAR): The outfield as a whole didn’t produce much for the Reds last season, with just 0.5 bWAR at each corner spot to go along with the lack of production in center field.  As we enter 2019, however, Cincinnati could very have an entirely different starting outfield come Opening Day.  The newly-acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp will be sharing time with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker in right field and left field, while Schebler is currently atop the center field depth chart after Billy Hamilton was non-tendered.  The Reds have been busy this winter but have yet to really expand payroll as promised, so the team still has room to make a big splash in center field — maybe even in the form of A.J. Pollock, as the Reds reportedly have interest in the free agent.  On the trade front, the Reds have also asked the Braves about Ender Inciarte.

Rockies (First base, -0.8 bWAR): After showing interest in a wide array of available first baseman, the Rockies landed their much-needed big bat by signing Daniel Murphy to a two-year deal that contains a mutual option for the 2021 season.  Murphy didn’t play until June 12 due to a recovery from microfracture knee surgery, and after an understandable slow start to get his timing back, he hit .328/.366/.508 over his final 273 plate appearances of the 2018 season.  Now that he’ll be playing in Coors Field and will have an easier defensive assignment as a first baseman rather than at second base, it’s easy to imagine Murphy thriving in Colorado’s lineup.  Of further note, the Rockies were probably the league’s most top-heavy team last season, reaching the NLDS thanks to giant contributions from Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and the starting rotation and relatively little else around the diamond.  The Rox also received a negative-bWAR score at catcher (-0.3), as well as a cumulative 0.8 bWAR from their entire outfield.  Little has been done to address these areas yet this winter, go GM Jeff Bridich and his front office certainly still have some work to do before Opening Day.

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