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Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Casas, Smith, Duran, Jameson

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The Hot Stove has been turned off. Big Hype Prospects (and baseball at large) enters the coldest month. Still, we have much to discuss.

Five BHPs In The News

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (MLB)
41 PA, 2 HR, .300/.317/.550

A former first-overall pick, Lewis showed signs of breakout in 2020 but wasn’t able to take the field. He also lost his 2021 campaign. Encouragingly, he posted a .313/.405/.534 line in 153 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He also hit five home runs with 12 steals and an uncharacteristically high 11.8 percent walk rate. One of the main knocks against him as a hitter is overaggression. Alas, he required surgery on his ACL and is expected to be out until next June or July. While injuries have plagued his early career, he’s still managed encouraging skill growth.

This winter has served as a rollercoaster from the perspective of Lewis’ future role with the Twins. Aggressive offers to Carlos Correa made it seem as if Minnesota had a shot to sign him. Then, as we’re all aware, Correa agreed to contracts with the Giants and then the Mets. The door was open for Lewis to supplant Kyle Farmer at midseason. Now, the Twins are back in on Correa. Recent rumors make it seem as if they have a real shot. If they ink Correa, Lewis will move down the defensive spectrum.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Casas came up in the last edition of BHP so I’ll refer you there for a description of him as a player. More recently, he’s been tied to the Marlins in trade talks. Miami is shopping its rotation depth while hunting for an impactful lineup presence. Curiously, fan reactions on social media seem opposed to a deal from both perspectives. Red Sox fans have been sold on Casas as a mid-lineup contributor. He certainly seems to check all the desirable hitter boxes – power, discipline, and a decent rate of contact. It’s well established that pitchers are less reliable than hitters from a health perspective. Sox fans would rather discuss dealing the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela as part of a package. Following the DFA of Lewin Diaz – who was once described in similar ways to Casas, Marlins fans are understandably hesitant to burn their pitching depth on a first baseman – a position many view as easy to solve in free agency. The club can stand to upgrade at nearly every offensive position.

Josh Smith, 25, UT, TEX (MLB)
253 PA, 2 HR, 4 SB, .197/.307/.249

A utility man acquired from the Yankees as part of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith technically burned his rookie eligibility last year. He demonstrated the plate discipline and contact rate for which he’s known but struggled with the quality of said contact. He blends a fly ball profile with poor barreled and hard contact rates. His 105.4-mph max exit velocity is well below league average. Fly ball hitters who make consistently weak contact typically don’t start.

Earlier in the offseason, the Rangers were reportedly shopping Smith (and the next guy) for upgrades elsewhere. He’s also in the left field mix – a deep collection of interesting but unestablished outfielders. Connecting a few dots, the Rangers recent interest in Bryan Reynolds could have implications for Smith – either because his path to playing time is that much longer or he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The Rangers are known for a fly ball-oriented approach to their hitting instruction. Smith might benefit from an organization that invests in a more balanced contact profile.

Ezequiel Duran, 23, UT, TEX (MLB)
220 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .236/.277/.365

As with Smith, the Rangers perhaps prematurely used Duran’s rookie year. A third baseman who has been forced off the position by Josh Jung, Duran has moderate issues with plate discipline and contact rate. He features above-average raw power as evidenced by a 110.2-mph max exit velocity. However, if he qualified, his 85.9-mph average exit velocity would have ranked among the bottom 20 in the league. Consistency held him back in his debut. Duran doesn’t have an obvious role on the Rangers roster and has much to learn in all facets of his game.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
24.1 IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 ERA

Jameson is one of several young pitchers battling for a rotation role with the Diamondbacks. After allowing a 6.95 ERA over 114 innings at Triple-A last season, I was skeptical about his ability to fit in a Major League rotation. Four starts did much to assuage my doubts. He’s a gimmicky pitcher who might best be used for short outings or relief work.

Pitch extension – the distance from the rubber when the pitcher releases the ball – is a trait taught by many organizations for a few reasons. The state of the arts suggests pitchers with average or better extension are more likely to have smoother mechanics. Extension also plays with perceived velocity. Jameson has among the worst extension in the league. His reach is short enough to play with hitters’ timing because his offerings feel like the crawl to home plate. It’s not uncommon to see hitters take uncomfortable swings against his two fastballs. Jameson has above-average command and also wields a slider he can throw for called strikes or swings out of the zone. His two fastballs both tunnel well with his two-location slider. Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension.

Three More

Ryne Nelson, ARI (24): Nelson is a typical pitching prospect possessing a four-pitch repertoire. He leans heavily on his fastball which he typically uses up in the zone to draw whiffs and weak fly balls. Neither his slider nor curve have stepped forward as his dominant breaking ball, though both offerings draw 50 grades from multiple evaluators. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches. He could slot into a high-leverage relief role. As a starter, he needs further refinement to become more than an innings eater.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): Unlike Jameson and Nelson, Pfaadt has yet to cut his teeth in the Majors. His minor league results are the most encouraging of the trio. A fly ball pitcher who generates plenty of swinging strikes and avoids free passes, Pfaadt shows advanced feel for using his repertoire to manipulate opposing hitters. There’s debate as to the quality of his specific offerings. It’s hard to pin down because he seemingly has used at least six distinct pitches.

Lenyn Sosa, CWS (22): Sosa was overmatched in a brief trial during the 2022 campaign, but he performed ably at Double- and Triple-A. He’s currently in the White Sox second base mix, competing with the likes of Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia. Scouts typically describe him as a future role player due to below-average athleticism. He habitually expands the strike zone.

MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

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The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

______________________

The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Finding A Right-Handed Bat For The Mariners

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The Mariners started their offseason with a bang, quickly striking a deal to acquire slugger Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays in exchange for quietly excellent setup man Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Seattle’s activity on the trade market continued when they landed Kolten Wong as their new starting second baseman in a cash-neutral swap that sent Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee.

It’s been quiet otherwise, however. Seattle signed righty reliever Trevor Gott to a Major League deal, but that’s the lone guaranteed addition via the free-agent market. The lack of activity in free agency has proven a source of consternation for M’s fans that wanted to see more on the heels of last year’s drought-breaking playoff appearance. Seattle’s projected payroll — about $135MM, per Roster Resource — is a noted increase from 2022 but still not close to the franchise-record $158MM set back in 2018.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has rightly pointed to the fact that the Mariners have indeed spent over the past calendar year and done so fairly aggressively. Julio Rodriguez inked an extension worth more than $200MM. Robbie Ray was signed to a five-year, $115MM deal on the heels of a Cy Young season. Deadline acquisition Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension. Andres Munoz, arguably the second-best reliever in MLB last season, signed a bargain four-year extension. Shortstop J.P. Crawford inked a five-year, $51MM extension. The Mariners took on the remainder of Eugenio Suarez’s contract in order to acquire Winker from Cincinnati — though it was Suarez, not Winker, who wound up being the true difference-maker in that swap. That rash of spending notwithstanding, it’s understandable if Mariners fans feel a little disappointed at the lack of free-agent activity when payroll is more than $20MM shy of its high-water mark.

As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes, the Mariners are still focused on adding to the roster, so it’s fair to withhold judgment for the time being. The primary focus, Divish reminds, is a right-handed bat — as laid out by Dipoto a month ago at the Winter Meetings. The goal of said addition, beyond merely strengthening the lineup from top to bottom, is to “take some of that pressure off” young outfielders like Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell and to give the Mariners “the ability to rotate at designated hitter” — as Dipoto himself put it in early December.

Since Dipoto made those comments, a number of players who’d otherwise have met that criteria have signed or been traded elsewhere. That said, there are still plenty of options who could align with his stated goals. We can’t know precisely when, but it feels like a foregone conclusion that the M’s will add at least one more bat. As things stand, they’re set at first base (Ty France), second base (Wong), shortstop (Crawford), third base (Suarez), catcher (Cal Raleigh), center field (Rodriguez) and right field (Hernandez).

In left field and at designated hitter, candidates for playing time include Kelenic, Trammell, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty, Cooper Hummel and yet-to-debut outfield prospect Cade Marlowe. Perhaps there’s a productive arrangement that could be borne out of that collection, but it’s only logical that the Mariners are focused on further additions, given the manner in which Kelenic and Trammell have yet to live up to their considerable prospect hype.

Let’s look around the free-agent and trade markets for some potential fits.

Free Agents

Obviously, we could run through every possible right-handed-hitting bat in free agency and lay out why they are or aren’t a good fit. To narrow the focus a bit, however, it’s worth keying in on some likely desirable traits. Dipoto specifically mentioned helping to take the pressure off young left field options like Kelenic and Trammell, so some aptitude in the outfield is likely a must. The Mariners have also tended to prefer players with defensive versatility in recent seasons; Moore, Adam Frazier, Toro and Haggerty all come to mind. It’s true that at times they’ve been willing to plug in a more defensively limited player (e.g. Carlos Santana), but like so many modern front offices, the Mariners have gravitated toward positional flexibility and fluidity when possible.

  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF: Mancini’s market doesn’t appear to have gained much steam, which is perhaps to be expected on the heels of a down year that featured a particularly slow finish with the Astros. Still, Mancini has a lengthy track record as an above-average bat, and even in a pair of “down” years in 2021-22, he’s been a few percentage points better than average by measure of wRC+. Mancini’s 35-homer campaign in 2019 looks largely like an aberration that can be chalked up to the juiced ball, but he’s a clear 20- to 25-homer bat with a solid glove at first base. He’s miscast as an outfielder but could at least play there on occasion while also taking regular reps at DH and playing some first base when Ty France needs a breather. It’s also worth noting that France has experience at second and third base, so he could be moved around a bit if the M’s wanted to stack as many righty bats in a lineup as possible against a tough lefty. The Mariners have preferred to use the DH as more of a carousel position in recent years, and Mancini would gum that up a bit, but he’d also give them a clearly above-average hitter who’s been just as effective against righties as lefties throughout his big league career.
  • Brian Anderson, 3B/OF: Suarez is locked into third base, but Anderson has ample experience in the outfield corners and could provide a platoon partner for Kelenic, a decent option at designated hitter and a safety net at third base in the event of a Suarez injury. A trio of shoulder injuries have helped to tank Anderson’s production over the past couple seasons, leading to a non-tender by the Marlins. However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this week, Anderson was one of Miami’s best players from 2018-20 and quietly ranked among the league’s 50 or so best position players by measure of wins above replacement in that time. At his best, Anderson is an above-average hitter with gap power and a respectable glove at multiple positions. He’s a buy-low candidate, to be sure, but he’d give Seattle some versatility and a quality track record at the plate (at least, prior to his recent injury troubles).

If the Mariners opt for a more contact-oriented, defensively versatile approach, it’s easy enough to see how veteran infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison could fit. He wouldn’t be the “big” bat for which many fans (and likely many within the organization) are hoping, but he’s bounced back from an ugly 2018-19 showing with a .270/.332/.390 showing over the past three seasons. He rarely strikes out, has above-average speed and offers an option at second base, third base and in the outfield corners. If the preference is to go for a strict outfield platoon partner for Kelenic/Trammell, veterans like AJ Pollock and Andrew McCutchen are affordable buy-low options. Both had poor overall showings in 2022, but both have a long track record of punishing left-handed pitching. Nelson Cruz would win some nostalgia points with Mariners fans, but Cruz would have to wholly occupy the DH slot rather than give Seattle “the ability to rotate” at DH, as Dipoto suggested, so he seems an unlikely fit.

Trade Possibilities

As with the free agents, this won’t be an exhaustive list of every possible option. Rather, the focus will be on players known or rumored to be available and able to either complement or entirely supplant the Mariners’ young incumbents in left field.

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates: The most obvious name for any team seeking an impact outfielder, Reynolds is a switch-hitting, 27-year-old All-Star (28 later this month) who requested a trade after the Pirates’ ideas regarding an extension came a reported $50MM or so shy of what Reynolds and his camp sought. Reynolds has been in trade rumblings for years, given the Pirates’ status as a rebuilding club. At three years from free agency, he’s just now getting to the stage where teams tend to earnestly begin considering a deal. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington has stressed that the trade request won’t necessarily be honored, however. The asking price on Reynolds has been sky-high in recent years, and that’s said to be the case again this offseason. Seattle’s farm has been depleted by graduations of stars like Rodriguez and trades of talents such as Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo (sent to Cincinnati in the Castillo swap). Between young big league talent and the team’s remaining top-end prospects, there’s still likely a path to a Reynolds deal that can be carved out, but Dipoto & Co. may not want to further deplete the farm to the levels necessary to pry Reynolds loose from Pittsburgh.
  • Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles: A switch-hitting corner outfielder with two years of club control remaining, Santander’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for a couple seasons. He’s a better hitter from the right side, evidenced both by a .293/.365/.548 split in 2022 (159 wRC+) and a career .262/.314/.468 slash as a right-handed batter (112 wRC+). The 28-year-old swatted a career-high 33 home runs in 2022. He drew curiously poor marks for his glovework in left field (-8 DRS, -5 OAA in just 299 innings), but that looks anomalous, given his track record of solid defense in right field. Santander doesn’t walk much and thus regularly posts poor on-base percentages, but there’s little doubting his power. The O’s are moving out of the rebuild, but Santander is two years from free agency and Baltimore has younger outfielders who’ll soon need a look (e.g. Kyle Stowers, Colton Cowser). Swapping Santander for a big-league arm and a near-MLB prospect — similar to the Mariners’ acquisition of Hernandez — could work for both parties.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: I’ll start this with the caveat that Arozarena is likely only available in a “the Rays will listen on anyone” capacity. Still, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggested early in the offseason that the Rays might at least listen to offers on Arozarena, who’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4MM in 2023. That’s a palatable price point for Tampa Bay, but Arozarena will be eligible thrice more as a Super Two player. The suggestion of exploring an Arozarena deal, to be clear, is not an indication that the two parties have discussed a trade nor that Arozarena is particularly likely to be moved. That said, the Rays are known to be looking for another left-handed bat, the Mariners want a right-handed bat. These two teams are frequent trade partners. There are some potentially aligned needs here, at least enough that it bears a speculative mention. Similarly, Seattle could hold interest in out-of-options, right-handed Rays bats like Harold Ramirez and Isaac Paredes.

There are surely other names who could be had, though not all of them are necessarily exciting. Colorado’s Randal Grichuk can play multiple outfield spots and tattooed left-handed pitching last year. He’s been strong against southpaws throughout his career. The Cardinals’ outfielders frequently seem to come up in trade speculation, and buying low on old friend Tyler O’Neill after a down season could have merit. The Giants have some platoon bats who hit lefties well and offer a bit of defensive versatility (Austin Slater, J.D. Davis).

There’s no real shortage of options for the Mariners to explore. As ever, it’s a fool’s errand to try to nail down exactly which path Dipoto, one of the game’s most active and creative executives on the trade market, might take. But it’s notable that the Mariners are still seeking a right-handed bat and still expect to add to the mix over the next several weeks. Signing Mancini might be the most straightforward option, but the obvious roads are rarely the ones taken by this Seattle front office.

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

Looking At White Sox’s Second Base Options

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The White Sox have made a couple notable free agent moves this offseason. Andrew Benintendi was brought in on a five-year, $75MM pact to solidify the corner outfield and ensure Andrew Vaughn heads to his natural first base position. Mike Clevinger inked a bounceback deal to add some depth to the back of the starting staff.

One position the White Sox haven’t addressed thus far is second base. The keystone was a question mark last year, with five players logging at least five appearances there. Josh Harrison and Danny Mendick are gone, with Chicago declining a club option on the former and non-tendering the latter. That leaves a trio of last year’s options who stand as the top in-house candidates for reps.

  • Romy González (26): González made his MLB debut in 2021 with 10 appearances, and he got into 32 more games last season. Between those two years, he’s mustered just a .241/.261/.350 line through his first 142 MLB plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on two home runs with well worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. He’s walked in just 2.1% of his trips against a 35.2% strikeout percentage. It was a fairly similar story with Triple-A Charlotte last year, where González punched out a third of the time en route to a .198/.281/.339 line over 33 games. He’d hit better in Double-A the year before, connecting on 20 homers in 78 contests in a pitcher-friendly environment — albeit with a 28.2% strikeout rate. González has some power upside but serious contact concerns against upper level pitching.
  • Leury García (32): García is an organizational favorite who’s headed into his tenth season with the club. He’s defensively versatile and has clearly endeared himself to multiple coaching staffs and the front office, culminating in a surprising three-year free agent deal last offseason. The switch-hitter has just a .253/.293/.350 career line at the big league level, though. Things were even worse in 2022, as he hit .210/.233/.267 over 315 trips to the plate. It’s hard to envision a win-now club counting on him as an everyday player, although he figures to play a multi-positional role off the bench.
  • Lenyn Sosa (23): Sosa has almost no MLB experience. He earned his first big league promotion in June and wound up appearing in 11 games the rest of the way. The Venezuela native is coming off an excellent season in the high minors. He hit well at both Double-A and Triple-A, combining for a .315/.369/.511 line with 22 home runs through 536 plate appearances. While Sosa only walked at a modest 7.3% clip, he kept his strikeout rate under 16%. One can’t be certain he’ll continue at that pace against MLB arms until he proves it at the highest level, of course. Sosa ranks 10th among White Sox prospects at Baseball America and may have the most upside of this trio, though there’d be plenty of risk for a team hoping to compete for a division title in turning the keystone over to him immediately.

The Sox have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster but none seems likely to step into the second base void. Chicago has toyed with the idea of playing Jake Burger at the keystone. He’s a better fit for the corner infield and only saw five innings of MLB action at second base last season. Jose Rodriguez and Bryan Ramos were each added to the 40-man after the 2022 season to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft; neither has any MLB experience to date. Yoán Moncada has played second base in the past, but the White Sox have deployed him exclusively at third base for the past four seasons. It doesn’t seem they’re considering moving him back to the middle infield.

Given the lack of an obvious internal solution, it’s unsurprising the club is open to bringing in help from outside the organization. General manager Rick Hahn told reporters yesterday the club could add at second base, though he indicated they were confident enough in González and Sosa they don’t consider that a necessity (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Their early-offseason activity has seemed to align with that expressed confidence, since they’ve watched the free agent middle infield market mostly dry up.

The remaining options on the open market are headlined by Elvis Andrus, who closed out the 2022 campaign with the White Sox after being released by the A’s. The veteran has only ever played shortstop in his MLB career, as he filled in there with Tim Anderson injured late last season. Perhaps Andrus is uninterested in moving to second base, though it stands to reason he’d be able to handle the position if willing to kick to the other side of the bag. Harrison is probably the next-best unsigned middle infielder. The Sox presumably don’t view him as a notable upgrade over their in-house options considering they declined to retain him on what amounted to a $4MM decision at the start of the offseason.

If not Andrus, that’d probably leave Hahn and his staff looking to the trade market. Any specific trade targets for the Chicago front office aren’t publicly known, although a few players stand out as speculative possibilities. The Blue Jays have a number of second base options and might be amenable to parting with Cavan Biggio or Santiago Espinal. The Marlins have relegated Joey Wendle and Jon Berti to utility duty after signing Jean Segura. If the Mets indeed finalize their deal with Carlos Correa, maybe they’d deal old friend Eduardo Escobar somewhere with a clearer path to playing time.

The A’s would presumably consider offers on Tony Kemp. That’s likely also the case for the Cubs and former White Sox Nick Madrigal, who lost his starting job after they signed Dansby Swanson to push Nico Hoerner to the keystone. Longer-shot trade candidates include Ha-Seong Kim and Gleyber Torres, although the White Sox might have to dip further than they feel comfortable into a shallow farm system to land either of those players. The same is true of Nolan Gorman, who debuted for the Cardinals last season but could be available in a deal that lands St. Louis immediate MLB help in another area. That’s not an exhaustive list but highlights a few players the Chicago front office could check in on.

Figuring out second base is presumably the top priority for Hahn and his group. Even if the front office genuinely is confident in González and/or Sosa to step up, adding a veteran complement as insurance for that unproven duo makes sense. The organization might not have much more spending capacity after the Benintendi signing. None of the remaining free agent options should break the bank, though, while a player like Espinal or Berti projected for a fairly modest arbitration salary shouldn’t be difficult to fit onto the books.

Free Agent Profile: Brian Anderson

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Brian Anderson had a really solid run for the Marlins from 2018 through 2020. In that three-year period, he hit 42 home runs while walking in nine percent of his trips to the plate and striking out in 21.8 percent of them. His batting line in that stretch was .266/.350/.436, good enough for a wRC+ of 115, indicating that he was 15 percent better than the league average hitter.

Defensively, Anderson had very brief appearances at first and second base but split most of his time between third base and right field. His work at the hot corner was graded well by advanced defensive metrics, as he posted five Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved in that time, along with a 2.8 mark from Ultimate Zone Rating. In right field, OAA gave him a -4 mark, but he posted 6 DRS and a 7.2 UZR.

When his above-average offense was paired with that quality defense, he was worth 7.2 wins above replacement, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. That mark was in the top 60 among position players. For the Marlins, who were trading away their star players at this time, Anderson’s 7.2 fWAR from 2018-20 was easily the best on the squad. In a distant second was J.T. Realmuto, who posted 4.8 fWAR in 2018 alone before getting traded to the Phillies prior to the 2019 campaign.

The last couple of years, however, have been a struggle for Anderson. Health has played a significant factor, as he’s made multiple trips to the injured list in each of the two most recent seasons. In 2021, he only played 67 games while heading to the IL due to a left oblique strain and twice due to a left shoulder subluxation. His batting line slipped to .249/.337/.378 and a wRC+ of 98. Last year, he played 98 games, missing time due to a stint on the COVID-IL as well as going to the traditional IL for lower back spasms and a left shoulder sprain. His offense dipped even further, finishing the year at .222/.311/.346 (90 wRC+).

The Marlins could have retained Anderson for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $5.2MM. But based on Anderson’s diminished performance in the past couple of years, they non-tendered him instead. Presumably, the Marlins contacted the other 29 clubs before this move to see if anyone else was interested in acquiring Anderson at that price point. The fact that a deal didn’t come together suggests that no club was willing to both pay Anderson a salary in that range and also give Miami something of value on top of that.

Even though he’s been injured the past couple of seasons, there are still some good signs under the hood. Anderson’s maximum exit velocity was 112 mph in 2022. That’s a couple of ticks below 2018-19, when he was able to get into the 113-115 range, but it was still enough to get him into the 81st percentile among qualified hitters last year. He was also in the 65th percentile in terms of barrel rate and 61st in terms of hard-hit rate.

His strikeout rate has been on the high side over the past few years but his walk rate has stayed fairly steady. He has a 9.3% walk rate for his career and has been at 9.7% over the past couple of seasons even while struggling in other areas. While not a huge stolen base threat, his sprint speed was in the 53rd percentile in 2022, so he’s at least an average runner. On Statcast’s new arm strength leaderboard, Anderson is in the 99th percentile, with only five qualified players ahead of him. Even while banged up this year, he still demonstrated that there are some tools in his skill set.

That makes Anderson an interesting buy-low candidate at this late point of the offseason, with many of the top free agents having already signed. Yesterday, the Nats agreed to a deal with Dominic Smith, who was projected for a $4MM salary before being non-tendered by the Mets. Instead, he’ll get $2MM from Washington with a further $2MM available in incentives. Like Anderson, Smith struggled over the past two years but showed plenty of potential in the prior seasons. Perhaps Anderson could find himself a similar type of deal in the coming weeks.

The Tigers stand out as a particularly strong fit, since they non-tendered Jeimer Candelario and haven’t done anything to replace him at the hot corner thus far. They have some young players who could potentially take that spot, such as Ryan Kreidler, Kody Clemens or Zack Short. However, none of those players have really cemented themselves as surefire big leaguers yet, and Anderson could move to the outfield if they took a step forward this year. With Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows looking to bounce back from frustrating seasons, Anderson could give them some cover in case either of those in-house options continue to struggle.

The Reds probably want to give Spencer Steer a chance to take over their third base job, but he has only 28 MLB games under his belt at this point. Anderson could provide a veteran alternative and also factor into their outfield mix if Steer takes off. It’s a similar situation in Texas, where the Rangers have Josh Jung penciled in at the hot corner despite the fact he’s played just 26 major league games. They also need help in left field and are about $12MM away from the lowest luxury tax threshold, making a low-cost addition like Anderson an intriguing solution. The Phillies have Alec Bohm at third, but he’s generally considered a poor defender. With Bryce Harper recovering from Tommy John surgery and no longer taking up the designated hitter slot, perhaps Bohm could move to first and bump Rhys Hoskins into the DH role.

Anderson could also fit on most teams in a part-time role off the bench, though platooning might not be a perfect plan. Anderson hits from the right side and was better against lefties in 2022, posting a 111 wRC+ against them compared to an 85 versus righties. However, he has reverse splits for his career, with a 93 wRC+ against southpaws and a 112 otherwise.

Health will likely be a big factor in Anderson’s market, since that has seemingly been hampering him over the past couple of years. But if he’s able to overcome his ailments and get back to the kind of player he was in 2018-20, there could be great value for a team paying him $5MM or less. Anderson was essentially on a three-WAR annual pace in that period, since he accrued 7.2 fWAR over two full seasons and the shortened 2020 campaign.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?

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Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.

At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ’pen. Some ’Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.

Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.

That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ’Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.

There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.

Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.

Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.

That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.

As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.

The Astros Still Need To Add Behind The Plate

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The Astros have been connected to various catchers this offseason. They had reported interest in free agents Willson Contreras, Christian Vázquez and Tucker Barnhart and also contacted the A’s to explore a trade of Sean Murphy. However, they missed on all of those targets, as those free agents have since found new teams and Murphy was dealt to the Braves.

Things have been fairly quiet for a while now, as their interest in Barnhart was reported back on December 7 and little mention of their plans behind the plate since. It would stand to reason that they still need to be on the lookout for upgrades, however, as their current catching corps is noticeably weaker than last year.

In 2022, the Astros began the season with Jason Castro as the backup to Martín Maldonado. Castro got into 34 games by the end of June but hit the injured list in early July with knee discomfort. He would later require season-ending surgery and then announced his retirement in December. The Astros acquired Vázquez at the deadline to help them down the stretch, though he reached free agency at season’s end and has since signed with the Twins.

With Castro and Vázquez out of the picture, that leaves Maldonado as the clear top option on the depth chart. He’s now 36 years old, turning 37 in August, and just underwent sports hernia surgery in November. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but there’s obviously risk with a club’s primary catcher being on the older side. Though Maldonado is well regarded as a game-caller and leader of a pitching staff, he doesn’t rank very well in objective statistical measures. He’s been a below-average hitter in each season of his career apart from the shortened 2020 campaign, leading to an overall batting line of .209/.285/.349. That production has been about 28% below league average, with his wRC+ coming in at 72. However, the Astros seem to be perfectly comfortable living with that tepid offense in order to get Maldonado’s other qualities in the dugout and clubhouse.

In July, there was a one-month period where Castro was out and Vázquez had not yet been acquired. In that window, the club promoted prospect Korey Lee. Going into 2022, Lee was considered the club’s top prospect, with shortstop Jeremy Peña coming in second. That high ranking came on the heels of a strong 2021 that saw Lee go from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A in his age-22 season.

Unfortunately, 2022 didn’t go as smooth for Lee. He got into 12 MLB games in the month of July but hit just .160/.192/.240. That’s a tiny sample and he was still quite young, turning 24 years old that month. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he did hit 25 home runs, but in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His .238/.307/.483 batting line was actually 10% below league average in that environment, with his wRC+ finishing at 90. Perhaps most concerning is that he struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances, a huge jump from his previous stops in the minors. Baseball America dropped him to #6 on their most recent list of Houston prospects. It’s still possible that he’s the club’s catcher of the future, as he won’t turn 25 until July, but he might still need a bit more time in the minors to continue developing.

The only other catcher on the club’s 40-man roster is Yainer Díaz, who’s 2022 was essentially the inverse of Lee’s. Díaz went from being considered by BA to be the club’s #16 prospect at the beginning of the year to #2 by midseason. With a bat-first reputation, Díaz put that on display last year. Beginning 2022 in Double-A, he hit .316/.367/.504 for a wRC+ of 121 in 57 games and got promoted to Triple-A. At that new level, he hit .294/.342/.587 in 48 games for yet another wRC+ of 121. He was able to make his major league debut late in the year but didn’t hit much in just six games. That offensive production is certainly encouraging, but his defense isn’t as highly rated. He spent some significant time at first base and in the outfield corners in order to get his bat into the lineup last year. It’s arguable that he doesn’t need much more time in the minors from an offensive perspective, but he’s also only played 48 Triple-A games. Since he’s still just 24 and his defense is a work in progress, more time in the minors wouldn’t be a ridiculous proposition either.

The Astros showed last year that they’re not afraid to rely on a young and unproven player on Opening Day. Going into 2022, they replaced Carlos Correa with Jeremy Peña, who had no major league experience yet. That was certainly risky, but it worked out for the club, with Peña having a very good season and eventually winning World Series MVP. However, that kind of rookie breakout isn’t something that can simply be relied upon. As it currently stands, the club has a 36-year-old starter who doesn’t hit much and is coming off surgery, followed by two youngsters who each have tiny bits of MLB experience and arguably still need regular playing time in the minors.

The club is surely aware that it needs to do something, based on their interest in other backstops this winter. But most of the best options are off the board now, which leaves the Astros looking at Gary Sánchez, Roberto Pérez and Jorge Alfaro as some the top names still available. Those players each have their merits but are considered a tier below guys like Contreras, Vázquez or Murphy.

None of those players will likely require more than a one-year deal, so it’s possible that 2023 is sort of a wait-and-see year behind the plate in Houston. Maldonado is also a free agent after the upcoming season, so perhaps the club can ride with him and another veteran for the year, with either Lee or Díaz hopefully taking over and securing the job for 2024. The Astros still have a very strong roster, as they are the defending champions and have added José Abreu to replace Yuli Gurriel in their thunderous lineup. Justin Verlander has departed for the Mets but the rotation should still be in good shape without him. Despite the club’s strengths, their division looks much more challenging than it did a year ago, as the Mariners had a breakout year in 2022 while the Angels and Rangers have each been very active in upgrading their rosters this offseason. For the Astros, the catching corps stands out as the one weak spot on their roster and should still be addressed before they begin their title defense.

The A’s Could Make A Left-Handed Power Bat Available In Trade

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The A’s are firmly amidst a rebuild. They stripped the roster almost to its studs over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling what had been a borderline playoff team to cut spending. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt all departed last winter; Frankie Montas followed at the deadline, and Sean Murphy was the last big piece to move a few weeks ago.

With all their star players out the door, Oakland has mostly completed its sell-off. They’re now integrating a number of younger, pre-arbitration players onto a roster that again figures to be one of the worst in the American League in 2023. The A’s are looking a few years down the road, and it stands to reason they’d therefore be open to moving virtually any player on the roster with an established major league track record.

Ramón Laureano may be their highest-upside trade candidate, but he’s coming off a rough season that’s a year removed from a performance-enhancing drug suspension. It’s probably best to let him try to rebuild his stock with an eye towards a deadline deal. There’s another outfielder whom general manager David Forst could consider more of a sell-high possibility: Seth Brown.

A former 19th-round pick, Brown was never regarded as an especially notable prospect. He didn’t reach the majors until after his 27th birthday late in the 2019 season. Brown barely played at the MLB level his first couple years, not topping 26 MLB games in a season until 2021. He picked up 307 plate appearances that year, connecting on 20 home runs but only reaching base at a .274 clip.

Last season, the Lewis-Clark State College product got his first real run as an everyday player. He suited up 150 times and tallied 555 trips to the plate. Brown hit .230/.305/.444 with 25 homers. His on-base percentage, while a bit below the .312 league mark, wasn’t at the untenable clip of the previous season. He cut his strikeout rate from 29% to a more manageable 26.3% while boosting his walk percentage to a solid 9.2% clip. Brown still doesn’t have a great plate discipline profile, but those numbers are sufficient for a player with his power. His slugging mark was nearly .050 points above the league average despite playing half his games at Oakland’s spacious ballpark.

Virtually all of those gains came as part of a torrid second half. Brown carried a .216/.269/.396 line into the All-Star Break. After the Midsummer Classic, he posted a .249/.348/.507 showing over 250 plate appearances. He more than doubled his walk rate from 6.2% to 12.8% and collected 15 longballs in the second half.  He finished tied for 11th in the majors in homers after the Break, while his 147 wRC+ during that time (indicating overall offensive production 47 percentage points above the league average) checked in 27th among those with at least 150 plate appearances.

As with any relatively small-sample performance of that nature, it’s probably fair to assume Brown won’t maintain that pace. He doesn’t need to be a top 30 hitter in the league to be valuable, though, and it’s clear he has legitimate power upside. He’s now picked up 45 homers in a bit less than 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In both years, he’s put up a hard contact rate north of 40% — around five points higher than the league mark.

Even with some likely regression from his late-season tear, Brown at least profiles as a quality power bat for the strong side of a platoon. For his career, the left-handed hitter owns a .239/.309/.482 line against right-handed pitching. He’s managed only a .172/.230/.297 mark against southpaws and would probably be shielded from looks against tough lefty arms if he were to land with a contender.

A decent runner, Brown also stole 11 bases in 13 attempts last season. The A’s even gave him some late-season work in center field, though he struggled significantly there. Public metrics suggest he’s a more viable defender in the corner outfield and at first base. The bat will have to carry the profile, but Brown has enough athleticism he could factor in at a few of the lower-value positions on the defensive spectrum.

There haven’t been any indications Brown’s name has come up in trade talks between Oakland and other clubs thus far. Unlike most of the players the A’s have shipped off in recent seasons, they have no payroll motivation to deal Brown. He’ll play this season for little more than the league minimum salary and is eligible for arbitration three more times after that. Trading him wouldn’t be about saving money but the opportunity to potentially recoup a mid-level prospect or two for a player whose trade value may be at its peak. While he’s controllable for the foreseeable future, Brown is already 30 and presumably not seen as a core long-term organizational piece for a rebuilding club.

A productive lefty platoon bat to rotate through the corner outfield and first base should have more appeal to an immediate contender, particularly since Brown’s affordability means he’d fit on the books anywhere. Teams like the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers all have some amount of uncertainty at either first base or in the outfield. Tampa Bay and New York stand out as particularly strong speculative fits considering their lineups tend to skew right-handed. Brown wouldn’t be a franchise-altering addition, but he should be of interest to a number of teams as they build out their roster depth with free agency mostly finished.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

 

Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

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Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

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