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Marlins To Promote Edward Cabrera

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The Marlins are promoting top pitching prospect Edward Cabrera to make his Major League debut Wednesday against the Nationals, per a club announcement (Twitter link, with video of Cabrera being informed he’s being called up to the Majors). Cabrera is already on the 40-man roster, so Miami will only need to make a corresponding 26-man roster move.

It’s been a monster season between Class-A Advanced, Double-A and Triple-A for the highly touted Cabrera, as evidenced by a combined 2.93 ERA and 36.9 percent strikeout rate in 61 1/3 innings. Cabrera was out earlier in the season due to an inflamed nerve in his right biceps — an injury that cost him the first two months of the season. He looks quite healthy now, having punched out 11 or more batters in three of his past four starts at the Triple-A level.

Cabrera, 23, is featured on virtually any ranking of the game’s top prospects one could find. He’s No. 30 on the midseason Top 100 over at MLB.com, No. 36 at The Athletic, No. 43 at FanGraphs and No. 74 at Baseball America. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel didn’t rank Cabrera in his Top 50 but listed him as one of “20 others who were considered.” Specific rankings aside, the broad-reaching consensus is that Cabrera is one of the most promising young arms in the sport.

Cabrera draws praise for a heater that sits in the 93-97 mph range but has scraped triple digits as well. He generates more grounders than whiffs with the fastball but complements it with a potentially plus slider and an improving changeup. Listed at 6’5″ and 217 pounds, he has the prototypical size and frame that many look for in ideal pitching prospects.

Based on the timing of his promotion, Cabrera will be controlled by the Marlins through at least the 2027 season. He’s being promoted late enough in the year that Super Two status is long since a consideration, although with any prospect promotion, it’s also key to note that future optional assignments could alter one or both of those trajectories. If Cabrera is in the Majors for the rest of the season, he’d accumulate 40 days of MLB service time, meaning he’d need just 132 days in the Majors in 2022 to reach a full year of service and remain on that post-2027 course for free agency.

Cabrera is the latest in a growing line of promising young Marlins starters to reach the Majors. While Miami is dealing with a handful of injuries at present, it’s hard for other clubs not to envy their collection of formidable arms. Cabrera joins Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers, deadline acquisition Jesus Luzardo, Elieser Hernandez and currently injured top prospect Sixto Sanchez among the team’s current core of rotation options, and there are several others behind them. Most notably, last year’s No. 3 overall pick, right-hander Max Meyer, has been nothing short of dominant in Double-A this season.

The Marlins’ system is deeper in arms than in high-end bats, so it remains possible that GM Kim Ng and her staff will look to capitalize on that group of arms and turn some of it into controllable young bats via the offseason trade market. Catcher and center field, in particular, are areas where the Marlins find themselves with a long-term need.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Braves Extend Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves announced Friday that they’ve signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a new two-year contract that guarantees him $16MM. The Wasserman client will earn $8MM in 2022 and in 2023, and there’s an $8MM club option for the 2024 season that does not have a buyout.

Travis d'Arnaud | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

That $16MM guarantee matches the guarantee on the current two-year deal that d’Arnaud is playing out in Atlanta. He’d been slated to return to the free-agent market at season’s end, but the new contract now locks him in as the organization’s top catcher for at least another two seasons.

Selected by the Phillies with the No. 37 overall pick back in 2007, d’Arnaud quickly became a top prospect who was involved in a pair of trades involving Cy Young winners — the first sending Roy Halladay from Toronto to Philadelphia and the second sending R.A. Dickey from the Mets to the Blue Jays.

After debuting as a 24-year-old in 2013, d’Arnaud would go on to spend parts of seven seasons playing with the Mets. He showed the promise that made him one of the game’s most highly regarded minor leaguers at times, particularly in 2016 when he batted .268/.340/.485. However, d’Arnaud’s time with the Mets was marred by repeated injuries. In addition to undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, d’Arnaud also spent time on the injured list with a concussion, a broken finger, a strained rotator cuff and an elbow sprain (a separate one from the sprain that led to his Tommy John surgery).

Despite playing in parts of seven seasons as a Met, d’Arnaud only topped 100 games twice. The Mets released d’Arnaud in May 2019, and after signing with the Dodgers and making a lone plate appearance there, he was traded to the Rays in exchange for cash. Tampa Bay needed catching help with several backstops on the injured list, and what looked to be a short-term depth addition instead turned into a breakout showing that set the stage for d’Arnaud to eventually be paid $32MM from 2020-23.

With the Rays, d’Arnaud stepped up as the primary catcher and enjoyed one of his best and most productive seasons. He appeared in 92 games and tallied 365 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, batting .263/.323/.459 with 16 long balls. He parlayed that strong showing into what is now the first of a pair of two-year, $16MM deals in Atlanta.

D’Arnaud’s first season in Atlanta, while shortened due to the pandemic, was the most productive of his career. He played 44 of the Braves’ 60 games at catcher and turned in a huge .321/.386/.533 with nine homers and eight doubles in 184 plate appearances. He went on to bat .286/.380/.476 in 50 postseason plate appearances.

Things haven’t gone as well in 2021, though that’s again due to injury. After a lackluster start to the season, d’Arnaud went on the injured list in early May with a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgical repair. He returned just nine days ago and has gone 5-for-21 with a home run and four walks in that brief time. Overall, he’s batting .223/.277/.369 through 112 plate appearances this year.

The d’Arnaud extension solidifies the team’s catching spot for the next two seasons, though it also serves as something of a roadblock for 23-year-old William Contreras, who is tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A this season. Contreras was originally promoted to the big league roster in the wake of d’Arnaud’s injury and got out to a strong start before fading badly. He batted just .204/.278/.387 in 158 Major League plate appearances this year but has posted a massive .313/.368/.583 slash (150 wRC+) with eight home runs in 125 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett.

Extending d’Arnaud gives the Braves the luxury of breaking Contreras in as a backup or part-time option, but it’s certainly possible that he’ll find himself in a larger role over the next two seasons. He’d likely be the first option in the event of an injury to d’Arnaud, and he could simply hit his way into a larger share of the workload behind the plate. The National League could very well have the designated hitter in place next season, which would give the Braves the option of getting both into the lineup at times.

Behind Contreras, the Braves have 23-year-old Shea Langeliers rising through the system. The No. 9 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Langeliers is regarded as one of the top game’s top all-around prospects and is enjoying a strong season in Double-A, where he’s batted .267/.346/.524 (136 wRC+). Langeliers likely wouldn’t be an option until midway through the 2022 season or even into 23, so the d’Arnaud extension isn’t necessarily a sizable deterrent to his ascension through the ranks.

Of course, locking d’Arnaud up for the foreseeable future also frees the Braves to explore the possibility of including one of Contreras or Langeliers as part of an offseason trade package to address other areas of need. A relatively modest two-year for d’Arnaud certainly doesn’t make a trade of one of the promising young backstops a fait accompli, but it’s easier to part with some of that upside if the Braves feel confident that there’s a steady veteran in house.

By signing d’Arnaud now, the Braves sidestep the issue of searching for a catcher on the offseason market. A win-now club in their shoes wasn’t likely to just hand over the starting job to Contreras in 2022 without a contingency plan in place, and the market for catching help looks fairly light. Yan Gomes and d’Arnaud were likely to be the only two starting-caliber options in free agency, assuming the Cardinals do indeed finalize the Yadier Molina extension they’re reportedly discussing at the moment. Gomes might ultimately command a comparable price, though, and the Braves have already established a relationship with d’Arnaud. They clearly value both his on- and off-field contributions to the club, so it’s sensible to keep him around at a price point that won’t significantly impede their offseason dealings.

Even with d’Arnaud now on the books at $8MM next year, the Braves have just shy of $64MM on the books in 2022. They’ll owe arbitration raises to several key players (Dansby Swanson, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Richard Rodriguez, Austin Riley) and still need to work out an extension for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman at some point. Even when factoring for a theoretical Freeman extension and arbitration raises, the Braves should still have more than $20MM — potentially quite a bit more, if a Freeman deal were to be backloaded — separating them from this year’s payroll level.

Cardinals, Yadier Molina Discussing Extension

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Aug. 20: Both Molina and the team are encouraged by the recent talks, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who adds that they’re making progress toward a deal.

Aug. 19: The Cardinals and catcher Yadier Molina are in talks on a one-year extension that would cover the 2022 season, per Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Molina is earning $9MM on his current one-year contract and is eyeing a guarantee of at least that same amount for next season.

Molina has spoken in the past of playing through his age-40 season, which would be the 2022 campaign. Re-signing him for the 2022 campaign would allow the Cards to use Molina and Andrew Knizner as bridges to catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who’s playing in Double-A as a 21-year-old this season.

Of course, a Molina extension would mean another year of rather sparse usage for the 26-year-old Knizner, who was a fairly well-regarded prospect himself but hasn’t had much of a look in the big leagues thanks to Molina’s heavy workload. Knizner is hitting .177/.295/.257 in 132 plate appearances this year and has just 207 total plate appearances since debuting in 2019.

The 39-year-old Molina, meanwhile, has racked up 353 plate appearances on the season and turned in a .256/.303/.378 batting line with eight home runs and 16 doubles, and he’s even gone 3-for-3 in stolen-base attempts — his first steals since the 2019 campaign. It’s a far cry from his peak production back in 2012, when he turned in an outstanding .315/.373/.501 slash and a career-high 22 home runs in 563 plate appearances, but this year’s production is more or less in line with Molina’s output in 2019-20. Molina’s 86 wRC+ indicates he’s been about 14 percent worse than a league-average hitter over that period of two-plus seasons, but his production is about in line with that of an average Major League catcher.

As usual, Molina has drawn standout marks for his defensive work this season. His 43 percent caught-stealing rate is 17 percent better than the 26 percent league average, and Defensive Runs Saved values him at plus-5 overall. Statcast and FanGraphs feel his framing work has dipped below average, but Molina rates about average in that category over at Baseball Prospectus and has a long track record of excellence in that regard.

Moreover, the Cardinals would surely value Molina’s influence over what can only be a younger pitching staff in 2022. The Cards have relied on a cast of mid- or late-30s starters this summer, due in part to injuries, but next year’s rotation ought to include Jack Flaherty, a returning Dakota Hudson (who’s been out all year after Tommy John surgery) and perhaps touted young arms like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Molina’s experience and general receiving skills would be an obvious bonus to any collection of young arms.

From a payroll vantage point, a contract worth $9MM-plus for Molina shouldn’t hamper the Cards’ ability to add this offseason. They currently have about $90MM in guaranteed contracts on the books, which is nearly $80MM shy of their current payroll. That mark doesn’t include forthcoming arbitration raises for Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes, Jordan Hicks, Giovanny Gallegos, Tyler O’Neill or the aforementioned Hudson, but even with those salary boosts the Cardinals will have tens of million in separation from their current payroll level.

It stands to reason that if the Cardinals are serious about hammering out another one-year deal with one franchise cornerstone, they’ll look to do so with the other franchise icon currently on the roster: Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old right-hander is in the midst of a brilliant season and seemingly showing no signs of slowing down. If he wants to continue his career beyond the current season, the front office will surely explore the possibility of keeping him a lifelong Cardinal.

Judge Denies Request For Permanent Restraining Order Against Trevor Bauer

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5:11 pm: As expected, Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended through August 27, per various reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times).

3:15 pm: Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Dianna Gould-Saltman issued a ruling today denying a long-term restraining order to the woman who has accused Trevor Bauer of sexual assault, per Steve Henson of the Los Angeles Times. The ruling brings to a close the civil hearing that has been ongoing throughout the current week.

Bauer did not testify at this week’s hearing, instead invoking his fifth amendment rights. He’s still the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation and of an investigation under Major League Baseball’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Bauer is currently on paid administrative leave, which is set to expire tomorrow. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that with criminal and MLB investigations still ongoing, that leave will likely once again be extended by mutual agreement between MLB and the Players Association.

There are several key points to be emphasized with regard to where things stand at present. As previously noted, Bauer is still the subject of multiple investigations. Today’s ruling was neither a declaration of Bauer’s innocence nor guilt with regard to the woman’s allegations. Rather, it was a ruling from the court that Bauer does not pose a continued threat to the alleged victim. Similarly, the determination that the accuser does not require long-term protection against Bauer is not legally reflective of his guilt or innocence; the alleged victim and the district attorney can still bring forth charges pursuant to Bauer’s purported actions.

Just as the absence of a restraining order does not preclude criminal charges, the ruling also does not preclude a suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball. The league’s sexual assault policy gives Manfred the power to implement a suspension even in the absence of criminal charges, as we’ve seen on numerous occasions where domestic violence charges were dropped by the alleged victims. It’s also unclear whether newly surfaced allegations from a woman in Ohio that date back to last summer will be factored into the league’s decision on any punitive measures against Bauer.

While today’s ruling represents a notable step in the process, it does not bring about anything in the way of resolution for Bauer or the Dodgers. The pitcher’s long-term outlook remains unclear, and the league could well wait until the criminal investigation (and any subsequent charges, if pressed) is resolved before determining whether to levy its own suspension.

MLB Reportedly Proposes $180MM First Luxury Tax Threshold, $100MM Salary Floor To MLBPA

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With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1, 2021, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have been in talks regarding the potential structure of the next CBA. MLB made its first core economic proposal to the MLBPA this week, report Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

MLB’s proposal included a lower threshold for taxes on team spending, with teams subject to a 25% tax on any spending above $180MM, report Drellich and Rosenthal. There would be three additional tax brackets at some point above that mark (for a total of four tax brackets), with the tax rate increasing as teams hit those higher overage levels. As a trade-off, MLB proposed that teams be subject to a $100MM salary minimum. MLB’s entire proposal was presented as a package deal as opposed to a series of one-by-one potential provisions.

For comparison’s sake, the current CBA contains three tiers of luxury tax penalization. For the 2021 season, the first tier begins at $210MM and contains a 20% tax on overages up through $230MM. There’s a 32% tax on overages between $230MM and $250MM and a 62.5% tax on any payments beyond $250MM. Those penalties escalate for teams that pay the tax in multiple consecutive seasons.

(Under the current CBA, a team’s luxury tax number is calculated by tabulating the average annual values of its financial obligations — not its actual payroll in any given season. It’s not clear whether MLB’s proposal would continue to be based on contracts’ AAV’s as opposed to current-year obligations).

The luxury tax has become an obvious deterrent to spending for most high-payroll teams. Only the Dodgers have been comfortable blowing by the thresholds to incur the loftiest penalties associated with the third bracket this season. Teams like the Padres, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and Astros all have CBT numbers hovering right around the $210MM lowest threshold and either contemplated or were seemingly dead-set upon avoiding the tax during their offseason and trade deadline maneuvering. Of that group, it seems only San Diego might have exceeded the threshold by a narrow margin, although it’s not yet clear that’s the case. Even if the Friars did go over the first threshold, they didn’t exceed it by enough to incur particularly meaningful financial penalties this year.

Given that the luxury tax has served as a de facto salary cap for some of the league’s top spenders, it doesn’t seem likely the MLBPA will be particularly enamored with the idea of lowering that first threshold such a substantial amount. Indeed, it’s widely expected the MLBPA will be pushing for a dramatic increase to those thresholds during the current session of CBA talks. MLB also offered the union an option to leave the luxury tax status quo, report Drellich and Rosenthal, although it’s not clear what other conditions would be involved in that scenario.

MLB is obviously aware that getting the MLBPA’s assent on lower tax thresholds will be extremely difficult (if not impossible). That’s likely the reason for the inclusion of the proposed salary floor, with the league reasoning that setting a minimum payroll would increase some teams’ spending and more equally divide team payrolls for competitive balance reasons. Twelve teams (Pirates, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Rays, Mariners, Tigers, A’s, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks and Brewers) entered the 2021 season with an actual payroll below $100MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. (Seven had an estimated luxury tax payroll below $100MM). The league’s proposal contained some method of redistributing tax money collected from the higher spenders to spur spending among those lowest-payroll clubs, Drellich and Rosenthal report.

Of course, there’s plenty about the league’s proposal that’s unknown. Drellich and Rosenthal note that it’s unclear how the league would penalize teams that don’t reach the spending minimum, or even in what season that minimum would go into effect. It’s also debatable whether the presence of a salary floor would actually increase free agent spending or truly disincentivize teams from conducting long-term rebuilds. It’s equally easy to envision a low-payroll rebuilder acquiring an underperforming veteran player on an expensive contract — along with prospect talent — from a high-payroll club looking to duck under the tax threshold.

For instance, the Padres and Rangers reportedly had pre-deadline discussions about a deal that would’ve sent first baseman Eric Hosmer (who’s on an eight-year, $144MM contract) and top outfield prospect Robert Hassell III to Texas to acquire Joey Gallo. That obviously didn’t come to fruition, but it’s a useful illustration of the creative ways teams could work around the lower tax thresholds/salary floor. The Rangers picking up Hosmer would’ve pushed their payroll up over $100MM while shedding money from San Diego’s books — without having any direct impact on the free agent market.

Of course, there’s still a few months for the two sides to bandy about proposals before the expiration of the current CBA. The MLBPA made its first proposal back in May, report Drellich and Rosenthal, with one emphasis being on earlier arbitration eligibility for younger players.

There’s obviously a significant amount of each proposal that hasn’t yet been made public. Drellich’s and Rosenthal’s report sheds some early light on both sides’ vision for the long-term future of the sport, but there’ll be plenty more back-and-forth between the league and the MLBPA over the coming months in what’s widely expected to be a fairly contentious negotiation. The full piece is worth a perusal for subscribers to the Athletic interested in the sport’s labor dynamics.

Blue Jays Place George Springer On Injured List

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Aug. 18: Springer has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 sprain in his left knee, the Blue Jays announced. While it’s encouraging that he’s dealing with a low-grade sprain, it’s still not clear when the Jays expect him to be able to return to the field.

Aug. 17: The Blue Jays are placing outfielder George Springer on the 10-day injured list with a sprained left knee, manager Charlie Montoyo announced to reporters (Twitter link via TSN’s Scott Mitchell). Springer recently complained of discomfort in his knee, and an MRI revealed the current issue. There’s no timetable being provided for his return at the moment. Toronto is calling up infield/outfield prospect Otto Lopez to replace Springer on the active roster.

It’s a major blow to the Blue Jays, particularly given the lack of timeline on Springer’s return. The 31-year-old slugger inked a franchise-record six-year, $150MM contract with the Jays over the winter and has spent considerable time on the IL this season owing to a prior quadriceps strain. He’s looked every bit like the high-end slugger the Jays hoped to be acquiring when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, however; in 49 games and 211 plate appearances, Springer has posted a .269/.362/.610 batting line with 16 home runs, 12 doubles, a triple and a pair of steals.

Springer’s return to the injured list likely means the Jays will go with a combination of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Corey Dickerson and Lopez between the outfield and designated hitter slots in the lineup. The trio of Gurriel, Grichuk and Hernandez was quite productive early in the 2021 campaign while Springer mended that quad injury, but Grichuk’s bat has wilted considerably over the past couple months. Still, he’s the only real center field option on the roster at present, although the Jays could select the recently acquired Mallex Smith to the MLB roster as an alternative.

Lopez, 22, ranks as the Blue Jays’ No. 23 prospect over at FanGraphs and has enjoyed a strong season split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 359 plate appearances, mostly coming in Double-A, he’s slashed .324/.398/.451 with three home runs, 25 doubles, three triples and a dozen stolen bases (in 15 tries).

Springer’s new injury comes at a time when the Jays are nine games over the .500 mark but nevertheless eight games behind the division-leading Rays in the American League East. They’re a more manageable four games out of the hunt for the second AL Wild Card spot. The loss of Springer, even for a short time, puts a serious dent in their hopes of overcoming that deficit. Eleven of Toronto’s next 15 games come against clubs with sub-.500 records, but Springer’s absence will surely be quite palpable.

Dodgers Sign Shane Greene To Major League Deal

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11:30 am: Los Angeles is indeed signing Greene to a major league contract, reports Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (on Twitter).

11:12 am: The Dodgers are nearing agreement with free agent reliever Shane Greene on a major league contract, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The 32-year-old was released by the Braves over the weekend. Greene is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Despite quality work between 2019-20, Greene remained on the free agent market over the entirety of last offseason. That was a bit surprising but perhaps explainable by the difference in the right-hander’s run prevention numbers and peripherals. Greene pitched to an elite 2.39 ERA across 90 1/3 innings between those two seasons, but that came with a slightly below-average 23.5% strikeout rate. The disconnect is even more stark when looking at 2020 alone; his ERA was a still-great 2.60, but his strikeout percentage dipped to 19.3%. Teams clearly seemed reluctant to buy into Greene as a high-end late innings option despite his success keeping runs off the board.

The 2021 season has been a disaster no matter which metric one uses to evaluate pitcher performance. Signed to a big league deal by Atlanta in May, Greene was called up in early June after spending a few weeks in Triple-A to build up arm strength. He tossed seventeen innings for the Braves but was tagged for sixteen runs (an 8.47 ERA) on 22 hits, including five homers. Greene’s 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk percentage aren’t too different from last season’s marks, but he’s seen his groundball rate fall to a career-low 30.4% and served up far too much hard contact.

Clearly, the Dodgers feel his horrible 2021 numbers to date don’t reflect that Greene’s ability to be effective has disappeared. It’s a rather limited amount of time for a pitcher who had a multi-year track record of success before this season. Greene didn’t have a typical offseason ramp-up period because of his protracted stay in free agency. Perhaps most importantly, the velocity and spin on his sinker and cutter are nearly identical between 2020 and 2021. With his raw stuff still intact, Greene could be primed for a bounceback under a new coaching staff and environment in L.A.

There’s no financial risk for the Dodgers in taking that chance. The Braves will remain on the hook for the bulk of Greene’s prorated $1.5MM salary, with the Dodgers paying the veteran just the prorated league minimum for the stretch run (which will be subtracted from Atlanta’s payroll). The 32-year-old will hit the open market again at the end of the season.

Dodgers’ Cole Hamels Out For Season With Shoulder Injury

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9:39 pm: Hamels felt shoulder pain during a recent simulated game, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

9:17 pm: The Dodgers announced they’ve selected the contract of veteran reliever Neftalí Féliz. To create space on the 40-man roster, they placed left-hander Cole Hamels on the 60-day injured list. The move ends Hamels’ season before he could make an official appearance. Hamels recently suffered some form of arm injury, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

Additionally, Los Angeles recalled right-handed pitching prospect Andre Jackson to make his major league debut. Jackson was selected to the 40-man roster over the offseason to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, so no corresponding move was needed in that regard. To open active roster space, Darien Núñez and Edwin Uceta were optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Hamels missed almost all of last season with the Braves dealing with triceps and shoulder issues. He stayed on the free agent market for the entire offseason and the first half of the 2021 campaign before conducting a showcase in mid-July. That led to a one-year, $1MM deal with the Dodgers two weeks ago, with the hope that Hamels could build up as a late-season rotation option for Los Angeles. Unfortunately, he’s now dealing with another injury that’ll keep him from taking the mound in 2021.

There’ll surely be forthcoming updates on Hamels’ specific diagnosis and outlook. It’s not clear whether this latest issue stands to affect his readiness for the 2022 campaign. The 37-year-old will again hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll surely need to conduct another showcase for teams if he’s able and decides to pursue opportunities this winter.

What is clear is that Hamels’ setback will remove another potential starting pitching option for the Dodgers down the stretch. Los Angeles trails the Giants by four games in the NL West, and they were already without Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Danny Duffy and Tony Gonsolin due to injury (as well as Dustin May, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May). Kershaw, notably, did play catch today for the first time since being shut down due to forearm soreness (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), although he’s still not expected back until September.

Féliz is back in the majors for the second time this season. The former All-Star appeared in two games for the Phillies in late June, his first big league action in four years. Féliz was tagged for four runs in an inning of work with Philadelphia before being let go. The 33-year-old latched on with the Dodgers on a minor league deal shortly thereafter.

The veteran righty has spent the past six weeks at Oklahoma City, pitching his way back to the bigs with a 3.38 ERA across 18 2/3 innings. That’s a continuation of the stellar work he logged at the minors’ highest level with the Phillies’ affiliate in Lehigh Valley. Between the two organizations, Féliz has a 2.45 ERA in Triple-A with a huge 38.8% strikeout rate and an average 9.7% walk percentage.

Jackson, meanwhile, is one of the better pitching prospects in the Dodgers’ system. He fell to the twelfth round in the 2017 draft after undergoing Tommy John surgery during his final season at the University of Utah, where he spent more time as an outfielder than he did on the mound. The righty made his professional debut the following year and struggled with his control, but he had a breakout 2019 season split between two levels of A-ball.

Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Jackson among the Dodgers’ top fifteen minor leaguers either before or during the 2021 season. Evaluators praise his four-pitch mix and athleticism, with a general expectation he’ll continue to improve due to his relative lack of experience as a pitcher.

The 24-year-old has spent most of the year with Double-A Tulsa, pitching to 3.27 ERA across 63 1/3 innings. Jackson punched out a strong 29.6% of opponents while walking a career-low 7.9% of batters faced to earn his first big league call.

Padres Sign Jake Arrieta

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The Padres are taking a flier on Jake Arrieta, announcing a deal with the veteran right-hander this afternoon. While San Diego technically inked Arrieta to a minor league contract, the club announced they plan to formally select him to the big league roster on Wednesday, when he’ll get make his team debut with a start against the Rockies. San Diego already has a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard unless they add somebody to the roster in the intervening two days. Arrieta is repped by the Boras Corporation.

San Diego suddenly finds itself desperate for innings — a scenario few would’ve anticipated after an offseason in which the Friars acquired Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove to strengthen a rotation that already looked to have a fair bit of depth. However, Darvish was placed on the injured list yesterday owing to back issues, and the Padres are also currently without Chris Paddack (oblique strain), Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation, hip surgery) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Touted prospect MacKenzie Gore hasn’t pitched in a game since June 13, as he was sent back to the team’s Spring Training complex to work on mechanical issues not long after.

Arrieta will give the Padres a veteran option to soak up some innings, but the extent of his struggles with the Cubs underscore the dire nature of the need for arms in San Diego at the moment. While Arrieta got out to a nice start after signing a one-year, $6.5MM deal to return to the Cubs, his production cratered after a handful of solid outings to begin the season.

Arrieta pitched to a 2.57 ERA through his first five starts but has since been shellacked for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings. He completed six innings just one time in those 15 outings and completed five frames in just six of them. And while a few poor outings can always skew a few months’ worth of numbers, that isn’t necessarily the case here; Arrieta allowed at least four runs in 10 of those 15 starts. This year’s 90.8 mph average fastball is the lowest of his career and represents a two mile-per-hour drop from last year’s levels.

Of course, Arrieta was once one of the game’s best arms. He followed up a strong first half in 2015 with a historically dominant second half, cruising to a National League Cy Young Award and a sixth-place finish in NL MVP voting. He went on to throw a shutout in his postseason debut in 2015. That was followed by All-Star campaign in 2016, which featured 197 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball, and Arrieta posted a 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason frames as the Cubs marched to a World Series victory. Broadly speaking, he was one of the primary drivers behind the Cubs’ transformation into a perennial contender during his initial run there.

That all feels like a distant memory after three lackluster years in Philadelphia, an elbow surgery, and this year’s unsuccessful Wrigley reunion. The Padres will hope a change of scenery can lead to some late-season lightning in a bottle, but the mounting number of rotation injuries has left their grip on the second NL Wild Card spot feeling more tenuous than ever. What was a six-game lead over the Reds as recently as July 27 has been whittled away to a 2.5-game lead over their closest competitors in Cincinnati.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides were close to a deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the Padres were among the teams with interest in Arrieta. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the sides had an agreement and that Arrieta would get the start on Wednesday. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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