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The Offseason’s Best Minor League Signings (So Far)

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The final two top-tier free agents are finally off the board — it only took until June! — but most clubs have long since begun to reap the benefits of their offseason additions from the open market. That includes those who partook in the annual grab bag of minor league contracts.

Each year, there are dozens upon dozens of recognizable names who settle for non-guaranteed pacts — perhaps more in this past winter’s frigid free-agent climate — and while most fail to yield dividends, there’s always a handful of gems unearthed. The Rangers, Reds and Pirates did particularly well in terms of signing players on minor league contracts this offseason, but there have certainly been other deals of note. It’ll merit revisiting this bunch after the season is over to see who maintained their pace and who stepped up in the final two thirds of the 2019 campaign, but to this point in the year, here’s a look at the most productive minor league signees of the winter.

Rangers: Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Danny Santana

Hunter Pence | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Much was made of Hunter Pence’s efforts to revamp his swing while playing winter ball in the offseason. Frankly, it’s not uncommon to hear of veteran players perhaps in the twilight of their career making alterations in an effort to stick around a bit longer. What is uncommon is for the results to be this eye-opening.

Pence hasn’t simply bounced back from a pair of awful seasons to close out his Giants tenure — he’s given the Rangers one of the best offensive performances of his 13-year Major League career. The 36-year-old has posted a resplendent .288/.341/.583 batting line with a dozen home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 179 plate appearances. His 47.6 percent hard contact rate lands in the 91st percentile of big league hitters, per Statcast, and his average exit velocity of 92.6 mph is in the 96th percentile. Defensive metrics are down on Pence, which isn’t a huge surprise for a 36-year-old corner outfielder, but he’s hitting at a star level without benefiting from a gaudy BABIP (.299). If he can maintain this pace, he’ll have no trouble landing not just a 40-man roster spot this winter — but a solid salary to go along with it.

Pence alone would make for a terrific minor league add, but the Rangers are also getting the best form of Logan Forsythe we’ve ever seen (.299/.404/.472 through 172 PAs) and a strong showing from Danny Santana (.291/.333/.465 in 139 PAs). Those performances are a bit more dubious, as the pair improbably sports matching .388 averages on balls in play. But, Forsythe is walking at a 14 percent clip that he’s never previously approached outside of a 2017 season in Los Angeles where he logged ample time hitting eighth in front of the pitcher (with a 21 percent walk rate in such plate appearances). Santana can’t boast that same plate discipline — to the contrary, his longstanding inability to draw a walk is as pronounced as ever — but he’s making hard contact more than ever before while also stealing bases with great efficiency (7-for-8). Both Forsythe and Santana can move all over the diamond as well.

Reds: Derek Dietrich, Jose Iglesias

Derek Dietrich | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati has gotten even more production out of its minor league deals than Texas, although the two player the Reds landed on non-guaranteed contracts both came as a surprise. Even after Dietrich was effectively non-tendered by the Marlins, he was expected to get a big league deal. Iglesias enjoyed a solid season at the plate and has long been regarded as a stellar defender at shortstop. The Tigers jumped on a one-year deal with Jordy Mercer worth $5MM in early December, seemingly believing Iglesias would command more.

That neither player found his asking price met by the time mid-February rolled around has been nothing short of a godsend for the Reds, who scooped up both on minor league pacts. Cincinnati couldn’t have known that a spring injury to Scooter Gennett would create even more at-bats for this pair early in the season, but Dietrich and Iglesias have each been sensational in capitalizing on the opportunity for unexpected levels of playing time.

Dietrich has already pounded a career-high 17 home runs despite accruing only 157 plate appearances. Detractors will point to his new hitter-friendly home park, but Dietrich has a .377 on-base percentage, .541 slugging percentage and six home runs on the road this year. Besides, it’s not as if every member of the Reds has belted 17 home runs simply by virtue of playing games at Great American Ball Park. Dietrich has a career-best 9.4 percent walk rate and career-low 20.4 percent strikeout rate as well.

Iglesias, meanwhile, has batted .294/.335/.421 with four homers and a characteristically low strikeout rate (13.5 percent) in 2019 plate appearances. He’s already tallied seven Defensive Runs Saved with a +3.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in 477 innings at shortstop, making Detroit’s decision to move on from look all the more egregious, considering they went out and signed a different veteran to man the position anyhow. He’s not running like he did in 2018, but Iglesias has been a flat-out steal.

Pirates: Melky Cabrera, Francisco Liriano

Cabrera has been forced into minor league deals in each of the past two offseasons and will turn 35 later this summer, but the Melk Man just keeps on hitting. Injuries to Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco and Lonnie Chisenhall created an opening for Cabrera, and he’s responded with a .335/.376/.467 line through 179 plate appearances. It’s true that he’s benefited from a .366 average on balls in play, but Cabrera’s 11.7 percent strikeout rate is excellent and represents a continuation of the elite bat-to-ball skills he’s demonstrated throughout his career. The defense isn’t pretty — it never really has been — but Cabrera’s bat has been a huge plus for the Bucs.

The Astros tried Liriano in the bullpen down the stretch in 2017 and weren’t able to get the results they’d hoped. Liriano returned to a starting role with the Tigers in 2018 and found middling results, but he’s been reborn in the Pittsburgh bullpen in his second go-around at PNC Park. In 29 1/3 innings, Liriano has a 1.21 ERA with 32 punchouts, 12 walks and a 47.3 percent grounder rate. He won’t maintain a 96 percent strand rate or a .233 BABIP, but Liriano’s 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate is the best of his career. Even if he takes what seems like an inevitable step back, FIP pegs him at 3.08 while SIERA checks in at 3.82. While the game’s highest-paid free-agent relievers have largely flopped, Liriano looks every bit the part of a viable bullpen option.

Others of Note

There have been successful minor league signings outside of Arlington, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, of course. Eric Sogard, he of the former #FaceOfMLB and #NerdPower hashtag fame, has been a superlative pickup for the Blue Jays, hitting at a .290/.365/.481 pace with a career-high five homers in just 151 plate appearances. With several injuries and poor performances around the Toronto infield, his presence has been a boon to an otherwise disappointing lineup.

Sogard’s former teammate and fellow Oakland cult hero, Stephen Vogt, thought his career could be over at this time a year ago. Instead, he’s back in the Majors and enjoying a solid showing at the plate with the Giants. In 66 plate appearances, Vogt has hit .250/.318/.417, and Buster Posey’s recent placement on the injured list will only create more opportunity for playing time. The Giants cycled through an all-you-can-sign buffet of veteran catchers earlier this spring, and Vogt is the last man standing.

As far as other catchers go, Matt Wieters landed the role of baseball’s most seldom-used backup: the Cardinals’ second option to iron man Yadier Molina. Wieters has just 50 plate appearances on the year through June 6, but he’s going to see an uptick in playing time with Molina on the injured list for a bit. In his 50 trips to the dish, Wieters has connected with three long balls and slashed a very solid .277/.300/.511. His 15 strikeouts against just one walk could very well be a portent for struggles to come, but some more frequent playing time could also help the veteran find his rhythm.

Speaking of players who’ve succeeded in minimal playing time, right-hander Mike Morin has given the Twins 10 1/3 innings of terrific relief since having his contract selected in early May. He’s punched out seven hitters, hasn’t allowed a walk, is sitting on a career-high 56.7 percent ground-ball rate and has limited opponents to just one run (a solo home run). He’ll need to miss more bats, as he’s not going to maintain a .172 BABIP and will eventually walk a batter, but Morin’s newfound knack for keeping the ball on the ground is encouraging. (For those wondering where Ryne Harper is, he was technically signed in the 2017-18 offseason and is in his second year with the organization.)

In a similarly small sample of work — four games, 20 1/3 innings — left-hander Tommy Milone has given the Mariners some competitive starts to help out in their beleaguered rotation. Milone is sitting on a 3.10 ERA and 3.84 FIP, and while he’s never been one to miss bats in the past, he’s punched out 20 hitters against only five walks. His velocity hasn’t changed, but Milone is throwing more sliders at the expense of his four-seamer and changeup.

Over in Atlanta, the Braves have enjoyed their own bullpen find, as Josh Tomlin has pitched a team-high 32 innings of relief. Tomlin’s 3.94 ERA doesn’t exactly stand out, and fielding-independent metrics all suggest a mid-4.00s mark is more realistic, but he’s been a relief workhorse for a team whose rotation and bullpen have struggled mightily for much of the year. The 32 innings Tomlin has already soaked up have been vital for the Braves.

Elsewhere in the NL East, former Pirates and Blue Jays prospect Harold Ramirez is doing his best to continue earning playing time with the Marlins. He’s hit .329/.368/.427 through 87 plate appearances, and while that line has been buoyed by a .394 average on balls in play, Ramirez is making solid contact and isn’t striking out much. He batted .320/.365/.471 in 120 games with Toronto’s Double-A affiliate last season and .355/.408/.591 in 31 Triple-A games with the Marlins in 2019, so he’s earned a look at the game’s top level.

Progress Report: Last Winter’s 6 Highest-Paid Relievers

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The Cubs made a rare June free-agent splash Wednesday when they agreed to a three-year, $43MM contract with potential Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel. The 31-year-old entered the offseason as the premier reliever available, but interest in Kimbrel was surprisingly tepid and he wound up having to wait seven months for a contract. Kimbrel still hauled in the richest deal of any reliever going back to the opening of free agency last offseason, though that doesn’t make him a lock to thrive as a Cub.

As you’ll see below, all six accomplished relievers who collected at least $20MM over the winter have shown some troubling signs a couple months into the 2019 campaign. Although it’s way too early to pass judgment in any of these cases, it doesn’t augur well when a player’s not performing as expected at the start of his deal. After all, that’s when he’s supposed to be providing his team maximum value.

Zack Britton, LHP, Yankees (three years, $39MM):

Arguably the game’s foremost reliever with the Orioles from 2014-16, injuries helped lead to a bit of a drop-off for Britton over the ensuing two seasons with the O’s and Yankees. That didn’t stop New York from re-signing Britton on the costliest pact any reliever received in the offseason, though, and he has handed them solid results in Year 1 of the contract. The 31-year-old owns a 2.96 ERA/3.60 FIP in 27 1/3 innings thus far. The sinker-throwing Britton’s tremendous groundball rate (75 percent) is right in line with his recent totals, and he’s generating more strikeouts and issuing fewer walks than he did a year ago. On the negative side, the home run woes that began plaguing Britton in 2018 have stuck around. He’s yielding HRs on 25 percent of fly balls for the second straight season.

Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (three years, $30MM):

Familia surrendered three earned runs in 2/3 of an inning last Saturday and then sat for almost a week before taking the mound again Thursday. The previously reliable righty, who dealt with shoulder troubles earlier in the season, has now logged a horrid 6.29 ERA/5.26 FIP in 23 1/3 frames. A significant drop in strikeouts and swinging strikes and a sizable spike in walks and homers haven’t helped, though Familia’s inducing plenty of grounders and continuing to throw in the 96 mph range. The 29-year-old’s batting average on balls in play against (.338), strand rate (66.2), and enormous gap between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.383/.321) indicate he has deserved better. However, it’s doubtful any of that is of much consolation to him or the Mets at this point.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals (two years, $25MM):

While Miller was a dominant force with the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees and Indians from 2012-17, he endured an injury-limited, down year with the Tribe in ’18 and still hasn’t returned to form. The towering southpaw has given the Cardinals 20 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/5.48 FIP since scoring his contract. Miller is striking out upward of 12 hitters per nine, but he’s walking more than four at the same time (remember, his BB/9 was barely over 1.00 as recently as 2016). The 34-year-old has also already yielded almost as many HRs (five) as he did in 2017-18 combined (six). The good news is that Miller has allowed a mere two earned runs since April 27.

Adam Ottavino, RHP, Yankees (three years, $25MM):

Ottavino’s preventing runs at an elite clip through 28 1/3 frames as a Yankee, having posted a 1.27 ERA so far. However, there are some red flags with the ex-Rockie’s performance. Ottavino’s strikeout, swinging-strike, walk, chase and contact rates have gone in discouraging directions since last season, while his 96.4 percent strand rate isn’t going to hold. There’s not a huge difference between the wOBA (.264) and xwOBA (.276) hitters have mustered against the slider-reliant 33-year-old this season, but both numbers fall short of Ottavino’s .231/.233 combo from 2018.

Joe Kelly, RHP, Dodgers (three years, $25MM):

The flamethrowing Kelly has allowed at least two earned runs in five of 20 appearances, giving him an unsightly 7.91 ERA/5.18 FIP across 19 1/3 innings this season. Kelly’s walks and grounders have trended well thus far, but he has already allowed as many home runs (four) as he did last season – his final year with the Red Sox. The 30-year-old has also seen his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 3 percent and his contact rate climb by a hefty 8 percent since 2018.

David Robertson, RHP, Phillies (two years, $23MM):

Robertson entered 2019 as one of the best, most durable relievers in recent memory, yet he has been neither effective nor healthy in the first season of his contract. The 34-year-old coughed up four earned runs on eight hits and six walks (against six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings before going to the 10-day injured list April 16 with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Robertson moved to the 60-day IL on May 25, meaning he won’t return until at least midway through this month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: The Braves & Dallas Keuchel

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The Braves are reportedly in the driver’s seat to land free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who they hope would provide a significant in-season boost to a so-so rotation. Aside from Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran, no one in Atlanta’s starting five has performed all that well this year. Even Fried’s bubble has burst to some degree since a tremendous start to the season, while Teheran’s peripherals provide far less hope than his sterling 3.28 ERA.

Beyond Soroka, Fried and Teheran, 2018 summer acquisition Kevin Gausman, ’18 standout Mike Foltynewicz, and youngsters Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson are the only other Braves who have made starts this season. Gausman has long been a credible starter, but he has pitched to a hideous 6.15 ERA (albeit with a much rosier 4.03 FIP); Foltynewicz’s 6.10 ERA actually sits well ahead of his awful 6.68 FIP; and Newcomb and Toussaint are now functioning as relievers, serving as two of the most reliable options in an Atlanta bullpen that has endured no shortage of down moments in 2019.

Considering the difficulties of their pitching staff this year, it’s no surprise the Braves are pursuing Keuchel. The latest reports indicate the Braves could reel in Keuchel on a multiyear deal. Earlier this week, though, there were rumblings indicating the Braves weren’t keen on paying Keuchel the prorated portion of the $17.5MM qualifying offer ($11MM-plus) that he rejected at the outset of the offseason. Potential price aside, the Braves will have to ask themselves a.) how long it’ll take for Keuchel to get ready and b.) how effective he’ll be after sitting out several months.

Former Braves/Padres/Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel just agreed to terms with the Cubs on Wednesday after a long free-agent trip of his own, and it’s likely he’ll be prepared to join Chicago within the next couple weeks. A similar time frame may be in the cards for Keuchel, who has been throwing sim games of at least 95 pitches in recent weeks as he waits for his next opportunity.

As for his on-field performance, Keuchel has generally been excellent since he broke out in 2014 – the year before he won his lone AL Cy Young Award. However, the longtime Astro did see his strikeout, groundball and run prevention numbers drop off to certain degrees in 2018. Having totaled fewer than seven strikeouts per nine a year ago, it’s fair to guess the quality of defense behind Keuchel will play a key role in his ability to stymie opposing offenses this season. With that in mind, it’s important to note the Braves’ defense has been one of the one of the worst in the majors on grounders in 2019.

Defensive concerns aside, it’s worth pointing out signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves money. As everyone who has paid close attention to his free-agent journey knows, inking Keuchel before June 2 would have meant surrendering both draft compensation and cash. Nevertheless, if you’re a Braves fan, perhaps you’d rather see them give up talent from their farm system in a trade for a starter (Madison Bumgarner? Marcus Stroman?) than sign Keuchel. The reigning NL East champion Braves are two games out of their division lead right now, so they may have to get this decision right if they’re going to overtake the first-place Phillies.

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Braves do?
Sign Keuchel 77.47% (3,907 votes)
Make a trade instead 22.53% (1,136 votes)
Total Votes: 5,043

Looking For A Match In A Marcus Stroman Trade

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Even with Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner factored in, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman may end up as the most valuable starter on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. Like Bumgarner, Stroman has established himself as a legitimate major league starter. But while Bumgarner’s set to become a free agent after the season, the 28-year-old Stroman’s under wraps through 2020. Furthermore, on a $6.3MM salary this season and a to-be-determined arbitration salary next year, Stroman doesn’t come at a prohibitive price tag.

Since he debuted in 2014 with the Jays, who selected him 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, Stroman has pitched to a 3.80 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.23 K/9 and 2.57 BB/9 in 127 appearances (121 starts) and 741 innings. Those numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but Stroman’s a two-time 200-inning pitcher whose groundball percentage (59.8) ranks second among starters over the course of his career. And Stroman’s now amid a season in which he has recorded a terrific 2.84 ERA/3.48 FIP with 6.99 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 58.1 percent grounder mark across 13 starts and 76 frames.

The fact that Stroman’s on pace for another 200-inning season is key considering he amassed a mere 102 1/3 during an injury-shortened 2018. Stroman’s also just a few years removed from missing nearly all of 2015 with a torn ACL in his left knee, but the good news is that he hasn’t battled any significant arm problems in his time in the bigs.

With Toronto near the bottom of the league right now and unlikely to contend in 2020, Stroman stands out as its most logical trade chip. Stroman’s time up north may conclude this summer as a result. With that being the case, we’ll take a look at a slew of potential suitors (listed alphabetically). Based on the latest farm system rankings from Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, some of these teams are in better position than others to win a possible Stroman sweepstakes…

  • Angels: The 2020 Angels should get back injured starter Shohei Ohtani, who’d be a massive upgrade over what they have now, but they can’t count on him to eat up a lot of innings in his return from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney haven’t been the most durable starters either, and Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez and Jaime Barria are largely unproven in the majors. Based on all of that, Stroman would fit in the Angels’ starting staff next year. He’d also aid in their push for a playoff spot this season.
  • Athletics: Injuries have sapped the Athletics of starters dating back to last year, but they still made the playoffs in 2018 and are within striking distance of wild-card position at the moment. The A’s are scheduled to get some rotation reinforcements back in the coming months, which could dampen interest in Stroman, though he’d likely better their postseason chances this year while taking care of one-fifth of their starting staff for 2020. By then, free agents-to-be Brett Anderson and Marco Estrada could be out of the organization.
  • Astros: Despite its resounding success in the standings, Houston hasn’t been able to find a capable fifth starter to slot in with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock this year. Looking forward to 2020, Cole, Miley and Collin McHugh could leave in free agency. Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from 2018 Tommy John surgery by then, but there would still be a place for Stroman.
  • Braves: The good news is that the Braves aren’t at risk of losing any starters in free agency during the winter. The bad news is that their current starting mix hasn’t been all that effective outside of Mike Soroka. Even Max Fried, who burst out of the gates this year, has come to Earth of late. It’s no wonder they’re going after free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel. Signing him may make a Stroman trade unnecessary in the estimation of Atlanta’s front office.
  • Brewers: Even though their rotation has been less than stellar this year, the reigning NL Central champion Brewers have a realistic shot to win their division again. Stroman would help Milwaukee’s cause for this season, and he’d take care of a rotation spot for the small-market club in 2020.
  • Cardinals: The Redbirds’ rotation has been a disappointment this year, which explains their interest in Keuchel. Let’s say the Cards do land Keuchel on a multiyear contract. Their rotation still wouldn’t be set for this year or next season. No one from their starting quintet has been particularly good this season, and Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha are each set to become free agents.
  • Cubs: Chicago wouldn’t be in the driver’s seat to acquire Stroman this summer because there’s no clear opening in its rotation right now. Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish are either locks or strong bets to retain their spots. But the Cubs may need to replace Hamels, an impending by free agent, by 2020. Stroman would offer comparable production for a much lower price. That’s important for the luxury tax-minded Cubs.
  • Diamondbacks: Considering they probably won’t make the playoffs, it’s up in the air whether the Diamondbacks will buy this summer; if they do, though, a Stroman acquisition would make sense going into next year. He’d occupy a place in an impressive-looking 2020 staff with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and, if they return to health, Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker. Otherwise, Merrill Kelly could continue in place of Weaver or Walker.
  • Dodgers: Considering the Dodgers are oozing with quality starters, don’t count on a Stroman acquisition. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill could leave as free agents thereafter, though, so let’s not fully rule out LA.
  • Mets: Team management has stuck by much-maligned fifth starter Jason Vargas, who has been outstanding of late, so it may not feel the need to part with prospects for Stroman or any other rotation piece. Starting depth is lacking in New York right now, however, and both Vargas and Zack Wheeler might be gone by next season.
  • Nationals: Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin are guaranteed to return in 2019, which locks in an elite one-two punch. And Stephen Strasburg will probably be back, though there’s a chance he’ll opt out of his contract. Even if Strasburg sticks around, there would be room for Stroman now and next season to slot in ahead of Anibal Sanchez at the back of the Nats’ rotation.
  • Phillies: If the Phillies are going to maintain their lead in the NL East this season, they’ll likely need more from their starting staff. Aaron Nola hasn’t followed up on his exemplary 2018 performance, Jake Arrieta’s not what he used to be, and nobody from the Zach Eflin–Nick Pivetta–Jerad Eickhoff trio inspires a ton of confidence.
  • Pirates: The Buccos have been active in the trade market for starters in recent years, evidenced by their Cole deal with the Astros and their acquisition of Chris Archer from the Rays. The low-budget team was able to swing a trade for Archer because of his affordability. Stroman would give the Pirates another reasonably priced option next year along with Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and perhaps Mitch Keller. However, whether it would be logical for a middling Pittsburgh team to rob from its farm system for just over a year of control over Stroman is highly debatable.
  • Rangers: As noted on Wednesday, the wild-card contending Rangers are getting by with a relatively untrustworthy rotation this season. Even if Texas isn’t a real contender at the moment, it’ll aim for a playoff berth in 2020. Stroman would contribute to its cause.
  • Rays: No one would accuse opener-loving Tampa Bay of having enough traditional starters, and even the low-budget Rays would likely be able to afford Stroman. If everyone’s healthy, a rotation led by Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Stroman could be a force.
  • Reds: Although Cincinnati can probably forget about a playoff spot for this year, Stroman would help replace impending free agents Tanner Roark and Alex Wood (who hasn’t even pitched this season) in 2020. That said, Stroman to Cincy seems like a long shot because playoff-caliber teams need him more right now and would likely outbid the Reds.
  • Red Sox: Boston’s rotation hasn’t been great in 2019, nor is its starting five etched in stone for next year. Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez will return, but Rick Porcello’s slated to reach free agency.
  • Rockies: Colorado’s rotation has taken enormous steps backward since 2018, thanks in part to former Cy Young contender’s Kyle Freeland’s fall from grace. Even if the Rox expect the demoted Freeland to rebound by next year, there would still be a place for Stroman in their rotation. As of now, German Marquez and Jon Gray look like the only sure bets for 2020.
  • Padres: Not only has San Diego been connected to Stroman on the rumor mill dating back to the winter, but its rotation certainly hasn’t been flawless since then. Considering those factors, the Padres may be the favorites to acquire Stroman.
  • Twins: Minnesota has sprinted to one of the league’s best records this year thanks in part to righties Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, but they’re headed toward free agency in the offseason. Stroman would replace one of them in 2020; in the meantime, he’d give the Twins another legit starter alongside Odorizzi, Gibson, Jose Berrios and Martin Perez. Michael Pineda hasn’t really answered the bell in his return from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet another Twins starter who’s not under control beyond this season.
  • White Sox: At 29-32, Chicago has been a surprisingly respectable team relative to expectations. The franchise’s long-running playoff drought’s still likely to continue, though it may push for contention next year. Enter Stroman? He’d offer a nice complement to Lucas Giolito, which has been sorely lacking this season. Free agent-to-be Ivan Nova may not return in 2020, while Reynaldo Lopez has failed to build on a promising 2018. Other than that, the White Sox are waiting for Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech to recover from Tommy John surgery and for high-end prospect Dylan Cease to work his way to the majors.
  • Yankees: New York could use an upgrade in its rotation now, which Stroman might be able to provide, and its starting five may not be set for next year. Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Domingo German are on track to return. On paper, that’s enough, but it would require general manager Brian Cashman to regard Happ and German as locks for 2020. Meanwhile, the retiring CC Sabathia won’t be back.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Replacing Andrew McCutchen

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The Phillies are in first place in the NL East. So far, so good. But the club is looking ahead at some rather significant road blocks.

Most notably, the Philadelphia outfield mix just took a big hit. Andrew McCutchen is done for the year. The less-hyped and less-expensive of the team’s two major free agent splashes, Cutch had also outperformed Bryce Harper to this point.

Let’s not forget: the Phillies aren’t just replacing McCutchen. They may also be in need of a player to step in for Odubel Herrera, whose future with the organization is in doubt after his recent arrest for alleged domestic violence. Aaron Altherr was already sent out after a rough start. Nick Williams has struggled mightily. Roman Quinn is again injured, while Dylan Cozens is sidelined for the season. Scott Kingery is showing well, but he’s an infielder by trade and is needed there with Maikel Franco struggling. Recently, Kingery taken over the majority of the workload at third base.

The Phillies, as one would expect from a first-place club in a tightly contested division, have acted quickly since losing Herrera and McCutchen. Jay Bruce was brought in and now figures to line in left field on a regular basis. Bruce just ripped his third home run in as many games since landing in Philadelphia, so he’s off to a good start. But he’ll also likely be pressed into a much more substantial role than had been envisioned.

Philadelphia also promoted prospect Adam Haseley, the eighth overall pick in 2017, and he’ll step into center field for the time being. Haseley had only been in Triple-A for a week when he was summoned to the Majors, though, and he’s not regarded as a premium prospect despite that draft pedigree. He’s a a logical first option, and perhaps he’ll surprise to the extent that the Phils don’t need to make a splashy trade, but there’s still a definite chance that the sudden outfield deficiency will be addressed by acquiring someone from outside the organization.

What the Phillies could really use in place of McCutchen is a true center fielder. McCutchen hasn’t been that in several years but was playing there in place of Herrera — who turned in shaky defensive ratings in center himself in 2018-19. Unfortunately, that’ll be considerably more difficult to come by for GM Matt Klentak.

The most readily available players are of dubious quality, unsurprisingly. Kevin Pillar could surely be had from the Giants, but a player sporting a .249 OBP on the season isn’t going to be viewed as an upgrade. It’s a similar story with Billy Hamilton in Kansas City and Juan Lagares in New York. The Padres have a well-known glut of outfielders, most of who are limited to corner duties as well. Perhaps the Phillies could try to buy low on one-time top prospect Manuel Margot, but he’s sporting a .262 OBP and has lost playing time to makeshift center fielder Wil Myers. Myers himself would figure to be eminently available, but he’s still owed $61MM beyond the 2019 campaign and wouldn’t be a quality defensive option. Buy-low options abound throughout the league. Beyond the aforementioned Pillar, the Phillies could acquire Leonys Martin on the cheap in hope of a return to form. The Orioles only just acquired Keon Broxton themselves, but the Phils could try to take a shot on him.

The best of this class of player may be Jarrod Dyson. Perhaps the D-Backs will be willing to ship him elsewhere later this summer. He’s a career-long platoon bat with minimal power but would at least give the Phils dynamic glovework and competitive at-bats against right-handed pitching. But the team would still arguably be down a righty outfield bat.

Adding a higher-end piece in center would surely be costly, though it’s worth exploring since it’s a long-term need for the organization. The Phils could try to pry Ketel Marte away from Arizona, but the asking price would be substantial. The versatile switch-hitter has taken well to center field and is also capable of playing all over the infield; he’s also controllable all the way through 2024 for a total of about $35MM. Starling Marte isn’t off to his finest start, but the cross-state rival Pirates likely won’t reduce their asking price. Perhaps there’s some room for a deal — the Pittsburgh org may soon have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and may not hang in the divisional race, while Marte is getting more expensive — but it’s a low-likelihood scenario.

It is intriguing to think of potential matches with the Mariners. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto rarely rests long between brokering deals and obviously has a connection with Klentak. (Not long before the Bruce swap, they pulled off a much more significant deal.) The Mariners resisted the temptation to move building-block Mitch Haniger in the offseason. He’s mostly a corner piece and hasn’t graded well in limited MLB action up the middle, but did spend a lot of time there in the minors and might be expected to perform well enough in that role for a season or two. Mallex Smith would be a true center field option, but he’s still trying to bounce back from a rough start. The Mariners acquired him as a hopeful long-term piece in an offseason swap and won’t be particularly keen to sell low.

One potentially interesting possibility would involve Whit Merrifield of the Royals. He’s known mostly as a second baseman, of course, but has been utilized more and more on the grass and has graded well in his limited time in center. If the Royals really are willing to listen, the Phillies ought to in the ear of K.C. GM Dayton Moore. Merrifield could plug into the center field opening now and be utilized in any number of different ways in the future. He’s an exceptional value, which will be reflected in the asking price.

The options could still expand in the coming months, though it’s honestly tough to foresee other viable center field targets. What are the other possibilities?

A major corner outfield acquisition just may not make a ton of sense for the Phils, who have Bruce and Harper in that role now and will welcome back McCutchen next season. Skipper Gabe Kapler already said he doesn’t plan to use Harper in center. While the right acquisition could perhaps change that line of thinking, that’s probably not the preferred route for GM Matt Klentak and the remainder of the front office.

That said, perhaps the Phillies can instead add one of the Dyson-type platoon pieces and also pursue a corner-oriented bat to boost their offensive productivity. The team could hold its nose at times on defense — as it was doing already with Cutch in center — and plan on deploying different personnel based upon the situation.

There ought to be quite a few corner pieces on the market. In addition to some of the names already covered, some of the aforementioned teams have other conceivable trade assets. Adam Jones at least has ample experience in center, even if he’s ill-suited to regular time there at this stage. He and David Peralta could be put on the block by the Diamondbacks. Left-handed hitters Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, and Melky Cabrera may not fit on the same Pirates roster. (Polanco could also be utilized in center, as he frequently was in the minors, though he has rarely been tasked with that role in Pittsburgh.) Domingo Santana of the M’s has slowed after a hot start but could be of some interest. Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are among the many options in San Diego.

Loads of other players will also come up. Perhaps the Orioles’ Trey Mancini isn’t a sensible target since he’ll come with a high asking price and is limited to a corner spot. But there are other, more plausible candidates. Nicholas Castellanos is sure to be discussed quite a bit this summer by the Tigers. The Angels may end up dealing Kole Calhoun in his walk year if they can’t hang in contention; likewise, the Reds could end up dangling Yasiel Puig and/or Derek Dietrich. Veteran corner outfielder Alex Gordon could be of interest, though it’s far from clear whether he’ll be available given his no-trade rights and special relationship with the Royals. Shin-Soo Choo of the Rangers would be just the bat the Phils would like, though he’s a poor defender and would be tough to carry alongside Bruce.

There is also one other general route that the Phillies could explore. If they’re willing to trust Kingery with extended action up the middle, perhaps by pairing him with a part-timer of Dyson’s ilk, then the Phils could free the youngster for that role by adding an infielder. Whether or not they fully give up on Franco, the club might seek to add offense at the hot corner. Kingery’s importance to the Philadelphia organization was already apparent before McCutchen’s injury. His flexibility and potentially emerging bat now expand the universe of possibilities as the front office approaches an increasingly interesting summer trade period.

Franmil Reyes Is On An Unusual Pace

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Just 146 games into his major league career, Padres right fielder Franmil Reyes has established himself as one of baseball’s most intimidating power threats. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound Reyes smashed 16 home runs during his 285-plate appearance debut a year ago and has totaled the league’s fourth-most HRs (19) this season. The 23-year-old’s on pace for 50 homers in his first full season in the majors, but that alone isn’t the hardest-to-believe fact about his campaign to date.

With a .247/.294/.577 slash line through 211 plate appearances this season, the 23-year-old Reyes has chipped in a strong 122 wRC+ for the playoff-contending Padres. The lone massively underwhelming figure in Reyes’ line is his on-base percentage, which ties for 17th worst among 166 qualified MLB batters. It also helps set the stage for what could go down as a historic season for Reyes.

Based on research at FanGraphs going all the way back to 1871, no hitter has ever accumulated at least 40 home runs and reached base under 30 percent of the time in a season. Former Red Sox outfielder Tony Armas came the closest during a 1984 campaign in which he swatted 43 HRs and recorded an even .300 OBP in 679 PA. Thirty-five years later, Reyes may put forth a similarly powerful season with even less on-base ability.

Just over two months into the season, Reyes has recorded the game’s 26th-highest strikeout rate (27 percent). That’s not awful for someone with Reyes’ high-power skill set; on the other hand, his 6.6 walk percentage leaves plenty to be desired – especially for someone who’s not blessed with much speed. The fact that Reyes isn’t, say, Rhys Hoskins when it comes to drawing bases on balls has helped stop him from becoming a far bigger force at the plate. That aside, the right-handed Reyes has offered above-average production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, and he has registered solid numbers in his home park and elsewhere.

Reyes, who unsurprisingly elevates the ball more than most hitters, ranks 16th in the game in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (97.9 mph), per Statcast, which credits him with an even higher expected weighted on-base average (.390) than actual wOBA (.365). It also awards Reyes a respectable .283 expected batting average which, along with a paltry .244 BABIP, indicates he hasn’t encountered good batted-ball fortune in 2019. If that turns around at all, it’ll push Reyes’ OBP over the .300 barrier by season’s end and prevent him from making somewhat dubious history.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Can Avisail Garcia Continue To Out-Mash The Competition?

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Avisail Garcia is destroying much of what he’s being thrown by Major League pitchers. After striding to the plate 208 times, he has an even .300 batting average, 11 dingers, and a healthy 138 wRC+.  That’s awfully good value for the Rays, who paid him all of $3.5MM for one season of work.

There’s a reason they got Garcia for that amount: his substandard, injury-filled 2018 season, at the end of which he was non-tendered by the White Sox. It really didn’t come as a surprise when the South Siders cut bait and the Tampa Bay org picked up Garcia for less than half his projected arbitration salary.

The past is the past, so far as the Rays are concerned. What matters right now is that Garcia is seeing red and putting his contract in the black. But what happens when he returns to the open market this coming winter? We’ve still got a lot of plate appearances to watch, but what if he keeps up something like his current pace?

It isn’t as if he hasn’t done it before. Back in 2017, Garcia carried a .330/.380/.506 slash over 561 plate appearances — good for a 137 wRC+ that’s a near match for his current output. Then again, he leaned on a whopping .392 batting average on balls in play to reach that number, which plummeted back to .271 in the ensuing season while he tried to play through a hamstring injury. And he had posted underwhelming numbers previously. Garcia doesn’t stand out at all in terms of plate discipline, with roughly average strikeout numbers (despite huge swinging-strike rates) and slightly below-average walk rates for his career.

When he’s hot, he’s hot … not/not. Is that all there is to it? Should teams be wary of putting too much stock in his current upswing? Perhaps. The K/BB numbers are in line with his personal mean. There were some lean years in the past. Then again, it’s not as if there aren’t any changes worthy of attention in Garcia’s profile.

Statcast has picked up on quite a few interesting observations. Garcia is putting the barrel on the ball more than about nine in ten of his peers. He carries a healthy and career-best 46.5% hard-hit rate. His average exit velo is up to 91.4 mph after sitting just over 90 for the prior three seasons. Put it together, and Statcast actually thinks Garcia has been unlucky, crediting him with a .392 xwOBA that exceeds his .379 wOBA.

Garcia is doing things a bit differently than in the past. He’s putting the ball in the air more often than ever, with a launch angle that sits at 11.1 degrees after a third-straight year-over-year gain. His 1.24 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest of his career. (The leaguewide reduction in sinkers is likely playing a role, as Garcia is suddenly seeing half as many as he had before.) The flies are flying quite nicely, too. Just 2.0% are harmlessly dropping into infielders’ gloves, while 20+% are going over the outfield wall (about the same rate as they did for him last year).

There’s no question: Garcia is an increasingly interesting upcoming free agent asset. Garcia is enjoying a lofty .346 BABIP, but that’s not an outlandish number — particularly for a player who owns a .331 career mark. He’s even trending up defensively (+3 DRS, +3.4 UZR) and on the bases (six steals). With 1.6 fWAR in the bank, he’s on pace for a ~5 WAR campaign.

And we saved one of the best parts for last: Garcia hasn’t even turned 28 years of age. Okay, he’s just a week away from his birthday. Still, teams pondering a purchase this coming winter will get to plug a 28-year-old slugger onto their 2020 Opening Day roster.

What’s most interesting about Garcia’s free agent case is the presence of three other remarkably similar players: Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals, Yasiel Puig of the Reds, and Nicholas Castellanos of the Tigers. Their numbers obviously vary a bit, but over the past three seasons they have landed within a fairly narrow band.

All four are right-handed hitters with roughly league-average plate discipline (Ozuna and Puig are the best of the trio in K/BB) and good but not exceptional power (Garcia sits just under .200 ISO, the other three just over). Most carry high batting averages (excepting Puig, though he has done so in the past) and well-regarded corner outfield glovework (Castellanos is the exception, though he has graded as a palatable performer this year). They’re also all rather youthful free agents; Castellanos is the youngest, having just turned 27 in March, with Ozuna and Puig already past their 28th birthdays. All have had their ups and downs.

There’s more to consider than the past three seasons — Ozuna, in particular, has a much better and more consistent overall track record — but Garcia lines up rather well on a rate basis in that span. And he has handily outperformed the other three in the present season, with only Ozuna (121 wRC+) turning in above-average offensive output to this point.

In the latest iteration of MLBTR’s 2019-20 free agent power rankings, Ozuna placed third and Puig landed the tenth spot, while Castellanos drew an honorable mention. It’s plenty understandable that my wise and able boss, Tim Dierkes, mentioned those three while excluding Garcia. At that point, Garcia carried a decent but uninspiring stat line. But as the sample has grown, so has Garcia’s case to be considered among this group. Indeed, given Puig’s struggles at the plate this seasons and a tepid early showing from Castellanos — with league-average offense and marginal defense, he’s a full win behind Garcia — it’s possible Garcia will be the top challenger to Ozuna in this market class.

We’ll see how things shake out over the coming months, but Garcia’s reemergence helps to create an interesting dynamic. The broader free agent class is rather uninspiring, owing to a round of major extensions, but it’s interesting to see this foursome of youthful, rather analogous players entering free agency at the same time. Each will drive his own earning power on the field over the final two-thirds of the season, though the markets will surely intertwine. Garcia has a long way to go to securing a quality multi-year deal — in addition to producing, he’ll need to avoid further hamstring problems — but he has already done enough to this point to make that a realistic possibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Yankees Have Found Their First Baseman

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It has been almost a full year since the Yankees and Cardinals made what looked like a relatively minor trade at the time. On July 28, 2018, New York shipped relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis for first baseman Luke Voit and international bonus pool money. There was no apparent need for Voit for the Cardinals, who had Matt Carpenter at first base and Jose Martinez capable of playing the position, and there still isn’t now that Paul Goldschmidt’s a Redbird. On the other hand, Voit has been manna for the Yankees, whose first base production left a lot to be desired in the few years leading up to his arrival.

Aside from a resurgent 2015, injuries and age took their toll on Mark Teixeira in the final few seasons of his career. He retired after his production nosedived in 2016. Similarly, constant injury issues have derailed the career of Greg Bird, who was once Teixeira’s presumed heir apparent. The 26-year-old Bird’s inability to stay on the field helped coax the Yankees into taking a flier on Voit last season.

As just about everyone knows by now, Voit broke out as an absolute force after he first joined the Yankees. From his debut in pinstripes on Aug. 2 through the end of the year, Voit slashed .333/.405/.689 in 148 plate appearances and ranked second in the majors in isolated power (.356), third in wRC+ (194) and sixth in home runs (14). As you’d expect from those numbers, Voit packed a wallop.

Even in a lineup with the hard-hitting trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, Voit’s ability to inflict damage on the baseball was eye-opening. Voit placed first in the majors in barrel percentage and third in rate of balls hit 95 mph or more, per Statcast, which showed little difference between his second-ranked weighted on-base average (.447) and his first-place expected wOBA (.438).

Although Voit was nothing short of marvelous in 2018, his unexpected brilliance still came over a small sample of at-bats. There was skepticism leading into this season as a result. When I asked MLBTR readers in February to predict Voit’s 2019 OPS, most voters forecast a noticeable decline in comparison to what he did a year ago.

To some degree, those who expected Voit to come up well short of what he offered last season have been right. Good fortune played a part in his stunning output, after all. It would have been almost impossible for a slow runner like Voit to replicate last year’s .365 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, he’s down to .302 in that category as of this writing. Likewise, nearly 41 percent of his fly balls weren’t going to continue leaving the yard. They haven’t – he’s at just under 27 percent as he approaches the 60-game mark in 2019. Thanks in part to that drop, his ISO has plummeted to a still-effective .251. Furthermore, the right-handed Voit has shown a bit of vulnerability against left-handed hurlers – whom he crushed last year – while producing far less than he did in 2018 against breaking pitches in general.

Clearly, some of Voit’s marks have come to Earth this season. And yet, the 28-year-old has continued to serve as a legit offensive presence in his first full season in the Bronx. The production is hard to argue with – Voit has amassed 256 PA and hit .270/.383/.521 with 15 long balls, putting him on pace for 34, and the game’s 28th-ranked wRC+ (140). It helps that he has upped his walks by almost 3 percent while cutting strikeouts by exactly 3 percent. He’s also in baseball’s 93rd percentile or higher in both xwOBA and expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Voit’s .399 xwOBA outdoes an already imposing wOBA (.385), while his xSLG (.566) has a 45-point lead over his real slugging percentage (.521).

Thanks in part to Voit’s production, the Yankees’ lineup has weathered an early maelstrom of injuries – including to Judge and Stanton, among several others – en route to a 38-20 record. With that in mind, it’s getting harder to regard Voit as anything other than a major threat at the plate. He can’t flash the leather at first the way Teixeira could, but Voit looks like his real successor at the position. Not bad for someone who was a little-known minor leaguer with the Cardinals at this time in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Possibility

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It has now been 10 years since the Nationals used the first pick in the 2009 draft on right-hander Stephen Strasburg, whose major league debut a season later came with great fanfare. Strasburg drew comparisons to Hall of Fame hurlers leading up to his initial start June 8, 2010, and he didn’t disappoint that night. The flamethrowing 21-year-old introduced himself by fanning 14 Pirates and walking none in a seven-inning, two-run performance, leading to hope such outings would become the norm and he’d emerge as a perennial Cy Young contender. Nine years later, Strasburg’s trophy case is devoid of a Cy Young, but that doesn’t mean he has been a letdown in D.C.

There have been rocky moments in Strasburg’s career, including injury woes (he underwent Tommy John surgery late in his rookie season, to name one example) and the Nationals’ infamous decision to shut him down amid a pennant race in 2012. The Nationals didn’t take home a World Series without Strasburg that fall – nor have they even won a playoff series with him on their roster, if you can believe it. Still, the Nats can’t complain over what Strasburg has given them dating back to his electrifying introduction.

If a pitcher’s record matters to you, Strasburg has won 99 of 154 decisions en route to a .643 winning percentage. More importantly, Strasburg has notched a 3.14 ERA/2.90 FIP with 10.6 K/9 against 2.35 BB/9 in 218 starts and 1,308 2/3 innings, and his lifetime 33.1 fWAR ranks 11th among starters since 2010.

As good as Strasburg has been, he has taken a backseat in Washington to the even better Max Scherzer since the latter joined the franchise in 2015. Scherzer is perhaps what many thought Strasburg would become – a dominant workhorse with three Cy Youngs to his name. But while Scherzer may be the gold standard among current pitchers, Strasburg hasn’t been miles behind him in 2019. Durability hasn’t been a problem this season for the soon-to-be 31-year-old Strasburg, who entered Tuesday averaging almost seven frames per start across 12 tries and ranking sixth in innings (79). At the same time, Strasburg boasts the majors’ ninth-best strikeout rate (11.16 per nine), 13th-highest K/BB ratio (4.9) and 22nd-ranked groundball percentage (48.9) – all of which has helped lead to a 3.19 ERA/2.68 FIP.

Strasburg doesn’t bring the same type of velocity he used to, evidenced by the sub-94 mph average on his fastball, but it hasn’t mattered. His four-seamer and sinker have been among the game’s premier fastballs this year, per FanGraphs, which assigns even higher marks to his curveball. Strasburg has been much more reliant on his sinker and curve than ever this season, while he has all but scrapped his slider. Hitters have posted a pitiful .251 weighted on-base average/.240 xwOBA against Strasburg’s four-pitch mix (he also throws a changeup better than 18 percent of the time), making him one of the majors’ most difficult starters to hit in 2019.

If Strasburg keeps this up over the next few months, he could have an important call to make once the season ends. By then, Strasburg will have a remaining four years and $100MM (some of which is deferred) on the seven-year, $175MM extension he signed with the Nationals in May 2016. However, Strasburg’s deal comes with an opt-out decision after both the 2019 and ’20 campaigns, meaning he could walk away from a guaranteed nine figures and take his chances on the open market this offseason. In doing so, Strasburg would likely fall behind only Astros righty Gerrit Cole on the pecking order of free-agent starters,

Strasburg would be taking an incredible risk in trying his hand at free agency, of course, though seeing a starter surpass the $100MM barrier at or over the age of 30 isn’t unheard of. Scherzer pulled it off as a 30-year-old when the Nationals gave him seven years and $215MM entering 2015. The Diamondbacks signed righty Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5MM guarantee on the cusp of his age-32 season, 2016. That same offseason, 30-year-old lefty David Price (Red Sox) and one of Strasburg’s former teammates, soon-to-be 30-year-old righty Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), scored paydays worth a combined $327MM. Righty Yu Darvish was just months away from his 32nd birthday when the Cubs inked him to a six-year, $126MM deal going into 2018. And one of Strasburg’s current rotation mates, soon-to-be 30-year-old lefty Patrick Corbin, put pen to paper on a six-year, $140MM pact this past winter.

Strasburg could look to Scherzer, Greinke, Price, Zimmermann, Darvish and Corbin for inspiration. However, he’d also have to consider other accomplished hurlers who haven’t gotten free agency to work for them in recent years. Righty Jake Arrieta had his sights set on a $100MM or even $200MM guarantee going into 2018, his age-32 season, but wound up getting three years and $75MM from the Phillies. Nowadays, as anyone who pays a sliver of attention to free-agent activity knows, 31-year-old southpaw Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been able to find a job seven months after hitting the market. Keuchel wanted nine figures when he ventured to free agency, but he may be lucky to even pull in a multiyear deal at this juncture.

The fact that Arrieta and Keuchel came with qualifying offers and draft pick compensation attached helped tamp down interest when they reached the market. Strasburg would also have a QO hindering him, as the Nationals wouldn’t just let him walk for nothing, and that’s something else he’ll have to think about. Fortunately for Strasburg, he looks more formidable than Arrieta did during his contract year or Keuchel did during his platform season. That doesn’t mean Strasburg will opt out – especially given the positive relationship he and agent Scott Boras have with Nationals ownership – but he may have a real decision on his hands in a few months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Angel Who Can’t Miss

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The Angels are off to a 29-31 start two-plus months into the season, but the Halos’ unimposing 60-game record isn’t the fault of their offense. The team’s Mike Trout-led attack ranks sixth in the majors in wRC+ (108) and 12th in runs (301), in part because it seldom strikes out. No team is running a lower K percentage (16.3) or a higher contact rate (82.9) than the Angels, though their ringleader isn’t Trout in either regard. Sure, Trout’s well above average in both categories (what else is new?), but it’s teammate David Fletcher who reigns as the Angels’ low-strikeout, high-contact king.

The 25-year-old Fletcher earned his first league promotion just under a year ago (on June 12, 2018), though he certainly wasn’t seen as a can’t-miss prospect at the time. But the infielder/outfielder hasn’t missed, literally or figuratively, in his first 12 months in the majors. In fact, Fletcher has already racked up 4.0 fWAR in 530 major league plate appearances. Since Fletcher’s first game last June 13, only three second basemen (Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield and Ketel Marte) have outdone him in the fWAR department. While a large portion of Fletcher’s 2018 value came from his defense, which has remained a strength this season, he’s now making the majority of his hay with his right-handed swing.

Fletcher has walked to the plate 223 times this season and recorded a .322/.377/.459 line, good for an impressive 128 wRC+. He’s not doing it with plus power, having swatted four home runs and logged a below-average .137 ISO. Fletcher’s also not reaching base nearly 38 percent of the time because of a special ability to draw walks; thus far, he has collected a free pass at a roughly average rate (8.1 percent).

Instead, Fletcher’s getting by on the fact that pitchers just can’t fool him. Fletcher’s ability to make contact is extraordinary. He sits first in all of Major League Baseball in strikeout rate (5.8 percent), swinging-strike rate (1.9 percent), contact rate (94.6 percent), zone contact rate (98.5) and out-of-zone contact rate (88.1). And Fletcher is rather selective, ranking second to Trout in swing rate (34.9 percent). In essence, when Fletcher actually does swing, he hits everything thrown at him. What’s more, he adds to hurlers’ stress by seldom going after pitches that aren’t over the plate. While Fletcher’s chase percentage (24.2) isn’t elite, it still puts him in a 25th-place tie in the sport.

The skills Fletcher’s demonstrating in the majors aren’t anything new. Fletcher previously showed off tremendous contact ability in the minors, including when he hit .350/.394/.559 with a 7.6 percent strikeout rate in 275 Triple-A plate appearances last year. The question is whether he can continue to offer production along his current lines as he moves forward. Signs are encouraging in that regard.

Fletcher’s .330 batting average on balls in play isn’t ridiculous, especially for someone with better-than-average speed and one of the league’s lowest fly ball rates. For the most part, delving into Statcast metrics leads to more positives for Fletcher. Although his exit velocity and hard-hit rate each rank in the league’s bottom 7 percentile (or worse), his expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average are near the top. Fletcher’s xBA (.334) is third in baseball, trailing only superstars Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. Meanwhile, Fletcher’s .363 xwOBA is actually a hair better than his real wOBA (.361).

Four years after the Angels used a sixth-round pick on Fletcher in 2015, it appears the club has something in the 5-foot-9 Southern California native. In a league where balls in play are dropping and home runs and strikeouts are soaring, Fletcher’s on the other extreme. He’s a unique and effective player who just might be in the early stages of becoming a long-term staple in Anaheim.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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