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Big Hype Prospects: Florial, Tiedemann, Amaya, Tovar, Vargas

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For this week’s post, let’s look at some prospects who might be affected by recent rumors….

Five BHPs In The News

Estevan Florial, 25, OF, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 461 PA, 15 HR, 39 SB, .283/.368/.481

Although Florial has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, he has just 63 plate appearances to his name. The left-handed hitter has yet to find success in New York, batting a combined .185/.302/.278. Now out of minor league options, Florial is poised to participate in a good old-fashioned Spring Training battle for oufield playing time. Barring a trade, the Yankees are running out of free-agent challengers for in-house options like Florial, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa for left field. They also added Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega as non-roster depth.

It’s easy to spot Florial’s biggest weakness; no matter the quality of competition, he consistently posts a high swinging strike rate. Florial is also a disciplined hitter, which means he takes his fair share of looking strikes. These traits contribute to an over 30 percent strikeout rate. Successful hitters of this type (i.e. Kyle Schwarber) have an excellent quality-of-contact profile, but since Florial hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability make such contact, his future as a Major League regular is dependent on skills growth. Should his strikeout rates and/or quality of contact improve, he has easy double-plus speed and enough raw power to become an entertaining regular. Even if Florial remains a role player, his speed dovetails nicely with the new baserunning-related rules. Even if playing time might be hard to come by in the crowded New York outfield, Florial could serve as a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Ricky Tiedemann, 20, SP, TOR (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 78.2 IP, 13.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

A 2021 third-round draftee, Tiedemann is on the shortlist with the likes of Andrew Painter and Eury Perez for best pitching prospect aged 20 and under. We’ve covered him a few times within the confines of this column. The Blue Jays appear headed toward a Spring Training battle for the fifth starter role, and Tiedemann is an attractive (albeit longshot) option for the job. The southpaw has three plus pitches, although reports suggest he could do with more time in the minors to better learn how to command his offerings. An Opening Day roster spot seems implausible, but we could see Tiedemann in Toronto by midseason. One caveat is his workload, as he averaged just over four innings per start last season and typically faced between 17 and 20 batters. Between low per-outing and total innings, Tiedemann might be more focused on stretching out than contributing in 2023.

Jacob Amaya, 24, SS, MIA (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 567 PA, 17 HR, 6 SB, .261/.369/.427

We covered Amaya a little over a month ago when speaking of the Dodgers middle infield depth. The skinny is straightforward – he’s a patient hitter with a history of modest exit velocities and too much ground ball contact. The profile is that of a second-division starter or utility man. Acquired by the Marlins as the return for Miguel Rojas, Amaya should find his way to the Majors at some point this season – possibly Opening Day. Unlike higher-profile prospects, the Marlins have little incentive to worry about Amaya’s club control. He could potentially form a platoon with Joey Wendle or join Jon Berti and Jordan Groshans as flexible bench depth.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar has just 23 plate appearances in Triple-A and another 35 in the Majors. Even so, the Rockies seem intent to include Tovar on the Opening Day roster. Colorado explored at least one trade of infielder Brendan Rodgers, and the free agent options to fill a middle infield role are beginning to dwindle. Even with Rodgers in the fold, Tovar could still garner a starting job. The shortstop is expected to have some issues with swinging strikes early in his career, particularly with breaking balls outside of the zone. An aggressive approach might help him to avoid strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas, 23, UT, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Major League pitchers figured out how to work above Vargas’ barrel in a limited 50 plate appearance trial last season. Vargas has both discipline and a feel for contact. The Dodgers are adept at deploying their hitters in beneficial matchups. Look for Vargas to form a very loose platoon with the likes of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and James Outman across multiple positions. His reputation for barreling baseballs suggests he’ll adapt to high fastballs. If not, he can still be used against pitchers who lack that particular weapon or otherwise have poor command. He’s considered particularly adept at hitting breaking balls.

Three More

JJ Bleday, MIA (25): No longer rookie-eligible after making 238 plate appearances last season, Bleday nonetheless remains an unproven prospect with an uncertain future in Miami. Bleday did well to adapt his swing after a disappointing 2021 campaign, but he is an extreme flyball hitter who seems destined to require a friendlier home venue. The Marlins’ rumored interest in Max Kepler could affect Bleday’s opportunities in 2023.

Stone Garrett, WSH (27): A late-bloomer who signed with the Nationals early in the offseason, Garrett could be the next Patrick Wisdom. The sluggers aren’t perfect clones of one another, but they’re known for whiffing often and putting a charge into it when they connect. Garrett has an over-aggressive approach and questionable breaking ball recognition.

Brett Baty, NYM (23): Now that Carlos Correa has officially re-signed with the Twins, Baty should be back in the Mets long-term plans. The patient lefty hitter is expected to bat for a high average. Between power-suppressant CitiField and a grounder-oriented approach, Baty’s high exit velocities might not parlay into many home runs. His third base defense is considered below average, though I would hazard his baseline is higher than that of Alec Bohm. If Bohm can work his way up to acceptable defense, Baty should be able to do the same.

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

Teams Seeking Infield Help Should Call The Rockies

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Earlier in the offseason, it was reported that Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers was a name discussed in trade talks with the Marlins centering around Miami’s cadre of controllable starting pitchers. The interest from both parties was understandable. The Marlins, deep in both starting pitching prospects and big league starters, are light on position player depth and in dire need of augmentation to the lineup. The Rockies, conversely, have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects. Pitching is a perennial Achilles heel for the Rockies. A trade seems sensible enough on paper.

However, a deal hasn’t come together. Rodgers remains in Denver, and the Marlins continue to discuss their stockpile of arms with teams throughout the league. Perhaps the two parties don’t see eye-to-eye on Rodgers’ value. Perhaps they disagree on the value of Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

The lack of an agreement between the two parties doesn’t mean that there’s no sense in a trade of Rodgers. While it’s true that the Rockies needn’t feel any urgency to trade the former No. 3 overall pick, who has three years of club control remaining, that need for pitching still persists. And, at least on paper, Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers.

Beyond the fact that Ryan McMahon can handle third base or second base, the Rockies have prospect Ezequiel Tovar effectively ready for a Major League look. Assuming Tovar handles shortstop and McMahon is comfortable playing either third or second base, the free-agent market offers palatable replacement options if Rodgers were to be subtracted from the infield. Brian Anderson and Josh Harrison are just two free agents who could help fill a short-term void while the Rockies await the development of prospects like Warming Bernabel and Adael Amador, who could be MLB-ready by 2024 or 2025.

The simple fact of the matter is that Colorado isn’t likely to contend in 2023 — not with a deep Padres club and a perennial (albeit somewhat diminished) playoff threat in the Dodgers lurking atop the division. The Giants haven’t necessarily made the type of waves that’ll make them a division contender, but they’re probably a better club now than at the end of the 2022 season after signing Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers (while also losing several key pieces — none bigger than Carlos Rodon). The D-backs are more of a long shot to contend, but they’ve added some veteran help and will graduate no fewer than three high-end prospects to the Majors in 2023 (Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt).

Bottom line: a contending season for the Rockies is almost impossible to imagine. Rockies fans and certainly their front office/ownership may disagree, but it’s tough to see how the additions of Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter, and the re-signing of Jose Urena dramatically alter the fortunes of a team that finished 68-94 in 2022.

That grim reality doesn’t mean the Rockies should simply sell Rodgers and others with three or fewer years of club control for the highest offer, but Rodgers specifically is in a position where he could perhaps fetch considerable value. The free-agent market this winter featured four star-caliber shortstops, but one of the three (Xander Bogaerts) went to a club (the Padres) that didn’t even have a clear need for a shortstop. Carlos Correa took a bizarre, winding road back to Minneapolis. That signing, plus the Twins’ acquisition of Kyle Farmer, took two viable shortstop options for interested parties and placed them on the same roster. Meanwhile, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson wound up in Philadelphia and Chicago (the north side), respectively. That sequence of events left several clubs in need of middle infield depth standing empty-handed.

Rodgers, 26, isn’t Correa, Bogaerts, Turner or Swanson — or at least he hasn’t been yet. He’s a former No. 3 overall pick and was once one of the sport’s top 15 overall prospects according to multiple outlets, but his performance to this point hasn’t quite justified that hype. Still, he’s in his prime and has three years of control, defensive aptitude at both middle-infield positions and a strong batted-ball profile that could be a portent for further success.

Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has turned in a combined .274/.326/.434 batting line with 28 homers, 51 doubles and six triples in 996 trips to the plate. The fact that he plays his home games at Coors Field means that park- and league-adjusted metrics like wRC+ weight that offensive performance at five percent below league average. Rodgers, indeed, has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere. There have been myriad studies performed about the manner in which playing home games at altitude can impact performance on the road, but moving out of an at-altitude home field environment can counteract some of those struggles. Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and others have left the Rockies and gone on to fare well in other cities.

Beyond a generally solid string of results in Colorado, Rodgers possesses an intriguing batted-ball profile. Statcast ranks him well above average in terms of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate and whiff rate. Rodgers doesn’t draw walks in droves, but he also has plus bat-to-ball skills (17.6% strikeout rate), rarely chases off the plate and hits the ball pretty hard (90 mph average exit velo, 45.9% hard-hit rate). It’s fair to wonder whether there’s another offensive gear to be unlocked.

Defensively, Rodgers grades anywhere from above-average to elite. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career at second base, but that’s largely been in deference to Trevor Story. Rodgers posted a mammoth 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 8.0 Ultimate Zone Rating at second base in 2022, and while Statcast’s Outs Above Average took a more measured view, that metric still rated him as three outs better than a standard second baseman. In 220 innings at shortstop, he’s posted decent marks in DRS (1), UZR (1.7) and OAA (-1).

Whether other club view Rodgers as a potential shortstop who’s been blocked at his position or as the high-end second base defender he was in 2022, he has clear value. Rodgers has proven capable of hitting for a solid average and thus delivering a quality OBP (even in spite of pedestrian walk rates). He’s shown some power, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggest there could be more in the tank. He agreed to a $2.7MM salary earlier today  — in part, a reflection of injuries that have slowed his accumulation of counting stats. And, he’s controllable through the 2025 season.

All in all, it’s a nice package that other teams surely covet. It’s understandable that the Rockies would be reluctant to part with Rodgers, particularly if they believe it’s possible he’ll take another step forward in 2023. General manager Bill Schmidt was the team’s scouting director when Rodgers was drafted, after all, so it’d be no surprise to hear that Schmidt believed Rodgers hadn’t yet reached his peak.

At the same time, the Rockies are in a tough spot with regard to their pitching staff. German Marquez is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract and just turned in a career-worst showing in 2022. Kyle Freeland responded to his surprising contract extension with 174 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. Antonio Senzatela will miss the beginning of the season following a ligament tear in his knee, and he’d struggled in the wake of his own extension even prior to that injury. The third, fourth and fifth spots in the Rockies’ rotation are likely to be held down by the aforementioned journeyman Urena, Austin Gomber (5.56 ERA in 124 2/3 innings in 2022) and Ryan Feltner (5.83 ERA in 97 1/3 innings). Pitching reinforcements from the farm don’t appear to be on the horizon.

That said, there are still plenty of teams with middle-infield needs and young pitching to dangle. The Red Sox are one club that comes to mind, but each of the White Sox, Angels, Braves and Orioles could use a second baseman and/or shortstop. Most of those clubs have interesting young pitching to offer in exchange, whether the Rox prefer an immediate rotation option or someone who could join the staff in 2024, when top prospects like Zac Veen, Drew Romo and the previously mentioned Tovar have a better chance at contributing.

Rockies fans and those who’ve followed the team in recent years know that the club doesn’t exactly have a reputation for selling players at peak value (or selling at all). The Rox famously held onto both Story and Jon Gray rather than cashing them in for prospects in their walk years. Gray was lost for nothing after the team declined to make a qualifying offer. Colorado declined to trade either Daniel Bard or C.J. Cron when both were rentals at recent deadlines, instead opting to extend both players. Owner Dick Monfort is fatally optimistic about his club’s chances of winning, and while it’s admirable to continually make win-now moves in the face of long-shot (at best) odds in the division, logically there should come a point where alternate paths need to be considered.

Based on their history, the Rockies probably aren’t going to be particularly amenable to Rodgers offers. Interested teams would need to pay a steep price to pry him away, and doing so would be a bet on his underlying batted-ball profile, his defensive skills and his knack for contact to manifest in a new level of performance. There’s certainly risk, but given the dearth of middle-infield options in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market, there are few other places for teams needing middle infield help to look. The Rockies aren’t going to contend in 2023, and three years of Rodgers could bring them some direly needed young pitching. Someone should make them an offer that even a typically conservative front office/ownership group would have a hard time refusing.

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

Free Agent Profile: Franmil Reyes

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Franmil Reyes had a solid four-year run from 2018 through 2021. He struck out at an unhealthy 29.5% rate, but he also walked in 9% of his plate appearances. He hit 92 home runs in 529 games and produced a batting line of .260/.325/.503. That production was 19% above league average, as evidenced by his 119 wRC+, a figure that placed him in the top 65 among qualified league hitters. He was also fairly consistent, with his wRC+ never slipping below 111 in any season of that stretch and topping out at 129.

He qualified for arbitration for the first time after that 2021 season and agreed to a $4.55MM salary with the Guardians. Unfortunately, his consistent offensive production got away from him for the first time in 2022. His strikeout rate ticked up to 33.2% while his walk rate dipped to 6.3%. His power also seemed to diminish, as he hit just 14 home runs on the year after being around a 30-per-year pace in the earlier portion of his career. He finished the season with a slash line of .221/.273/.365 and a wRC+ of 80, indicating he was 20% below the league average hitter.

That swoon at the plate was untenable for a player like Reyes since his bat is his only carrying tool. He doesn’t bring anything in the speed or defense departments. He has managed six stolen bases in his career but his sprint speed was in the 20th percentile among qualified players last year. Defensively, he got over 500 innings in the outfield in 2018 and 2019 but got poor results and has been sent out to the grass less often recently. He spent less than 100 innings out there in both 2021 and 2022.

Given his one-dimensional profile, he needs to be clicking at the plate to be valuable. His struggles were strong enough last year that the Guardians put him on waivers in August. The Cubs put in a claim and let him play out the string for them, but he was outrighted at season’s end and elected free agency.

There’s no denying that the 2022 season was rough, but it’s possible it was merely a blip. He still clobbered the ball despite his struggles, with Statcast placing him in the 92nd percentile in terms of average exit velocity last year. He also ranked in the 85th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity, 79th in hard hit rate and 80th in terms of barrel rate. It seems the tools are still there for some team that can find a better way of utilizing them.

It’s possible that the league changed its plan of attack against Reyes. According to Statcast, 33.7% of the pitches he saw in 2021 were breaking balls. That shot up to 40% in 2022, with fastballs and offspeed pitches coming across less often. Reyes posted a batting average of .219 against those breaking pitches in 2021 with a .521 slugging percentage, but those numbers dropped to .191 and .321 last year.

That change in approach could have been responsible for his increased strikeouts. His chase percentage went from 25.8% to 28.4%. Not only did he chase more, he did worse when he did. His chase contact rate went from 49.5% in 2021 to to just 36% last year. That came despite the fact that 50.4% of the pitches he saw were in the zone, a slight increase from the 48.1% rate of the year before. He also went up hacking throughout the year as his first pitch swing rate went to 34.5%, a few ticks above his 30% rate from the year before and the 29.5% league average. Perhaps he was getting more breaking balls to begin at-bats or he merely went up looking to smash a fastball before he got deeper into the count. Pitchers also threw 61.3% of first pitches in the zone, an uptick on the 55.4% clip from the year before. So, more first-pitch strikes, more first-pitch swings, but more strikeouts and less power.

While all this led to a pretty gloomy year for Reyes, it’s possible that he could adjust to this new plan of attack and get back to the hitter he was before. As mentioned, the tools still seem to be there in terms of crushing the ball. If he can alter his approach and get his strikeouts down a few points, it’s possible he could again be a feared middle-of-the-order slugger. The fact that Reyes is primarily a designated hitter surely limits his market, but there could still be fits. Even if Reyes can’t find a full-time job, serving as a bench bat and/or the short side of a platoon could be an option. He was equally poor against both righties and lefties in 2022 but has been stronger with the platoon advantage over his career, posting a 125 wRC+ against southpaws and a 104 otherwise.

For a rebuilding team like the Reds, they have a handful of lefties in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix, including TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley. While Joey Votto is questionable for Opening Day, that might leave first base open for players like Wil Myers and Tyler Stephenson, perhaps leaving some at-bats for Reyes. The Tigers currently have a strongly left-handed outfield with Austin Meadows, Riley Greene, Akil Baddoo and Kerry Carpenter all hitting from that side. Adding Reyes would further squeeze out Miguel Cabrera in what could be his final season, but he’s probably not ticketed for full-time duty anyway. The Rangers don’t really have a strict designated hitter right now, with Mitch Garver potentially playing there when healthy and not catching. Otherwise, left-hander Brad Miller and his career 67 wRC+ against lefties could be the frontrunner. The Diamondbacks have a lot of lefties and added Evan Longoria as a veteran righty. He’ll likely be DHing while splitting third base with Josh Rojas, but one injury elsewhere on the diamond means they’re both ticketed for everyday infield duty. The A’s have very few players locked into jobs, and some of their most-established guys are lefties like Seth Brown, Tony Kemp and Jace Peterson.

Nelson Cruz, another bat-only player, recently said he had received offers for 2023. He has a more impressive track record than Reyes but he’s going to turn 43 in the upcoming season and is also coming off a down year. Reyes will be turning 28 in July and shouldn’t cost much. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $6MM before being cut loose by the Cubs. The fact that Reyes cleared waivers and was outrighted suggests that no one wanted him at that price point and he could be signed for something beneath that figure. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2024 in the event he has a bounceback season, since he’s currently between four and five years of MLB service time. He even has options and could be sent down to the minors, though players who reach five years of service can’t be optioned without their consent. Reyes is at 4.115 and would cross that five-year threshold after a couple of months in the majors, since a new “year” starts at 172 days.

Looking Through The Guardians’ Outfield Possibilities

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The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.

There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.

Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.

Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.

Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).

Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.

Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.

It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.

Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.

If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.

Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.

A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.

Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.

A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.

That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.

While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.

Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.

Will Brewers’ Rotation Depth Lead To Houser Trade?

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The Brewers’ lone free-agent move of thee offseason thus far — a one-year, $4.5MM deal with lefty Wade Miley — became official this afternoon. Miley returns for a second stint with the Brewers in hopes of rebounding from an injury-marred 2022 season with the division-rival Cubs. It’s a pretty straightforward deal for a veteran pitcher in search of a rebound. The Brewers offered opportunity and some incentives based on innings to a pitcher who’s had success in Milwaukee once before (2.57 ERA in 16 starts back in 2018). Miley gives the Brewers some depth and the potential for bulk innings at the back of the rotation.

Somewhat curiously, the Brewers already seemed to have plenty of that. Miley’s contract quite likely locks him into the fifth spot in the rotation. The Brewers have maintained that they won’t trade either Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff this winter. Freddy Peralta is signed through 2024 with a pair of club options thereafter. Lefty Eric Lauer was second on the Brewers in terms of both innings pitched and games started in 2022, and while he had a rough finish to the year, there was a lengthy bit of time from summer of 2021 into the 2022 season where Lauer was one of the team’s best pitchers. He’s controlled another two years and seems unlikely to be moved.

That’s five starting pitchers, but the Brewers also signed young Aaron Ashby to a five-year, $20.5MM extension last season in the midst of his rookie campaign last year. That deal, which contains club options for the 2028-29 seasons, was clearly issued with the vision of Ashby pitching out of the rotation. Perhaps for the 2023 season, he’ll serve as a sixth starter and only be called upon to step into the rotation in the event of an injury, but he’s clearly in the long-term plan as a potential starter.

That brings the Brewers up to six rotation options, and that’s before considering right-hander Adrian Houser, who ranked fourth on the team in innings pitched and games started in 2022. Admittedly, 2022 wasn’t a great season for Houser, who limped to an uncharacteristic 4.73 ERA with a career-worst 15.2% strikeout rate and career-low 46.7% ground-ball rate.

Given those struggles from Houser and an uneven season for Ashby, it’s understandable if the Brewers wanted some low-cost stability at the back of the rotation. Miley can provide that, health permitting, but it doesn’t leave Houser with a clear role. He’s out of minor league options, and Ashby seems likelier to be ticketed for the long relief/swingman role over Houser. The Brewers even added an eighth rotation candidate — fellow out-of-options hurler Bryse Wilson — in a small swap with the Pirates. Wilson figures to be in the bullpen to begin the season, if he even makes it to Opening Day on the 40-man roster. For now, his presence gives the Brewers a trio of bullpen arms who operated primarily as starters in 2022.

Houser already throws decently hard (94.4 mph average four-seamer, 93.8 mph sinker in 2022), so it could be argued that he’s somewhat intriguing in a short relief role that might make his velocity tick up even further. But he also already agreed to a $3.6MM salary for the 2023 season, and that seems like a relatively expensive experiment for a Brewers team that declined a net $2.25MM salary for steady veteran reliever Brad Boxberger ($3MM option, $750K buyout).

Dropping Houser into short relief also overlooks the fact that from 2019-21, he was a solid member of the team’s rotation. He began the 2019 season in the ’pen but moved to the rotation and hardly looked back; overall 55 of Houser’s 75 outings in that time came as a starter. He made only three relief appearances in 2020-21. And, during that three-year period from 2019-21, he pitched to a combined 3.78 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate, a 9.3% walk rate and an outstanding 57% ground-ball rate. The strikeout rate was below-average, and the walk rate was a bit elevated, but fielding-independent marks like FIP (4.26) and SIERA (4.28) still felt Houser was plenty serviceable.

There’s no getting around the fact that the 2022 season was an ugly one for Houser, but he’s still an affordable 29-year-old right-hander (30 next month) with a career 3.97 ERA in 428 innings, most of which has come as a starter. He’s eligible for arbitration once more next winter and can become a free agent after the 2024 season. Houser alone isn’t going to change a team’s fortunes in the rotation, but he’s also very arguably as good a bet as the bulk of the remaining unsigned free agents. Certainly, he’ll cost less from a financial perspective, though he’d of course require a modest package of young talent or perhaps a bat in a similar square-peg/round-hole situation.

With Houser falling to at least sixth, if not seventh on the Brewers’ rotation depth chart, he stands out as a natural trade candidate. World Series hopefuls probably aren’t going to look at Houser and think he’s someone they can acquire and plug into a playoff rotation, but there are plenty of teams still on the lookout for solid innings at the back of their starting staff.

Even for a rebuilding team, it’s conceivable they could buy low on Houser now and then recoup most of that value, if not more, at the deadline or next offseason if he’s able to bounce back or partially reinvent himself under the tutelage of a new organization. (That’s not a knock on the Brewers specifically, but it’s common for new teams to alter pitch selection, arm slot, etc.) He could also help take the pressure off a team’s young starters and allow those less experienced arms to be eased into the Majors.

Given the constant need for pitching throughout the league, there’s no shortage of teams that could feasibly make sense as a Houser suitor. The Orioles, for instance, are still reportedly on the hunt for another veteran arm. General manager Mike Elias was in the Astros’ scouting department in 2011 when Houser was a second-round pick. The Red Sox are teeming with injury uncertainty thanks to the presence of Chris Sale and James Paxton. Most of the Tigers’ young pitchers have befallen some type of injury in the past calendar year. The Nationals could use some more support for young arms like Cade Cavalli and MacKenzie Gore. The Rockies’ rotation is a collection of question marks, and Colorado tends to value ground-ball pitchers.

That’s just a handful of speculative landing spots, and it’s a given that other needs will arise during Spring Training, when camps begin to open and pitchers are inevitably sidelined due to injury. If the Brewers don’t find any offers to their liking now, they can simply hold onto Houser and see how demand looks in two months’ time. It’s possible an in-house injury will alter the calculus for the Brewers themselves, too. The nice part is that while Houser may be a bit pricier than they’d prefer, given his lack of a clearly defined role, he’s also not so expensive that the Brewers need to urgently pursue trades to dump his salary.

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Brewers on the free-agent front, but Milwaukee has already swung seven trades under newly installed baseball operations leader Matt Arnold. Gone from the ’22 Brew Crew via trade are Kolten Wong, Esteury Ruiz and Justin Topa. Newcomers include William Contreras, Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro, Javy Guerra, the previously mentioned Bryse Wilson, Owen Miller and Payton Henry. Based on the rotation depth they have with Miley in the fold and the lack of minor league options for Houser, he’s a decent candidate to change hands and push Arnold’s trade count in his first offseason at the helm up to eight.

MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.

He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.

That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.

Mitch White

White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.

In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.

Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.

Nate Pearson

Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.

Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.

The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.

Thomas Hatch

Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.

Bowden Francis

Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.

However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.

At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.

Ricky Tiedemann

Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.

That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.

Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.

External Addition

It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.

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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!

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Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly.  He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.  Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training.  The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list.  He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021.  The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances.  One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021.  Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential.  He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season.  With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter.  Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium.  In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL.  Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery.  Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms.  Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal.  Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches.  Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

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