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Carlos Carrasco

Latest On Indians’ Top Starters

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The Yankees and Mariners pulled off a blockbuster trade on Monday, when New York sent three prospects – including left-hander Justus Sheffield – to Seattle for southpaw James Paxton.  But before that deal went down, there was a possibility of the Yankees returning Sheffield to the Indians, his first professional organization.

Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did. According to Hoynes, Cleveland still likes Sheffield, whom it chose in the first round of the 2014 draft but later traded to the Yankees in a 2016 deal headlined by reliever Andrew Miller. Still, it’s no surprise that the Tribe elected against trading any of its ace-caliber starters to reunite with the 22-year-old Sheffield.

If Cleveland’s going to move Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, Hoynes relays that it’ll need to receive a return that would unquestionably help the club stay atop the American League Central, a division it has won three years in a row. Conversely, the Mariners don’t figure to contend in 2019, so they were more willing to accept a future-oriented package for Paxton. In addition to the well-regarded Sheffield, Paxton brought back a pair of non-elite prospects in righty Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.

Even if the Indians were to subtract one of Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, starting pitching wouldn’t be a weak point for the club, as it also counts Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Danny Salazar and Triston McKenzie among its rotation possibilities. The team’s outfield is an obvious concern, on the other hand, and as Kyle Downing of MLBTR pointed out in previewing the Indians’ offseason, it would make more sense for a Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer trade to net them a cheap, controllable solution in that area.

If the Indians do part with any of their three right-handed stars this offseason, each would warrant a greater return than Paxton. The Big Maple, who’s down to his final two years of arbitration eligibility, hasn’t been as durable as any member of Cleveland’s trio. There’s also a rather strong case to be made that he simply isn’t as good as Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer.

Few have been able to combine dominance and durability like the 32-year-old Kluber dating back to his 2014 breakout. The two-time AL Cy Young winner also comes with up to three years of team control. Kluber’s due $17MM next year, and after that, his employer will have decisions to make on a $17.5MM club option in 2020 and an $18MM option in ’21. Barring major injury issues or a noticeable downturn in performance, those options will be exercised.

Like Paxton, both Carrasco and Bauer have two years of team control left. Carrasco will earn $9MM in 2019 and perhaps another $9.5MM by way of a club option in 2020, though that figure could increase based on AL Cy Young voting. Bauer’s future salaries are less certain than his two teammates’, but he’s projected to earn an affordable sum – $11.6MM – in his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although the 27-year-old doesn’t yet have the long-term track record of Kluber or Carrasco, Bauer may have been better than both of them in 2018, when he logged a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 in 175 1/3 innings.

It’s unclear whether the Indians will trade any of their three No. 1 starters in the coming months, but their futures will undoubtedly be among the majors’ most interesting storylines this offseason. Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer, along with Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Madison Bumgarner (Giants) and free agents Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, appear to be the best starters who have at least some chance to end up on the move prior to the 2019 campaign.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.

Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

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With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

  • Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
  • There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
  • So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
  • Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
  • We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.

Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks

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What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).

Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …

  • The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
  • The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
  • Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
  • Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
  • Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
  • Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.

Indians “Will Listen” To Trade Proposals On Key Veterans

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The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups.

Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars.

Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips.

Importantly, and unsurprisingly, the club’s two still-youthful, amply controllable stars — Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor — will remain off limits. There’s certainly little reason for the Indians even to contemplate moves involving those players, whose contract rights are among the most valuable in the entire sport.

The most interesting element of this report, undoubtedly, is the possibility of the Indians offering up some of their top-flight pitching talent. Kluber and Carrasco are both excellent pitchers, but they are also signed to highly appealing contracts. The former, a perennial Cy Young contender, can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $30.5MM (though his 2020 and 2021 options can rise in value based upon his Cy placement). The latter, who’s also a top-10 starter over the past three seasons, will pitch for just $9.75MM next and little more in 2020 (his option, too, can be boosted based on the voting).

There’s no specific mention of righty Trevor Bauer, who emerged to take a place alongside his more-accomplished rotation mates. He’s just as plausible a candidate to be moved from an outside perspective, though, given that he’s down to two more years of arbitration control. Bauer is the most youthful of the three, but doesn’t figure to be an extension candidate given his stated preference never to agree to a multi-year deal. Still, he’s projected to earn a bargain $11.6MM for 2019 with one more arb year to go thereafter.

Any of these three pitchers would be hotly pursued this winter, because there just aren’t many alternatives. As our recent Market Snapshot series discussed, the trade market doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of high-end pitching– at least at affordable rates of pay. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Madison Bumgarner do not appear particularly likely even to be discussed in trades. Zack Greinke is still good, but his remaining obligation of $95.5MM is more than it cost the Dodgers to retain Clayton Kershaw earlier today. Meanwhile, the free agent market has a few talented hurlers on offer, but that’ll entail long-term commitments and much greater financial risk.

For some organizations, the possibility of landing one of the Indians pitchers would be a dream scenario. Of course, there’s little question that the Cleveland organization will demand a princely sum. Given its near-term ambitions, far-away prospects likely won’t headline a deal. Instead, the Indians are sure to demand high-quality players that can step right into the lineup while also providing greater long-term value than the starters who’d be dealt. While the Indians may be willing to stake a bet on their ability to find good innings from within, at least sufficient to come out ahead of the divisional opponents, it’s hard to look past the fact that the American League features a few teams that have aggregated an awful lot of talent. Rolling the dice on other hurlers (Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Adam Plutko, Danny Salazar) could be a viable strategy, but only if the Indians can secure young players they truly believe in with a swap.

As for the other players on the Indians roster that could be moved, it seems reasonable to suppose that cost-savings would be a leading motivator. Encarnacion can still swing the bat, but he wouldn’t command his remaining obligation ($25MM, including a 2021 option buyout) on the open market. Gomes rebounded with the bat in 2018, but is earning a relatively hefty $7MM, plus $2MM in buyouts on a pair of options ($9MM and $11MM, respectively) that seem unlikely to be exercised. (Fellow backstop Roberto Perez also receives mention from Olney, though he’s much cheaper and his control runs further into the future. He also struggled notably in 2018.) No doubt the club would like to find a taker for some of the $17MM still owed Kipnis ($2.5MM of which is in a buyout), but other organizations would only stake so much on a rebound. First baseman Yonder Alonso ($8MM salary plus $1MM buyout on 2020 option) would also seem a hypothetical possibility.

All things considered, there are quite a few fascinating possibilities to consider. Elite young position-player talent and/or cost savings seem clearly to be in mind here for the Indians. It may require a bit of a tightrope walk to pull things off, but the market situation seems generally favorable to the attempt.

Indians Exercise Club Option Over Carlos Carrasco, Buy Out Brandon Guyer

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The Indians announced their club option decisions today, and didn’t have any surprises in store. Righty Carlos Carrasco will return at a $9.75MM price tag, while outfielder Brandon Guyer receives a $250K buyout rather than a $3MM salary.

There was never a thought that Cleveland would pass up a chance on retaining Carrasco at that rate. He’s controllable in 2020 as well under an option that’s priced just $500K higher than the 2019 version.

At those rates, the 31-year-old hurler is one of the game’s best bargains on the mound. He has turned in year after year of outstanding results, backed by compelling peripherals. Most recently, in 2018, he spun 192 frames of 3.38 ERA ball with 10.8 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

Guyer came up in the Cubs’ system after they drafted him in the 5th round of the 2007 draft. He made his big league debut with the Rays after they acquired him with Chris Archer and others in 2011’s Matt Garza swap with Chicago. The Indians acquired him from Tampa in August of 2016 for a pair of minor leaguers.

His usefulness is limited to the outfield corners versus left-handed pitching. For his career, he’s hit .273/.376/.449 with a 130 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but only .224/.297/.323 with a 74 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Last season, Guyer struggled in 104 games for the Indians, slashing .206/.300/.371. He’ll be 33-years-old at the start of 2019 season and is now a free agent. 

AL Notes: Salazar, Carrasco, Smoak, Didi

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Indians righty Danny Salazar is slated to begin throwing next month, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). At the moment, the club isn’t certain whether it’ll utilize the hurler as a starter or reliever, though it does sound as if the plan is to tender him a contract. Salazar will almost certainly command the same $5MM salary he did this year after sitting out all of 2018 with shoulder issues. That’s a decent bit of payroll to stake on a return to form, though Salazar has real upside on the mound and will also remain controllable for the 2020 season.

Here’s more from Cleveland and the rest of the American League …

  • Speaking of payroll planning, the Indians will need to budget for a slight boost to the salary for fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco. As Bastian notes on Twitter, the value on the club option in Carrasco’s extension rose by $750K (to $9.75MM) due to his fourth-place placement in the 2017 Cy Young voting. It’s not entirely clear from what’s known of Carrasco’s contract whether that prior voting performance also operates to boost the value of his 2020 option, which comes at a $9.5MM base price point.
  • It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays will have to open their wallets a bit wider to hang onto first baseman Justin Smoak. By virtue of topping 1,100 total plate appearances over the past two seasons, he has boosted his 2019 club option value from $6MM to $8MM. That still seems to be a reasonable rate of pay for a switch-hitter who has carried a .256/.353/.495 batting line and launched 63 home runs since the start of the 2017 campaign. Smoak could well profile as a trade candidate, depending upon how the Toronto front office decides to approach the offseason.
  • Elsewhere in the AL East, the Yankees face a tough question on a player entering his final season of control. Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team ought to strongly consider working out an extension with shortstop Didi Gregorius. Sherman wonders whether the recent Jean Segura contract (five years, $70MM plus option) might serve as a starting point in talks, rightly suggesting that it may well cost a bit more to lock up Gregorius. The 28-year-old is projected to earn $12.4MM in his final trip through arbitration and is a half-season closer to free agency than was Segura. He’s also fresh off of his best season, having posted a .268/.335/.494 slash with 27 home runs in 569 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances could also be considered for long-term deals, Sherman opines.

Indians Designate George Kontos, Activate Carlos Carrasco

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The Indians have designated righty George Kontos for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to starter Carlos Carrasco, who has been activated from the 10-day DL.

Kontos opened the year with the Pirates, but landed with the Cleveland organization after the Bucs cut him loose. He ended up making six appearances for the Indians. In his 25 total frames on the season, Kontos carries a 4.68 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.

That output is far shy of his prior work. Indeed, entering the season, Kontos had allowed 110 earned runs in 330 1/3 career MLB innings. He had seemingly found another gear in 2017, when he dwarfed his prior standard with 9.5 K/9 and a 16.4% swinging-strike rate. But those advances have not proven sustainable.

Indians Place Carlos Carrasco, Tyler Olson On 10-Day DL

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The Indians placed right-hander Carlos Carrasco and left-hander Tyler Olson on the 10-day disabled list today, as per a team press release.  Righties Shane Bieber and Evan Marshall have been recalled from Triple-A to fill the two spots on the 25-man roster, with Bieber starting today’s game against the Twins.

Carrasco is headed to the DL with what the team describes as a “right elbow contusion,” which would be a best-case scenario after Carrasco took a Joe Mauer line drive off his throwing elbow yesterday.  The 99.6mph liner forced Carrasco to leave the game, and he was scheduled to undergo x-rays this morning, though there aren’t yet any details on the results of those tests.

Cleveland has off-days this Thursday and on June 28, so it’s possible Carrasco could only miss one start if his injury isn’t serious and he spends the minimal amount of time on the DL.  The right-hander has been a big contributor to the Tribe’s rotation, posting a 4.24 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and 4.36 K/BB rate over 91 1/3 innings this season.  The ERA is a bit higher than Carrasco is used to over the last three seasons, though ERA predictors (3.40 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA) have a more favorable view of his performance.

Olson, meanwhile, has suffered a left lat strain.  The southpaw famously didn’t allow a single run over 22 innings (20 in the regular season, two in the playoffs) for Cleveland last season, though his 2018 has been much rockier, with a 7.27 ERA over 17 1/3 frames.  Olson is still missing bats to the tune of an 11.9 K/9, however, and while his 4.15 BB/9 is problematic, he has also faced a lot of bad luck in posting that ungainly ERA.  Olson isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact (his .306 xwOBA is well below his .365 wOBA), and he has an unusually low strand rate (just 54.6%) and a very high .378 BABIP.

With Olson out, veteran Oliver Perez is the only left-hander in the Indians pen, as Andrew Miller is still sidelined with knee inflammation.  Miller has been tossing bullpens in recent days, however, and is expected to at least be starting a rehab assignment relatively soon.

Central Notes: Moustakas, Indians, Cardinals

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Although Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas is an obvious trade candidate, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears (video link) that he’s unlikely to bring back much in a deal at his current pace. As Rosenthal points out, Moustakas’ offensive output has faded as the season has progressed, and the lefty-swinger has struggled all year against same-handed pitchers, who have limited him to a .224/.253/.353 line. He’s also due around $3MM after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. All of those factors figure to harm Moustakas’ value, Rosenthal posits. After hitting .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs in 598 plate appearances last year, Moustakas failed to generate much interest in free agency, leading him to re-sign with the Royals for a $6.5MM guarantee in early March. Three months later, he’s slashing an unremarkable .259/.314/.474 with 13 HRs through 296 trips to the plate.

More from the league’s Central divisions…

  • The Indians are awaiting word on right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who departed his start Saturday after a 99.6 mph line drive off the bat of the Twins’ Joe Mauer struck him in the pitching elbow. Carrasco left after 1 1/3 innings with what the team called a forearm contusion, though manager Terry Francona said afterward (via Joe Noga of cleveland.com) that he’s undergoing tests on his elbow to rule out further damage. “When you look inside a pitcher’s elbow, there’s a lot going on,” Francona said. “Right now, they said it was a contusion. The hope is that’s all it is. We’ll know more by late tonight.” Saturday continued a somewhat down year for Carrasco, who allowed four earned runs to lift his ERA to 4.24 (compared to 3.29 last season), though his secondary numbers paint a far more hopeful picture.
  • Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong is on track to come off the disabled list in early July, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports. DeJong, out since suffering a fractured left hand May 17, has been cleared to resume hitting and is aiming to take batting practice during the upcoming week. Meanwhile, injured reliever Dominic Leone has “turned the corner from uncertainty to progressing in the right direction,” according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Leone now looks likely to return this year, which wasn’t the case before, Goold notes. A nerve issue in Leone’s right biceps has kept him on the shelf since May 5.
  • The Indians’ Triple-A affiliate in Columbus announced that it has placed center fielder Bradley Zimmer on the DL, retroactive to June 14, with right shoulder discomfort. The injury continues a Murphy’s Law 2018 for Zimmer, who was on the major league DL earlier this season with a rib contusion and then was demoted to Triple-A on June 5 after limping to a .226/.281/.330 line in 114 PAs. He also hasn’t posed a threat in the minors this year, albeit over a mere 28 PAs, with a .148/.179/.259 line and 11 strikeouts against one walk.
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