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Christian Vázquez Reportedly Progressing Towards Deal With Unknown Team

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The market for catcher Christian Vázquez is “heating up” and he’s making progress towards a deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Per Cotillo, it’s unclear if the Red Sox are still involved.

It appears that the dominos are falling in the catching market. The top free agent, Willson Contreras, was signed by the Cardinals a few days ago. Earlier today, the top trade option came off the board when Sean Murphy was traded to Atlanta. Now it seems that teams are quickly turning to Vázquez, generally considered the second-best free agent this offseason behind Contreras.

Now 32, Vázquez has been the primary backstop in Boston for most of the past few years, though he was traded to the Astros at the deadline in the most recent season. His bat has been up and down over his career but his work behind the plate has been praised fairly consistently. From 2014 to the present, he has posted 51 Defensive Runs Saved, which places him fifth among all backstops in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric has given him a 60.5 in that same timeframe, good enough for sixth place.

While Vázquez is sure to provide solid work with the glove, his production with the bat is less certain. Over 2019 and 2020, he hit .278/.327/.472 for a wRC+ of 105. That seemed to be a nice breakout after a few years of more tepid work in the batter’s box. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to maintain it, dropping to a line of .265/.311/.374 over the past two years for a wRC+ of 87.

Regardless, he still was the second catcher on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents for this offseason, getting predicted for a three-year deal worth $27MM. It was reported a few days ago that the Twins made him an offer, while he’s also been connected to the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres and Giants with plenty of other clubs surely interested as well. For any clubs that miss out on Vázquez, the remaining free agents would include Omar Narváez, Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges, while the trade market is now headlined by the Toronto of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno.

A’s Designate Vimael Machín For Assignment

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The A’s have designated infielder Vimael Machín for assignment, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. Machín is a casualty of today’s blockbuster deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta with five players going to Oakland.

Machín, 29, came over to the A’s by way of the Rule 5 draft, being plucked from the Cubs in 2019. Since then, he has played in 112 big league games with the A’s over the past three seasons. He hasn’t hit much in that time, as his career batting line currently sits at .208/.290/.261 for a wRC+ of 66. He’s fared much better in the minors though, having hit .307/.394/.470 over the past two seasons. The Las Vegas Aviators play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but that production was still 18% above league average, as evidenced by his 118 wRC+.

Defensively, Machín brings a lot of versatility to the table, having played all four infield positions in the majors, though most of that has been at third base. In the minors, he’s also had some brief time in the outfield and even in both ends of the battery.

The A’s will now have one week to work out a trade or else put Machín on waivers. He was outrighted in April but selected back onto the club’s roster in June. By virtue of that previous outright, he would have the right to elect free agency if he were to clear waivers. However, given his versatility and strong offensive work in the minors, it’s possible another team could put in a claim. He still has two option years remaining and could thus be kept in the minors as depth once the season begins.

Marlins Have Made Offer To Justin Turner

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The Marlins have made an offer to free-agent corner infielder Justin Turner, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. There are other teams interested, per the report, but Miami’s offer is generally viewed as a “competitive” one. In addition to the Marlins, Turner has received interest from the incumbent Dodgers — who declined a $16MM club option on him — as well as the Diamondbacks.

Turner, 38, would give the Marlins a direly needed right-handed bat to help with the team’s miserable production against left-handed pitching. Miami was the worst team in baseball against lefties in 2022, and it wasn’t particularly close, as Marlins hitters turned in a .208/.273/.325 batting line versus southpaws. That resulted in a 71 wRC+, which trailed the 29th-ranked D-backs by a measure of 10 points and suggested that Miami hitters were 29% worse than league average against lefties (after weighting for home park and league environment).

As such, a veteran of Turner’s stature would be a massive boon to Miami’s run-scoring potential. The longtime Dodgers slugger posted a .275./349/.389 batting line against lefties in 2022 and carries a stout .276/.358/.460 output against left-handed pitchers over the course of a 14-year career in the Majors. Setting aside his platoon splits, Turner batted .278/.350/.438 in 2022 (123 wRC+) and has been at least 23% better than league average at the plate in each season dating back to 2014.

With the Marlins, the expectation would be that Turner would split his time between third base, first base and designated hitter. Turner has scarcely played first base in the Majors, logging just 238 innings in his career — none since 2016. He’s long been a solid third baseman, but his defensive grades have begun to dwindle in his late 30s, and the Dodgers used him at designated hitter in about half of his 128 games in 2022. Each of Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.1) and Outs Above Average (-2) panned Turner’s glovework at the hot corner in 574 innings, although while each mark was below-average, none painted him as a complete liability, either.

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Marlins, who’ve done little to address their roster outside of a trade for Rays reliever JT Chargois. The offense, which ranked 24th in the Majors in homers (144), 28th in runs scored (586), 26th in batting average (.230), 27th in on-base percentage (.294) and 28th in slugging percentage (.363) could stand upgrades at multiple positions.

It’s not quite clear just how much Miami has to spend this winter, but Mish and Jackson suggest Miami was willing to put forth an offer in the neighborhood of two years and $40MM for Jose Abreu before he signed with the Astros, suggesting that general manager Kim Ng has at least some leeway in her pursuits of veteran free agents.

The Marlins are projected by Roster Resource to trot out an Opening Day payroll in the neighborhood of $95MM at the moment. Turner would likely add more than $10MM to that figure, pushing the Marlins close to the franchise’s $115MM Opening Day record, set back in 2017 under former owner Jeffrey Loria.

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Pirates Notes: Reynolds, Bednar, Catchers

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Even after Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from the Pirates, the team has given no indication of plans to shop him. General manager Ben Cherington called Reynolds’ request “disappointing” but immediately added that the request could have “zero impact” on the team’s approach to its All-Star center fielder. That appears to be the case, as while several clubs have inquired on Reynolds in the days since his trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the asking price is still through the roof — so much so that execs with three other clubs cast strong doubt on the chances of him actually being moved, per the report.

High asking prices are nothing new for the Pirates when it comes to Reynolds, though many onlookers might’ve wondered whether Reynolds’ request for a trade would grease the wheels on a transaction finally coming to fruition. It only ever takes one team to budge on the right prospect and/or make an unexpectedly strong offer, so situations such as this one can change quickly if circumstance dictate.

As it stands, however, Bucs seem intent on holding to the sky-high asking prices they’ve set on Reynolds in the past. The Seattle Times reported last year that Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds when the Mariners asked at the 2021 trade deadline began with then-prospect Julio Rodriguez. The Miami Herald indicated last spring that Pittsburgh asked the Marlins for 2021 first-rounder Kahlil Watson, 2020 first-rounder Max Meyer and additional pieces. Both Watson and Meyer were consensus top-75 prospects in all of baseball at that point.

The calculus has inherently changed at least slightly since those reported asking prices, if only because Reynolds has inched closer to free agency. That said, he’s still under Pirates control for another three seasons, set to earn $6.75MM in 2023 before a pair of arbitration raises in 2024 and 2025. He’s also fresh off yet another strong season in which he slashed .262/.345/.461 (125 wRC+) with a career-high 27 home runs. Reynolds’ rate stats are down a bit from his brilliant 2021 season, though that’s at least partially due to a sluggish start in 2022; he finished the year quite strongly.

In all likelihood, Reynolds will continue to serve as one of the most oft-speculated and simultaneously least-attainable names on the trade market. It’s old hat for the 27-year-old by now, as he’s been the focus of trade pursuits for the bulk of his big league career. Such is the life of a young star on a rebuilding Pirates team, as both Reynolds and teammate David Bednar can attest. However, while Reynolds has at least looked to engineer his own exit from the perennial deluge of trade rumblings, Bednar has done no such thing. As Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, Bednar didn’t outwardly clamor for a long-term deal when asked about signing an extension but strongly implied he hopes to stay:

“I think you guys know how I feel about Pittsburgh. I love this place more than anything. But that’s the business part of it. I’m not worried about that. I’m just worried about getting outs for the whole season.”

It’s only natural that Bednar’s response would be one of affection for the city of Pittsburgh. He was, after all, born in Pittsburgh and raised in the area, attending nearby Mars Area High School before going to college in Easton — closer to Philadelphia. His family still lives in the Pittsburgh area.

Acquired from the Padres in the trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego, Bednar has quickly emerged as one of the National League’s best relievers, pitching to a combined 2.40 ERA (2.57 FIP, 2.73 SIERA) with a huge 32.7% strikeout rate against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings with the Pirates. He moved into the closer’s role in 2022, saving a career-best 19 games, and has averaged just shy of 97 mph on his heater since being acquired by his hometown club. He comes with even more team control than Reynolds, as he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until the 2026-27 offseason. Teams have understandably placed plenty of inquiries, but the Pirates have (also understandably) set a lofty asking price on Bednar, just as with Reynolds.

While fans of baseball’s other 29 teams might be focused on who the Pirates might trade away, be it this offseason or next summer, Pittsburgh fans are more keenly focused on just how the Bucs might continue adding pieces this winter. The Pirates have already signed Carlos Santana, Vince Velasquez and Jarlin Garcia to one-year contracts as they look to improve their 2023 roster, and they’ll surely need to factor a catcher (or multiple catchers) into that equation.

Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic suggested recently that the Pirates plan to not only add a new starting catcher but also a backup in the weeks ahead. Top prospect Endy Rodriguez is the only catcher on the 40-man roster at the moment, and well-regarded as the 22-year-old switch-hitter may be, he’s played in all of 37 games above A-ball.

In 2022, the Pirates leaned on a combination of Jason Delay, Roberto Perez, Tyler Heineman, Andrew Knapp and Michael Perez behind the plate, creating a revolving-door effect that the team likely wishes to avoid in the future. Part of that was due to a May hamstring injury for Perez, which required surgery and ended the two-time Gold Glove winner’s season far earlier than anticipated. There’s been some mutual interest in the Bucs re-signing Perez, but Pittsburgh also reportedly has shown interest in former division rival Tucker Barnhart.

There are myriad options available in free agency, in addition to a few high-profile names on the trade market (e.g. Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen). However, with Rodriguez and 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis rising through the system, the Pirates are likely content to add some stopgap options while a pair of potential catchers of the future continue to develop in the upper minors.

Guardians Sign Josh Bell

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December 12: The Guardians have made it official, announcing that they have signed Bell to a two-year deal.

December 6: The Guardians have agreed to a two-year, $33MM contract with free-agent first baseman Josh Bell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Bell, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be able to opt out of the contract after the first season of the deal.

Josh Bell

It’s a short-term but lucrative annual deal for the 30-year-old Bell, who looked poised for a long-term commitment in free agency before a sluggish finish to the season following a trade to the Padres. The veteran switch-hitter opened the season on a tear with the Nationals and maintained that production into late July, but after slashing .301/.384/.493 with the Nats (143 wRC+), Bell hit just .192/.316/.271 in San Diego.

Ups and downs are nothing new for Bell, who at multiple points in his career has appeared on the cusp of solidifying himself as a star-caliber slugger, only to fall into a prolonged slump. Back in the first half of the 2019 season, for instance, the former No. 61 overall draft pick erupted with a .302/.376/.648 batting line and 27 home runs. That netted him what remains the only All-Star nomination of his career, but following the Midsummer Classic, Bell backtracked with a solid but unspectacular .233/.351/.429 slash.

His offensive doldrums spiraled out of control in 2020, when he turned in a career-worst .226/.305/.364 slash in the shortened 2020 season. Following that disappointing campaign, the Pirates sold low on the former top prospect by flipping his final two years of club control to the Nationals in exchange for righty Wil Crowe and minor leaguer Eddy Yean.

A month into Bell’s Nationals tenure, it looked to be more of the same, but he righted the ship in May. From May 1, 2021 through this year’s trade deadline, Bell came to the plate 945 times and recorded a stout .289/.373/.489 slash with 39 big flies, 46 doubles, an 11.5% walk rate and a 15.3% strikeout rate that’s far lower than many would expect from a 6’4″, 255-pound first baseman with 30-homer power.

In spite of that sizable frame and the clear raw power Bell possesses, however, he’s never really been a consistent power threat — at least not to the extent one would expect. The juiced-ball season in 2019 was his lone 30-homer campaign (37, to be exact), and his season-to-season home run totals have otherwise ranged between 12 (2018) and 27 (2021).

It’s hard not to wonder what might happen were Bell to commit to elevating the ball more, but that’s easier said than done for any hitter. Bell’s enormous 49.9% ground-ball rate is far higher than one would expect for a slugger of his stature, and he’s taken that mark north of 50% in each of the past three seasons, topping out with a mammoth 55.7% grounder rate in 2022. Since 2020, only five hitters in baseball have put the ball on the ground more frequently than Bell — a confounding trait for a switch-hitter with plus raw power. Three different teams have been unable to coax consistent power production from Bell, but the Guardians will give their best effort to unlock his maximum potential.

To be clear, Bell remains a well above-average hitter in the aggregate, even with the glut of grounders and a career punctuated thus far by peaks and valleys. Dating back to 2019, he’s been 20% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+, and his career mark in that regard sits at 116 (16% better than average). Bell is a lifetime .262/.351/.459 hitter whose only below-average season at the plate came in the shortened 2020 season.

Also appealing to the Guardians was surely the fact that Bell, like so much of their team, is exceedingly difficult to strike out. No team in baseball fanned at a lower clip than the Guardians’ 18.2% last year — nor was anyone particularly close. Bell, who struck out at just a 15.8% rate in 2022, should fit right in. He’s kept his strikeout rate at 19% or lower each season other than that grisly 2020 campaign, and he’s also drawn walks in an excellent 11.8% of his 3406 career plate appearances.

All of that aligns well with Cleveland’s general offensive philosophy, and while it seems that Jose Abreu was the Guards’ first choice — Cleveland reportedly made him a three-year offer before he signed in Houston — Bell still adds some needed thump who can join Josh Naylor in splitting time at designated hitter and first base. Bell isn’t an all-world defender at first, but he’s improved his defensive ratings from sub-par to slightly above average in recent seasons, and the Guardians surely feel confident that he’s a reliable source of at least 15 to 20 homers with a robust on-base percentage. He’ll join Jose Ramirez as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order threat, continuing to give the Cleveland lineup plenty of balance.

If things go according to plan and Bell can ward off another prolonged slump to close out the season, he’ll be a strong candidate to exercise that opt-out provision and return to the open market a year from now. As previously laid out, the overall offensive track record for Bell is quite strong; had he not fallen into that San Diego swoon, he and Boras might have had a case for a contract upwards of five years in length. Depending on the extent of Bell’s success, the Guardians could even issue him a qualifying offer upon opting out.

We predicted that Bell would still be able to command a four-year deal around this AAV on our Top 50 free agent rankings, but the two-year term and opt-out provides some of the best of both worlds. If Bell performs well, he can collect a hearty salary in 2022 and try again for a lengthier deal a year from now. If not, he’ll at least have a second season around the going rate for a bat-first slugger of this nature. And, even if he forgoes the opt-out next offseason, a strong 2024 showing could position him for a multi-year deal.

From a payroll vantage point, Cleveland had ample room to plug him into the mix — history of low payrolls notwithstanding. Bell, assuming an even distribution of his $33MM guarantee, pushes the Guardians to just $35.3MM in guaranteed salary next season. Add in another $35.7MM in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players (tip of the cap to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Guardians will sit around the $87MM mark next season — at least as things currently stand.

The Guardians opened the 2021 season with just a $49.6MM payroll and were at $68.2MM to begin the 2022 campaign, but they won the AL Central in ’22 and are only five years removed from trotting out an Opening Day payroll of nearly $135MM. At least on paper, there should be room to make further additions, though that’ll depend on ownership’s willingness to further ramp up payroll as they look to repeat in a weak division.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

Giants Continuing Rodon Pursuit Even After Manaea Deal

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The Giants’ agreement with lefty Sean Manaea appeared to give them a full rotation, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that even after guaranteeing Manaea $25MM over the next two years (with an opt-out after year one), San Francisco remains engaged with Rodon and agent Scott Boras about a potential reunion.

Manaea, 31 in February, can join Logan Webb, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani in comprising a prototypical five-man rotation, but there ought to be room for Rodon on the roster even with that quintet in place. That’s true both because Rodon is a clear upgrade over the majority (arguably all five) of those in-house arms, and also because the internal group comes with a fair bit of injury risk and health uncertainty.

DeSclafani, for instance, was limited to just 19 innings this past season, thanks to a tendon injury in his ankle that eventually required surgical repair. Each of Wood, Cobb and Webb made at least 26 starts, but Cobb and Wood also have lengthy injury histories. Cobb pitched just 158 total innings from 2019-21, owing to groin, back and wrist strains. Wood has made 26 starts in consecutive seasons now, but he pitched just 12 2/3 innings in 2020 and just 35 2/3 innings in 2019 due to back and shoulder injuries. Even Webb, who worked a team-high 192 1/3 innings in 2022, missed a few weeks in 2021 while battling a minor shoulder strain.

No team can be realistically expected to navigate an entire 162-game season with only five starters. While the Giants have some depth with swingman Jakob Junis and minor leaguers Sean Hjelle, Thomas Szapucki, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn all on the 40-man roster, they also have ample payroll space to make a Rodon-sized splash and figure out the allotment of innings at a later date. Roster Resource projects a $151MM payroll for the upcoming season and a luxury-tax ledger that’s a bit higher ($168.3MM) but nowhere near the first tier of penalization, which begins at $233MM in 2023.

Rodon was reported earlier in the offseason to be seeking a six-year deal worth more $30MM-plus on an annual basis, and Slusser more recently reported that he and Boras have been seeking at least seven years. What’s not clear is whether that shift in length of desired contract comes with a shift in the per-year asking price. We’ve seen teams this offseason increasingly show a willingness to stretch contracts to greater lengths as a means of tamping down AAV. Clubs had been moving away from longer-term, lower-AAV deals for some time — Bryce Harper being a notable exception — instead showing a preference for shorter-term deals at high annual values. That hasn’t been the case this winter, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo and Jacob deGrom all signing lengthier deals than expected but at lesser annual rates of pay than their highest-paid peers at their respective positions.

Put more simply, if Rodon and Boras set out seeking $180-200MM in total guarantees this winter but were having difficulty finding that, it’s at least possible that the shift toward a deal of seven-plus years in length might be more about reaching that $180MM-plus benchmark than about now seeking seven years at $30MM-plus per season. A seven-year deal worth $185MM, as a purely speculative example, wouldn’t line up with the previously reported AAV target for Rodon but would ensure his place among the ten highest-compensated free agent pitchers in MLB history.

Of course, anything in that vicinity would still shatter most industry expectations heading into the offseason. Two months ago, the most common question regarding Rodon was if he’d done enough to secure a sixth guaranteed year or would need to “settle” for a five-year contract. While reports of Rodon pursuing six, seven or even more years at or near the $30MM AAV threshold don’t serve as a guarantee that he’ll eventually reach those heights, they still represent a departure from where his market was expected to land.

In many ways, that’s a microcosm of the free-agent market at large since the offseason ended. Teams have been willing to spend far more freely than in recent winters, as last March’s collective bargaining agreement assured five years of labor peace and also gave front offices and owners clarity on where the luxury-tax thresholds will sit for the foreseeable future.

Beyond Rodon, the Giants are also known to be keenly interested in shortstop Carlos Correa — their top target after missing on free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge. Whether they’re willing to pony up and make commitments to both Rodon and Correa isn’t clear, though it’d certainly register as a surprise, as that pairing could wind up costing something in the range of $450-500MM combined.

The Opener: Correa, Rodon, Trade Market

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Fresh off the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. When will the Correa market heat up?

Now that Xander Bogaerts is in San Diego and Trea Turner is in Philadelphia — both on 11-year contracts — Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last two stars standing on the free agent shortstop market. With Swanson’s market potentially held up due to Correa’s lingering presence on the market, it begs the question of when Correa will sign. So far, the Giants, Cubs, and incumbent Twins appear to be Correa’s top suitors, while the Dodgers are known to be out of the Correa market. Correa’s market was likely being held up, to some extent, by San Francisco’s pursuit of Aaron Judge, but his market has remained fairly quiet since Judge agreed to a nine-year deal with the Yankees last week. It’s worth noting that in previous offseasons, agent Scott Boras has frequently been willing to allow negotiations for his top clients to stretch well into the new year in order to ensure they receive the best possible offer.

2. Rodon stands alone

With Kodai Senga set to pitch in Queens next season, the top pitcher on the market, Carlos Rodon, stands as not only the last remaining ace on the free agent market, but also the youngest option available, having just celebrated his 30th birthday over the weekend. The incumbent Giants could be moving on from Rodon, based on their late-night deal with Sean Manaea. Rodon, who is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, still has plenty of rumored options available. The Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, and Blue Jays have all been mentioned as having interest in Rodon, while the Cardinals may be entering the market for the ace as well. The Mets and Rangers were previously known to have interest in Rodon, as well. However, the Mets have agreed to deals with three starters (Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Senga), while the Rangers have since signed both Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. It’s possible neither is aggressively pursuing Rodon at this point. With the rest of the top pitching market largely decided, Rodon may be the next domino to fall at the top of the free agent market this offseason. Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi are among the best alternative options available for teams in need of pitching who don’t land Rodon.

3. How long will the trade market stay dormant?

This year’s Winter Meetings saw a bonanza of activity on the free agent market, with over $2 billion in spending on free agents. That activity masked a trade market that’s been very quiet this offseason, and figures to heat up now that so many free agents have come off the board. The trade market is particularly flush with catchers, as Oakland has made Sean Murphy available while Toronto has fielded interest on their catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. There’s also a fair number of rumors on the outfield market, with Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade from the Pirates, the Twins drawing some interest in Max Kepler, and the Diamondbacks listening on their surplus of outfield talent. Elsewhere on the market, the Reds are reportedly interested in dealing some of their surplus of infield prospects for outfield prospects, while the Marlins are known to be entertaining offers on much of their pitching staff, including Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers. As teams begin to exhaust payroll space and as the supply of impact free agents continues to dwindle, trade talks figure to escalate.

Reds Looking To Trade Shortstop Prospects For Outfield Prospects

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Reds general manager Nick Krall has said that his team has at least looked into some trades that would involve the Reds and another club swapping young, controllable players.  Providing further detail to Krall’s comments, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears from a rival executive that Cincinnati is looking to acquire a young outfielder in exchange for a younger shortstop prospect, and that the Reds “are aggressively pursuing” such deals.

Over the last year, the Reds turned into rebuild mode by trading multiple veteran players (i.e. Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley) in order to reduce payroll and restock the system with minor league talent.  On paper, the early steps of this plan have worked quite nicely — back in August, Baseball America placed the Reds fifth in their rankings of each organization’s minor league talent depth.  Both BA and MLB Pipeline have five Cincinnati prospects listed in their current top-100 rankings, with shortstop Elly De La Cruz sitting at the top of the pile.  Pipeline has De La Cruz as the 14th-best prospect in the sport, with Baseball America placing De La Cruz 20th.

With De La Cruz as the crown jewel, the Reds already had a good amount of infield prospect depth even before their moves at this past summer’s trade deadline.  Cincy landed Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo from the Mariners in the Castillo trade, and Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were then acquired from the Twins as part of the Mahle deal.  Marte and Arroyo both sit firmly within the top 100 rankings (Pipeline has Marte 17th, not far behind De La Cruz), while Steer already made his MLB last season and is likely headed for more regular playing time in 2023.

Steer is more of a second baseman or third baseman than a shortstop, and Encarnacion-Strand is more firmly a corner infielder.  It also remains to be seen if Marte will necessarily remain at shortstop, or if De La Cruz might even be moved to a outfield role — as Rosenthal notes, the Reds have been experimenting with several of their young infielders at various positions around the diamond and on the grass to try and find playing time for everyone.

That said, while some of these prospects may eventually wind up in the outfield in the future, the Reds seem interested in simplifying the matter and dealing from their infield surplus to find some true outfielders.  Adding to the intrigue is that many of Cincinnati’s prospects are knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, as De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand, and 2021 first-rounder Matt McLain could all get their first cup of coffee in the Show in 2023.

With high-caliber prospects to offer, the Reds can explore plenty of possible trade options around the league.  In regards to their focus on outfielders, the Diamondbacks seem like a logical trade partner, and Cincinnati is naturally one of the many clubs interested in the group of Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, and Dominic Fletcher.  All of these players except Fletcher have already debuted in the majors, and since the D’Backs are prioritizing players who can help them immediately, Arizona might prefer a more established player rather than another up-and-comer from Cincy’s farm system.

It is probably safe to assume that whatever trades the Reds consider, their blue chip prospects are less likely to be on the move, and a burgeoning star like De La Cruz is virtually untouchable.  A month away from his 21st birthday, De La Cruz has quickly gone from being an anonymous international signing to one of baseball’s top prospects over the last two seasons, and even a possible five-tool talent.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently spoke with minor league players, coaches, broadcasters and scouts about De La Cruz, and the shortstop garnered rave reviews across the board.  According to one AL scout, “He’s the most athletic player I’ve ever seen.  I could throw out some legendary names of athletes, but I’d rather not because I don’t want to put extra pressure on a kid.  But I’ve never seen anybody even close with his athleticism to be quite honest.”

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