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Manny Machado Trade Rumors: Friday

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5:45pm: If the O’s are to strike an early deal involving Machado, it seems they may not be able to do so with the Phillies. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, via Twitter, the Philadelphia organization has “moved on from Machado for now, as [the] Orioles’ asking price is too high.” Of course, a change of heart on either side could take place at any moment, so there’s no reason to think the match is off the table at this early stage of the summer trade period.

12:38pm: Though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” this week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that teams still aren’t offering anything close to what the Orioles are hoping to obtain for Machado. That sounds like a similar situation to the one Baltimore encountered in the offseason, when its front office sought a pair of MLB-ready rotation pieces in exchange for the final year of Machado’s contract but could not find a taker at that exorbitant price tag.

Controllable pitching has reportedly been among the Orioles’ top priorities once again, and they’re also said to be interested in landing some type of replacement for Machado in the infield. But, with Machado set to hit free agency at season’s end, extracting multiple MLB-ready assets from a rival club is a difficult, if not borderline unrealistic goal for the Orioles.

As Crasnick notes, the rental market, in general, has proven less fruitful for sellers in recent seasons, and talented as Machado may be, he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. While many fans have wishfully speculated about negotiating windows and extension scenarios that could prevent Machado from reaching the market, the reality is that he’s going to explore free agency in search of a record-setting contract this winter.

[Related: MLBTR Poll — Which Team Will Land Manny Machado?]

To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote yesterday that the Phillies would be reluctant to part with either top prospect Sixto Sanchez or big league right-hander Zach Eflin in order to acquire Machado. While Eflin’s success in the Majors is limited — he struggled greatly in 2017 — he’s looked legitimately impressive through 63 2/3 frames so far in 2018. In 11 starts, Eflin has a 2.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. His 2.90 FIP helps to support that ERA, and he’s sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate (10.8 percent) and average fastball velocity (94.2 mph). Eflin has moved away from his two-seamer/sinker in favor of a vast increase in four-seam fastballs and sliders, and the results, to this point, have been outstanding.

Morosi also discusses potential reluctance on Atlanta’s behalf, though it’s not clear what prompts the specific scenarios he explores; the Braves haven’t been rumored to have significant interest in Machado — to the contrary, they’re rumored to have limited funds available — and Morosi’s specification of Ian Anderson and Max Fried appears to be a purely speculative package which one source deemed too rich. (For that matter, it’s unclear why the column focuses solely on the NL East.) That shouldn’t come as any real surprise, given that the O’s weren’t able to acquire to arms of that caliber for a full season of Machado this past offseason and are now marketing just two to three months of his talents.

Meanwhile, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers have “checked in” on Machado, largely echoing Rosenthal’s previous assessment that the Brew Crew has done “due diligence” on Machado but isn’t likely to meet the Orioles’ asking price. That meshes with today’s report from Heyman, who cites a person “with Brewers ties” in stating that the Brewers check in on virtually every player available (as one would expect from contending clubs).

Perhaps more interestingly, Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently endeavored to see just what exactly can be made of the metrics that suggest Machado’s defense at shortstop to be so unsightly (subscription link). In an excellent exploration of Machado’s glovework, Sarris notes that Machado’s season at shortstop rates among the worst ever recorded by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating. However, UZR doesn’t include plays on which a defender is shifted to the opposite side of second base. Beyond that, 80 percent of the balls hit to Machado this season have been routine plays that are made 90 to 100 percent of the time, and Machado, accordingly has converted about 97 percent of those plays.

Subtracting the given outs and the shift plays, Sarris concludes that data suggesting Machado has been a historically bad defender is based on a matter of roughly 56 plays — and that small of a sample may not be a fair means of judging a player who is re-acclimating himself to a position he hasn’t played this frequently in more than a half-decade. Of course, there’s little evidence to suggest that Machado has been an especially good (or even average) shortstop, either, but the extent of his deficiencies remains difficult to accurately evaluate.

East Notes: Ramos, Phillies, Wade

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Here are the latest notes from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times checks in on Rays catcher Wilson Ramos, writing that the veteran seems likely to be playing elsewhere within the next few weeks. The burly receiver acknowledges that change is likely coming, though he says his focus is on putting his head down and “trying to do my job.” Topkin notes that there’s at least an argument to be made for the Rays to consider an early deal for Ramos, as there are a few other catchers that could potentially change hands this summer. A deal seems possible at any time, though we haven’t really heard all that much to this point regarding interest in Ramos, who’s slashing a robust .291/.340/.468 with a dozen home runs through 285 plate appearances.
  • There are a pair of interesting subscription pieces in The Athletic regarding the rising Phillies. Matt Gelb examines the team’s approach to the deadline, explaining how the changing state of affairs in the NL East — particularly, the recent fall-off of the Nationals — will impact things in Philadelphia. With the Nats now needing to climb out of a significant hole, the opportunity for the Phils to take a division title could certainly increase the appeal of buy-side moves. As the article covers, third base and right field stand out as potential areas for improvement. The club could certainly always look into pitching improvements as well. Meanwhile, Meghan Montemurro documents the Phillies’ efforts to unearth talent in non-traditional countries. It’s all about maximizing limited available resources in the international realm, where the focus has long been on a few Latin American and Asian nations.
  • The Yankees will bring up Tyler Wade to take the roster spot created when Gleyber Torres hit the DL, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. Wade, 23, has struggled mightily in limited MLB action over the past two seasons. And he has not exactly knocked the cover off of the ball at Triple-A despite carrying good numbers there last year. As Curry notes (via Twitter), however, Wade has been much better in recent weeks. That said, the infielder likely won’t get much of a shot in his return to the majors, as Neil Walker figures to remain ahead of him on the depth chart at second base. Brandon Drury is also a potential option at second, though he has yet to play there in New York.

Phillies Acquire International Bonus Space From Cardinals For Elniery Garcia

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The Phillies announced today that they have acquired international bonus pool availability from the Cardinals. In exchange, lefty Elniery Garcia heads to the St. Louis organization.

While the value of the bonus availability isn’t known, it’ll obviously boost the Phils’ international spending capacity for the July 2nd signing period that just began. Having inked two qualified free agents, which cost $500K in international space apiece, the club only had $3,983,500 to work with at the outset.

On the other side of the ledger, it’s no surprise to see the Cards move some dollars. Owing to prior excess spending — no longer permitted under the new signing rules — the Cardinals are not permitted to use more than $300K on any given player in this year’s class.

As for Garcia, he has at times been viewed as a prospect of some note, even getting some organizational top-ten billing entering the 2017 campaign. But he sat out eighty games last year after testing positive for banned PED boldenone.

Since returning, the 23-year-old has not been quite as impressive. He did not thrive in the Arizona Fall League and has struggled this season in a repeat of the Double-A level. Through 42 1/3 innings in 2018, Garcia carries a 6.38 ERA with just 6.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.

Phillies Recently Scouted Nathan Eovaldi's Start

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  • Evaluators from the Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and Braves were on hand to watch Nathan Eovaldi’s Monday start for the Rays, MLB.com’s Bill Chastain writes.  Of course, several other players on the Rays or Marlins were also likely under observation, though Eovaldi represents an interesting low-cost option for teams in need of rotation help — of the teams listed, only the Cubs wouldn’t appear to be in need of starting pitching depth.  After missing all of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery and then missing time due to minor elbow surgery and a rib muscle strain at the beginning of this season, Eovaldi has returned to post a 3.92 ERA, 49.6% grounder rate, 7.6 K/9, and a minuscule 1.3 BB/9 rate over his first 41 1/3 frames.  He has received some significant help in the form of a .211 BABIP, a 79.6% strand rate and a .285 wOBA that is well under his .321 xwOBA, though ERA indicators (4.75 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) are largely in line with his real-world ERA.  Eovaldi is also averaging 97mph on his fastball.

Phillies Notes: Klentak On Deadline, Hamels Rumors

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Phillies GM Matt Klentak discussed his approach to the coming trade deadline with reporters including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. He emphasized a need “to understand how we got here and why we got here, and it’s because of our young players developing not only in the minor leagues, but at the major league level.” At the same time, he said he’ll be looking to “upgrade the team in the short term or long term via trade.” The Phils’ baseball ops point man indicated that he will indeed be willing to pursue pure rental options, though the organization will also need to “make sure that whatever trades we’re contemplating are appropriately balancing now with the future.”

  • It’s still unknown just how aggressive the Phillies will be in their first season of contention under the current front office regime. The club is one of the most interesting buy-side organizations to watch. Jon Heyman of Fancred dangles one intriguing possibility, tweeting that he’s “hearing some chatter” regarding the possible pursuit of Rangers lefty Cole Hamels. That said, Heyman also notes that he’s “unsure how serious the chatter is.” The long-time Philadelphia hurler is a clear trade candidate, though his big remaining guarantee, 2019 option, and 20-team no-trade protection figure to complicate things from the Rangers’ perspective. And it’s fair to wonder if the Phillies would set their sights on a more significant addition if they try to add to their rotation.

Manny Machado Trade Talks Have Reportedly Accelerated

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Though there’s still four weeks until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” in recent days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Orioles, according to Rosenthal, would prefer to move Machado “sooner rather than later,” as they can extract more in a trade if the acquiring team controls Machado for three months as opposed to two months.

To this point in the summer, the teams most connected to Machado have been the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Indians. The Brewers and Cubs have been more loosely tied to Machado on the rumor mill, though Rosenthal reports that while Milwaukee is doing its due diligence, the team is unlikely to meet Baltimore’s asking price.

That, it seems, could be true of the Phillies as well. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies should be considered “longshots” in the Machado trade sweepstakes. Zolecki writes that while the Phillies “love” Machado and plan to make a serious run at him in the offseason, the team doesn’t feel itself to be one piece away from a World Series. That, of course, makes it considerably more difficult to meet what is likely a rather lofty asking price from the O’s.

Rosenthal suggests that the D-backs and Indians could be the “most motivated” teams in the Machado market, and Zolecki, too, specifically lists the D-backs as a club likelier to acquire Machado than the Phillies.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers continue to “aggressively” pursue Machado, adding that the Orioles have been scouting L.A.’s system heavily and are particularly interested in Class-A Advanced right-hander Dustin May. There’d obviously be more at play than a mere one-for-one swap, but May, a third-round pick in 2016, is generally considered to be among the Dodgers’ more promising young arms. He’s off to a strong start in 2018 as well, having pitched to a 3.18 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate through 65 innings (12 starts).

Of course, there could still be other organizations involved in discussions. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that eight teams have had at least some engagement with the O’s regarding Machado within the past ten days. That would suggest that there are at least a few mystery teams hanging around the periphery of talks.

Phillies To Sign Ryan Goins

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The Phillies have signed infielder Ryan Goins to a minor-league pact, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll head to the team’s Triple-A affiliate.

Goins joined the Royals over the winter after wrapping up a five-year run with the Blue Jays. He ended up seeing 41 games of action before being designated for assignment, turning in a .226/.252/.313 slash in 120 turns with the bat.

While the thirty-year-old has long earned plaudits for his glovework, that offensive output is all too familiar. Goins is a .228/.274/.333 hitter through over fifteen-hundred MLB plate appearances.

Shane Victorino To Sign One-Day Contract, Retire As Member Of Phillies

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Shane Victorino hasn’t played since the 2015 season, but the 37-year-old has now formally announced his retirement as a player to Rob DeMello of KHON-TV (Twitter link with video). He’ll sign a one-day contract with the Phillies on Aug. 3 — the date of their Alumni Weekend — to retire as a member of the organization with which he established himself as a big leaguer, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Shane Victorino | Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

The “Flyin’ Hawaiian” will officially wrap up his career as a two-time World Series champion and one of the more notable success stories in the history of the Rule 5 Draft. Originally a sixth-round pick of the Dodgers back in 1999, Victorino was twice taken in the Rule 5 — first by the Padres in 2002 and again by the Phillies in 2004. While the Padres returned Victorino after a rough stretch of 86 plate appearances, the Phillies stuck with him and were handsomely rewarded for their faith.

Victorino went on to make two All-Star teams, win three Gold Gloves and hit a postseason grand slam off CC Sabathia in 2008 that will forever be remembered by Phillies fans. He batted .279/.345/.439 in total over parts of eight seasons with the Phils, hitting 88 homers, 181 doubles and 63 triples along the way. Victorino was also both prolific and efficient when it came to stealing bases, swiping 179 bags in 218 tries as a member of the Phillies (82.1 percent success rate).

Victorino’s time with the Phillies came to a close in 2012, when he was traded back to the Dodgers just prior to the non-waiver deadline on July 31. That swap didn’t bring about a return to the postseason for Victorino, but the three-year, $39MM contract he signed with the Red Sox in the subsequent offseason did.

While some raised an eyebrow at the contract given Victorino’s pedestrian 2012 season, he more or less justified the entire investment in year one of the deal by turning in one of his best seasons and playing a significant role in Boston’s 2013 World Series championship. Victorino hit .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers and 21 steals for the Sox that season while playing some of the best outfield defense in all of baseball as Boston’s primary right fielder. And while he didn’t have an overly productive postseason that year, his bases-clearing double against Michael Wacha in the decisive Game 6 and a later RBI single played a huge role in sealing the victory.

Over the next two seasons, Victorino’s bat faded, and his final big league appearances came during a short run with the Angels following a trade in July 2015. He went on to play with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016 but hasn’t suited up in either the Majors or the Minors since that May.

In the end, Victorino will retire as a lifetime .275/.340/.425 hitter over the course of 12 seasons and 5164 plate appearances at the game’s top level. He hit 108 homers, stole 231 bases, scored 731 runs and knocked in another 489 as a big leaguer, taking home three Gold Gloves, two All-Star nods and a pair of World Series rings. Baseball-Reference pegs his career at a strong 31.6 wins above replacement, while Fangraphs credited him with 29.6 WAR. Along the way, Victorino earned more than $65MM while staking a legitimate claim to being the best position player to ever hail from his home state. Congrats to the Flyin’ Hawaiian on a terrific career and what will surely be a fitting way to formally bring it to a close.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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International Notes: Twins, Phillies, Cardinals

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With the new international signing period set to begin tomorrow, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com has compiled some of the most pertinent details for fans interested in following the frenzy to come. As always, an international player is eligible to sign with any MLB team if he is 17, or will turn 17 by the end of the first year of his contract.  The Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics and Rays have the most money to spend during the upcoming year; each can spend $6,025,400 in the market. Eight teams (the Athletics, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds and White Sox) incurred the maximum penalty from overages during the previous signing period, and as such, those clubs will not be able to sign any individual player for greater than $300K. Sanchez also notes a few players who seem to already have agreements in place with MLB teams, though obviously those deals cannot become official until after midnight.

A few more notes on the international market headed into tomorrow…

  • The Twins look likely to land Venezuelan center fielder Misael Urbina, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports. Urbina should earn a bonus north of $1.5MM, but he’s not the only player who appears to have a deal in place with the club. Berardino adds that Dominican shortstop Felix Rosa and Venezuelan outfielder Alexander Pena seem likely to sign with Minnesota for about $200K apiece, pending the outcomes of their physicals. Baseball America ranks Urbina tenth on its international prospects list for the 2018-2019 signing period, noting his compact swing, high energy and intensity, and his above-average arm. Rosa and Pena both rank outside BA’s top 50.
  • Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports reports that the Phillies have deals in place with at least four international prospects, most notably Dominican hurler Starlyn Castillo. Castillo checks in at number 16 on Baseball America’s international prospects list, giving special credit to his physically mature frame and ability to touch 97 MPH on the radar gun even before his 16th birthday.
  • Without giving anything away in terms of specifics, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are expected to land an international prospect for a $300K bonus as early as tomorrow. Goold adds that the Redbirds have been connected to Cuban third baseman Malcolm Nunez, Venezuelan hurler Jesus Rojas, and Venezuelan catcher Diego Velasquez.
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