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Andrew Kittredge

Cardinals Interested In Re-Signing Andrew Kittredge

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Much of the focus on the Cardinals’ slate of offseason moves was on the team’s rebuilding of its rotation. Signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have all paid off to varying extents. One of the team’s less-heralded moves, however, has proven equally important for the 2024 season. The trade of infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios to the Rays in exchange for reliever Andrew Kittredge has been a win-win swap. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a .350 OBP and quality defense at multiple positions from Palacios. The Cards have benefited from one of the most consistent setup men in the National League. And while Kittredge is a free agent at season’s end, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team expects to talk to Kittredge about a new contract in the near future.

Kittredge, 34, is in his first full season back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but has shown little signs of rust following that arduous rehab. He pitched 11 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay late last season and has been one of the most heavily used relievers in baseball this season. His 66 appearances tie him for tenth in the sport, and his 63 relief innings are tied for 33rd among 173 qualified relievers.

Kittredge hasn’t simply provided volume, however. His 33 holds lead the National League and trail only Houston’s Bryan Abreu (35) for the MLB lead. He’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA, posting slightly better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Opponents have kept the ball on the ground at a 44.5% clip against him — again, a bit better than league-average.

It’s fair to suggest that Kittredge could be in for some regression, particularly as he enters what’ll be his age-35 season. His rate stats are all sharp, but none are elite. He’s benefited from a .257 average on balls in play that’s 35 points shy of his career mark, and he hasn’t exactly been a soft-contact savant; Statcast measures Kittredge with worse-than-average marks in hard-hit rate (40.9%, 31st percentile), barrel rate (9.1%, 22nd percentile) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph, 32nd percentile).

That said, Kittredge has always gotten by with middle-of-the-pack exit velocity and hard-hit marks — though this year’s spike in barrel rate is uncharacteristic. This year’s opponents’ chase rate, contact rate (both in the zone and off the plate) and swinging-strike rate are each right in line with his career marks as well. Kittredge has lost about a mile per hour off both his sinker and slider relative to his peak showing in 2021, but that season will likely stand out as the best of his career. Even if there’s some regression in store, Kittredge looks fully capable of posting a mid-3.00s ERA with quality rate stats across the board. This version of him is still unequivocally a valuable, effective reliever.

Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to look at recent precedent, there aren’t many multi-year deals for relievers beginning in their age-35 season or later — particularly non-closing relievers. Teams are increasingly wary to commit to players in their mid-to-late 30s, and relievers are of course notably volatile. Chris Martin’s two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox is the top deal for setup men in this age bracket over the past three years; his contract began in his age-37 season. Veterans like Collin McHugh (two years, $10MM with the Braves) and Ryan Brasier (two years, $9MM with the Dodgers) have also commanded multi-year pacts. Kittredge has a steadier track record than Brasier. He throws considerably harder than McHugh did at the time of his contract in Atlanta. A two-year deal between the McHugh and Martin figures could make sense for both parties, speculatively speaking.

If the Cardinals succeed in keeping Kittredge in St. Louis, they’ll keep a late-inning corps that’s been a strength together for the 2025 season. Closer Ryan Helsley is controllable through 2025. Fellow setup men JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez (a very nice Rule 5 find) are under club control through 2026 and 2029, respectively.

Cardinals Hoping To Retain Paul Goldschmidt Beyond 2024

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In a recent chat with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch discussed the futures of a handful of pending free agents on the Cardinals roster. Most notable among them is seven-time All Star and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who Goold noted the club would talk with after the season “about what a return looks like.” Goold went on to compare the situation with Goldschmidt to the one the club experienced with longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright late in his career, when Goold notes the club allowed him to reach free agency before finalizing a previously agreed-upon deal.

That framing of the situation indicates that there’s a strong mutual interest in Goldschmidt’s stay in St. Louis extending beyond this season. The veteran first baseman, 37 next month, has spent the last six years with the Cardinals after arriving in St. Louis in a trade that brought his tenure with the Diamondbacks to an end one year before he would’ve otherwise been scheduled to reach free agency. While Goldschmidt’s thirties with the Cardinals haven’t been quite as productive as his twenties in Arizona, he’s still be among the games most reliable offensive talents with a .286/.373/.500 slash line (138 wRC+) with St. Louis entering the 2024 campaign.

Given his consistency at the plate and his still-recent MVP campaign in 2022, Goldschmidt entered the 2024 season looking as though he might be one of the offseason’s most attractive offensive talents despite his advanced age. A difficult 2024 campaign has changed that, however, as the veteran has hit just .228/.288/.384 (91 wRC+) in 110 games this season. Age-related decline becomes a concern for most any player as their career advances into their mid-to-late thirties, and for Goldschmidt to have the first below-average offensive season of his career at age 36 surely sets off alarm bells for some interested clubs.

Given Goldschmidt’s struggles this year, it’s easy to see how a reunion could make the most sense for all sides. After all, the Cardinals lack a clear heir to Goldschmidt at first base among their corps of young hitters, which is populated primarily by middle infield and outfield options. Luken Baker is the only first baseman on the 40-man roster controlled for the 2025 season, and the 27-year-old has yet to appear in the big leagues this year after a 33-game cup of coffee in 2023 where he struck out at a 31.3% clip and mustered a wRC+ of just 79. Retaining Goldschmidt would allow the club to keep a respected and decorated veteran who has had success in the recent past in the fold while they sort out long-term options at first base.

Meanwhile, a reunion would offer Goldschmidt a comfortable and familiar place to try and bounce back in 2025 with an organization that has stuck by him as their everyday first baseman even amid his hitting woes this season. It’s also worth noting that there’s some reason for optimism regarding Goldschmidt baked into his more recent performance this season. After an ice cold start to the season where he posted a paltry .530 OPS in 37 games, Goldschmidt has bounced back somewhat with a more respectable .247/.294/.446 in his last 316 trips to the plate. That figure is good for an above average wRC+ of 108.

Setting aside Goldschmidt, Goold goes on to suggest that there’s at least two other pending free agents the Cardinals could explore reunions with this winter: relievers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. Of the two, Goold seems to imply that a reunion with Middleton is more likely, adding that there’s “mutual interest” in working out a deal with the 30-year-old who has missed the entire 2024 campaign due to season-ending flexor tendon surgery.

The Cardinals hold a $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout on Middleton’s services for the 2025 campaign, but after the righty missed his first year with the club it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see St. Louis brass decline that option in hopes of re-signing Middleton to a smaller guarantee. The righty posted a 3.38 ERA in 51 games with the White Sox and Yankees last year and was particularly impressive during his time in the Bronx, when he pitched to a 1.88 ERA and struck out 30.4% of opponents. As for Kittredge, the 34-year-old righty has performed solidly in his first season with the club with a 3.12 ERA with a 4.19 FIP in 49 innings of work and will likely be eyeing a raise over the $2.263MM salary he’s earned in his final trip through arbitration this year.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals Swap Richie Palacios To Rays For Andrew Kittredge

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The Rays and Cardinals got together on a swap this afternoon that sent outfielder Richie Palacios to Tampa and right-hander Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported that the sides were in talks regarding the two players, while The Athletic’s Katie Woo first reported that the deal between the two sides was complete.

Kittredge, 34 in March, was a 45th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2008 but didn’t make his big league debut until 2017 as a member of the Rays. After riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors in the first two seasons of his career, Kittredge earned a more permanent role with the club in 2019, when he pitched to a 4.17 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 49 2/3 innings of work across 37 appearances. Kittredge was relied upon for both single-inning and multi-inning relief appearances while acting as both an opener and a late-inning arm for the club throughout the season. Kittredge went on to impress early in the shortened 2020 campaign with a 2.25 ERA, but saw his season limited to just eight appearances by a UCL sprain.

Kittredge elected free agency following the 2020 season but re-signed with the Rays on a minor league deal shortly thereafter and wound up turning in a dominant 2021 season. Kittredge pitched 71 2/3 across 57 appearances and kept his ERA at a sparkling 1.88 figure during the time. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced while walking just 5.3% and maintaining a strong 53.5% groundball rate. Kittredge’s ERA was third in the majors behind only Jacob deGrom and Ranger Suarez among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work that season, easily earning him the first All Star appearance of his career.

Unfortunately for both the Rays and Kittredge, much of his time has been spent on the injured list since that phenomenal 2021 campaign. He dealt with back tightness early in the 2022 campaign before undergoing Tommy John surgery that June and didn’t return to the majors until mid-August. In 31 appearances between the 2022 and ’23 campaigns, Kittredge performed solidly despite the circumstances with a 3.13 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. With that being said, some of the veteran righty’s peripherals took a turn for the worse during that time. The righty’s groundball rate dipped to just 42.7% during that time while his strikeout rate sank to 19.2%.

Even so, the addition of Kittredge offers the Cardinals a veteran arm with late inning experience to supplement the back of their bullpen, which currently features Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, and JoJo Romero. Gallegos suffered a down season in 2023 while Helsley and Romero combined for just 73 1/3 innings of work, leaving plenty of uncertainty surrounding the group headed into 2024. While Kittredge has some question marks himself, he provides another quality arm with a track record of success in the majors: since he became a regular fixture in the Tampa bullpen back in 2019, Kittredge owns a 2.85 ERA and 3.43 FIP across 161 innings of work. For a Cardinals club that had made bullpen upgrades and explicit goal this offseason, adding Kittredge could go a long way to achieving that objective.

In exchange for Kittredge’s services, the Cardinals are giving up Palacios. The club acquired the 26-year-old outfielder from the Guardians in a cash deal back in June and the youngster took off in 32 games with St. Louis, slashing .258/.307/.516 in 102 trips to the plate in the majors while posting a .299/.418/.459 slash line in 195 Triple-A plate appearances with the organization. The offensive outburst from Palacios was relatively unexpected, as he had struggled to a .232/.293/.286 slash line with the Guardians in 2022 and mustered just a .217/.351/.318 line in 56 Triple-A games prior to the trade.

Clearly, the Rays are betting that Palacios unlocked a new level during his time in St. Louis. If he can hit at an above-average clip in the majors, the lefty-swinging youngster could provide the Rays with an outfield bat to fill the void left by Luke Raley, who the club swapped to Seattle earlier today. It’s even possible he could chip in at second base, where he has spent 920 1/3 innings in the minors (though he’s only made three appearances there at the big league level), alongside Brandon Lowe.

Tantalizing as the upside Palacios flashed last season was, however, it seems unlikely he would’ve been able to garner more than a bench role in St. Louis due to the club’s deep outfield mix and the presence of both Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman at the keystone. The lack of a clear role for Palacios in St. Louis and Kittredge’s lack of additional team control beyond 2024 make this swap a relatively low-cost gamble for both sides that could pay significant dividends in 2024 (and, in the case of the Rays and Palacios, beyond).

Rays Designate Hector Perez For Assignment, Activate Andrew Kittredge

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The Rays announced Thursday that they’ve designated right-hander Hector Perez for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to fellow righty Andrew Kittredge, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Perez, 27, was only selected to the big league roster yesterday — a move intended to give the Rays a fresh arm in the bullpen. With Kittredge’s return looming, a short stay on the roster for the out-of-options righty always seemed like a possibility. That Perez pitched in yesterday’s game and allowed four of the five batters he faced to reach base surely didn’t help his cause. Yesterday’s appearance marked Perez’s second career big league stint, though his other — a 2020 cup of coffee in Toronto — was similarly brief. The Jays gave him 1 2/3 innings back in 2020, during which he allowed a pair of runs.

All told, Perez has completed just two innings in the Major Leagues and allowed three runs on six hits and four walks with one strikeout in that time. He has a career 3.78 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate in the minors, however, including a 4.08 ERA and 30% strikeout rate (albeit against a 13% walk rate) in 53 innings at the Triple-A level so far in 2023. Players who’ve been designated for assignment can no longer be traded now that the deadline has passed, so Perez will be placed on outright waivers or release waivers within the next five days. He’s been outrighted previously in his career, so he can refuse a minor league assignment and explore other opportunities if he goes unclaimed on outright waivers.

The 33-year-old Kittredge will be returning from a 14-month absence following last June’s Tommy John surgery. Prior to his injury, he’d emerged as one of Tampa Bay’s best relievers, pitching to a 2.17 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, 51.9% ground-ball rate and 0.99 homers per nine over the life of 99 2/3 innings from 2020-22. Along the way, he picked up 14 saves and seven holds.

Kittredge’s return is a massive boost for the Rays’ bullpen, but it won’t do much to stop the bleeding in a rotation that has now lost Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending surgeries. Rasmussen underwent flexor surgery earlier this season, while both Springs and McClanahan required Tommy John procedures to repair ligament damage in their elbow. The still-recent revelation that McClanahan would require Tommy John surgery is a particularly brutal blow, given both his status as a legitimate No. 1 starter and the timing of the injury; he’ll likely miss the entire 2024 season as well (or at the very least the vast majority of it).

Kittredge will join Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam and Colin Poche as a viable late-inning option for manager Kevin Cash. He’s also no stranger to working as an opener, if the Rays prefer to opt for some bullpen games in light of their injury woes. Kittredge has “started” 15 games in his career but never gone more than three innings. He’s frequently worked two innings to open a game for the Rays. Currently, Tampa Bay’s rotation consists of Tyler Glasnow, offseason signee Zach Eflin, deadline acquisition Aaron Civale and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Manoah, Bader, Fleming, Kittredge

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The Red Sox are looking to acquire an infielder who can play multiple positions, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam writes, with a focus on the middle infield.  McAdam notes that Aledmys Diaz’s name has “been linked to the Red Sox,” though it isn’t clear how deep talks might be between the Sox and Athletics.  Diaz is struggling through a tough season (.208/.266/.264 over 173 plate appearances) but he is also an experienced player who could help a Boston infield that is still trying to figure itself out, particularly at shortstop until Trevor Story is healthy.  That said, Diaz’s contract is hefty enough that he would be more than a stopgap, as Diaz is owed roughly $4.1MM for the rest of this season and then $8MM in 2024.  The A’s are naturally looking to unload salary and might eat some of that money, but one would imagine the Sox might explore cheaper options if they truly only want a short-term option.

The Sox could possibly also be dangling an infielder in trade talks as the deadline approaches, if the team wants to move on from Bobby Dalbec.  The former top prospect was already the subject of trade speculation over the winter, and Triston Casas seems to have supplanted Dalbec as Boston’s next first baseman of the future.  Back at Triple-A for much of this season, Dalbec is posting big numbers, and a scout told McAdam that “I thought he looked much more confident at the plate, with more of a plan.”  That said, the scout has a modest view of Dalbec’s trade value, saying “my guess is, he’s only a second piece in a (larger) deal, or the only piece for an average bullpen arm or some infield depth.’”

Some more from around the AL East…

  • Alek Manoah threw 75 pitches during a simulated game on Friday, and is slated for another sim game later this week.  Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters on Friday that “everything that we were talking about in terms of delivery and stuff [for Manoah] was good, so making some good strides in the right direction.”  A proper minor league rehab game could follow the next simulating outing, meaning that Manoah could be back with the Jays by July 1 if all goes well, though the plan is still quite fluid given the unusual nature of Manoah’s situation.  The third-place finisher in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Manoah posted a 6.36 ERA over his first 58 innings this season, pitching so poorly that the Blue Jays optioned him to their Florida complex in order to fully explore what has gone awry.
  • Harrison Bader is slated to be activated from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters.  The initial aim was for Bader to return this weekend, but the outfielder requested a couple of extra minor league rehab games in order to better test his injured hamstring.  Bader gave Boone a positive report via text message last night, so everything seems lined up for Tuesday when the Yankees host the Mariners.  Between an oblique strain and his hamstring strain, Bader has been limited to 26 games this season, and his return will be a huge boost to a New York outfield that is still missing Aaron Judge.
  • Rays manager Kevin Cash updated reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) on some injured player, including Josh Fleming and Andrew Kittredge.  Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to elbow soreness, but the good news is that it doesn’t appear surgery will be required, as Cash said that the left-hander will continue to rehab without going under the knife.  Kittredge had a Tommy John surgery just over a year ago, but he will throw a live batting practice this week in the latest phase of his rehab.  Kittredge is expected to return to the Rays sometime in August, while Fleming’s 60-day IL placement means that August 3 would be the earliest date for a possible return.

Rays Select Trevor Kelley, Place Andrew Kittredge On 60-Day IL

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Trevor Kelley, who signed a minor league deal over the winter and has been in camp as a non-roster invitee. A spot on the 40-man roster has been opened by placing fellow right-hander Andrew Kittredge on the 60-day injured list.

Tampa Bay originally made this move earlier in camp, but the league stepped in and voided the deal, as non-roster invitees are technically not eligible to be selected to the 40-man roster until March 15. Now that the transaction is permissible under that technicality, it can be processed as originally planned.

The 30-year-old Kelley has seen big league time in parts of three seasons with the Red Sox, Phillies and Brewers dating back to 2019. Most of that time in the big leagues has been a struggle, including the 2022 season, when he logged a career-high 23 2/3 innings for the Brewers but also served up a 6.08 ERA. Kelley posted a below-average 21.5% strikeout rate and a solid 8.4% walk rate with Milwaukee, but home runs were an issue last year. That’s been a recurring theme for Kelley, who has averaged a whopping 2.8 long balls per nine innings pitched (11 homers in 35 1/3 big league frames).

While Kelley’s big league numbers aren’t much to look at, that’s a relatively small sample and he’s thrived at the Triple-A level. In 164 1/3 innings there, he sports a 1.81 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. He has a minor league option remaining as well, so the Rays don’t need to expose him to waivers if they wish to send him down at any point. That’ll give their bullpen some flexibility this season, and Kelley’s sidearm delivery can give opponents an additional look out of the bullpen.

Kelley surely felt some pressure after the original transaction was voided, as a spring injury or poor performance over the first few weeks of camp might have changed the team’s thinking. He’s given the Rays no reason to doubt their faith in him, however, pitching 5 1/3 innings of shutout ball with just three hits and two walks against six punchouts thus far.

Because he has a minor league option left, Kelley isn’t a lock to break camp in the big league bullpen, but even if he heads to Triple-A Durham to begin the season, his presence on the 40-man roster will make him one of the team’s top options should they need to dip into the minors. If he does establish himself in their bullpen, he’ll be a long-term option. Kelley is four days shy of a full year of MLB service time, meaning he’s still controllable for a full six seasons.

As for Kittredge, he was one of the Rays’ top relievers, pitching to a 2.17 ERA in 99 2/3 innings dating back to 2020. However, the 32-year-old was limited to just 20 innings this past season, as a June IL placement due to discomfort in his right elbow ultimately proved a precursor to Tommy John surgery. It’s possible he’ll make it back to the big leagues at some point in the season’s second half, but there’s no way Kittredge was going to be ready within the season’s first couple months, so moving him to the 60-day IL amounts to little more than a formality. If the Rays need another 40-man roster spot, they can do the same with right-hander Shane Baz, who’s also on the mend from Tommy John surgery.

Rays Void Prior Selection Of Trevor Kelley’s Contract

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Feb. 17: The Rays have voided yesterday’s transaction selecting Kelley to the 40-man roster and transferring Kittredge to the 60-day injured list, tweets Neil Solondz of Rays Radio. Voiding the transaction is largely a technicality; the league flagged the transaction, citing a rule that non-roster invitees are ineligible to be selected to the 40-man roster until March 15. The move can still formally be processed at that time. It’s surely discouraging for Kelley, however, as he’ll now be exposed to some injury or performance-based risk over the next month that wouldn’t have been the case had he been immediately added to the 40-man roster.

Feb. 16: The Rays announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Trevor Kelley, who’d been in camp on a minor league deal. Fellow righty Andrew Kittredge, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggested earlier that Kelley could be selected to the 40-man roster sooner than later.

Kelley, 30, has seen Major League time with the Red Sox, Phillies and Brewers but has yet to find much big league success. He tallied a career-high 23 2/3 innings with Milwaukee last season but also was knocked around to the tune of a 6.08 ERA. The sidearmer posted a below-average 21.5% strikeout rate but a solid 8.4% walk rate. Home runs have been a major issue for Kelley, however, evidenced by a whopping 11 round-trippers surrendered in just 35 1/3 MLB frames (2.8 HR/9).

Those big league struggles notwithstanding, Kelley possesses an exceptional 1.81 ERA in a much larger sample of 164 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He’s also punched out 25.7% of his opponents there against an 8.7% walk rate. Kelley has a minor league option remaining as well, so he’ll give the Rays some flexibility with their bullpen. He’s not yet up to a year of MLB service, so if the Rays can coax some of that Triple-A performance out at the Major League level, the Rays can control him for as many as six seasons.

As for Kittredge, he was one of the Rays’ top relievers, pitching to a 2.17 ERA in 99 2/3 innings dating back to 2020. However, the 32-year-old Kittredge was limited to just 20 innings this past season, as a June IL placement due to discomfort in his right elbow ultimately proved a precursor to Tommy John surgery. It’s possible he’ll make it back to the big leagues at some point in the season’s second half, but there’s no way Kittredge was going to be ready within the season’s first couple months, so moving him to the 60-day IL amounts to little more than a formality. If the Rays need another 40-man roster spot, they can do the same with right-hander Shane Baz, who’s also on the mend from Tommy John surgery.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

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