Upside Hunting: Joba Chamberlain
With Burke Badenhop off the market on a one-year deal with the Reds, few arms on the free agent market figure to land big league deals. Many of the remaining names are coming off poor seasons or injuries and will therefore end up signing minor league deals. While Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano will garner much of the attention and the chatter, in my eyes, Joba Chamberlain could be the best remaining option on the open market.
Entering just his age-29 season, Chamberlain was one of the youngest free agents available even at the beginning of the offseason, and he’s the youngest notable name on the relief market as a whole at this point. Not only that, but Chamberlain is coming off a quietly strong season in his lone year with the Tigers.
In 63 innings, Chamberlain posted a 3.57 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate. He wilted down the stretch, yielding a 4.97 ERA following the All-Star break, but much of that is attributable to a nearly seven percent dip in his strand rate. Chamberlain stranded runners at a 75.7 percent clip in the first half — which compares favorably to his career mark of 74.6 percent — but that number dropped to 69.1 percent. Should that mark trend back toward Chamberlain’s career level with all else remaining more or less equal, Chamberlain could turn in some excellent results in 2015.
Also worth considering is that the Tigers ranked 28th among 30 Major League teams in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, and they ranked 29th of 30 in in defensive efficiency. By virtually any defensive metric imaginable, Chamberlain was pitching with one of baseball’s least talented groups supporting him — a likely reason for the discrepancy between his 3.57 ERA and his stronger marks in FIP (3.16), xFIP (3.35) and SIERA (3.13).
Chamberlain did lose a bit of life on his fastball, dipping from an average of 94.7 mph to 93.5 mph, but that mark still rates as above average, and he offset the slight drop in velocity by throwing more curveballs — a pitch that graded out as his best, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values.
Some may point to his shaky 2013 season as a reason to shy away from the former top prospect, but it should be remembered that Chamberlain battled an oblique strain that year as he attempted to complete his first full season following Tommy John surgery. Control was his main problem in 2013 (5.6 BB/9), but he’s never battled that issue much in any other season spent pitching in relief.
Last offseason, Chamberlain signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Tigers in mid-December. He’s undoubtedly coming off a better season this time around, but Chamberlain has reportedly been selective about his destination, rejecting offers from a few teams for which he did not want to play, leaving him afloat on the open market as one of the last remaining candidates for a big league deal. If another one-year deal is in the offing, or even a two-year pact at a reasonable price, Chamberlain could be a significant boost to a contender’s bullpen at a cost that hardly seems prohibitive.
Free Agents With Team Control Remaining
The free agent cupboard is mostly bare, with James Shields, Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano representing the only three available names that made MLBTR’s Top 50 list heading into the offseason. However, there are still some remaining names that provide a certain level of intrigue, and each of the names in question in this post was ineligible for the list at the time it was released.
Each year, teams non-tender players (or, in some cases, tender the player but ultimately release him) in order to avoid paying a significant raise in arbitration. These players hit the open market like any other name, but so long as they have less than five years of service time, they come with an added bonus: they’re controllable beyond the coming season, even upon signing a one-year deal. Examples of players to have already done this are Alexi Ogando (Red Sox), Josh Outman (Braves) and Justin Smoak (Blue Jays). Each player received a one-year big league deal but will be controllable through at least the 2016 season via arbitration. Here’s a quick look at four others who come with that same perk…
- Brandon Beachy: The 28-year-old Beachy has four years, 104 days of Major League service time and would be controllable through the 2016 season upon signing a Major League deal. He missed the 2014 season after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery but comes with plenty of upside, even if he’ll likely sit out the first few months of the season while he rehabs. Beachy possesses a 3.23 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 267 2/3 career innings at the Major League level. He’s not likely to provide a significant boost for a team in 2015 — he could contribute some usable second-half innings — but he could be a very strong rotation arm in 2016 when he is two years removed from surgery. Beachy’s agent has said his client will not sign until Spring Training is nearer.
- Everth Cabrera: Cabrera, also 28, performed quite well as the Padres’ everyday shortstop from 2012-13, hitting .264/.339/.352 with 84 steals in 100 tries. The switch-hitter possesses some of the best speed in the game and is capable of handling either middle infield position. However, he also was suspended 50 games in 2013 after being tied to the Biogenesis scandal, and he’s currently in legal trouble as he faces potential jail time after being charged with resisting arrest. He also hit just .232/.272/.300 in 391 PAs last season. Still, given the dearth of talent at shortstop, Cabrera could be a boost to several clubs if he’s able to take the field for the bulk of the 2015 season. He, too, is controllable through 2016.
- Dayan Viciedo: Released by the White Sox earlier this week, Viciedo has the most team control remaining of anyone on this list. With just three years, 123 days of service under his belt, the 25-year-old could be controlled through the 2017 season, in theory. He’d likely need to tap into some of the to-date dormant potential that made him such a high-profile signing in the first place, but the powerful Cuban isn’t without his value. He’s a lifetime .291/.331/.507 hitter against lefties and could, at the very least, be a serviceable source of power off a team’s bench.
- Eric Young, Jr.: The 29-year-old Young hasn’t hit much in recent seasons, but he offers blistering speed on the basepaths and is a solid, if not somewhat above-average defender in left field. Young can handle center field in a pinch and also has some experience at second base, giving him some defensive versatility that could appeal to clubs. Over the past two seasons, he’s batted just .242/.306/.327, but he’s also swiped 76 bags in 93 tries — a success rate of nearly 82 percent. He’s controllable through the 2016 season.
Of course, not all of these players will sign Major League deals. Young, in particular, seems like a candidate for a minor league pact, in my estimation. However, upon making the club, the same service time caveats would apply. On a free agent market that is rapidly thinning out, these four players offer a bit of upside that could secure them a job beyond the 2015 campaign, as was the case with Justin Turner, Michael McKenry and Garrett Jones last offseason.
Not So Minor Moves: A Closer Look At Minor League Deals
So often lost in much of the offseason discussion of $200MM+ contracts for the market’s top free agents and the drama of big names that linger on the open market too long is the slew of minor league signings that steadily trickle in from November through the end of Spring Training. To readers and writers alike, these transactions often become a footnote; at best, such transactions may capture our attention for a brief moment before the next major name signs or is rumored to be on the move. It’s easy, then, to overlook the amount of work that goes into such moves — unless, of course, you’re the agent negotiating the deal.
“Minor league deals are a lot of work,” agent Josh Kusnick said to MLBTR. “They’re not always easy to do. Some come together more quickly than others. There have been times in my career where a ball club will call me the minute free agency starts… They’ll make their offer, it’ll make sense, and then it’s done. But there are other situations where it’s dragged on for an entire year.”
As is the case with big league free agents, minor league free agents that linger on the open market into the New Year and late January can often find themselves facing uphill battles. In the case of veterans such as Gerald Laird, Wil Nieves and other recent players to sign minor league pacts, there will still be teams that are interested based on their Major League track record. However, that’s not always the case with less experienced players. Finding deals for players with limited (or zero) Major League experience becomes increasingly difficult as the winter wears on, and that problem can be even more complicated if the player is Latin American, as the process to secure a visa for those players is lengthy and can cause some clubs to shy away as Spring Training nears.
“It’s much easier to sign players with residency,” agent Rafael Godoy told MLBTR. Godoy, who primarily represents Latin American players, noted that some — particularly those with significant MLB experience — are desirable enough and get enough early interest that the timeline to get a visa isn’t problematic. However, due to the early age at which players from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic can sign, many become free agents at age-22 or age-23 without any Major League experience. If early interest in those players isn’t strong, their lack of experience and the length of the visa process can increase the difficulty of finding a good opportunity.
“You don’t really want to wait until the new year to get them all done,” said Godoy. Acquiring visas for players from Latin American countries requires a lot of paperwork and legwork, he explained. Teams will have to make appointments with the consulate in that player’s home country, account for constantly changing immigration rules and wait for a visa approval process following a meeting/interview in the foreign country. Even if a player has his passport and documentation in order, Godoy added, visas can be denied for a variety of reasons, delaying a player’s ability to arrive at camp on time. (Indeed, stories of players who are late to camp due to visa issues seem to permeate Spring Training each season.) Because of the length of the process, some teams will becoming increasingly reluctant to go down that road as Spring Training nears.
The potential for such delays is one reason that some teams will be less willing to embark on the visa journey as Spring Training nears. One agent told MLBTR that he’d once been informed by a team that he was fortunate his client had established U.S. citizenship over the course of his pro career, because they likely wouldn’t have given a look to a player that still needed a visa that late in the offseason.
Of course, an invitation to Major League Spring Training isn’t always a requirement. It may, sometimes, even be overrated, per one agent. Some teams give out Spring Training invites “like candy,” he continued, which will often result in a player getting demoted to minor league camp at the first or second cut.
Additional sticking points include opt-out clauses and, of course, money — be it monthly salary in the minors or the size of the Major League salary, should that player reach the bigs. Indeed, Kusnick said, in his experience, money is typically the determining factor. “The money, the guaranteed salary, that’s usually the part that’s the trickiest,” said Kusnick. Sometimes, he notes, the most money isn’t necessarily the best thing. “I’ve advised [minor league free agents] to take less money to go to a better situation,” said Kusnick, noting that a good opportunity to make a big league club can outweigh a better minor league payday. “No one wants to get rich in the minor leagues. They want to be big leaguers.”
Finding the right balance of guaranteed money and opportunity to make the big league roster is a difficult task, and there’s no guarantee that a player will listen to his agent’s advice in such situations. “Ultimately, it’s the player’s decision where he wants to play,” said one agent who has had clients return to familiar situations in the past despite better opportunities to make a Major League roster elsewhere. At that point, the agent said, Spring Training essentially becomes “a tryout” or audition of sorts… for the other 29 teams in the Majors, that is. In those situations, opt-out clauses for players with significant MLB service time become paramount, and refusal to include them (or only conceding an opt-out late in the regular season) is often a deal-breaker, even at the cost of a significant minor league salary.
However many complications an agent may encounter in seeking a non-guaranteed deal for his or her client, they all pale in comparison to the realization that a player simply will not find an opportunity with an affiliated club. Yet another agent described one unenviable task as the worst part about being an agent — having to sit a player down and tell him that teams simply aren’t interested anymore. “I try to be as straightforward and honest about it as I can,” he said, noting that not all players handle such devastating news as well as others.
Still, on the flip side of the equation, there are few moments that stick with agents quite like seeing a client successfully revive his career. Kusnick was elated by the resurgence of Jeremy Jeffress with the Brewers in the season’s final months. Kusnick recalls pitching a return to Milwaukee to Jeffress: “I said, ‘Can you imagine going back to Milwaukee, pitching down the stretch, fighting for a playoff spot, and 50,000 fans cheering for you after all you’ve been through?'” Jeffress not only resurfaced with the Brewers but thrived, and Kusnick called a dramatic eighth-inning strikeout of Buster Posey with the game on the line “the affirmation of everything that we could never have dreamed of when he took that job … the coolest moment of my career, by far.”
Few MLB Deals Remain To Be Signed In Free Agency
Last year, between the beginning of February and end of March, twenty players signed guaranteed major league deals. Most of these were not among the very largest free agent contracts signed that offseason, but five were worth over $10MM and five came with multi-year commitments.
That does not appear to be the case this time around. Perhaps because there was no second Masahiro Tanaka saga to whistle a time out on signings — Yoan Moncada, exciting as he may be, will not be going straight into a big league lineup — the market has not waited around.
Looking at the remaining un-signed free agents, who are of course led by James Shields, it is difficult to see a large number of MLB deals being awarded. Excepting Shields, the one truly premium player left to choose a team, the pickings are fairly slim for clubs aiming to do more than add depth.
It would be rather surprising if any of Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Burke Badenhop, and Joba Chamberlain fail to secure a big league pact. Several of those right-handed relievers ought still to have a chance at multiple years, too. With the deals signed by similarly-situated rehabbing pitchers, Brandon Beachy still ought to command a 40-man spot. Newly-minted free agent Dayan Viciedo should see enough to demand as well, and Cuban middle infielder Hector Olivera seems destined to get big league money, although he is still not technically a free agent.
Beyond that, however, it does not seem that there are any locks to get a big league commitment. Among pitchers, Chris Young got strong results last year, but he is 36 and had less promising peripherals. Much the same is true of southpaw Joe Beimel. Back-of-the-rotation stalwarts Kevin Correia and Roberto Hernandez had their struggles last year and are reaching their mid-30’s.
On the position player side, Scott Hairston has just not put up passable numbers as a bench bat over the past two seasons. Everth Cabrera and Rickie Weeks still present talent up the middle, but each has various (and varying) issues that limit their appeal. Eric Young swiped 30 bags again last year, but had a .610 OPS.
To be sure, several of the players just noted will end up signing MLB contracts. All it takes is two competing clubs with need and reasonably available roster spots. And perhaps a few guys will lose jobs with one team but sign big league pacts with another (a la Kevin Frandsen last year).
But my money says that there will be significantly fewer big league signings this February and March than there were in 2014 — perhaps even half or less of last year’s twenty. And we are highly unlikely to see the same kind of value and length of contract that we did the spring prior.
Of course, that does not mean that you should tune out from MLBTR over the coming months. Quite the contrary: there remain several intriguing trade scenarios around the league, and don’t forget that extension season is just getting ready to kick into action.
James Shields And The Difficulty Of Finding $50MM In February
Entering February, James Shields remains far and away the most eyebrow-raising name left on the list of open-market players. Shields ranked third on the big board of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes coming into the hot stove season, but he has yet to sign despite the fact that we are now closer to the start of camp than we are to 2014.
It is somewhat difficult to assess how Shields reached this point and where he might expect to go. We here at MLBTR argued nearly one year ago that he was not likely to reach nine figures given his age, yet not more than a month ago he was reportedly in position to do just that. But momentum has never really seemed to gather towards a signing.
Regardless of the reasons why, surely, having entered the winter with an expectation that he would take home an average annual value approaching $20MM over four or five seasons, Shields should still manage to at least gain admission into that ballpark — right?
I’m not so sure, and recent reports suggest the same. While the still largely-unknown particulars of Shields’s market and the state of negotiations are the most important factors, precedent does suggest that the downside could go lower than merely giving up that fifth year.
This is not the first time in recent memory — or, if you prefer, the qualifying offer era — that the free agent market has been left with an unsigned, top-tier player heading into the month of February. Last year, Ervin Santana (6th) and Ubaldo Jimenez (11th) had to wait until after Valentine’s Day to sign, while 14th-rated Stephen Drew lasted through to the summer. In the 2012-13 class, No. 3 free agent Michael Bourn and No. 10 Kyle Lohse both languished.
Based on the experiences of those players, Shields faces an uphill path. To wit:
- Santana ($15MM) and Drew ($14.1MM, prorated) both ultimately settled for far less in terms of dollars and years than had been expected (see here and here);
- two mid-range arms in Lohse and Jimenez both had different experiences but landed within range of expectations, with the former perhaps earning more toward the lower end of his curve and the latter doing just the opposite;
- the most analogous player to Shields in terms of quality, perhaps, was Bourn, who entered the offseason accompanied by whispers that he might be looking for a deal approaching nine figures before settling for $48MM.
The Jimenez example shows that the market can still pay out at full price in February, perhaps especially for a starting pitcher who would upgrade virtually any team’s rotation. But all the other situations are less than inspiring, even when acknowledging their innumerable independent quirks and small aggregate sample size.
Let’s look back a bit further, using MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker (with filters applied). The tracker is admittedly sporadic before the 2006-07 signing year, but is solid to that point and dips back even earlier on more significant deals.
The results are actually somewhat startling: beyond Jimenez, only one single player — J.D. Drew, Valentine’s Day 2007, five years and $70MM with the Red Sox — cleared even the $50MM barrier. Indeed, only three other players — Max Scherzer (7/$210MM, 1/19/15), Matt Garza (4/$50MM, 1/26/14), and Prince Fielder (9/$214MM, 1/24/12) — signed for over $50MM in the second half of January. The bottom line is that it is late to find big money.
While it would be foolhardy to suggest that these highly context-specific data points tell us something immutable about how much Shields can earn, they do support the intuitive idea that Shields faces a greater possibility of a slide in earning capacity. That is all the more true, perhaps, given that he apparently values non-monetary elements enough to have already rejected a $110MM offer (though that reported figure has yet to be lined up with a plausible offeror).
What we do know (or think we know) about this specific market does not paint a rosier picture. Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney cited (Insider link) rival agents who feel that Shields may need to jump if he gets three guaranteed years at a reasonable price tag. Truly interested teams are somewhat scarce, and all have reasons not to plunk down anything approaching $100MM, as Olney’s colleague Jayson Stark recently wrote.
To be sure, plenty of time remains for the market to re-develop and the cost to go back up, to say nothing of a (perhaps unlikely) scenario in which Shields waits to see if injuries or other issues crop up this spring. But if Shields’s AAV does indeed fall below the expected $18MM to $19MM range, a three year pact could well land at or below the $50MM mark. Of course, as the above discussion shows, even reaching that threshold at this point in the offseason timeline would actually represent a rather unusual achievement.
Hardest-Throwing Relievers Left On The Open Market
Much of the free agent market has been picked clean at this point, but there are a handful of solid relief pitchers left for clubs looking to shore up their bullpens. In particular, there remains a group of relief options with heat that checks in well north of the 92.5 mph average velocity of the league-average relief arm from 2014. If your team is on the hunt for a hard-throwing arm, here are the top names left (courtesy of Fangraphs’ leaderboards)…
- John Axford (94.7 mph) — Axford split the 2014 season between the Indians and Pirates, and while his control was the worst of his career (5.9 BB/9), he also managed to strike out 10.4 hitters per nine and post a career-best 53.6 percent ground-ball rate. The Canadian-born former closer has been linked to the Rockies and Blue Jays of late and could be a boost to a number of bullpens if he can rein in his command and keep the added grounders.
- Chris Perez (94.3 mph) — Another former Indians stopper, Perez also battled his control in what was a disappointing first (and apparently only) season with the Dodgers. He’s still just 29 and won’t be 30 until July, making him one of the youngest options on the market. Perez’s K/9 dropped from 9.0 in 2013 to 7.6 in 2014, but his swinging-strike rate in 2014 was actually better than it was the year before. The velocity he showed was his best since 2010, so there are some positives here despite the sub-par results.
- Dustin McGowan (94 mph) — McGowan, 32, made it through the 2014 season without so much as a single day on the disabled list, which is no small feat for a man who was on the 60-day DL in each season from 2008-13. Those injury problems will limit McGowan’s market, and his 4.17 ERA (4.74 xFIP) don’t paint a pretty picture either. However, McGowan worked to a much more palatable 3.35 ERA (4.17 xFIP) in 43 innings as a relief pitcher, striking out 36 and walking 16.
- Phil Coke (93.7 mph) — Coke’s 3.88 ERA was the second-best full-season mark of his career, and 2014 was the first time that ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged him for a mark under 4.00. His strikeout numbers (6.4 K/9) weren’t up to his normal levels, but Coke did reestablish his control (3.1 BB/9). The 2014 season was another piece of evidence that he’s best shielded from right-handed hitters, but he can likely help a team against left-handed hitters.
- Joba Chamberlain (93.5 mph) — It’s been a surprisingly quiet offseason for Chamberlain given the strong year he recorded in 2014. Chamberlain posted a 3.57 ERA with most estimators feeling that mark could’ve come down by 0.2 to 0.4 runs. He averaged 8.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate in 63 innings and has age on his side, as he won’t turn 30 until late September. Perhaps the lack of activity truly is because he rejected offers from teams for which he did not wish to play, but I’m personally a bit surprised that we haven’t heard more on the Joba front this winter.
- Matt Lindstrom (93.1 mph) — Lindstrom is the elder statesman of this group at 34 (35 next week), and he’s coming off an injury-shortened season in which he recorded the second-worst ERA of his career (5.03). However, he has a history of plus velocity (95.8 mph career average fastball) and solid control. Lindstrom ditched his four-seamer for a sinker in 2012, and the result has been a ground-ball rate well over 50 percent in the three seasons since the change. He said he hoped to return to the White Sox previously, but a new team is probably the more likely outcome, and he could be a nice low-risk option for a team with bullpen uncertainty.
It should also be noted that names such as Jose Veras, Matt Albers and Kyle Farnsworth are either at or just a tick above the league-average velocity. Another relief option, David Aardsma, is set to throw for clubs a week from today and is said to have increased his velocity after changing his mechanics. Likewise, Albers will be showcasing for clubs a week from tomorrow.
Notable Transactions From February 2014
We’re coming to the end of the offseason, and with the notable exception of James Shields, most of this winter’s key free agents have found new homes. That doesn’t mean transaction activity is likely to come to a halt, however. Let’s look back to last February to see what kinds of moves we might expect in the month to come.
- In particular, last February was a huge month for extensions. The Braves signed Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran to lengthy deals. Homer Bailey and the Reds agreed to a six-year deal (plus a mutual option) that crossed the $100MM threshold. The Yankees signed Brett Gardner for four years and an option. Michael Brantley agreed to terms on a four-year deal with an option in a contract that now looks like a bargain for the Indians. And the Athletics signed Coco Crisp for two years.
- Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz finally escaped the specters of their rejected qualifying offers and signed with the Orioles. The first year of Jimenez’s deal was forgettable, although the Orioles’ cheap one-year deal with Cruz gave them the AL’s home run leader. Meanwhile, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales remained free agents. The qualifying offer didn’t have the same chilling effect on this winter’s market, obviously, with Shields as the only player who rejected a qualifying offer and hasn’t yet signed.
- Fernando Rodney and Bronson Arroyo both agreed to two-year deals, while A.J. Burnett signed his complex one-year deal with the Phillies. Jason Hammel and Francisco Rodriguez also signed one-year deals.
- Two international players signed semi-high-profile deals as shortstop Erisbel Arruebarrena headed to the Dodgers for five years and Suk-min Yoon went to the Orioles for three. (Neither deal has worked out as planned.)
- The Cardinals signed Pat Neshek to a minor-league deal that turned out to have a big impact, as Neshek produced a 1.87 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 and made his first All-Star Game.
- The Dodgers, meanwhile, signed infielder Justin Turner to a minor-league deal that produced a terrific .340/.404/.493 season over 322 plate appearances.
- The Nationals acquired catcher Jose Lobaton and two prospects from the Rays for pitcher Nate Karns.
MLBTR Originals
What better way to keep warm during a week in which millions of people had to dig out from Winter Storms Juno and Linus than to look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR:
- MLB Trade Rumors Podcast featured host Jeff Todd analyzing the upcoming extension season and reviewing the Astros’ busy winter with Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast will be released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- Tim Dierkes broke the news of the financial terms and bonus structure of Devin Mesoraco‘s extension with the Reds after being the first to report both sides were nearing a deal.
- Jeff listed the seven most intriguing free agents still on the market, two of whom (Alexi Ogando and Chad Billingsley) signed within 72 hours of the post being published.
- MLBTR was the first to learn right-hander Joe Blanton, who made only two starts last season for the A’s Triple-A affiliate before leaving the team and ultimately being released, will work out and throw a bullpen session for interested clubs this Wednesday in Nashville.
- Steve Adams hosted this week’s live chat.
- Zach Links assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
The Open Market’s Most Intriguing Remaining Names
As it always does, the free agent market contains some fairly noteworthy names entering the final month before Spring Training. A good portion of the value at the top of the leftover market lies in established names who have been reliable, healthy, and good in the recent past: James Shields, Francisco Rodriguez, and the like.
Some of those types of players may be a bit long in the tooth, perhaps, or might lack upside or be coming off of a somewhat down 2014 season. But there are teams with expectations of contending that are interested in signing them and plugging them into important roster slots. This segment of the market contains relative certainty.
But as much as the solid veteran group is useful, it is entirely less interesting than the array of wild cards that also remain to be signed. For another market niche, comparative youth, talent, and/or upside marry with various issues, inconsistency, and/or injury. Some such players will surely flame out, never to be heard from again, but it is likewise possible that one or more will re-establish themselves as quality regulars and deliver immense value to their new teams.
If you are a fan of a team that wants someone to dream on without breaking the bank (or even committing a big league roster spot, in some cases), consider one of these players from the scratch-and-dent market:
- Mike Adams, right-handed pitcher, 36 – Remember when the 6’5 reliever was a really effective set-up man? Wait, he has always been a really effective set-up man — when healthy. He may not have been on the field enough to deliver value to the Phillies on his $12MM free agent contract, but even while battling through injury Adams worked to a 3.50 ERA over 43 2/3 innings. Last year, especially, he was quite good: a 2.89 ERA (supported entirely by sub-3.00 ERA estimator marks) and better than ten punchouts per nine with a 56.3% groundball rate. Sure, it was a small sample (18 2/3) and his shoulder problems were still present. But if you’re going to roll the dice, it may as well be for a nice potential return.
- John Axford, right-handed pitcher, 31 – Axford still pumps gas and still logs double-digit strikeout rates. Sure, he walked nearly six batters per nine last year and ERA estimators have been increasingly dubious of his quality over the past three seasons. If he can figure out a way to reign back in the free passes and yield a few fewer long balls, Axford still looks like a late-inning arm. And now, teams can take a chance on a return to form without the high salaries that he carried more recently.
- Brandon Beachy, right-handed pitcher, 28 – The former Brave owns a lifetime 3.23 ERA over 46 big league starts, with a 3.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.39 SIERA. He has averaged better than nine strikeouts and less than three walks per nine innings. He also is on his second replacement UCL, this one installed last spring. In each of the above-referenced statistics, Beachy is entirely not-unlike fellow former Atlanta hurler Kris Medlen. Yet Beachy — who is one year younger — remains unsigned while Medlen has already secured an $8.5MM guarantee. He also can be controlled for an additional year through arbitration, with a low salary base to work from.
- Chad Billingsley, right-handed pitcher, 30 – As with Beachy, Billingsley was once an effective starter who has struggled for some time now to return from Tommy John surgery. What the latter lacks in dominating upside, he makes up for in the lengthy run of reliable innings he provided before succumbing to elbow troubles. From the time he became a full-time starter in 2008 through the 2011 season (the one before his elbow troubles began), Billingsley averaged 194 frames of 3.73 ERA pitching.
- Everth Cabrera, shortstop, 28 – Were it not for his off-field issues, it seems likely the Padres would have tendered the former starting shortstop and given him a chance to regain his 2013 form. The year before last, Cabrera registered a 114 wRC+ while swiping 37 bags (down from 44 in the season prior) and playing the best-rated defense of his career. That was a 3.1 fWAR player, even in a season cut short due to suspension. The 2014 version of Cabrera was not, even when on the field instead of nursing an injury. There are issues aplenty here, but his abilities stand out in a market that hurt for middle infield talent from the start. And it does not hurt that he comes with a year of arb control remaining.
- Alexi Ogando, right-handed pitcher, 31 – Flipping back and forth between starting and relief, Ogando and his mid-90s heater have long been a storyline. And until last year’s dud, he had never been anything but effective. Even after putting up 25 innings at double the allowed runs rate that he had generally permitted, Ogando sits with a lifetime 3.35 earned run mark. The track record of arm trouble remains a concern, but Ogando’s velocity was just fine last year and he could easily be on the rise with a normal spring.
- Rickie Weeks, second base, 32 – Once one of the game’s better keystone options, Weeks has stumbled backward in all areas of the game since 2012. But last year was a bit different; while his defensive metrics continued to lag behind his earlier work, Weeks did put up a .274/.357/.452 slash in 286 plate appearances that brought to mind better days. True, Weeks inflicted much of his damage against lefties, with his solid line against right-handers propped up by a .420 BABIP. But given his track record, a revived spurt of production at least raises the possibility of a late-career renaissance.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:
- MLB Trade Rumors Podcast featured host Jeff Todd discussing the free agent market, including the Max Scherzer signing and the outlook for James Shields, with MLBTR’s Steve Adams. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast will drop every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- MLBTR was the first to report left-hander Fernando Abad and the A’s avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.0875MM plus award bonuses.
- Jeff asked MLBTR readers what the next move should be for the Nationals. More than 45% of you believe GM Mike Rizzo should stand pat.
- Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
- Zach Links gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.